It's going to be a great weekend for college football with plenty of huge matchups including Ohio State with Chip Kelly as OC returning to Eugene in a game that could decide the Big Ten. It will be the 120th version of the Red River Shootout but the first time as an SEC game. And #9 Ole Miss travels to Baton Rouge to play #13 LSU. Playing in Death Valley at night is never easy.

I plan to go to my local watering hole, grab a spot at the bar, pound some IPAs and just enjoy.

Looking at our betting strategies from last week:

​Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS.  Results – Texas A&M easily covered vs Mizzou 41-10 WIN

This week we have: 
​
#2 Ohio State -4.5 @ Oregon; #9 Ole Miss -2.5 @ LSU and  Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma I’m actually leaning towards going against the strategy this week and take the home teams in Oregon and LSU while taking Texas too.

James Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS when he's favored by 10 points or more. Along with Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS. I’m staying away from this one. UCLA is more of a cupcake than Illinois but I will pass.  I was right to avoid this stat again as Penn State won but did not cover the 4 TD spread vs the Bruins 27-11

Since 2021,Oregon State is 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country. Result - the Beavers needed OT to beat the Rams 39-31 LOSS 

Boise State is 20-1 SU and 17-3-1 ATS vs. Utah State since 1998, winning and covering seven in a row dating back to 2017. The Broncos have also won 11 consecutive home games SU vs the Aggies. Result – Boise torched USU - 62-30 WIN

Some others to look at: Wisconsin is 13-3-0 ATS vs Purdue ; Clemson is 13-5-0 vs Florida State; and Georgia is 13-6-0 vs Auburn. Results – Wiscy covered 52-6 WIN; Clemson covered 29-13 WIN; UGA did not cover 31-13 LOSS. The Bettors guide contains how the teams compare vs the spread going back to 2015. Handy information

This week’s candidates – Texas is 12-6-1 vs Oklahoma and Florida is 13-5-1 versus Tennessee. Mixed messages with Florida, given its a revenge game for Tennessee - see below. 

The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap. This weeks’ revenge games are – Tennessee -15.0 vs Florida; UL Monroe -6.5 vs Southern Miss; Texas State -14.5 vs Arkansas State; Maryland -10.0 vs Northwestern and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma. 

USC is 19-34-2 ATS (35.8%) in games played outside the PST zone, going 2-7 ATS since the start of 2021. USC lost outright even though favored 24-17 WIN

When the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. Nebraska beat Rutgers 14-7 to go way under 40.0 WIN

This week’s candidates - Boise State @ Hawaii; North Texas @ Florida Atlantic and San Diego State @ Wyoming

Going back to this stat Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020
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This week’s candidates Maryland -10 vs Northwestern; Illinois -19.5 vs Purdue and Missouri -27.5 @ UMass

The biggest game of the weekend is #2 Ohio State traveling to Eugene to play #3 Oregon. The Bucknuts have floundered in these situations. Since 2018, in Top 10 matchups, they are 6-13-1 ATS, covering just 2 of their last nine games in the spot. In top 5 matchups, Ohio State has lost three in a row SU and 4 of its last five overall. Do I hear choking against scUM in that stat?

Penn State loves the road too. The Nits are 14-4 ATS on the road dating back to 2020.

More bad news for Bama fans. Top-10 teams off a road loss as a 14+ pt favorites are 9-17 ATS the following game. They also go under at a 17-6-1 clip, This week Bama returns home as a 21.0 favorite over South Carolina.
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Another winning week as I went 4-3 plus the Point Whore Parlay cashed in and the Hold the Tables wager stayed perfect on the season. 

Here’s another TD worth of picks for Week 7

Illinois -19.0 vs Purdue – Leaning heavily on the revenge angle here. Also I like wagering against bad teams on the road. Purdue is bad.

Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma – Not only a revenge game but Texas has owned Oklahoma ATS. Also relying on - Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top 20 matchups are 31-22 ATS.
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Penn State -5.0 @ USC - USC struggled against Minnesota's defense. Penn State's is better. Over the last decade, USC is 5-25 SU and 10-20 ATS as an underdog. And Penn State is 14-4 ATS on the road.

Colorado State +1.5 vs San Jose State – CSU is healthy again and nearly took down Oregon State. San Jose State has squeezed by playing a joke of a schedule (136th) Colorado State HC Jay Norvell is 22-9 ATS (71%) as an underdog in Mountain West play

Ohio State @ Oregon Under 53.0 – Two elite defense with offenses that play at a slow pace (86th and 79th respectively). Duck QB Dillon Gabriel struggles under pressure. Bucknuts lead the nation in sack percentage.

Iowa -2.5 vs Washington – Huge let down spot for the Huskies after getting CFP revenge over scUM last week. Iowa has a tremendous advantage in special teams and commits far fewer penalties.

Big Ten are 1-8 this season when traveling two or more time zones in conference play. Iowa is 25-12-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite over last 11 years.
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LSU +3.5 vs Ole Miss - Rebels rank just 81st in opponent completion percentage (62.5%). LSU is the best passing attack the Rebs have faced by a Cajun mile. Tigers are coming off a bye and should be healthy while Ole Miss will be down star WR Tre Harris.

​Brian Kelly is 27-13-1 (67.5%) when catching at least a field goal. He's also 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) following a bye week.

​
For this weeks Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with:

Hawaii +21.0 vs Boise State – Look ahead game for BSU with UNLV up next. Hawaii is 4-0 ATS as home dog in MWC play.

South Carolina +21.0 @ Alabama – Relying on the Top 10 road loss stat above. That, and South Carolina has enough defense to keep this one close.

Mississippi State +34.0 @ Georgia – Look ahead situation for the Dawgs too. with Texas up next. UGA will rely on the ground game against a poor MSU run defense shortening the game. Once UGA gets the big lead they will rest the starters.
​
And for the Hold the Tables EPL pick I’ll go with:
Arsenal -155 @ Bournemouth hedged with a tie at +295

And for al the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 7 Bettors Guide

Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook

The Dolly Madison "preseason" portion of the season, full of cupcakes with a few interesting games sprinkled in, is over. Now the Big Boys start teeing off in conference games. And, man, were there a bunch of great games. From the fantastic heavy weight slugfest between Bama and Georgia that went the entire 15 rounds to the wild finish to between Miami (FL) and Va Tech, to the ending of Kentucky and Ole Miss and plenty of amazing plays across the fruited plain (unfortunately one by Ohio State - but it was a great catch). It was a great weekend for football!

Here's some of the fantastic plays from Week 5. College football at its best. 

​And we are only through week  5. Lets hope week 6 is every bit as good. 

Adding to the enjoyment was a profitable week of investing. I went 3-2 with a chance at 4-1 if UGA had held on. The Hold the Tables wagers are paying off too. 

As far as some of the interesting investing angles from last week they went:

1. ​Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS.  Results - #25 Kansas State covered as a 6.0 point favorite over Oklahoma State WIN; Notre Dame covered as a 6.5 point favorite over Louisville WIN; Penn State did not cover as 17.5 point favorite over Illinois LOSS; and in the best game of the year so far, Georgia did not cover as a 2 point favorite over Bama. 2-2 last week. Third straight week of this metric going 2-2. We will keep watching 

After last week's great slate, there is only one Top 20 matchup. #25 Texas A&M hosts #9 Missouri as a 2.0 point favorite.  

2. Since 2000, the Ducks are 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS against the Bruins. Oregon won 34-13 but did not cover the 24.5 point spread LOSS

3. Teams that allowed 50+ points in their previous game when listed as the favorite actually see the defense step up in their next game, with the under going 48-24. Duke beat UNC 21-20 to go under 56.0 WIN

No teams qualify for this one this week
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4. James Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS when he's favored by 10 points or more. Along with Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS. I’m staying away from this one. Illinois is hardly a cupcake. I was right to avoid this stat as Penn State won but did not cover vs Illinois 21-7

Penn State is a 28.0 favorite over UCLA. The Bruins are much closer to being a cupcake than the Illini. 28 points is a bit much for me though. I'll pass

5. Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020. New Mexico barely covered, beating NMSU 50-40 as 9.5 point favorites.  LOSS  Miami (OH) also qualifies as 18.0 favorites over UMass after losing to Notre Dame 28-3. Miami (OH) did not cover vs UMass WIN. 

This week Wisconsin -14.0 vs Purdue is the lone qualifier. Betting on Purdue? I'll pass

6. Since 2021,Oregon State is 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country. This week the Beavers host Colorado State as 12.0 favorites. I'll put some money down on the Beavers - see below

7. Boise State is 20-1 SU and 17-3-1 ATS vs. Utah State since 1998, winning and covering seven in a row dating back to 2017. The Broncos and their amazing RB Ashton Jeanty are 26.5 point home favorites over the Aggies. 

8. Some others to look at this week: Wisconsin is 13-3-0 ATS vs Purdue; Clemson is 13-5-0 vs Florida State; and Georgia is 13-6-0 vs Auburn.

9. USC is 19-34-2 ATS (35.8%) in games played outside the pacific standard time zone, going 2-7 ATS since the start of 2021. This week they play at Minnesota as 8.5 point favorites

10. Going to take another look at the stat - when the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. I'll invest in this one. See the Rutgers Nebraska game below. 

For my Point Whore Parlay I'll go with:

 1. Vanderbilt +22.0 vs Bama  - Following a top-five upset win, favorites of more than three touchdowns have gone just 8-14 ATS (36.4%) since 2005, including 1-5 against the number in conference matchups. 
2. Cal +10.5 vs Miami (FL) - Game Day is is Berkeley. Long road trip for the Canes. Bears defense is legit. 

In late breaking news, the Sheriff emerged from his Malibu Command Headquarters to say he is taking the bears on the Money Line at +310
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3. Minnesota +9.0 vs USC - USC struggles outside the PST. Lincoln Riley is 8-18-1 ATS as a road favorite. Gophers’ defense ranks Top 10 nationally in both opponents yards per game and opponents yards per play. 

And for my Hold the Tables EPL wager I'll go with
Liverpool -190 @ Crystal Palace - going full Bruce here, no hedging for the tie. 

And for all the games, times, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 6 Bettors Guide​

Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook

​And don't forget your drink coupons!

Hurricane Helene steamrolled through East Beach Command this week. Fortunately, no one was hurt, no flooding and only minimal damage to the Doofus estate. We did lose power and internet though. 

But through the courageous efforts and ingenuity of the Big Book of Guesses editorial staff we will still get out the latest issue for your reading enjoyment. 

Dan, has a slightly different opinion of the BBofG. Somehow this video remined him of the blog. 

Sounds about right

Before we get into this weeks picks lets see how last weeks betting angles turned out. 

1. Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS.  Results– #22 Nebraska favored by 8.5 over #24 Illinois. LOSS,  3:30 #11 USC is favored by 6.0 at #18 Michigan LOSS. #12 Utah is an 2.5 point underdog at #14 Oklahoma State WIN. #6 Tennessee travels to Oklahoma favored by 7.5. WIN. Another split decision.

This week - #25 Kansas State is a 6.0 favorite over Oklahoma State; Notre Dame is a 6.5 point favorite over Louisville; Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite over Illinois and in the biggest game of the year so far Georgia is a 2 point favorite over Bama.

2. Since 2021 Oregon State is 5-0 SU/ATS at home off a SU loss. Result – Beavers 38 Boilers 21 WIN

3. Over the past 20 years, Miami (FL) is 15-4 ATS on the road against schools in the Sunshine State. Result – Canes 50 Bulls 15 WIN

4 Fear the Bee! Since 2022, Georgia Tech is 10-9 SU and 14-5 ATS as an underdog, including winning their last two games outright as dogs. The Jackets have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as underdogs vs. ranked opponents. This one was tough to swallow, Louisville scored a scoop six off a blocked FG to win and cover 31-19 LOSS

​5. USC hasn't won and covered a game in EST or CST since 2011 against Notre Dame. You know the score WIN for those buffoons who bet on scUM

That makes 5-3 overall. Not bad. Despite what Dan thinks

Last weeks results – I went 2-1. 

Tennessee beat (and covered) at Oklahoma 25-15 WIN

Purdue and Oregon State scored 28 points in the 4th quarter for an over 51 – 28-21 WIN

I should have known better than to bet the Michigan game. It just inspires them. LOSS

Still remember that day at Dags!
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A couple new investing angles this week:

6. Alabama looks like it will close as a home underdog in a top-five matchup. The last top five team to be a home dog vs. another top five opponent was Notre Dame vs Clemson twice in 2020. Overall, a top five team has been a home dog 71 times since 1990 with a record of 18-53 SU, 28-42-1 ATS.

7. Oregon has had UCLA’s number. Since 2000, the Ducks are 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS against the Bruins.

8. You call that a defense North Carolina? They just allowed 70 points to James Madison. But fear not, since 2019, teams that allowed 50+ points in their previous game when listed as the favorite actually see the defense step up in their next game, with the under going 48-24. By the way the final score of JMU 70 UNC 50 was a Scorigami. It's never happened before in college football

9. James Franklin devours cupcakes like a cop on the midnight beat. In his career with Vanderbilt and Penn State, Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS (64%) when he's favored by 10 points or more. He's favored by 18 over Illinois this week

​10. Another angle on the #9 Penn State vs #19 Illinois game. Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS

Remember those Group of 5 upsets potentially leading to CFP berths. Well, Northern Illinois after upsetting Notre Dame lost in OT to a bad Buffalo team. Toledo followed up its blowout at Mississippi State with a 26-21 loss at Western Kentucky. And Memphis looked like a contender after beating Florida State got upset by Navy 56-44.

Perhaps the spot will go to UNLV.  UNLV is 3-0. No head coach over the last 40+ years has come even close to having with a winning record. Until HC Barry Odom came along.

Odom is now 12-5 in his short time with the program, which includes a trip to the Mountain West Championship last season, a bowl appearance, with dominant wins over Big 12 teams Houston and Kansas.  With a games against Syracuse from the ACC, Oregon State from the Pac 12 as well as home games against conference foes Fresno State and Boise State, the Rebels have a real shot at a CFP spot. ​

Here’s a Nickle's worth of picks:

Georgia -2.0 @ Alabama – The Dawgs have a had a week off to stew over the near loss to Kentucky and 9 months to stew over Bama QB Jalen Milroe calling them quitters. They’ll be fired up.

Kirby Smart is 31-16 ATS (66%) against ranked opponents, that also includes a 25-12 mark (67.6%) against the number as a favorite. Nobody is better against ranked opponents

Nebraska -10.0 @ Purdue – Purdue is a hot mess. Nebraska will come out hot after last weeks OT loss to Illinois. The Huskers will pound the ball against a terrible Purdue run defense for an easy win.

Navy -3.5 @ UAB – Even UAB HC Trent Dilfer admitted he has a terrible run defense. Not good when facing Navy. You have no offense either Trent. Navy rolls.

Before we get into this week's picks, let's start out with looking at how last weeks investing trends panned out. 

1. Last year, the Irish were 3-0 ATS after a SU loss.  Result - Notre Dame easily covered beating Purdue 66-7, WIN. Should the Domers lose again, I’ll wager a quatloos or two. By the way, weird stat of the week. ND scored the 66 points on exactly 66 plays.

2. Iowa hosts Troy with a total under 40 (39.5) and favored by more that 20 (22.5). Over the last 20 years, teams in these situations have gone 16-25 ATS.  Result - Iowa won 38-21 but did not cover WIN. Definitely worth looking out for

3. Colorado, scUM and NC State all lost by 14+ points last weekend and are favored by 7+ points this weekend. Since 2020, teams have gone 35-55-3 ATS in this scenario. The over went 53-39-1 Results:
​

​
     Colorado covered 28-9 LOSS and went under 59.0 LOSS;

     scUM won 28-18 but did not cover WIN and was just under the 47.5 LOSS (Weird stat #2, every throw by Michigan QB Davis Warren was caught by          someone. He went 11 for 14, the three misses were three picks);

      NC State won 30-20 but did not cover WIN and went just over 49.0 WIN. I’ll keep an eye on this one. 

This week we have 4 games, starting on Friday – #22 Nebraska favored by 8.5 over #24 Illinois. On Saturday at 3:30 #11 USC is favored by 6.0 at #18 Michigan. At 4:00 #12 Utah is an 2.5 point underdog at #14 Oklahoma State. Then the big game. At 7:30 #6 Tennessee travels to Oklahoma favored by 7.5. Will the hook be in play?

6. Since 2005, college games played in 13 MPH winds go 57% to the under. There were three games played in these conditions. App State @ East Carolina, Va Tech @ Old Dominion and Vanderbilt @ Georgia State. Results - The App State game went under the other two went over.  I’ll hold off on this one until later in the season when the weather starts to really get nasty.

Some new ones to consider this week:
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Oregon State is a 6.0 home favorite versus Purdue.  Since 2021, they are 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS at home -  the best mark in the country. Since that 2021 mark, the Beavers are also 5-0 SU/ATS at home off a SU loss. Last week they lost to Oregon 49-14. I'll put a quatloo on this one to see if that streak continues.

Missouri is a huge 21.0 favorite versus Vandy this week. As a favorite of 17 pts or more, Missouri is 53-0 SU and 30-22-1 ATS (58%) since 1990. ​

This week I’m going with a money line parlay at +108 starting with
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USC over Michigan – Normally, I don’t bet on the Michigan game. I’m rooting against them anyway, why amp it up (not that there’s much more amping that could be done)

Nah, this is pure kicking them when they are down. That defense is not so tough not they they aren’t stealing signs. The secondary is getting bombed on. coverage has been poor by back seven, as Hill, Johnson and linebacker Ernest Hausmann have allowed catches on 35-of-49 targets for a combined 257 yards. Probably because the the DL is not getting to the quarterback.

And guess who has the defensive inside knowledge in this game. Michigan was supposed to take the defense up another notch with the hiring of Wink Martindale from the Ravens. That clearly hasn’t happened. On the other side, for USC is DC D’Antn Lynn. Lynn just happened to be Martindale’s secondary coach at the Ravens.

USC’s offense has not dropped off even after the loss of Caleb Williams. QB Miller Moss doesn’t have the gaudy stats but has developed a nice rapport with WR Kyron Hudson and slot receiver Zacariah Branch.

The Michigan offense is going to almost entirely one dimensional with the announcement that qb Alex Orji is going to start. The Wolvies already run at a 56% clip, expect even more. 

USC has improved significantly in defending the rush and limiting missed tackles this year.

I’ll add to the parlay:

Tennessee over Oklahoma - This will mark the first time Oklahoma closes as an underdog of a field goal or more since upsetting No. 1 Nebraska back in 2000. As it happens, the Oklahoma QB in that game is Tennessee HC Josh Heupel while the DC for Oklahoma is current Sooner HC Brent Venables.

Oklahoma has been struggling this year. Up 21-0 in the 2nd quarter,  the Sooners saw the Green Wave draw within 24-19 in the opening minute of the final stanza before scoring the final 10 points to secure the win.. The week before they narrowly escaped an average Houston team by a score of 16-12.

The passing attack is the main culprit as Oklahoma ranks 114th overall. The wide receiver room has been decimated with injuries as has the OL which is replacing 5 starters from last year.

Several players are expected to be back for this key game including WRs Noc Anthony and Andrel Anthony. Starting center Branson Hickman may also play. Oklahoma was down to their 4th string center. Still, how rusty will they be and will need to develop cohesion in a live fire game.

Tennessee has gaudy stats all over the chart but it has been against really pathetic competition. That said, the Vols deserve credit for dismantling all three opponents by a combined score of 191-13, an average score of 64-4. All the credit is going to their electric passing offense but the defense has stepped up too. They have yet to let up a TD all year, The lone TD was a pick six by NC State in Week 2.

Tennesse has to much firepower for a still heaing Oklahoma. If this game were being played in a couple week’s I’d consider taking the points (7.5). As it is, I’ll just take the money line. ​

Purdue @ Oregon State over 51.0 - I’ll add to wager on Oregon State above. Purdue’s DL is a shambles. ND just pounded away at them last week for 364 yards at 8.5 yards per pop. The Beavers run at nearly the same rate as scUM 55% and rank in the Top 20 for Offensive line yards.

In reality, it’s the same way when the Boilers have the ball. They can run it fairly well and OSU is weak against the run. RB Reggie Love III ran for 6.1 yards per carry against ND. Purdue has an incredibly experienced offensive line that returns four starters and 165 career starts.

Oregon State returned just one starter on the defensive side of the ball, and that unit has struggled out of the gate. Oregon put 49 points up against the Beavers because they ran the ball for 7.5 yards per carry.

Both teams will have success running the ball and putting up efficient scoring drives. Poor defenses will lead to an over. 

For this week’s Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with
Miami (OH) +28.0 @ Notre Dame
Georgia Tech +10.5 @ Louisville
Arkansas St +22.0 @ Iowa State

And for my Hold the Tables Premier League wager I'll go with 
Aston Villa over Wolverhampton -170 and hedged with a tie at +340

And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 4 Bettors Guide:

Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook

Looks like the PAC 12 is not quite dead yet. At 6:00 AM pt, what’s left of the Pac 12 (#PAC12afterSunrise?) announced that after the 2025 season, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State will join the Conference. They still need two more members to become a Group of Six eligible conference.

The Pac 12 is likely looking for Cal and Stanford to return to their roots with UNLV, Air Force, Memphis or Tulane as back ups.
​
I don’t know, why not stick with the theme of all State schools - Washington State and Oregon State are the two current members. How about San Jose State? All great conferences need a Spartan program! Or do a reverse ACC and grab Appalachian State from the East. The Pac 12 has a great history of beating scUM. How about doing what the Sun Belt does and promoting top notch FCS program like North Dakota State.  Go for it – be the Pac 12 State conference. 

Mootsie may disagree but Northern Illinois upsetting Notre Dame in South Bend was the highlight of the weekend, The Domers were 28 point favorites, meaning, it's the worst loss, by spread, for ND since it lost its season opener as a 28-pt favorite vs. Northwestern in 1995. Now that was a great season for the Cats - still have the Northwestern Rose Bowl flag from that season. 

That was Notre Dame's 3rd loss SU as a 20+ point favorite within the first two weeks of the regular season since 1990 — the most of any school in the nation. In Week 3, Notre Dame is a big favorite against Purdue. Last year, the Irish were 3-0 ATS after a SU loss.

Is Iowa an offensive juggernaut now? They went over in week 1 and over again in week 2. Over the last three years, the Hawkeyes have gone 21-6 to the under, the best record of any school. Now they are 2-0 to the over for the first time in 20 years. 

Tis week Iowa hosts Troy with a total under 40 (39.5) and favored by more that 20 (22.5). Over the last 20 years, it's only happened 41 times with Iowa with Iowa participating in five of those spots. Teams in these situations have gone 16-25 ATS. 

Colorado, scUM and NC State all lost by 14+ points last weekend and are favored by 7+ points this weekend. Since 2020, teams have gone 35-55-3 ATS in this scenario. The over went 53-39-1

​ I stand corrected, Michigan getting blown out last week was the highlight of the weekend. 

The Sheriff is still bragging on Cal. Last week, Cal upset Auburn as 12 point dogs (and costing me a few quatloos). Now, they turn the table being big favorites this week against San Diego State. Teams favored by double-digits after a win as a double-digit 'dog in their previous game are actually a good bet historically early in the season (first four games), going 51-37-1 ATS.

As we move further into the season we will start seeing more ranked on ranked match ups. Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, they are over 57% ATS, including last nights win by Kansas State over Arizona 31-7. Today #5 Mizzou is favored by 16.5 over #24 Boston College.

One angle to look at in making your investments is the weather conditions. Since 2005, college games played in 13 MPH winds go 57% to the under. This week App State @ East Carolina (O/U 60.5) will be playing in 15 MPH winds, Va Tech @ Old Dominion (48.5) will be playing with winds of 14 MPH and Vanderbilt @ Georgia State (48.5) will be also be playing in 14 MPH. 

Those last two games - seems like we are getting a lot more Power 4 teams playing in Group of 5 cribs lately. 

Arkansas -24.0 vs UAB – Trent Dilfer continues to prve me right about being one of the worst HC in Div 1A. Last week he got blasted by a bad UL Monroe team 32-6. Now he faces an Arkansas team coming off a tough OT loss to Oklahoma State.

The Hogs made one of the best OC hires, bringing back Bobby Petrino to ramp up the scoring. Forne Spartan Dan Enos failed miserably in the same spot last year.

Boise State transfer QB Taylen Green has been on fire through two games. Green has already passed for 645 yards and rushed for 149 more. Fellow transfer, former Utah RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, has rushed for 250 yards on 7.8 carry this season.
​
The Arkansas defense should easily contain a 101st ranked UAB offense. With more talent, far better coaching and fired up at home the Hogs will roll the Blazers.

Mississippi State -11.5 vs Toledo – Toledo is not the Rocket teams of old. The talent is just not there this year. Last week they barely escaped a bad UMass team in a misleading 28-23 win. It took a TD on a KR and multiple personal fouls by the Minutemen to secure the win. UMass was the better football team, averaging almost six more plays and 20 more yards on a per-drive basis. 

The other MSU nearly knocked off Arizona State losing 30-23 last week. But the Bulldogs were actually a bit better overall in a number of statistical categories, averaging over a full yard per play more than the Forks.

The Bulldogs were just done in by turnovers, including an ASU scoop six following a sack. Mississippi State's up tempo offense under new head coach Jeff Lebby should have plenty of opportunities to exploit a Toledo defense that lost its top two pass-rushers and all three starting cornerbacks - one to Wisconsin and two others to the NFL, including first-round draft pick Quinyon Mitchell.
​
The market hasn’t caught up to how bad Toledo will be this year. I’ll take the better talented team at home to cover. 

Mississippi -22.5 @ Wake Forest – This is a huge mismatch when the Rebs have the ball. Ole Miss has scored 128 points so far this year (granted vs Furman and Middle Tenn State). The fan base was excited when star QB Jaxson Dart said he will return Oxford for one more season. Dart has been unreal thus far, completing 47-of-54 passes for nearly 800 yards.

The Wake Forest secondary was a complete disaster last week vs Virginia. Cav QB Anthony Colandrea 357 yards and completed over 76% of his passes. In total, Wake Forest allowed 430 yards of total offense last week and will have its hands full trying to cover the explosive weapons on the Rebel roster.

Wake Forest's offense took a step back after losing QB Sam Hartman to ND last year. Boise transfer Hank Bachmeier. He’s adequate and has a good WR in Donavan Greene but they just wont be able to keep up with Mississippi. 

For this weeks Point Whore Parlay I'll go with:
Colorado State +7.5 vs Colorado
Utah State +20.0 vs Utah
Oregon State +16.5 vs Oregon

I'm off to a good start on my Hold the Tables Premier League betting strategy. This week I took Man U over Southhampton and Arsenal +138 to win over Tottenham and +235 to tie

And for all the games, times, spreads, picks and much much more - here is the 2024 Week 3 Bettors Guide

Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook

And don't forget your drink coupons

Not a great start to the season for FSU to say the least

The Noles are just the third team to go from the preseason top-10 to unranked in the first regular-season poll since the rankings expanded to 25 in 1989. They are re also only the third team to start the season with losses after being double digit favorites (Baylor 2017, Wyoming 2015)

It’s the same Florida State team that was supposed to be fuming after getting snubbed for the CFB then proceeds to get blasted on a nuclear scale by Georgia 63-3. The Seminoles apparently haven't recovered since.

Entering Week 2, the Conference ATS champion is the MAC at 9-2 ATS. Next behind the MAC is the SEC at 11-4 ATS.

Brian Kelly is now 0-3 SU and ATS in openers with LSU. He's lost his opener ATS in six straight seasons dating back to 2019.

Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook. And don' t forget your drink coupons

It’s the first full weekend of College Football! Watching Tech upset FSU was a blast but it just wanted you wanting more. Much like that co-ed upstairs, it was a pure tease.

Now you can get the full monty of games.  Everyone is in the pool!

The Sax Man was worried about facing Georgia State next but perhaps for the wrong reason You see, it’s a common misconception that teams with a game under their belt have an advantage over teams playing for the first time. Teams make the most progress between games 1 and 2 is what is touted.

Well, the results disagree. If you factor out teams playing Div 1AA in their first game and look at just teams coming out of a game vs a Div 1A team (Tech and FSU qualify here as does Nevada), teams playing their second game are 34-60 ATS or 36%.

​Based on that trend alone I’m picking Georgia State +22.0 (no quatloos though), Troy -9.5 (I’ll lay a quatloos) and Boston College +17.0 (another quatloo) in the weekend ending game. By the way, it’s a small sample size but teams playing a conference game in their second game in this scenario (FSU)  are 3-14 ATS. Make that 2 quatloos on the Eagles.
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The biggest game of the weekend is the first game on Saturday

Georgia -13.5 vs Clemson (Atlanta) – Two teams with multiple National titles kick off in the noon game. UGA has owned Clemson over the years (43-18-4). Defenses ruled the last time these teams played back in 2021 as Georgia won 10-3 game with the only touchdown scored by the defense. 

Dabo’s maniacal refusal to use the transfer portal to bolster his team has left him with a thin, top-heavy roster.  Clemson QB Cade Klubnik was awful last year and has to improve in year 2 of OC Garrett Riley’s system. Riley has all of his main skill-position players back, and returns four starters on the offensive line as well.

He likes to play fast, the Tigers were 21st in seconds per play last season, while Georgia will play slow and try to control the tempo.

The Bulldogs have lost a little bit in the skill-position department from last year including a huge hole left by TE Brock Bowers, but head coach Kirby Smart reloads as he always does including bringing in Florida RB Trevor Etienne, Stanford TE Benjamin Yurosek and Miami WR Colbie Young.

Word is, is that Etienne will be suspended. As Steve Spurrier famously said “I sort of always liked playing them that second game because you could always count on them having two or three key players suspended." It may not be the second game but the quote still applies.

Georgia’s passing game is efficient but not explosive (115th last year) something the Clemson DL hopes to exploit. Clemson will bring the heat expecting that the won’t be beat over the top.
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But I’ll go with Georiga to cover. I just don’t trust Klubnik to beat the #1 team in the land still fuming about being left out of the playoffs. I’ll lay a quatloo. 

The afternoon games are highlighted by:

Florida +2.5 vs Miami (FL) - Preseason expectations have the Canes and the Gators heading in opposite directions. Florida HC Billy Napier has the hottest seat in college football after finishing below .500 in consecutive seasons at Florida. This season, he has to keep his job despite having the toughest strength of schedule in the nation, having to play UCF. FSU and a brutal second-half SEC stretch.

Miami (FL) HC Mario Cristobal enters his third season in Coral Gables, also bringing a losing record into 2024. Cristobal has leveraged the portal, bringing in two consecutive top-10 hauls including additions at QB (Cam Ward Washington St) and RB (Damien Martinez Oregon St).  The Canes are expected to make the ACC Championship game and compete for a spot in the CFP.’

The evenings best game is

​Texas A&M vs Notre Dame Under 47.5 - There will be no shortage of personal connections when Notre Dame travels south to face Texas A&M.

New Aggies HC Mike Elko was the DC at Notre Dame before taking the same position in College Station. The A&M staff is full of Elko former assistants at Duke, Those assistants should have plenty of data on the makeup of the Notre Dame roster, as the Elko-led Blue Devils faced Notre Dame last September.
Notre Dame C Marcus Freeman was successful in landing a quarterback from the transfer portal. Dukes Riley Leonard. Notre Dame OC Mike Denbrock returns to South Bend after leading LSU's offense with Hisman trophy -winning QB Jayden Daniels. He was last seen rattling the Aggies for 42 points to close out the 2023 regular season.

Bruce has indicated that I should go with Liverpool -115 win, +310 draw vs Man U. He's a big a fan of Liverpool as we are of State so he may be going with his heart. I still like it though. I'll also add Man City -250 to beat West Ham with a +425 to draw. 

Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook

​And for all the games, times, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 1 Bettors Guide

Football is finally here!! The homework is complete now it’s time to put things to the test. There’s only one game worth watching this weekend. The 8th in a series of games in Dublin. For Georgia Tech, it’s their second appearance in the Emerald Isle. The Sax Man and Saxy Lady watched them play in 2016 though their memories are a bit foggy after visiting all the pubs.
 
Florida State -11.5 vs Georgia Tech – FSU starts its revenge tour after going undefeated last year and getting snubbed by the CFP committee. Jonathan Smith and Aiden Chiles weren’t the only ones to bolt from Oregon State after the PAC 12 melted down. Starting QB DJ Uiagalelei transferred again to spend his fifth year in Tallahassee. He’ll be joined by Bama transfer RB Roydell Williams. Williams is a bruiser averaging 3.4 yards after contact. They will play behind an OL that returns 90% of the snaps from last year.

Tech looks to keep the momentum going after a surprising 7-6 campaign last season. Georgia Tech returns a bulk of its offense in 2024, led by dual-threat quarterback Haynes King. OC Buster Faulkner re-energized the Yellow Jackets’ offense, which went from the bottom 10 in the country in scoring in 2022 (17.2 points per game) to one that averaged more than 30 points per game last season.

The difference in the game will be the defenses. FSU has an outstanding defense and an elite secondary. Georgia Tech was abysmal ranking 128th against the rush, 94th in points allowed and 120th overall.

The Sax Man is giving me the stink eye already, so I’ll pick FSU to cover but no quatloos.

A wager I will make is related to Go Jumbo. When Woz and I go down to gab tables for the gang, the only sport that is on is Premier League soccer. I’ll usually put a small wager on a favorite to win but get burned because soccer has ties! So I’m practicing a new strategy this year to take a favorite but hedge it with betting on the tie. It’s been working so far. I made a little coin during the Euro Cup and the Olympics. Bruce has been giving me tips which has helped. I’m going to put my strategy to work this week with:
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Arsenal -130 to win hedged with a tie +290 – Arsenal is likely the 2nd best team in the league after Man City. I’ve been a fan of the Gunners just based on the name. I pick a lot of my favorite teams just based on the nicknames. I have one in the Professional Womens League Hockey. Hopefully the Swag Man can land me some gear. Great name - I’ll share at Go Jumbo

An for the games, times, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 0 Bettors Guide​

Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook. Don't forget your drink coupons! ​

​One fun way to invest in college football is the over/under win totals for the season. Rather than have a rooting interest for a team in a game, you have a rooting interest (for or against) for an entire season.
 
Lets start with the over/under for all the teams for 2024 organized by conference

First, I won't be wagering on Michigan State, just a house rule. And even though I think Michigan will go under too with all the turnover and the cheating finally catching up to them, I'll pass on taking the under. I root against them already, no need to amp that up. 

With that in mind and, by taking a look at the season schedule, new head coaches, roster changes and a lot more, here is a touchdown's worth of my favorite picks

UAB Under 6.5 wins – Trent Dilfer is an arrogant prick and a poor head coach. He kicked off last season saying he wins wherever he goes, then promptly lost eight games.  His offensive strategy relies on a short passing game that defenses quickly caught on to and started jumping routes. Not only that, but the offense just lost RB Jermaine Brown Jr., who is UAB’s all-time leader with 5,026 career all-purpose yards, and WR Tejhaun Palmer, to the NFL Draft this offseason.

And that was the good side of the ball. Even Dilfer admits the defense was, as he described it "terrible" or "horrible" six times in a 17-minute press conference last month. The Blazers could barely line up correctly lasts season and gave up an average of 37 points per game.

There is only one layup of a game on the schedule, the home opener against 1AA Alcorn State. The rest or either toss ups or heavy underdogs.
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Get ready to start seeing Dilfer on the Coaching Hot Seat in the near future. ​

Louisville Under 8.5 wins - Louisville rode a 5-0 record in one-possession games to get off to a 10-1 start in year one under Jeff Brohm. The prodigal son return home! He's a miracle worker! Then they regressed to the mean, losing their last three games.

This year, Brohm’s team will start QB Tyler Shough, who has major injury concerns and just lost their best WR Caullin Lacy to a collarbone injury.

With a much tougher schedule than last year including road trips to Notre Dame, Clemson, and Kentucky, another 10-2 campaign is out the window. The home slate is no piece of cake either with games against SMU, Miami (FL) and Pitt. Louisville is going to be hard pressed to win nine games. 

Syracuse Under 7.0 wins – I thought the hiring of Fran Brown was a stretch in that he has never been a coordinator and gained his reputation as a star recruiter at Georgia. I mean, how hard is that? The good news is he did land former Bucknut QB Kyle McCord out of the portal. The bad news is that put this immobile QB, who crumbles under pressure behind one of the worst OLs in college football (ranked 110th)

The scheduler tried to rig the over. Syracuse is one of only two Power 4 teams, that does not play an out of conference P4 team (Ohio State is the other). But the schedule is still left with plenty of toss-ups. Syracuse projects to have five spreads within six points. Three of the coin-flip games come in the conference against Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, all of which are coming off a bye week.
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With three likely losses to NC State, Miami (FL) and Va Tech, the Orange will need to win eight of the remaining nine games to get the over. Unlikely for a first time inexperienced HC

Oklahoma State Over 8.0 wins – The Big 12 was decapitated by losing Texas and Oklahoma right? What if I were to tell you that over the last five years, Oklahoma won 31 regular season Big 12 games and Texas won 28. Oklahoma State won 30.

Mike Gundy has 18 straight winning seasons. Last year the Pokes went 10-4 and return both coordinators and 20 starters, including Doak Walker winner Ollie Gordon II, quarterback Alan Bowman and the entire offensive line. 

This year, Oklahoma State will have the sixth-easiest schedule in college football, The Cowboys will square off against only four teams this season that went over .500 in 2023. That schedule includes zero teams that had nine or more victories and two squads that compiled three or fewer wins last year.

A home game against Utah and road trip to Kansas State are the most difficult games. The Cowboys should be favored in the rest.
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And if you want to donate to the OSU NIL fund, the players will have QR codes on their helmets. Innovative, even if it gives me that old school "get off my lawn" feeling. 

Georgia Over 10.5 Wins – Let’s see, Georgia is expected to be favored in every game, is the odds on favorite to win it all and I get spotted a game. I’m not going to out think this. I’ll take the Dawgs to go over 10.5 Even if there is an upset in there, say Clemson in game 1, (though I hate to use my get out of jail card in the first game), or @ Bama or @ Ole Miss on Go Jumbo weekend,  you still get the win.

Georgia is loaded, returning 14 starters this season, including QB Carson Beck and an OL that will be playing on Sundays, The defense should return to its uber-elite standard with only four players from that side of the ball leaving to go pro. Last years squad finished ninth in the nation in total defense - No. 1 in the SEC - fifth in scoring D, and No. 1 in third down defense. They will be even better.
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Here’s something to think about, the Dawgs have as many national championships as they do losses over the last three seasons. 

Texas Under 10.5 wins – So Texas and Georgia have the same over/under line? One of the two teams (likely Texas) will use their free space when the play each other in Austin on October 19th.
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Lose that game and Texas can’t afford another loss with games. Keep in mind one of those games is the Red River Shootout versus Oklahoma the week before they play UGA. Plus they play in the Big Sh!thouse in week 2, followed by a potential let down game against UT San Antonio, and end the season with a renewed rivalry against Texas A&M. And if they look ahead to that game, they Horns could get tripped up by Kentucky the week before.

The SEC is a big step up in competition from the Big 12 and Texas needs to replace  WR Xavier Worthy - who  set the NFL combine all-time record in the 40-yard dash and was a first-round selection by the Kansas City Chiefs, plus WR Andonai Mitchell (2nd round to Indianapolis) and RB Jonathon Brooks (2nd round Carolina). Even with all those players, Sarkisian teams habitually struggle to score inside the red zone. Last year they were 120th in scoring from inside the 20.
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But, they do have this going for them. Texas is the only playoff team from last year that returns its HC.

Wyoming Over 6.5 Wins - Wyoming had the shortest transfer portal page of any Group of 5 team by a mile. They lost three total players to the portal and only one was even remotely a contributor last season. That speaks volumes to what the team thinks about new HC Jay Sawvel.

The Cowboys return nearly every starter on both sides of the ball The defense should be great again, they have the best home-field advantage in college football, and they have a phenomenal special teams.  

Once again, Wyoming will be a tough out every week, and it beats the teams it’s supposed to. How many of the ten teams Wyoming lost to over the last two years finished with a losing record? None.

They open the season with Arizona State, Idaho, BYU, and North Texas, and they could easily get out to a 4-0 start. And then they get Air Force and San Diego State at home.
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They could legitimately be 9-1 before getting to their hardest games of the season, in which case they'll have already cashed this total by a mile.

Remember - the Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16tth at the Westgate SuperBook. 

It’s finally here. College football is ready to kick off the 2024 season. But before we get into the first investments of the season and after having reviewed the new head college football head coaches, there’ some more critical items to go over – starting with the conference realignments.

The conferences, after years of tweaking the membership, went into warp drive this year. The PAC 12 melted down faster than Chernobyl, the Big 2 conferences (SEC and Big Ten) cherry picked the best of the other Power 5 (now Power 4), the ACC took the leftovers of the PAC 12. The Big 12 lost their two best teams so grabbed a mixed bag of PAC 12 teams  - a full 15 teams changed conferences. Plus,  one new member was added to Div 1A (Kennesaw State) bringing the total teams to 134.

Here’s how it all shook out starting with the conferences that stood pat.

The MAC has been steady eddy for years now and remains with these 12 teams -  Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo and Western Michigan. 

The Mountain West remained on the sidelines but did schedule 15 games with the two leftovers from the PAC 12, Oregon State and Washington State. The 12 teams are - Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawai'i, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State and Wyoming.

The Fun Belt decided to stay put with these 14 teams - Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, James Madison, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe, Marshall, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Texas State and Troy. 

Then the fun begins! 

With the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, the SEC now has 16 teams - Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.

The loser in all the changes over the years is the Conference USA. It is by far the worst conference in Div 1A and is now just an entry level league for teams moving up from Div 1AA. The 10 team line up is – Florida International, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Sam Houston, UTEP and Western Kentucky.

Even with just two teams the PAC 12 is still a better conference than the CUSA – the forgotten two are Oregon State and Washington State. Keep them in your prayers.

With Army joining the AAC, there are now just three Independents – Connecticut, Notre Dame and Massachusetts.

Of course the biggest change is the 12 team playoff. Yes! About time. You could make the argument in years past that teams 5 and 6 should be in the playoffs and have a legit chance to win. But not teams 13, 14 and beyond.

This is how it will work - The four highest ranked conference champions will be seeded numbers 1-4 and receive a first-round bye. Seeds 5-12 will play each other in the first round. The higher seeded teams will play host in their first round games.

​Another big yes! I can’t wait for a team like LSU have to play Wisconsin in Camp Randall with a cold snowy breeze whipping off Lake Mendota.

The Big Guy is entering a preseason pool on the 12 team playoffs. It’s a bit of a stretch but here is what I sent him. ​

If I get half right I'm doing pretty good

More to come including investing in win totals and week 0 picks

​Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook. And don't forget your drink coupons