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2024 Week 3 - The PAC 12 is not quite dead yet

9/14/2024

We're not quite dead yet

Looks like the PAC 12 is not quite dead yet. At 6:00 AM pt, what’s left of the Pac 12 (#PAC12afterSunrise?) announced that after the 2025 season, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State will join the Conference. They still need two more members to become a Group of Six eligible conference.

The Pac 12 is likely looking for Cal and Stanford to return to their roots with UNLV, Air Force, Memphis or Tulane as back ups.

I don’t know, why not stick with the theme of all State schools - Washington State and Oregon State are the two current members. How about San Jose State? All great conferences need a Spartan program! Or do a reverse ACC and grab Appalachian State from the East. The Pac 12 has a great history of beating scUM. How about doing what the Sun Belt does and promoting top notch FCS program like North Dakota State. Go for it – be the Pac 12 State conference.

My favorite game of the weekend

Mootsie may disagree but Northern Illinois upsetting Notre Dame in South Bend was the highlight of the weekend, The Domers were 28 point favorites, meaning, it's the worst loss, by spread, for ND since it lost its season opener as a 28-pt favorite vs. Northwestern in 1995. Now that was a great season for the Cats - still have the Northwestern Rose Bowl flag from that season.

That was Notre Dame's 3rd loss SU as a 20+ point favorite within the first two weeks of the regular season since 1990 — the most of any school in the nation. In Week 3, Notre Dame is a big favorite against Purdue. Last year, the Irish were 3-0 ATS after a SU loss.

Is Iowa an offensive juggernaut now? They went over in week 1 and over again in week 2. Over the last three years, the Hawkeyes have gone 21-6 to the under, the best record of any school. Now they are 2-0 to the over for the first time in 20 years.

Tis week Iowa hosts Troy with a total under 40 (39.5) and favored by more that 20 (22.5). Over the last 20 years, it's only happened 41 times with Iowa with Iowa participating in five of those spots. Teams in these situations have gone 16-25 ATS.

Colorado, scUM and NC State all lost by 14+ points last weekend and are favored by 7+ points this weekend. Since 2020, teams have gone 35-55-3 ATS in this scenario. The over went 53-39-1

I stand corrected, Michigan getting blown out last week was the highlight of the weekend.

Cal cost me a few quatloos

The Sheriff is still bragging on Cal. Last week, Cal upset Auburn as 12 point dogs (and costing me a few quatloos). Now, they turn the table being big favorites this week against San Diego State. Teams favored by double-digits after a win as a double-digit 'dog in their previous game are actually a good bet historically early in the season (first four games), going 51-37-1 ATS.

As we move further into the season we will start seeing more ranked on ranked match ups. Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, they are over 57% ATS, including last nights win by Kansas State over Arizona 31-7. Today #5 Mizzou is favored by 16.5 over #24 Boston College.

One angle to look at in making your investments is the weather conditions. Since 2005, college games played in 13 MPH winds go 57% to the under. This week App State @ East Carolina (O/U 60.5) will be playing in 15 MPH winds, Va Tech @ Old Dominion (48.5) will be playing with winds of 14 MPH and Vanderbilt @ Georgia State (48.5) will be also be playing in 14 MPH.

Those last two games - seems like we are getting a lot more Power 4 teams playing in Group of 5 cribs lately.

Jackson had 3 TDs vs OK State in a losing effort

Arkansas -24.0 vs UAB – Trent Dilfer continues to prve me right about being one of the worst HC in Div 1A. Last week he got blasted by a bad UL Monroe team 32-6. Now he faces an Arkansas team coming off a tough OT loss to Oklahoma State.

The Hogs made one of the best OC hires, bringing back Bobby Petrino to ramp up the scoring. Forne Spartan Dan Enos failed miserably in the same spot last year.

Boise State transfer QB Taylen Green has been on fire through two games. Green has already passed for 645 yards and rushed for 149 more. Fellow transfer, former Utah RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, has rushed for 250 yards on 7.8 carry this season.

The Arkansas defense should easily contain a 101st ranked UAB offense. With more talent, far better coaching and fired up at home the Hogs will roll the Blazers.

Toledo's defense has horrifically regressed

Mississippi State -11.5 vs Toledo – Toledo is not the Rocket teams of old. The talent is just not there this year. Last week they barely escaped a bad UMass team in a misleading 28-23 win. It took a TD on a KR and multiple personal fouls by the Minutemen to secure the win. UMass was the better football team, averaging almost six more plays and 20 more yards on a per-drive basis.

The other MSU nearly knocked off Arizona State losing 30-23 last week. But the Bulldogs were actually a bit better overall in a number of statistical categories, averaging over a full yard per play more than the Forks.

The Bulldogs were just done in by turnovers, including an ASU scoop six following a sack. Mississippi State's up tempo offense under new head coach Jeff Lebby should have plenty of opportunities to exploit a Toledo defense that lost its top two pass-rushers and all three starting cornerbacks - one to Wisconsin and two others to the NFL, including first-round draft pick Quinyon Mitchell.

The market hasn’t caught up to how bad Toledo will be this year. I’ll take the better talented team at home to cover.

Jaxson Dart is in the hunt for a Heisman

Mississippi -22.5 @ Wake Forest – This is a huge mismatch when the Rebs have the ball. Ole Miss has scored 128 points so far this year (granted vs Furman and Middle Tenn State). The fan base was excited when star QB Jaxson Dart said he will return Oxford for one more season. Dart has been unreal thus far, completing 47-of-54 passes for nearly 800 yards.

The Wake Forest secondary was a complete disaster last week vs Virginia. Cav QB Anthony Colandrea 357 yards and completed over 76% of his passes. In total, Wake Forest allowed 430 yards of total offense last week and will have its hands full trying to cover the explosive weapons on the Rebel roster.

Wake Forest's offense took a step back after losing QB Sam Hartman to ND last year. Boise transfer Hank Bachmeier. He’s adequate and has a good WR in Donavan Greene but they just wont be able to keep up with Mississippi.

For this weeks Point Whore Parlay I'll go with:
Colorado State +7.5 vs Colorado
Utah State +20.0 vs Utah
Oregon State +16.5 vs Oregon

I'm off to a good start on my Hold the Tables Premier League betting strategy. This week I took Man U over Southhampton and Arsenal +138 to win over Tottenham and +235 to tie

And for all the games, times, spreads, picks and much much more - here is the 2024 Week 3 Bettors Guide

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Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook

And don't forget your drink coupons

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2024 Week 2 - FSU, like what's that all about?

9/7/2024

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More like sucks to be FSU

Not a great start to the season for FSU to say the least

The Noles are just the third team to go from the preseason top-10 to unranked in the first regular-season poll since the rankings expanded to 25 in 1989. They are re also only the third team to start the season with losses after being double digit favorites (Baylor 2017, Wyoming 2015)

It’s the same Florida State team that was supposed to be fuming after getting snubbed for the CFB then proceeds to get blasted on a nuclear scale by Georgia 63-3. The Seminoles apparently haven't recovered since.

Entering Week 2, the Conference ATS champion is the MAC at 9-2 ATS. Next behind the MAC is the SEC at 11-4 ATS.

Brian Kelly is now 0-3 SU and ATS in openers with LSU. He's lost his opener ATS in six straight seasons dating back to 2019.

Kyle just keeps on covering

Alabama (-34.5) just keeps on covering After destroying Western Kentucky 63-0 in its opener, The Tide is 15-2 ATS in openers since 2008. But keep in mind they are 6-12-1 ATS in their second game of the season. Let's see if Kalen DeBoer can buck the trend. They play South Florida as 31.0 favorites.

At -7.0, this is scUM’s biggest home underdog since 2019 vs. Ohio State at +9. It lost 56-27. This is Michigan's biggest underdog vs. a non-conference opponent since 2021 vs. Georgia at +7.5. It lost 34-11. If Michigan closes above 7.5, it would have to go back to 2012 against Alabama, where it was +13, it lost 41-14. In fact, Michigan is 0-5 straight-up in home underdog roles and has not won at home as more than a touchdown underdog since 1995.

As a double-digit favorite, Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is 46-27-1 ATS, making him the second-most profitable coach as a double-digit favorite since 2005, behind only James Franklin. Utah is a 14.0 favorite vs Baylor. Penn State is a 34.0 favorite vs Bowling Green.

With Vanderbilt’s win over Va Tech and South Carolina’s near loss to Old Dominion, there may be a new tenant in the SEC basement. So lets start with the GameCocks game in my three favorite picks of the week.

If ODU can get to Sellers, imagine what Kentucky can do

Kentucky -9.0 vs South Carolina - With Spencer Rattler now playing for the Saints, LaNorris Sellers went under center for South Carolina. It was…not good. Sellers completed only 10 of 24 passes for 114 yards and was sacked four times

Sellers said he felt “scared and timid,” I’ll bet. Imagine how “scared and afraid” he will be facing a Kentucky DL a lot better than what ODU rolled out. The Gamecocks’ two touchdowns were gift-wrapped turnovers inside the 10-yard line. It took everything in the tank to get by the Monarchs, scoring the winning TD with six minutes to go 23-19.

Kentucky meanwhile blasted away at Southern Miss 31-0 in game game called off with 9:36 to go in the 3rd quarter. The Wildcats new QB Brock Vandagriff had a much better outing throwing for 3 TDs and even scrambling for another 35 yards. The passing attack is better this year with the addition of WR Ja’Mori Maclin to line up with returners Dane Key and Barion Brown.

The Kentucky secondary is still a work in process but should have no issue with the inept Inspector Sellers.

Jalon is back and ready to rumble

Kansas -4.5 @ Illinois – What Lance Liepold has done at Kansas is nothing short of amazing He took a perpetually bottom feeder program into a 9 win program last year and a contender on the Big 12 again this year. The electric QB Jalon Daniels returns to Lawrence along with RB Daniel Neal. Neal had one of hos best games of the year last year against the Illini with 120 yard on just 10 carries.

Illinois went from 8 wins in 2022 to 5 wins last year. I doubt if he will return to 8 wins again. Bert relies on a pound and ground offense but lost 3 starters on his OL including his two best ones. If the Illini get behind they are in a world of hurt QB Luke Altmeyer ranked 185th amongst passers with at least 50 throws last year. He’ll probably remain down there as he lost his tow favorite targets.

Kansas has a bit of trouble defensively but should easily be able to make enough stops for Kansas to run all over Illinois.

Pretty much sums up his coaching competency

Nebraska -7.5 vs Colorado – Is there a moreover hyped coach than Prime? He’s in commercials with a real HC in Saban and more appropriately as a pigeon for Direct TV. Unfortunately for fans of football, Direct TV will be showing the game. Their dispute with Disney does not cover the Peacock network.
Sure he has some stars on the offense but the OL and DL were some of the worst in the country. They showed some improvement last week against an excellent North Dakota State FCS team. But Nebraska’s lines are a big step up from NDSU. Sanders love to play man as a player and runs it asa HC. Too bad they don’t have the talent to play man.

Matt Rhule doesn’t get near the hype but is a much better HC. It’s takes a season for him to get going and this is season 2 for Rhule. He also gets a better QB to lead the offenses this season in Dylan Riaola. Last week he tore apart UTEP for 238 yards and 2 TDs. He should do ven better against a poor Buff defense.

With evenly matched offense, much better defense and line play, I’ll take the Huskers to get easily get the cover.

I’m going with a Point Whore Parlay this week with:
Eastern Michigan +25.0 @ Washington
Sam Houston State +22.5 @ UCF
Northern Illinois +28.0 @ Notre Dame

And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 2 Bettors Guide

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Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook. And don' t forget your drink coupons

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2024 Week 1 - Lots of great games on tap

8/31/2024

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The Sax Man is still telling me "I told you so"

It’s the first full weekend of College Football! Watching Tech upset FSU was a blast but it just wanted you wanting more. Much like that co-ed upstairs, it was a pure tease.

Now you can get the full monty of games. Everyone is in the pool!

The Sax Man was worried about facing Georgia State next but perhaps for the wrong reason You see, it’s a common misconception that teams with a game under their belt have an advantage over teams playing for the first time. Teams make the most progress between games 1 and 2 is what is touted.

Well, the results disagree. If you factor out teams playing Div 1AA in their first game and look at just teams coming out of a game vs a Div 1A team (Tech and FSU qualify here as does Nevada), teams playing their second game are 34-60 ATS or 36%.

Based on that trend alone I’m picking Georgia State +22.0 (no quatloos though), Troy -9.5 (I’ll lay a quatloos) and Boston College +17.0 (another quatloo) in the weekend ending game. By the way, it’s a small sample size but teams playing a conference game in their second game in this scenario (FSU) are 3-14 ATS. Make that 2 quatloos on the Eagles.

The biggest game of the weekend is the first game on Saturday

I just don't trust Cade Klubnik to beat Georgia

Georgia -13.5 vs Clemson (Atlanta) – Two teams with multiple National titles kick off in the noon game. UGA has owned Clemson over the years (43-18-4). Defenses ruled the last time these teams played back in 2021 as Georgia won 10-3 game with the only touchdown scored by the defense.

Dabo’s maniacal refusal to use the transfer portal to bolster his team has left him with a thin, top-heavy roster. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik was awful last year and has to improve in year 2 of OC Garrett Riley’s system. Riley has all of his main skill-position players back, and returns four starters on the offensive line as well.

He likes to play fast, the Tigers were 21st in seconds per play last season, while Georgia will play slow and try to control the tempo.

The Bulldogs have lost a little bit in the skill-position department from last year including a huge hole left by TE Brock Bowers, but head coach Kirby Smart reloads as he always does including bringing in Florida RB Trevor Etienne, Stanford TE Benjamin Yurosek and Miami WR Colbie Young.

Word is, is that Etienne will be suspended. As Steve Spurrier famously said “I sort of always liked playing them that second game because you could always count on them having two or three key players suspended." It may not be the second game but the quote still applies.

Georgia’s passing game is efficient but not explosive (115th last year) something the Clemson DL hopes to exploit. Clemson will bring the heat expecting that the won’t be beat over the top.

But I’ll go with Georiga to cover. I just don’t trust Klubnik to beat the #1 team in the land still fuming about being left out of the playoffs. I’ll lay a quatloo.

Martinez was a bulldozer for the Beavers

The afternoon games are highlighted by:

Florida +2.5 vs Miami (FL) - Preseason expectations have the Canes and the Gators heading in opposite directions. Florida HC Billy Napier has the hottest seat in college football after finishing below .500 in consecutive seasons at Florida. This season, he has to keep his job despite having the toughest strength of schedule in the nation, having to play UCF. FSU and a brutal second-half SEC stretch.

Miami (FL) HC Mario Cristobal enters his third season in Coral Gables, also bringing a losing record into 2024. Cristobal has leveraged the portal, bringing in two consecutive top-10 hauls including additions at QB (Cam Ward Washington St) and RB (Damien Martinez Oregon St). The Canes are expected to make the ACC Championship game and compete for a spot in the CFP.’

While Cam Ward like to put it on the ground

Martinez was a bulldozer for the Beavers, rushing for more than 2,100 yards in two years of service. Ward however, is a threat to his own team, generating 79 turnover-worthy plays alongside 71 big-time throws. Plus he has 46 fumbles along side his 16 career rushing touchdowns.

Ward will benefit from playing behind an OL that was rated 10th last year in pass protection, returning 120 starts and nearly every snap.

Graham Mertz has resurrected his career at Florida having his lowest lowest turnover-worthy play rate. HE will be throwing to a familiar face as WR Chimere Dike transferred in from Badgerland.

The loss of RB Trevor Etienne to UGA is a setback, but lead rusher Montrell Johnson Jr. racked up five touchdowns and 3.5 yards after contact.
The Gators will have their hands full with a Hurricanes defensive line that projects as the best in the ACC. Still, while Martinez should keep Miami's chains moving, the Florida rushing attack lacks a similar potency.

I’m going to take the home underdogs primarily do to Wards propensity to screw things up. No quatloos though since everywhere else, the Canes are superior to the Gators.

NDs defense will create plenty of havoc

The evenings best game is

Texas A&M vs Notre Dame Under 47.5 - There will be no shortage of personal connections when Notre Dame travels south to face Texas A&M.

New Aggies HC Mike Elko was the DC at Notre Dame before taking the same position in College Station. The A&M staff is full of Elko former assistants at Duke, Those assistants should have plenty of data on the makeup of the Notre Dame roster, as the Elko-led Blue Devils faced Notre Dame last September.
Notre Dame C Marcus Freeman was successful in landing a quarterback from the transfer portal. Dukes Riley Leonard. Notre Dame OC Mike Denbrock returns to South Bend after leading LSU's offense with Hisman trophy -winning QB Jayden Daniels. He was last seen rattling the Aggies for 42 points to close out the 2023 regular season.

As will the Agiges

Leonard is a dual threat QB who had over 1,000 yards throwing and 250 yards rushing in seven games before a mid season ankle injury ended his season. He’s fully healthy and will lead an offense with plenty of carryover at the skill positions, including RB Jadarian, TE Mitchell Evans and slot receiver Jaden Greenhouse.

The OL took a hit however with the loss of Joe Alt and Blake Fisher to the NFL. Notre Dame is also expected to field one of the nastiest defensive lines in the country under Freeman's 3-3-5. They face an Aggie OL that finished outside the top 100 in pass protection

A&M HC Mike Elko nabbed OC Collin Klein from Kansas State and is expected mimic the Wildcats' scheme utilizing plenty of 21 and 22 personnel with a heavy lean toward the rush. RB Le'Veon Moss will take on the workhorse role with an injury to rising star Rueben Owens

Notre Dame and Texas A&M will continue to rank top-10 nationally in defensive havoc. pass breakups, interceptions, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, pressures and sacks. Staples of two programs that have defensive-minded head coaches.

I’m going pass on taking the line but take the under 47.5 for a mini mega

Bruce has indicated that I should go with Liverpool -115 win, +310 draw vs Man U. He's a big a fan of Liverpool as we are of State so he may be going with his heart. I still like it though. I'll also add Man City -250 to beat West Ham with a +425 to draw.

Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook

And for all the games, times, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 1 Bettors Guide

2024_week_1.xlsx
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2024 Week 0 - Football kicks off in the Land of Leprechauns

8/23/2024

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Roydell loves YAC

Football is finally here!! The homework is complete now it’s time to put things to the test. There’s only one game worth watching this weekend. The 8th in a series of games in Dublin. For Georgia Tech, it’s their second appearance in the Emerald Isle. The Sax Man and Saxy Lady watched them play in 2016 though their memories are a bit foggy after visiting all the pubs.

Florida State -11.5 vs Georgia Tech – FSU starts its revenge tour after going undefeated last year and getting snubbed by the CFP committee. Jonathan Smith and Aiden Chiles weren’t the only ones to bolt from Oregon State after the PAC 12 melted down. Starting QB DJ Uiagalelei transferred again to spend his fifth year in Tallahassee. He’ll be joined by Bama transfer RB Roydell Williams. Williams is a bruiser averaging 3.4 yards after contact. They will play behind an OL that returns 90% of the snaps from last year.

Tech looks to keep the momentum going after a surprising 7-6 campaign last season. Georgia Tech returns a bulk of its offense in 2024, led by dual-threat quarterback Haynes King. OC Buster Faulkner re-energized the Yellow Jackets’ offense, which went from the bottom 10 in the country in scoring in 2022 (17.2 points per game) to one that averaged more than 30 points per game last season.

The difference in the game will be the defenses. FSU has an outstanding defense and an elite secondary. Georgia Tech was abysmal ranking 128th against the rush, 94th in points allowed and 120th overall.

The Sax Man is giving me the stink eye already, so I’ll pick FSU to cover but no quatloos.

A wager I will make is related to Go Jumbo. When Woz and I go down to gab tables for the gang, the only sport that is on is Premier League soccer. I’ll usually put a small wager on a favorite to win but get burned because soccer has ties! So I’m practicing a new strategy this year to take a favorite but hedge it with betting on the tie. It’s been working so far. I made a little coin during the Euro Cup and the Olympics. Bruce has been giving me tips which has helped. I’m going to put my strategy to work this week with:

Arsenal -130 to win hedged with a tie +290 – Arsenal is likely the 2nd best team in the league after Man City. I’ve been a fan of the Gunners just based on the name. I pick a lot of my favorite teams just based on the nicknames. I have one in the Professional Womens League Hockey. Hopefully the Swag Man can land me some gear. Great name - I’ll share at Go Jumbo

An for the games, times, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 0 Bettors Guide

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Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook. Don't forget your drink coupons!

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2024 Season Win Totals

8/21/2024

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One fun way to invest in college football is the over/under win totals for the season. Rather than have a rooting interest for a team in a game, you have a rooting interest (for or against) for an entire season.

Lets start with the over/under for all the teams for 2024 organized by conference

Dilfer is a blazing ahole

First, I won't be wagering on Michigan State, just a house rule. And even though I think Michigan will go under too with all the turnover and the cheating finally catching up to them, I'll pass on taking the under. I root against them already, no need to amp that up.

With that in mind and, by taking a look at the season schedule, new head coaches, roster changes and a lot more, here is a touchdown's worth of my favorite picks

UAB Under 6.5 wins – Trent Dilfer is an arrogant prick and a poor head coach. He kicked off last season saying he wins wherever he goes, then promptly lost eight games. His offensive strategy relies on a short passing game that defenses quickly caught on to and started jumping routes. Not only that, but the offense just lost RB Jermaine Brown Jr., who is UAB’s all-time leader with 5,026 career all-purpose yards, and WR Tejhaun Palmer, to the NFL Draft this offseason.

And that was the good side of the ball. Even Dilfer admits the defense was, as he described it "terrible" or "horrible" six times in a 17-minute press conference last month. The Blazers could barely line up correctly lasts season and gave up an average of 37 points per game.

There is only one layup of a game on the schedule, the home opener against 1AA Alcorn State. The rest or either toss ups or heavy underdogs.

Get ready to start seeing Dilfer on the Coaching Hot Seat in the near future.

Another year, another season with Shough being taken off on the medical cart

Louisville Under 8.5 wins - Louisville rode a 5-0 record in one-possession games to get off to a 10-1 start in year one under Jeff Brohm. The prodigal son return home! He's a miracle worker! Then they regressed to the mean, losing their last three games.

This year, Brohm’s team will start QB Tyler Shough, who has major injury concerns and just lost their best WR Caullin Lacy to a collarbone injury.

With a much tougher schedule than last year including road trips to Notre Dame, Clemson, and Kentucky, another 10-2 campaign is out the window. The home slate is no piece of cake either with games against SMU, Miami (FL) and Pitt. Louisville is going to be hard pressed to win nine games.

Sorry Fran, I think you are in over your head

Syracuse Under 7.0 wins – I thought the hiring of Fran Brown was a stretch in that he has never been a coordinator and gained his reputation as a star recruiter at Georgia. I mean, how hard is that? The good news is he did land former Bucknut QB Kyle McCord out of the portal. The bad news is that put this immobile QB, who crumbles under pressure behind one of the worst OLs in college football (ranked 110th)

The scheduler tried to rig the over. Syracuse is one of only two Power 4 teams, that does not play an out of conference P4 team (Ohio State is the other). But the schedule is still left with plenty of toss-ups. Syracuse projects to have five spreads within six points. Three of the coin-flip games come in the conference against Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, all of which are coming off a bye week.

With three likely losses to NC State, Miami (FL) and Va Tech, the Orange will need to win eight of the remaining nine games to get the over. Unlikely for a first time inexperienced HC

Donate now! - and you can give credit to your favorite player. Operators are standing by

Oklahoma State Over 8.0 wins – The Big 12 was decapitated by losing Texas and Oklahoma right? What if I were to tell you that over the last five years, Oklahoma won 31 regular season Big 12 games and Texas won 28. Oklahoma State won 30.

Mike Gundy has 18 straight winning seasons. Last year the Pokes went 10-4 and return both coordinators and 20 starters, including Doak Walker winner Ollie Gordon II, quarterback Alan Bowman and the entire offensive line.

This year, Oklahoma State will have the sixth-easiest schedule in college football, The Cowboys will square off against only four teams this season that went over .500 in 2023. That schedule includes zero teams that had nine or more victories and two squads that compiled three or fewer wins last year.

A home game against Utah and road trip to Kansas State are the most difficult games. The Cowboys should be favored in the rest.

And if you want to donate to the OSU NIL fund, the players will have QR codes on their helmets. Innovative, even if it gives me that old school "get off my lawn" feeling.

Georgia's OL will be playing on Sundays

Georgia Over 10.5 Wins – Let’s see, Georgia is expected to be favored in every game, is the odds on favorite to win it all and I get spotted a game. I’m not going to out think this. I’ll take the Dawgs to go over 10.5 Even if there is an upset in there, say Clemson in game 1, (though I hate to use my get out of jail card in the first game), or @ Bama or @ Ole Miss on Go Jumbo weekend, you still get the win.

Georgia is loaded, returning 14 starters this season, including QB Carson Beck and an OL that will be playing on Sundays, The defense should return to its uber-elite standard with only four players from that side of the ball leaving to go pro. Last years squad finished ninth in the nation in total defense - No. 1 in the SEC - fifth in scoring D, and No. 1 in third down defense. They will be even better.

Here’s something to think about, the Dawgs have as many national championships as they do losses over the last three seasons.

Sarkisian is the on returning HC from the playoffs last year

Texas Under 10.5 wins – So Texas and Georgia have the same over/under line? One of the two teams (likely Texas) will use their free space when the play each other in Austin on October 19th.

Lose that game and Texas can’t afford another loss with games. Keep in mind one of those games is the Red River Shootout versus Oklahoma the week before they play UGA. Plus they play in the Big Sh!thouse in week 2, followed by a potential let down game against UT San Antonio, and end the season with a renewed rivalry against Texas A&M. And if they look ahead to that game, they Horns could get tripped up by Kentucky the week before.

The SEC is a big step up in competition from the Big 12 and Texas needs to replace WR Xavier Worthy - who set the NFL combine all-time record in the 40-yard dash and was a first-round selection by the Kansas City Chiefs, plus WR Andonai Mitchell (2nd round to Indianapolis) and RB Jonathon Brooks (2nd round Carolina). Even with all those players, Sarkisian teams habitually struggle to score inside the red zone. Last year they were 120th in scoring from inside the 20.

But, they do have this going for them. Texas is the only playoff team from last year that returns its HC.

Wyoming Over 6.5 Wins - Wyoming had the shortest transfer portal page of any Group of 5 team by a mile. They lost three total players to the portal and only one was even remotely a contributor last season. That speaks volumes to what the team thinks about new HC Jay Sawvel.

The Cowboys return nearly every starter on both sides of the ball The defense should be great again, they have the best home-field advantage in college football, and they have a phenomenal special teams.

Once again, Wyoming will be a tough out every week, and it beats the teams it’s supposed to. How many of the ten teams Wyoming lost to over the last two years finished with a losing record? None.

They open the season with Arizona State, Idaho, BYU, and North Texas, and they could easily get out to a 4-0 start. And then they get Air Force and San Diego State at home.

They could legitimately be 9-1 before getting to their hardest games of the season, in which case they'll have already cashed this total by a mile.

Remember - the Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16tth at the Westgate SuperBook.

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More 2024 Preseason Prep - Conference Realignment and playoffs

8/20/2024

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We will never forget you PAC 12

It’s finally here. College football is ready to kick off the 2024 season. But before we get into the first investments of the season and after having reviewed the new head college football head coaches, there’ some more critical items to go over – starting with the conference realignments.

The conferences, after years of tweaking the membership, went into warp drive this year. The PAC 12 melted down faster than Chernobyl, the Big 2 conferences (SEC and Big Ten) cherry picked the best of the other Power 5 (now Power 4), the ACC took the leftovers of the PAC 12. The Big 12 lost their two best teams so grabbed a mixed bag of PAC 12 teams - a full 15 teams changed conferences. Plus, one new member was added to Div 1A (Kennesaw State) bringing the total teams to 134.

Here’s how it all shook out starting with the conferences that stood pat.

The MAC has been steady eddy for years now and remains with these 12 teams - Akron, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo and Western Michigan.

The Mountain West remained on the sidelines but did schedule 15 games with the two leftovers from the PAC 12, Oregon State and Washington State. The 12 teams are - Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawai'i, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, Utah State and Wyoming.

The Fun Belt decided to stay put with these 14 teams - Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, James Madison, UL Lafayette, UL Monroe, Marshall, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Texas State and Troy.

Then the fun begins!

Army and Navy are now conference rivals too

The American Conference made one change swapping out SMU for Army. For the first time ever, Army and Navy will be conference rivals. The AAC now consists of 14 teams – Army, UNC Charlotte, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, Rice, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, South Florida and UT San Antonio.

The ACC watered down their membership by adding the dregs of the PAC 12 (Cal and Stanford) and added SMU, who were so desperate to get into a Power 4 conference, they forwent 9 years of ACC TV revenue. The 17 teams are - Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Pittsburgh, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.

The Big Ten lit the fuse on the PAC 12 melt down by grabbing the cream of the former legendary conference, Oregon, USC, UCLA and Washington. The Big Ten now boasts these 18 teams - Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, scUM, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin and, of course, your favorite team and mine, Michigan State.

The Big 12 grabbed the next tier of PAC 12 teams, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah but lost its two biggest brands in Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC. The Big 12 now consists of 16 schools - Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah and West Virginia.

Come on up SEC - the weather is fine

With the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, the SEC now has 16 teams - Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.

The loser in all the changes over the years is the Conference USA. It is by far the worst conference in Div 1A and is now just an entry level league for teams moving up from Div 1AA. The 10 team line up is – Florida International, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Sam Houston, UTEP and Western Kentucky.

Even with just two teams the PAC 12 is still a better conference than the CUSA – the forgotten two are Oregon State and Washington State. Keep them in your prayers.

With Army joining the AAC, there are now just three Independents – Connecticut, Notre Dame and Massachusetts.

Of course the biggest change is the 12 team playoff. Yes! About time. You could make the argument in years past that teams 5 and 6 should be in the playoffs and have a legit chance to win. But not teams 13, 14 and beyond.

This is how it will work - The four highest ranked conference champions will be seeded numbers 1-4 and receive a first-round bye. Seeds 5-12 will play each other in the first round. The higher seeded teams will play host in their first round games.

Another big yes! I can’t wait for a team like LSU have to play Wisconsin in Camp Randall with a cold snowy breeze whipping off Lake Mendota.

The Big Guy is entering a preseason pool on the 12 team playoffs. It’s a bit of a stretch but here is what I sent him.

If I get half right I'm doing pretty good

More to come including investing in win totals and week 0 picks

Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook. And don't forget your drink coupons

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Meet the 2024 New College Football Head Coaches

8/17/2024

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The 2024 college football season is quickly approaching. The first games kickoff August 24. It's time to do your preseason homework by reviewing the new head coaches. A lot of new ones this year (28) meaning that over 20% of the 2024 Div 1A programs will have a new general roaming the sidelines.

Here's what the Big Book of Guesses thinks about the new leaders

TEAM

In with the New
Out with the Old

What to Expect

In: Kalen DeBoer (Washington HC)
Out: Nick Saban (retired)

Strategically, a bad career move for DeBoer, You never want to be the guy who replaces a legend. You want to be the guy after him.

That said, he has an insane career record of of 104-12 as a head coach at Sioux Falls, Fresno State and Washington. He turned around a Washington program that was in disarray and led it to its best season in over 30 years and has developed a reputation as a QB guru.

But he's never coached in the SEC, and has no ties to the South, The intense internal pressure at Alabama to make the playoff every year as the floor of the program would be a challenge for anyone. He won't be up to it. The bar is too high.

In: Brent Brennon (San Jose State HC)
Out: Jedd Fisch (Washington HC)

His record is all over the map, He went a meager 34-48 in seven seasons but he did go to three bowls in the last four seasons. All losses. His best year was a 7-1 record and 24th ranking in 2020. A Covid season.

His biggest claim to fame is having done this at one of the most resource programs in Div 1A. Brennan has to fundraise to ensure his players can have breakfast in the football facility every day because the school can’t afford it. The Spartans practice on a field with broken field goal posts. Arizona has no such problems. Can he keep the Wildcats on the ascendency? I doubt it.

In: Spencer Danielson (DC and Interim HC)
Out: Andy Avolas (TCU DC)

Former HC Andy Avalos was launched midseason after going 5-5 and in danger of having the Broncos first losing season since 1997. Danielson left Boise State with no choice, he earned the full-time gig.

Avalos has been with the Broncos since 2017 in some capacity, working his way up to DC (he even served as interim head coach after Bryan Harsin left for Auburn). Danielson understands the job, the area and what the Boise State program is capable of - and he's shown them what he's capable of.

Boise will remain in the top tier of the MWC

In: Pete Lambo (South Carolina SC)
Out: Maurice Linguist (Alabama Co-DC and DB)

Lembo had a couple of nine win seasons at Ball State but never had the Cardinals in MAC contention and never won a bowl. Buffalo used to be real good under Lance Leipold. Linquist is not nearly that good but he will get the sone Bulls into irrelevant weirdly named bowls. Might even win a couple.

In: Manny Diaz (Penn State DC)
Out: Mike Elko (Texas A&M HC)

He couldn't win at Miami (FL) so why take this retread. Well, Diaz actually did win in Coral Gables His total number of wins from 2019 through 2022 was second only to Clemson in the conference and he made three straight bowl appearances to boot.

Diaz can recruit and just led Penn State's defense to its best showing in years (No. 2 overall). Duke wanted a defensive-oriented coach with experience at larger programs, and it got exactly what it wanted. Duke will remain a solid program overall

In: Willie Fritz (Tulane HC)
Out: Dana Holgorsen

Fritz keeps moving up the coaching ladder and has won at every stop, including 23 victories over the last two seasons at perennial dumpster fire Tulane, where he won a conference championship. He put Tulane in a New Year's Six game last year and nearly did it again this season.

Now he will try his magic for a program caught in a rut but in a Power conference. He knows recruiting Texas and Louisiana. Fritz coveted this job and will help Houston get competitive right away in a wide-open Big 12.

In: Kurt Cignetti (James Madison HC)
Out: Tom Allen (Penn State DC)

It started out well enough under Allen, with a eight-win season in 2019 – a mark Indiana hadn’t hit since 1993. Then started the Covid 2020 season at 6-2 year but cratered thereafter going 9-27 over the past three seasons.

Indiana turned to Curt Cignetti from James Madison. Cignetti, 62, has been incredibly successful in his five seasons at James Madison, going 52-9 overall with an appearance in the FCS National Championship and a 19-4 mark in FBS play over the past two years.

He's a former Nick Saban assistant (WR/RB) who had previous head coaching stints at Division II IUP and FCS Elon. Across all levels of college football, he is 119-35 as a head coach.

Cignetti has never had a losing season as a HC. Great hire. I was rooting for him to take over Michigan State. Indiana is no longer a joke in the Big 10.

In: Bob Chesney (Holy Cross HC)
Out: Curt Cignetti (Indiana HC)

James Madison hasn’t had a losing season since 2002. Chesney aims to keep that streak going. He was 44-16 at D2 Assumption and 44-21 at Holy Cross. He's made the playoffs seven of his last nine years.

Like Holy Cross, James Madison was a postseason regular in the FCS before making the jump to the FBS just a couple seasons ago so Chesney is familiar to what kind of work the Dukes have been doing.

Chesney will keep things rolling at JMU.

In: Sherrone Moore (Michigan OC)
Out: Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers HC)

Moore was substitute coach during Harbaughs multiple suspensions. He kept the asterisk intact and will take the fall with the inept NCAA slaps egregiously late and pathetically small sanctions on scUM.

He’s a stooge and scUMs inevitable slide back to Non New 6 bowls starts immediately. If Michigan were that good much better candidate would have been begging for the job. College football is smirking. Michigan gets what they wanted and what they deserve.

In: Jonathan Smith (Oregon State HC)
Out: Mel Tucker (Stupid is as stupid does)

I don't want to jinx it but this might be the best hire of the year. His lunch bucket, hard hat attitude is a perfect fit for Michigan State. He built Oregon State consistent winning team despite challenges in the recruiting department. Smith has proven that he is one of the best at developing talent throughout his coaching career.

It’ll take Smith some time to build a development factory like he had at Oregon State. In his first three years with the Beavers, Smith won just nine combined games. But Oregon State’s recruiting steadily improved and Smith eventually maximized the talent on the roster. He'll do the same at MSU.

In: Derek Mason (Former Vanderbilt HC)
Out: Rick Stockstill (Florida St Offensive Analyst)

Derek Mason is back in the Nashville area. This hiring is a bit of a controversial one, as Mason lacked a talented offense while at Vanderbilt (though he did beat Tennessee three times and reached two bowls) and will be taking over a program that for some unknown reason fired their long-time head coach Rick Stockstill. All Stocstill did was take the Blue Raiders to seven bowls over the last 11 seasons.

Mason went 27-55 in seven years with the Commodores but that was in the SEC with a school with tremendous academic standards (real ones not like those at a school we all know and hate) He won't have those issues are MTSU. It may take a couple of years to transform the program to a defensive stand out but if The Blue Raiders are patient, things will pay off

In: Jeff Lebby (Oklahoma St OC)
Out: Zach Arnett

Lebby has been successful as an OC at Ole Miss, UCF and Oklahoma. But word from Oklahoma is that Sooner Nation is not particularly heartbroken he left. Still, his Sooners ranked in the top 15 nationally the last two years and Mississippi State is ready to return to the Mike Leach days of emphasizing the pass. I miss the Pirate.

Mississippi State will always be fighting an uphill battle in the SEC but at least they will be fun to watch.

In: Jeff Choate (Texas DC)
Out: Ken Wilson (TCU defensive Analyst)

Choate led Montana State to back-to-back FCS playoff appearances in 2018-19, then jumped to Texas to be the DC. That led to Texas' only playoff appearance.

He has coaching experience all over the region including stops at Boise State (LB/ST) and Washington State (LB). With success at the FCS level and knowing the recruiting landscape, Choates is a good fit. The Wolfpack will challenge in the MWC.

In: Bronco Mendenhall (former BYU and Virginia HC)
Out: Danny Gonzales (Arizona ST)

Mendenhall did great at BYU but fizzled at Virginia. Is his heart still in it after a wo year hiatus from coaching?

Its actually a return home for Bronco. He was the DC at UNM from 1998 to 2002, where he and head coach Rocky developed a blitz-happy 3-3-5 defensive scheme that produced NFL first-round draft pick Brian Urlacher.

I'm not sure about this one. If the fire is back in the belly then it could work out. New Mexico is a tough place to coach. They haven't had a winning season since 2016. He will have them sniffing at a bowl and make a few too.

In: Tony Sanchez (NMSU WR and former UNLV HC)
Out: Jerry Kill (retired)

Ummm - no. Jerry Kill retired after one of the biggest turnarounds in coaching history, taking NMSU to a 10 win season. I could see staying in house but to take the WR coach. A coach who was 20-40 at UNLV without a winning season?

Sure he won six straight state titles at Bishop Gorman, a Las Vegas high school powerhouse (the 2014 HS national champs). But that is not nearly enough. NMSU is far tougher place to win that at UNLV. The Aggies return to a familiar spot, the basement of college football.

In: David Braun (DC and interim HC)
Out: Pat Fitzpatrick

Fitzgerald was dismissed after an investigation revealed too many player had to go through the car wash.. His DC, Braun was tabbed as the team's interim coach at the beginning of the season He beat all expectations, taking the Cats from 1-11 to the brink of bowl eligibility.

Northwestern rewarded Braun by removing the interim tag and making him the full-time head coach. Sure, the Wildcats could have tried for a splashier hire, but it's hard to argue with the job Braun has done so far. And are coaches really lining up to take on the real academic standards against the Big 10.

In: Trent Bray (Oregon St DC)
Out: Jonathan Smith (Michigan State HC)

If it works, keep it going. The Beavers are going to replace Jonathan Smith, a former Oregon State player turned assistant coach, with Trent Bray, a former Oregon State player turned assistant coach. The difference this time is that Smith was an offensive player for the Beavers and had an offensive mindset as a coach, while Bray is a former LB who served as the school's DC last season. Oregon State's philosophical 180 will likely backfire

Oregon State was dealt a bad hand when the PAC 12 dissolved underneath them and no one wanted the program. Recruiting will take a big hit with the uncertainty surrounding the programs' future. Bray may turn into a great coach, but might not get the players he needs.

An experienced head coach like Brennan or Bronco Mendenhall would be better prepared to handle the massive challenge ahead. It's not the spot for a rookie HC. Oregon State will revert to squeezing into early December bowls at best.

In: Sean Lewis (Colorado OC and former Kent State HC
Out: Brady Hoke (Retired)

Unlike Deion Sanders, who demoted Lewis as the offensive coordinator last season, San Diego State recognized that the 37-year-old remains a rising star. He was 18-10 in MAC play during his last four seasons at Kent State while producing exciting offenses.

Lewis will give the Aztecs an offensive identity that it has been lacking. The Aztecs stole a good one. SDSU will be a power again jn the MWC

In: Ken Niumatalolo (UCLA TE and former Navy HC)
Out: Brent Brennan (Arizona HC)

For 16 years at Navy, Niumatalolo was a hero. Then things went anchors down over his last three years. He reportedly won’t run a pure triple option at SJSU. New blocking rules have reduced its effectiveness.

Can he adapt? I doubt it. The other Spartans are back to hoping for bowls games at the end of the season.

In: Major Applewhite
(South Alabama OC)
Out: Kane Wommack (Alabama DC)

South Alabama hadn’t had a winning season in FBS before Wommack arrived. Wommack went 22-16 in three seasons, including a 10-3 record in 2022. The Sun Belt is loaded, 12 teams went bowling last year. Rather than mess with a good thing, South Alabama promoted from within. Applewhite’s offenses led the Sun Belt in yards per play last year and 3rd in scoring.

He has head coaching experience too. In two seasons at Houston he went 15-11. Applewhite is from Louisiana, played at Texas and coached at Texas, Alabama and Rice too so he knows the South. A logical move, the good times will roll with 7-10 win seasons being the norm.

In: Fran Brown (Georgia DB)
Out: Dino Babers (Arizona OC)

This is a big jump for Brown, going from a position coach (not even a DC) to a head coach in a Power Five conference. He's considered a top notch recruiter, currently ranked as the #1 recruiter in the nation, finishing No. 8 last year. But recruiting to Georgia is a whole lot esier than recruiting to Syracuse. Then again, he did make splash in the portal landing landing Ohio State starting QB Kyle McCord. .

Brown has just six years of experience at the power-conference level, all as a secondary coach. Prior to UGA, he was secondary coach at Baylor and before Temple and Rutgers. The New Jersey native knows the Northeast.

Is he ready to take over an ACC program. Doubt it. Syracuse will be looking again in 3-4 years.

In: Mike Elko (Duke HC)
Out: Jimbo Fisher

The hero returns home. Elko was Fisher's DC from 2018-21. He's aware of the expectations and the amount of chefs in the kitchen. .

He has a reputation as a no-nonsense football guy who will bring discipline and organization to a program brimming with talent. He took a perennial woeful Duke to 9 wins in his second year. He can develop players to compete at the highest levels.

Elko’s track record as a defensive mind speaks for itself and he’ll get the most out of the Aggies’ defense. A&M finally has a coach that can compete regularly in the SEC.

In: Gerad Parker (Notre Dame HC)
Out: John Sumrall (Tulane HC)

Not to sure about this one. Parker bounced among various Power 5 staffs before joining the Irish as tight ends coach in 2022. ND was ranked No. 9 nationally in Parker’s lone season as OC. Now he’s in charge of a program that expects conference titles.

There is a bit of a fit as he comes from the same coaching tree as other successful Trojan coaches. He worked with Neal Brown (West Virginia) and Jon Sumrall (Tulane) during their time at Troy.

Still, his lone HC coaching experience was a the interim HC at Purdue where he went 0-6. The Sun Belt has gotten a lot better, not sure if Troy will be.

In: John Sumrall (Troy HC)
Out: Willie Fritz (Houston HC)

One of the best hires of the season. In two seasons as the head coach ofTroy, Sumrall went 23-4 and won two Sun Belt championships. He has SEC experience as co-DC at his alma mater Kentucky. He worked in the Big Easy before as co-DC at Tulane.

At Troy, Sumrall boasted one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt, which will make for a smooth transition at Tulane which had one of the best defenses in the AAC.

Don't get too used to Sumrall Green Wave fans. He'll keep the winning going but then the 42 year old will move on.

In: Bryant Vincent (New Mexico OC)
Out: Terry Bowden

It's one of the weirder coaching career paths. He coached at the high school level in Alabama for a decade before becoming an assistant at South Alabama. In 2014, he became OC at UAB only to have the program shut down. So he went back to South Alabama until UAB reinstated its program 3 years later.

Four years into the role as OC at UAB, HC Bill Clark suddenly retired. Vincent steps in as interim HC, goes 7-6 and is canned. He then moves to New Mexico as OC and takes the 131st ranked offense to 35th. ULM was 106th last year. They will improve. Who knows about the defense. Might want to take the overs.

In: Scotty Walden (Austin Peay HC)
Out: Dana Dimel

Walden is an under the radar up-and-coming coach after finding success at Austin Peay. He posted a 26-14 record in four seasons with his win total increasing each season. His final season at APU resulted in a 9-3 record and their first ever FCS playoff berth.

He has coaching experience in the Div 1A with a four game stint as the interim HC at Southern Miss in 2020. He is a native Texan, and has ties to the high school coaches in the Lone Star state which will go a long way in recruiting. He should be able to gather enough talent to compete in the CUSA - a huge step forward for program that has only been to one bowl game and a 20-61 record since 2017.

In: Jedd Fisch (Arizona HC)
Out: Kalen DeBoer (Alabama HC)

Fisch took just three years to take Arizona from 1-11 in his first season to 10-3 in 2023 including a 38-24 Alamo Bowl win over Oklahoma.

Fisch is a solid bringing a wealth collegiate and NFL experience to the job. He coached at five Power 5 schools and seven NFL teams before finally getting his first head job at Arizona.

Husky fans should dial back expectations this year, however. They move to the Big Ten and lose a ton of talent. They pay off will come but not for a few years.

In: Jay Sawvell (Wyoming DC)
Out: Craig Bohl (Retired)

It's never easy to follow a legend, but that is what Sawvell is going to be tasked with after Bohl's success in Laramie. Bohl led the Cowboys to six bowl games over the last eight years

Sawvell has been on Bohl's staff as defensive coordinator and safeties coach since 2020. His previous stops include Wake Forest, Minnesota and several other FBS schools. He'll maintain the Cowboys reputation as a physical and disciplined football team.

But it's hard to imagine a first-time head coach jumping in for a legend and quickly contending for a conference title. Wyoming will take a step back in the MWC pecking order.

Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th 2024 at the Westgate SuperBook. Pat will forget his drink coupons - don't be Pat

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2024 NFL Draft Recap

4/28/2024

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The predictions were very profitable. I went 11-6 with most of the wins being +130 and above. It would have been a great day to have been in the SuperBook. Maybe some year

As far as the picks themselves

1. Caleb Williams
QB Southern Cal

This pick fell into the Bears lap and they went totally chalk (he went off at -20000 or bet $200 to win $1) taking WIlliams. All the talking heads say it was, best QB in the draft, future superstar and all that. I'll go contrarian here. Yeah, he was phenomenal 2 years ago when winning the Heisman but what about last year. Whole bunch of nothing.

The Bears suck at picking QBs. The curse continues. Williams is the starter but will end up being just average

2. Jayden Daniels QB LSU

This will be fun to see how it plays out. Is Maye or Daniels the better pick? Daniels was the safer pick coming on late in his career to win the Heisman. The inconsistency shown through his career at Arizona State and LSU disappeared, especially in the second half of the season, Daniels is on the older side and doesn't have elite physical tools as a passer, but his elusiveness and speed as a runner caused defenses major headaches.

3. Drake Maye
QB North Carolina

The Patriots were desperate for a QB and would be happy with any of the Top 3. They ended up with the riskiest pick but the one with the most upside. He's just 21 years old and has shown flashes of elite downfield, tight-window accuracy to go along with fantastic running ability for a bigger quarterback. He will be the best of the three

4. Marvin Harrison
WR Ohio State

The first non QB comes off the board. And the first Pro Bowler too. The Cardinals needed a receiver and they got a great one Harrison. He is as clean a prospect as they come. There was no drop in production going from C.J. Stroud to Kyle McCord. Kyler Murray needed a star WR after DeAndre Hopkins left the team. They got an upgrade.

5. Joe Alt
OT Notre Dame

The Chargers drafted the best player available, Alt is a prototypical left tackle at 6-foot-8 5/8 and 321 pounds, He's played like a first-rounder the past two years, not only shutting down edge rushers with pure size but attacking defenders in the run game, But the Chargers are passing on the top receivers despite having nothing at receiver. And they are picking a player to play right tackle who has zero experience playing right tackle. This selection could still pan out but there not a whole lot to like about it. - yet

6. Malik Nabors
WR LSU

Malik Nabers could have gone fourth or fifth and no one would have blinked, so the Giants getting him with the sixth pick id a gift. The Giants have sorely needed a No. 1 receiver ever since another LSU product, Odell Beckham Jr., was traded. They finally have one. Nabers’ quickness off the line, tight routes, strong hands and electric moves after the catch are reminiscent of Odell. Too bad his talents are going to be wasted on Danial Jones.

7. JC Latham
OT Alabama

The Titans needed a tackle and got someone who figures to be a top-flight right tackle in the NFL for a long time. for the next decade. With Alt off the board, this pick made the most sense for a team desperately in need of a real dude to join last year's first-rounder, Peter Skoronski. Bullyball is back in Tennessee!

8. Michael Penix
QB Washington

Talk radio is still blowing up in the ATL over this pick. The morning of the draft, one of the talking heads was saying that you take a QB when you want him not when you need him. I thought he was just doing a typical BS take but he was spot on with the prediction.

And how bad is Desmond Ritter turning out to be? he Falcons bring in Kirk Cousins for $180 million and then draft a QB who wont see the field for several years.

I like Penix but not here and not to the Falcons.

9. Rome Odunze
WR Washington

Bear fans are ecstatic. Odunze lining up with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will give NFC North teams some fits.

Odunze has good size and elite ball skills. While most receivers look to open separation windows with speed or route running, Odunze seems to relish jump balls and contested catches.

10. JJ McCarthy
QB Michigan

Overrated and over drafted. The Vikings were in a world of hurt losing an average QB in Kirk Cousins and ended up getting a QB with a lower ceiling in McCarthy. Think Mac Jones here.

He has modest arm strength, his ball placement is below average and he leaves throws behind moving targets, allowing defenders to challenge catches.

The Vikings will be moving on from this pick in a couple years.

11. Olu Fashanu
OT Penn State

Despite signing Tyron Smith and trading for Morgan Moses (both are 33 years old) this offseason, the team still decided to pick Fashanu. He has the build, intelligence and smooth movements for a tackle but he will need to develop behind the veterans.

This is a good pick for the long haul, but the Jets with Rodgers nearing the ned of his career, the Jets needed an impact player for 2024 (say TE Brock Bowers)

12. Bo Nix
QB Oregon

Quarterback thirst officially went too far. There was simply no need for the Broncos to force this pick here. This is reminiscent of Vikings drafting Christian Ponder or the Jaguars drafting Blaine Gabbert. Both quarterbacks were second-round prospects who were pushed way up because of position and need.

Bo Nix does not have the profile of the quarterback that’s going to save Denver. He does not have the arm talent of the quarterbacks picked ahead of him, and he lacks elite quickness as a runner.

Nix is closer to being a backup in the NFL than a franchise starter.

13. Brock Bowers
TE Georgia

So what does this say about last years Michael Mayer pick. Mayer disappointed as a rookie but maybe the Raider are trying to set up a stud 2 TE combo package. And whomever is the QB next year is going to get (another) weapon.

Bower ranks between George Kittle and Travis Kelce, He's agile and powerful after the catch, Bowers can line up at multiple spots for his new team while providing enough blocking to give running backs a chance to reach the sideline or find a seam.

14. Tallese Fuaga
OT Oregon State

With former first-round pick Trevor struggling, Ryan Ramczyk's career in doubt due to issues and the recent retirement of lineman James Hurst, the Saints had a screaming need to to address offensive tackle in Round 1.

Even though the Saints needed a left tackle and Fuaga has played right tackle, the pick still makes sense. Fuaga’s power off the ball, nasty attitude and ability to move to the second level made him a favorite among NFL personnel evaluators. This is a strong pick that gives the Saints some much needed flexibility and depth up front.

15. Lalatu Latu
Edge UCLA

The Colts are getting the top defensive player at No. 15 overall. That’s unreal. Latu would have gone eighth overall if Arthur Blank didn’t make a bone headed play. .

Latu's an inspirational story. A neck injury forced him to retire from football at Washington, but he came back with a vengeance the past two years at UCLA after being cleared to play. He combines the power to take tackles into the backfield, the strong hands to disengage for secondary rushes if quarterbacks step up to avoid him. He also has the closing spped to chase down RBs.

He might not be Von Miller or prime Khalil Mack, but he’s a talented player in his own right that should be an 8-10 sack guy in the NFL..

16. Brian Murphy
DT Texas

The Seahawks got one of the few truly disruptive interior defenders in the draft with Murphy, something they really needed. His skills as a run-stuffer, his quick first step making it tough to handle one-on-one, especially on reach blocks and he is an interior pressure machine made him worthy of a pick in the top half of the first round, something Seattle needed in its front four.

You have to love the value. . The Vikings loved Murphy enough to take him at 11 but blew it with the McCarthy pick. Seattle got a good one here.

17. Dallas Turner
Edge Alabama

Turner fell in the draft due to medical issues but Minnesota saw value and surrendered third- and fourth-round picks next year to move up just six spots to nab him at 17. Turner is a great talent, and his 4.46 40 turned a lot of heads at the combine. He's a rugged defender and the potential to be a dynamite edge defender in the NFL. but there’s still s high risk with this pick.

18. Amarius Mims
OT Goeriga

Mims is a large human (6-7 3/4, 340 pounds), one of the few players able to match the size of Cincinnati starting left tackle Orlando Brown (6-8, 345) and free-agent Trent Brown (6-8, 355). Mims' power and ability make running around his pass protection extremely difficult, an important feature in protecting QB Joe Burrow.

Not only does he have the best technique of this years class but he is a people-mover in the run game, as well. There are questions however, coming off an ankle injury last season and playing a total of just 775 snaps in three seasons with the Bulldogs.

19. Jared Verse
Edge Florida State

Jared Verse isn’t close to the other two edge rushers who were chosen earlier. He's not be as dynamic or bendy off the edge as them and he did see a drop in production from 2022 (17.5 tackles for loss with nine sacks) to 2023 (12 tackles for loss with nine sacks), Still, he looked plenty agile last season and has the power and relentlessness to accumulate sacks on primary and secondary moves. His strength in the run game should not be overlooked, either.

Verse likely belonged in the 20s and for your first first round pick since 2016 its a bit disappointing for a team that hadn’t drafted in the first round since 2016. Overall a safe, solid pick for the Rams at this point in the draft.

20. Troy Fautuna
OG Washington

Fautanu has all the skills necessary to be a long-term starter on the offensive line, which is something that Pittsburgh still needs. The Steelers really need a center. Troy Fautanu is viewed mostly as a right tackle or guard, but he can play center as well.

He was a very effective pass protector for Washington with his 34 1/2-inch arms, natural bend and quickness. He might move inside because of his toughness and mobility in the run game. He joins last year's first-rounder, Broderick Jones who will be tasked with protecting the QB. Too bad their talents will be wasted on QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.

He comes with some major risk, too as he was flagged medically by some teams.

21. Chop Robinson
Edge Penn State

Robinson is a raw pass rusher, but he’s found himself in a good spot playing for new Dolphins DC Anthony Weaver. Robinson has all the tools in the world to become an elite pass rusher in the NFL if he can get a few signature moves down.

Robinson’s range was in the 20s, so the Dolphins are getting appropriate value. They needed a pass rusher to hound all the great quarterbacks in the AFC, and Robinson will help them do that.

22. Quinyon Mitchell
CB Toledo

Wow, not a Georgia or Alabama player? Not only that, but GM Howie Roseman did not need to make a move upwards to find a great value at a position of need. Mitchell's ability to run a 4.33 40 at the combine at 6-foot and 195 pounds locked his spot in the first round. His six interceptions and 46 pass breakups during his time at Toledo showed his closing speed and ability to play the ball, as did his work against top receivers at the Senior Bowl. This pick might be the steal of the draft when we look back.

23. Brian Thomas Jr
WR LSU

Calvin Ridley is gone but won't be missed. He was problematic in the locker room. But the Jags will miss his production. Thomas is an explosive wide receiver who has the physical frame that the Jaguars needed in their wide receiver room. Thomas is a bit raw on some of the finer points of wide receiver play, but there’s no doubting his potential to be a truly dynamic playmaker in the NFL.

Give the Jags brownie points for trading down and still landing Thomas. They could easily have ly taken him at No. 17 without any complaints.

24. Terrion Arnold
CB Alabama

I'll bet the Lions were absolutely shocked that Terrion Arnold was still on the board at No. 24. He wasn’t going to last until No. 29, Detroit moving up five spots to land someone who was considered the top cornerback in the draft by some makes sense. Detroit desperately needed a cornerback in the wake of Cam Sutton’s arrest, and Arnold seems like an instant upgrade. Arnold has a chance to be the best cornerback on Detroit’s roster from Day 1.

Time will tell, however, if trading a 3rd round pick to Dallas instead of waiting for Arnold's former teammate, Kool=Aid McKinstry or Nate Wiggins later in the round would have made more sense.

25. Jordan Morgan
OT Arizona

There was little doubt the Packers were looking at offensive tackles early in the draft following the release of David Bakhtiari. Morgan's size and game are very similar to the former Pro Bowler’s, He's a solid, smooth pass protector who doesn't get beat with speed very often, but he can struggle against power rushers and isn't a dominant run blocker. There’s some questions with Morgan’s toughness too. Green Bay is smart to do something to protect Jordan Love, so this seems like a solid choice.

26. Graham Barton
C Duke

Barton is a stud offensive lineman who can play all five positions up front. He was announced as a center, so he may wind up on the interior after playing left tackle at Duke. He's well-equipped for the move. He’s the most versatile lineman in the draft and the Buccaneers may have just gotten a steal.

Barton is going to be very useful for the Buccaneers, who have immense problems in the interior of the offensive line. He could have gone a bit earlier than this, so there is value in the pick too.

27. Darius Robinson
Edge Missouri

Robinson isn’t a bad player, but he’s not the most dynamic guy on the defensive line. He’s a steady player who should be a solid piece for the Cardinals’ defensive line rotation. Robinson will help fill a huge need for the Cardinals but that’s not necessarily the type of player that feels like a need in the first round. Still, he’s someone that will help the Cardinals up front, who lost so much talent on the defensive line in recent years.

28. Xavier Worthy
WR Texas

No one should be surprised that the Chiefs selected a receiver. It was already a need before Rashee Rice got into trouble. The Chiefs add some speed to their wide receiver room and some playmaking for Patrick Mahomes. Everyone expected Worthy to run fast at the combine because of his track background and explosiveness after the catch. Then, a record-setting 4/21 record setting 40, locked his place in the first round.

A 165-pound player in the first round is a bit of a tough sell. Worthy is certainly lean (5-11 1/4, 165 pounds), but he’s not significantly smaller than Eagles receiver DaVonra Smith (6-0, 170). Worthy brings the potential to produce chunk plays, which was a need for the defending champions. It will be worth trading up for Worthy.

29. Tyler Guyton
OT Oklahoma

The Cowboys needed a left tackle to develop and at least have a prospect now in Guyton. He’s got a bit of a way to go as far as technique is concerned, but the physical tools and frame to grow into something for the long term are there. Guyton might have a lower floor than some of the other tackle prospects, but the upside is still here. Overall, this was a sharp move by the Cowboys.

With Troy Fautanu gone, the Cowboys liked Tyler Guyton and Graham Barton the most as candidates for No. 24 overall. They could have taken either there, but they moved down five spots and acquired most assets, and yet they still got their man. This was excellent drafting after last year’s debacle.

30. Nate Wiggins
CB Clemson

Wiggins' recovery speed stood out on tape and was confirmed with a 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. He's not a physical tackler. Wiggins weighed just 173 pounds (measuring 6-foot-1 3/8 inch) at the combine, which is similar to last year's lean first-round corner for Washington, Emmanuel Forbes, who struggled as a rookie.

He fills a position of need for the declining Ravnes secondary but he comes with some risk. Wiggins is a rangy, fast corner, but he needs to add weight and strength before he can be a real contributor for the Ravens defense.

31. Ricky Pearsall
WR Florida

Rumors of a trade demand by Brandon Aiyuk likely led to the selection of Pearsall. His silky smooth routes and solid hands were evident with the Gators and at the Senior Bowl but Florida's very average passing attack didn’t help his cause. Pearsall could have been had later than this.

32. Xavier Legette
WR South Carolina

Wide receiver was a huge need, even with Diontae Johnson on the team. They needed to add a bigger player to their wide receiver room.

His size/speed combination is impressive, but he was a one-year full-time starter for South Carolina and there will be comparisons with other pass catchers who were available, including Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey, as all of their careers unfold.

Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is November 16 at the Westgate SuperBook

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2024 NFL Draft Predictions

4/24/2024

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Caleb Williams is the heavy favorite to be the overall #1 pick

The NFL Draft comes to Motown. And I can’t make it. The draft is on my bucket list but I always seem to be on the road when it occurs. Maybe next year. Then again, my chances of being in Green Bay are pretty remote.

No need to get to your local watering hole too early. Go ahead and get a good seat and order your favorite adult beverages but there won’t be much excitement in the first 7 picks. The consensus is

Chicago – QB Caleb Williams, USC
Washington – QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
New England – QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Arizona – WR Marvin Harrison, Ohio State
Minnesota – QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan
Malik Nabors – WR LSU
Joe Alt – OT Notre Dame

There is a bit of drama around whether Daniels or Maye will go first but the draft will likely start with these seven. There’s not much investment opportunities either. The returns are too low.

The Rams will be making a 1st round pick for the first time since 2016 and are targeting Jared Verse

So after doing my home work, here’s the draft Investments I’ll be making:

From a team's 1st pick by position I’ll go with:

13. Las Vegas – Offensive Line (either Fauga OT Oregon State or Latham OT Alabama) odds +175
18. Cincinnati – Offensive Line (either Mims OT Georgia or Fuaga OT Oregon State) odds -130
19. LA Rams – Defensive Line/Edge (likely Jared Verse Florida State) odds +180
22. Philadelphia – Cornerback (likely Quinyon Mitchell Toledo) odds -145
25. Green Bay – Cornerback – (likely Cooper DeJean Iowa) odds +235
26. Tampa Bay – Cornerback (either Jackson Powers-Johnson Oregon or Kool-Aid McKinstry Alabama) odds +220
28. Buffalo – Wide Receiver (likely Brian Thomas Jr, LSU) odds -280

I have Latu in the Top 10 either to Chicago or Atlanta

From a where a player will be drafted I’ll go with:

Rome Odunze WR Washington – over 8.5 odds +120
Bryan Murphy DT Texas - over 13.5 odds +135
Troy Fautuna G/OT Washington – under 15.5 odds +135
Laiatu Latu DL/Edge UCLA – under 16.5 odds -150
Graham Barton OT Duke – over 21.5 odds +215

A couple more fun investments:
Total 1st round draft picks from the Big 10 – over 5.5 odds -140
Laiatu Latu DL/Edge UCLA – Top 10 pick odds +125

Here's hoping the inevitable trades (the over / under is 6.5) don't blow everything up.

I’ll recap all the 1st round draft picks next week.

Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is November 16 at the Westgate SuperBook

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2024 March Madness - The Streak Continues

3/18/2024

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Izzo was getting a little worried as Sunday rolled on

Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for four teams no one else has a shot at the championship, until next season that is. One and done in bowls just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.

That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still playing!

And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)

And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools

1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.

Fairleigh Dickinson upset #1 seed Purdue in the first round last year

This year it’s going to be a hard rule to follow. We had high expectations going into the year, ranked #4 and a couple of big wins early on. But overall, we could never seem to get everyone playing up to Izzo standards all at the same time. The defense was generally there but the offense was excruciating. After back to back seasons as 7 seeds we come in as an 9. The worst possible seed. If we win, we face a 1 seed, North Carolina, in their backyard, Charlotte. But at least Izzo streak of consecutive appearances continues though it was a bit of a nail biter on Sunday.

As much as I doubt Sparty can make it to the Final Four, the rule is the rule. I’ll just make sure I have several backup brackets, just in case.

2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to the Indianapolis.

3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. Last year, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round (more on them later). Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 150-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.

While MSU upset #2 seed Marquette in the 2nd round

4. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. In 2023 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round (State upsetting 2 seed Marquette!). Same thing happened in 2022 and 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. Looks like a trend, take a 2 seed to lose this round and another in the second round.

5. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over 3 seeds. But, in the last two years, the 3 seeds have gone 4-0 in the first round. Last year they went 3-1 in the second round, In 2022 they went 2-2 in the second round. That said, there is some history for 14 over 3 upsets. In 2016, Stephen F Austin upset West Virginia. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. It hasn’t paid off the last two years, but consider putting a 14-3 upset to add a little spice in your bracket.

6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Wow! In 2021, Oregon State upset Tennessee. In 2022, the 12 seeds went 2-2 in the first game. In fact, 12 seeds win at a higher rate at better than a third of the time (35%) So have a little fun - take a 12 (or two) to beat a 5!

While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (San Diego St, St Marys, Wisconsin and Gonzaga this year)

Lots of folks taking Samford to beat the tourney challenged Kansas

7. This is where I usually say don’t bet on Kansas. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year other than 2019 and 2021. But until 2022 when they won it all, they made it to the Final Four once (2012).

In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened in 2018. In 2019, they won one game and then got launched by a #5 seed. In 2021, they got bounced in the second round by 6 seed USC.

That said, in 2022 they won it all but reverted to form last year as they didn’t make to the Sweet 16 as a 1 seed, This year, not much is expected from Kansas as they are a 4 seed. The talking heads have caught on to Kansas and many are expecting them to get bounced by 13 seed Samford. Go ahead and bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks.

#2 seed Arizona didn't make it to the Sweet 16 last year either

This year I’m adding Purdue. In 2021, they got bounced in the first round as 4 seed. In 2022 the got eliminated in the second round as 3 seed, In 2023, they got went home, losing their first game as a 1 seed. Only the second time ever a 1 seed went down on the first day. The Boilers have traditionally underachieved. Chris is betting on his alma mater to win it all. Don’t be like Chris.

8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last nine Tournaments, 26 of the 80 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. Last year, of the eight top 2 seeds, four went down during the first weekend including our favorites Purdue and Kansas. In 2022 1 seed Baylor and 2 seed Auburn got dismissed. In 2021 it was 1 seed Illinois, and 2 seed Iowa failing to make the Sweet Sixteen The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.

9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. Last year it was 9 seed Florida Atlantic making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 100 Final Four teams, 78 were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one or two non top four seeds.

10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds.

On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 12.1. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 4 times over the last 23 years (2000, 2006 and 2011 and last year!).

The U was celebrating as no #1 seed made it to the Elite Eight last year

Last year the total was 23, a result a couple of sigmas outside the norm. In fact, last year was the first time that a 1 seed didn’t even make it to the Elite Eight. Probably an anomaly, Target something in the 12-15 range with your Final Four teams.

11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.

12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year, two First Four teams advanced, FDU and Pitt.

13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 25 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.

14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be a little suspicious of Creighton, Duke, Tennessee and Alabama.

The last team west of Texas to win it all? Arizona 1997

15. Along those same lines, since Arizona won it all in 1997, no team west of Texas has been crowned champs.

16. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:

a. Starting with the Final Four – In the West – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. There’s 9 of your 13-15 points right there. Doesn’t leave a lot of room for lower seeds. The Spartans got a crappy seed though. As a 9 seed, if they win, they play a one seed. And not any old 1 seed. North Carolina is 34-2 when playing a tournament game in the Tar Heel state. Adding to the misery, Michigan State didn’t beat a single NCAA Tournament team in a game played outside the state of Michigan.

b. In the East – UConn. It’s been 17 years since there’s been back to back champions (Florda 2006-7) but this could be the year. By the way, the Huskies are the favorites to win the tourney. Since 2000, the pre-tournament favorite has won it all 9 times.

c. In the South – It’s a coin flip between Houston and Kentucky. Heads, it’s Houston.

d. In the Midwest – Kansas, Tennessee, Creighton and Purdue are out. This bracket is a hot mess. I don’t like 5 seed Gonzaga or 6 seed South Carolina either. I guess I’ll go with Edey in his final season and take Purdue. Besides, the only other 1 seed to lose in the first round, Virginia, won it all the next year.

McNeese State took down our little sisters 87-76 back in December

17. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 12. Right at the metric.

18. For my First Four upset the winner of Colorado/Boise State (likely a finally healthy Buffs squad) to take down Florida.

19. For the 14 over 3 upset– I’ll go with one of my favorite mid majors, Colgate, to beat Baylor. I’ll be rooting for Oakland too over Kentucky but I just can’t quite pull the trigger and pick them, however. I’ll do it in one of my back up brackets.

20. For my 13 over 4 upset I’ll go with Samford and “Bucky Ball”, a full-court pressing, pushing the tempo, gambling for turnovers, ranking top 10 in the nation in pace, 3-point percentage and turnovers forced, over Kansas.

21. I’ll take two 12s over 5s. First, McNeese State over Gonzaga. McNeese State has 4 players who average over 40% hitting 3s. And, James Madison over Wisconsin. These teams are evenly matched. JMU has one of the best three point defenses and can pull the upset.

22. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? Michigan State over North Carolina qualifies. And I’ll take Colorado to continue rolling over Marquette possibly missing star PG Tyler Kolek.

Put it all together and here is my 2024 winning bracket

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