Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for four teams no one else has a shot at the championship. One and done in bowls just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.

That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.

And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)

​And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools 

1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and  I sheepishly picked someone else.  
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This year it’s going to be a hard rule to follow. In January, the Spartans were playing for a number one seed. By early March the were headed straight to the bubble. A couple of key wins over Purdue and Wisconsin got us right in between – a 7 seed. It’s better than last year when we were an 11 seed and lost a play in game to UCLA. And the same as last year, the offense can go AWOL for maddeningly long stretches while at the same time, an eruption of turnovers occur.
 
But the rule is the rule. I’ll just make sure I have several backup brackets, just in case.

2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to the Indianapolis.

3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round.  Can it happen again? Nah, the top seeds are 143-1 since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.

4. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. In 2021the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round. In 202 they all won the first game and the second round but then went 2-2 in the third round. In 2018, the 2 seeds also won all their first game and then went 3-1 in the second round. Prior to that in 2015 all four number 2’s advanced and then went 2-2 in the second round.  The same thing happened in 2014. No definitive trend there, what the heck, take a 2 seed to lose this round. And definitely feel free to drop one by the second round.

5. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over #3 seeds. The results last year were the same as the 2 seed – 3-1 in the first round but all three advanced to the Sweet 16. There is some  history for 14 over 3 upsets. Last year, Abilene Christian upset Texas. In 2016, Stephen F Austin upset West Virginia. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. Put in a 14 seed for a little spice in your bracket. Don’t be afraid to take a 14 over a 3.

6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdon’t and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Wow! Last year, Oregon State upset Tennessee.  So have a little fun - take a 12 (or two) to beat a 5!​
 
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all.

7. Kansas is in the tournament again. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year until 2019 when they were a #3 and again in 2021. But they suck in the tourney. They only made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight.

​Same thing happened in 2018. In 2019, they won one game and then got launched by a #5 seed. Last year, they got bounced in the second round by 6 seed USC. Go ahead and bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks well before the Final Four.​

8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last nine Tournaments, twenty of the sixty four No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. Last year it was 1 seen Illinois, and 2 seeds Iowa and Ohio State failing to get past the first weekend. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.  
 
9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 92 Final Four teams, 74 (80%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed. Last tournament it was 11 seed UCLA (hey, that was our spot – damn Bruins)

​10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.6.  If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 22 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). Last year the total was 15. You are going to need at least one non #4 seed in your bracket.

11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble trams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.

12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was UCLA who made it all the way to the Final Four.  
 

​13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 23 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.  

14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be a little suspicious of Baylor, Auburn and Illinois.

15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:

a. Starting with the Final Four – In the West – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. There’s 7 of your 11.4 points right there.

​b. In the East – Baylor is banged up and they violate rule 14. I despise 2 seed Kentucky, if 3 seed Purdue makes it Chris will be even more unbearable so I’ll go with UCLA.  

c. In the Midwest – With Kansas being Kansas and Auburn violating rule 14 I’ll take a flyer on the Friars from Providence. .

d. In the South – Arizona is the #1 seed for a reason. The Wildcats.

​16.  That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 16. A bit high, but putting State in at 7 and 4 seeds Providence and UCLA drives the number.
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17. For my First Four upset I’ll take the winner of Rutgers / Notre Dame to take down Alabama. .

18. For the 14 over 3 upset– None this year. Colgate was everyone’s (thought not mine) sweetheart pick to upset Arkansas. Now the face another SEC team, Tennessee. I’m expecting the Vols to have a bit of a run this year.
 
19. For my 13 over 4 upset – Vermont is on a roll and I’ll take them to defeat the Razorbacks. And since I didn’t take a 14 over a 4, I’ll double down on a 13 over a 4 with the red hot Vermont Catamounts beating New Mexico State.

20. I’ll take New Mexico State to defeat UConn as my #12 over #5. Sorry Big Al. Let’s see if the Big Al rule applies to basketball.

21. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32?  Plenty, Kansas if course. Baylor’s​ injured and goes down and, of course, Izzo ends Coach Ks career in the second round.
 
Put it all together and here is my 2021 winning bracket​​​​​

Good Luck and GO GREEN!

The playoffs have been fantastic so far. After all four games in the divisional round were decided on the last play, the championship games were both decided by a FG – one in OT and the other inside the two minute warning.

That second game cost me a wager. I was torn by the hook on the Rams Niner game and it cost me. Still, I’m 8-4 in the playoffs so I’m sitting pretty going into the Big Game.

Before I get into handicapping the game, here’s some fun facts to amuse your friends and to challenge them with a little trivia:
If Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow wins, he will be the first player ever to win the Heisman, win the College national championship, be the #1 pick and win a Super Bowl.
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There have been three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks to wear No. 9 on their jersey. Jim McMahon (1985), Drew Brees (2009), Nick Foles (2017). It’s guaranteed to grow to four this year as both Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow wear No. 9.

Speaking of Stafford and Burrow, this is the second time that quarterbacks who were the #1 picks in the NFL draft have faced off in the Super Bowl. The first was in 2015 when Peyton Manning (Tennessee) and the Broncos beat Cam Newton (Auburn) and the Panthers.

That Super Bowl was also the last time two SEC quarterbacks started. Including this year’s Super Bowl, there have been four overall. The other two were Super Bowl XLI when Manning and the Colts beat Rex Grossman (Florida) and the Bears. The first was way back in 1977 when Kenny Stabler (Alabama) and the Raiders trounced Fran Tarkenton (Georgia) and the Vikings 32-14.
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Speaking of 4 – both teams were seeded number 4 in the playoffs. It’s the first time no teams seeded 1-3 from either conference made it to the Super Bowl.
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Rams head coach Sean McVay and Bengals head coach Zac Taylor will be a combined 74 years and 299 days old on Sunday. It's the youngest combined age for the two Super Bowl head coaches by almost nine years. That’s in stark contrast to last year’s Super Bowl when Tampa Bay's Bruce Arians and Kansas City's Andy Reid set the Super Bowl record for oldest combined ages at 131 years and 87 days old.

But McVay and Taylor won’t be the youngest head coaches in the four major sports to reach the finals. That record belongs to 36 year old Scotty Bowman (Canadiens) and 37 year old Harry Sinden (Bruins) in the 1970 Stanley Cup but Woz knew that.

McVay is only the fifth coach to reach the Super Bowl twice in his first five years as a coach. The first three are all in the Hall of Fame – Tom Flores (Raiders) Joe Gibbs (Washington) and Jimmy Johnson (Cowboys). The other HC is Mike Tomlin with the Steelers who is still coaching and will likely make the HOF too.
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Regardless of who wins, it will mark the 17th season in a row that a team has not repeated as champion, the longest drought in Super Bowl history.
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This will be the eighth time  the LA area has hosted a Super Bowl. Two of the Super Bowls were historic. The first Super Bowl was played in the Memorial Coliseum when Green Bay defeated the Kansas City Chiefs. Also in the Coliseum, Miami capped off the only undefeated season in NFL history when they beat Washington in Super Bowl VII. 

​Cooper Kupp will be the first player ever to lead the league in receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs and make it to the Super Bowl. 

The 2nd place wide receiver in combined receiving yards was Ja’Marr Chase with Cincinnati. This will be the first Super bowl to feature the first and second place WRs.

In the last 10 Super Bowls played in California, the over has gone 10-1 hmmmmmmm

The team that has won the coin toss has lost seven straight Super Bowls. Double hmmmmmm.
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OK, enough fun facts. You want some tips on making wagers, your friends want tips, even your Grandma who never watches sports probably has some action on the Super Bowl. So here we go:

Cincinnati +4.0 vs LA Rams – After finishing last in the AFC North last year with a 4-11-1 record, it didn’t appear the Bengals were headed anywhere this year after a 5-4 start including losses to the Bears and the Jets. The offense kicked in, averaging 26.9 points PPG while going 8-3 including wins over defending AFC champs Kansas City and #1 seed Tennessee.

The combination of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins has put opposing defenses on their heels and if teams overcompensate against the pass, Cincinnati hands the ball of the 1,200 yard rusher Joe Mixon.
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Los Angeles went all in this year kicking Jared Goof and two first round picks to get Matthew Stafford . A 7-1 start had everyone thinking the Rams were the best in the league. But a three game losing streak including a second loss to the Niners put doubts in everyone’s minds. The dropped to sixth in Super Bowl handicapping. 

So, the Rams doubled down acquiring Von Miller and OBJ as the season rolled on. The efforts have paid off as the Rams have gone 10-1 since that slump.
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Cincinnati will be playing loose as they are young team with nothing to prove. The Rams have the weight of being the favorite at home no less. Many of the players figure this may be their last chance to get a ring. If Stafford is feeling the pressure, he may look more like the eight turnover QB during the last month of the season than the one turnover player of the playoffs.
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Cincinnati will likely run at Aaron Donald. He’s great at getting to the QB but not so much at run defense. The Niners were able to win using this strategy. But San Francisco has a Pro Bowl center and guard. The Bengals OL is not nearly as good. There’s a reason that the Rams are 14-3 against teams not named the Niners. 

If it turns into a wide open game with passes aplenty the Rams should have the advantage. Cooper Kupp has been amazing all year and should have a field day against the suspect Bengal secondary. Stafford has steadily shown more confidence in OBJ as the season progressed taking the top off defenses allowing even more room for Kupp to operate.

That said, the matchup of Jalen Ramsey against Ja”Marr Chase will be one for the ages. Chase is fantastic with yards after the catch. Ramsey can cover all the routes and is very physical. However, the Rams at 2nd worst in allowing YACs.
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The special teams are about even. Rams kicker Matt Gay was the best kicker during the regular season making 94% of his FGs and missing just one XP. but has shown some yips during the post season missing two FGs. Chortles were heard through draft rooms across the league when Cincinnati drafted Evan McPherson in the 5th round last year. But those snickers went away when he made an NFL rookie record 12-12 in the playoffs including several from beyond 50 yards. 

Like last week’s Rams game, I like the Rams but I’m worried that the spread might be a tad too big. The way the playoffs have been going this game could end up with a walk off FG. Therefore, I’m going to take the points and put a Mega on the Bengals.

But just in case the Rams and Stafford get going against the Bengal’s defense I’ll put another Mega bet on the over 48.5. And since it’s the last football game of the season, I’ll parlay those picks at +265 with a quatloo.
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Now, of course, there are plenty of other ways to bet the Super Bowl from the opening coin toss (heads and tails both at -102) to the color of the Gatorade bath at the end of the game (orange +200, yellow/green +350 and blue +400)

Here are some other fun prop bets:

How long will the national anthem be (Mickey Guyton) – 1 minute, 55 seconds is the line: Mickey is known as quicky Mickey for her short national anthems. I’ll take the under

Will there be a doink +400 – sure why not

Who will the MVP thank first – team/teammates +100; City/fans +275; God/religion +350; family +800; coaches +1600; team owner +2000; any other +1000 – Mrs. Doofus trooped us off to church today so I’ll go with the big guy upstairs at +350

Who will be the MVP – I’ll hedge the Bengals covering and take Stafford at +100. I also get the middle if the Rams to win but not cover.
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Will there be an octopus – I had to look that one up. All I could think of was the Red Wings and the playoffs but it’s a player scoring a TD and the subsequent 2 point conversion. Since I got that far I’ll take the yes at +1200
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Sony Michel rushing yards – I’ll take the over 20.5. He’s averaged 24 YPG in the playoffs against better defenses than the Bengals. One good run and he has the over. 

Good luck and remember the 2022 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 29 at the Westgate Super Book

I’m 7-3 so far in the playoffs. With three games left in the NFL, two Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl, I’m guaranteed a winning NFL playoffs.

In the first round all four favorites won. Last week, as expected, it reversed with the underdogs going 3-1. It would have been 4-0 for the dogs but a bad beat by Kansas City over Buffalo. The Bills were getting 3.5 as the teams entered OT (Don’t get me going on Buffalo not squibbing the kick with 13 seconds left). If the game is decided by a FG either way I win but the Chiefs won the toss and get a TD to win by six. (Don’t get me going on the NFL OT rules either).
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It cost me a prop bet but what a phenomenal weekend of football. All four games were decided on the final play! Here’s hoping this week is just as exciting.
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So, will the reverse rhythm continue with the favorites covering this week or will the underdogs keep it going? Here’s what I have:

Cincinnati +7.0 @ Kansas City – 25 points in the last two minutes! It was an all timer of the game. And it elevated Mahomes and the Chiefs to even loftier heights. The public is pounding the Chiefs to make it three Super Bowl in a row and succeed the Patriots as the next dynasty.

But the game was an outlier. Teams have begun to figure out how to limit Mahomes by setting 2 safeties deep the force Mahomes to be patient and work his way down the field.

​Early in the season, Mahomes struggled against this strategy as he threw pick after pick. The Chiefs started out  3-4. He then settled down, took what the defenses gave him as they went 9-1 to finish out the season. The lone loss? 34-31 to the Bengals.
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The Bengals can match the KC talent with Burrow, Ja’marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Last week Kansas City blanketed Stefon Diggs only to have Gabriel Davis (who?) go foo for 291 yards and 4 TDs. If they focus on Rookie of the year candidate Chase, either Higgins or Boyd are capable of Davis type numbers. 

If he can get the ball to them that is. Burrows was sacked a playoff record nine times last week. KC will try to exploit the terrible Bengal OL. Too bad they were 29th this year in sacks.

For all the fireworks in the passing game these teams can put together, it’s the running game that will likely decide the contest, The best defense against Mahomes is to keep him on the sidelines. The Bengals are going to pound Joe Mixon all day long to keep this game close and then have the Evan McPherson decide the game. McPherson has been lights out during the playoffs, scoring 27 of the Bengals 45 points.
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It’s a revenge game for the Chiefs at home but the spread is too high. I’ll take Cincinnati and the points as they use Mixon to keep the game close. Make it a Mini Mega.

LA Rams -3.5 @ San Francisco – Is there a hotter team in the playoffs than the Rams and Stafford? They dominated the Cardinals in week 1 34-11 and then jumped to a 27-3 over the defending champs Tampa Bay last week before the Bucs came storming back. Stafford is shredding secondaries with a 131.8 passer rating, 4 TDs and no picks in the playoffs. Cooper Kupp has been amazing all season and now Stafford is getting the ball to OBJ too.
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However, Kyle Shanahan has been kryptonite to Sean McVay’ and the Rams. The Niners is 2-0 against the LA this year, making it six wins in a ro. The Niners are able to attack the weakness of the Rams defense, the middle of the field with Kelce, Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell. Attacking the middle negates Rams star DB Jalen Ramsey while the running game negates the stellar Rams DL. The plan consistently works.

The Rams will try to counter by getting up early and forcing the Niners to rely on Garoppolo to win the game. San Francisco has so little faith in Garoppolo that in a crucial 3rd and 7 in the final drive against Green Bay, they handed it off to Deebo. He got the first. Lost in the Niners playoff run is that Garoppolo has thrown picks in four straight games including two against the Rams in week 18. 

I’m really torn in this game. The Niners defense just stoned Rodgers and Green Bay and should be able to limit LA. And San Francisco has proven they can move the ball on the Rams. Do I go with Niners and the hook or do I trust McVay to finally solve the Niners riddle?

Then again, LA has been red hot and if it weren’t for three late turnovers, would have blown out a Bucs defense as good as San Frans. Sometimes it just comes down to angle and that is injuries, San Francisco star LT Trent Williams hasn’t practiced all week and is a game time decision. Even if he plays, he will be hobbled giving Aaron Donald the edge he needs. Deebo Samuel was knocked out the game twice too so he may not be 100%.
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I’ll go with the Rams looking for years of revenge, at home and a chance to go to the Super Bowl to cover. Just a quatloo though. 

Last week the favored teams went 5-1 against the spread. I’s going the opposite this week taking the dogs, starting with:
 
Cincinnati +4.0 @ Tennessee – Derrick Henry is back baby. The public is pounding the Titans moving this line up to 4.0. But Cincinnati is pretty good against the run (5th in YPG) and I’m pretty sure he won’t be 100%. Tennessee’s whole offensive philosophy is to establish Henry to set up the play action pass. If Henry is a bit hobbled that strategy goes out the window.
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Meanwhile Cincinnati will be able to expose the Titans secondary which finished 25th overall this year. The Tians are especially vulnerable against slot receivers so Tyler Boys should be in for a good day. Tennessee is not as good as the Raider against the run so Joe Mixon should have an impact as well

The spread is too high for me. I’ll take the Bengals to cover. ​

San Francisco +5.5 @ Green Bay – The Niners chances got a huge boost when Nick Bosa cleared the concussion protocol. Bosa will be able to pressure Rodgers since the Green Bay OL sucks.

Fred Warner is also expected to play against the Pack. With Warner on the field, AJ Dillon won’t be able to take over if Green Bay gets up late.

Green Bay struggles against the run and TEs across the middle so Kittle and Samuel are in for big days too.
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This line is perhaps the farthest off of the day. I’m going with a Mega Bet on the Niners and the points. I’ll even throw in a quatloo on the Niners to win outright. The NIners just seem to have the Packs number 

Tampa Bay -2.5 vs LA Rams – Even though I placed a wager on the Rams to win the NFC at the beginning of the season, the road stops here. Lost in the pummeling of the Cardinals on Monday is that Stafford threw only 17 times.

As Lions fans know, Stafford gets hurt every year. This year it’s his back. The Rams covered up his injury by running roughshod over the Cardinals. They won’t be able to run on the Bucs which allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards this year.

Tampa Bay is not without its problems too. They are down two of the best WRs leaving Jalen Ramsey able to focus and limit Mike Evans. Fournette is also out so the Bucs will struggle to run the ball.
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All in I would rather bet on a healthy Brady over an injured Stafford. In a revenge game for TB at home I’ll put a quatloo on the Bucs and the points. I’ll also put a quatloo on the under 48.0

Buffalo ML @ Kansas City – I’m jumping on the band wagon. The Bills pitched a perfect game last week against New England. It was awesome, 7 drives, 7 TDs against Belichick no less. He had more TDs (5) than incompletions (4) I was telling Pete just the other day that I thought Josh Allen was going to be a bust when he was drafted. I’ll admit I’m wrong but happily so.

He’s facing a Chiefs defense he torched back in week 5, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 59 yards and another score. Mahomes struggled in that game netting on 272 yards on 54 attempts with most of the damage done in garbage time But Mahomes really sucked in the beginning of the season and should do better this weekend. Still the Bills are terrific against the pass so Mahomes will still have issues. The Bills are susceptible against the run meaning Jerick McKinnon could do some damage.
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It’s a revenge game for the Chiefs at home but I’m still on the red hot Bills. Put me in for a quatloo on the money line. Put me down for a Mini Mega on the Bills to win the Super Bowl too at 5-1. 

​Alabama Money Line +120 vs Georgia – No Gatorade bath. That was what Kirby was telling his team as the Dawgs were closing out the game against an outmanned scUM. Keep the Kool-Aid in the keg, there’s more work to be done.

Georgia was never worried about the Blue. They were using the game as a televised scrimmage to prepare for this game. There are lots of fixes needed for UGA if they want to be competitive in the rematch.

Few outside the southeast wanted an all SEC championship but these are the two best teams this year. scUM and Cincinnati were embarrassed. Who else has a chance? Notre dame? They lost to the Bearcats. Ohio State? They needed everything in the tank to beat Utah (I’m still pissing and moaning about that game, if the Utes had won, I would have won the confidence pool).

Two, Stetson Bennett needs to play like he has been there before. When Georgia needed him last time he played like a deer in the headlights. He had his first multi-pick game of the year.

And if Georgia can keep Bama from early quick strikes, RB Zamir White can be more of a factor. In the SEC championship game, he was held to fallow 27 yards.

​But it won’t happen. Saban was making adjustments too. No, he didn’t show his hand in slapping around Cincinnati. If amateur pundits like me can see what needs to be done, sure as feces Saban can see it too. He knows what Kirby is going to do and has the counter punches ready. 

This is not the Alabama dreadnaught of prior years. Tank Bigsby stays inbounds in the Iron bowl and Bama isn’t even in the playoffs. Yet, somehow, some way, they make the plays when they are needed. And they will in this game too.​

​No, it won’t be the same as game 1. It’s a rematch, not a repeat. Bama will be more balanced on offense as Georgia will play safer in the back end of the defense.

These two teams are about to stock NFL rosters next year and are about to put on a show. It will be a classic, just like the Iron Bowl with Bama holding off Georgia late in a low scoring game.

Sometimes the analysis is simple. Who do you trust more? Saban and Bryce Young or Kirby and Stetson Bennett? I’m going with a Mini Mega on Bama and the money line. 
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Just let the Saxy Lady know I'll be rooting for UGA though​

​​North Carolina -9.5 vs South Carolina – This will be a game of strength on strength and weakness on weakness. The North Carolina offense, 17th overall, will battle a solid Gamecock defense, 8th against the pass. Meanwhile the South Carolina offense, 116th overall, 110th in that will be led by the converted graduate assistant will face off with the Tar Heels' 101st ranked scoring defense.

In a bowl season chock full of opt outs, UNC QB Sam Howell bucked the trend and will be playing in the game. He was one of the best QBs in the game. In his three seasons, Howell completed 63.9% of his pass for 10,078 yards with 91 touchdowns vs 23 interceptions. 

Howell showed he could run a little bit too, After only rushing for a total of 181 yards in his first two seasons he reeled off 825 yards on the ground, scoring 11 touchdowns, making him the second-leading rusher on the team.

​The strength for the  Gamecocks is an excellent pass defense, but they will also be without their top pass rusher. DE Kingley Enagbare who led the team with 4.5 sacks, is doing the opt out thing. He will be missed as UNC is terrible in pass protection allowing 45 sacks this year.

South Carolina has a huge problem against teams that can run. The Cock allowed over 200 rushing yards five times in the last nine games. They went 0-5.

Can UNC get the ground game going?. It cranked up 300 yards or more in three of the last four games and 220 or more in six of the last seven. Yeah, I think so.

Don’t underestimate the intensity of this game. UNC hates it when South Carolina refers to themselves as Carolina. With Howell deciding to play in this game, it will give North Carolina that spark needed The Heels will be fired up and roll.

​ I’ll lay the points for a quatloo.

Tennessee -6.0 vs Purdue – Both the Boilermakers and the Vols exceeded expextations this year. Purdue finished the regular season above .500 for the first time since 2007 while picking up some memorable upsets along the way. couple of huge upsets over and No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes and some other team that I can’t seem to recall.

For Tennessee, it was the only power conference team with a rookie head coach to win at least seven games this season.

Josh Heupel's up-tempo offense, imported from Central Florida, quickly clicked, with the Volunteers ranking ninth nationally in scoring at 38.8 points per game while piling up 458.7 yards per contest.
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QB Hendon Hooker makes the offense go. passing for 2,567 yards, 26 touchdowns with just three interceptions. He also ran for 561 yards and five TDs. He led all SEC quarterbacks in passer rating (182.2) and ranks third nationally in passing yards per attempt (9.8). 

And while the Volunteers' passing game is dangerous, the ground game which ranked 19th nationally, churning out 212.0 rushing yards per game, may actually be the strength of the offense. As explosive as Vol's passing game can be, pass protection has been a major liability for an offensive line that surrendered an SEC-worst 42 sacks during the regular season.

Purdue’s bread and butter is its passing attack. Aidan O'Connell led the way for a Purdue offense that averaged 423.4 yards and 27.5 PPG ranking 8th overall. O’Connell had 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions for the season. He was particularly dominant down the stretch with 407 YPG, 14 touchdowns and no interceptions over the Boilermakers' final four games. He should find some success against a Tennessee's defense that had its fair share of struggles, allowing 27.5 points and 404.6 yards per game.

The Boiler, however, attack will be set back as its top two WRs in David Bell and Milton Wright won’t be playing. Bell, a first-team All-American opted out to focus on the draft. Wright, who led Purdue in touchdown catches during the regular season, did not make the trip to Nashville for undisclosed reasons. The Boilermakers will likely be without starting left tackle Greg Long as well.

The Boiler defense was excellent against the pass  allowing just 194.6 YPG game (21st). The Boilermakers also had just as many interceptions (13) to their credit as passing touchdowns allowed (13) during the regular season. But the will be missing two key pieces. DE George Karlaftis, a likely top 10 pick will prepare for the draft. where he's a projected top-10 pick. Purdue will also be missing one of their best CBs in Dedrick Mackey
 
The Vols high-octane style on offense will provide a different challenge than Purdue sees for much of the season in the Big Ten West, and the Boilermakers just won't have enough with their best player on each side of the ball both opting out. Add in a virtual home game in Nashville and I’ll lay the points and take the Vols for a quatloo. 

Michigan State -3.0 vs Pitt – This game will come down to who will miss their star player more. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett opted out for the draft where he will be a day 1 pick. State’s star RB Kenneth Walher III also opted out. He’s likely a 3rd round pick.

Backup Pitt QB Nick Patti will be auditioning for the starting job next year as former USC QB Kedon Slovis will be a Panther is coming to Pitt for 2022. Patti will be taking plays from a new voice too as OC Mark Whipple is headed to Nebraska. You remember Mr Whipple, he stunk up the joint as the UMass HC.
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Patti must be salivating at the chance to show his stuff against the worst pass defense in Div 1A football. He better be sharp, since State can get after the QB and there’s no run game to rely on. ​

State will miss K9 but the tandem of Jordon Simmons and Elijah Collins should keep the Pitt rush defense honest. It’s a damn good rush defense too finishing 6th overall.

This game will be decided by States passing attack against the Pitt pass defense. Pitt may be able to stop the run but they are only slightly better than State against the pass (105th).

And in a season with opt outs, State actually gets a player back. Speedy Nailor is back from injury. The combination of Nailor and Jayden Reed will be more than Pitt can handle. One thing State knows is the weakness in Narduzzi’s pass defense, wheel routes and out patterns then set up a deep shot when Pitt starts to press.
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You know I’m taking State and laying  the points. At least there’s good reasons this time. No quatloos though. ​

Wisconsin -7.0 vs Arizona State – It’s the Johnny E Bowl. He still grumbling about the wildly incompetent refs the end of their game in 2013 ​

It’s Wisconsin. You know what you are going to get. Pound the rock behind gigantic, King Kong sized linemen and play fantastic defense. It’s been that way since Barry to now Chryst. Rinse repeat.

This years version of Badger Ball ran the ball well again finishing with 215 YPG (16th). Fr RB sensation Braelon Allen finished the year 1,109 yards with 12 touchdowns. Allen's workload began to pick up midway through the campaign, as he eclipsed 100 yards in seven of the final eight games.

The defense was fantastic. It was the best in the nation against the run, fifth against the pass and 1st overall. 

Arizona State was up and down this year. They started out 5-1 with QB Jayden Daniels getting some very dark horse Heisman buzz. But back to back losses to Utah and Washington State derailed those whispers and the season started to go off the rails. r, Arizona State rebounded, earning victories in three of their last four games, scoring better than 30 points in each of those victories, including an impressive win over USC, to finish 8-4.
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The only way that ASU will win this game is to stop the run and get QB Graham Mertz to pass. He’s considered a game manager but if the game is put in his hands to win he’s awful . Not sure if ASU can do that. Their run defense is respectable (32nd) and finished 18th in overall defense. But the closest team to Wisconsin they faced was Utah who clobbered ASU 35-21. I’m expecting a similar score here. ​
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Maryland 3.5 vs Va Tech – It’s a day full of good games. Just not this one. .
 
Maryland started out 4-0 but cratered as the schedule toughened, finally beating Rutgers over Thanksgiving to become bowl eligible. Virginia Tech finished 6-6, which led to the departure of Justin Fuente as head coach.
 
Not only is Va Tech changing coaching staffs but 7 players opted out or are transferring including five starters.  

On offense, leading pass-catcher Tayvion Robinson is transferring to Kentucky, leading receiver by yardage Tre Turner is skipping the game to prepare for the NFL Draft, and starting QB Braxton Burmeister entered his name into the transfer portal. Oh, and backup QB Knox Kadum entered the transfer portal too, which means 3rd stringer Connor Blumrick will be starting

Clemson -2.5 vs Iowa State – And now the good teams start playing.

If I were to tell Clemson and Iowa State before the season that they’d be playing each other in a bowl game in Florida, you would have assumed it would’ve been the Orange Bowl in a CFP semifinal. But those dreams died early for both teams.  Clemson and Iowa State came into the season ranked in the top 10, but by the end of September, they each had two losses and were out of the playoff chase.

Instead of the CFP, they will battle it out in Orlando in the illustrious Cheez-it Bowl.

The ISU passing game, behind QB Brock Purdy was superb, finishing first in the Big 12. The Cyclone attack was complimented by star RB Breece Hall’s 1,464 yards and 20 TDs. Too bad he went down the NFL opt out path. 

​Clemson’s offense was a huge disappointment and the main reason they missed the CFP this year. For the season, Clemson is 103rd in the nation in passing offense and 57th in rushing offense and 80th in the FBS in scoring offense. Pitiful

Oregon +5.0 vs Oklahoma -  While Iowa State and Clemson was a potential CFP matchup in early September, this game was a potential CFP matchup as late as mid-November. A few key losses later kept that from happening, this game should still to be one of the better bowl matchups between two top ten caliber teams. If you can recognize what's left on either team

​In one of the strangest turns ever in the annual Coaching Carousel, both teams lost their head coaches to other Power five teams. Oregon’s Mario Critobal left for Miami (FL) while Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley bolted for Southern Cal. Oklahoma bought back the man, the legend, Bob Stoops to coach in the game while Oregon will be led by WR coach Bryan McClendon

The Ducks are not only losing their head coach, but their OC is leaving for a different gig too. Joe Moorhead, will stay behind to call plays one last time before taking over as Akron's HC.
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The Duck offense is extremely young and playing in their first bowl environment for the most part, including three freshman receivers, a freshman tight end, and a freshman running back all seeing action on the field as either starters or regular rotation members. Don’t be surprised to see backup five-star QB Ty Thompson to join the fun too. 

Oklahoma's defense is much more of a question mark. DC Alex Grinch will follow Riley to USC and their leading tackler (LB Brian Asamoah), and top three sack masters (Isaiah Thomas/Nik Bonitto/Perrion Winfrey) are sitting this one out.

Oklahoma led the Big 12 in total offense but benched QB Spencer Rattler as he regressed as the season went on. His replacement, Replacement Fr. QB Caleb Williams was brilliant at times but also showed his inexperience too. Williams passed for under 200 yards in two of his final three regular season games while throwing almost as many interceptions (three) as touchdowns (four) during that span. Expect Stoops to keep the game plan simple with an emphasis on the run. He saw the tape of Utah blasting away at Oregon in back to back wins.

Defensively, Oregon will be missing the possible #1 pick in the draft in Kayvon Thibodeaux after he turned his attention to the draft about as soon as he walked off the field in Las Vegas during the Pac-12 Championship Game

I’ll take Oregon and the points in a game with so many missing pieces. No quatloos though. 

Mississippi State -9.5 vs Texas Tech – All the talk before the game will be about Mike Leach going against his old team. Then the game will kick off and you will get to see an exciting game filled with two high powered passing attacks.
 
Texas Tech wants to keep defenses on their heels, while Mississippi State want to keep the clock ticking. The Bulldogs are one dimensional ranking third in passing but dead last in rushing. For Texas Tech It’s not as efficient as the Mississippi State passing game, it loves to take deep shots, and there’s enough of a running game to at least not as one-dimensional as Mississippi State.

It’s the defenses that will make the difference. Unlike past teams, Mike Leach has a defense this year, allowing just 25.2 points and 331.3 yards (21st-best nationally) per game. Conversely. Texas Tech has the worst pass defense in the porous Big 12.

And the Pirate will sure to be motivated in this one. He has a $2.5 million lawsuit over his firing as the Red Raiders coach back in 2009 that is still pending in the courts. Or as he said “You know they still owe me for 2009, the last time they won nine games." You can always count on Mike for some great quotes.

I’ll take the other MSU and drop the points for a quatloo.

NC State -2.0 vs UCLA – Finally, a game with no opt outs, sick outs or coaching changes. Just some good old fashioned straight up handicapping.

UCLA has the best downfield passing game in the Pac-12. The running game averages 215 yards per game with a good blend of power and speed. ​RB Zach Charbonnet had a fantastic campaign rushing for 1,137 yards and 13 touchdowns on 202 carries Put it together and they were finished 30th in YPG.. They finished on a high note scoring. at least 42 points in all three of their wins to close the season.

The Wolfpack have a terrific passing attack, the defense was third in the ACC overall and second in points allowed – giving up fewer than 20 per game – and they have a style that should be able to control the tempo throughout.

.The game will showcase two of the most overlooked quarterbacks to play this year.  NC State’s Devin Leary might not have been celebrated in the ACC like Kenny Pickett or Sam Howell or Sam Hartman, but he threw for 3,433 yards, 35 touchdown passes and just five interceptions this season. He ended on a hot streak throwing for four or more TDs in four of his last five games. 

UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson was a true dual threat quarterback.. He closed out the regular season with 2,409 passing yards with 21 TDs against just six interceptions while tacking on an additional 611 yards and nine rushing touchdowns.

The Bruin defense played bend but don’t break. They ranked 111th in yards allowed but gave up only 15 TDs on the year while grabbing 12 picks.

​The Wolfpack’s defense was stronger giving up less than 20 PPG 16th overall.
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NC State has been dead to me but with some leftover Christmas spirit I’ll give them one more chance.

​I’ll lay a quatloo on the Pack to cover the short spread. ​

Minnesota -5.0 vs West Virginia – The Gopher game plan is going to be very simple. Keep punching away on the ground. The more of a grind this gets, the better it is for the Gophers. They want to rely on their massive offensive line to take over in the fourth quarter for long, tough drives.

The running game will need to take over because to call QB Tanner Morgan average is being generous. Despite a front five that allowed only 20 sacks, the Sr QB recorded less than 200 passing yards in six consecutive games and has a total of 1,935 passing yards with a sad 10:8 TD to INT ratio.

Mountaineers’ QB Jarret Doege was able to put up much better numbers. He posted 2,908 passing yards to go with a 19:11 TD to INT ratio on the year.

​But the offense was centered on RB Leddie Brown. The Sr RB eclipsed the 100-yard mark four times in conference play accumulated 1,065 rushing yards accounting for 70% of the WVU rushing offense. In yet another accelerating trend, Brown opted out.

Nevada +7.0  vs Western Michigan - This as shaping up to be a great game until Nevada’s star QB Carson Strong opted to sit this out, they lost their HC Jay Norvell to Colorado State, their OC followed him and then their DC decided to go to Washington State.

Without Strong, the passing game will be a mystery but the Mountain West’s best pass rush will be disruptive, and the No. 1 team in the nation in turnover margin will need to force several mistakes in what will amount to a road game.

Western has been a big mystery all year long. The passing game was the MAC’s most efficient, it was great at controlling the clock and the tempo, and the defense was the best in the league allowing just 337 yards per game. It beat ACC Champ Pitt and MAC champ Northern Illinois yet finished 4-4 in the MAC.
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I have no idea what to expect from either team. I’ll take Nevada and the points but no quatloos. 

Houston +2.5 vs Auburn – Houston made huge strides under 2nd year HC Dana Holgersen. After losing to Texas Tech to start the season, the Cougars reeled off 11 straight wins before losing to Cinicnnati in the AAC championship game. Houston was dynamic on both sides of the ball, averaging 37 PPG (15ht overall) and allowing 21 PPG (25th)
 
Auburn (6-6) has had a roller-coaster in HC Bryan Harsin’s first year. They opened the season with a 6-2 record, with its two losses caming against then-No. 10 Penn State and then-No. 2 Georgia. The Tigers were in a position to make a run at the SEC West crown after beating a pair of top 20 teams in Arkansas and Ole Miss. But the Tigers stumbled at the finish with losses to  Texas A&M and Mississippi State in consecutive weeks.

Then they lost starting quarterback Bo Nix to a season-ending injury and closed the regular season with losses to South Carolina and Alabama. However, they were able to push the Crimson Tide in a great Iron Bowl giving them some momentum heading into bowl season.
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I’m going to take the more motivated Houston to win this game outright over an Auburn team struggling on offense under backup QB TJ Finley. 

sAir Force +1.5 vs Louisville – It’s a service academy, you know what to expect – the triple option and plenty of running. The Falcons did it better than anyone in the country, averaging 342 yards per game on the ground, 61 yards more than the next closest team.

t will face a Louisville defense that struggled against the run. The Cardinals allowed 4.5 rushing yards per attempt, 92nd overall.

Meanwhile, with the offense on the field so much, the Air Force defense gave up the fewest yards and second-fewest points per game in the Mountain West this season

The Cardinal offense relies on QB Malik Cunningham, considered one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country this season. For the season, he passed for 2,734 yards with 18 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He also rushed for 968 yards with 19 rushing touchdowns for the year.

I’ll take the Falcon punishing ground game to keep Cunningham off the field and pound away at the suspect Louisville defense. Make it a quatloo on the money line. 

​​Memphis -10.0 @ Hawaii - In years past, a Christmas Eve matchup between the Memphis Tigers and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors would have been must-see TV with plenty of points expected. That is far from the case this season.

Hawaii left its backfield on the mainland. RB Dae Dae Hunter led the team with 651 rushing yards and three scores, decided to be a Liberty Flame. Hawaii doesn’t have its backfield. QB Chevan Cordeiro was the main man for the offense opted to be a San Jose State Spartan. Backup QB Fr Brayden Schager got some playing time earlier in the year when Cordeiro was out with a shoulder injury, but the results were not great, throwing just two touchdowns with six interceptions.

Memphis’ big play passing attack was able to crank up close to 300 yards per game, and it’s going to press from the start against a Hawaii defense that allowed almost 290 per outing. Hawaii isn’t scaring anyone with their pass rush, so there should be plenty of time for QB Seth Henigan to stand in the pocket and let a few rip downfield. He will be facing one of the worst pass defenses in America. How bad? There are only three teams in the country with a worse pass defense than Hawaii. 

It will take a Christmas miracle for Hawaii to win this game. Spartan fans are very familiar with Rainbow miracles in Oahu. Still, I’ll take Memphis to win but no quatloos. The spread is a bit high for me.
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Georgia State -5.5 vs Ball State – This game features tow similar teams going in opposite directions.

Ball State, has a good offensive line, a defense that takes the ball away, and it doesn’t beat itself with a whole lot of big mistakes. But the Cardinals struggled late in the season with three losses in the last five games. 

Georgia State, like Ball State has a good offensive line, is great at forcing turnovers, and it doesn’t beat itself with a whole lot of big mistakes. The Panthers however ripped through the second half of the year with six wins in the last seven games.

It’s not entirely equal. Georgia State is much better at running the ball – it’s eighth in the nation averaging 225 yards per game – and Ball State’s defense isn’t a rock against the run, ending up  92nd overall in rush yards allowed per game.
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I’ll go again with the trend. Georgia State has been a reliable team to back, covering the spread in six out of their last seven games. Ball State has only covered four games all year.
Put me down for a quatloo on the Panthers. ​