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2026 NFL Draft Recap

4/24/2026

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The Hole Night 50th Reunion bash was a huge success. Great old friends telling great old stories while enjoying adult beverages and fine cigars.  And while the reunion was going on I had my good eye on the draft too. Here's how I see it played out. 
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Fernando Mendoza
​QB Indiana
It was a no brainer pick. Mendoza was the best QB in the draft by far. He's a complete QB with tremendous accuracy. His ability to bail the offense out of deep holes on 3rd down is uncanny. Don't underestimate his mobility which he will need as the Raiders attempt to upgrade one of the worst OLs in the game. The Raiders finally have their franchise QB
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David Bailey 
​DE Texas Tech
Bailey is a proven edge rusher but hit or miss as a rush defender and paired with Will McDonald they will rattle Drake Maye and Josh Allen. But he is hot or miss as a rush defenders similar to McDonald which could cause some concerns. He'll be measured up against Arvell Reese who was also considered at this spot. Bailey is more proven as an edge rusher but may not have the upside of Reese. 
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Jeremiyah Love
​RB Notre Dame
Love becomes the highest drafted RB since Sauqon back in 2018. Love is elite as both a runner and receiver and can supercharge the Cardinal offense. But there is no one around him. Arizona will likely waste his best years as the try to find a QB and build an offense. 
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Carnell Tate 
​WR Ohio State
The first surprise of the draft. Expectations would be that Tennessee would g defense with this pick. With teammates like Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Jeremiah Smith, Tate went under the radar, but he is a talented receiver in his own right. Tate has good size, runs well enough, and has flashed big-play ability while never being the No. 1 featured receiver. He's a safe pick to be a solid contributor. He will be compared to Jordan Tyson who was available. 
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Arvell Reese 
​DE/OLB Ohio State
The Giants had to be surprised that Reese was available at 5 so they grabbed him rather than a position of need such as WR. He is the most complete defender in the draft. Reese is a special player with great instincts in combination with being big, athletic, and fast. Reese is a sideline-to-sideline run defender who is tough at the point of attack. He is also capable of dropping into coverage, moves well in zone, and is a dangerous pass rusher. The Giants will likely use him as an off-ball linebacker as he develops and realizes his immense potential as an NFL edge rusher.
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Mansoor Delane 
​CB LSU
The first mistake of the draft. The Chiefs traded up three spots to get the what might be the 2nd best CB in the draft. He could have been available later in the night. Delane is an instinctive defender with a quality skill set for the next level. He has good size to him with upside to continue to get better as he gains experience. Delane's size, run-support skills and ball disruption are NFL ready. But he was not worth trading up forr. 
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Sonny Styles
​LB Ohio State
The Redskins are getting the best player on the board who fills a huge need for them. They should be able to cover the middle of the field for once, very useful against the Eagles’ offense. Styles is an incredibly versatile, high-IQ prospect who could immediately be the field general His ability to cover ground in coverage at his size is nothing short of special. 
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Jordyn Tyson
WR Arizona State
the best WR in the draft falls to the Saints at 8. Tyson is one of the most explosive prospects, regardless of position. He can stretch a defense with his combination of size and vertical burst, plus he has a knack for picking up yards after the catch. An excellent addition to a hobbled Saints WR corps. But he has a bit of the injury bug too missing time every year during his college career. 
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Spencer Fano
OT Utah
The Browns making a good draft move? When is the last time you could say that. Cleveland fooled KC into thinking they were going for Delane and got their guy and draft capital too. Fano pairs high-end athleticism with technical prowess and strong hands. He's an elite zone blocker who has the size to play anywhere along the offensive line if needed. His arm length may scare some off, but it was never a massive issue for him on tape.
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Francis Mauigoa
OT Miami (FL)
Were the Giants drinking during the draft. First they take a defensive project at a non-need position. Then they take OT that they also don't need who might not be able to play due to a back injury. He'll kick inside to right guard for now, where he'll be a butt-kicker in the run game. His ability to move people off the line of scrimmage is special for a player who hasn't even turned 21 yet. ​
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Caleb Downs
​S Ohio State
The Cowboys upgrade their much maligned secondary. Downs is a true do-it-all safety with no true holes in his game.  Downs can play safety and nickel corner for the Cowboys and give them a dynamic playmaker in the middle of the field. In 2025, Could they have gotten him at 12 instead of trading two fifth round picks to move up one spot. Maybe, but it was a small price to pay to get Downs. 
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Kaydan Proctor
OT Alabama
The Lions were really hoping Kadyn Proctor would fall to them, but the Dolphins quashed those hopes. Proctor is risky with his weight, but there’s a ton of upside with this pick for the Dolphins, who have needed offensive line help for years. Oh, and they got a couple fifth rounders too, Excellent drafting by Miami. 
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Ty Simpson
​QB Alabama
You got to be kidding me! What a joke. Arizona was debating whether to take Simpspn at 30 so why would he be good enough to take at 13. The Rams are on the verge to win the Super Bowl right now. They needed the best player available to put them over the top. Instead, they selected a one-year starter who melted down in every big game. There’s a chance Simpson wouldn’t have been the starter at Alabama had he returned to school. Worst draft pick I can ever remember. 
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Vega Ioane
​G Penn State
Ba;timore, unlike the Rams understand how to use the draft to get to a Super Bowl. The Ravens, as is their history, usual, were able to get a great value. Ioane is a strong blocker at the point of attack with the ability to generate movement in the ground game. He is also a reliable pass protector. Ioane is explosive, can mirror speed rushers, and plays with physicality with a nasty streak. Ioane looks like a guard for the NFL and probably does not have the length to kick outside to tackle.​
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Rueben Bain
DE Miami (FL)
​
Great value pick. Bain could have easily gone in the 7-10 range, and no one would have blinked an eye. Bain is a rugged, powerful pass rusher who has been was dinged for short arms, but he’s a great player and should be able to be productive in the pros. He can set a hard edge in the run game and collapse pockets with ease. He fills what was easily the biggest need on the Bucs.
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Kenyon Sadiq 
​TE Oregon
Multi-tight end formations is all the rage lately, so this pick makes sense despite the Jets having a talented tight end in Mason Taylor. That's his ideal role - a movable TE2 who can block in space and run past linebackers. Sadiq is one of the most physically-gifted prospects for the position in a long time running a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the combine.  Athletes like him don't come around every year.
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Blake Miller
OT Clemson
The Lions desperately needed a tackle with Taylor Decker gone, and there was some discussion that they’d move up for Kadyn Proctor. Instead, they get Blake Miller, who fills an obvious need. Miller was a solid starting tackle for Clemson with 54 consecutive starts. He is a good athlete with quickness and agility on the edge. Miller could stand to get stronger and play with more physicality, so he is a bit of a project. But he has the ability to develop into a solid pro starter. Time will tell if they should have gone with Monroe Freeling over Miller, This likely confirms Penei Sewell to the left side as Miller was a four-year starter at right tackle. 
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Caleb Banks
DT Florida
A huge reach for Banks who was projected as a late second rounder. But he fills a position of need for the Vikings. At 6-foot-6, 327 pounds with an over 7-foot wingspan, when he fires off low into contact, he's nearly impossible to block. The worry is that we never saw it consistently before his 2025 season was cut short with a foot injury that required surgery. He then had another foot surgery after an injury suffered during the combine week. The Vikingsd would have been better off taking a better secondary player here. 
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Monroe Freeling
​OT Georgia
 Freeling has got prototypical left tackle size and athleticism but the knock on him was he really only started looking like a first-round tackle for the final few games of 2025. The Panthers don't need him to start right away after the Rasheed Walker signing so he will have time to develop. 
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Makai Lemon
​WR USC
This could either be a great value pick or an utter bust. Lemon is  dynamic weapon good enough to go in the top half of the draft Despite not being big, (5-11, 190) Lemon did nice job winning contested catches. For the NFL, he would fit best as a slot receiver. But, Lemon had some seriously terrible and weird interviews at the combine. This pick has great upside, but Lemon may not be around very long if he continues this behavior.
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Max Iheanachor
OT Arizona State


Iheanachor is a project having only started playing football 5 years ago. But he has very high upside. For the Steelers, they won't necessarily need him to start Year 1 with Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu already set at tackle. But they could have had Iheanachor much later in the draft. 
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Akheen Mesidor
​DE Miami (FL)
It fills a need, but Akheem Mesidor is an old prospect (25), so there’s not much upside. Mesidor was also able to ride Rueben Bain’s coattails, so there’s no way of knowing how he would have performed if opposing teams were able to focus on him.
Mesidor was truly dominant vs. both run and pass. The problem is he doesn't quite have top-10 tools. The Chargers needed help on the defensive line in a huge way, and he should be a plug-and-play piece on this defense as it tries to contend.
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Malachi Lawrence
​DE Central Florida
The Cowboys traded down three spots and were able to still get their player His explosiveness is all over his tape. He's undoubtedly a project, though, who flashed more on reps than he did for long stretches of time. He’s a liability against the run, but Dallas needed a pass-rushing replacement for Micah Parsons.
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KC Concepcion
​WR Texas A&M
K.C. Concepcion is a terrific prospect with some great play-making ability. He was the best separator in the entire draft class. He can play on both the outside or slot for the Browns and has even taken 68 handoffs in his career. The only issue is a 9.3% career drop rate. IThe Browns need wide receiver help desperately and could still potentially add another in this draft class. But Concepcion is a great place to start. It must be noted that he comes with some character concerns.
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Dillon Theineman
S Oregon
Thieneman will be a nice upgrade for the Bears at safety. Thieneman had eight picks and 11 pass-breakups in his college career to go along with 4.35 speed. He's a crazy athlete who has a nose for the football and can cover as well. But the Bears may have wanted to consider other players for their dreadful pass rush
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Keylan Rutledge
​G Georgia Tech
The Texans moved up for Keylan Rutledge? Why? They easily could have gotten him two picks later because he’s a second-round prospect. He's a hard-nosed guard who you'll never have to worry about playing through the whistle. He's a people mover at the point of attack but pass protection could be an issue, which is not ideal with C.J. Stroud regressing each year. 
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Chris Johnson
​CB San Diego State
Johnson was a dynamo in coverage in the Mountain West but his athleticism questionalble. There was no need to trade up for Johnson with several talented corners available. Also Miami failed to address the weakest receiver room in the NFL in the first round, which is something they needed to do to make sure Malik Willis succeeds.
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Caleb Lomu
​OT Utah

To get a tackle with Lomu's tape in pass protection at 28 overall is nothing short of a steal. He falls here because he needs to get stronger, more consistent, and play with more edge. Drake Maye was sacked at least five times in every single playoff game, so New England had to obtain someone like Lomu.
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PeterWoods
​DT Clemson
With Chris Jones turning 32 this offseason, the Chiefs nab his successor in Peter Woods. Woods has an incredible blend of explosiveness and play strength. He falls to this point in the draft because of lackluster tape this past fall compared to 2024, but now he gets to learn from the best in the business on how to rush the passer. We’ll have to see if Woods finally lives up to his potential, but there’s a ton of upside with this pick.
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Omar Cooper
​WR Indiana
he Jets are giving Geno Smith quite the arsenal, selecting Omar Cooper after getting Kenyon Sadiq. They were starved for offensive firepower, and they may now have plenty of it. New York's offense doesn't have that reliable possession type receiver on the roster. Adding him gives the WR that weapon. Cooper should be a big upgrade across from Garrett Wilson, and he provides with plenty of value because he easily could have gotten him in the 16-21 range.
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Keldric Faulk
​DE Auburn
The Titans complete the overhaul of their non-existent edge room from a season ago with one of the draft's best run defenders. Keldric Faulk has superb talent and could have easily been chosen in the teens or maybe even No. 12. The Titans don’t have an edge rush, so the Titans are filling a huge need with a prospect with insane upside. Faulk has the length to be a hard edge-setter across from Jermaine Johnson in the Titans' defense. He also has the body type to kick inside and rush the passer. He'll need some development as a true rusher, but he offers intriguing tools in that regard. 
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Jadarian Price
​RB Notre Dame
The Seahawks have only four picks in the draft so using the most valuable pick on a position of nonpremium position is a bit of a head scratcher. Price is a reach with plenty of unkknowns about him. That said, Price is an explosive running back who fills a huge need in the wake of Kenneth Walker’s departure and Zach Charbonnet’s injury.
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2026 NFL Draft - It's the 50th anniversary of Hole Night!

4/23/2026

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PictureMendoza is the heavy favorite to be the #1 overall pick
It’s the 50th anniversary of Hole Night! An epic moment in our dorm floors history that is still celebrated every Thursday. And while I will be hoisting some nice Irish and enjoying a fine cigar with my old friends, I’ll also be tracking the 2026 draft. The NFL Draft travels to the home of the Terrible Towel with the Raiders on the clock. Fernando Mendoza is the odds on favorite to be pick number 1. If he is, he will be only the fourth QB to win the Heisman, a national championship and be selected @1 overall since 1967. (Joe Burrow, Jameis Winston and Cam Newton)

The phone lines are likely be burning as most teams are looking to trade back. And the conversations will be faster and more furious this year as the time to make selections has dropped from 10 minutes to 8 minutes this year.

After several years of drafts going QB heavy in the first day, this year might have just one in Mendoza. The over under for QBs in Round 1 is 1.5 with QB Ty Simpson form Bama going either late in the first or early in the second. If he goes in the first round it will likely be the Cardinals at 31. But Arizona may wait until 2027 for a better QB draft class.

The day 1 draft will lean heavy on CBs (4.5 O/U) OL (7.5) and WR (5.5) expected to be taken.

PictureI'll take Love at #3 to Arizona
After doing my home work, I did the following investments:

Unlike last year where the first 4 picks were pretty much a lock, this year the fun starts at pick #2. After doing my research, I’ll take:

#2 David Bailey DE Texas Tech at -135
#3 Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame +180
#4 Sonny Styles LB Ohio State +155
#7 Carnell Tate WR Ohio State +235
#13 Makai Lemon WR USC +225
#16 Akheem Mesidor DE Miami (FL) +380
#24 Denzel Boston WR Washington +500

I’m seeing a lot of conflicting advice on the Lions at 17 including a potential to trade up. I’m going to pass on the Lions trading up to grab Kaydan Proctor OT out of Bama and hedge by making 2 wagers:
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#17 Monroe Freeling OT Georgia +300 and
#17 Keldric Faulk DE Auburn +2000

PictureI also like Sonny Styles to Tennessee at #4
I’ll also make these prop bets:

Under 5.5 draft pick - Sonny Styles LB Ohio State -110
Under 7.5 draft pick – Carnell Tate WR Ohio State +105
Under 8.5 draft pick – Jordyn Tyson WR Arizona State -225
Under 10.5 draft pick - Mansoor Delane  CB LSU -135
Over 10.5 draft pick – Spencer Fano OT Utah +100
Under 15.5 draft pick – Kenyon Sadiq TE Oregon -120
Over 23.5 draft pick – Omar Cooper WR Indiana +135
Over 24.5 draft pick - KC Concepcion WR Texas A&M +100
Under 25.5 draft pick - Akheem Mesidor DE Miami (FL) -330
Under 26.5 draft pick - Denzel Boston WR Washington -105

And finally:
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Will Arizona draft both Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame and Ty Simpson QB Alabama – Yes +350
 
I'm taking some real flyers here. If only a few pay off it will be a profitable night. Then again, disaster could strike with a few trades and teams falling in love with certain players. It's what makes the draft so much fun!

And all these investments are made on who I think teams will take not necessarily who they should take. That will part of the next Big Book of Guesses update.
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Yahooooo! It’s Hole Night!

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2026 March Madness - Izzo's got this

3/16/2026

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PictureRelax - Izzo's got this
​Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But in college football only12 teams have a shot at the title while in March Madness 68 teams have a a theoretic shot at winning it all. The rest of the games are a one act play. Win or lose and you go home. Not March Madness. Win and you keep on going. 
 
And the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)

And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools 

​1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else. Hasn't worked since 2000 but I'll keep on picking Sparty. 

Picture21 of 23 Champs were Top 20 in Ken Pom including Florida last year
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to San Antonio.
 
3. When picking your eventual National Champion, keep an eye on the KenPom rankings, KenPom rankings assess teams based on their offensive and defensive efficiency.  Since the model was posted in 2002, 21 of the 23 national champions were ranked in the Top 20 for adjusted offensive and defensive metrics.

​This year’s teams are Duke (4 Offense 2 Defense) Arizona (5 Off 3 Def) Michigan ( 8 Off 1 Def), Florida (9 Off 6 def), Tennessee (18 Off 3 Def) Houston (14 Off 5 Def). Michigan State just misses (13 def but 24 Off). Also, just missing Iowa State (21 Off 4 Def), Virginia (27 Off 16 Def) Gonzaga (29 Off 9 Def) and UConn (30 Off 11 def)

4. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round.  In 2023, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round. Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 158-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.

PictureMcNeese over Clemson was a 12 over 5 seed last year
5. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. Last year, the #2 seeds went 4-0 in the first round and 3-1 in the second round. In 2024 they went 4-0 in both the first and second rounds. In 2023 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round (State upsetting 2 seed Marquette!). Same thing happened in 2022 and 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. Perhaps the trend will return. Consider taking a 2 seed to lose in the first  round and another in the second round.  
 
6. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over 3 seeds. It’s getting a bit over rated. Last year all the 3 seeds advanced easily. In 2024, #14 seed Oakland took down Kentucky. But, in the two previous years, the 3 seeds went 4-0 in the first round. Overall, #3 seeds are 137-23 (85.6%) in the first round.
 
7. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. In 2024, year the 12’s went 2-2 against the 5s. The same thing happened last year. In fact, 12 seeds are 57-103 against the 5 seeds (35.6%). A winning bracket is going to get a 12-5 upset correct. Go for it.
 
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (St Johns, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Texas Tech this year)
 
8. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. In 2024 it was 11 seed NC State making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 112 Final Four teams, 85 were top-four seeds. That still leaves room for one or two non top four seeds.

PictureConference championships ,atter - right Purdue
9. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only twice since they began seeding in 1979 (2008 and 2025). Amazingly both Final Fours were in San Antonio!  Putting in all 1 seeds your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 12.1.  If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 4 times over the last 23 years (2000, 2006, 2011 and 2023).
 
10. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.

11. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except two since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32.
 
12. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 27 years, 13 national champions won their conference tournament including Florida last year. This years champs include Purdue, Duke, Arkansas, and Arizona.

13. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year be cautious about Virginia and Illinois.  

PictureAkron is a three-peat MAC champion
14. Along those same lines, since Arizona won it all in 1997, no team west of Texas has been crowned champs.

15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:

a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. Don’t worry about the loss in the Big Ten tourney. It actually could help State by not having to play on Sunday. They also played #1 Seed Duke tough earlier in the season.
 
​b. In the South  – I’ll take Houston. They have pretty much the same roster as last year’s runner up and the regional is played in Houston.

c. In the West – I’ll take Purdue. The preseason #1 team is hitting their stride at just the right time. Braden Smith needs just 1 more assist to beat Bobby Hurley’s all time record.
 
d. In the Midwest – I’ll take Michigan. Haters gonna hate but I got to admit that is one fine team Dusty May has assembled. If he weren’t coaching at Michigan I would really like the guy.
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15.  That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 9. A little on the low side but acceptable.  And you saw that correctly, I have the Big 10 dominating the Final Four with 3 teams.   
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16. For my First Four upset I’m going to take two! First it’s a one loss Miami (OH) to take down  to take down Tennessee and secons, I’ll take the high scoring NC State to upset BYU.
 
17. For the 14 over 3 upset – I’m going to pass this year.
 
18. For the 13 over 4 upset  - There are a couple of tempting ones in Hawaii over Arkansas and Troy over Nebraska but I’ll pass here too.
 
19. Not going to pass on a 12 over 5 though. Miami (OH) got all the publicity in the MAC but Akron won the tourney and is a good team. They take down Texas Tech in the Midwest. 

20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? UConn is the most susceptible but I’ll take the Huskies to make the Sweet 16 along with all the other 1 and 2 seeds.
 
Putting it all together – here is my 2025 March Madness Brackett

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Super Bowl LX - Seattle gets another shot at New England

2/8/2026

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PictureHow much was due to New England's defense and how much was due to weather?
Happy Super Bowl Day. It’s the final football game of what was a fantastic 2025 season.

It’s also 11 years since the biggest Super Bowl blunder of all time -  Russell Wilsons’ goal line pick by Malcolm Butler’s. Not sure what the over /under of the replay of that play will be today but I will take the over.

And while it is a rematch form long ago, I think it's nice to have some fresh faces on this stage after years of featuring teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.

Seattle -4.5 vs New England – It’s tied for the largest spread since 2009 but I’ll lay the points. Mainly because I don’t trust New England. Not only did they play the easiest regular season schedule this century, they followed that up with a laughable path in the postseason with wins over a Chargers team with no offensive line, a severely banged up Texans offense, and then the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham. It doesn't get much easier than that.

The Patriots' defense has led the way, but, again, the competition (and weather) certainly helped.

Seattle defense, however, is  that good. For the season (including the post season) the Seahawks allowed a total of 325 points of which the Rams scored 90. That means that they allowed an average of 12.4 PPG to teams not named the Rams. New England is not the Rams.

The weather helped but the Patriots have averaged just 18 points per game in the playoffs thus far, the lowest mark for a Super Bowl team since the 1979 Rams. The Patriot offense has looked very pedestrian and QB Drake Maye is putting the ball on the carpet way too often.

I’m not a fan of laying the -4.5 but Super Bowl winners have a history of covering — 50-7-2 against the spread (ATS), including 31-1 ATS when the spread is six points or less.

PictureSeattle is allowing less than 13 PPG to teams not named the Rams
Seattle vs New England Under 45.5 – This is more about New England’s inability to score against Seattle more than anything else. That said, both teams rely on the run and will be unable to run. Both teams like to milk the clock as well.

The Seahawks just allowed Matthew Stafford to throw all over them, but they have the league’s No. 2 run defense and were able to generate the second-most pressure in the NFL this season. That’s not good for a young quarterback like Maye who has taken five sacks in every game and has been prone to fumbling.

Maye’s youth and inexperience has tended to show against elite defenses, with Seattle being the best he will face to date, which could lead to not only inefficiency, but a conservative game plan.

Darnold is due for a drive killing turnover as well. Darnold is currently on a 3-game streak without throwing an interception, the first time that has happened all year. Let’s just that he is due.
​

So for on the season I’m 42-42 never being better or worse than +2 or -2 at any point. I’m going to have to have an odd number of bets to determine if I break even so I’m going to add several player prop bets. They add a lot of spice to the game too.  ​

PictureExpect Kupp and Shaheed to get plenty of targets with NE focusing on Smith-Njigba
Seattle WR Rashid Shaheed over 25 yards receiving- Shaheed thrives against man coverage, which the Patriots use at the 6th highest rate. New England also allows an average of 42.7 ypg to WR3. And he'll have plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities, especially with WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba drawing extra attention.

Seattle WR Cooper Kupp over 36 yards receiving – Not only will Shaheed benefit from New England focusing on stopping Smith-Njigba but Kupp will too. He’s a veteran, which will be important in the biggest game of all. He had five catches for 60 yards in the Divisional Round before reeling in four of six targets for 36 yards in the NFC Championship Game. His workload has jumped since over the last eight games after Tory Horton suffered a season-ending injury.
 

PictureHenry is Maye's relief valve

​New England TE Hunter Henry over 40 yards receiving
 - Drake Maye will be getting tons of pressure from a Seattle pass rush that can generate pressure with just a four-man rush. Henry is Maye’s pressure release in short yardage and also his best receiving option versus zone coverage, which Seattle runs at the second-highest rate.

The Seahawks defensive weakness is pass catchers in the middle of the field. They’ve allowed 114 receptions to the TE this season and the Pats aren’t afraid to ride Henry. They don’t have the WRs to consistently win against the Seahawks and Henry will be their go-to in the passing game.
Henry can also pick up yards after the catch, and the Seahawks have allowed the sixth most YAC.

PictureRemember - Kneel downs count as a rushing attempt
New England TE Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions – I’ll marry Maye’s dumping off to Henry with the number of receptions. HC McDaniels has also heavily utilized his tight ends in recent Super Bowls. Over his past five, his primary tight end has averaged 6.8 catches for 80 yards with over 11 targets per game. I expect Henry to be heavily involved and get a sizable target share based on the matchup.
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Seattle QB Sam Darnold over 2.5 rushing attempts - Here are Darnold’s rushing attempts over the past seven games: 3, 0, 6, 3, 3, 4, 3. He failed to reach three just once, and that was in the blowout win over the 49ers. Unless this is another blowout, Darnold should rush three or more times, and remember, a kneel-down counts as a rush

So gather up your friends and have a great party. We are! Have fun!

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2025 NFL Championship Games - It's about the QBs

1/25/2026

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PictureNew England's OL has had trouble keeping Drake Maye upright
Denver +4.5 vs New England – All the talk coming into the game is about how Bo Nix is out and Jarret Stidham will get the start. The line moved from Denver as a 1.5 point favorite to a 4.5 dog. Is a 6 point move justified. It’s not like the Broncos are replacing John Elway. Nix threw 11 interceptions in the regular season and tossed a pick to a Buffalo defensive lineman in the third quarter last Saturday.

And HC Sean Peyton has had success putting in backup QBs. In 2019, Teddy Bridgewater started five games because of an injury to Drew Brees. In those five games, the Saints went 5-0, and Bridgewater’s numbers were - 1,384 yards, 9 TDs vs 2 picks and a 99.1 passer rating. He’ll have Stidham ready.

And we maybe looking at the wrong QB.  New England isn’t exactly rolling out Tom Brady today.

In two playoff games, Drake Maye has fumbled six times and has taken 10 sacks. The Patriots' offensive line has had trouble protecting Maye, who has been sacked on nearly 14% of his drop backs this postseason. That spells trouble for New England against a Denver team that had 68 sacks in the regular season, which tied for the fifth-most in NFL history.

Maye is also making his first career road playoff start, and Denver is just about the toughest place to do that.

The market has overreacted to losing Bo Nix and is overlooking Denver’s defense vs Drake Maye. I’ll take Denver and the points.

PictureSam Darnold is a disaster waiting to happen
LA Rams +2.5 @ Seattle – How close are these two teams? They have played twice and the record is:

Points Scored
Rams: 58; Seahawks: 57
Total Yards
Rams: 830; Seahawks: 829

Since these NFC West rivals played a 38-37 classic back in December, Seattle took that win and hasn’t looked back, winning three straight games in dominating fashion while outscoring opponents 81-19. Their defense has flattened everyone in that run.

But that December win by Seattle is a bit misleading. The Rams dominated that game for three quarters and actually gained 585 yards of offense in the contest with Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford threw throwing for 457 yards.

And while Seattle’s defense has been on a dominating run, QB Sam Darnold is a disaster just waiting to happen.

Darnold threw six interceptions in two games against the Rams, including four in the Seahawks’ loss in Los Angeles. In last year’s wild-card round, when he started for the Vikings, he threw an interception and took nine sacks in a 27-9 loss to the Rams. Darnold,  committed a league-high 20 turnovers in the regular season, also has an oblique injury that could compromise his play.

Stafford, meanwhile,  has had success against Seattle’s defense. In four meetings against the Seahawks over the past three seasons, Stafford has thrown 10 touchdowns to just one interception to go along with only two sacks. And in the two meetings this season, he finished with a grand total of zero interceptions.

In a tight game, I’ll take the better Stafford over Darnold and take the points.

I went 1-3 in the CFP championship game with a new way to lose. I got Cignettied. Needing a TD to cover and get the team total points. Cignetti set up for drives down a goes for the FG. Missed the spread by 1.5 points and the team total by the hook. 

​The record is now 41-41. A TD would make it 43-39. Woulda coudla shoulda. 

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2025 National Championship Game - Forget the Logos

1/19/2026

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PictureForget the Logos
It’s the final act of a great play. Indiana has risen from the losingest college football team of all time to the cusp of a national championship. A run, two years In the making. The first year a shock to college football. The second year – sustained excellence and total domination.  Year one was not a fluke, rather a proof of concept.

How did they do it? Not by “owning the portal”, nor emptying the vault on NIL. Your four and five stars mean nothing to Cignetti. Rather, it’s fanatical attention to detail, working as a team, doing your job and a total belief that your goals are achievable.  

I don’t mean to dismiss Miami (FL). Cristobal has been dismissed far too often. He’s tough like the former OL he was at Miami. Miami has been stubbornly unbreakable in tight games   For two and a half years the Canes have not lost by more than a TD.

Cristobal has built a team using a tried and true method, recruiting at the highest levels and using NIL to nab a few missing pieces like Carson Beck
But he is about to run into juggernaut, a unified team that eliminates mistakes while slowly strangling any hope of you winning.

So for the last picks of the 2025 College Football season I’ll go with:

PictureMendoza settled the debate about the #1 pick in the draft
Indiana -7.5 vs Miami (FL) – Yes the spread is high but I don’t believe the market has truly grasped how good this Indiana team is. Much like the 2019 LSU team, bettors are dismissing what they see, a truly remarkable team.  They are still looking at the logos and not the teams.

Fernando Mendoza settled who was the #1 draft pick last week when Dante Moore melted down and Mendoza dominated. But it wasn’t that long ago that Carson Beck was considered the #1 QB in college ball. You could argue that the two QBs in this game are better than the remaining QBs in the playoffs (OK, I’ll spot you Stafford but Sam Darnold or Jarrett Stidham anyone?)

Beck fell off the pace because he can get sloppy with the ball. He threw four picks in the loss to Louisville and two in the loss to SMU. 

PictureCarter Smith has not allowed a sack all season
Talent-wise, the Miami starting 22 is probably better than Indiana's starting 22. But the Hoosiers are a senior led team that doesn’t make mistakes. They do all of the little things right and avoid all of the self-inflicted wounds (penalties, turnovers, etc.).   Indiana plays as disciplined as a service academy. Only Army (21.9) has fewer penalty yards per game this season than Indiana. That could spell trouble for a Miami team that has struggled with discipline ranking 85th with 57.1 penalty yards per contest.

Indiana has forced 19 takeaways in the last eight games and is +14 in turnover margin. 

Much has been made of Miami’s vaunted DL and its edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. Bain produced just one sack in the past two games against the blindside tackles of Ohio State and Ole Miss. Mesidor, meanwhile, has been a one-man Havoc crew, generating 19 pressures and three sacks in three playoff wins.

But Bain and Mesidor will face an Indiana offensive line that's top-20 in pass blocking. Blindside Hoosier OT Carter Smith hasn't allowed a sack all season, giving up just single pressure over the past five games.

​

PictureBottom line - who is better - Cignetti or Cristobal

Bottom line - Indiana has been brilliant during the College Football Playoff. It completely dismantled Alabama and Oregon by a combined score of 94-25 (which includes a meaningless last-second touchdown by the Ducks)  Meanwhile, Miami had to survive a pair of late scares against both Texas A&M and Ole Miss to advance in games where it was either tied or trailing at the two-minute timeout.

And the trend is your friend. Favorites have won and covered each of the last six National Championship games, dating back to 2019 LSU. Even if you remove 2022 Georgia’s 65-7 pounding  of TCU, the average margin of victory for favorites over this run is 18.4 points; Ohio State’s 34-23 win over Notre Dame last season was the closest result.
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And when it really comes down to it, who do you want to back Cignetti or Cristobal?
 

PictureXavier Lucas is out the first half for targeting
Indiana 1st half -4.5 vs Miami (FL) - The Indiana Hoosiers' formula this year: shock and awe. Thanks to a handful of Oregon turnovers, Indiana jumped out to a 35-7 halftime lead and never surrendered. The game before, against Bama, it was a 17-0 halftime jump. 

Indiana ranks as the top team in the "Middle 8," defined as the last four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter. Cignetti’s team has averaged a scoring differential of +5.3 at the end of the second quarter and +1.2 at the beginning of the third quarter.

And don’t forget, starting Cane CB Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game due to a targeting call in the semifinals. 

Mendoza rightfully gets the headlines with eight touchdown passes and only five incompletions combined in the two playoff games.

PictureIndiana scored a pick 6 to open the game against Oregon
Indiana Team Total over 27.5 points - The Hoosiers have scored 38 and 56 points in their two CFP bowl games and are the No. 2 scoring offense (42.6 ppg) in the nation. That number is even more astonishing when you consider that they rank just 112th in pace.

Mendoza has faced this defense before. In 2024, while at Cal he scored 38 points and 7.6 yards per play.  Now he is playing with a much better team and saving his best stats for the playoffs. In the first two CFP games, he threw more touchdown passes (eight) than incompletions (five).

And don’t forget, the total includes defensive scores as well. Plus, the Hoosiers could be playing with a short field. In five of the last 11 games, Indiana has recorded a pick on the opponents first drive including the Big Ten Championship game and last week against Oregon.

PictureThe Waffle House is always open
Head to head Receiving Yards – Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt over Miami (FL) WR Malachi Toney (+115) – No doubt, Malachi Toney is electric, but Toney, despite his talent, is becoming vulnerable.

The tougher the competition has gotten, the harder it has been for Toney to generate separation. Opposing teams in these playoffs have zeroed in on Toney, essentially taking him out of the game.

Ole Miss let up a 36-yard touchdown to Toney on a screen pass in the semifinals, which may be the only real way Toney gets to make a difference. No one runs more screen plays than Miami (118 total this season). However, Indiana’s defense is one of the better tackling teams in the country and will be prepared for this.

Given all those factors, I don’t foresee Toney making a major impact on this game. I think Indiana will be glued to him, mostly putting two defenders on him at all times, forcing Carson Beck to look toward Keelan Marion or CJ Daniels.

Waffle House. Always Open. That’s the nickname that Elijah Sarratt has earned.

Omar Cooper Jr. and Charlie Becker have had fantastic seasons, but there’s nobody Fernando Mendoza trusts more in big moments than Sarratt.
​

He can beat man coverage regularly, and he also knows how to find the open spots on the field. The senior has gone for 60-plus yards in six of the eleven games he’s been healthy this season. In the five he wasn't, it was due to limited second playing time with Indiana holding big leads.

​I went 1-1 last week to bring the season record to 40-38.  

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2025 NFL Playoffs Round 2- Waiting for the CFP Finals

1/17/2026

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PictureRJ Harvey dances a little too much
While I wait for the College Footbal Championship on Monday, I’ll start making some NFL bets. This weekend I’ll take two:
 
Buffalo ML @ Denver (+100) - Josh Allen was banged up last week but pulled out a great fourth quarter drive to win the game. With a week to recover he should be much healthier.

The Broncos have a great defense on paper but are a bit overrated. One area they will be exposed is against tight ends. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Know should have great games.  

IN a game of quarterback Allen is much better than Denver’s Bo Nix. Nix struggled against the Raiders and the 22nd-ranked Chiefs defense. Now, he takes on the Bills, who are terrific against the pass. They have a strong pass rush and an excellent secondary to keep Nix’s receivers from doing too much damage.

The weakness of the Bills, of course, is the run defense. But if there’s one team remaining in the playoffs that can’t take advantage of that, it’s Denver. Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EP. Backup RJ Harvey is churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Harry is explosive, but dances behind the line of scrimmage too much. He can break a long gain, but takes far too many losses and minimal gains as a result.

This will be Bo Nix’s second career playoff start, and if it goes anything like the first, the Broncos are in trouble. Last year he lost to these same Bills 31-7. Denver may be better than last year but not that much better.

PictureDrake Maye is not a statue like Rodgers
​New England -3.0 vs Houston - The Texans have a major problem that cannot be overstated here. The offense, despite the scoreboard reading 30, is a mess. Of those 30 points, 14 came on defensive scores.

CJ Stroud looked scared. He had five fumbles and a pick. This is a far tougher matchup for Stroud because the Patriots have excellent defensive backs to go along with a pass rush that made life extremely difficult for Justin Herbert last week. And now Stroud will without #1 WR Nico Collins. Add to that, Stroud struggles in outdoor conditions, with a significant drop in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating.

The Texans won with an elite defense. The Steelers couldn’t muster a single point in the second half of the Monday night game. But there are two things New England has that Pittsburgh lacked. The first is a quarterback who can move. Maye can beat any defense with his legs, while Aaron Rodgers is a statue.  

 Second, the Patriots have a better offensive line than the Steelers possess. Maye won’t be able to count on his rushing attack, the Texans are fourth against the run, but he could make good use out of his tight ends. The Texans are just above average against the position, so Maye should be able to connect with Henry and Austin Hooper.

I’ll take the more complete Patriots over Texan’s team that will struggle on offense.

I went 2-1 last week to bring the season record to 39-37

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2025 Bowl Season Part 11 - The Top Two Draft Picks in a Rematch

1/9/2026

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PictureIt's the top 2 picks in this years NFL draft
Indiana -3.0 vs Oregon – it’s the two first picks in this year’ NFL draft playing in the biggest games of their careers. When two high profile match up, it’s always a big deal. When two quarterbacks at the top of their game and are projected to be the first and second overall picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, anticipation increases twofold. Take two elite quarterbacks and square them off for a spot in the National Championship game? Fireworks.

Both of these teams are coming off defensive masterclasses in their quarterfinal wins. Oregon shutout Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl. A few hours later, Indiana dominated Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl. Indiana ripped through Bama like it was some low-level MAC team fighting for an early December bowl slot. Take that SEC. Oregon beat the Red Raiders like it was a light scrimmage. NIL money can get you just so far.


PictureThe Hoosiers DL dominated
The Ducks and Hoosiers played once already this season. Back on October 11, Oregon was a 7-point home favorite against Indiana, but Cignetti’s team ended up winning by 10. It's tough to beat the same team twice in a season. Am I right Georgia?

Round one wasn’t the prettiest offensive performance for Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana offense.  Mendoza threw for only 215 yards with a touchdown and a pick. But Indiana’s defense picked Dante Moore off twice. They also held the Ducks to 2.7 yards per carry, making the Oregon offensive line look slow and weak.

Fernando Mendoza vs Dante Moore may get the headlines but the real matchup is in the trenches. Indiana is among the best in the country, but will be without edge rusher Stephen Daley, who was lost to an injury during the Big Ten title game.

Oregon is also down in RB Jordan Davison (broken clavicle). He led the Ducks with 15 rushing touchdowns, and he's been their leading rusher in both Playoff wins thus far

PictureIndiana just finds a way to win
No one can match Indiana's production on both sides of the ball, as it has the No. 2 scoring defense and No. 3 scoring offense, and no other FBS team ranks in the top five of both. The Hoosiers have allowed two touchdowns, total, over their last four games, and they've given up a rushing touchdown in just one of their last nine games.

​One area where Indiana will hold the edge is in the red zone. The Hoosier defense leads the nation in red zone touchdown rate allowed (26%). Oregon’s offense ranks 47th. 


Indiana isn't the type of team that hurts itself. Just one team in all of college football commits fewer penalty yards per game, while just two teams in the country commit fewer turnovers per game. 

Despite the Hoosiers entering the College Football Playoff Semifinal undefeated and led by a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, some still hesitate to call them the best team in the country. That skepticism comes from the logo on the helmet, not the product on the field. It’s just clear that Cignetti and his staff are fantastic when it comes to getting the players prepared, and nobody on this Hoosiers team is scared of the moment.  It’ll be close, but Mendoza & Co. get the job done.​

Picture
No one can match Indiana's production on both sides of the ball, as it has the No. 2 scoring defense and No. 3 scoring offense, and no other FBS team ranks in the top five of both. The Hoosiers have allowed two touchdowns, total, over their last four games, and they've given up a rushing touchdown in just one of their last nine games.

Indiana isn't the type of team that hurts itself. Just one team in all of college football commits fewer penalty yards per game, while just two teams in the country commit fewer turnovers per game. 

Despite the Hoosiers entering the College Football Playoff Semifinal undefeated and led by a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, some still hesitate to call them the best team in the country.

​That skepticism comes from the logo on the helmet, not the product on the field. It’s just clear that Cignetti and his staff are fantastic when it comes to getting the players prepared, and nobody on this Hoosiers team is scared of the moment.  It’ll be close, but Mendoza & Co. get the job done.

PictureHe struggles with the snap
Oregon Team Total Under 24.5 (+105) - Oregon's offense was not that impressive against Texas Tech. The Ducks moved the ball pretty well, but there were too many self-inflicted mistakes, largely coming from Moore’s inability to catch a snap, the center’s inability to get him the snap, and mesh points being messy, and the ball ending up on the deck.

Dante Moore has been really good at times, and not so good at others. Against Indiana the first time, it was not as good. He was pressured 20 times (a season-high) and took six sacks – 40% of his entire season’s total.

This is an Indiana defense capable of crushing any opposing offense’s bones to dust. The suffocating weight of an inevitable pass rush is enough to force coordinators to overthink, even ones as sharp as Will Stein.

I don’t see a two-touchdown jump in production for the Ducks.

PictureIn a tight game Mendoza will keep passing
Fernando Mendoza Passing Yards over 208.5 - The Heisman winner has fallen short of this prop twice in his last three games and six times in 14 games this season. Then again, those two times in the last three games were both laughable routs, and the closest game in which Mendoza fell short of this prop was the 27-14 season opener against Old Dominion. 

​
Mendoza topped this prop against Iowa, Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State, averaging 222 passing yards in those four games against quality defenses.

​This game should be close enough to allow Mendoza to flex his muscles a bit.

I went 1-1 yet again last night brining the season total to 37-36

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2025 Bowl Season Part 10 - Two Cinderellas Meet

1/7/2026

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PictureChambliss ran circles around the Dawg defense
Miami (FL) -3.0 vs Mississippi - There are four teams left standing and three of them didn’t even play in their conference championship games. The trend of first round byes losing continues as seven of the eight have now lost.

This game was supposed to be a powerhouse showdown between Ohio State and Georgia -  teams that won three of the last four national titles. But Ole Miss upset Georgia behind a brilliant performance from QB Trinidad Chambliss who ran circles around the Georgia defense.  He looked and played like a combination of Fran Tarkenton, Johnny Manziel, and Michael Vick. Georgia didn't lay a glove on Chambliss failing to come up with any sacks and just three tackles for loss.

The thought of Miami reaching the national championship game after its questionable inclusion in the College Football Playoff should make Notre Dame fans and BYU fans livid. Entering the Cotton Bowl as 9.5-point underdogs,  the Canes notched the biggest point-spread upset in the 12-year history of the College Football Playoff.

PictureThe Cane DL Dominated Ohio State
They did it behind a defensive line was more physical and outplayed Ohio State’s offensive line. It got consistent pressure on OSU QB Julian Sayin, sacking him five times and shutting down the run game, limiting the BuckNuts to 45 total rushing yards. So far in the playoffs, Miami’s defense has only allowed 17 points.

The defense has had to do all the work because the offense has struggled. QB Carson Beck has only thrown for 241 yards against the Aggies and Buckeyes. The Canes have only scored three offensive touchdowns in two games and only have four drives with at least 50 yards of offense.

This game will come down to whether Miami’s defense can contain Chambliss. They should, as they harassed another elusive QB in Texas A&M's Marcel Reed in the first round, sacking him seven times. 

Miami will also have to make sure Beck doesn’t have one of his bonehead turnover games. He threw six interceptions in Miami's two losses, throwing just four in the other ten games. Miami's offense might not look outright good in this matchup, but it should look better than it has yet to in the Playoff. This is the worst defense it has faced thus far.

I’ll take the Canes defense to carry the day again and Beck playing just good enough to win.
​
Miami (FL) vs Mississippi 1st half under 24.5 - I’ll also take the first half under. The Hurricanes have been ultra-careful in the first two playoff games, Miami has hit the 1st half under in 13 of their last 14 games 

I went 1-1 on Saturday to being the season total to 36-35.  Texas State let up a TD with 9 seconds left in the 1st half  for the loss - arrrgh

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2025 Bowl Season Part 8 - The Regular bowl Season comes to and End

1/2/2026

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PictureBoth Teams like to run - Texas State just does it better
​The 2025 Bowl Season comes to an end today. All that will be left is the playoffs. 

Here's my final bowl picks:

Texas State -9.5 1st half vs Rice - Rice plays in a bowl due to thier APR Score and not anything that they’ve done on the field. The Owls went 5-7 and are far removed from a quality football team. This is the 12th year in a row that the Owls will end the season with a losing record.
​
Texas State HC GL Kinne was a hot commodity in the Coaching Carousel but decided to stay in San Marcos as the Bobcats will be moving to the Pac 12 next year.

Both teams like to run the ball. Rice was 6th in rushing attempts while Texas State sits just outside the Top 25. Texas State does a far better job at it. The Bobcats average 5.11 Yards per attempt (20th) while Rice averaged 4.11 YPA (88th).

The run did open up the pass, as Texas State was one of only seven teams in the nation with a completion rate over 70%. QB Brad Jackson completed over 71% of his passes with an 18/7 TD/INT ratio. He is also the team’s second-leading rusher with 692 yards and the team in TDs with 16.

Rice will be playing without its starting QB Chase Jenkins who hit the transfer portal. The quarterback is the most important player in any offense, but that gets magnified in an option offense.

Kinne demands a level of buy-in from his roster. Just two players are expected to transfer, neither of whom started a game beyond Week 6.
The line has ballooned to Texas State -17.5 for the game. Rather than risk a back door cover against backups in the second half I’ll take Texas State with a full roster and better team to cover the 1st half spread of 9.5.

PictureIt's your last chance to see Blake Horvath
​Navy -7.5 vs Cincinnati – This will be your last chance to see Navy QB Blake Horvath. The senior signal caller led the Middies to consecutive 10-win seasons and won the Commander-in-Chief Trophy in back-to-back years. What made him so dynamic in this Navy offense is that he could actually throw the ball. On top of rushing for 1,147 yards and 15 touchdowns, Horvath also threw 1,472 yards and 10 more scores.

Cincinnati ended the season in a tailspin. The Bearcats lost four consecutive games to end the year failing to cover in all four. Defense was a real issue. The Bearcats allowed too many yards on first and second downs and then couldn't get off the field enough on third and fourth downs.

Against run-heavy teams, Cincinnati crumbled. Utah rushed for 267 yards, and BYU went for 265. 
​
The season ending tailspin has led to a ton of opt outs. The Bearcats are also losing five  starers on defense including virtually everyone in the secondary. More devastating is the star QB Brendan Sorsby who hit the transfer portal and is about to get a big payday. Sorsby ended the season with 2,800 yards and 27 TDs.

It’s Navy, opt outs and transfers don’t happen. They will be at full strength. I’ll take a the Middies to run the ball down the throat of Cincinnati, that struggled against the run even at full strength, and missing its best player on offense.

I went 1-2 yesterday brining the overall record to 35-34


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