The belly is still in overdrive trying to process all the turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes gravy and everything else I couldn’t stop eating. The Sax Man cooked up a great feast and the rest of the Doofus Clan pitched in with various tasty accoutrements making for a fantastic meal.

Of course there was football, board games and adult beverages during the day. Plenty to be thankful for coming ino the day and even more coming out of the day.

Now it’s time for Rivalry Week! Insert all your cliches here – playing their hearts out, don’t care if I lose every other game, give it their all, throw out the records. They are all true and make for great games.
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With the body sending all its energy down to the belly, little is making it to the brain so take these pricks for what its worth. I’ve been on a roll starting with GO JUMBO weekend (although I went 5-5 last weekend) but these might be the regression to the mean. 

Ohio State -8.0 vs Michigan – No way am I betting this game. Ohio State has not shown the toughness to cover this spread. By the same token, no way in Hades am I picking ley alone betting on scUM. I’ll just keep my quatloos safely in my pocket and root for the BuckNuts. 

Georgia Tech +36.0 @ Georgia - The Sax Man and Saxy Lady are doing a great job hosting the Doofus Family over Rivalry weekend. They have agreed to keep their rotting on this game to a respectable, kind, loving level. No way am I going to stir the pot. But 5 TDs does seem a bit much. 

Auburn +22.0 @ Alabama –  Here's a game I can make my rooting interest known. Way too many points for a rivalry game. And it’s not like Bama is playing like Bama! this year. The secondary is allowing plays, the WRs are playing on Sunday and for some reason, the Tide is not playing disciplined ball, they are in the bottom 10 for getting penalized.
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The Tigers will play their hearts out for HC Cadillac Williams and keep this one close. Put me down for a quatloo. 

Notre Dame +4.5 @ USC – USC has been winning with offense and forcing turnovers. The Trojans lead the nation @+21 in turnover margin. Notre Dame doesn’t turn it over.
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The Domers are going to maul USC’s defensive line. USC has one of the worst rush defenses in the country. USC also has trouble with good tight ends. ND’s Michael Mayer is among the best, if not the best TE in college football.

When USC has the ball, the Domers have a top 10 secondary and will limit the Trojans explosive passing attack. And the defense will limit their passing game.

I’m going to put half a quatloo on ND getting the points and another half on the money line at +165.
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Investors should note: Notre Dame is fantastic against ranked opponents going 25-13 ATS since 2005. They are 3-0 ATS this year. 

BYU -6.5 @ Stanford – Speaking of the Cardinal, they have given up on the year. The tree has lost their last four games by an average of 26PPG including last week’s melt down versus Cal.

BYU had a rough patch during the middle of the season but is coming off two straight wins over including a huge win over rival Boise State.

Having to give less than a TD between two teams going in opposite directions – I’ll lay the points. 

South Carolina +14.5 @ Clemson – South Carolina is erratic. One week they are getting crushed by Florida 38-6, the next week they blow out Tennessee 63-38. Clemson is having a solid season, but like Alabama, they are not Clemson! this year. The defense is excellent but the offense leaves a little bit to be desired.
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It’s a rivalry game and South Carolina has shown they can play with the best. Getting 2TDs and the hook is too tempting. I’ll put a quatloo on the Cocks.

Appalachian State -4.5 @ Georgia Southern – Georgia Southern is another team fading in the home stretch. The Eagles have lost three in a row and stands at 5-6. App State snapped their 2 game with a convincing won over Old Dominion last week.

GSU is not your father’s triple option GSU. They are 8th in passing offense. But the strength of the App State defense is the secondary. They are holding opposing offenses to 50.3% completion rate.
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Meanwhile the Eagle defense can’t stop the run. App State is about to run up and down the field and easily cover the spread. 

Marshall -6.5 vs Georgia State–  Staying in the Fun Belt - Georgia State is a huge disappointment this year. The defense has regressed and the offense has fallen off a cliff. It started out the season with predictions they could challenge for the Fun Belt title, Now they won't be bowl eligible.

​I'm sure they are looking forward to closing out the season by traveling to Huntington to  play the conference's most physical team and best defense. 

The Herd has shown no let down since their victory over Notre Dame in week two. Between their rock solid defense and terrific run game they are playing the best football in the league. I'll put a quatloo on the surging Herd. 

And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more - here is the 2022 Week 13 Bettors Guide

Remember the 2023 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 11th at the Westgate SuperBook

It’s time to sell high on teams coming off upset wins and fade teams that may be looking ahead to rivalry week. The SEC is also has the annual Dolly Madison cupcake buffet before rivalry week. Some of thise cupcakes may not taste so good after the game.

Here’s my picks for week 12:

Boston College +21 at Notre Dame – Simply put, Notre Dame plays up or down to the level of the competition. They beat #9 Clemson and #13 North Carolina yet lost to Marshall and Stanford. They just survived a scare from Navy last week. How focused will they be against Boston College with USC up next week?

Boston College may have found their QB. Emmett Moorhead threw for 330 yards in an upset victory at NC State last Saturday.

With no chance of a bowl, this is basically Boston College’s Super Bowl. The Eagles should be able to cover the large spread.

Investors should note – This season, the Domers are 1-5 ATS as a favorite, including 0-5 as double-digit chalk including two outright losses

UL Lafayette +24.0 @ Florida State - Florida State has now ripped off three straight wins by a combined score of 124-22. Time to sell them at a high with Florida up next week. 

FSU QB Jordan Travis has been having a great season, averaging 8.9 yards per passing attempt. He will be tested as the Ragin’ Cajuns have an solid secondary. ULL is allowing just 6.9 yards per attempt ( 25th overall).Louisiana is also stout against the run as it’s in the top half in every major rushing defensive category.  

UL Lafayette has been a Sun belt power but has slipped a bit with HC Billy Napier off to the same Florida team FSU faces next week. But they will be motivated and the defense will keep this game close. 

Navy +16.5 @ Central Florida - It’s also not a great spot for UCF. They are coming off three straight huge wins over Cincinnati, Memphis and Tulane. Next week they have War on I-4 against South Florida.

UCF relies on QB John Rhys Plumlee and the rushing game. Navy ranks in the top 25 in just about every rush defensive category. It’s an 11:00 game which means a slow start for both teams. And Navy will bleed the clock with their methodical triple option.
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Navy travels well. The are 5-0 ATS on the road this year. I’ll take Navy and the points against a UCF going through the motions.
Investors should note -  The service academies are 41-22-2 ATS when getting more than two touchdowns since 2005.

Colorado State +22.5 vs. Air Force – Conversely fading a Service Academy laying over two touchdowns is just as appealing as taking one as the dog in that scenario. A game with limited possessions just makes it so much tougher to build bigger margins.

Plus, I don’t think the market has fully caught up to Colorado State’s offensive improvement in recent weeks. First, Clay Millen has returned under center from injury, which is a massive upgrade over the incompetent backups that saw action while he missed time.

On the other side of the ball, Air Force obviously runs as much as any team in the country. That actually plays into the hands of Colorado State, which has had much more success defending the run.
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Investors should note:  Since 2005, service academies have gone 37-57-2 ATS as favorites of more than two touchdowns, including an even worse clip of 20-30-2 ATS when laying over three touchdowns.

Vanderbilt +14.5 vs. Florida – Another look ahead spot. Florida faces Florida State next week and may be looking past Vandy in a sleepy Noon kickoff. Vandy is still in the hunt for a bowl and looks to avenge a 42-0 slaughter at the hands off the Gators last year.
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It's also another game where the favored team relies on the run and the underdog can defend the run. 

Vandy should score enough points against a suspect Gator defense to keep this one within the number.

Investors should note - Florida is 0-8 ATS as a road favorite. That includes four consecutive outright losses — all as favorites of over touchdown.

UCLA +1.5 vs. USC – Getting in on UCLA at a low after losing to Arizona last week. The Bruins were likely looking ahead to this game.  It’s finally time to fade USC which has played only two Top 30 teams, a loos to Utah and lucky win over Oregon State.

These teams are eerily similar - both have top-10 offenses and pathetic defenses. That said, USC’s defense and special teams are worse.  And USC’s offense just lost it’s best RB in Travis Dye.

USC also hasn’t seen a true mobile quarterback this year. Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s mobility and scrambling ability which put a huge stress on USC’s DL.
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Investors should note -  Chip Kelly is 16-8-2 ATS as a conference underdog. That includes a 9-0-1 ATS mark as a short underdog between 1-3 points.

UAB +15 at LSU – LSU escaped with a win over a short handed Arkansas to clinch the SEC West. That was after a huge win over Bama the week before. Expect the Tigers to come out a bit flat this week.

Meanwhile, UAB is still fighting for bowl eligibility. And with a conference title game appearance out of reach, this becomes the Blazers’ Super Bowl.

Add to that, UAB is undervalued with quarterback Dylan Hopkins back after missing time with injury. He’s significantly better than backup Jacob Zeno, who came in against Western Kentucky in relief of the injured Hopkins and eventually blew the lead in a three-point loss.

UAB then dropped its next two games with Zeno starting before blowing out North Texas last week in Hopkins’ return.
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UAB also features one of the nation’s best running backs in DeWayne McBride, who averages an amazing 6.9 yards per carry. He leads a methodical, run-heavy offense that can shorten games and set up explosive passing opportunities. LSU struggles against the run ranking outside the top 100 in rush defense.
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UAB has a pretty good defense and can contain mobile QB, critical when facing Jayden Daniels. 

Illinois +18 @ scUM – I don’t want to jinx it but this spread is just too tempting. First, scUM is in a huge look ahead spot with Ohio State and a likely spot in the CFP on the line next week. Booger man will also keep things close to the vest and keep things off the tape for Ryan Day.

That, and both teams love to run and can the defend the run which means a running clock and short game. The over/under is set at 41 which means Illinois should need just 12 points. They can do that.

UTSA -12.5 @ Rice – Just a bad matchup for Rice. UTSA has a top five most prolific passing attack and Rice ranks below 100 in defending the pass. Teams are scorching the Owl secondary. Over the last four games Rice has let up 41, 56, 30 and 45 points. UTSA will easily exceed that average.

UTSA has won seven in a row and a win here secures a spot in the CUSA championship game. The Roadrunners will not let down.

Illinois will be more fired up for this game so I’ll take the Illini and the huge points.

And an  Over I’m taking:

Old Dominion @ Appalachian State Over 51.0 - Appalachian State’s run game has been humming ranking 27th in explosiveness. Old Dominion has a below-average rush defense that ranks 74th overall, so Appalachian State should have no trouble running the ball.

ODU  ranks 10th in the nation in explosiveness, while Appalachian State’s defense sits 92nd in explosiveness allowed.
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Old Dominion plays at an incredibly fast pace, ranking 14th in seconds per play. Expect plenty of points in this one. 

And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2022 Week 12 bettors Guide

Remember, the 2023 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 11th at the Westgate SuperBook

Well the winning streak came to a halt, but barely. I went 5-6 last week but I’m sure I will rally.

Before I get into football, college basketball has tipped off for the 2022-2023 season. Providence alum, Friar John, from our local watering hole had a trivia question - which seven Catholic schools that have won the NCAA basketball championship? And no, Gonzaga has not won a championship - answer below
 
Just when it looked like the Pac 12 was going to get someone into the playoffs, the best teams imploded.
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Oregon took a 34-27 lead late in the 4th quarter and there was this wild finish

Washington HC Kalen Deboer brought in QB Michael Penix from Indiana and has revived the Husky offense. They are #25 overall, just beat rival Oregon for the first time on 5 years and have a shot for the Pac 12 Championship.

UCLA’s chances went down the toilet (and cost me a wager) with an outright loss to a bad Arizona team. Not sure when the last time two Top 10 teams lost at home on the same day. 

The Pac 12’s chances at the CFP now rest with USC. They need a win over UCLA and the stars to align correctly to get in.

The Condoms piled it on Colorado 55-17 getting me a cover on Friday night helped by this two point coversion

Bama was this close to losing their third game. Bama was leading 30-24 when Ole Miss carved up the Tide defense and got into the red zone with 2 minutes left. But a 4th down pass into the end zone was incomplete and Alabama escaped Oxford with a chance at a New Year Six game intact.

Their final chance at the CFP evaporated when LSU squeaked by Arkansas 13-10 (getting me the cover by the hook. Gary was doubtful about the hook, now he’s a believer). Along with Mississippi’s loss, LSU has clinched the SEC West.

Georgia clinched the SEC East by slaughtering Mississippi State (costing me a quatloo). I thought might sneak in a cover after the Starkville Bulldogs ran a punt return for a TD to get the game within five at the half, but the Athens Bulldogs shut down the other MSU in the second half for an easy 45-19 win.  

And a shout out to Mrs Big Flippy. While the Sax Lady will likely have her alma mater in the playoffs, there is one team that is in the play offs. Wisconsin LaCrosse is in the NCAA Div III playoffs. They will face 9th ranked Wartburg. Go Eagles!
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Clemson rebounded from their loss last week with a beat down over Louisville 31-10 helped by this TD run by Will Shipley. 

Hurdling never gets old.
 
Meanwhile, North Carolina beat Wake in an expected high scoring thriller (which still managed to hit the under) 36-34. The ACC championship is now locked in with UNC vs Clemson. As Mootsie points out – both teams lost to Notre Dame.
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Mike was in awe of Jordan Jefferson’s catch against Buffalo but I’ll put this catch by Domer Brayden Lenzy up against that catch. 

Notre Dame led 35-13 at the half but were stuffed by the Anchor boys 19-0 in the second half and I a got an easy cover. 

West Virginia has been terrible on the road but a tough out at home (4-1 ATS). On Saturday the Neers beat Oklahoma for the first time since joining the Big 12 23-20 on a walk off FG.

WVU's AD wasn't celebrating though - he was fired on Sunday. 

The Big Ten West is a steaming pile of sheep manure. Purdue handed Illinois its second consecutive defeat which means everyone has at least three conference losses, and two of the four teams tied for first are 6-4. Iowa continues to win with no offense. They beat Wisconsin 24-10 despite gaining only 146 yards of offense (Wiscy had 227)

The Hawkeye’s scoring drives were a pick six, 17 yards after a blocked punt and 18 yards after a 41 yard punt return.  
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Ohio State went for the style points. After struggling to beat Northwestern, they destroyed Indiana 56-14. 

Ohio State and Georgia in the top 10 in yards per play on offense and defense makes sense. Oddly, so is Florida State. The Noles humiliated Syracuse 38-3 on Saturday. 

I lost another wager going against Gus Malzahn. UCF went into the Big Easy and put away the Green Brucies 38-31. There’s now a three-way tie atop the AAC, but the Knights have tie breakers over Cincinnati and Tulane. The league title game will likely be a rematch of the Knights and whoever wins the Nov. 25 game between the Bearcats and the Green. Should UCF win the title then Gus Malzahn will be the fourth straight UCF HC to take the Knights to a New Years six game.

I guess I should have seen Tulane's loss coming. it was their 61st straight loss to a ranked team. 

Speaking of losing streaks, Boston College snapped their 26 game losing streak to ranked teams when they took down NC State 21-20. The Eagles had the 2nd longest among Power Five teams at 26. Rutgers owns the longest at 36. Fellow Big Ten team Nebraska takes over 2nd place at 21. 

And it was another reminder to never bet on or against NC State. They can beat anyone and lose to anyone. Just do yourself a favor and stay away. 
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With Kansas stumbling down the stretch, there’s a new leader for Coach of the Year. UConn’s Jim Mora inherited a program that went 6-32 under Randy Edsall. In his first he’s going bowling after beating Liberty (a team that just beat Arkansas) 36-33 to go 6-5. 

Trivia answer
Holy Cross - 1947
La Salle - 1954
San Francisco - 1955, 1956
Loyola (IL) - 1963
Marquette - 1977
Georgetown - 1984
Villanova - 1985, 2016, 2018​

Remember, the 2023 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 11th at the Westgate SuperBook

It's been a good two weeks. I went 18-5 during GO JUMBO and 6-3 last week (7-2 if you too the cover instead of the money line on Oregon State)

I'm sure I'll regress to the mean soon but here are this weeks picks

After several weeks of big and then bigger games, this week is setting up to be let down week. After huge wins, teams are going to be in let down mode starting with:

Navy +17.0 vs Notre Dame -  It’s a major potential letdown spot for the Irish after absolutely dominating Clemson in prime time last Saturday. Getting 2 TDs  and a FG in a game with a short total of 42 always catches my eye, especially with a service academy that will bleed the clock on every down, limiting the number of overall possessions.

The Irish do not dominate. They are 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in 2022, losing a pair of those games outright against Marshall and Stanford.

I’ll take the Middies at home for a quatloo.
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Investors should note  - the Service academies are 40-22-2 when catching more than two touchdowns since 2005. 

Arkansas +3.5 vs LSU – LSU is coming off a huge win over Bama. The Tigers are great at home at night. This game is away at noon. The last time LSU played at before lunch CT they got crunched by Tennessee. 40-3.

Meanwhile, Arkansas should play all out after losing to Liberty last weekend. The Hogs figure to run the ball down the Tigers throat, the weak spot in LSU’s defense.
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I’m going pass on this one even though the hook looks intriguing. The Sharps like Arkansas too. But, LSU knows it needs one more victory to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Just want to warn everyone thinking this short spread is easy money.

Going to root for the Tigers though to keep Bama out of the SEC championship and CFP

Investors should note – Arkansas under head coach Sam Pittman is an impressive 12-6 ATS record as an underdog, that includes an 8-3 ATS mark against top-20 teams and a perfect 6-0 mark excluding games against Alabama and Georgia.

Mississippi State +16.0 vs Georgia – That was impressive. Georgia’s defense dominated Tennessee in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Can Mississippi State find a way to beat that defense?

The other MSU’s  quick, short-passing attack that neutralizes Georgia’s defensive strengths. Additionally, Mississippi State has had one of the best red-zone offenses in the country, scoring 23 touchdowns on 27 trips inside the 20.

Mike Leach’s Bulldogs also have excelled in the red zone on defense. Holding a Georgia offense to field goals instead of TDs could ultimately decide this cover, especially when UGA has been known to stall at times inside the 20.

It doesn’t hurt that Mississippi State plays at a very methodical pace, unlike Tennessee, which should limit the number of possessions. That always favors the large underdog.
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I’ll puta quatloo on the Starkville Bulldogs to cover  against a large spread at home against the Athens Bulldogs in a big let down situation after huge wins over rival Florida and Tennessee.

Investors should  note -  Since 2005, the Pirate  is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) as an underdog of 2 TDs or more. That makes him the most profitable coach that span. If you excliude Bama , which has his number, that record improves to 16-4. 

Tulane -1.5 vs Central Florida  - Maybe it’s Bruce, I’m not sure why Tulane gets no respect by bettors, maybe it’s because Bruce is an alum, but the Green Wave have done nothing but make money for their backers all season. They’re the nation’s most profitable team with an 8-1 ATS record.

Central Florida could be in let down mode after two huge hard fought wins over Cincinnati and Memphis – two games they could have easily lost.

To stop UCF you have to stop their dynamic RPO run game. That’s a strength for Tulane. They rank in the top 25 in yards per rush allowed. The DL front clogs the middle of the field, allowing its superb LB corp to roam and make tackles. Nick Anderson and Dorian Williams lead the pair of linebacker in the conference along with safety Larry Brooks, and this unit will be able to contain this explosive UCF offense.
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On the other side of the ball, UCF struggles in getting to the QB. With a clean pocket, QB Michael Pratt will carve up a vulnerable UCF secondary.
I’ll take Wave laying under a field goal at home for a Min Mega

Investors should note - Since head coach Willie Fritz arrived at Tulane in 2016, the Green Wave have the nation’s most profitable team to back at home. Over that span, they’ve gone a ridiculous 26-11 ATS

Texas -7.0 vs TCU - Is this the week TCU finally has to face a healthy starting quarterback for an entire game?

The Horny Frogs have knocked out the starting quarterbacks for Oklahoma, Kansas State (and the backup), Kansas, played against Oklahoma State;s injured Spencer Sanders, TCU then knocked out the starting QB for Texas Tech. Amazingly, TCU has still needed a few miracles to cover in those games.

Fortunately for Texas, even of the Hypnotoad knocks out the Horn’s starting QB Quinn Ewers, it has a very competent backup quarterback in Hudson Card. Card actually has better overall numbers than Quinn Ewers in many aspects.

Regardless of who plays under center, Texas should absolutely shred this Horned Frog stop unit with explosive passing plays through the air and on the ground with the nation’s best running back in Bijan Robinson.

On the other side of the ball, don’t expect TCU to find much success on the ground against a very stingy Texas run defense. It should have success through the air against a Longhorn secondary that has holes, especially since Texas doesn’t generate much pressure.
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This will also mark the TCU’s toughest road test by far, having only faced West Virginia and Kansas away from home in league play in two tightly-contested victories.

The luck finally runs out for TCU, and Texas pulls away late. I’ll put a Mini Mega on Texas to cover against an extremely lucky TCU.

Strange investing nugget -  Since 2005, n the months of November and December, undefeated teams have gone just 5-12 ATS as touchdown-plus underdogs away from home. Tennessee became the latest victim just last week.

Auburn -1.5 vs Texas A&M - Texas A&M is reeling. They’ve lost five straight and has only beaten two Di 1A teams this year, Miami (FL) which doesn’t look all that impressive now and Arkansas which they beat on a missed walk off FG by the Hogs. The locker room is toast too, after multiple suspensions too.
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Meanwhile, after moving on from dead man walking Bryan Harsin the Tigers have rallied around interim HC Cadillac Williams.

It’s also as a great matchup for the Auburn offense, which thrives on the run game whereas A&M’s rush defense is the weak link in their defense.
Last week, Florida became the latest team to gash the Aggies on the ground, rushing for over 300 yards averaging 6.5 yards per attempt.
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I’ll take the fired up home team laying a short number against a lifeless road team.

Investors should note -  Since 2005, Auburn is the most-profitable short home favorite (3.5 or less) in conference games at 7-1 ATS. ​

Ole Miss vs Alabama under 65.0 – This could be Lane Kiffin’s dress rehearsal for the Auburn job. Something is just off with this year’s Bama team but the run defense is good. That is what the Rebels try to do.
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Mississippi defense limits running explosive plays so this game will be one of lengthy clock chewing drives. I’ll take the under for a quatloo on a rather large 65 point total.​

I would take Ole Miss to cover too but I hate betting against Saban after a loss.

Investors should note – I’m going against the trend here. The over has hit five of the last seven between these two
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UCLA -19.5 vs Arizona – Arizona’s defense is the worst. Literally the worst in college football. They rank 130th in rush defense and 130th in assing defense. UCLA will have no problem gashing the Wildcat defense all day.

UCLA sucks against the run but Arizona can’t do that either.

Arizona is going to get behind early, start throwing and will have multi picks on the day

Army @ Troy under 45.5 – Both teams love to play deliberate and run the ball. Both teams defend the run quite well too.

Army is 3-3 under against Div 1A while Troy is 6-3 under. Troy has allowed 47 points in the last four games combined. It will be an ugly game…unless you have the under.

San Jose State -2.5 @ San Diego State – San Jose State is already bowl eligible with a 6-2 record. The rely on their defense which is the best in the Mountain West in rush defense (17th overall) and sacks (10th overall).

San Diego State’s offense is a mess. They can’t run and are playing wither a 2nd string QB or injured 1st stringer. Doesn’t matter, they both are struggling with a combined 8 TDs and 7 picks.

The Spaztec’s defense is mediocre, a far cry from years pass. They do get to the QB but SJSU is excellent in pass blocking (12th overall)
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I’ll take the other Spartans to over the short spread to stay on Fresno state’s heels in the MWC. ​

Remember - the 2023 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 11th 

​And don't forget your drink coupons

It’s nice to start out a recap with MSU. Forget about the late game play calling. That’s  nit picking in the bigger scheme of things. After the way the season had started and after the tunnel incident, Mel and the coaches could have lost the team. And losing the team would have had affected recruiting, the portal and have had implications for years to come.

But the team rallied. They rallied behind the coaches and came together as a team. The story line is how they beat a ranked team on the road, Mel’s fourth in four years, but the real story is how this team came together and rallied under the most difficult of circumstances.

​All of a sudden, a bowl game is not out of the question and a winning season is entirely possible – a complete 180 from the outlook on Friday. 

We’re barely out of October and Bama and Clemson are out of the CFP discussion.

Clemson finally went off the rails. After several close calls (Wake, NC State, Syracuse) the Tigers finally crashed under the watchful eyes of Touchdown Jesus 35-14. It was Dabo’s worst regular season loss.

Remember when Dabo said there was no quarterback controversy,  For the second straight week, he pulled DJ Uiagalelei for Cade Klubnik, only for Klubnik to throw a bad pick from his own end zone that led to an Irish TD and go up 21-0. Back came Uiagalelei, who threw a pick-six to make it 28-0.

Brian Kelly was a running joke at the beginning of the season with his faux Gaux Tigers accent. But he has gotten LSU, especially QB Jayden Daniels, to get better every week. The Tigers have likely shown the most improvement from week 1 (loss to Florida State) to week 10 (win over Bama). The gutsy call for 2 in OT to win the game will go down in LSU football lore.

​It’s the first time since 2010 that Bama has two losses before the Iron Bowl. Bryce Young nearly pulled another rabbit out of his hat but the defense, primarily the secondary, finally put him in a hole that he couldn’t escape. 

It was supposed to be a an exciting game, a game to decide the SEC. Not even close. Tennessee’s unstoppable offense completely turtled in front of UGA’s defense. The Dawg’s sacked Hooker six times and the crowd induced seven false starts. The Vols didn’t score a TD until 4 minutes left and the game already out of reach.

Kirby and Georgia have now inherited Nick’s mantle as the most dominant team in football. Everyone else is playing for second.

Vegas agrees, UGA is even money to win it all. Ohio State is next at 2-1

The Bucknuts will have to play better than they did in a 21-7 win against Northwestern if they want to have a prayer against Georgia. They trailed 7-0 until 2 minutes left in the first quarter.

​Granted, they were playing in howling wins but the Cats defense is just plain horrible. They just let up 33 points against an Iowa team that struggles to score against a Women’s Bible study group.

If you want to make money betting on in-game wagers put your money on TCU when they get behind. For the sixth straight game, TCU came from behind to win. Next up is Texas which has blown or nearly blown three straight double digit leads. 

Win the game a the Toads are a lock for the Big 12 championship. The committee will have a tough time keeping an undefeated TCU out of the CFP.

Besides TCU, the other beneficiary of the Bama and Clemson collapse is Oregon. That 49-3 opening loss to Georgia still stings but might be excusable if the 1 loss Ducks run the table. The schedule is pretty tough the rest of the way, home vs #25 Washington, home vs #13, @ Oregon State and then the pac12 champion. The resume would be good enough. 

But good luck trying to figure out which one loss to Georgia team would get in, an SEC Tennessee which didn’t win its division or a Pac 12 champion Oregon. ​

I had my doubts about Bo Nix but this week he became just the second FBS player since 1996 to have 2 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs and a receiving TD in the same game.

UCLA’s Dorian Thompson Robinson had only 4 TDs but this run was just sick.

​You like points? How about this - SMU 77, Houston 63. It was the highest scoring game in regulation ever. How crazy was it? These two offenses combined for 16 drives in the first half, and 13 resulted in touchdowns. The Mustangs dropped a whopping 56 points on Houston before halftime. 

SMU’s scoring streak ended after nine consecutive touchdowns with a three-and-out drive in the third quarter. 

As Joe texted - the Over/Under was 67. the loser almost got the cover by itself!

​Just go ahead and hand the College Coach of the year to Lance Leopold. He took a Kansas team with below average MAC talent and has them 6-3 and bowl eligible.

The Jayhawks 37-16 win over Oklahoma State meant that week 10 was the first time since 1998 that Bama lost, Clemson lost and Kansas beat a ranked team.  

​The coaching carousel keeps on churning. On Sunday, South Florida fired head football coach Jeff Scott/. Scott went 4-26 record in 3 seasons. Only one of Scott’s four wins overall came against an FBS school (Temple) with the others coming against FCS competition (Citadel, Florida A&M and Howard).

After losing to a bad Temple team 54-28 it was apparent that Bulls were not making progress.

Remember the 2023 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 11th 2023 at the Westgate SuperBook

Go Jumbo was fairly modest. Not only was our attendance down a bit with just four of us, Pat, Woz, Berj and I but the SuperBook was way down in viewers. Normally, on Saturdays by the time the noon games  roll around, all the seats are full, people are jammed in the aisles and the place is going crazy when a crowd favorite rips off a big play. And it gets even more bustling when the NFL kicks off.

Not this year, there were a few empty seats, the aisles were clear and the crowd noise was actually tolerable. Not sure why it’s down so much. COVID is in the past. It’s more expensive to travel but not any more than a few bad picks.

It did have one advantage though. To get a drink all you needed to do was walk up to the bar and you got served pretty much straight away. We didn’t leave too many coupons behind by the end of the night.

Guess we will see if things return to normal next year, on our end and at the book.
​
Speaking of which, the modified, temporary Executive Committee (Pete failed to attend for a lame reason, you can ask him why he didn’t come) voted that November 11, 2023 will be next year’s GO JUMBO trip. Avoiding SEMA (and the sky high hotel rates) pushed us into Mid November. 

As far as activates, Pat, Woz and I ventured over to the Linq to visit the plaza and ride the High Roller Ferris Wheel. The wheel was fun but not worth doing again. The plaza will need several more trips. We made one bar with several Irish pubs that will need to be visited next time. Top Golf should be on the agenda next year too.

As far as what we came for, we all came out ahead. I had the best weekend ever on sports investing. I went 18-5 on the college games including 2-0 on parlays.

Even though I only had 5 losses one really chapped my posterior region. I took West Virginia getting a TD versus TCU. TCU was leading 34-31 with a minute to go in the game. The Wildcats had it 4th and 1 and just needed a first down to ice the game. TCU made the right decision to go for it but rather try a QB sneak or some type of run play they through a bomb into the end zone. TD! Toads win and cover on a meaningless TD. I got Dyked Dicked. That play still frosts me. 

Knowing that when I’m successful on Saturdays, I normally give a a bunch back on the pros, I dialed back the NFL investments. Sunday was profitable too as I went 2-1.

Not much else to report on. Pat and I knew that the State game might get ugly so we left the book and had a cigar. Pat’s solar powered outhouse with propane heated seat is up and running. Berg is semi-retired waiting for his few remaining clients to figure out that his value add is dwindling. Woz won his golf tournament with his buddies.

Most importantly, everyone’s health is fine. A topic of discussion that becomes more frequent as the years go by.
​
My good picks have continued into this week as I’m already 3-1 going into Friday. For Friday I’m going with

Duke @ Boston College under 47 – Both teams play at a slow pace and BC’s starting QB is out. The Eagles will be starting a red shirt Freshman. BC’s offense was bad before the injury. It will be even worse with him in.

The Eagle rush defense is good which is what Duke relies on. Neither team is going to move the ball well. I’ll put a quatloo on the under.

Oregon State Money Line @ Washington – Playing the weather angle here. Washington’s Michael Penix, a former Hoosier who terrorized State for years, leads the country in passing this year. But the weather is supposed to be rainy and windy. The Huskies offense is a one trick pony. Stop the pass and they are dead in the water. Mother nature will take care of that.

Oregon State has a good pass defense anyways but a little help can go a long way. The Beaver offense is more balanced and should crush a poor UW defense.

If the weather were nice this would be a fun high scoring game. With the conditions it becomes more one sided. I’ll take that side for a quatloo at +165


​Here’s what I’m going with on Saturday. I’ll be at a beer fest but hope to find some TVs to watch:

Georgia vs Tennessee Under 65.0 – After Tennessee took down Bama this game set up to be the biggest of the year. It’s only the 4th time #1 and #2 in the AP poll have faced of in the regular season this century.

Who doesn’t want to see Hendon Hooker play against UGA’s defense? If there is a chink on the Dawg defense, it’s the pass defense. Florida QB Anthony Richardson just got done throwing for 271 yards against  Georgia last week.

Kirby is smart (insert groan here). He’s going to go run heavy and milk the play clock as much as possible. The last thing he wants is to get into a shootout with Tennessee. Playing slow is already baked into the Dawg DNA, they rank 119th in seconds per play.

I’m going against the sharps here who have pushed the line up from 60 to 65 so you might want to stay away from the under. I’m in for a quatloo.

A more intriguing wager would be to take the Tennessee on the money line at +240. UGA’s defense has shown some leaks against Kent State and Mizzou. They haven’t seen anything like the sophisticated, talented, up tempo offense Tennessee is about to throw at them. If Tennessee can get up early and force Georgia into a shootout it’s game over. 

LSU +13.5 vs Alabama - The next biggest game of the weekend follows right after UGA and Tennessee.

​Bama is not quite Bama this year. They struggle on the road (@ Texas missing its starting QB; @ A&M which was two yards from a win and a loss to the Vols) and they struggle against teams that can pass. Who are they playing? LSU with a talented QB and 4 WRs that could play on Sundays. Where are they playing – Death Valley.

This is not a good match up for Bama I’ll take the points for a quatloo.

 Florida Money Line @ Texas A&M – A&M is toast. With four straight losses the season is over. Now there are multiple suspensions meaning Jimbo has lost the locker room. They Aggies have only beaten two FBS teams, Miami (not that good after all) and a miracle 99 yard scoop six to beat Arkansas.
​
Florida’s leading run offense (6.1 YPC) will shred the Aggies lack luster rush defense.

I’ll put a quatloo on the Gators to win outright over A&M who is about ready to toss in the towel at +135

Kansas Money Line vs Oklahoma State – Kansas State just showed how overrated Oklahoma State is. The Pokes are just plain beat up. QB Spencer Sanders is questionable (Mullet Man’s son is the back up), along with down two WRs and offensive line men.

Kansas is coming off a bye and getting healthy. QB Jalon Daniels could be back though Jason Bean has been doing fine in his stead. The sophisticated JayHawk offense could have some new wrinkles against an OSU dwindling defense.

I’ll take the Fighting Leopolds to avenge last year’s 55-3 spanking for a quatloo on the money line at -115

Texas -2.5 @ Kansas State – Selling Kansas State at a high after their beat down over Oklahoma State last week. Their 48-0 win was the biggest shutout win over a top 10 team in almost 50 years.

The Wildcats benefitted from being +3 in turnovers and facing a bad run team. In a battle of two elite backs, the Texas defense has a much better shot at containing Deuce Vaughn than Kansas State has in containing Bijon Robinson.

​I'll take the Longhorns to cover for a quatloo. 

Army +7.5 vs Air Force – Air Force is not quite flying high. The barely beat Navy, lost to a bad Utah State and scored only 14 in a loss to Boise State.
Army has put up 90 points over the last two week. Granted it was against Colgate and UL Monroe but that is still a ton of points.

It’s a strange 11:30 am ET kick off which is 9:30 am for the fly boys. It should be a low scoring game so I’ll take Army to keep it close for a quatloo.

You might want to take a look at the under 40.0 Games between the service academies have gone under 41-9-1

Syracuse ML @ Pitt – As I was boarding my flight on Monday I took a look at the opening lines for this week’s college football games. I was a bit surprised on one line – Syracuse was getting points. I texted the gang to jump on this one.

Last week I went against Syracuse because Notre Dame has a competent QB and outstanding TE. That’s not the case with Pitt. Slovis is awful. The Orange’s superior defense will easily contain the Panthers offense.

Pitt’s defense is overrated and Syracuse will be able to pound away.

I’ll put a quatloo on Syracuse and the money line at +150​

​I’m also going with a small Point Whore Parlay with
UNC Charlotte +16.0 vs Western Kentucky – going with the new HC angle
James Madison +7.5 @ Louisville – Jimmy Madison’s run defense will contain Malik Cunningham
 
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2022 Week 10 Bettors Guide

GO JUMBO!

I think it’s the 20th GO JUMBO trip but I’m not sure. No one quite knows when we started. My earliest (alcohol infused) records are from 2003 which would make this number 20. But since there is some doubt, I’ll call this #19 with one GO MICRO with Woz and I.

Next year baby! The Big 20!

And as befitting GO JUMBO’s last year as a teenager, umm, well, let’s just say we had fun as teenagers but glad we survived. Our bodies can no longer handle the abuse we used to give them. They are getting their paybacks and them some. 

I plan to do more sedate things like kick back, consume adult beverages at a more steady and gentile pace, more barrel aged rather than fire brewed, and watch plenty of football. 

I’m off to a good start wagering with a parlay win by Southern Miss and a cover by Washington State on Thursday and taking the money line and East Carolina paid off too on Friday.  

​I may regret it though. In years past wins on Thursday and Friday were offset by a multiple of losses on Saturday. Perhaps this is the year that trend comes to an end.

After many bad practice bets it’s time for the real thing. Hopefully I’ve gotten all my bad picks out of the way. But first some bets I will not be making:
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Obviously, the Big Al Rule prevents any type of bet for or against UConn. Also, I never bet on State after the 2018 debacle against Ohio State. Finally, I give up on betting for or against NC State. They are wildly frustrating as Pat found out Thursday night. 

And I told him that Tennessee never covers on GO JUMBO weekend, well almost never (2-13 ATS) so what does he do on our group parlay. Yup, takes Tennessee. I’ll grant you Tennessee is actually good this year and they are at home. But 12 points is a bunch to cover. We will see.

Here’s what I’m going with:

Notre Dame +3.0 @ Syracuse – The Orange finally played a competent team (Clemson) and lost despite having a 4-1 advantage in turnovers. When Clemson decided to hang onto the ball they rolled the Orange defense.
​
The Domers run game will blow through the Syracuse 3-3-5 defense. Joe hates it when I bet on the Notre Dame but he’s not here. For me, I hate betting on road teams so I’ll keep it to a quatloo. 

Miami (OH) -8.0 @ Akron – Akron is next world bad. Miami star QB Brett Gabbert will be back and healthy and feast on a truly pathetic Zip secondary.

I have no problem going against the home team here. Since 2005, Akron has been the worst home underdog by a wide margin. Over that span, the Zips have gone 17-36 (32.1%) ATS, failing to cover by an average of 7.7 points per game.

I’ll go with a Mega on the Redskins.

UCF +1.0 vs Cincinnati – Finally, a home team to bet on. Cincinnati may be 6-1 but they have feasted on teams that don’t run the ball well (Indiana, SMU, Tulsa) and lost or nearly lost to teams that can run (Arkansas and South Florida). UCF can run the ball. The Knights rank in the Top 20 in yards per carry.

Add to that, penalties have been a huge problem for the BearCats. They rank dead last with 86 YPG on infractions.
​
I’ll take the Knights to bounce back in the Bounce House. Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell is 1-8 ATS (11.1%) when ranked on the road against an unranked conference opponent, failing to cover by an average of 7.4 points per game

Kansas State -1.5 vs Oklahoma State – Yeah, I know, KSU is likely missing their QB Adrian Martinez. But back up Will Howard nearly beat the Cowboys two years ago. He won’t be intimidated.

Wildcat RB Deuce Vaughn will have a field day against the suddenly suspect Cowboy rush defense. Kansas State is also vulnerable against the run but OSU struggles to move the ball on the ground. Which means Okie State QB Spencer Sanders will be relied on to move the chains. He will struggle against a top 25 Kansas State secondary.

I’ll put a Mini Mega on the Wildcats to cover.

Toledo -6.5 @ Eastern Michigan – I was showing off to the gang my yeti coffee mug I bought specially for GO JUMBO. It’s black with a logo that says “Run the Damn Ball” love it and I will keep it full of Jamesons to sneak into the SuperBook.
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And it’s exactly what Toledo is going to do against eastern – run the damn ball. EMU is awful against the run (94th) while Toledo with dual threat QB Dequan Finn is pretty good (34th). The last time eastern faced a running team in Northern Illinios they got rocked 39-10.
​
I’ll go with the Rockets to rock the Hurons for a Mini Mega

Texas A&M money line vs Ole Miss – Just going with eh fatigue and injury factor here. Ole Miss is plaing it’s ninth straight game without a bye and is a bit banged up. A&M is coming off a bye and is playing it’s first home game since Sept 17th.

Ole Miss is a bit overrated. Their best win is…Kentucky at home.

I’ll put a quatloo on  the home dog on the money line at +110
​
Missouri +4.5 @ South Carolina – Mr and Mrs H are going to be pleased with the pick. Mizzou’s defense is actually good ranking in the top 20 both against the pass and run. It’s why they were a couple of bad bounces away from beating Auburn and Kentucky and hung around with Georgia.

South Carolina is getting a lot of love after beating Kentucky and Texas A&M but the Wildcats lost their starting QB and A&M was down 17-0 early on the Gamecoks taking the opening KO to the house and two turnovers by the Aggies on their first two drives Yet, A&M nearly came back falling just short 30-24.
​
I’ll take the Tigers to cover in what should be a FG game. 

Some other wagers I’ll be making

A heavy favorite money line parlay at -147 with:
UCLA over Stanford
Oregon over Cal
Ohio State over Penn State
USC over Arizona

I’ll also go with and over parlay with:
Temple @ Navy
Georgia vs Florida

I’m sure when I get into the SuperBook with a wallet wanting to make some more bets, my wallet will win the argument.

And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2022 GO JUMBO Bettors Guide
 
 

Sometimes you just have to take the complexity out of things. Why look at offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses, how teams do on 3rd down, turnover margins, all that stuff. Over the last two weeks there is one very simple metric to look at. Whether you played at home.

Yup, that’s right. Over the last two weeks the home team in the Power 5 conference games went 36-8 straight up.

And that includes some nice upset wins like State over Wisconsin (+210 on the money line), Tennessee over Alabama (+260) and Colorado over Cal (+420). In fact, if you bet a quatloo on the money line on every Power 5 game, you would have bet 44 quatloos and end up plus 19.72 quatloos (44.8% profit)

Now granted, the home teams were favorites, even heavy favorites over the last two week. Digging in a little further home team favorites went 28-3 over the last two weeks, returning and even 8.00 quatloos. Home Dogs went 8-5 but returned a very profitable 11.72 (90%).

​Arizona State almost beat the trend with this fantastic catch

​So close. Great ending. Can't wait for football after dark this weekend.

And I might have to do a home team dog money line parlay this week.

The Coaching Carousel cranked up again this week as UNC Charlotte fired their head coach Will Healy. Healy was the talk of the Queen City after he took the Niners to their first and only bowl game in 2019. But the team began to spin downward after that season mainly as a result of the defense.

Last year’s Charlotte defense ranked 114th in scoring, so Healy overhauled the defensive staff in an attempt to fix things. The results – the Niners are 120th in passing defense, 129th in rushing defense, 131st (dead last) scoring defense and, as you can imagine 131st overall. 

All glory to the Hypnotoad!

Down 28-10 TCU came roaring back to beat Kansas State 38-38. The win puts them in a rather exclusive club. They became only the third team in college football history to win four games against teams ranked in the AP poll in the same calendar month.

The only other teams to do it: Stanford in November 2012 and Iowa in October 1960.
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The 1960 Hawkeyes actually played their first eight games against top-20 teams, going 7-1 in that stretch

The 1960 Hawkeyes actually played their first eight games against top-20 teams, going 7-1 in that stretch

This year's Iowa team? The offense is epically bad, screwing its hardworking defense against Ohio State. Ohio State took a 33-10 lead over Iowa in the third quarter despite only one scoring drive over 24 yards.

With six turnovers in the game, it took just 360 yards for the Buckeyes score 54 points since the Iowa offense was so historically inept that it effectively made Ohio State drives a chip-in. 
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The Hawkeye offense went 1-13 on third downs and with this scoop and score the  Iowa defense actually outscored the offense (again) 

We get it, Kirk, offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz is your son and you love him but its time for a Fredo kiss on the forehead.  

Iowa may have had six turnovers by Miami (FL) did them one better, actually two, by turning it over eight times in a 45-21 loss to Duke.

When Cristobal landed 11 highly touted transfers to join heralded quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, the hype train was primed and ready. The U was back!

Then the season began….
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Dropping the game against Texas A&M hurt, but losing to Middle Tennessee and now Duke is inexplicable. Every week, Cristobal's program seemingly springs a new leak and performs somehow worse than the week before. A bowl game seems like a pipe dream at this point.

Watch out Hugh Freeze haters but Liberty is 7-1. When quarterback Malik Willis left, we all thought the Flames and Freeze were done yet, they've kept winning, including a 41-14 stomping of BYU on Saturday

Liberty's lone loss came on a missed 2-point try against 6-1 Wake Forest. And Liberty has done it with three different starting QBs.
​
When Clemson trailed Syracuse 21-10 at the half on Saturday, the Tigers opened at  -9.5 for second half wagers. Clemson easily covered that number, outscoring the Orange 17-0 in the second half.  That makes  Dabo 11-2 against the second-half spread when trailing at halftime.

​And how about this thrilling ending between North Texas and UT San Antonio

Oregon is playing like the best one-loss team in the country, but its 49-3 beat down by Georgia will likely keep them out of the CFP.

Since 1950,only four teams have lost a game by 40-plus points and finished in the AP top 10 - 2016 Florida State, 2016 USC,  2007 Virginia Tech and of course last years Spartans.
​
Perhaps the most impressive stat of the season so far: Oregon has allowed one sack in seven games. For context last year Army led the nation’s in fewest sacks with 7 in 13 games but Army averaged 8 passes a game. Oregon averages 33. Impressive job by new OL coach Adrian Klemm.

Most meaningless stat - Purdue has never won a game right after a Taylor Swift album release.
​
2006: Lost to Penn St.
2008: Lost to Iowa
2010: Lost to Illinois
2012: Lost to Minnesota
2014: Lost to Nebraska
 2017: Lost to Northwestern
 2019: Lost to Nevada
2022: Lost to Wisconsin
 
Is Jimbo Fisher really worth all that money? With the loss this week to South Carolina dropping the Aggies to 3-4 he will undoubtedly finish the season unranked. That would make it the second year in a row that a preseason No. 6 A&M team will end up unranked.

​It would also mark the third time in six years that a Jimbo coached team went from the preseason top six to unranked. His last Florida State squad did so in 2017.

Bruce sent this one along. This guy got a penalty when he should have gotten a standing O

And finally, the Indiana Hoosiers are the first FBS team to lose 700 games. Pete is intentionally not mentioning this to Mrs Pete. Smart man. 

​It's here this weekend - 2022 GO JUMBO at the Westgate SuperBook. See you there!

After last weekends great slate of games, this week is the pause before the big weekend. Not only are scUM on a bye before squaring off next week but next weekend is GO JUMBO!

So it’s time to get your last practice bets in.

Here’s mine:

Syracuse +14.0 @ Clemson – This game should decide the ACC Coastal.

The improved play of Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei’s means that Clemson has an offense again to go along with their defense. It’s why they are ranked 5th and a likely contestant in the CFP if they win out.

But don’t underestimate Syracuse. The Orange defense has been incredible so far this year. The newly installed 3-3-5 is having great success. Only 17 opponent drives have crossed Syracuse’s 40-yard line, resulting in just 2.6 points per opportunity. Of its opponents’ 12 red zone drives, only six have turned into touchdowns.
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Compare that to Clemson which has allowed scores on 18 of 22 red zone drives. The Noles demonstrated that Clemson can be run on. They averaged 6.1 YPC last week. 

I know, you are not supposed to use the associative property when handicapping but both teams played NC State at home. Clemson won by 10 while Syracuse won by 15. Are they really two TDs different.

I’ll take Syracuse to cover but no quatloos.. Plus, this is Syracuse’s first real road game (UConn doesn’t count). Playing in death valley can have an affect on teams. 

Oklahoma State +6.0 vs Texas  - Oklahoma State blew it last weekend. The Cowboys were leading by 14 points with less than 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter, then let Horned Frogs roar back to tie it with under two minutes to play. TCU went on to win in double OT.  

The defense was again the issue. Oklahoma State was known for their defense last year but this year they have one of the worst pass defenses in college football, allowing 331.4 YPG through the air, and they are surrendering almost 480 yards per game.

Word that OSU QB Spencer Sanders may not play caused the opening line to move from Texas -1 to Texas -6.0. A very healthy move. Now, the lower ranked team is favored by nearly a TD on the road.

And Texas has not won a true road game this year. The beat down of Oklahoma was in the Cotton Bowl. In their only true road test the Horn lost to Texas Tech. 

It comes down to – who will play better, Bijan Robinson or a banged up Spencer Sanders? I’ll go against the easy answer and take the Pokes and the points. The underdog has won 5 straight. No quatloos though.

UCLA ML @ Oregon – The Bruins are the Rodney Dangerfields of college football. I mean, what else do they need to do to get your respect. They are 6-0 with consecutive thumpings over Washington and Utah.

OK, so five of those six games were at home and now UCLA must head to raucous Autzen Stadium. But back in 2020, UCLA lost by three in their last trip to Eugene, which included a pick-six by its backup quarterback.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed that game, but he will be on the field this Saturday and is playing at the highest level of his career.
Thompson-Robinson leads the Pac 12 in both completion percentage (74.8) and passer efficiency (180.6). He has a 15:2 touchdown to pick ratio and has 231 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
​
Oregon has picked itself off the mat since its 49-3 loss to Georgia in the season opener. The Ducks have still allowed 20 points in every game against Div 1A opponents. They rank 82nd in scoring defense, 113th in passing yards allowed per game and 78th in yards allowed per play.
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I’ll put a quatloo on the Fighting Rodneys to win out right at very nice +190. 

LSU -1.5 vs Ole Miss – At irst, you take a look at the spread and wonder how can a 7th ranked and undefeated Mississippi be an underdog to a 5-2 LSU. Just take the money line for an easy win right.

Dig deeper and its all about the schedules. The Rebs have played a whole lot of nothing. Who is their best win – Kentucky?, Auburn? Both at home by the way.

LSU has the 7th strongest SOS with the losses to Florida State and Tennessee. The Rebel offense relies on a heavy rushing attack, and LSU has excelled in stopping the run all season.
​
Normally, I would take the ML on this game but I will fight my instincts and take LSU to cover. No quatloos though. ​

Rice @ La Tech over 57.0 - Rice comes into this game having gone 5-1 over so far this season. The Owls had gone over in nine straight games before going under in a loss to Florida Atlantic last week.

Louisiana Tech has a similar 5-1 over record so far this year. The Bulldogs have also gone over their last six conference games and over 14-3 in their last 17 home games.
​
In addition, the over has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams.

With Louisiana Tech being one of the worst defenses in the country, coupled with a prolific offense, I’ll take the over for a quatloo

Cal +7.5 vs Washington – The Sheriff will like this one. When Cal lost to Colorado last weekend, it marked the third time in the past five years that Cal lost to a team that started 0-5 or worse.

​How did they respond? 2018: won at Oregon State by 42, 2021: won at Stanford by 30.

Cal HC Justin Wilcox is an amazing 16-3 ATS as a home dog of 7+ points. I’ll take the Bears but no quatloos.
 
Rutgers -3.0 vs Indiana – Indiana is in a look ahead scenario with Penn State and Ohio State on deck. Rutgers is coming of a bye where Greg Schiano shines. He’s 10-3 ATS (76.9%) with more than 10 days between games against FBS opponents, covering by 11 points per game on average. That includes a road victory as a short favorite at Illinois last season.
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Meanwhile Indiana is a meager 27-42-3 ATS (39.1%) in road conference games since 2005. Only UConn, UNLV and Colorado have been worse. I’ll put a quatloo on Rutgers to cover. 

Hawaii +5.0 @ Colorado State -  The Rainbow offense has looked significantly better since they replace QB  Joey Yellen with Brayden Schager. Since the replacement Hawaii lost to San Diego State at the last second and beat Nevada.  

Colorado State’s offense sucks. They may have won last week’s 17-13 win over Utah State but they needed two defensive TDs to do it. Utah State was playing their 4th string QB.
​
I’ll put a quatloo on Hawaii to cover. 

Some other games I will be investing in:

Maryland -14.0 vs Northwestern -  Northwestern continues to be awful. Who gives up 322 passing yards and six touchdowns to Wisconsin? 

Not only is the Wildcat defense is among the worst in the country, the offense hasn’t scored more than 14 points in a game over the last month, and no one in the Big Ten turns it over more.

Washington vs Cal over 54.0 - The Huskies have scored over 40 points in four games already this season. In addition, they have allowed 28 or more points in four games this season.

The Cal offense will be able to move the ball though the air against a Washington secondary is suspect.
​
Washington has played to the over in every game this season and will rack up enough points to get the over. 

Purdue ML @ Wisconsin - Purdue’s run defense has been fantastic, allowing just 100 yards per game.

The Boilermakers are two plays away from being unbeaten. The passing attack has been terrific over the last two weeks, and the defense that has problems against the pass doesn’t have anything to worry about versus the Badgers.

I’ll put a quatloo on the money line at +105

And for all the games, spreads picks and much much more here is the 2022 Week 8 bettors guide

GO JUMBO is next weekend at the Westgate SuperBook!

Man oh man oh man. That was an exciting day of football!.
 
It didn’t start out that way. It started out with Nick pummeling me about the Michigan game. “Where is that 5th rank rush defense?” “Did I see 396 yards rushing and still counting” He was on a tear.
​
Now why is it that I hear from folks about the bad predictions but never the good ones? Goes with the territory, I guess.

But I had to admit that was impressive. By the time the game was over,  Corum and Edwards had combined for 339 rushing yards and four scores against Penn State, becoming the first teammates to rush for more than 150 rush yards in the same game since Alabama's Eddie Lacy and TJ Yeldon did it against Georgia in 2012.

Let’s just hope it all goes to their heads over the bye week….
​
And, at least, there was one good moment early on

My disappointment soon turned to joy. I ventured over to a local watering hole, met up with a local Spartan fan and watched two great games.

With Xavier Henderson back, the Spartan defense finally cut down on the busts. No wide open receivers prancing into the end zone. Wisconsin had to earn their points, made all that more difficult with State holding Wiscy to 4 out of 12 on third downs.

The offense fed of the defense and sharply reduced their mistakes. Thorne played with confidence, checking out of plays at the right time and not throwing bad picks.

​The special teams, well lets just say there is room for improvement. Lots of improvement

​​At first I thought it was a bad fake. Nope, with a chance to have a walk off FG, he has trouble with the snap. It’s been a chronic problem all year.
But then Thorne came through, as he had done all afternoon, with a clutch play to is favorite WR in double OT

That’s the same corner we used to have season tickets at. Good memories.

And while another classic Wisconsin MSU game headed into OT an even better game was unfolding  

Tennessee has been waiting for years to become relevant again on the College Football stage. Bama had dodged a bullet, not once, but twice this year, barely avoiding an upset to Texas in week 2 and then again, last week, to Texas A&M. Was this the year that the SEC pecking order would finally be turned upside down. Could the Vols finally beat Saban after 15 consecutive losses? 

The game started out like it would. The Vols quickly built a 28-10 lead. But Bama hung around waiting to pounce. Midway through the 4th quarter Bama tied the game at 42 all.  They kicked off to Tennessee and on 2nd down at the Vol 17 yard line this went down

Arrrrgh, not again. Not another Bama pulling a Lucy on the football world once again. 

But Tennessee wasn't about to play Charlie Brown. Not this time. This time it was Bama who would choke. As Tennessee marched down the field for a tying TD, Bama picks off a pass which would have clinched the game, only to be called for pass interference. With a governors pardon. Herdon Hooker hits Jalin Hyatt for the tying TD. It was Hyatt's sixth catch of the game, five of which were TDs. 

Again, the Tide looked like they would pull out the game. They marched down to the Vol 32, line up to kick a FG and... miss!

WIth only 15 seconds left, surely we are headed to OT. But Tennessee was not quite done. WIth 2 passes, they get to the Bama 23 and line up for a FG.

It was ugly

An ugly knuckleball. Phil Niekro would have been proud, Ugly but gooooood!

Bama now needs to be perfect to get to the playoffs. They are far from perfect. Not only are their continual miscues in the secondary and special team misses but, the Tide’s 15 penalties at Texas in Week 2 were as un-Alabama under Nick Saban as it gets. That is until  Saturday, when they were flagged 17 times, a school record.

Tennessee becomes the SEC team that gets in if they are the one loss team. The Nov 5th game against Georgia will be huge. 

And while the goal posts were going on a swim in the Tennessee River yet another game featuring two unbeaten teams was going down to the wire. 

Oklahoma State jumped to a 24-7 lead and was still up 14 points entering the 4th quarter. But TCU tied the game with under two minutes to go and then in double OT muscles it in on this play. 

Anthony, who was at the TCU win over Oklahoma two weeks ago was at this game too. He's still celebrating. 

And the great games were still not done. 

USC traveled to Salt Lake City for some football after dark, and play the defending Pac 12 champs. Utah is a tough out in their back yard. The Utes trailed all game until there was 48 second left. Then QB Cameron Risng took over

I still covered but it cost me what would have been a nice money line win. 

In the past under coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebs have relied on a high-octane passing game to make up for a so-so defense. This season, the script has flipped with Ole Miss with the defense giving up only 17 PPG while the offense relies on the run to move the ball. 

It's working. Ole Miss is 7-0, ranked 7th with a date on Nov 12th to likely decide the West's invite to the SEC championship game. Raise your hand if you had Tennessee vs Ole Miss playing in that game. If you have your hand up your are not fooling anyone you are just embarrassing yourself. 

Why is automatically assumed that a one loss SEC team is the favorite to get into the CFP. There are two conferences have four teams in the top 15 of the AP Poll: the SEC and the Pac-12 (#9 and undefeated UCLA, #10 Oregon, #12 USC, #15 Utah). The PAC 12 is easily the second best conference in college football. If it comes to comparing one-loss conference champions come selection time, that should matter. 

​Syracuse, which two years ago went 1-10, is off to its first 6-0 start since 1987 after beating No. 15 NC State 24-9. The Pack lost star QB for the season last week against Florida State. It showed. 

I was really hoping that a Sun Belt team would be considered for the CFP. But then conference play started and they began eating their own. App State beats Texas A&M but loses to James Madison. James Madison starts out 5-0, gets ranked in its first year of Div 1A ball and loses to Georgia State. Marshall beats Notre Dame then loses to Troy. Georgia Southern beats Nebraska, gets Scott Frost fired then loses to Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina goes to 6-0, looks to be James Madison's replacement in the rankings and loses to Old Dominion. Lots of really good teams in the Fun Belt. 

And finally, hats off to Colorado, With their win over Cal, every Div 1A team now has a win. 

Remember, the 2022 GO JUMBO is next weekend at the Westgate SuperBook