Just relax folks - Izzo's got this Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for (now 12 teams) no one else has a shot at the championship. One and done in bowls just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.
That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still playing!
And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else
That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still playing!
And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else
Best put Duke in your Final Four according to the KenPom ratings 2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to San Antonio. When picking your eventual National Champion, keep an eye on the KenPom rankings, KenPom rankings assess teams based on their offensive and defensive efficiency. Since the model was posted in 2002, 20 of the 22 national champions were ranked in the Top 20 for adjusted offensive and defensive metrics.
This year’s teams are Auburn (2 Offense 12 Defense), Duke (3 Off 4 Def), Florida (1 Off 10 def), Tennessee (18 Off 3 Def) Iowa State (20 Off 9 Def) and Houston (10 Off 2 Def). Michigan State just misses (5 Def but 27 Off). Also, just missing Maryland (28 Off 6 Def) and Wisconsin (13 Off 27 Def)
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. In 2023, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round. Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 154-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
4. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. Last year, the #2 seeds went 4-0 in the first round and 4-0 in the second round. But, in 2023 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round (State upsetting 2 seed Marquette!). Same thing happened in 2022 and 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. Perhaps the trend will return. Consider taking a 2 seed to lose this round and another in the second round.
This year’s teams are Auburn (2 Offense 12 Defense), Duke (3 Off 4 Def), Florida (1 Off 10 def), Tennessee (18 Off 3 Def) Iowa State (20 Off 9 Def) and Houston (10 Off 2 Def). Michigan State just misses (5 Def but 27 Off). Also, just missing Maryland (28 Off 6 Def) and Wisconsin (13 Off 27 Def)
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. In 2023, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round. Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 154-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
4. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. Last year, the #2 seeds went 4-0 in the first round and 4-0 in the second round. But, in 2023 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round (State upsetting 2 seed Marquette!). Same thing happened in 2022 and 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. Perhaps the trend will return. Consider taking a 2 seed to lose this round and another in the second round.
Sorry Michigan - no 5 seed has ever won it all 5. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over 3 seeds. Last year # 14 seed Oakland took down Kentucky. But, in the two previous years, the 3 seeds went 4-0 in the first round. Overall, #14 seeds are 23-133 (7%) in the first round. Kind of a long shot but fun when it happens. I’ll never forget when, in 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. Have fun. Consider putting a 14-3 upset to add a little spice in your bracket.
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Last year the 12’s went 2-2 against the 5s. In fact, 12 seeds win at a better than one third of the time (35%). A winning bracket is going to get a 12-5 upset correct. Go for it.
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (Michigan, Memphis, Oregon and Clemson this year)
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Last year the 12’s went 2-2 against the 5s. In fact, 12 seeds win at a better than one third of the time (35%). A winning bracket is going to get a 12-5 upset correct. Go for it.
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (Michigan, Memphis, Oregon and Clemson this year)
Bounce Kansas early 7. This is where I usually say don’t bet on Kansas. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year other than 2019, 2021 and 2024. But until 2022 when they won it all, they made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened in 2018. In 2019, they won one game and then got launched by a #5 seed. In 2021, they got bounced in the second round by 6 seed USC.
That said, in 2022 they won it all but reverted to form in 2023 as they didn’t make to the Sweet 16 as a 1 seed. Last year they were a four seed and got bounced in the 2nd round. This year, not much is expected from Kansas as they are a 7 seed. Bounce the Rock Chalk ChokeHawks
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last ten Tournaments, 26 of the 84 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround. Not always though. Last year, of the eight 1 and 2 seeds, all won their first two games.
9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. Last year it was 11 seed NC State making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 104 Final Four teams, 81 were top-four seeds. That still leaves room for one or two non top four seeds.
That said, in 2022 they won it all but reverted to form in 2023 as they didn’t make to the Sweet 16 as a 1 seed. Last year they were a four seed and got bounced in the 2nd round. This year, not much is expected from Kansas as they are a 7 seed. Bounce the Rock Chalk ChokeHawks
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last ten Tournaments, 26 of the 84 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround. Not always though. Last year, of the eight 1 and 2 seeds, all won their first two games.
9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. Last year it was 11 seed NC State making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 104 Final Four teams, 81 were top-four seeds. That still leaves room for one or two non top four seeds.
Advance at least 1 First Four Team - last year it was Colorado 10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). Putting in all 1 seeds your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 12.1. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 4 times over the last 23 years (2000, 2006, 2011 and 2023).
Intersting trivia - the one time all #1 seeds made the Final Four, 2008, the Final Four was held in San Antonio. This year’s Final Four venue? – San Antonio.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was Colorado advancing.
Intersting trivia - the one time all #1 seeds made the Final Four, 2008, the Final Four was held in San Antonio. This year’s Final Four venue? – San Antonio.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was Colorado advancing.
No team has won the national championship after getting bounced in their conference tourney - like A&M 13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 26 years, 12 national champions won their conference tournament including UConn last year. This years champs include Michigan (nope), St Johns, Memphis, Houston, Florida and Duke
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year be cautious about Texas A&M.
15. Along those same lines, since Arizona won it all in 1997, no team west of Texas has been crowned champs.
16. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the South – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. State won the Big Ten outright and is peaking at just the right time. Don’t worry about the loss in the Big Ten tourney. It actually could help State by not having to play on Sunday and getting a Friday first game.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year be cautious about Texas A&M.
15. Along those same lines, since Arizona won it all in 1997, no team west of Texas has been crowned champs.
16. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the South – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. State won the Big Ten outright and is peaking at just the right time. Don’t worry about the loss in the Big Ten tourney. It actually could help State by not having to play on Sunday and getting a Friday first game.
I'll take Kelvin Sampson and Houston in the West b. In the East – I’ll take Duke. Even with an injured Cooper Flagg, they dominated the ACC tournament.
c. In the West – I’ll take St Johns. Pitino just knows how to coach basketvall. He is the first and only head coach in men's basketball history to make the NCAA tournament with six different teams. His defense in number 1 in the KenPom ranking
d. In the Midwest – I’ll take Houston. Another legendary HC in Kelvin Sampson.
17. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 6. I know it’s low but I’m not ready to take a flyer on some of the lower seeds to advance that far.
18. For my First Four upset the winner of Xavier/Texas to take down Illinois. The Illini are too young and quirky. They have the talent to make the Final Four but the lights will be too bright.
c. In the West – I’ll take St Johns. Pitino just knows how to coach basketvall. He is the first and only head coach in men's basketball history to make the NCAA tournament with six different teams. His defense in number 1 in the KenPom ranking
d. In the Midwest – I’ll take Houston. Another legendary HC in Kelvin Sampson.
17. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 6. I know it’s low but I’m not ready to take a flyer on some of the lower seeds to advance that far.
18. For my First Four upset the winner of Xavier/Texas to take down Illinois. The Illini are too young and quirky. They have the talent to make the Final Four but the lights will be too bright.
Of course, I'm taking King Triton over the team from West Ypsilanti 19. For the 14 over 3 upset – I’ll take Troy over Kentucky. Just about every time the Sun Belt champ gets a No. 14 seed or better, it's a problem. James Madison was a 12-5 upset winner last year. UL Lafayette nearly beat Tennessee in 2023. Troy doesn't shoot well, but it generates a lot of steals. Kentucky is missing nearly all of its guards.
20. For my 13 over 4 upset - Repeat time. Yale was a 13-4 upset winner over Auburn last year. They do it again over Texas A&M. Yale's biggest bugaboo? Giving up triples. But Texas A&M's biggest bugaboo? Shooting. Both in three-point percentage and effective field-goal percentage, it ranks 317th in the nation. Yale has a better than plus-200 rebound margin for the year and can keep second and third chances to a relative minimum.
I'm also taking High Point over Purdue. High Point has won 14 in a row, the second-longest winning streak in college basketball. And the Boilers have a history of early exits.
21. I’ll take two 12s over 5s. First, UC San Diego over Michigan in the South. This is more than just my heart talking, Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is built to handle Michigan's Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin combo. That and UCSD's year-to-date turnover margin of plus-246 and Michigan's mark of minus-93 should decide the outcome.
I’ll add in McNeese State over Clemson . McNeese State has lost one game since Dec. 14, trailed only 20 seconds in the Southland tournament and early in the season played Alabama to eight points and Mississippi State to three..
22. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? I’ll take a resurging UConn to take down Florida. It was either that or Creighton over a fading Auburn but Big Al said Go Huskies.
Putting it all together – here is my 2025 March Madness Brackett
20. For my 13 over 4 upset - Repeat time. Yale was a 13-4 upset winner over Auburn last year. They do it again over Texas A&M. Yale's biggest bugaboo? Giving up triples. But Texas A&M's biggest bugaboo? Shooting. Both in three-point percentage and effective field-goal percentage, it ranks 317th in the nation. Yale has a better than plus-200 rebound margin for the year and can keep second and third chances to a relative minimum.
I'm also taking High Point over Purdue. High Point has won 14 in a row, the second-longest winning streak in college basketball. And the Boilers have a history of early exits.
21. I’ll take two 12s over 5s. First, UC San Diego over Michigan in the South. This is more than just my heart talking, Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is built to handle Michigan's Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin combo. That and UCSD's year-to-date turnover margin of plus-246 and Michigan's mark of minus-93 should decide the outcome.
I’ll add in McNeese State over Clemson . McNeese State has lost one game since Dec. 14, trailed only 20 seconds in the Southland tournament and early in the season played Alabama to eight points and Mississippi State to three..
22. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? I’ll take a resurging UConn to take down Florida. It was either that or Creighton over a fading Auburn but Big Al said Go Huskies.
Putting it all together – here is my 2025 March Madness Brackett
Lots of upsets early. That would be a fun tournament
