The Dolly Madison "preseason" portion of the season, full of cupcakes with a few interesting games sprinkled in, is over. Now the Big Boys start teeing off in conference games. And, man, were there a bunch of great games. From the fantastic heavy weight slugfest between Bama and Georgia that went the entire 15 rounds to the wild finish to between Miami (FL) and Va Tech, to the ending of Kentucky and Ole Miss and plenty of amazing plays across the fruited plain (unfortunately one by Ohio State - but it was a great catch). It was a great weekend for football!
Here's some of the fantastic plays from Week 5. College football at its best.
Here's some of the fantastic plays from Week 5. College football at its best.
And we are only through week 5. Lets hope week 6 is every bit as good.
Adding to the enjoyment was a profitable week of investing. I went 3-2 with a chance at 4-1 if UGA had held on. The Hold the Tables wagers are paying off too.
As far as some of the interesting investing angles from last week they went:
1. Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Results - #25 Kansas State covered as a 6.0 point favorite over Oklahoma State WIN; Notre Dame covered as a 6.5 point favorite over Louisville WIN; Penn State did not cover as 17.5 point favorite over Illinois LOSS; and in the best game of the year so far, Georgia did not cover as a 2 point favorite over Bama. 2-2 last week. Third straight week of this metric going 2-2. We will keep watching
After last week's great slate, there is only one Top 20 matchup. #25 Texas A&M hosts #9 Missouri as a 2.0 point favorite.
2. Since 2000, the Ducks are 15-3 SU and 11-6-1 ATS against the Bruins. Oregon won 34-13 but did not cover the 24.5 point spread LOSS
3. Teams that allowed 50+ points in their previous game when listed as the favorite actually see the defense step up in their next game, with the under going 48-24. Duke beat UNC 21-20 to go under 56.0 WIN
No teams qualify for this one this week
4. James Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS when he's favored by 10 points or more. Along with Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS. I’m staying away from this one. Illinois is hardly a cupcake. I was right to avoid this stat as Penn State won but did not cover vs Illinois 21-7
Penn State is a 28.0 favorite over UCLA. The Bruins are much closer to being a cupcake than the Illini. 28 points is a bit much for me though. I'll pass
5. Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020. New Mexico barely covered, beating NMSU 50-40 as 9.5 point favorites. LOSS Miami (OH) also qualifies as 18.0 favorites over UMass after losing to Notre Dame 28-3. Miami (OH) did not cover vs UMass WIN.
This week Wisconsin -14.0 vs Purdue is the lone qualifier. Betting on Purdue? I'll pass
3. Teams that allowed 50+ points in their previous game when listed as the favorite actually see the defense step up in their next game, with the under going 48-24. Duke beat UNC 21-20 to go under 56.0 WIN
No teams qualify for this one this week
4. James Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS when he's favored by 10 points or more. Along with Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS. I’m staying away from this one. Illinois is hardly a cupcake. I was right to avoid this stat as Penn State won but did not cover vs Illinois 21-7
Penn State is a 28.0 favorite over UCLA. The Bruins are much closer to being a cupcake than the Illini. 28 points is a bit much for me though. I'll pass
5. Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020. New Mexico barely covered, beating NMSU 50-40 as 9.5 point favorites. LOSS Miami (OH) also qualifies as 18.0 favorites over UMass after losing to Notre Dame 28-3. Miami (OH) did not cover vs UMass WIN.
This week Wisconsin -14.0 vs Purdue is the lone qualifier. Betting on Purdue? I'll pass
6. Since 2021,Oregon State is 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country. This week the Beavers host Colorado State as 12.0 favorites. I'll put some money down on the Beavers - see below
7. Boise State is 20-1 SU and 17-3-1 ATS vs. Utah State since 1998, winning and covering seven in a row dating back to 2017. The Broncos and their amazing RB Ashton Jeanty are 26.5 point home favorites over the Aggies.
8. Some others to look at this week: Wisconsin is 13-3-0 ATS vs Purdue; Clemson is 13-5-0 vs Florida State; and Georgia is 13-6-0 vs Auburn.
9. USC is 19-34-2 ATS (35.8%) in games played outside the pacific standard time zone, going 2-7 ATS since the start of 2021. This week they play at Minnesota as 8.5 point favorites
10. Going to take another look at the stat - when the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. I'll invest in this one. See the Rutgers Nebraska game below.
7. Boise State is 20-1 SU and 17-3-1 ATS vs. Utah State since 1998, winning and covering seven in a row dating back to 2017. The Broncos and their amazing RB Ashton Jeanty are 26.5 point home favorites over the Aggies.
8. Some others to look at this week: Wisconsin is 13-3-0 ATS vs Purdue; Clemson is 13-5-0 vs Florida State; and Georgia is 13-6-0 vs Auburn.
9. USC is 19-34-2 ATS (35.8%) in games played outside the pacific standard time zone, going 2-7 ATS since the start of 2021. This week they play at Minnesota as 8.5 point favorites
10. Going to take another look at the stat - when the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. I'll invest in this one. See the Rutgers Nebraska game below.
And to round out a football teams worth if investing statistical tidbits here's an 11th one I came across
11. Double-digit road favorites have generated nice profits in the revenge role, going 48-34 ATS (58.5%) since 2016.I love betting on revenge games. It's one of the reasons last years scores are part of the weekly Bettors Guide. This week's candidates are Sam Houston -10.5 @ UTEP; Texas State -14.0 @ Troy; Clemson -14.5 @ Florida State; Navy -10.0 @ Air Force and UL Lafayette -14.0 @ Southern Miss. I like a bunch of these.
Here's a touchdown's worth of best bets this weekend
1. Oregon State -12.0 vs Colorado State - Colorado State may be 2-2 but the two wins were against a really bad FBS team and even worse FCS team. When playing teams with a pulse they have been outscored 80-9. Oregon State has far more talent and is playing after a week's rest.
2. UL Lafayette -14.0 @ Southern Miss - I'll go with that revenge stat above. Southern Miss is another terrible team going 0-3 SU and ATS in Div 1A while getting outscored 124-31. The Ragin' Cajuns are 3-1 with a win over ACC Wake Forest. Revenge is best served spicy.
3. Navy -10.0 @ Air Force - Another revenge matchup and a rivalry game too. Navy scored more points against Memphis (56) that Air Force has all year (50). The Flyboys attack has been grounded this year while Navy is cruising. The Middies have yet to score under 41 points in a game.
4. Clemson -14.5 @ Florida State - Staying with the revenge angle here. Clemson QB Cade Klubnick would be the leader for ACC player of the year if Miami (FL) QB Cam Ward wasn't playing. FSU QB DJ Uiagalelei may not play. It could actually be an improvement.
5. Tulane -15.0 @ UAB - I love kicking bad teams when they are down. UAB is still horribly coached. Tulane held it's own against two ranked teams (#19 Oklahoma and #20 Kansas State) while blowing past everyone else. Wave bye bye Blazers
6. Iowa +20.0 @ Ohio State - With new OC Tim Lester, Iowa actually scores points now. In fact, averages 30 PPG versus Div 1A and 4-0 to the over. Ohio State could be in a bit of a look head situation with trip to Oregon up next week.
7. Rutgers @ Nebraska Under 40.0 - The weather forecasts has winds over 20 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH at game time. Both teams are going to load the box to stop the run and use the wind as an extra man in the secondary. And forget about long FGs. If teams get to mid field they are going to punt.
11. Double-digit road favorites have generated nice profits in the revenge role, going 48-34 ATS (58.5%) since 2016.I love betting on revenge games. It's one of the reasons last years scores are part of the weekly Bettors Guide. This week's candidates are Sam Houston -10.5 @ UTEP; Texas State -14.0 @ Troy; Clemson -14.5 @ Florida State; Navy -10.0 @ Air Force and UL Lafayette -14.0 @ Southern Miss. I like a bunch of these.
Here's a touchdown's worth of best bets this weekend
1. Oregon State -12.0 vs Colorado State - Colorado State may be 2-2 but the two wins were against a really bad FBS team and even worse FCS team. When playing teams with a pulse they have been outscored 80-9. Oregon State has far more talent and is playing after a week's rest.
2. UL Lafayette -14.0 @ Southern Miss - I'll go with that revenge stat above. Southern Miss is another terrible team going 0-3 SU and ATS in Div 1A while getting outscored 124-31. The Ragin' Cajuns are 3-1 with a win over ACC Wake Forest. Revenge is best served spicy.
3. Navy -10.0 @ Air Force - Another revenge matchup and a rivalry game too. Navy scored more points against Memphis (56) that Air Force has all year (50). The Flyboys attack has been grounded this year while Navy is cruising. The Middies have yet to score under 41 points in a game.
4. Clemson -14.5 @ Florida State - Staying with the revenge angle here. Clemson QB Cade Klubnick would be the leader for ACC player of the year if Miami (FL) QB Cam Ward wasn't playing. FSU QB DJ Uiagalelei may not play. It could actually be an improvement.
5. Tulane -15.0 @ UAB - I love kicking bad teams when they are down. UAB is still horribly coached. Tulane held it's own against two ranked teams (#19 Oklahoma and #20 Kansas State) while blowing past everyone else. Wave bye bye Blazers
6. Iowa +20.0 @ Ohio State - With new OC Tim Lester, Iowa actually scores points now. In fact, averages 30 PPG versus Div 1A and 4-0 to the over. Ohio State could be in a bit of a look head situation with trip to Oregon up next week.
7. Rutgers @ Nebraska Under 40.0 - The weather forecasts has winds over 20 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH at game time. Both teams are going to load the box to stop the run and use the wind as an extra man in the secondary. And forget about long FGs. If teams get to mid field they are going to punt.
For my Point Whore Parlay I'll go with:
1. Vanderbilt +22.0 vs Bama - Following a top-five upset win, favorites of more than three touchdowns have gone just 8-14 ATS (36.4%) since 2005, including 1-5 against the number in conference matchups.
2. Cal +10.5 vs Miami (FL) - Game Day is is Berkeley. Long road trip for the Canes. Bears defense is legit.
3. Minnesota +9.0 vs USC - USC struggles outside the PST. Lincoln Riley is 8-18-1 ATS as a road favorite. Gophers’ defense ranks Top 10 nationally in both opponents yards per game and opponents yards per play.
And for my Hold the Tables EPL wager I'll go with
Liverpool -190 @ Crystal Palace - going full Bruce here, no hedging for the tie.
And for all the games, times, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 6 Bettors Guide
1. Vanderbilt +22.0 vs Bama - Following a top-five upset win, favorites of more than three touchdowns have gone just 8-14 ATS (36.4%) since 2005, including 1-5 against the number in conference matchups.
2. Cal +10.5 vs Miami (FL) - Game Day is is Berkeley. Long road trip for the Canes. Bears defense is legit.
3. Minnesota +9.0 vs USC - USC struggles outside the PST. Lincoln Riley is 8-18-1 ATS as a road favorite. Gophers’ defense ranks Top 10 nationally in both opponents yards per game and opponents yards per play.
And for my Hold the Tables EPL wager I'll go with
Liverpool -190 @ Crystal Palace - going full Bruce here, no hedging for the tie.
And for all the games, times, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 6 Bettors Guide
2024_week_6.xlsx |
Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
And don't forget your drink coupons!
And don't forget your drink coupons!