It's going to be a great weekend for college football with plenty of huge matchups including Ohio State with Chip Kelly as OC returning to Eugene in a game that could decide the Big Ten. It will be the 120th version of the Red River Shootout but the first time as an SEC game. And #9 Ole Miss travels to Baton Rouge to play #13 LSU. Playing in Death Valley at night is never easy.
I plan to go to my local watering hole, grab a spot at the bar, pound some IPAs and just enjoy.
Looking at our betting strategies from last week:
Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Results – Texas A&M easily covered vs Mizzou 41-10 WIN
I plan to go to my local watering hole, grab a spot at the bar, pound some IPAs and just enjoy.
Looking at our betting strategies from last week:
Taking the favorites is a good strategy. Since 2020, in games where both teams are ranked, the favorite is 57% ATS. Results – Texas A&M easily covered vs Mizzou 41-10 WIN
This week we have:
#2 Ohio State -4.5 @ Oregon; #9 Ole Miss -2.5 @ LSU and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma I’m actually leaning towards going against the strategy this week and take the home teams in Oregon and LSU while taking Texas too.
James Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS when he's favored by 10 points or more. Along with Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS. I’m staying away from this one. UCLA is more of a cupcake than Illinois but I will pass. I was right to avoid this stat again as Penn State won but did not cover the 4 TD spread vs the Bruins 27-11
Since 2021,Oregon State is 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country. Result - the Beavers needed OT to beat the Rams 39-31 LOSS
#2 Ohio State -4.5 @ Oregon; #9 Ole Miss -2.5 @ LSU and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma I’m actually leaning towards going against the strategy this week and take the home teams in Oregon and LSU while taking Texas too.
James Franklin is 43-24-2 ATS when he's favored by 10 points or more. Along with Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top-20 matchups are 31-21 ATS. I’m staying away from this one. UCLA is more of a cupcake than Illinois but I will pass. I was right to avoid this stat again as Penn State won but did not cover the 4 TD spread vs the Bruins 27-11
Since 2021,Oregon State is 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in lined home games — the best mark in the country. Result - the Beavers needed OT to beat the Rams 39-31 LOSS
Boise State is 20-1 SU and 17-3-1 ATS vs. Utah State since 1998, winning and covering seven in a row dating back to 2017. The Broncos have also won 11 consecutive home games SU vs the Aggies. Result – Boise torched USU - 62-30 WIN
Some others to look at: Wisconsin is 13-3-0 ATS vs Purdue ; Clemson is 13-5-0 vs Florida State; and Georgia is 13-6-0 vs Auburn. Results – Wiscy covered 52-6 WIN; Clemson covered 29-13 WIN; UGA did not cover 31-13 LOSS. The Bettors guide contains how the teams compare vs the spread going back to 2015. Handy information
This week’s candidates – Texas is 12-6-1 vs Oklahoma and Florida is 13-5-1 versus Tennessee. Mixed messages with Florida, given its a revenge game for Tennessee - see below.
The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap. This weeks’ revenge games are – Tennessee -15.0 vs Florida; UL Monroe -6.5 vs Southern Miss; Texas State -14.5 vs Arkansas State; Maryland -10.0 vs Northwestern and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma.
Some others to look at: Wisconsin is 13-3-0 ATS vs Purdue ; Clemson is 13-5-0 vs Florida State; and Georgia is 13-6-0 vs Auburn. Results – Wiscy covered 52-6 WIN; Clemson covered 29-13 WIN; UGA did not cover 31-13 LOSS. The Bettors guide contains how the teams compare vs the spread going back to 2015. Handy information
This week’s candidates – Texas is 12-6-1 vs Oklahoma and Florida is 13-5-1 versus Tennessee. Mixed messages with Florida, given its a revenge game for Tennessee - see below.
The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap. This weeks’ revenge games are – Tennessee -15.0 vs Florida; UL Monroe -6.5 vs Southern Miss; Texas State -14.5 vs Arkansas State; Maryland -10.0 vs Northwestern and Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma.
USC is 19-34-2 ATS (35.8%) in games played outside the PST zone, going 2-7 ATS since the start of 2021. USC lost outright even though favored 24-17 WIN
When the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. Nebraska beat Rutgers 14-7 to go way under 40.0 WIN
This week’s candidates - Boise State @ Hawaii; North Texas @ Florida Atlantic and San Diego State @ Wyoming
Going back to this stat Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020
This week’s candidates Maryland -10 vs Northwestern; Illinois -19.5 vs Purdue and Missouri -27.5 @ UMass
When the wind is 13 MPH or greater, unders cash in at a 57% rate. Nebraska beat Rutgers 14-7 to go way under 40.0 WIN
This week’s candidates - Boise State @ Hawaii; North Texas @ Florida Atlantic and San Diego State @ Wyoming
Going back to this stat Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites the next week, win at an 84% clip SU, but are just 45% ATS since 2020
This week’s candidates Maryland -10 vs Northwestern; Illinois -19.5 vs Purdue and Missouri -27.5 @ UMass
The biggest game of the weekend is #2 Ohio State traveling to Eugene to play #3 Oregon. The Bucknuts have floundered in these situations. Since 2018, in Top 10 matchups, they are 6-13-1 ATS, covering just 2 of their last nine games in the spot. In top 5 matchups, Ohio State has lost three in a row SU and 4 of its last five overall. Do I hear choking against scUM in that stat?
Penn State loves the road too. The Nits are 14-4 ATS on the road dating back to 2020.
More bad news for Bama fans. Top-10 teams off a road loss as a 14+ pt favorites are 9-17 ATS the following game. They also go under at a 17-6-1 clip, This week Bama returns home as a 21.0 favorite over South Carolina.
Another winning week as I went 4-3 plus the Point Whore Parlay cashed in and the Hold the Tables wager stayed perfect on the season.
Penn State loves the road too. The Nits are 14-4 ATS on the road dating back to 2020.
More bad news for Bama fans. Top-10 teams off a road loss as a 14+ pt favorites are 9-17 ATS the following game. They also go under at a 17-6-1 clip, This week Bama returns home as a 21.0 favorite over South Carolina.
Another winning week as I went 4-3 plus the Point Whore Parlay cashed in and the Hold the Tables wager stayed perfect on the season.
Here’s another TD worth of picks for Week 7
Illinois -19.0 vs Purdue – Leaning heavily on the revenge angle here. Also I like wagering against bad teams on the road. Purdue is bad.
Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma – Not only a revenge game but Texas has owned Oklahoma ATS. Also relying on - Since 2016, favorites of 14+ points in top 20 matchups are 31-22 ATS.
Penn State -5.0 @ USC - USC struggled against Minnesota's defense. Penn State's is better. Over the last decade, USC is 5-25 SU and 10-20 ATS as an underdog. And Penn State is 14-4 ATS on the road.
Colorado State +1.5 vs San Jose State – CSU is healthy again and nearly took down Oregon State. San Jose State has squeezed by playing a joke of a schedule (136th) Colorado State HC Jay Norvell is 22-9 ATS (71%) as an underdog in Mountain West play
Ohio State @ Oregon Under 53.0 – Two elite defense with offenses that play at a slow pace (86th and 79th respectively). Duck QB Dillon Gabriel struggles under pressure. Bucknuts lead the nation in sack percentage.
Iowa -2.5 vs Washington – Huge let down spot for the Huskies after getting CFP revenge over scUM last week. Iowa has a tremendous advantage in special teams and commits far fewer penalties.
Big Ten are 1-8 this season when traveling two or more time zones in conference play. Iowa is 25-12-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite over last 11 years.
LSU +3.5 vs Ole Miss - Rebels rank just 81st in opponent completion percentage (62.5%). LSU is the best passing attack the Rebs have faced by a Cajun mile. Tigers are coming off a bye and should be healthy while Ole Miss will be down star WR Tre Harris.
Brian Kelly is 27-13-1 (67.5%) when catching at least a field goal. He's also 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) following a bye week.
Iowa -2.5 vs Washington – Huge let down spot for the Huskies after getting CFP revenge over scUM last week. Iowa has a tremendous advantage in special teams and commits far fewer penalties.
Big Ten are 1-8 this season when traveling two or more time zones in conference play. Iowa is 25-12-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite over last 11 years.
LSU +3.5 vs Ole Miss - Rebels rank just 81st in opponent completion percentage (62.5%). LSU is the best passing attack the Rebs have faced by a Cajun mile. Tigers are coming off a bye and should be healthy while Ole Miss will be down star WR Tre Harris.
Brian Kelly is 27-13-1 (67.5%) when catching at least a field goal. He's also 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) following a bye week.
For this weeks Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with:
Hawaii +21.0 vs Boise State – Look ahead game for BSU with UNLV up next. Hawaii is 4-0 ATS as home dog in MWC play.
South Carolina +21.0 @ Alabama – Relying on the Top 10 road loss stat above. That, and South Carolina has enough defense to keep this one close.
Mississippi State +34.0 @ Georgia – Look ahead situation for the Dawgs too. with Texas up next. UGA will rely on the ground game against a poor MSU run defense shortening the game. Once UGA gets the big lead they will rest the starters.
And for the Hold the Tables EPL pick I’ll go with:
Arsenal -155 @ Bournemouth hedged with a tie at +295
And for al the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 7 Bettors Guide
For this weeks Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with:
Hawaii +21.0 vs Boise State – Look ahead game for BSU with UNLV up next. Hawaii is 4-0 ATS as home dog in MWC play.
South Carolina +21.0 @ Alabama – Relying on the Top 10 road loss stat above. That, and South Carolina has enough defense to keep this one close.
Mississippi State +34.0 @ Georgia – Look ahead situation for the Dawgs too. with Texas up next. UGA will rely on the ground game against a poor MSU run defense shortening the game. Once UGA gets the big lead they will rest the starters.
And for the Hold the Tables EPL pick I’ll go with:
Arsenal -155 @ Bournemouth hedged with a tie at +295
And for al the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2024 Week 7 Bettors Guide
2024_week_7.xlsx |
Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook