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2026 Week 1 Recap

9/9/2026

The Big Ten being in the pocket of Ohio State and Michigan was exposed for the whole country to see. It was a loss Wolvies. The Big Book of Guesses will record it as such.

Michigan won’t be able to pull off these antics against Oklahoma and will struggle to make a bowl as long as Wonder Child Bryce Underwood is the starting QB.

One person made a killing on the disputed play. A Fanatics Sportsbook customer made a huge in-game bet in the waning seconds.. The bettor put $10,000 on Michigan +2800 moneyline.- a $280,000 profit. Perhaps we found the Big Ten timekeeper.

Three teams lost to Div 1A teams. Bowling Green lost to Tarleton State 20-13, UNC Charlotte lost to Citadel 43-41 and Utah State lost to Idaho State 29-17. You can just start fading these teams now.

Rutgers lost to what in essence has been a mediocre FCS team – UMass. Looks like the Schiano’s second go around with the Scarlet Knights will be nowhere near as good as the first time. Rutgers plays Boston College this week. The loser is officially the worst P4 team and maybe the worst FBS team as well.

Another team that will struggle - West Virginia. The 'Neers led 24-0 but let Coastal Carolina claw it back to 41-24 with 27 seconds left. Coastal's onside kick failed giving WVU the win.

The Lane Train put another nail in Dabo's career

The game may have been delayed but LSU march to the playoffs was not. LSU smoked Clemson 51-10. The Lane Train’s up tempo offense put up 644 yards of offense.

It was the worst loss for Clemson under Dabo. He’s cooked. It’s just a matter of - will the leadership allows him to finish out the season. I have my doubts.

Wisconsin held their own against Notre Dame for a half but were blown out in the second half, losing 41-13. Luke Fickell may not survive the season either.

SMU turned it over 4 times, missed a chip shot FG and yet still beat Florida State. I have no doubt about Mike Norvell - he won’t finish out the season.

North Texas actually outgained Indiana

Is Bob Chesney the next Cignetti? He replaced him at James Madison before moving to UCLA this year. Chesney looks to have instilled a sense of how to win. Cal erased a 14 point lead only to have the Bruins score 21 unanswered in the 4th quarter to win 45-24.

Indiana may have dominated North Texas on the scoreboard but the defense will need some tightening up if they want to make noise in the playoffs. The Mean Green outgained the Hoosiers (367-365) and dominated the time of possession (37:22 – 22:38).

Defenses ruled in Washington's 24-10 win over Washington State. The Huskies kept the Cougars scoreless into the fourth quarter. Wazzou meanwhile let up only one TD through 3 quarters. That TD was after a pick by UW that had them start at WSU's 21 yard line.

New Mexico's defense dominated the Chips

Iowa's defense looks like it will have another great year. It took until 4:14 left in the 3rd quarter for the Huskies to get their first, first down. And it was on a PI penalty. NIU had a total of 120 yards of offense and a pitiful 7 yards rushing.

It took awhile for new HC Jim Mora to get Colorado State going. His Rams led just 14-13 at the end of 3. But CSU scored 21 unanswered in the 4th quarter to blow out Wyoming 35-13. Wyoming HC Jay Sawvel's hot seat will go nuclear if he loses to a Northern Colorado this week.

New Mexico looks to be in the running for the G6 seat at the CFP table after crushing central Michigan 38-7. The Lobos defense held CMU to under 150 total yards and forced 2 turnovers.

Former Spartan QBs went 3-0 last week. Katin Houser led Illinois to a 42-23 win over UAB. Sam Leavitt was LSU's QB in the win over Clemson and Noah Kim led Eastern Michigan to a 28-17 win over Sacramento State. Kim plays plays against State this Saturday.

For Week 1 I went 3-2. The hook was my friend in SMU's last second win over Florida State. I should have stayed away from Oklahoma State in my parlay. Tulsa might actually be good.

The Sheriff went 1-2. I warned you about UNLV.

Remember the 2026 Go Jumbo is Nov 14 at the Westgate SuperBook

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2026 Week 1 Addendum

9/5/2026

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Kevin Jennings returns for his 3rd year as a starter for SMU

The Sheriff has returned from a multi year deep undercover mission with some picks this week

As always, these picks are based on pure emotion with no basis in logic or reason. Buyer beware.

Stanford (+24) vs Miami.   Stanford looked good against Hawaii last week with a nice feature back named Micah Ford and a new transfer QB Davis Warren. It’s a new day on the Farm with a new coach Tavita Pritchard. The Canes will win but gimme the Cardinal to cover.

Hawaii (+3) vs UNLV.   Always take the Rainbow Warriors when they are playing at home. They will bounce back from their loss to Stanford. (I lena the other way. UNLV is better than they looked against Memphis)

UCLA (-2) @ CAL.   Normally I prefer home dogs week 1 because no one knows anything yet but I like this new guy Bob Chesney and think he will have UCLA ready for the Golden Bears on Saturday night.

I am also going to add one more pick to this weeks' slate.

SMU -2.5 @ Florida State - The Noles looked terrible against New Mexico State last week. they were committing penalties, missing tackles and blowing coverages all night. I don't see much improvement this week

SMU QB Kevin Jennings starts for his third straight year for the Mustangs. His last two seasons saw him hit for 49 TDs vs only 24 picks. He'll be playing behind one of the most experienced OLs in college ball.

Mike Norvell's hot seat turns up a few more notches

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2026 Week 1 - Let's get this season started!

9/2/2026

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Fitz will enter Spartan Stadium as the MSU head coach this time

I missed making picks for Week 0 last week. I was too busy getting a new TV for the Doofus Deck, assembling the TV stand and getting ready to have my Spartan buddy Gary come over.

Good times were had by all as we watched some upsets (is North Carolina good now or is TCU a train wreck), some games that should not have been close but were (New Mexico State would have been down 17-14 at the half if not for an easy dropped pass in the end zone) and exciting late night games (Memphis looks like the team I projected to over for the 2026 win total)

This week I’ll be in the ATL for the Georgia Tech game on Thursday. Friday I’ll be at a 404 Spartan Bar for Fitz’s opening game in the Green and White.

The weekend continues with watching plenty of football with the Doofus kids on Saturday and Sunday.

Not only will I be rooting for the Jackets and Spartans but I’ll have a rooting interest in this week's best games against the spread. Lots of games to pick from but here are my favorites.

Del Rio-Wilson can run the ball too

Marshall +23.5 @ Penn State – I like taking big underdogs in the first couple of weeks. Most teams are playing off last years reputation and as player turnover due to NIL money and unfettered portal transfers, year to year stability is at an all time low.

Penn State finally got Matt Campbell to leave Iowa State but his ATS record outside the Big 12 was a meager 16-18-1.

Marshall returns one of the passers G6 QBs in Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. He’s working with the same play caller OC Rod Smith for the second straight season.

Del Rio-Wilson also ran for over 650 yards in just nine full games last year. An effective run game helps shorten the games and makes covering big spreads easier. It helps that Penn State lost 12 DL to the portal and the draft.

Sam Leavitt will have no problem picking up Lanes offense

LSU -10.5 vs Clemson – Good ‘ol Lane. There’s plenty of drama when he is involved. Whether it’s the hiring by LSU just as Ole Miss is about to enter the CFP or trying to get NFL players on his roster, it’s always a circus when he’s around. But he does get results.

Meanwhile, Dabo is on a multi-year down swing. He refuses to adapt to the portal ear and his HS recruiting continues to degrade along with his win totals. Look no further than Dabo hiring his old OC from Chad Morris. Morris was last with Clemson in 2013. The last time Morris was calling plays was in 2020 with Gus Malzahn at Auburn. The Tigers finished 90th in offense and Gus was fired. Dabo is stuck in the past.

Say what you will about Lane, but his RPO offenses are dynamic, Leading the charge this year is former Arizona State (and Spartan) QB Sam Leavitt. He ran the RPO on 42% of his plays last year so should adapt quickly.

LSU with less talent and on the road last year won 17-10 over Clemson. In Death Valley the winning margin will be much bigger.

Brad Jackson will attempt to keep up with Manning

Texas vs Texas State over 60.0 – Most fans will assume this will be a boring, big team handing the little team a paycheck. But in reality is that this may be the quarterback matchup of Week 1.

Arch Manning has been in the spotlight since high school and enters his redshirt junior season as a Heisman co-favorite. He closed the 2025 season on an tear, posting an average QBR of 94.5 (out of 100) in his final three games.

Believe it or not but Texas State’s Brad Jackson has even better stats than Manning. The sophomore dual-threat QB completed over 70% of his passes last fall while running it in for 17 scores. In his final five games, the first-year starter accounted for 19 total touchdowns, completing 77% of his pass attempts while consistently burning opponents with his legs.

When taking overs you have to account for how fast teams play. Texas State finished 21st in seconds between plays last fall while scoring 36.5 points per game (12th).

Head coach G.J. Kinne isn’t afraid of Power 4 competition. He got his Texas State debut off to a roaring start by upsetting Baylor on the road in 2023 and then his Bobs nearly upset Arizona State in 2024. Neither Kinne nor his team will be intimidated here

I’ll take Jackson and his solid receiving corps to put up at least two touchdowns and send this game over the total.

Just to have a rooting interest without having to worry about the spread I'll do a 4 team money line parlay that pays -148

Houston ML vs Oregon State - Fritz and his Cougars struggled with OSU last year. This year they should win easily at home.
Oklahoma State ML vs Tulsa - The Pokes under new HC Eric Morris get revenge for last years loss to Tulsa
Memphis ML vs Arkansas State - Memphis continues to roll over the outmanned Red Wolves
Troy ML vs Sam Houston - One of the better teams in the Sun Belt at home versus one of the worst in the CUSA. Should be an easy win for the Trojans

And for all the games, times, spreads and picks here is the 2026 Week 1 Bettors Guide

2026_week_1.xlsx
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2026 Win Totals

8/20/2026

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One week to go to football kicks off. Before we get into picking individual games, I always like take some flyers on season wins for various teams. That way you can root for (or against) a team all season long. To start - here is the 2026 over/under win totals for all Div 1A teams by conference.

Charles Huff took his talents and roster from Southern Miss to Memphis

Using the Big Al rule, I'll leave UConn alone and I hope State surprises to the upside. But I never bet on State - don't want to jinx them.

This year I'm going to make one pick per conference starting with:

American Conference - Memphis Over 7.5 Wins

I'm betting on Charles Huff to continue his magic. There isn't a better Group of 6 coach at using the transfer portal to raise a team's floor than Charles Huff.

Two years ago, he won the Sun Belt title at. When the program opted to go in another direction, he said "watch this" and took all of the Thundering Herd's best players with him to Southern Miss. He promptly took program that had gone 4-20 in the two seasons and won seven game. Now he is taking all of USM best players to Memphis, a much better resourced program. .

Since 2014, Memphis has won 8-plus regular-season games 10 times under three different head coaches. I'm betting that Huff is even better then those former HCs.

The non-conference schedule features two premier G6 teams (Boise State and UNLV), Memphis should be favored in at least eight of its other games.

BC's best player, Turbo Richard is now a Hoosier

ACC - Boston College Under 3.5 Wins

Boston College went 2-10 last year and there is little reason to believe there will be much improvement this year. The lost there best player RB Turbo Richard to Indiana and starting QB Dylan Lonergan to Rutgers.

The Eagles will be favored in only one game this year (Div 1AA Maine) in what will likely be HC Bill O'Brien's last year in Chestnut Hill.

Big Ten - Purdue Under 3.5 Wins

There's a reason CHris roots for the BuckNuts and not his alma mater Purdue. IT's because the Boilers are bad at football. Since 2013, Purdon't has won four or more games just six times, and five of those were under Jeff Brohm. Over the last 2 years they had only three wins, two over Div 1AA teams and Ball State from the MAC. And the games are not even close, losing by an average of 36-17.

The offense was 10-2nd last year and just lost their best WR Nitro Tuggle, (love these transfer portal names) to South Carolina.

Purdue will be favored in only one game this year, Div 1AA Indiana State.

Conner Weigman was the only P4 QB to throw 25+ TDs and run for double-digit scores.

Big 12 - Houston Over 8.5 wins

All Willie Fritz does is build programs and win. He did it at the JUCO level, in Division II, in the FCS, in the Group of 6, and now he's doing it in the Power 4 at Houston He inherited a 4-8 team, and by Year 2 last season, Fritz won nine regular-season games with the Cougars and a bowl win over LSU.

He returns virtually all his offense including star QB Conner Weigman, Last year he threw for over 2,700 yards with 25 TDs (vs just 9 picks). He also ran for 700 yards and 11 touchdowns.

The schedule is very favorable ranking 134th in SOS with only two ranked teams (at Texas Tech and at Utah) on the slate.

New Mexico's State best player, Ezra Christensen is now with Prime

CUSA - New Mexico State Under 4.5 Wins

To paraphrase Brad Pitt in Moneyball - there are rich teams, and there are poor teams. Then there's 50 feet of crap. And then there's New Mexico State. The Aggies are one of the worst teams in all of Div !A. Since 1979 (back when Magic was winning a Natty), NMSU has won at least five games just nine times. Two of those seasons were under Jerry Kill back in 2022 and 2023. That's next level bad.

Current HC Tony Sanchez Sanchez has won four or more games only once in eight seasons (5-7 UNLV team in 2017). There's no reason to believe anything will change for the Aggies this season. NMSU has one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the CUSA (@Florida State, @Hawaii, vs New Mexico) and added very little in terms of reinforcements, with a transfer portal class ranked 116th nationally.

Their QB will be a turnover prone transfer from Furman, Trey Heddein. And they lost their best defensive player DT Ezra Christensen to Colorado. THe Aggies will get by Mercyhurst and then might steal a couple road wins in the CUSA but that is about it.

Alonzo Carter and his Hornets are going to get plenty of frequent miles this year.

MAC - Sacramento State Under 4.5 wins

I would love to negotiate against Sacramento State's AD Mark Orr. He was so desperate to get into Div 1A that he agreed to join a conference where the closest team is 2,200 miles away, pay an $18 million entry fee, forego standard revenue distributions, and cover the air travel costs for visiting MAC opponents. Oh, and they are ineligible to play in the Conference Championship game for two years.

Not that that is on the horizon. First-year head coach, that dancing machine, Alonzo Carter takes over a team that's No. 131 in returning production and is set to start over a dozen transfers — including four on the offensive line.

Not only is there no continuity on this team, but its schedule is also a nightmare. The Hornets play three of the best G6 teams in non-conference games (@ Fresno State, vs North Dakota State and @ Hawaii) and have to travel across the country for four of their conference games.

The Hornets will get two likely wins over UMass and Div 1AA Miss Valley State and could steal one against Ball State but that should be about it.

Jaxton Eck is on the Butkus Award Watch list

Mountain West - New Mexico Over 8.5 wins

New Mexico used to be nearly as bad as New Mexico State. The Lobos had just six seasons with nine or more wins in their 94 years of college football. Then HC Jason Eck did it on his first try going 9-3 in the regular season. It was UNM's first winning campaign since 2016 and just the second since 2007.

New Mexico ranks No. 21 nationally in returning production (63%) and brings back one of the G6's top defensive players: Jason's son, LB Jaxton Eck. He anchored the Mountain West's top rated rush defense.

On offense, It’s rare that a Group of Six conference team keeps most of its good linemen, but the Lobos did. With C Kaden Robnett is among the best in the Mountain West, along with veteran tackles Tyler Lawrence and Malik Aliane.

The schedule should be easier than last year with many of the better MWC teams off to the Pac 12. Oklahoma is the only certain loss. The rest of the schedule is winnable.

Sire Gaines teams with Dylan Riley to form one of the best RB backfields in the country

PAC 12 - Boise State Over 8.5 Wins

It may have been a down year by its own standards, but Boise State won the Mountain West title on its way out the door last season. HC Spencer Danielson has won a conference title in each campaign he's led the Broncos, including with the interim tag in 2023. So anything less a championship in the newly reconstituted Pac-12 would seem like a failure.

Boise returns most of its starters including QB Maddux Madsen, whose 26 starts make him one of the nation's most experienced signal-callers. Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines combined for over 2,100 yards from scrimmage in 2025, giving Boise State arguably the best running back duo in the G6

The Broncos beat many of the same teams last year when the were in the MWC and should be favored again. The only truly tough game will be its opener at Oregon. Week 2 vs Memphis should be a good one but the rest are all winnable.

In the last 27 years, Boise State has won 9-plus regular-season games 20 times under six different head coaches. It's the definition of a well-oiled machine.

Memphis fans were actually relieved when Silverfield left for Arkansas

SEC - Arkansas Under 3.5 wins

After firing Sam Pittman last year, Arkansas made perhaps the least celebrated Power 4 hire in Ryan Silverfield. The Razorbacks were dynamic on offense ranking 13th overall last year but QB Taylen Green is now playing with the Cleveland Browns.

The defense was he downfall for Arkansas last year playing like they had nine men and a cheerleader on the field. It was bad against the pass, worse against the run, allowing fewer than 300 yards in the two wins over Arkansas State and Alabama A&M, and more in the ten losses against everyone else.

Arkansas allowed 31 points or more nine times last season and is 1-17 over the last three years when allowing that many or more. By the way, Memphis gave up 31 or more in five of the last seven games last season so help is probably not on the way.

Sun Belt - South Alabama Under 5.5 Wins

South Alabama is another of those miserable football programs. It failed to come up with a winning season in the first ten seasons after joining the big-time college football world in 2012, and then Kane Wommack cranked up three straight great campaigns before leaving.. Major Applewhite kept it going for one season largely due to Wommack then it what is more likely a peek at Applewhite's coaching talents, the Jaguars went 4-8.

The Jaguars are in for an ugly year. They rank 105th in returning production (44%), and Applewhite didn't bring in much of a transfer portal class to offset that... South Alabama has the 135th-ranked portal class.

The defense was terrible at getting to the QB. Only three teams came up with fewer sacks per game. This is where the portal would normally help, but the line took a hit losing players the other way. The secondary was gutted as well. Nehemiah Chandler came up with a Sun Belt-high 13 broken up passes, and now he’s at Florida State. Safety Ty Goodwill made 32 tackles with seven broken up passes, and now he’s at Cincinnati. Safety Wesley Miller made 59 stops, and he’s off to FIU.

The schedule is just too daunting for a below average program like USA. They have three difficult non-conference games (Tulane, Ohio and Kentucky) and games against Marshall, Louisiana, and Troy.

Four wins is about the max for USA and Applewhite this year.

Remember the 2026 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 14 at the Westgate SuperBook

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2026 College Football - Time to do your prep work

8/7/2026

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Gun Violence is strictly prohibited

My favorite time of the year - football season - is only two weeks away!! Which means its time to start doing your prep work. Your favorite players are in camp getting ready for the season. You can your part by 1) learning the new rules 2) Welcome new teams to Div 1A and Conference Realignments and 3) getting to know the new head football coaches. Lots to cover so lets start with the new rules for this year.

There are several changes to the rules this year starting with a modified targeting rule. Before, if you caught targeting you were suspended for the rest of the game and the first half if the next game. This year it’s been modified such that

First Offense: Eliminates the automatic next-game or second-half carryover suspension. The player is ejected for the current game, but is eligible to play in the next game.
Second Offense: Results in ejection for the remainder of the game plus a first-half suspension for the team's next game.
Third Offense: Results in ejection for the game and a full one-game suspension for the next game.
Appeals: Conferences can initiate an appeal process for a player's second targeting penalty via video review with the national coordinator of officials.

Other changes include

Offensive Pass Interference is now a 10 yard penalty down from 15 yards last year.
A weird new Fair Catch Kick has been introduced, allowing a team a free-kick field goal attempt (worth 3 points) after a fair catch on a punt or free kick. I wonder how many times it will be attempted.
Play Clock After Replay: Following a replay review after the two-minute timeout, the play clock is not reset to 25 seconds rather it will set to whatever times was left on the play clock. If it was under 10 seconds, however, it will be set to 10 seconds. This effectively stops the leading team from getting a free 25 seconds clock reset and burning extra time during a booth review.
The list of automatic unsportsmanlike conduct fouls will be minimized and will be consistently penalized including::
- Any form of gun violence including brandishing a weapon.
- A slashing of the throat or a nose wipe signal.
- A player removing their helmet after the ball is dead (with exceptions for timeouts and equipment adjustments).
- Dead-ball contact fouls such as pushing, shoving, striking, etc. that occur clearly after the ball is dead and that are not part of the game action.
- After the ball is dead, using forcible contact to push or pull an opponent off the pile.

Special Teams coaches are still trying to figure out this new rule regarding punt formations. If a team uses a numbering exception meaning that they have fewer than five linemen numbered 50-79 then they must follow a strict 2X2 formation rules

The snapper and two adjacent linemen on either side of the snapper, not numbered 50-79 who are lined up in (or touching) the tackle box are ineligible receivers by position.
Any and all such numbering-exception players must be clearly on the line of scrimmage, and all backs must be clearly in the backfield.
To get around the numbering rules, coaches can cycle players through the standard 50-79 jersey numbers.
Chaos is sure to ensue from opposing coaches to announcers to NFL scouts trying to figure out who is really on the field.

Michigan State Special Teams coach Levar Woods is not a fan.

After watching the interview I am a big fan of Woods though.

New Teams and Conference Realignments

The FBS welcomes two new teams this year. North Dakota State and Sacramento State. NDSU has been an absolute dynasty in the FCS. The Bison won 10, counts them, 10 FCS championships since 2011, including five-peating from 2011-15 and three-peating from 2017-19.

Sacramento State becomes the first west coast FCS program to jump to 1A football. The Hornets are a middling program. After going 12-1 in 2022, Sac State has gone 18-19 since then.

The Conference Realignments start with the

The PAC 12 reboots by savaging the Mountain West, grabbing up any team with State in their name. Coming over from the MWC are a) Boise State, b) Colorado State, c) d) Fresno State, e) San Diego State, f) Utah State. Texas State also joins from the Sun Belt
The Mountain West then went out and grabbled The aforementioned North Dakota State along with UTEP from the CUSA and in a head scratcher move, Northern Illinois from the MAC
The MAC replaced NIU with Sacramento State. The travel time and starting times for SSU is going to be a ball busters. I'll be looking to fade the Hornets a bunch this season
The Sun Belt replaced Texas State with Louisiana Tech from the CUSA
The embattled CUSA was unable to replace their two lost members (UTEP and La Tech). It's likely the worst conference in Div 1A.
Standing pat this year are the ACC, American, Big 10, Big 12 and the SEC

Plenty of coaching changes to go through for this year. A full 35 teams are changing their leading man - over 25%!. The primary reason - Curt Cignetti.

ADs around the country are asking themselves that if a perennial doormat can go from poverty to a national championship in two years why the f#ck can't we? And so head coaches are given less time to turn things around, honeymoons are shorter and decade long . tenures like Ferentz are going to be quaint thing of the past.

With the impact of the current Wild Wild West of NIL money and unfettered free agency that is the portal these days, the type of coaches that ADs are looking for has changed as well. No longer are up and coming coordinators hot properties. Of the 17 new Power 4 head coaches, only six were hired from coordinator jobs, and all six had previous ties to the school.

What ADs are looking for HCs that can bring can bring in transfers. Much like Cignetti plundered his old team, ADs want HCs that can instantly reboot the teams. Matt Campbell brought 24 Iowa State transfers to Penn State: Eric Morris took 18 North Texas transfers with him to Oklahoma State: Alex Golesh has 13 USF transfers following him to Auburn. The Sopranos had less theft.

And what are the coaches looking for? Alignment. Coaches need a lot more money for a program than they did just a few years ago. They want to make sure that the president and BOT are willing to sign off on what an athletic director may promise. Are you listening MSU?

When it was all said and done, here's the result of this years Coaching Carousel"

Teams

In with the new
Former Position
Out with the old

Ryan Silverfield
Memphis HC

Sam Pittman

Umm - Nope. he didn’t really win anything at Memphis. There were a few good years, but no American Conference championships. His Tigers never finished higher than third. He was on the hot seat and now he gets a promotion?

Whenever a coach gets hired away from a place and that place's fans are gleefully watching him leave, that's a problem. And the record for hiring away Memphis head coaches should give one pause. The last two Memphis head coaches - Justin Fuente had one good season at Virginia Tech before getting fired while Mike Norvell's hot seat is ghost pepper hot at Florida State.

Maybe he got the gig as Memphis beat Arkansas last year. To give him some credit, Silverfield knows the area. Memphis is an important recruiting area for Arkansas. And he's shown a knack for building rosters thrugh the portal. But Arkansas is unlikely to move up in the SEC

Alex Golesh
South Florida HC

Hugh Freeze

It’s going to be fun in Auburn for a change. Golesh’s background of producing prolific offenses should provide instant help on the Plains. And he brought a bunch of his guys with him from South Florida to expedite the rebuild. The Tigers need the help after not finishing higher than ninth in the SEC in scoring over the last six seasons.

He had USF off to a great start last year with wins over Boise State and Florida, but in three years his Bulls never finished higher in the American Conference than fourth. That said, he did turn the dormant program around.

Auburn will have their moments but I doubt that replace Alabama and Georgia in the top tier of the SEC.

Tosh Lupoi
Oregon DC

Justin Wilcox

Long regarded for his work on the recruiting trail and as a defensive assistant, Lupoi’s first opportunity as a head coach is at his alma mater. The former California defensive lineman spent the last four years working as Oregon’s defensive coordinator and previously spent time as an assistant Alabama (2014-18) and in the NFL (2019-21).

Lupoi knows the program, which helps given Cal's fiscal limitations. He also has renowned recruiting prowess on the West Coast -- two major boxes checked for the Golden Bears.

Lupoi is a significant step up for the Golden Bears

Ryan Beard
Missouri State HC

Tim Beck

Coastal Carolina wants to be a fun program for a fun school, so it made a fun hire that flew under the radar. Beard’s a 37-year-old head coach who put together a great offense at Missouri State, and he’s about to do the same in Conway.

He's young (37) but already has HC experience taking Missouri State to a blow in their first year in Div 1A.

The knock is that he is a Midwest guy but he was able to land Coastal's best recruiting class so far. The Chanticleers will be fun to watch again.

Jim Mora
UConn HC

Jay Norvell

Colorado State outright stole one here. After a huge year at UConn, it's surprising that Mora didn't got some P4 looks. ,

Mora was once viewed as a fish out of water in the college game, after years in the NFL. But he found success in East Hartford with back to back 9 win seasons. Colorado State would kill for that right now. The Rams' last 9+ win season was in 2014 and they've had one winning season over the last eight years.

Of all the G5 (or soon-to-be G6) hires this cycle, this may be the most impactful for the program.

Jon Sumrall
Tulane HC

Billy Napier

Outstanding hire for the Gators. Sumrall went 23-4 over two seasons with Troy, before going 20-7 in two years at Tulane. He finished 7-1 in conference play in each of his four seasons as a head coach, reaching his conference's championship game each season and winning three league titles. This year, he got the Green Wave into the College Football Playoff, an achievement Florida hasn't done in its 12-year history of the CFP..

He’s got the he-proved-it seasons many other new SEC hires don’t.

Sumrall knows the SEC from his background as a player at Kentucky and later stints as an assistant with the Wildcats and Ole Miss.

Florida will challenging for SEC titles soon.

Jimmy Rogers
Washington State HC

Matt Campbell

Well, it finally happened. After years of seeing other colleges and NFL teams trying to pry Matt Campbell away from Iowa State, Penn State finally was able to do it.

Enter Jimmy Rogers who has been on quite a meteoric rise. . In just two seasons in charge at South Dakota State (2023-24), he guided the program to a 27-3 record and won the ‘23 FCS National Championship. Rogers was then hired at Washington State last season and took a revamped roster to a solid 6-6 season with a bowl appearance.

His time in South Dakota him the knowledge of recruiting and navigating the upper Midwest and Plains. Iowa State has a hard ceiling on how far they can go. Rogers should keep them at that ceiling.

Billy Napier
Florida HC

Bob Chesney

Sometimes you need to take a step back in order to move forward. When Napier took the Florida job I thought is was too far too fast. That turned out to be true. Now he's back at a level where he has found success and should thrive again.

While at UL Lafayette, Napier's Ragin' Cajuns went 40-12, including three 10-win seasons and a 12-1 record in 2021

Expectations are high at James Madison after coaching runs by Curt Cignetti and Bob Chesney but not nearly as high as in Gainesville. Napier will refind his footing and the good times will continue to roll in Norfolk

Collin Klein
Texas A&M OC

Chris Klieman

Kansas State is a unique place for college football. Bill Snyder built a solid program that he oversaw for 27 years. Chris Klieman was a worthy steward of the Wildcats program over the past seven seasons before retiring.

Collin Klein was groomed for the K-State job as a Snyder and Klieman assistant for seven seasons before going off to Texas A&M to be the OC on Mike Elko's staff in 2024. Klein has played there, coached there and seems to be the perfect guy to keep the culture in Manhattan going into the future.

Mark Carney
Interim HC and OC

Kenni Burns

Kent State removed the interim tag from Carney after leading the Flashes to a 5-7 record in 2025, that included its first win since 2023 and first victory over a FBS opponent since 2022.

Kent State is the bottom of the bottom feeders in college football. Getting five wins out of its roster is just short of a miracle. There is optimism that Nick Saban's old alma mater can make a bowl game.

Will Stein
Oregon OC

Mark Stoops

Mark Stoops was the winningest coach in Kentucky history, but Stein provides a much-needed breath of fresh air after the program grew stale over the last couple of seasons. Stein is a Kentucky guy being born in the Bluegrass state and former Louisville QB. He coordinated some of the nation’s top offenses at Oregon over the last three seasons and already put his stamp on the program with a standout transfer portal class.

His career really took off at Oregon. He worked with Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore (all transfers) and got the most out of them. He should make Kentucky a much better offensive team than they were under Mark Stoops. And quarterbacks who want to be developed for the NFL will take a long look at the Wildcats going forward.

Kentucky is going to be fun to watch and score a few upsets in the SEC in the near future.

Lane Kiffen
Mississippi HC

Brian Kelly

What a circus. The hiring of Kiffen dominated the Coaching Carousel and the CFP this. Just what an ego maniac wanted.

Now it's time to put a football team on the field.

And he has proven he can do that. Kiffin has navigated the new transfer portal and NIL rules as well as any coach in college football. The Bayou Bengals are sparing no expense on the talent acquisition front, and Kiffin should have no trouble keeping Louisiana’s top talent at home on the recruiting trail.

He went 55-19 at Mississippi with three consecutive seasons of double-digit victories, The combination of money to attract talent along with an ability to build some of college football’s top offenses, will quickly help Kiffin push LSU back into title contention.

Too bad contention may not be enough for LSU fans. It's the Natty or bust.

Charles Huff
Southern Miss HC

Ryan Silverfield

Huff is likely the fastest rising candidate of this years Carousel. Huff spent four years at Marshall, where he won 10 games and a Sun Belt championship in his final season. He left over to Southern Miss, where he transformed a 1-11 program to a 7-5 mark this year. Huff has worked with Nick Saban at Alabama and coached Saquon Barkley at Penn State At just 43, this is a stepping-stone job if he rocks.

Memphis sits at or near the top of the American in resources and should challenge annually for the Playoff via the Group of 6 spot. Expectations are high, but Huff has shown the ability to do more with less.

Memphis has been a disappointment for several years. No longer.

Kyle Willingham
Utah HC

Sherrone Moore

D@mn, I was always hoping that Willingham was going to replace Dantonio. They similarities are striking. But he seemed content to stay at Utah and finish his career as a Ute icon.

So I was surprised that when he did retire, he did an about face and jumped into that cesspool Michigan program. The Blue Wall that protected the program for so long was beginning to show cracks, deciding to bring in someone with an untarnished reputation.

I get why Michigan did it. Can't fathom why Willingham did it? He's a HOF coach and doesn't need to gig.

Michigan got what they needed. Someone expected to rehabilitate their reputation and bring discipline to a program out of control.

Sad to say, it's a good hire.

Pat Fitzgerald
Northwestern HC

Jonathan Smith

, Fitzgerald is back and with a bag of chips on his shoulder. Fitzgerald is a Big Ten guy from his time as a player and coach at Northwestern. He has obvious ties to the Chicagoland era and his recruiting net becomes wider due to less restrictive admission standards and better resources.

He posted three seasons of at least 10 victories at his alma mater from 2006-22. No small feat at handicapped Northwestern. He brings discipl;ine and energy that was sorely lacking under the last two guys.

Forget about the last two years at Northwestern, this is exactly what State needed. The improvements will come quickly. Football is going to be fun to watch along the Red Cedar.

Casey Woods
SMU OC

Ryan Beard

The SMU offense got rocking fast after joining the ACC in large part due to Woods. The Mustangs averaged over 30 points a game every year under Woods, including a prolific ‘24 season where the offense accumulated 511 points (third-most in program history). The Bears will have a fun attack right away.

Woods was targeted for several open jobs this cycle, and now he takes over a Missouri State program that made a bowl game in its first year in FBS. This looks to be one of the better hires. May take some flyers on the over for the Bears

Neal Brown
Texas Asst HC

Eric Morris

Expectations are higher now at North Texas. The Mean Green nearly found itself in the College Football Playoff this season, and as a result lost their HC to Oklahoma State. North Texas has shown they can compete for championships. Brown showed he can win championships in the Sun Belt with Troy (35-16 overall) but he flatlined in six years at West Virginia He never could turn the corner.

This one is a toss up. Will North Texas get the Troy version of Brown or the West Virginia. My guess is that NT caught lightning in a bottle with Morris that Brown won't be able to match.

Rob Harley
Interim HC and DC

Thomas Hammock

Yeah, no pressure, just try to totally rebuild the Huskies as they make a move into the Mountain West. He’s technically an interim head coach, and he’s being thrown into a tough situation. - Try to make Northern Illinois competitive enough to give him a shot at the full-time job.

Tom Hammock bolted for the Seattle Seahawks in mid February leaving NIU in a pickle as the transfer portal had just closed. Rather than conduct a full blown search, NIU simply promoted their DC.

The Huskies are coming off a very disappointing 3-9 season (2-6 in the MAC) and will step up in competition in 2026.

He's from the Dantonio coaching tree having been a GA in 2013 and then following Narduzzi to Pitt to be LB coach. He became DC for Arkansas State leading the Red Wolves to back to back bowls in 2023 and 2024 before coming over to NIU.

It's going to be a tall order to make NIU competitive again.

John Hauser
Interim HC and DC

Brian Smith

The Sherrone Moore firing at Michigan may have captured the national spotlight, but Michigan wasn't alone in having an abrupt coaching change due to improper conduct. Ohio fired Brian Smith after just one season and named assistant John Hauser coach for the Bobcats' bowl game.

Like Smith, Hauser won his bowl and was given the permanent job. He has been with the program for four seasons, working his way up from safeties coach, to DC, to assistant head coach in such a short time.

Hauser's defenses have been elite in the MAC in his time there and should continue. Ohio has had two sudden coaching changes in as many years, so stability is a major need for this program.

Eric Morris
North Texas HC

Mike Gundy

Oklahoma State is a program built around high-powered offenses, so why not give a shot to the guy who ran the best attack in America, and have him bring over all the top players.

Eric Morris may not be a big name to most people, but he's got an impressive resume. He played and coached at Texas Tech, coached at Houston and Washington State while also a head coach at Incarnate Word and North Texas.

He obviously knows the recruiting landscape. He's also known as a guy who can develop quarterbacks. He was Patrick Mahomes' position coach at Texas Tech and was with Cam Ward at Incarnate Word and Washington State. His quarterback at North Texas, Drew Mestemaker, leads the nation in passing and follows him to Stillwater. He's coached under Mike Leach and Kliff Kingsbury, so he knows how to run an offense.

Great hire. I'll be looking to make some investments on the Pokes and a few on the overs as well.

Pete Golding
Interim HC and DC

Lane Kiffen

After all the Lane Kiffen drama, Ole Miss really had no choice. Familiarity with the roster was paramount for the folks in Oxford, so Golding was relieved of the interim tag and got the full-time gig.

He’s already off to a good start after guiding Ole Miss to two College Football Playoff victories after Kiffin’s departure to LSU. His defense was was #1 in the SEC, a key reason why the Rebels were able to make the CFP.

Additionally, Golding maintained a couple of key pieces from the ‘25 team and brought in one of the SEC’s top portal classes to see if the Rebels can make a push even deeper into the playoff this fall. Golding is ready for this promotion and inherits one of the better setups for a first-year coach.

JaMarcus Shepard
Alabama Asst HC

Trent Bray

Shephard isn't a splashy hire but the Beavers aren't exactly a splashy job, so maybe this could be the perfect marriage. His spent the the last four seasons as Kalen DeBoer's assistant head coach at both Washington and Bama, so he knows offense and what it looks like to run a program.

Shephard was regarded as one of college football’s top WR coaches and has tons of experience as an assistant with stops at Western Kentucky, Washington State, Purdue, Washington, and Alabama.

This is Shephard’s first head-coaching job. OSU is rolling the dice that he takes off. There's not much downside for a prgram that's moved from the P4 team to a G6 and trending down.

Matt Campbell
Iowa State HC

James Franklin

After a lengthy search, Penn State finally landed on Campbell to replace James Franklin. The Ohio native thrived at one of the toughest power conference jobs in the nation by recording a 72-55 mark and eight bowl trips at Iowa State. The Cyclones’ 11-3 record in 2024 was the best single season in program history,

Campbell has been sought after by other schools and the NFL over the last decade, yet Penn State was finally the one to pull him away from Ames. Expectations in Happy Valley dwarf what he dealt with in Ames. Campbell made a habit of exceeding expectations.

He is from eastern Ohio, played at Pitt and Mount Union and was a coach at Bowling Green and Toledo before netting the Cyclones job in 2016. That and his no-frills style and developmental success makes him a good fit in Happy Valley.

Penn State is back in the hunt for the Big Ten title for years to come.

Alonzo Carter
Arizona RB Coach

Troy Taylor

Every time you see Sacramento State this year on TV the announcers will be sure to mention that he was the lead dancer and choreographer for MC Hammer.

He will certainly bring that energy to a program making a huge jump to Div 1A. He is known for upgrading the rushing attack at Arizona, boosting talent depth, and ranking among the top recruiters in the Big 12

He has extensive roots to the Golden State including stints as an assistant at San Jose State (2017-23), a seven-year run as Contra Costa’s head coach, and stops in the state’s high school ranks. He should be able to attract talent to the newest FBS program.

This will a fun one to watch.

Brian Hartline
Ohio State OC

Alex Golesh

We know Hartline can recruit, but can he do it without the Ohio State apparatus behind him. He remains close to the region he's recruited best, South Florida, and with a USF program on the rise he should get a shot at the better recruits.

But can he lead a program? He has no head coaching experience and it seems he would have been better off starting in a different conference. I'll be surprised if USF doesn't take a step back.

Blake Anderson
Interim HC and OC

Charles Huff

This year's coaching carousel certainly has its share of conduct unbecoming. Anderson was caught up in an off-field scandal that led to his firing for cause from Utah State. Anderson was let go in Logan right before the 2024 season after an internal investigation found he violated Title IX policy.

Southern Miss decided to overlook the baggage, opting instead continuity. He was OC under Charles Huff who bolted for Memphis. Anderson is a proven winner at the Group of Six level, recording a 51-37 mark at Arkansas State (2014-20) and a 23-17 record at Utah State (2021-23) before getting caught up in scandal.

Tavita Pritchard
Washington Commanders QB Coach

Frank Reich

Stanford is much like the Dallas Cowboys where the owner (in this case the AD Andrew Luck) is really calling the shots. What better way than to hire your backup from your playing days.

Give him credit, few coaches know the Stanford program better than Pritchard. He played quarterback for the Cardinal from 2006-09 and later worked on the Farm as an assistant from 2010-22, including the last five seasons as offensive coordinator. He spent the last three years as the Commanders’ quarterback coach. Pritchard’s has the familiarity with what it takes to win at Stanford, but his track record as a coordinator with the Cardinal was uninspiring and he’s also a first-time head coach.

Stanford will be stuck in the lower tier of the ACC.

Mike Jacobs
Mercer HC

Jason Candle

G6 teams must think outside the box, and hiring one of the hottest FCS coaches is the type of move MAC schools should pursue. Jacobs served previously as head coach at Notre Dame (OH), a Division II program, from 2016 to 2019,, Lenoir Rhyne, also in Division II, from 2020 to 2023 He left for Mercer, an FCS program where he went 20-6 in 2024 and 2025, winning two SoCon titles and reaching the FCS postseason both years.

Toledo actually might improve from the Jason Candle years.

Will Hall
Tulane Passing Coordinator

Jon Sumrall

A real head scratcher. Tulane is coming off an American championship and an appearance in the College Football Playoff and back to back home run hires - Jon Sumrall to Florida and WIllie Fritz to Houston. But it looks like they may have shanked this one.

Were they going for continuity? He was the passing game coordinator for the Green Wave for all of one season. In the previous four years, he went 14-30 as head coach of Southern Miss. Not the best of resumes.

I guess two out of three is not that bad.

Alex Mortensen
Interim HC and OC

Trent Dilfer

WTF is going on at UAB? First they make one of the worst coaching hires of the century in Trent Dilfer only to promote his OC? Did no one else want the job?

Maybe it's because Mortensen, is the son son of the late ESPN reporter Chris.

Mortensen's Blazers upset Memphis in his first game at the helm, but would lose the next four games. In their last two losses, they gave up 53 and 48 points ... at home ... to North Texas and South Florida, respectively. Apparently that's good enough for the UAB to get the permanent promotion.

Bob Chesney
James Madison HC

DeShaun Foster

Here's teh thought process – why not take the guy who followed Curt Cignetti at James Madison, and got the program to the College Football Playoff. And, like Cignetti did at Indiana, will bring over a slew of the great JMU players.

If it worked once it should again right?

It just might. He's got the creds with stints at FCS's Holy Cross and JMU. He took Assumption to three D-II playoffs in his five seasons there and Holy Cross to four playoffs in six years. Not bad.

The down side, his playing and coaching career has primarily been in the New England and mid-Atlantic area. He'll need to get up to speed on West Coast recruiting real fast. This should work out in the end though.

Jason Candle
Toledo HC

Jim Mora

It’s an interesting choice after succeeding for so long at Toledo – it always seemed like he was destined to take a mid-level Power Four job. Jim Mora turned this into a good gig, but not there’s pressure to win.

Candle was a perennial candidate to leave Toledo, so it's something of a coup that UConn was able to land him after its best stretch of football in more than a decade under Jim Mora.

During his 11 seasons, he was 81-44, reaching nine bowls, winning two MAC titles, and never finishing with a losing record. Though he did have a few few gaffes along the way.

Candle’s background on offense, along with overall success at Toledo, should help UConn build on the program’s 18 wins over the last two years.

Morgan Scalley
Utah DC

Kyle Whittingham

.After Whittingham retired then bolted for AA, Utah had no real choice here. It’s the in-house hire Utah had to make. Scalley played at Utah, starred at Utah, started out as a grad assistant at Utah, and after 25 years with the school, it’s his time to show if is ready to continue what Kyle started.

Scalley worked as an assistant under Whittingham since ‘07 and after getting promoted to DC in ‘16, he was instrumental in assembling some of the nation’s top units.

This is a continuity hire that should work. Utah will maintain its identity as a tough disciplined program and a force in the Big 12

James Franklin
Penn State HC

Brent Pry

Franklin never received the credit he deserved for doing a strong job with Penn State. Franklin's Nittany Lions went 24-8 over the last three seasons and reached the Big Ten championship game and College Football Playoff semifinals last year. He won 10 or more games six times during his 12 seasons in Happy Valley and finished in the Associated Press' top ten five times.

Try and match that record against any new hire this year.

He knows the mid-Atlantic area well — he was born and raised in Pennsylvania, and not only was he the head coach at Penn State but also an assistant at Maryland and James Madison. Building back Virginia Tech's program in the ACC will be a bit easier than competing in the Big Ten or the SEC (remember he had some great years at Vandy before jumping to Penn State.).

Va Tech is going to be a contender in the ACC very soon.

Kirby Moore
Missouri OC

Jimmy Rogers

Wazzou went the old school route hiring an up and coming coordinator. They are also looking for stability. Nick Rolovich was fired during the pandemic, Jake Dickert left for Wake Forest after three seasons, and Jimmy Rogers lasted just one year before leaving for Iowa State. In that time, the Cougars have watched the Pac-12 crumble and their program lose its power-conference status.

Kirby, brother of New Orleans Saints HC Kellen, has deep roots to the area having been born in Washington, playing at Boise State and previous coaching stints at Washington and Fresno State.

Coaching is in his blood. Wazzou is willing to take a shot that this pays off. We will see.

Remember the 2026 GO JUMBO is Nov 14 at the Westgate.

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2026 NFL Draft Recap

4/24/2026

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The Hole Night 50th Reunion bash was a huge success. Great old friends telling great old stories while enjoying adult beverages and fine cigars. And while the reunion was going on I had my good eye on the draft too. Here's how I see it played out.

Fernando Mendoza
QB Indiana

It was a no brainer pick. Mendoza was the best QB in the draft by far. He's a complete QB with tremendous accuracy. His ability to bail the offense out of deep holes on 3rd down is uncanny. Don't underestimate his mobility which he will need as the Raiders attempt to upgrade one of the worst OLs in the game. The Raiders finally have their franchise QB

David Bailey
DE Texas Tech

Bailey is a proven edge rusher but hit or miss as a rush defender and paired with Will McDonald they will rattle Drake Maye and Josh Allen. But he is hot or miss as a rush defenders similar to McDonald which could cause some concerns. He'll be measured up against Arvell Reese who was also considered at this spot. Bailey is more proven as an edge rusher but may not have the upside of Reese.

Jeremiyah Love
RB Notre Dame

Love becomes the highest drafted RB since Sauqon back in 2018. Love is elite as both a runner and receiver and can supercharge the Cardinal offense. But there is no one around him. Arizona will likely waste his best years as the try to find a QB and build an offense.

Carnell Tate
WR Ohio State

The first surprise of the draft. Expectations would be that Tennessee would g defense with this pick. With teammates like Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Jeremiah Smith, Tate went under the radar, but he is a talented receiver in his own right. Tate has good size, runs well enough, and has flashed big-play ability while never being the No. 1 featured receiver. He's a safe pick to be a solid contributor. He will be compared to Jordan Tyson who was available.

Arvell Reese
DE/OLB Ohio State

The Giants had to be surprised that Reese was available at 5 so they grabbed him rather than a position of need such as WR. He is the most complete defender in the draft. Reese is a special player with great instincts in combination with being big, athletic, and fast. Reese is a sideline-to-sideline run defender who is tough at the point of attack. He is also capable of dropping into coverage, moves well in zone, and is a dangerous pass rusher. The Giants will likely use him as an off-ball linebacker as he develops and realizes his immense potential as an NFL edge rusher.

Mansoor Delane
CB LSU

The first mistake of the draft. The Chiefs traded up three spots to get the what might be the 2nd best CB in the draft. He could have been available later in the night. Delane is an instinctive defender with a quality skill set for the next level. He has good size to him with upside to continue to get better as he gains experience. Delane's size, run-support skills and ball disruption are NFL ready. But he was not worth trading up forr.

Sonny Styles
LB Ohio State

The Redskins are getting the best player on the board who fills a huge need for them. They should be able to cover the middle of the field for once, very useful against the Eagles’ offense. Styles is an incredibly versatile, high-IQ prospect who could immediately be the field general His ability to cover ground in coverage at his size is nothing short of special.

Jordyn Tyson
WR Arizona State

the best WR in the draft falls to the Saints at 8. Tyson is one of the most explosive prospects, regardless of position. He can stretch a defense with his combination of size and vertical burst, plus he has a knack for picking up yards after the catch. An excellent addition to a hobbled Saints WR corps. But he has a bit of the injury bug too missing time every year during his college career.

Spencer Fano
OT Utah

The Browns making a good draft move? When is the last time you could say that. Cleveland fooled KC into thinking they were going for Delane and got their guy and draft capital too. Fano pairs high-end athleticism with technical prowess and strong hands. He's an elite zone blocker who has the size to play anywhere along the offensive line if needed. His arm length may scare some off, but it was never a massive issue for him on tape.

Francis Mauigoa
OT Miami (FL)

Were the Giants drinking during the draft. First they take a defensive project at a non-need position. Then they take OT that they also don't need who might not be able to play due to a back injury. He'll kick inside to right guard for now, where he'll be a butt-kicker in the run game. His ability to move people off the line of scrimmage is special for a player who hasn't even turned 21 yet.

Caleb Downs
S Ohio State

The Cowboys upgrade their much maligned secondary. Downs is a true do-it-all safety with no true holes in his game. Downs can play safety and nickel corner for the Cowboys and give them a dynamic playmaker in the middle of the field. In 2025, Could they have gotten him at 12 instead of trading two fifth round picks to move up one spot. Maybe, but it was a small price to pay to get Downs.

Kaydan Proctor
OT Alabama

The Lions were really hoping Kadyn Proctor would fall to them, but the Dolphins quashed those hopes. Proctor is risky with his weight, but there’s a ton of upside with this pick for the Dolphins, who have needed offensive line help for years. Oh, and they got a couple fifth rounders too, Excellent drafting by Miami.

Ty Simpson
QB Alabama

You got to be kidding me! What a joke. Arizona was debating whether to take Simpspn at 30 so why would he be good enough to take at 13. The Rams are on the verge to win the Super Bowl right now. They needed the best player available to put them over the top. Instead, they selected a one-year starter who melted down in every big game. There’s a chance Simpson wouldn’t have been the starter at Alabama had he returned to school. Worst draft pick I can ever remember.

Vega Ioane
G Penn State

Ba;timore, unlike the Rams understand how to use the draft to get to a Super Bowl. The Ravens, as is their history, usual, were able to get a great value. Ioane is a strong blocker at the point of attack with the ability to generate movement in the ground game. He is also a reliable pass protector. Ioane is explosive, can mirror speed rushers, and plays with physicality with a nasty streak. Ioane looks like a guard for the NFL and probably does not have the length to kick outside to tackle.

Rueben Bain
DE Miami (FL)

Great value pick. Bain could have easily gone in the 7-10 range, and no one would have blinked an eye. Bain is a rugged, powerful pass rusher who has been was dinged for short arms, but he’s a great player and should be able to be productive in the pros. He can set a hard edge in the run game and collapse pockets with ease. He fills what was easily the biggest need on the Bucs.

Kenyon Sadiq
TE Oregon

Multi-tight end formations is all the rage lately, so this pick makes sense despite the Jets having a talented tight end in Mason Taylor. That's his ideal role - a movable TE2 who can block in space and run past linebackers. Sadiq is one of the most physically-gifted prospects for the position in a long time running a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the combine. Athletes like him don't come around every year.

Blake Miller
OT Clemson

The Lions desperately needed a tackle with Taylor Decker gone, and there was some discussion that they’d move up for Kadyn Proctor. Instead, they get Blake Miller, who fills an obvious need. Miller was a solid starting tackle for Clemson with 54 consecutive starts. He is a good athlete with quickness and agility on the edge. Miller could stand to get stronger and play with more physicality, so he is a bit of a project. But he has the ability to develop into a solid pro starter. Time will tell if they should have gone with Monroe Freeling over Miller, This likely confirms Penei Sewell to the left side as Miller was a four-year starter at right tackle.

Caleb Banks
DT Florida

A huge reach for Banks who was projected as a late second rounder. But he fills a position of need for the Vikings. At 6-foot-6, 327 pounds with an over 7-foot wingspan, when he fires off low into contact, he's nearly impossible to block. The worry is that we never saw it consistently before his 2025 season was cut short with a foot injury that required surgery. He then had another foot surgery after an injury suffered during the combine week. The Vikingsd would have been better off taking a better secondary player here.

Monroe Freeling
OT Georgia

Freeling has got prototypical left tackle size and athleticism but the knock on him was he really only started looking like a first-round tackle for the final few games of 2025. The Panthers don't need him to start right away after the Rasheed Walker signing so he will have time to develop.

Makai Lemon
WR USC

This could either be a great value pick or an utter bust. Lemon is dynamic weapon good enough to go in the top half of the draft Despite not being big, (5-11, 190) Lemon did nice job winning contested catches. For the NFL, he would fit best as a slot receiver. But, Lemon had some seriously terrible and weird interviews at the combine. This pick has great upside, but Lemon may not be around very long if he continues this behavior.

Max Iheanachor
OT Arizona State

Iheanachor is a project having only started playing football 5 years ago. But he has very high upside. For the Steelers, they won't necessarily need him to start Year 1 with Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu already set at tackle. But they could have had Iheanachor much later in the draft.

Akheen Mesidor
DE Miami (FL)

It fills a need, but Akheem Mesidor is an old prospect (25), so there’s not much upside. Mesidor was also able to ride Rueben Bain’s coattails, so there’s no way of knowing how he would have performed if opposing teams were able to focus on him.
Mesidor was truly dominant vs. both run and pass. The problem is he doesn't quite have top-10 tools. The Chargers needed help on the defensive line in a huge way, and he should be a plug-and-play piece on this defense as it tries to contend.

Malachi Lawrence
DE Central Florida

The Cowboys traded down three spots and were able to still get their player His explosiveness is all over his tape. He's undoubtedly a project, though, who flashed more on reps than he did for long stretches of time. He’s a liability against the run, but Dallas needed a pass-rushing replacement for Micah Parsons.

KC Concepcion
WR Texas A&M

K.C. Concepcion is a terrific prospect with some great play-making ability. He was the best separator in the entire draft class. He can play on both the outside or slot for the Browns and has even taken 68 handoffs in his career. The only issue is a 9.3% career drop rate. IThe Browns need wide receiver help desperately and could still potentially add another in this draft class. But Concepcion is a great place to start. It must be noted that he comes with some character concerns.

Dillon Theineman
S Oregon

Thieneman will be a nice upgrade for the Bears at safety. Thieneman had eight picks and 11 pass-breakups in his college career to go along with 4.35 speed. He's a crazy athlete who has a nose for the football and can cover as well. But the Bears may have wanted to consider other players for their dreadful pass rush

Keylan Rutledge
G Georgia Tech

The Texans moved up for Keylan Rutledge? Why? They easily could have gotten him two picks later because he’s a second-round prospect. He's a hard-nosed guard who you'll never have to worry about playing through the whistle. He's a people mover at the point of attack but pass protection could be an issue, which is not ideal with C.J. Stroud regressing each year.

Chris Johnson
CB San Diego State

Johnson was a dynamo in coverage in the Mountain West but his athleticism questionalble. There was no need to trade up for Johnson with several talented corners available. Also Miami failed to address the weakest receiver room in the NFL in the first round, which is something they needed to do to make sure Malik Willis succeeds.

Caleb Lomu
OT Utah

To get a tackle with Lomu's tape in pass protection at 28 overall is nothing short of a steal. He falls here because he needs to get stronger, more consistent, and play with more edge. Drake Maye was sacked at least five times in every single playoff game, so New England had to obtain someone like Lomu.

PeterWoods
DT Clemson

With Chris Jones turning 32 this offseason, the Chiefs nab his successor in Peter Woods. Woods has an incredible blend of explosiveness and play strength. He falls to this point in the draft because of lackluster tape this past fall compared to 2024, but now he gets to learn from the best in the business on how to rush the passer. We’ll have to see if Woods finally lives up to his potential, but there’s a ton of upside with this pick.

Omar Cooper
WR Indiana

he Jets are giving Geno Smith quite the arsenal, selecting Omar Cooper after getting Kenyon Sadiq. They were starved for offensive firepower, and they may now have plenty of it. New York's offense doesn't have that reliable possession type receiver on the roster. Adding him gives the WR that weapon. Cooper should be a big upgrade across from Garrett Wilson, and he provides with plenty of value because he easily could have gotten him in the 16-21 range.

Keldric Faulk
DE Auburn

The Titans complete the overhaul of their non-existent edge room from a season ago with one of the draft's best run defenders. Keldric Faulk has superb talent and could have easily been chosen in the teens or maybe even No. 12. The Titans don’t have an edge rush, so the Titans are filling a huge need with a prospect with insane upside. Faulk has the length to be a hard edge-setter across from Jermaine Johnson in the Titans' defense. He also has the body type to kick inside and rush the passer. He'll need some development as a true rusher, but he offers intriguing tools in that regard.

Jadarian Price
RB Notre Dame

The Seahawks have only four picks in the draft so using the most valuable pick on a position of nonpremium position is a bit of a head scratcher. Price is a reach with plenty of unkknowns about him. That said, Price is an explosive running back who fills a huge need in the wake of Kenneth Walker’s departure and Zach Charbonnet’s injury.

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2026 NFL Draft - It's the 50th anniversary of Hole Night!

4/23/2026

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Mendoza is the heavy favorite to be the #1 overall pick

It’s the 50th anniversary of Hole Night! An epic moment in our dorm floors history that is still celebrated every Thursday. And while I will be hoisting some nice Irish and enjoying a fine cigar with my old friends, I’ll also be tracking the 2026 draft. The NFL Draft travels to the home of the Terrible Towel with the Raiders on the clock. Fernando Mendoza is the odds on favorite to be pick number 1. If he is, he will be only the fourth QB to win the Heisman, a national championship and be selected @1 overall since 1967. (Joe Burrow, Jameis Winston and Cam Newton)

The phone lines are likely be burning as most teams are looking to trade back. And the conversations will be faster and more furious this year as the time to make selections has dropped from 10 minutes to 8 minutes this year.

After several years of drafts going QB heavy in the first day, this year might have just one in Mendoza. The over under for QBs in Round 1 is 1.5 with QB Ty Simpson form Bama going either late in the first or early in the second. If he goes in the first round it will likely be the Cardinals at 31. But Arizona may wait until 2027 for a better QB draft class.

The day 1 draft will lean heavy on CBs (4.5 O/U) OL (7.5) and WR (5.5) expected to be taken.

I'll take Love at #3 to Arizona

After doing my home work, I did the following investments:

Unlike last year where the first 4 picks were pretty much a lock, this year the fun starts at pick #2. After doing my research, I’ll take:

#2 David Bailey DE Texas Tech at -135
#3 Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame +180
#4 Sonny Styles LB Ohio State +155
#7 Carnell Tate WR Ohio State +235
#13 Makai Lemon WR USC +225
#16 Akheem Mesidor DE Miami (FL) +380
#24 Denzel Boston WR Washington +500

I’m seeing a lot of conflicting advice on the Lions at 17 including a potential to trade up. I’m going to pass on the Lions trading up to grab Kaydan Proctor OT out of Bama and hedge by making 2 wagers:

#17 Monroe Freeling OT Georgia +300 and
#17 Keldric Faulk DE Auburn +2000

I also like Sonny Styles to Tennessee at #4

I’ll also make these prop bets:

Under 5.5 draft pick - Sonny Styles LB Ohio State -110
Under 7.5 draft pick – Carnell Tate WR Ohio State +105
Under 8.5 draft pick – Jordyn Tyson WR Arizona State -225
Under 10.5 draft pick - Mansoor Delane CB LSU -135
Over 10.5 draft pick – Spencer Fano OT Utah +100
Under 15.5 draft pick – Kenyon Sadiq TE Oregon -120
Over 23.5 draft pick – Omar Cooper WR Indiana +135
Over 24.5 draft pick - KC Concepcion WR Texas A&M +100
Under 25.5 draft pick - Akheem Mesidor DE Miami (FL) -330
Under 26.5 draft pick - Denzel Boston WR Washington -105

And finally:

Will Arizona draft both Jeremiyah Love RB Notre Dame and Ty Simpson QB Alabama – Yes +350

I'm taking some real flyers here. If only a few pay off it will be a profitable night. Then again, disaster could strike with a few trades and teams falling in love with certain players. It's what makes the draft so much fun!

And all these investments are made on who I think teams will take not necessarily who they should take. That will part of the next Big Book of Guesses update.

Yahooooo! It’s Hole Night!

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2026 March Madness - Izzo's got this

3/16/2026

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Relax - Izzo's got this

Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But in college football only12 teams have a shot at the title while in March Madness 68 teams have a a theoretic shot at winning it all. The rest of the games are a one act play. Win or lose and you go home. Not March Madness. Win and you keep on going.

And the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)

And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools

1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else. Hasn't worked since 2000 but I'll keep on picking Sparty.

21 of 23 Champs were Top 20 in Ken Pom including Florida last year

2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to San Antonio.

3. When picking your eventual National Champion, keep an eye on the KenPom rankings, KenPom rankings assess teams based on their offensive and defensive efficiency. Since the model was posted in 2002, 21 of the 23 national champions were ranked in the Top 20 for adjusted offensive and defensive metrics.

This year’s teams are Duke (4 Offense 2 Defense) Arizona (5 Off 3 Def) Michigan ( 8 Off 1 Def), Florida (9 Off 6 def), Tennessee (18 Off 3 Def) Houston (14 Off 5 Def). Michigan State just misses (13 def but 24 Off). Also, just missing Iowa State (21 Off 4 Def), Virginia (27 Off 16 Def) Gonzaga (29 Off 9 Def) and UConn (30 Off 11 def)

4. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. In 2023, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round. Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 158-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.

McNeese over Clemson was a 12 over 5 seed last year

5. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. Last year, the #2 seeds went 4-0 in the first round and 3-1 in the second round. In 2024 they went 4-0 in both the first and second rounds. In 2023 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round (State upsetting 2 seed Marquette!). Same thing happened in 2022 and 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. Perhaps the trend will return. Consider taking a 2 seed to lose in the first round and another in the second round.

6. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over 3 seeds. It’s getting a bit over rated. Last year all the 3 seeds advanced easily. In 2024, #14 seed Oakland took down Kentucky. But, in the two previous years, the 3 seeds went 4-0 in the first round. Overall, #3 seeds are 137-23 (85.6%) in the first round.

7. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. In 2024, year the 12’s went 2-2 against the 5s. The same thing happened last year. In fact, 12 seeds are 57-103 against the 5 seeds (35.6%). A winning bracket is going to get a 12-5 upset correct. Go for it.

While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (St Johns, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Texas Tech this year)

8. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. In 2024 it was 11 seed NC State making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 112 Final Four teams, 85 were top-four seeds. That still leaves room for one or two non top four seeds.

Conference championships ,atter - right Purdue

9. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only twice since they began seeding in 1979 (2008 and 2025). Amazingly both Final Fours were in San Antonio! Putting in all 1 seeds your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 12.1. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 4 times over the last 23 years (2000, 2006, 2011 and 2023).

10. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.

11. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except two since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32.

12. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 27 years, 13 national champions won their conference tournament including Florida last year. This years champs include Purdue, Duke, Arkansas, and Arizona.

13. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year be cautious about Virginia and Illinois.

Akron is a three-peat MAC champion

14. Along those same lines, since Arizona won it all in 1997, no team west of Texas has been crowned champs.

15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:

a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. Don’t worry about the loss in the Big Ten tourney. It actually could help State by not having to play on Sunday. They also played #1 Seed Duke tough earlier in the season.

b. In the South – I’ll take Houston. They have pretty much the same roster as last year’s runner up and the regional is played in Houston.

c. In the West – I’ll take Purdue. The preseason #1 team is hitting their stride at just the right time. Braden Smith needs just 1 more assist to beat Bobby Hurley’s all time record.

d. In the Midwest – I’ll take Michigan. Haters gonna hate but I got to admit that is one fine team Dusty May has assembled. If he weren’t coaching at Michigan I would really like the guy.

15. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 9. A little on the low side but acceptable. And you saw that correctly, I have the Big 10 dominating the Final Four with 3 teams.

16. For my First Four upset I’m going to take two! First it’s a one loss Miami (OH) to take down to take down Tennessee and secons, I’ll take the high scoring NC State to upset BYU.

17. For the 14 over 3 upset – I’m going to pass this year.

18. For the 13 over 4 upset - There are a couple of tempting ones in Hawaii over Arkansas and Troy over Nebraska but I’ll pass here too.

19. Not going to pass on a 12 over 5 though. Miami (OH) got all the publicity in the MAC but Akron won the tourney and is a good team. They take down Texas Tech in the Midwest.

20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? UConn is the most susceptible but I’ll take the Huskies to make the Sweet 16 along with all the other 1 and 2 seeds.

Putting it all together – here is my 2025 March Madness Brackett

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Super Bowl LX - Seattle gets another shot at New England

2/8/2026

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How much was due to New England's defense and how much was due to weather?

Happy Super Bowl Day. It’s the final football game of what was a fantastic 2025 season.

It’s also 11 years since the biggest Super Bowl blunder of all time - Russell Wilsons’ goal line pick by Malcolm Butler’s. Not sure what the over /under of the replay of that play will be today but I will take the over.

And while it is a rematch form long ago, I think it's nice to have some fresh faces on this stage after years of featuring teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.

Seattle -4.5 vs New England – It’s tied for the largest spread since 2009 but I’ll lay the points. Mainly because I don’t trust New England. Not only did they play the easiest regular season schedule this century, they followed that up with a laughable path in the postseason with wins over a Chargers team with no offensive line, a severely banged up Texans offense, and then the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham. It doesn't get much easier than that.

The Patriots' defense has led the way, but, again, the competition (and weather) certainly helped.

Seattle defense, however, is that good. For the season (including the post season) the Seahawks allowed a total of 325 points of which the Rams scored 90. That means that they allowed an average of 12.4 PPG to teams not named the Rams. New England is not the Rams.

The weather helped but the Patriots have averaged just 18 points per game in the playoffs thus far, the lowest mark for a Super Bowl team since the 1979 Rams. The Patriot offense has looked very pedestrian and QB Drake Maye is putting the ball on the carpet way too often.

I’m not a fan of laying the -4.5 but Super Bowl winners have a history of covering — 50-7-2 against the spread (ATS), including 31-1 ATS when the spread is six points or less.

Seattle is allowing less than 13 PPG to teams not named the Rams

Seattle vs New England Under 45.5 – This is more about New England’s inability to score against Seattle more than anything else. That said, both teams rely on the run and will be unable to run. Both teams like to milk the clock as well.

The Seahawks just allowed Matthew Stafford to throw all over them, but they have the league’s No. 2 run defense and were able to generate the second-most pressure in the NFL this season. That’s not good for a young quarterback like Maye who has taken five sacks in every game and has been prone to fumbling.

Maye’s youth and inexperience has tended to show against elite defenses, with Seattle being the best he will face to date, which could lead to not only inefficiency, but a conservative game plan.

Darnold is due for a drive killing turnover as well. Darnold is currently on a 3-game streak without throwing an interception, the first time that has happened all year. Let’s just that he is due.

So for on the season I’m 42-42 never being better or worse than +2 or -2 at any point. I’m going to have to have an odd number of bets to determine if I break even so I’m going to add several player prop bets. They add a lot of spice to the game too.

Expect Kupp and Shaheed to get plenty of targets with NE focusing on Smith-Njigba

Seattle WR Rashid Shaheed over 25 yards receiving- Shaheed thrives against man coverage, which the Patriots use at the 6th highest rate. New England also allows an average of 42.7 ypg to WR3. And he'll have plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities, especially with WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba drawing extra attention.

Seattle WR Cooper Kupp over 36 yards receiving – Not only will Shaheed benefit from New England focusing on stopping Smith-Njigba but Kupp will too. He’s a veteran, which will be important in the biggest game of all. He had five catches for 60 yards in the Divisional Round before reeling in four of six targets for 36 yards in the NFC Championship Game. His workload has jumped since over the last eight games after Tory Horton suffered a season-ending injury.

Henry is Maye's relief valve

New England TE Hunter Henry over 40 yards receiving - Drake Maye will be getting tons of pressure from a Seattle pass rush that can generate pressure with just a four-man rush. Henry is Maye’s pressure release in short yardage and also his best receiving option versus zone coverage, which Seattle runs at the second-highest rate.

The Seahawks defensive weakness is pass catchers in the middle of the field. They’ve allowed 114 receptions to the TE this season and the Pats aren’t afraid to ride Henry. They don’t have the WRs to consistently win against the Seahawks and Henry will be their go-to in the passing game.
Henry can also pick up yards after the catch, and the Seahawks have allowed the sixth most YAC.

Remember - Kneel downs count as a rushing attempt

New England TE Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions – I’ll marry Maye’s dumping off to Henry with the number of receptions. HC McDaniels has also heavily utilized his tight ends in recent Super Bowls. Over his past five, his primary tight end has averaged 6.8 catches for 80 yards with over 11 targets per game. I expect Henry to be heavily involved and get a sizable target share based on the matchup.

Seattle QB Sam Darnold over 2.5 rushing attempts - Here are Darnold’s rushing attempts over the past seven games: 3, 0, 6, 3, 3, 4, 3. He failed to reach three just once, and that was in the blowout win over the 49ers. Unless this is another blowout, Darnold should rush three or more times, and remember, a kneel-down counts as a rush

So gather up your friends and have a great party. We are! Have fun!

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2025 NFL Championship Games - It's about the QBs

1/25/2026

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New England's OL has had trouble keeping Drake Maye upright

Denver +4.5 vs New England – All the talk coming into the game is about how Bo Nix is out and Jarret Stidham will get the start. The line moved from Denver as a 1.5 point favorite to a 4.5 dog. Is a 6 point move justified. It’s not like the Broncos are replacing John Elway. Nix threw 11 interceptions in the regular season and tossed a pick to a Buffalo defensive lineman in the third quarter last Saturday.

And HC Sean Peyton has had success putting in backup QBs. In 2019, Teddy Bridgewater started five games because of an injury to Drew Brees. In those five games, the Saints went 5-0, and Bridgewater’s numbers were - 1,384 yards, 9 TDs vs 2 picks and a 99.1 passer rating. He’ll have Stidham ready.

And we maybe looking at the wrong QB. New England isn’t exactly rolling out Tom Brady today.

In two playoff games, Drake Maye has fumbled six times and has taken 10 sacks. The Patriots' offensive line has had trouble protecting Maye, who has been sacked on nearly 14% of his drop backs this postseason. That spells trouble for New England against a Denver team that had 68 sacks in the regular season, which tied for the fifth-most in NFL history.

Maye is also making his first career road playoff start, and Denver is just about the toughest place to do that.

The market has overreacted to losing Bo Nix and is overlooking Denver’s defense vs Drake Maye. I’ll take Denver and the points.

Sam Darnold is a disaster waiting to happen

LA Rams +2.5 @ Seattle – How close are these two teams? They have played twice and the record is:

Points Scored
Rams: 58; Seahawks: 57
Total Yards
Rams: 830; Seahawks: 829

Since these NFC West rivals played a 38-37 classic back in December, Seattle took that win and hasn’t looked back, winning three straight games in dominating fashion while outscoring opponents 81-19. Their defense has flattened everyone in that run.

But that December win by Seattle is a bit misleading. The Rams dominated that game for three quarters and actually gained 585 yards of offense in the contest with Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford threw throwing for 457 yards.

And while Seattle’s defense has been on a dominating run, QB Sam Darnold is a disaster just waiting to happen.

Darnold threw six interceptions in two games against the Rams, including four in the Seahawks’ loss in Los Angeles. In last year’s wild-card round, when he started for the Vikings, he threw an interception and took nine sacks in a 27-9 loss to the Rams. Darnold, committed a league-high 20 turnovers in the regular season, also has an oblique injury that could compromise his play.

Stafford, meanwhile, has had success against Seattle’s defense. In four meetings against the Seahawks over the past three seasons, Stafford has thrown 10 touchdowns to just one interception to go along with only two sacks. And in the two meetings this season, he finished with a grand total of zero interceptions.

In a tight game, I’ll take the better Stafford over Darnold and take the points.

I went 1-3 in the CFP championship game with a new way to lose. I got Cignettied. Needing a TD to cover and get the team total points. Cignetti set up for drives down a goes for the FG. Missed the spread by 1.5 points and the team total by the hook.

The record is now 41-41. A TD would make it 43-39. Woulda coudla shoulda.

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