I have only two things to say about last Saturday’s game. One, we blew it. We had the game early, didn’t capitalize and lost it. 2. Coach Smith gets the rivalry now. Mulling’s antics after the game (and the Big Ten’s failure to respond) got him to see the light. And like Dantonio, he will use this game to put the fire in his belly.
We are now into week ten. Only two more weeks of prep for Go Jumbo! Here’s 2 TDs worth of takeaways on the season so far for your investments at the Westgate SuperBook.
1. I knew Curt Cignetti was a great coach but I didn’t expect him to turn around Indiana that fast. They’re 8-0. The schedule may be a little light but they have crushed everyone in their path. The smallest margin of victory is 14 (vs Maryland and vs Washington). More amazing – the Hoosiers have not trailed in a game all season. We will see if they are real this weekend against an improving Spartan squad. Too bad you won’t be able to invest in them. They have a bye on Go Jumbo.
We are now into week ten. Only two more weeks of prep for Go Jumbo! Here’s 2 TDs worth of takeaways on the season so far for your investments at the Westgate SuperBook.
1. I knew Curt Cignetti was a great coach but I didn’t expect him to turn around Indiana that fast. They’re 8-0. The schedule may be a little light but they have crushed everyone in their path. The smallest margin of victory is 14 (vs Maryland and vs Washington). More amazing – the Hoosiers have not trailed in a game all season. We will see if they are real this weekend against an improving Spartan squad. Too bad you won’t be able to invest in them. They have a bye on Go Jumbo.
2. Investing in Vanderbilt is easy. If they get points they are 6-0 ATS. When the are the favorite they are 0-2 ATS. But that tidbit won’t help for Go Jumbo. They also have a bye. Perhaps we can schedule an exhibition against Indiana
3. I underestimated Coach Sanders. His OL and DL are still trash but he has them bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. For Go Jumbo he hosts Utah. With Utah QB Cam Rising out for the season this could be a dandy of a game.
4. Speaking of Utah, they have imploded. They started the season as Big 12 favorites and 4-0. They have now lost four straight including losing last week to a bad Houston team.
5. Conversely, Va Tech started the season 2-3 but with three straight wins they are 3-1 in ACC play and in the hunt for the ACC championship game. And, of course, they are idle during Go Jumbo.
6. Navy was undefeated both straight up and ATS. Then they played a team with a pulse, Notre Dame, where they got the Pearl Harbor treatment. Navy hosts AAC co-leader Tulane during Go Jumbo.
3. I underestimated Coach Sanders. His OL and DL are still trash but he has them bowl eligible for the first time since 2016. For Go Jumbo he hosts Utah. With Utah QB Cam Rising out for the season this could be a dandy of a game.
4. Speaking of Utah, they have imploded. They started the season as Big 12 favorites and 4-0. They have now lost four straight including losing last week to a bad Houston team.
5. Conversely, Va Tech started the season 2-3 but with three straight wins they are 3-1 in ACC play and in the hunt for the ACC championship game. And, of course, they are idle during Go Jumbo.
6. Navy was undefeated both straight up and ATS. Then they played a team with a pulse, Notre Dame, where they got the Pearl Harbor treatment. Navy hosts AAC co-leader Tulane during Go Jumbo.
7. Now Army picks up the “darling of college football” mantle - undefeated SU and ATS. With Air Force and North Texas up next the caissons will keep rolling along. Crap, they also have a bye for Go Jumbo. Who picked that weekend anyway? No matter, the Cadets will get the Kasserine Pass treatment from Notre Dame the following weekend. You can use your app to make a wager on that game on Sunday Nov 17th.
8. Boise State is the current favorite for the non Power 4 team to make the CFP. Behind the running of stud RB Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos are 6-1 with the only loss a close one to #1 Oregon (37-34). Keep this thing going and they could end up as high as 4 seed. For Go Jumbo they will face a not that bad, 5-3 San Jose State. For the record, BSU is 5-1 ATS.
9. MACtion will be in full swing for Go Jumbo. If you get there Wednesday (I’m looking at you Woz) two of the worst MAC teams will be playing on the road – Kent State and Akron. I like investing against bad road teams. Get your picks into Woz.
10. Waiting to the end of the season to fire head coaches is so 2010’s We already have three so far this year – Mike Houston, East Carolina; Will Hall, Southern Miss and Mike Bloomgren, Rice. The average tenure of head coaches continues to shrink.
8. Boise State is the current favorite for the non Power 4 team to make the CFP. Behind the running of stud RB Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos are 6-1 with the only loss a close one to #1 Oregon (37-34). Keep this thing going and they could end up as high as 4 seed. For Go Jumbo they will face a not that bad, 5-3 San Jose State. For the record, BSU is 5-1 ATS.
9. MACtion will be in full swing for Go Jumbo. If you get there Wednesday (I’m looking at you Woz) two of the worst MAC teams will be playing on the road – Kent State and Akron. I like investing against bad road teams. Get your picks into Woz.
10. Waiting to the end of the season to fire head coaches is so 2010’s We already have three so far this year – Mike Houston, East Carolina; Will Hall, Southern Miss and Mike Bloomgren, Rice. The average tenure of head coaches continues to shrink.
11. Wondering if Oregon would need to adjust to playing in the Big Ten. Not only did the Ducks beat Ohio State but also has defeated its other four conference foes by a combined score of 138-32. Perhaps the Big Ten needs to adjust to playing Oregon. Can Wiscy give them a battle in Camp Randall during Go Jumbo? Should be a good one.
12. Just when it seemed that Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi was on the hot seat, he starts the season 7-0, Pitt’s best start since 1982. In what should be the biggest game of Go Jumbo (with Tennessee @ Georgia a close second), Pitt hosts Clemson with huge implications for the ACC title and the CFP.
13. Florida State is either really good or bad. With the pounding by Miami (FL) last week 36-14 the Noles will have their fifth losing season in the last seven. The other two season they went 10-3 and 13-1. Fortunately, you will be spare watching them during Go Jumbo. I wonder if bye would be favored.
12. Just when it seemed that Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi was on the hot seat, he starts the season 7-0, Pitt’s best start since 1982. In what should be the biggest game of Go Jumbo (with Tennessee @ Georgia a close second), Pitt hosts Clemson with huge implications for the ACC title and the CFP.
13. Florida State is either really good or bad. With the pounding by Miami (FL) last week 36-14 the Noles will have their fifth losing season in the last seven. The other two season they went 10-3 and 13-1. Fortunately, you will be spare watching them during Go Jumbo. I wonder if bye would be favored.
14. Speaking of Miami (FL) - Of the four remaining ACC teams with undefeated league records — Miami, Clemson, Pitt and SMU — only the Canes don’t face any of the other three in the regular season. The Canes will also be taking the week of during Go Jumbo. This is ridiculous, I'll talk to the selection committee this year about the schedule for next year.
Last week's emphasis away from the unders and towards the spreads paid off last week as I went 5-3 on the spread, 1-1 in the under and 0-1 on the NFL or 6-5 overall, a small profit but I need to get some more practice on the NFL.
For this week I’m looking at these angles:
1.Taking the favorites in ranked matchups: This week’s games are #4 Ohio State -3.5 @ #3 Penn State and #18 Pitt +7.5 @ SMU
Last week's emphasis away from the unders and towards the spreads paid off last week as I went 5-3 on the spread, 1-1 in the under and 0-1 on the NFL or 6-5 overall, a small profit but I need to get some more practice on the NFL.
For this week I’m looking at these angles:
1.Taking the favorites in ranked matchups: This week’s games are #4 Ohio State -3.5 @ #3 Penn State and #18 Pitt +7.5 @ SMU
2. .The Bettors Guide tracks team matchups ATS since 2005: This week’s candidates are TCU -3.0 @ Baylor. TCU is 13-4-0 ATS vs the Bears; Buffalo -1.0 @ Akron. Buffalo is 13-4-0 ATS vs the Zips; New Mexico -7.5 vs Wyoming. UNM is 13-6-0 vs Wyoming; Arkansas +7.0 vs Mississippi. Arkansas 15-4-0 vs Mississippi; and Tennessee -16.5 vs Kentucky. The Vols are 15-4-0 ATS vs Kentucky
3.The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap: This weeks candidates are Minnesota -3.0 @ Illinois; Baylor -3.0 vs TCU; UTEP -3.0 vs Middle Tennessee; UConn -7.5 vs Georgia State; and New Mexico -7.5 vs Wyoming;
4.Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites are just 45% ATS since 2020 Results: This week’s candidates are Navy -10.5 @ Rice; Toledo -9.0 @ Eastern Michigan and Mississippi State -18.0 vs UMass.
3.The Bettors Guide also catalogs scores from last year to see if there are any revenge games on tap: This weeks candidates are Minnesota -3.0 @ Illinois; Baylor -3.0 vs TCU; UTEP -3.0 vs Middle Tennessee; UConn -7.5 vs Georgia State; and New Mexico -7.5 vs Wyoming;
4.Teams that lose by 14+, who are then 7+ point favorites are just 45% ATS since 2020 Results: This week’s candidates are Navy -10.5 @ Rice; Toledo -9.0 @ Eastern Michigan and Mississippi State -18.0 vs UMass.
5. Underdogs in SEC conference games are 21-9 ATS so far this season including 16-5 ATS the last four weeks. This week we have 5 SEC games; Arkansas +7.0 vs Mississippi; Vanderbilt +7.0 @ Auburn, Florida +16.5 vs Georgia (Neutral site) UMass +18.0 vs the other MSU and Kentucky +16.5 @ Tennessee
6. Here’s some others to consider: As a double-digit favorite, Oregon HC Dan Lanning is 23-1 SU and 16-8. Those include 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when the game is played on the road. The Ducks are 14.5 point favorites @ Michigan.
7. Conflicting trends as it relates to Ohio State at Penn State. Penn State hasn't defeated Ohio State outright since 2016 - seven straight wins for the Buckeyes.
Dating back to 2002, Ohio State is 18-4 SU versus the Nits. And, as a home underdog, Penn State has lost six consecutive game SU with their last win coming back in 2016 against … Ohio State.
Yet, when Ohio State faces a top-10 teams; they are 6-14-1 ATS, covering just two of their last 10 games in the spot.
6. Here’s some others to consider: As a double-digit favorite, Oregon HC Dan Lanning is 23-1 SU and 16-8. Those include 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when the game is played on the road. The Ducks are 14.5 point favorites @ Michigan.
7. Conflicting trends as it relates to Ohio State at Penn State. Penn State hasn't defeated Ohio State outright since 2016 - seven straight wins for the Buckeyes.
Dating back to 2002, Ohio State is 18-4 SU versus the Nits. And, as a home underdog, Penn State has lost six consecutive game SU with their last win coming back in 2016 against … Ohio State.
Yet, when Ohio State faces a top-10 teams; they are 6-14-1 ATS, covering just two of their last 10 games in the spot.
With all that in mind here are this week's picks:
1. Oregon -14.5 @ scUM - The last time a top 3 team come to the Big Sh!thouse, the champions of Washtenaw County got spanked 31-12. The Ducks will do better than that. Doesn't matter who starts for QB for scUM, Oregon will stifle him.
2. Vanderbilt +7.0 @ Auburn - – Vandy QB Diego Pavia was able to beat Auburn while playing for New Mexico State last year, he can do it again at Vandy. Don't out think it. Vandy is the underdog, just take them. In fact you may want to look at the money line at +210
3. Air Force +23.5 @ Army - Headed down to South Beach Command this weekend to see Chris. This one is for him. Also, Since 2005, as underdogs of more than three touchdowns, service academies have gone a 19-5-1 ATS. And, FBS road underdogs of 21+ with a total of less than 45 have gone 52-33-2 ATS.
1. Oregon -14.5 @ scUM - The last time a top 3 team come to the Big Sh!thouse, the champions of Washtenaw County got spanked 31-12. The Ducks will do better than that. Doesn't matter who starts for QB for scUM, Oregon will stifle him.
2. Vanderbilt +7.0 @ Auburn - – Vandy QB Diego Pavia was able to beat Auburn while playing for New Mexico State last year, he can do it again at Vandy. Don't out think it. Vandy is the underdog, just take them. In fact you may want to look at the money line at +210
3. Air Force +23.5 @ Army - Headed down to South Beach Command this weekend to see Chris. This one is for him. Also, Since 2005, as underdogs of more than three touchdowns, service academies have gone a 19-5-1 ATS. And, FBS road underdogs of 21+ with a total of less than 45 have gone 52-33-2 ATS.
4. Kansas State -13.5 @ Houston - Houston's offense is crap. They have been shoutout twice, held to 7 once and have inly scored more than 20 points once (to a pathetic Rice squad). Kansas State is 7-1 with yes on the CFP. The offense is humming. The Wildcats are averaging 32.8 PPG and have only been held to fewer than 29 points once.
5. Duke +20.5 @ Miami (FL) – The Canes are blowing everyone in their path – right. Not so fast my friend. When playing twasm with half a life they have won by 7, 1 and 4 points. Duke has enough defense to kep this one close. And do you think this game has a little extra meaning for Manny Diaz?
6. Minnesota -2.5 @ Illinois – Illinois is beat up after the Oregon game, Minnesota defense is playing well. Revenge game for the Goofers. HC Big Bert, at Illinois is 8-15-1 ATS at home, including 5-11-0 in conference play.
I got a bad beat with Green Bay last week. Let’s see if we can get the NFL picks going.
7. Denver +9.5 @ Baltimore –Ravens have bottom 10 defense and are dinged up in the secondary. Broncos can contain Derrick Henry. Look ahead game fro Baltimore with Cincinnati up on Thursday.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more, here is the 2024 Week 10 Bettors Guide:
5. Duke +20.5 @ Miami (FL) – The Canes are blowing everyone in their path – right. Not so fast my friend. When playing twasm with half a life they have won by 7, 1 and 4 points. Duke has enough defense to kep this one close. And do you think this game has a little extra meaning for Manny Diaz?
6. Minnesota -2.5 @ Illinois – Illinois is beat up after the Oregon game, Minnesota defense is playing well. Revenge game for the Goofers. HC Big Bert, at Illinois is 8-15-1 ATS at home, including 5-11-0 in conference play.
I got a bad beat with Green Bay last week. Let’s see if we can get the NFL picks going.
7. Denver +9.5 @ Baltimore –Ravens have bottom 10 defense and are dinged up in the secondary. Broncos can contain Derrick Henry. Look ahead game fro Baltimore with Cincinnati up on Thursday.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more, here is the 2024 Week 10 Bettors Guide:
2024_week_10.xlsx |
Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th (that's 2 weeks away) at the Westgate SuperBook