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2025 Bowl Season Part 11 - The Top Two Draft Picks in a Rematch

1/9/2026

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PictureIt's the top 2 picks in this years NFL draft
Indiana -3.0 vs Oregon – it’s the two first picks in this year’ NFL draft playing in the biggest games of their careers. When two high profile match up, it’s always a big deal. When two quarterbacks at the top of their game and are projected to be the first and second overall picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, anticipation increases twofold. Take two elite quarterbacks and square them off for a spot in the National Championship game? Fireworks.

Both of these teams are coming off defensive masterclasses in their quarterfinal wins. Oregon shutout Texas Tech 23-0 in the Orange Bowl. A few hours later, Indiana dominated Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl. Indiana ripped through Bama like it was some low-level MAC team fighting for an early December bowl slot. Take that SEC. Oregon beat the Red Raiders like it was a light scrimmage. NIL money can get you just so far.


PictureThe Hoosiers DL dominated
The Ducks and Hoosiers played once already this season. Back on October 11, Oregon was a 7-point home favorite against Indiana, but Cignetti’s team ended up winning by 10. It's tough to beat the same team twice in a season. Am I right Georgia?

Round one wasn’t the prettiest offensive performance for Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana offense.  Mendoza threw for only 215 yards with a touchdown and a pick. But Indiana’s defense picked Dante Moore off twice. They also held the Ducks to 2.7 yards per carry, making the Oregon offensive line look slow and weak.

Fernando Mendoza vs Dante Moore may get the headlines but the real matchup is in the trenches. Indiana is among the best in the country, but will be without edge rusher Stephen Daley, who was lost to an injury during the Big Ten title game.

Oregon is also down in RB Jordan Davison (broken clavicle). He led the Ducks with 15 rushing touchdowns, and he's been their leading rusher in both Playoff wins thus far

PictureIndiana just finds a way to win
No one can match Indiana's production on both sides of the ball, as it has the No. 2 scoring defense and No. 3 scoring offense, and no other FBS team ranks in the top five of both. The Hoosiers have allowed two touchdowns, total, over their last four games, and they've given up a rushing touchdown in just one of their last nine games.

​One area where Indiana will hold the edge is in the red zone. The Hoosier defense leads the nation in red zone touchdown rate allowed (26%). Oregon’s offense ranks 47th. 


Indiana isn't the type of team that hurts itself. Just one team in all of college football commits fewer penalty yards per game, while just two teams in the country commit fewer turnovers per game. 

Despite the Hoosiers entering the College Football Playoff Semifinal undefeated and led by a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, some still hesitate to call them the best team in the country. That skepticism comes from the logo on the helmet, not the product on the field. It’s just clear that Cignetti and his staff are fantastic when it comes to getting the players prepared, and nobody on this Hoosiers team is scared of the moment.  It’ll be close, but Mendoza & Co. get the job done.​

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No one can match Indiana's production on both sides of the ball, as it has the No. 2 scoring defense and No. 3 scoring offense, and no other FBS team ranks in the top five of both. The Hoosiers have allowed two touchdowns, total, over their last four games, and they've given up a rushing touchdown in just one of their last nine games.

Indiana isn't the type of team that hurts itself. Just one team in all of college football commits fewer penalty yards per game, while just two teams in the country commit fewer turnovers per game. 

Despite the Hoosiers entering the College Football Playoff Semifinal undefeated and led by a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, some still hesitate to call them the best team in the country.

​That skepticism comes from the logo on the helmet, not the product on the field. It’s just clear that Cignetti and his staff are fantastic when it comes to getting the players prepared, and nobody on this Hoosiers team is scared of the moment.  It’ll be close, but Mendoza & Co. get the job done.

PictureHe struggles with the snap
Oregon Team Total Under 24.5 (+105) - Oregon's offense was not that impressive against Texas Tech. The Ducks moved the ball pretty well, but there were too many self-inflicted mistakes, largely coming from Moore’s inability to catch a snap, the center’s inability to get him the snap, and mesh points being messy, and the ball ending up on the deck.

Dante Moore has been really good at times, and not so good at others. Against Indiana the first time, it was not as good. He was pressured 20 times (a season-high) and took six sacks – 40% of his entire season’s total.

This is an Indiana defense capable of crushing any opposing offense’s bones to dust. The suffocating weight of an inevitable pass rush is enough to force coordinators to overthink, even ones as sharp as Will Stein.

I don’t see a two-touchdown jump in production for the Ducks.

PictureIn a tight game Mendoza will keep passing
Fernando Mendoza Passing Yards over 208.5 - The Heisman winner has fallen short of this prop twice in his last three games and six times in 14 games this season. Then again, those two times in the last three games were both laughable routs, and the closest game in which Mendoza fell short of this prop was the 27-14 season opener against Old Dominion. 

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Mendoza topped this prop against Iowa, Oregon, Penn State, and Ohio State, averaging 222 passing yards in those four games against quality defenses.

​This game should be close enough to allow Mendoza to flex his muscles a bit.

I went 1-1 yet again last night brining the season total to 37-36

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2025 Bowl Season Part 10 - Two Cinderellas Meet

1/7/2026

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PictureChambliss ran circles around the Dawg defense
Miami (FL) -3.0 vs Mississippi - There are four teams left standing and three of them didn’t even play in their conference championship games. The trend of first round byes losing continues as seven of the eight have now lost.

This game was supposed to be a powerhouse showdown between Ohio State and Georgia -  teams that won three of the last four national titles. But Ole Miss upset Georgia behind a brilliant performance from QB Trinidad Chambliss who ran circles around the Georgia defense.  He looked and played like a combination of Fran Tarkenton, Johnny Manziel, and Michael Vick. Georgia didn't lay a glove on Chambliss failing to come up with any sacks and just three tackles for loss.

The thought of Miami reaching the national championship game after its questionable inclusion in the College Football Playoff should make Notre Dame fans and BYU fans livid. Entering the Cotton Bowl as 9.5-point underdogs,  the Canes notched the biggest point-spread upset in the 12-year history of the College Football Playoff.

PictureThe Cane DL Dominated Ohio State
They did it behind a defensive line was more physical and outplayed Ohio State’s offensive line. It got consistent pressure on OSU QB Julian Sayin, sacking him five times and shutting down the run game, limiting the BuckNuts to 45 total rushing yards. So far in the playoffs, Miami’s defense has only allowed 17 points.

The defense has had to do all the work because the offense has struggled. QB Carson Beck has only thrown for 241 yards against the Aggies and Buckeyes. The Canes have only scored three offensive touchdowns in two games and only have four drives with at least 50 yards of offense.

This game will come down to whether Miami’s defense can contain Chambliss. They should, as they harassed another elusive QB in Texas A&M's Marcel Reed in the first round, sacking him seven times. 

Miami will also have to make sure Beck doesn’t have one of his bonehead turnover games. He threw six interceptions in Miami's two losses, throwing just four in the other ten games. Miami's offense might not look outright good in this matchup, but it should look better than it has yet to in the Playoff. This is the worst defense it has faced thus far.

I’ll take the Canes defense to carry the day again and Beck playing just good enough to win.
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Miami (FL) vs Mississippi 1st half under 24.5 - I’ll also take the first half under. The Hurricanes have been ultra-careful in the first two playoff games, Miami has hit the 1st half under in 13 of their last 14 games 

I went 1-1 on Saturday to being the season total to 36-35.  Texas State let up a TD with 9 seconds left in the 1st half  for the loss - arrrgh

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2025 Bowl Season Part 8 - The Regular bowl Season comes to and End

1/2/2026

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PictureBoth Teams like to run - Texas State just does it better
​The 2025 Bowl Season comes to an end today. All that will be left is the playoffs. 

Here's my final bowl picks:

Texas State -9.5 1st half vs Rice - Rice plays in a bowl due to thier APR Score and not anything that they’ve done on the field. The Owls went 5-7 and are far removed from a quality football team. This is the 12th year in a row that the Owls will end the season with a losing record.
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Texas State HC GL Kinne was a hot commodity in the Coaching Carousel but decided to stay in San Marcos as the Bobcats will be moving to the Pac 12 next year.

Both teams like to run the ball. Rice was 6th in rushing attempts while Texas State sits just outside the Top 25. Texas State does a far better job at it. The Bobcats average 5.11 Yards per attempt (20th) while Rice averaged 4.11 YPA (88th).

The run did open up the pass, as Texas State was one of only seven teams in the nation with a completion rate over 70%. QB Brad Jackson completed over 71% of his passes with an 18/7 TD/INT ratio. He is also the team’s second-leading rusher with 692 yards and the team in TDs with 16.

Rice will be playing without its starting QB Chase Jenkins who hit the transfer portal. The quarterback is the most important player in any offense, but that gets magnified in an option offense.

Kinne demands a level of buy-in from his roster. Just two players are expected to transfer, neither of whom started a game beyond Week 6.
The line has ballooned to Texas State -17.5 for the game. Rather than risk a back door cover against backups in the second half I’ll take Texas State with a full roster and better team to cover the 1st half spread of 9.5.

PictureIt's your last chance to see Blake Horvath
​Navy -7.5 vs Cincinnati – This will be your last chance to see Navy QB Blake Horvath. The senior signal caller led the Middies to consecutive 10-win seasons and won the Commander-in-Chief Trophy in back-to-back years. What made him so dynamic in this Navy offense is that he could actually throw the ball. On top of rushing for 1,147 yards and 15 touchdowns, Horvath also threw 1,472 yards and 10 more scores.

Cincinnati ended the season in a tailspin. The Bearcats lost four consecutive games to end the year failing to cover in all four. Defense was a real issue. The Bearcats allowed too many yards on first and second downs and then couldn't get off the field enough on third and fourth downs.

Against run-heavy teams, Cincinnati crumbled. Utah rushed for 267 yards, and BYU went for 265. 
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The season ending tailspin has led to a ton of opt outs. The Bearcats are also losing five  starers on defense including virtually everyone in the secondary. More devastating is the star QB Brendan Sorsby who hit the transfer portal and is about to get a big payday. Sorsby ended the season with 2,800 yards and 27 TDs.

It’s Navy, opt outs and transfers don’t happen. They will be at full strength. I’ll take a the Middies to run the ball down the throat of Cincinnati, that struggled against the run even at full strength, and missing its best player on offense.

I went 1-2 yesterday brining the overall record to 35-34


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2025 Bowl Season Part 7 - College Football clears the way for the Playoff Games

1/1/2026

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PictureThe Texas Tech defense has dominated all year
Happy New Year Everyone. The Doofus family had a great 2025 with a new addition and an engagement. Here's hoping 2026 is just as enjoyable. 

Of course, the New Year always starts out on a joyous note with Bowl games galore. This year, New Year's Day slate is cleared to have just Playoff Games starting with:

​Texas Tech ML vs Oregon (+100) – Texas Tech is in uncharted waters. They haven’t finished a season ranked in the Top 25 since 2009. This is their fourth straight bowl appearance under Joey McGuire, but those games have been the Liberty, Independence, and Texas Bowls. Not exactly a CFP-level bowl game. This is the first time since 1955 they have won a conference title (the defunct Border Conference) outright.

They did it exploiting the portal and NIL money. They didn’t look for an experienced HC when the Joey McGuire was hired. His reputation was as a recruiter. He was the associate head coach at Baylor under Matt Rhule and Dave Aranda, but also just a position coach. Give Texas Tech credit because in the transfer portal era, you need a closer as a head recruiter and that’s precisely what McGuire is.

And the formula has worked. They lost only one game this year and that was when they were missing their starting QB. The defense is elite. The Red Raiders were the only team in the nation to allow under 1,000 rushing yards. Not only that but they were the only team to allow under 900 rushing yards. Their 39 sacks is tied for sixth and their 31 takeaways lead the nation. They are a top-10 defense on third down. 

It’s strength-on-strength here, as Texas Tech’s No. 1 run defense  goes against Oregon’s No. 1 rushing offense. The Ducks average 5.9 yards per carry, second only to Utah on the season. But it was held to just 81 yards on the ground by Indiana.

Oregon has struggled with elite defenses. Against Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Ducks averaged just 143 passing yards per game in those three games. Indiana was able to stifle the Duck running game, pin their ears back and go after QB Dante Moore. He was sacked six times.
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I’ll take Texas Tech and their defense to win the game outright.


PictureIndiana sacked Moore six time - Texas Tech can match that
Texas Tech vs Oregon 1st half under 24.5 (-139) – Games have tended to go under during bowl season as teams are playing conservative and feeling each other out. Texas Tech is stingy in giving up points. They have allowed 20 points only twice this year (in a 26-22 loss to Arizona State and in a 43-20 win over Kansas State) but otherwise held its opponents to 10 or fewer six times, including in its last four games. That includes games against strong offenses like Utah (10 points) and BYU twice (seven each time). 

Tech has given up just 13 red-zone touchdowns all season, and Oregon's offense has struggled to convert scoring opportunities into points at times.

I also have slight concerns about Texas Tech's offensive also tends to struggle in the red zone failing to score a touchdown 32 times this year. They've also settled for 23 red-zone field goals this season, so I could see Oregon’s strong defensive front causing problems for Tech once the field is condensed.
​

PictureKirby is the master of rematches
​Money Line Parlay (a) Georgia over Mississippi and (b) Indiana over Alabama (+195) – For Georgia vs Ole Miss, we saw this game before. The Rebs had the Dawgs on the ropes, scoring a touchdown on their first five offensive possessions of the game, leaving UGA's defensive staff searching for adjustments. They dialed up the right buttons as they held Mississippi scoreless thereafter and the offense went on three back breaking drives, scoring 17 unanswered to pull out a 43-35 win.

This Bulldogs defense has now shown itself to be the vaunted front of years past, but this group has been nasty over the last month of the season. The last four opponents to play Georgia have failed to score more than 10 points.

Don’t overlook the coaching advantage. Lane Kiffin is gone with Charlie Weiss Jr on loan for the game. Georgia's Kirby Smart is arguably college football’s best coach, and has quite the record in rematches. This year, he shut Alabama down, 28-7, in the rematch; last year, Smart beat Texas twice, the second to clinch an SEC title; in 2021, he avenged an SEC Championship loss to Alabama with a 33-18 win over the Tide in the National Championship game. Even in consecutive years, Smart’s approach improved. Last year, he allowed 42 to Georgia Tech in a wild multi-overtime affair. This year, Tech managed nine points and 70 rushing yards. 

PictureThe Indiana Miracle continues with a Heisman Trophy winner
Indiana is the darling of college football for the second year in a row. They are 13-0, defeating Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and have this year’s Heisman trophy winner Fernando Mendoza.

Not even the most talented offenses in the country (Oregon, Ohio State) were able to overcome the vicious Indiana defensive front. The Hoosiers held both to a single offensive touchdown (Oregon scored its second touchdown on a pick-six) and completely overwhelmed both offensive lines.

Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin took a season-high five sacks, while Oregon QB Dante Moore took six, almost half of his season total.

Alabama’s offense can be shelved by elite defensive lines. It floundered for just seven points against Georgia, a game the Tide rushed for negative three yards. Alabama has nearly abandoned the run game after following that up with 28 rushing yards against Oklahoma.
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With no threat in the run game, Indiana pass-rushers like Mario Landino and Rolijah Hardy can pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has taken 10 sacks in the Tide's last three games (Auburn, Georgia, Oklahoma) and another 12 in games against Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Missouri.

I went 2-1 last night to bring the overall record to 34-32


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2025 Bowl Season Part 6 - 2025 Goes out with a Bang

12/31/2025

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PictureIowa excels at defending the explosive play
2025 goes out with a bang as the CFP playoffs getting back into gear and four other intriguing Bowl matchups, including:

Iowa +3.0 vs Vanderbilt – Vandy has the better record and the Heisman runner up QB but the Hawkeyes happen to match up very well against the Commodores. Both teams like to move the chains and drain the clock.  Vandy ranks 118th in plays run this season per game, while the Hawkeyes rank 130th in offensive snaps per contest.

The Hawkeyes rank in the top 20 yards allowed, forcing opponents into long drives that end in field goals. The Hawkeyes are extremely strong against the run concepts the Vandy offense likes to run. Vanderbilt loves to set up the explosive, but this is an Iowa defense ranked in the Top 10 in defending explosive plays. Everything Iowa does well on defense directly challenges what Vanderbilt needs to succeed.

Yes the Iowa offense is below average but Vandy’s defense has given up yards all season, ranking in the bottom quartile in many key metrics.

In a game that could come down to special teams, this is an are that Iowa has, and historically does, succeed.

I’ll take the points in what should be a game that comes down to the final minutes.
. 

PictureDarian Mensah "resigned" with Duke
Arizona State vs Duke over 47.5 - Michigan was hot for ASU HC Kenny Dillingham, but the was jerking them around to get a raise. It’s GRRRREAATT!

This is another bowl game with significant opt outs and injuries. Arizona State fielded a sound defense but that unit takes a hit without its top player, cornerback Keith Abney II. His absence will be felt against a great quarterback in Darian Mensah (3,646 passing yards, 30 touchdowns to 5 interceptions). The Sun Devils will also be without leading tackler Keyshaun Elliot, while third-leading tackler Myles Rowser continues to weigh his decision after declaring for the NFL Draft.

Duke scored 34 points per game, so the Blue Devils should find the end zone against a depleted defense. 

Dukes defense this year has made Swiss cheese look like a brick. Duke’s defense will be without arguably its two best players. Chandler Rivers is an NFL corner and has five more PBUs than any other player on the roster, whereas Vincent Anthony Jr. leads the team in sacks (7.5) and is second in pressures (31).

I’ll take the over as two depleted defenses keep the scoreboard spinning. 

PictureOhio State opens up the passing game when the playoffs start
Money Line Parlay, Texas over Michigan, Utah over Nebraska, Ohio State over Miami (FL) (+100) – Texas’s roster may have been devastated by opt outs but the good news is that  QB Arch Manning will play today.  He’s without second-leading receiver DeAndre Moore but does retain explosive threats in Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone.

That should be enough to outscore a Michigan offense that has struggled all year.

Utah’s Kyle Whittingham retired, then unretired, entered the portal to sign with Michigan. Not sure how that affects the Utes motivation but the running game is still too much for the Huskers. Utah ranks fifth in the FBS at 41.1 PPG. It has scored 33 or more points in eight of 12 games this year and 31 in two others. Nebraska closed the year by giving up 37 points to Penn State and 40 points to Nebraska.
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Miami’s QB Carson Beck can be mistake prone and is facing an elite defense in Ohio State. The Bucknuts tend to go to their outstanding receiver corp when the playoff start. Finally, I trust Ryan Day of Mario Cristobal when it comes to clutch coaching decisions. 

​I went 2-1 last night to bring the season record to 32-31. 

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2025 Bowl Season Part 5 - Lots of Opt Outs and Injuries

12/30/2025

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PictureCoastal's offense took a huge step backwards under Hudson
La Tech vs Coastal Carolina Under 49.5 – Coastal’s offense is in the 100’s in virtually every metric and especially poor with the pass. It’s a bad offense that is pretty one-dimensional. They lean on the run which is conducive to the under as it keeps the clock running.

The offense took a big hit when starting QB Samari Collier went down with a season ending injury and replaced by backup Tad Hanson. In the four games Collier started, Coastal averaged 42.3 points per game (3-0 in games he also finished). Under Hudson, the Chants were held under 14 points six times, including being shut out 38-0 by East Carolina and held to 13 points against FCS Charleston Southern, which went 5-7.

Coastal is also missing it’s two starting tackles who have opted out.

La Tech will also be starting a backup QB with Trey Kukuk starting just his third game of the season after an injury to the Bulldogs’ starter, Blake Baker.  Kukuk likes to run, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and finished the regular season as the team’s second-leading rusher and leader by yards per carry.

With both teams unable to pass and not very explosive, I’ll take the under.

PictureJoey Aguilar will get plenty of chances downfield
Tennessee vs Illinois Over 61.5 - The offenses will be the best units on the field here. Both are explosive. The Vols are 16th in the nation in EPA per play (0.151), while the Illini are 25th (0.112). Also, the offenses are much closer to full strength than the defenses.

Tennessee’s defense loves to give up big plays through the air. They were hit for over 300 yards four times, and over 250 yards four other times. That led to the firing of their DC after five years.

 Illinois defense was shredded (43 points allowed) in three games against ranked opponents in ‘25. Also, this unit ranked No. 128 nationally in pass defense success rate, allowing Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar plenty of opportunities for shots downfield. 

It's two explosive offenses against porous pass defenses. I'll grab some popcorn and take the over. 

PictureJayden Maiava will be without his three top receivers
USC vs TCU 1st half under 28.5 – TCU will be without star QB Josh Hoover, who will be one of the hottest commodities in the transfer portal. They will go with an experienced QB in Ken Seals who had 22 starts at Vanderbilt. Seals is mediocre at best and not a game changer. The Horned Frogs' top receiver, Jordan Dwyer (54 catches, 730 yards), is also out with a foot injury.

USC will have its star QB Jayden Maiava but he will be missing his three best receivers in Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane, Lake McRee. Lemon and Lane are surefire NFL players who with starting TE McRee combined for 158 receptions, 2,351 yards, and 19 touchdowns.

With both passing offenses taking hits I’ll rely on the running game to make the difference. USC is the much better rushing team. The Trojans were 15th in the nation in Rush EPA per play during the regular season, while the Horned Frogs were 74th.

With both teams adjusting to their depleted rosters and USC hitting the ground game, I’ll take the 1st half under

On Saturday I went 1-2 to bring the season record back to break even at 30-30

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2025 Bowl Season Part 4 - A full roster of games today

12/27/2025

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PictureAhmad Hardy is what makes the Mizzou offense go
It’s a day full of college football with eight games starting at 11:00 with Pitt vs East Carolina and ending with a 9:16 kickoff for Houston vs LSU.

Here are my favorite picks:
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Missouri -4.0 vs Virginia – You got to wonder how good Virginia really is. They were playing for a spot in the CFP. All they had to do was beat an unranked average Duke team in the ACC championship game and they were in. They failed.  

Missouri will be without starting QB Beau Pribula but backup Matt Zollers has three games as a starter under his belt. And it wasn’t Pribula that made the Tiger offense go. That would be star RB Amhad Hardy. Hardy is 68 yards away from the all time Mizzou rushing record. Expect the coaching staff to feed him the ball to get the record.

Hardy forced 86 missed tackles this season which sets up well against a Virginia defense which struggles with broken tackles,

Missouri won games behind a defense that was border line elite and should easily contain the Cavaliers offense.

Missouri is bigger, deeper, and better than Virginia. The Tigers are also 9-1 against the spread under Drinkwitz when playing as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. I’ll take the Tigers to cover.

PictureBert Emanuel Jr was pitiful at CMU
San Diego State Team Total Under 21.5 vs North Texas - North Texas capped off a historic season with an American Championship appearance and winning 10 games for the first time in program history. And with success comes turnover as HC Eric Morris departed for Oklahoma State, DC followed Morris to Stillwater and OC Jordan Davis was hired by East Carolina.
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When former Kent State HC came to San Diego, expectations were that he would implement a high scoring Flash Fast type offense. Quite the opposite. SDSU went 9-3 behind a run heavy offense and Mountain West leading defense. And that success led to Aztec DC Rob Aurich getting poached by Nebraska.

The SDSU pass offense was dreadful finishing in the bottom 25. Now starting QB Jayden Denegal will be out with a season ending injury handing the reins to former Central Michigan QB Bert Emanuel Jr.  Emaunuel has a pitiful career record with a completion rate of 53.3% for his 60 career pass attempts despite appearing in 32 games. Emanuel is also dealing with a leg injury that kept him out of the season finale against New Mexico.

There’s little in this matchup to keep North Texas defenders honest. Expect UNT to play downhill and force the ball into Emanuel’s hands.

Over the last 6 weeks of the season, SDSU has averaged 19 points per game and now faces the best defense yet without its starting QB. They will struggle to get over 21 points today.

The day ends up with a night cap game of:


PictureMichael Van Buren will lead the depleted LSU roster
Houston -1.5 vs LSU - It was a disastrous season for LSU, which now awaits the Lane Kiffin Era. LSU’s lineup looks nothing like the team we saw all season, LSU’s roster is depleted. This isn’t an exaggeration. The Tigers are missing most of their defensive corps.

The Tigers will be without their two best players in the secondary (Mansoor Delane, AJ Haulcy), three impact linebackers (Whit Weeks, West Weeks, Harold Perkins), and the top pass rusher (Jack Pyburn).Add to that, starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is out as well. The Tiger offense will rely on backup QB Michael Van Buren Jr., who’s making only his fourth career start.

LSU is also missing receivers and offensive linemen who played important roles. With the starting quarterback out, key receivers missing, a shuffled offensive line and most of the defense replaced, it’s tough to imagine a worse situation for a bowl game.

Houston’s defense is mostly intact after ranking in the mid 20’s in most metrics. This gives them a big edge against a backup quarterback, makeshift offensive line and limited skill players.

That’s not even considering the other big mismatch, which is LSU’s defense against Houston’s offense. Houston’s offense will be full-go with quarterback Connor Weigman looking to build momentum after announcing his return to the program in 2026. The Cougars racked up at least 400 total yards in three of their last four games and are capable of scoring against a depleted LSU defense.

And don’t forget, Houston will playing in their home city in the NRG dome. Place should be rocking with Cougar faithful.

I went 2-1 last night (the lone loss was in OT) bringing the season record to 29-28
 ​

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2025 Bowl Season Part 3 - Back to College Football

12/26/2025

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PictureCentral loves to run the ball
Happy Boxing Day everyone. I hope your Christmas went well. Mine was full of family, friends and good times. Couldn't have been better. 

Well maybe just a little better. There was no college football. Plenty of NFL action as the Lions looked like they were throwing the game for a better draft pick and officially removed themselves from the playoffs. 

Today we return to college action with three games. Starting with:

Northwestern vs Central Michigan 1H under 21.5 -  Year 1 under HC Matt Drinkall was a huge success for Central Michigan. The Chippewas hadn't been bowling since the 2021 Sun Bowl, and Drinkall had them just one game away from appearing in the MAC Championship this season.

After spending half a decade in Army's offensive system Drinkall brought a run-first approach to Mount Pleasant. CMU rushed with the second-highest frequency of all non-service academy teams (66.5%)

CMU employs a bend-don't-break defensive philosophy. The Chippewas are also solid on first and second downs, frequently forcing opponents into third-and-long situations.

Northwestern had a great turnaround as well. After finishing last year at 4-8, they were expected to win 3.5 games and finish 13th in the Big Ten. They instead ended up 6-6 and in a bowl game.

The Cats are a carbon copy of CMU, solid defense and a heavy dose of runs on offense. They will bleed to clock to shorten the game. The 'Cats ran 64 plays per game (92nd nationally) at a rate of 30 seconds per play (131st).

QB Preston Stone was inconsistent with 14 TDs but 12 picks. That could spell trouble as CMU led the MAC in turnover margin.
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I would normally take the Chips and the 10.5 points but I put a bunch of points on Northwestern in my confidence pool and don’t want to be rooting against myself so I’ll take the first half under 21.5 as both teams feel each other out


PictureThe Gophers defense is susceptible to big plays
New Mexico ML vs Minnesota (+100) – I like taking strong group if five teams to cover when playing mediocre Power 4 teams.

Minnesota has a young quarterback, injured running backs, uninspiring wide receivers, a terrible offensive line, and a bad defense that allowed far too many crippling big plays. Minnesota also struggles on third and fourth down, ranking 91st in the nation in that area. They are lucky to be bowling this year.
The Gophers were also dreadful away from Minneapolis, losing all five games by an average margin of 24.4 points. They weren’t even competitive. 

New Mexico’s HC Jason Eck is a hot name in this years coaching carousel. In his first year with the Lobos he has them on the cusp of a 10 win season and just missed out on playing for the MWC championship.

​Statistically, New Mexico grades out better than Minnesota and The Lobos should also be close to full strength. Their main players are healthy, and the injury list is much shorter than Minnesota’s.

New Mexico comes into the game on a six game winning streak and would like nothing better than to keep that momentum going into next year.
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Minnesota’s PJ Fleck may be 6-0 in bowls but he gets first bowl loss today. 

PictureFIU has a poor defense
UT San Antonio -5.5 vs Florida International – When you compare FIU’s 7-5 record to UTSA’s 6-6 you would think these team are even;y matched. They are not. FIU’s strength of schedule ranks behind some FCS schools like Illinois State and North Dakota.

Despite facing such a weak schedule, the Panthers rank 104th in offensive, 103rd in rushing success, and 105th in rushing defense success rate. The Panthers allow the third-most yards before contact of any FBS team, giving up 2.87 line yards. They also generate little pressure without blitzing heavily.

That’s a bad matchup versus UTSA. The Roadrunners offensive line that ranks 29th in line yards and 34th in pressure rate allowed. Their backs also rank 20th in yards after contact in the ground game. The Roadrunners are also strong on early downs, ranking 18th.
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 The defense however is susceptible to explosive plays. They tied for 127th in plays of 30+ yards allowed with 34 and gave up 10 plays of 50 or more yards.

​Major defensive lapses cancelled out a lot of the good offensive production. But FIU is not built to attack this weakness. I’ll take the Roadrunners to cover

I went 1-0 on Christmas Eve to bring the overall record to 27-27. Time to get back on the winning side of the ledger


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2025 Bowl Season Part 2 - Never bet against Hawaii in Hawaii

12/24/2025

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PictureRolovich and Chang were teammates and roommates at Hawaii.
Hawaii ML vs California (-112) – It’s reunion time on the Islands. Cal made a bowl yet fired their HC anyways. While waiting on former Oregon DC Tosh Lupoi to take over, interim HC Nick Rolovich will lead the Bears for the Bowl. Nick is no stranger to the Isles as he was a QB and former HC at Hawaii. Not only that but Hawaii HC Tommy Chang and Rolovich were not only teammates at Hawaii but roommates as well.

And to top it all off, Cal star freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is also from Hawaii. Sagapolutele.  He battled his consistency this season, but when he was on, he was really on. In the season finale against SMU, he torched the Mustangs for 330 yards with four touchdowns and no picks. Over the last three games, with 922 passing yards and no picks.

​Hawaii has a freshman QB as well Micah Alejado. Alejado threw for 2,832 yards with 21 TDs with only nine picks over his 10 games played this season, helping Hawaii put up 31 or more points in six of their last eight games. He led the Mountain West by throwing for 283.2 YPG

PictureCal is a poor tackling team
Stanford constantly put pressure on Sagapolutele allowing 31 sacks over the season. That's probably the reason while Cal struggled on 3rd downs. The Bears were 86th in the nation in success on third and fourth downs (39.9%), while Hawaii is 35th on converting those plays (46.0%). 

Cal is a poor tackling team finishing in bottom-20 in tackle grading, an area that Hawaii will exploit.  Hawaii, as the offense ranked sixth nationally in creating broken and missed tackles

And in a game that could come down to special teams the Rainbows are much better. Hawaii kicker Kansei Matsuzawa was a Groza Award finalist connecting on 25 of 26 field goals in ’25.

And Spartan fans know that playing Hawaii in Hawaii is, lets just say difficult. Note that Hawaii was 4-1 in Oahu including a wins over Fresno State and Stanford. The same Stanford that beat Cal 31-10 that led to the firing of their HC. 

I'll take Hawaii at home. A win will bring overall record to breakeven. I went 2-1 yesterday putting the season at 26-27 so far. 

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2025 Bowl Season Part 1 - Time for Ohio to up their game

12/23/2025

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PictureLouisville curb stomped Kentucky 41-0
Bowl Season is underway and my confidence picks are off to a good start. I’ve only lost one with 5 points allocated. I currently sit at 7th in max remaining points - out of 68. It probably won’t hold but I’ll bask in the glory for now.

Time to make some investments in individual games. Over Championship week I went a devastating 1-4 to bring the overall record under .500 for the first time at 24-26. I blame the Thanksgiving caloric overload.

Plenty of games left to get back the winning side of the ledger, starting with:

Louisville -11.5 vs Toledo – The Rockets have a history of punching above their weight. They started the season with a close loss to an SEC team in Kentucky. But they are dealing with a huge turnover in the coaching staff. HC Jason Candle is leaving for UConn, DC Vince Kehres has left for Syracuse, while Co-DC Ross Watson has left for Iowa State. Add to that Special teams coordinator Stanton Weber has left for Kansas State. The staff is so depleted that several graduate assistants are expected to step up and play bigger roles.

With all the coaches leaving, the players are opting out too as well as their starting QB out with n injury. Freshman QB Kalieb Osborne will get the nod. He was unimpressive in his first start against Central Michigan

Louisville’s coaching staff is intact despite several programs trying to woo HC Jeff Brohm. Louisville is missing some key players too but has the depth that a MAC school does not. And by the way, Toledo may have lost to Kentucky, Louisville destroyed them 41-0 to finish out the regular season.

It’s a big spread but Toledo is just too depleted to keep up.

PictureCharlie Huff stayed a year at USM and then said his goodbyes before heading to Memphis
Western Kentucky ML vs Southern Miss (+102) – Unlike the first game, there are very few opt outs in this game. But there is one big one, Southern Miss HC Charlie Huff came from Marshall last year and did a one and sone at USM. He’s headed off to Memphis. This time though, his players that came from Marshall won’t be following him. Blake Andersen will be the HC for the Bowl. Andersen was HC at Utah State before getting canned for not reporting sexual misconduct by his players.

I’m going with Western Kentucky’s more explosive offense (USM’s longest running play was 27 yards) and better defense to win a tight game. WKU can also sustain drives ranking 32nd in 3rd down conversion, USM was 113th is getting of the field on third down.

UNLV vs Ohio Under 64.5– At the end of the regular season, Ohio suspended their HC Brian Smith. No reason was given at the time. Now we know. He was fired for banging a co-ed as well as putting a little extra in his coffee.

​At least he didn’t grab some knives and threaten his undergrad girl friend and get arrested. Got to step up your game Ohio. Michigan has set the bar. DC John Hauser will take the reins today.


These teams are very similar in one way. The defenses are next level bad. Defense is considered something to do while the offense gets a breather. That said the total has inched up just a bit too high.
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 UNLV has cashed the Under in four of its last five games and this game will be played at a methodical pace as neither team pushes the tempo (UNLV 89th in plays per minute, Ohio 101st).

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