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2023 March Madness

3/15/2023

Izzo sets the record!

Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for four teams no one else has a shot at the championship. One and done in bowls just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.

That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.

And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)

And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools

Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.

This year it’s going to be a hard rule to follow. Like last year, we had a great start to the year, we faded as the Big Ten season wore on, got bounced in the first game in the Big Ten tourney, ending up with a 7 seed. Back to back seasons back to back 7 seeds. But at least Izzo set the record for consecutive tourney appearances!

As much as I doubt Sparty can make it to the Final Four, the rule is the rule. I’ll just make sure I have several backup brackets, just in case.

Last year Kentucky went down as a 2 seed

2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to the Indianapolis.

3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. Can it happen again? Nah, the top seeds are 147-1 since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.

4. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. In 2022 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round. Same thing happened in 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. In 2019 the 2s all won their first game and the second round game, then went 2-2 in the third round. In 2018, the 2 seeds also won all their first game and then went 3-1 in the second round. No definitive trend there, what the heck, take a 2 seed to lose this round. And definitely feel free to drop one by the second round.

12's beat 5' all the time. Go for it!

5. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over #3 seeds. Last year the 3 seeds went 4-0 then 2-2 in the second round. In 2021, they went 3-1 in the first round but all three then advanced to the Sweet 16. There is some history for 14 over 3 upsets. In 2016, Stephen F Austin upset West Virginia. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. Put in a 14 seed for a little spice in your bracket. Don’t be afraid to take a 14 over a 3.

6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdon’t and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Wow! In 2021, Oregon State upset Tennessee. Last year the 12 seeds went 2-2 in the first game. In fact, 12 seeds win more third of the time (36%) So have a little fun - take a 12 (or two) to beat a 5!

While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (I see you over the Dook)

Launch a #1 or #2 seed in the second round

7. Kansas is in the tournament again. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year until 2019 when they were a #3 and again in 2021. I used to say they sucked in the Tourney. Prior to last year they made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened in 2018. In 2019, they won one game and then got launched by a #5 seed. In 2021, they got bounced in the second round by 6 seed USC. But the won it all last year and surprise!, they are a #1 seed again. Go ahead and bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks well before the Final Four.

8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last nine Tournaments, 22 of the 72 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. Last year it was 1 seed Baylor and 2 seed Auburn getting bounced. In 2021 it was 1 seed Illinois, and 2 seed Iowa failing to get past the first weekend. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.

Take one First Four team to advance

9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 96 Final Four teams, 77 (80%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed. Last tournament it was 8 seed North Carolina.

10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.6. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 22 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). Last year the total was 13. You are going to need at least one non #4 seed in your bracket.

11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble trams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.

12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was Notre Dame getting to the Round of 32.

13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 24 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.

14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be a little suspicious of Baylor and Kansas State. And Michigan Sate too. Uh oh

15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:

a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. I know, it violates rule 14 but the House Rule rules. There’s 7 of your 11.4 points right there.

b. In the South – Baylor is banged up and they violate rule 14. I’ll hold my nose and take Bama. They are just that good.

c. In the Midwest – It’s a coin flip between home town Houston and Texas. Heads, it’s Houston.

d. In the West – I can’t see Kansas going back to back so I’ll take the next best thing in UCLA.

16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 11. Almost spot on.

17. For my First Four upset I’ll take the winner of Pitt to take down Iowa State

18. For the 14 over 3 upset– I’ll go with the local upstart heroes, Kennesaw State to beat the X Men

19. or my 13 over 4 upset same bracket, Kent State beats the up and down Hoosiers. Lots of chatter about Furman over UVA too. What the heck, I'll take that one too.

20. In the same bracket I’ll take Charleston over San Diego State as my #12 over #5.

21. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? Michigan State over Marquette applies. And I’ll take Texas A&M over their hated rivals Texas too.

Put it all together and here is my 2021 winning bracket

Remember - the 2023 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 11th at the Westgate SUperBook

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Super Bowl LVII

2/12/2023

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First head coach with 10+ playoff wins with two franchises

You are aware of the story lines – first Super Bowl with two black quarterbacks, the first Super Bowl with two brothers to play against each other, Andy Reid having coached both teams, the list goes on and on. But that’s not why you are here. Those are interesting stories for the casual fan to bore you with at your Super Bowl party. You’re here to figure out where you are going to invest our hard earned cash. And in the process upstage that casual fan with more interesting tidbits with even better insights.

But before we get to the SB picks - a trivia question from the Nail. Which five universities have both a President and Super Bowl winning quarterback? Answer below. Great question.

Ok back to the Big Game. First, lets discuss the line. It opened at a pick and in some places the Chiefs favored by around 1.5, but both sharp and square money pushed it up quickly to Philly -1.5 where it has stayed pretty much since. The money has continued to flow towards Philly such that 67% of the bets amounting to 69% of the money is on the Eagles.

Love ya bro

Similarly, the Over/ Under opened at 48.5 and a ton of money came in on the over. The public loves the over (it’s bet the over 15 of the last 19 Super Bowls – going 6-9) but the sharps did too, pushing it all the way up to 51.0. However, the share is much less. 57% of the tickets amounting to 56% of the money bet is on the over. No surprise that the over is gaining that much attention. The Eagles and Chiefs had the #1 offenses in the NFL and AFC respectively.

They are the #1 seeds in their conferences too. That’s kind of a rarity really. It’s the first time since 2017 (Eagles vs Patriots) and only the seventh time since the field expanded to 12 teams back in 1990.

Are you having a tough time picking a team against the spread? Me too. Understandable, there are good cases to be made for both sides.

Forget Mahomes - Hurts has been the one playing poorly since being hurt

Why to bet the Chiefs – Much of the discussion over the last couple weeks has centered on the health of one of the two quarterbacks in the Super Bowl — Patrick Mahomes and his right ankle. But it’s the health of the Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and his injured right shoulder that may have more of an effect on the game. After coming back against the Giants in week 18 he was ineffective and then middling at best when he faced the Giants again in the playoffs.

Against the 49ers in the championship, he was down right pathetic (14/25 121 yards 0 TDs). His play has gone under the radar because the Eagles won both games with ease.

Statistically, the Eagles defense is outstanding but they have largely gone untested against elite pocket passers this season. And when they have been tested, the defense hasn’t held up to its elite standard.

Mahomes has the lowest sack rate because he can do this

Philadelphia faced just three top 10 QBR rated quarterbacks this season. In Week 12 against the Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers left with a hand injury but Green Bay yet still managed to put up 33 points. Dak Prescott put up another 40 on them in Week 16 and Jared Goff led Detroit to 35 in Week 1. Two of those three games were Eagles victories, but those came with a fully healthy Hurts.

Mahomes will challenge the Eagles secondary, and based on pass block win rate, the Chiefs will be able to slow down the Eagles’ dominant pass rush. Kansas City is first in pass block win rate and Mahomes has the lowest sack rate under pressure in the NFL this season.

It’s worth noting that Mahomes has faced four teams in the top 10 of pass defenses this season. He’s 4-0, averaging 287 yards passing with 10 touchdowns. He will be ready for the Eagles top-ranked pass defense.

Mahomes is taking what the defenses give against quarters defenses

The Eagles' pass rush is the best in football. However, Philadelphia has found the most success as a unit when deploying Quarters (four deep) coverage.
The strength of their four-man rush allows them to drop seven in coverage and prevent explosive plays. Knowing this, the Eagles leaned more into it as the year wore on. They lead the league this year with eight interceptions in Quarters, double the total of the next closest team.
For Mahomes, quarters coverage has in the past been his kryptonite. In 2021 his QBR against quarters defense was a meager 60.8, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. But he got markedly better in 2022 rising to 80.3 fifth best in the league.

The departure of Tyreek Hill took some getting used but starting in week 6, Mahomes has an 84.9 passing grade against Quarters, second best in the NFL.
The adjustment has been taking what the defense gives. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has done a nice job of isolating curl/flat defenders so that Mahomes can find an open receiver when defense make the slightest misstep. Finding Kelce when teams drop into quarters has been a large part of the offense. Taking what the defense gives you is a large part of the reason that, on passes of 20 or more yards, Mahomes posted the lowest clip of his career this season.

Pat likes the team color angle. Teams wearing white have gone an amazing 16-4 over the last 20 Super Bowls. The Chiefs will wear white this year.
It's hard to pick against the all-world contingent of Reid, Mahomes and Kelce, which sure seems like the contemporary edition of the once dominant Patriots trio of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Gronk.

Philly love to set you up with trips to one side and hit you with the weak side run.

Why to pick the Eagles - Games are decided in the trenches and the Eagles are far superior on both sides of the ball. The Eagles’ offense isn’t built around Jalen Hurts AJ Brown or Miles Sanders, it’s built around all-world center Jason Kelce.

The inside-zone run game is the foundation of Philadelphia’s offense. Including playoffs, they have run 69 more inside-zone plays than any other team in the league. Kelce is outstanding at getting physical in the trenches and open holes against defensive tackles. He is also fantastic at getting to the second level and maul linebackers to create lanes downfield.

In the Chiefs losses this season, the story was their inability to stop the run and difficulty with the other team's #1 receiver.

In their loss to Buffalo, the Bills ran for 125 yards on 31 carries while #1 wideout Stefon Diggs had 10 catches against the Chiefs secondary. In their loss to the Bengals in the regular season, the Bengals ran for 152 yards on 34 carries with Joe Burrow running 11 times for nearly 50 yards. Ja'Marr Chase had seven catches for nearly 100 yards in the game as well.

Ig you win the rushing game you win the Super Bowl

Jason Kelce and the Eagles have a vastly superior ground attack to both those teams. You can count on the Eagles to run the ball close to or exceeding 40 times in this game to wear down the Chiefs front four.

Only four teams in the league rushed for more yards per game than the Eagles (147.6). And, only two clubs finished with more running plays (544) than the Eagles. On the other hand, the Chiefs averaged 115.9 yards per game on the ground (20th in the NFL) and totaled just 417 running plays.

Why is this significant? The team that finishes the game with the most rushing yards owns a 41-14 record. Further, the club that winds up with the most running plays on Super Sunday owns a 47-7 mark.

Hanson Reddick leads the way with 16 sacks on the season

The trench battle also favors the Eagles on the defensive line, where they have arguably the deepest pass rush in the league. Four different players recorded at least 11 sacks for Philadelphia in the regular season, with Haason Reddick leading the way with 16, as the Eagles can generate tremendous pressure from both the edge (with Reddick, Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat) as well as along the interior (with perennial All-Pro Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave and veteran Ndamukong Suh).

Philadelphia can set the all-time record for sacks in the regular season and playoffs combined if they get to Mahomes on four occasions, which could very well happen. The Eagles' stalwart defensive front has a huge advantage over the Chiefs' blocking in the trenches

That pass rush will come in handy against Mahomes, who should be healthier than he was in the AFC Championship Game but still not as mobile as he would like against Philadelphia’s front. The Eagles’ defense is also capable of stifling teams on the back end as Darius Slay and James Bradberry have become one of the game’s best pairs of lockdown cornerbacks.

Carl Cheffers is not good news for the Chiefs

While the Chiefs are great at getting to the Super Bowl, this is their third trip in four years (and would be four straight if it weren’t for an OT loss to Cincinnati last year) they actually struggle in the Big Game. Outside of a fantastic fourth quarter comeback to San Francisco, they have been out scored 51-19 in the other seven quarters.

That plays right into the Eagles strategy of scoring early with the pass, then control the lead with the run and trust their pass rush. The Eagles have a point differential of plus-163 in the first half this season (including the playoffs) and have led by double digits 10 times.

Its unfortunate but who referees the game is important too. This year it’s Carl Cheffers which could hurt the Chiefs, The last time Cheffers refereed the Super Bowl: The eight penalties and 95 yards enforced against Kansas City, in the first half. Both were NFL records for a Super Bowl. The first half penalties resulted in six first downs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which was also an NFL record.

Cheffers has led the league in penalties called in two of the last three seasons, which includes this year with an average of 11.9 penalties per game for 123 yards. Cheffers likes to call offensive holding penalty, fifth overall this season. This could be a bigger issue for the Chiefs, who also rank fifth in offensive holding calls, and their 1.34 per game more than doubles when Cheffers in charge.

Cheffers is also one of the most frequent flag throwers on defensive pass interference, which he has no issues calling in the Big Game. In his two Super Bowl appearances, Cheffers and his crew have called five pass interferences when the NFL per-game average is below 1.3. This is bad news for the Chiefs, as they took the most defensive pass interference penalties this season.

If you like the Chiefs you might like the orange Gatorade bath too.

Finally, there’s the line movement. It swung towards the Eagles. The line has moved at least 1.5 points 18 times in Super Bowl history, and the team it moves towards is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS.

Add it all up and I’m still not totally convinced wither way. But I’m an old center at heart so I’ll with the Kelce in the green uniforms. It’s the last football game of the year (I’m not ready yet for the USFL) so it’s the last chance to invest. I’ll go with a Mega Bet on the Eagles and a Mini Mega on a praly of the Eagles and the Under. If the Eagles can run 30-40 times for the win, it should shorten the game and scoring chances. Mahomes dinking and dunking down the field should help too.

Now the beauty of the Super Bowl is that there are tons of prop bets too. You can bet every thing from the coin flip before the game to the color of the Gatorade after the game. You can make bets when the players are off the field at halftime too like which song will Rihanna sing first and whether she will propose to A$AP Rocky during the show (25/1).

You can make cross over bets too, bets on the Super Bowl and other sports playing at the same time such as: Woz is looking at - will the Flyers have more goals than Eagles TDs? Nick is wondering whether there will be more total goals in Leeds vs Man U vs FGs in the game. The Big Flippy is into NASCAR and is interested in whether the length of the first TD will exceed the number of cautions in the Daytona 500. I might take the TD prop on that one.

I'll take Jalen to score a TD

But, by far the most action is on the game itself. Here are the props I’ll invest in to add some spice to the game.

Will the points scored in the 2nd half exceed the 1st half? Yes -135. In the previous 36 Super Bowls, the second half is 23-12-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we're getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at -135

Will Mahomes throw a pick? – Yes -115. Mahomes is a great quarterback but he can play a little hero ball. In his two Super Bowls he threw not one but two picks in each game. In the loss to Cincinnati in last year’s playoff loss he threw a pick too. I’ll take him to throw one against the top ranked Philly secondary.

Any time TD scorer – Jalen Hurts -105. Philadelphia scored more than half (32 of 59) of the team's total touchdowns through the ground. And Hurts scored the majority of those! He found the end zone a whopping 13 times, more than any other rusher on the roster.

I'll take a flyer on a pick six too

Will both teams make a FG over 33.5 yards - No -115. Harrison Butker has made a 33-plus yarder in 7-of-15 games (47%) while Jake Elliott has made one in 6-of-18 (33%). Math alone has the chances at 64% no.

Will there be a pick 6? Yes +600. Defensive touchdowns have been abnormally common in the Super Bowl. We’ve seen 21 defensive TDs in 56 games, which means a 37.5% chance in any random Super Bowl.

Both Kelces to score a TD? Yes +20000. OK this one is just for fun. The case for Travis is a no brainer but his brother the center? Well, On October 5th, Nick Sirianni, was on “The Pat McAfee Show” talking about how he had to bribe Jason with a keg to bring him back this season, and how valuable he is to the team and so nimble he is on his feet.

Unprompted, he deadpanned that maybe he’d need to line Jason up eligible in the backfield and give him a couple carries or a screen pass sometime if it meant keeping him another year. Wouldn’t it be fun if he really did that! You will be the hit of the party if you call this one right.

Here's a full list of all the prop bets at the SuperBook.

sb_lvii_props.xls_[compatibility_mode].pdf
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Jalen Hurst aims to be the first player with #1 to win Super Bowl MVP

Here's some other tidbits to throw out at your friends during the lulls in the game.

Jalen Hurts is aiming to be the first quarterback in NFL history to win a Super Bowl while wearing No. 1 on his jersey. Most recently, Cam Newton wore the number back in Super Bowl 50, but he lost to Denver 24-10 victory.

This marks the 10th time that Mahomes has been listed as an underdog in his career. Kansas City owns a remarkable 7-1-1 ATS mark in the first nine opportunities, including six outright wins.

Andy Reid is the fifth head coach in NFL history to draw a Super Bowl matchup against his former team, with the previous four coaches to do so being Pete Carroll against the Patriots (2014), Jon Gruden against the Bucs (2002), Dan Reeves against the Broncos (1998), and Weeb Ewbank against the Colts (1968), and in those matchups, the returning coaches have yielded a record of 2-2.

Nick Sirrani is the 6th straight coach to make his Super Bowl debut against a SB veteran HC

The Chiefs will be looking to become the 7th AFC team since the merger in 1970 to win the Super Bowl outright as an underdog. In fact, the last three clubs in this role have picked up the victory, including the Broncos over the Panthers in Super Bowl 50 and the Ravens over the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII.

There’s only been 15 instances in which one head coach was making his Super Bowl debut versus a coach bearing Super Bowl experience. However, it’s now happened six years straight, highlighted by Doug Pederson, Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Bruce Arians, Zac Taylor, and now, Nick Sirriani all taking their first crack at it against coaches that previously reached the big game.

The Kansas City Chiefs have played in two Super Bowls with Mahomes at QB and they’ve started slow in both games. The club has only managed to score 16 total points in the first-half in their two outings versus the 49ers (10) and Buccaneers (6).

If you like the Chiefs to cover you might as well take the money line. Only one Super Bowl has be decided by one point – Super Bowl XXV in 1991 when the New York Giants defeated the Bills 20-19.

The NFC East has participated in 21 Super Bowls, the most among the eight divisions. The group also owns the best winning percentage, going 13-8 SU and 14-7 ATS.

And the answer to the trivia question:
Michigan (it wasn’t my question folks) – Ford and Brady
Delaware – Biden and Flacco
Miami (OH) - Benjamin Harrison and Big Ben
Navy – Carter and Staubach
Stanford - Herbert Hoover and Jim Plunkett (first Latino to win the Heisman). Mrs H knew this one

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2022 College Football Coaching Carousel

2/2/2023

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I wonder if he would still be married if he stayed retired the first time

The 2022 college football season is over with one ecstatic team (Georgia) plenty of happy teams (TCU) and a lot of teams that couldn't stand it one more year. Their guy had to go. So they headed out to the Carnival, bought a ticket on the Carousel and took a spin.

The Coaching Carousel version 2022 may have been down a bit from last year but, wow, did a lot of dominoes fall. It started with Wisconsin giving up on defensive wunderkind and interim head coach Jim Leonhard. Bucky then grabbed Luke Fickell from Cincinnati, who then nabbed Scott Satterfield from Louisville. The Cardinals went and got back alum Jeff Brohm from Purdue.

Another domino train started when Auburn fired Bryan Harsin and hired Hugh Freeze from Liberty. The Flames then poached Jamey Chadwell from Coastal Carolina.

Add in the usual taking high profile coordinators as well as a fired NFL coach, a high school coach, a former ESPN analyst and a former Investment Banker and it was a spicy year.

Here's my take on the 24 moves so far. You never know, the NFL might try a college coach again. If Saban couldn't do it and Rhule was a failure why they think our favorite whipping boy will do any better?

Team

Out with the Old

In with the New

Herm Edwards

Kenny Dillingham
OC Oregon

No more CEO hires. No more “Playoffs?” quotes and a nice parting gift of an NCAA investigation. The Forks went down the traditional path of hiring an up and coming coordinator. He worked wonders with Bo Nix last year. He’s got a great track record at Memphis, Auburn, Florida State and Oregon. He’s an alum but he’s very young (32) and has only one year of calling plays. There could be a steep learning curve but he has a huge upside.

Bryan Harsin

Hugh Freeze
HC Liberty

Harsin never quite fit in. He was on the hot seat from Day 1. Freeze was 39-25 (technically 0-25 given he had to vacate wins) in his five years as the head coach at Ole Miss. He resigned from Ole Miss, under the cloud of "pattern of misconduct" Liberty didn't seem to mind. He went 31-15 there. Auburn won't mind either. They like his 2-3 record versus Saban. Auburn returns to annual rankings, bowl games and a power in the SEC West.

Will Healy

Biff Poggi
AHC Michigan

WTF? Has Charlotte given up on football? They are joining the AAC next year but maybe it’s a head fake. Poggi's been a HC but it was at two Baltimore area high schools. He joined scUM as an assistant and near as I can his primary responsibility was to press Harbaugh’s khakis. He’s a 64 former investment banker who goes by “Biff”. This is the worst hire in the history of the Big Book of Guesses.

Jamey Chadwell

Tim Beck
OC NC State

Coastal has been an exciting, entertaining, offensive minded program for years. So when they needed a new HC, bringing in an experienced OC made sense. But this didn’t make sense. None of Beck's three Wolfpack offenses finished in the top half of the ACC, and two of this three offenses at Texas finished in the bottom half of the Big 12. Turn out the lights - the party’s over Chant fans.

Luke Fickell

Scott Satterfield
HC Louisville

Sometimes you do get a second chance. He came into the season on the hot seat and managed to get into a better situation. Satterfield would like you to forget those last four years at Louisville. He went 25-24 and never took the program to the next level in the ACC.

He does want you to remember when he was a superstar at Appalachian State where, after taking the program from the FCS to FBS, went 44-19 over his last four years and won three straight Sun Belt titles. That experience could help Cincinnati transition to the Big 12 but he hasn't had much success at the Power Five level.. The Bearcats streak of good hires comes to an end.

Karl Dorrell

Deion Sanders
HC Jackson State

It was the splashiest hire of the year if not the century. The Buffs went from one of the most uninspiring, least energetic programs to the flashiest, most talked about overnight. Sanders went 27-5 at FCS Jackson State, including an undefeated 2022 season. His ability to recruit high schoolers and transfers, develop players and market the program should put the Buffaloes on the map in a hurry.

But it comes at a massive risk for Colorado. Their betting on a coach with limited coaching experience who largely won because he brought in top recruits who dominated against a lower level of competition. And at what point does it become all about Coach Prime versus the team, the players and the University.

The talent will come but will the player development, game planning, and play calling be there? I have my doubts.

Wille Taggert

Tom Herman
Ex HC Texas

FAU has become the juvenile diversionary program for college football. A chance for head coaches to expunge their record and get a second chance. The latest enrollee is Tom Herman.

Remember when Herman was the up and coming coach. He was a Broyles Award winner, (2014 at Ohio State) and turned Houston into a top-10 program, winning AAC coach of the year on 2015. But he got pushed out at Texas following the 2020 season, yet still finished with a winning record (32-18) and went 4-0 in bowl games.

His track record at Houston and Texas checks out fine. He’s a good coach. He can win here.

Geoff Collins

Brent Key
OL Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech liked what they saw from Key. After firing Collins who went 7-19 in ACC play, Key rallied the team and did a nice in season turnaround. He went 4-3 in the ACC including upset wins over #13 North Carolina and #24 Pitt.

He's a Georgia Tech alum who knows the challenges that the program faces. With that said, he's a first-time head coach at a Power Five school that has to fight recruiting battles with all of the top-tier teams in the country. Tech will see what he can do, after the emotional kick start from being interim wears off, and he gets to coach a full season and get a few recruiting cycles under his belt.

Tech is a tough place to coach, getting to a bowl will be considered a success. He should be able to do that.

Sean Lewis

Kenni Burns
RB Minnesota

Burns decided to row his boat to Kent State. He brings significant experience as an assistant under P.J. Fleck at Minnesota and Western Michigan. Kent State is hoping that his seven seasons with Fleck offers a blueprint for how to build and compete in the MAC.

He’s a good recruiter, knows the area well, and can develop players but he has no coordinating let alone head coaching experience. The Flashers are going to struggle

Hugh Freeze

Jamey Chadwell
HC Coastal Carolina

He’s been one of my favorite coaches. Chadwell put Coastal Carolina into the national spotlight with back-to-back 11-win seasons in 2020 and 2021. His explosive offenses will mesh well with what Hugh Freeze left behind at Liberty. In fact, he’s a version of Freeze without the baggage.

My only concern is – is this just a lateral for Chadwell? Liberty fans should be excited as they are off to a great start to their inaugural season in the CUSA.

Scott Satterfield

Jeff Brohm
HC Purdue

I never understood the love fest for Brohm. Sure he won the Big Ten West but he backdoored in when Wiscy imploded and Iowa had the worst offense ever. He was just 36-34 overall and 26-25 in the Big Ten.

The last time a fan favorite alum quarterback and high profile head coach returned home, Scott Frost was going to put Nebraska back on the map. We all know how that worked out. Expect a similar fate.

Mike Leach

Zach Arnett
DC Miss State

I’m going to miss Mike Leach. His life philosophy and one liners were a joy. With his sudden passing, Mississippi State did what they needed to do and take the interim tag off Arnett He earned a shot. He took the Bulldog defense from 62st when he arrived to 13th last year.

He is a first-time head coach in the SEC, though. That's a big jump. The other MSU will stay in the lower rung of the SEC West.

Ken Nuimatalolo

Brian Newberry
DC Navy

There are two rules to being the head coach at Navy. 1. Beat Army 2. See Rule 1 Niumatalolo went 2-5 versus Army and 2-5 versus Air Force over the last seven years and won four or less games for three straight years. So Navy did what they did the last time they needed a new head coach, they promoted one of their coordinators. Arnett has been Navy's defensive coordinator for four years and was a semifinalist for the Broyles Award in 2019.

It’s a service academy so you know what is coming. Run the triple option, limit mistakes, shorten the game and hope to win in the end. Forget about recruiting. You play the hand you are dealt. This is Newberry's first head coaching gig.. The familiarity with the challenges that exist at Navy is important, but inexperience is a concern. The Commander in Chief trophy won't be coming back to Annapolis any time soon.

Scott Frost

Matt Rhule
HC Carolina

Another college coach comes back from the NFL with his tail between his legs. Rhule is a master at building college programs. He took Temple from 2-10 to back to back 10 win seasons and an AAV championship. He then took over a dumpster fire at Baylor and went from 1-11 to 11-2 and a Sugar Bowl berth.

Some guys are just meant to be college coaches, right Nick? Nebraska is going to be a power in the Big Ten West. The Rhule/Fickell matchups are going to be epic.

Seth Littrell

Eric Morris
OC Washington St

Morris has plenty of experience as an assistant coach in the state of Texas, including stints at Houston, Texas Tech and was HC at Incarnate Word. In fact his entire career outside two years at Washington State has been spent in the Lone Star state.

His work at Incarnate Word was one of the best in the FCS. He took an 1-11 team to 10-3 in 2021 and a FCS playoff berth. He’s a Mike Leach Air Raid disciple and runs prolific offenses. He knows the recruiting landscape. Excellent hire.

Jeff Brohm

Ryan Walter
DC Illinoiss

I had my doubts about the Fat Man at Illinois but perhaps the turnaround was really due to the DC Ryan Walters. In two short years he took a dreadful defense to 2nd in scoring, 1st in takeaways. 1st in interceptions and 3rd overall. His defenses at Mizzou were excellent as well.

It’s a cultural shift for Purdue which has been offense first ever since Joe Tiller and basketball on grass. But his coaching ability has been demonstrated. The Big Ten West has upped its game with the hiring of Fickell and Rhule. Walters is Purdue’s best hope to keep pace.

Jeff Scott

Alex Golesh
OC Tennessee

What Walters did for the Illini defense, Golesh did for the Tennessee. The Vols finished first in both scoring and total offense last year and total offense. But you wonder how much Golesh has ridden the coattails of Josh Heupel at UCF (2020) and at Tennessee (2021-22)

South Florida is taking another chance on an outsider who is unproven as a head coach. But for a team that borders on irrelevancy there is only upside. The Bulls likely wont challenge for the AAC title but they should start getting into bowl games again.

David Shaw

Troy Talyor
HC Sacremento St

Taylor comes from Sacramento State where he had success going 30-8 and reaching the FCS title game But his record before that is quite meager. He started out as a high school coach in 1995 then took a long break to be a radio announcer before returning to the high school ranks. He followed QB Jake Browning to Eastern Washington and then to Washington State before taking the HC position at Sacramento State.

It's hard enough to be the coach at Stanford given the restrictions that exist. It'll be even more difficult for a first-time FBS coach trying to move on from “Intellectual brutality” to high flying passing game. Stanford has been regressing. It won’t recover any time soon.

Jake Spavital

GJ Kinne
HC Incarnate Word

Kinne has worked under some of the best offensive coaches in college including Gus Malzahn, Chad Morris, and Sonny Dykes. He took what Eric Morris started at Incarnate Word and took it up a notch, going 11-1, The Cardinals made it all the way to the national semi-finals , beating new Stanford head coach Troy Taylor in the process. He’s young (just turned 34) but experienced.

The Bobcats haven't had a winning season since 2014. They should be able to achieve that goal.

Philip Montgomery

Kevin Wilson
OC Ohio State

An ugly choice. Wilson was run out of Indiana after reports of his treatment of players. Going 26-47 with no winning seasons there didn’t help either. For the last six years he’s attempted to resurrect his career as OC at Ohio State. It’s fairly easy to win when you have superior talent. He won’t have that at Tulsa. The Golden Showers will be moving on from Wilson soon.

Bill Clark

Trent Dilfer
HC Lipscomb Acad HS

Dilfer checks off two of my boxes as a terrible hire 1) moving up from the high school ranks and 2) former ESPN analyst. They haven’t worked out in the past and won’t here. Dilfer finishes a close second to Poggi as the worst hire of the year, with Wilson nipping at their heels. Too bad, Bill Clark has shown you can win at UAB.

Marcus Arroyo

Barry Odom
DC Arkansas

Odom gets another shot as HC. At Missouri he went 25-25, not bad for a Mizzou team playing in the SEC. He’s spent the the last three years as DC at Arkansas where his defense helped the Razorbacks to a 9-4 record. He’s had to develop talent as Missouri and Arkansas are going to get 2nd and 3rd tier SEC recruits.

It’s a good fit. Odom is a good coach and stepping down a level will work out for both sides. UNLV hasn't had a winning season since 2013. That streak will end very soon.

Tim Lester

Lance Taylor
OC Louisville

Louisville's offense was below average (76th) under Taylor which put HC Satterfield on the hot seat. Amazingly both ended up on their feet. Tim Lester squandered all the momentum generated by PJ Fleck but he had only one losing season. Taylor will get those losing seasons up and running.

Paul Chryst

Luke Fickell
HC Cincinnati

The first coach to lead a Group of 5 team to the College Football Playoff, Fickell has been jonesing a Big Ten job for a while now. He spurned State so he’s on my life time manure roster, got tired of waiting for Ohio State and jumped at the opportunity in Madison.

He’s not from the Alvarez coaching tree and will open up the Badger attack with the hiring of Air Raid OC Phil Longo from North Carolina. He has that Dantonio ability to coach up 3 stars. If he can take Cincinnati to the CFP he can take Bucky. Likely the best hire of the year.

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2022 NFL Championship Games - The New Guard Arrives

1/28/2023

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Can Brock Purdy become the first rookie QB to make it to the Super Bowl?

Out goes the old guard. There’s no Tom Brady, no Aaron Rodgers. Even Matthew Stafford at 34 would be considered ancient compared to the young guns playing in the championship games. The oldest is Patrick Mahomes at 27. Joe Burrow is 26, Jalen Hurts is 24 and Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant, a rookie, is 23.

The Bills Mafia might disagree but in the end we have the four best teams in the NFL playing this weekend. No Cinderellas, all four teams deserve to be here.

And for the first time in nearly 50 years, two teams come into the Championship games on a 10+ winning streak, the 49ers (12) and Bengals (10).

Philadelphia -1.5 vs San Francisco – Can a rookie quarterback get to the Super Bowl? History would say no. Brock Purdy will be the fifth rookie quarterback to start a Conference Championship game. The previous four went 0-4 SU. 2009 - Mark Sanchez, 2 TD, 1 INT; 2008 Joe Flacco, 0 TD, 3 INT; 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, 2 TD, 3 INT and 1999 Shaun King, 0 TD, 2 INT, a combined four passing touchdowns and nine interceptions. Not a great track record.

And only one rookie quarterback covered the spread, that was Shaun King as a two touchdown underdog.

Purdy will have to do better than he did against Dallas last week. He was pretty pedestrian going 19-for-29 for 214 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. It took a miracle catch by George Kittle, Tony Pollard going down with a broken leg and Zak Prescott melting down (again) for the Niners to win.

Lane Johnson has allowed only one QB hit in two years

But that really is the Niners game plan. Purdy is surrounded with weapons like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Adding Christian McCaffrey has taken San Francisco to the next level (Keep an eye on Christian McCaffrey’s calf. He was limited late in the game, which is why Elijah Mitchell was getting key carries down the stretch). All Purdy has to do is not screw up, which he hasn’t, get it to his players and count on the defense to win the game.

The Niners defense relies primarily on a terrific pass rush. But the Eagles have an elite offensive line now that Lane Johnson is back from injury. Twenty OL have played over 550 pass blocking snaps allowing one sack or fewer this season, four of those linemen were Eagles. Over the last two seasons, Johnson has played 1,026 pass plays and he hasn’t given up a sack and only one QB hit.

Even when the 49ers' pass rush can get there, Hurts is highly mobile, nullify the pressure. Russell Wilson tortured the Niners for years with his mobility, Hurts can do the same.

The Niners also have the best linebacker trio in the N.F.L. with Azeez Al-Shaair, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. They’re fast enough to keep up with receivers and tough enough to stop running backs in their tracks. The Niners have gone 27 straight games without allowing a rusher to surpass 70 yards on the ground.

The Eagles finished the season two short of the NFL record for sacks

But, as outstanding as the Niner defense is, the chink in the armor is their secondary. Top WRs like Cee Dee Lamb last week (10 receptions, 117 yards) have torched the San Francisco defense. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should have success.

Like the 49ers, the Eagles also have an elite pass rush. Philadelphia finished the season two sacks shy of the N.F.L. record set by the Bears in the 1984 season (72). Meanwhile, San Francisco's blocking, while solid, isn't nearly as good as Philadelphia's. We saw the Cowboys get to Brock Purdy on occasion last week, so the Eagles should be able to do the same.

Unlike the Niners, the Eagles have a solid secondary. Philadelphia's dual shutdown cornerbacks, Darius Slay and James Bradberry, have erased opposing wideouts this year.

The Eagles have gotten much better versus the rush since Jordan Davis returned to the lineup which should keep McCaffery from taking over the game. That said, The Eagles do struggle against tight ends so Kittle should have a nice evening.

Philadelphia is 14-1 when Jalen Hurts starts

I’m going to take the Eagles to cover for a Mega Bet. The Eagles are just like the Niners only better. The defense is better and who would you rather have a QB, an MVP candidate or a rookie playing in a very hostile environment in the biggest game of his young career.

Investors should note: Hurts gets off to great starts. He is 12-4 ATS in the first half this season (8-1 1H ATS at home)

This season, the Eagles are 14-2 SU with Lane Johnson and 1-1 SU without him.

More importantly, the Eagles are 14-1 this season when Jalen Hurts starts. Two of their three regular-season losses came with Gardner Minshew starting under center.

San Francisco is the hottest team remaining left in the tournament. Not only are they on a 12-game SU win streak, they are 10-2 ATS in that stretch.

The Eagles have won 13 or more games in the regular season three times in franchise history. They made the Super Bowl the previous two times, back in 2004 and 2017.

Can a gimpy Mahomes finally beat the Bengals?

Cincinnati -1.5 @ Kansas City – Death, taxes, the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City will be hosting the AFC championship game for the fifth straight year, an NFL record. Every year Patrick Mahomes has been the starter in Kansas City, the Chiefs have been playing for a trip to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have gone 2-2 so far, and they face another tough test in 2023.

The headline for this game has been Mahome’s ankle but a better question is whether Cincinnati can really beat Kansas City a fourth straight time?

In what is emerging as the best rivalry in football, these two teams met in last years AFC championship game with the Bengals winning 27-24. Earlier this year, in Week 13, Cincinnati won by the same exact score – 27-24, and last year, Cincinnati won during the regular season with the Bengals winning by, guess what, three points - 34-31.

It’s a huge concern, Mahome’s ankle. When Andy Reid announced that Mahomes would play (like he wouldn’t?) the team opened to the media to a light workout. Not since Zapruder, has a film been so dissected. Does it really matter? Even a lesser version of Mahomes is still vastly better than nearly every other quarterback in the league.

Joe Burrow was masterful versus Buffalo last week

Except perhaps Joe Burrow. As long as Joe Burrow is at the helm in Cincinnati, the Bengals’ championship window is open. He was superb in last weeks blow out of Buffalo. Burrow was on fire from the start. The Bengals scored on their first two drives, which saw the former No. 1 overall pick go 9-for-9.

Fast starts are the name of the game for Cincinnati. In their last five first quarters, the Black and Orange have outscored their opponents by an amazing 46-0. On top of that, their defense has an even more impressive stat, they have not allowed a single touchdown in the first quarter of their last 12 games.

It's no fluke that Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs. Burrow is the top quarterback in the NFL against the blitz, and the Chiefs really rely on the blitz to generate pressure on the quarterback. Of the NFL teams with top-10 pressure rates in the NFL this year, only the Giants and Cowboys have blitzed more than Kansas City.

Lou Anarumo wrote the book on how to stop Mahomes

If there’s any coach who can adjust an offense in a matter of days, it’s Andy Reid. He’s as creative as they come, so assuming Mahomes’ ankle limits him to being a pocket passer, I suspect the Chiefs will have plenty of wrinkles to move the ball nonetheless.

But Cincinnati DC, Lou Anarumo's is just as clever. He wrote the book on how to limit Mahomes. In last year’s championship game, the Chiefs took a 21-3 lead only to see Mahomes and Co. get shut down the rest of the game. After halftime, Mahomes was just 8-of-18 for 55 yards in the second half with two interceptions and four sacks. It was the worst second half of Mahomes' NFL career.

His defenses have been stout against the run ever since they got D.J. Reader back from injury. Mahomes was really able to lean on Isiah Pacheco's runs last week, but that won't be the case this time. He'll be a sitting duck in the pocket versus a swarming Bengals pass rush that rattled Josh Allen last week.

Conversely, the Chiefs are weak to the run, and they especially struggle versus pass-catching running backs. Back in Week 13, Samaje Perine had a great outing against the Chiefs with Joe Mixon sidelined. He rushed for 106 yards and caught six passes for 49 receiving yards.

KC struggles against passes to RB which is good news for Samaje Perine

The line has been crazy. It started out at Kansas City -2.5 then during the week as bettors questioned Mahome’s injury it moved to Cincinnati -2.5 and then with Reid saying Mahomes looks better than expected the line moved again to Kansas City -1.0.

Doesn’t matter to me. The trend is your friend as they say. I’ll take Cincinnati to make it four straight over Kansas City and put a Mini Mega on the money line at +100.

Investors should note: Cincinnati has been stellar against the spread this season, going 13-5 and have covered 9 straight, the longest active streak in the NFL.

When the Bengals are underdogs of three or more points, Burrow is 14-2 ATS

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams against the number this season. They’ll enter the AFC Championship Game at 6-12 ATS

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2022 NFL Divisional Playoff - Sunday Games

1/21/2023

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After a couple easy picks and wins on Saturday, Sunday has me flummoxed. I’m not sure of either pick. I’ll give you the overview and let you decise

Cincinnati +5.5 @ Buffalo - It took a month but we are going to get the matchup we were looking for. Emotions will be high for both sides, even more than a typical playoff game.

Cincinnati will have a chip on their shoulder. The defending AFC champions are rarely mentioned in the same breath as the favorites, Buffalo and Kansas City. The doubters were emboldened by the Bengals near loss to Baltimore last week. The Ravens played yet again without Lamar Jackson yet nearly took down Cincy. The game turned this play:

Burrow was sacked four times by Baltimore and now is down three OL

It was the Fumble in the Jungle - Baltimore fumbled at the Cincinnati one-yard line and DE Sam Hubbard raced 99 yards for the deciding score.

Burrow was sacked four times in the game and the Bengals rushed for just 51 yards. Still, the Bengals offense cannot be taken lightly. Cincinnati finished 7th in the NFL in points per game this season and ranks 7th in the NFL in passing offense. They are excellent in the red zone, ranking 5th in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns.

Defensively, Cincinnati has been one of the more underrated teams in the league. The Bengals are 6th in scoring defense this season and they are giving up two less points per game over the last three games. They are 9th against the run and 23rd against the pass on the season.

The Bengals have been excellent defensively in the red zone too. They are fifth in the league in keeping teams out of the end zone in red zone opportunities. The Bengals have been protective of the football as well, ranking fifth in the league in turnover differential.

But injuries have piled up for Cincy. They will be without three starting offensive linemen this week as Jonah Williams, Alex Cappa and La’el Collins are all out. Cluster injuries can doom a team, and they’re often worse on the line and in the secondary.

That’s another Bengals vulnerability as CB Chidobe Awuzie is already out and CB Eli Apple is struggling some. Josh Allen could put up big passing yards on the depleted Cincy secondary if he gets rolling

The Bills have have offense – they’re about three plays away from being unbeaten – the home crowd will be next-level insane, and the inspiration coming from Hamlin will certainly matter. Last year’s team ripped through New England in the Wild Card round with ease. They knew down to its core that it was one coin flip away from probably winning the Super Bowl.

Tyler Boyd had an early TD before the game was stopped.

Sounds like an easy Bills win right? Well consider this. The Bills might be the most dangerous team in the AFC whenever they protect the football and play good defense. Unfortunately, they haven’t done that as of late. Buffalo surrendered an average of 24 PPG and turning the ball over a blundering 10 times in their last four games. If that continues you can put a W next to Cincinnati right now.

The Bengals have now won nine straight games, while racking up a lofty average of 28 PPG and turning the ball over just nine times during that stretch - the same amount of turnovers Buffalo has had since Week 16.

When they played in week 17, Joe Burrow looked like he was going to have one of the all-time great performances. He was completely locked in, shredding the Bills' defense on the opening drive, quickly scoring a touchdown on a pass to Tyler Boyd. Burrow then connected with Tee Higgins for a pass on the ensuing drive to move over midfield, and then, well we know what happened after that.

And how important are the missing lineman to the Cincy offense anyway? Jonah Wilson surrendered 13 sacks to opposing pass rushers, which was most in the NFL. Collins had finished 79th of 82 qualifying tackles in pass block grade.

The Bengals have not lost by three or more points with Ja'Marr Chase in the lineup

Also consider this, Burrow will unlikely be under a tremendous amount of pressure, as Buffalo is the least blitz-heavy team remaining in the playoffs.

Bengals may have lost three offensive linemen in a span of a few weeks, but they welcomed back some injured defensive players recently. That includes defensive ends Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, which will bolster their pass rush. The Bengals' defense struggled for a small stretch when they were sidelined, but they've suffocated opposing quarterbacks recently.

And yet, even with Hendrickson and Hubbard back, the Bills didn't have their entire offensive line intact back then either. Center Mitch Morse was out, while guard Ryan Bates was just returning from injury. The Bills' offensive front is healthier now, so Josh Allen won't face nearly as much pressure as he would have for the rest of that Week 17 battle.

Confused? Stymied? Not sure where to go? Me too.

But, when in doubt take the points. Unlike Saturday's blow outs this game should be very exciting and come down to a FG. No quatloos though. I'll save them for the next round.

Investors should note: The Bills are a mediocre 8-8-1 ATS this year while the Bengals, have been a bettor’s best friend, going an astonishing 12-4 ATS.
Joe Burrow. is 12-3 ATS when Cincinnati is catching 3+ points as an underdog.

The Bengals are 20-5 ATS over their past 25 games and have not lost by more than a field goal in the past 21 games with Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup.

Dallas can defend the rush and the middle of the field.

San Francisco -3.5 vs Dallas – It was the worst pick I made during the playoffs so far. I went against the Cowboys and it cost me first place in both my pools and a Mega Bet. Do I dare bet against them again?

When analyzing the 49ers game, the question you must ask of the defense is if it can defend the middle of the field. It’s how the 49ers attack the opposition, so teams that are weak in this area tend to really struggle against San Francisco. Seattle is one of the worst teams when it comes to defending the middle of the field, which is why the 49ers dominated them three times this year.

The Cowboys, however, are pretty strong in this regard. They are the No. 1 team in the NFL in stopping tight ends, so don’t expect George Kittle to have his typical dominant performances. And the Cowboys also excel at clamping down on running backs, so Christian McCaffrey is going to have a subpar game too.

Dallas is weaker to the pass than the run, which means Brock Purdy will need to come up big once again. He'll have to deliver consistent strikes to Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. It's a good thing for the 49ers that Samuel looked completely healthy last week.

For Dallas, they need to finally forget about Ezekiel Elliott. They are wasted opportunities. Tony Pollard is much better but even he will struggle against the number one defense against the run.

Deebo Samuel looks to be healthy

But how good is the Niner defense really? They have one major weakness, which is cornerback. We've seen some elite receivers burn them recently, whether it's D.K. Metcalf last week, or Davante Adams in Week 17. I have a tough time seeing the 49ers putting the clamps on CeeDee Lamb.
The 49ers’ defensive backfield is ripe to get exposed by a capable quarterback. It was less than a month ago that Jarrett Stidham was dicing up San Francisco at a 61% success rate.

The 49ers faced the easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses this season. They faced the easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses this season. The 49ers didn’t play the Eagles, Cowboys, Lions or Vikings in the NFC. Their top expected division rivals, the Rams and Cardinals, had quarterback injuries and terrible offensive seasons.

In the AFC, the 49ers even got to face the Chargers without any of Justin Herbert’s receivers. San Francisco’s defense is clearly good, but perhaps they are a bit overrated and now they’ll see one of the league’s best units.

The 49ers can often make up for their poor cornerback play by swarming the opposing quarterback with their elite pass rush. This won't work as well versus Dallas, however, because the Cowboys have a great offensive line themselves. After the first two drives Monday night, Dak Prescott was kept clean for most of the night, and that should be the case in this game.

Dallas' defense matches up extremely well with San Francisco's offense. The Cowboys are great versus running backs and tight ends, which is how the 49ers love to attack defenses. Purdy has yet to face a defense as good as the Cowboys. Sure, he has a playoff win under his belt but that was against a terrible Seattle defense.

I don’t want to over react to Dallas’ domination of Tampa Bay last week. Nor do I want to underestimate the Niners defense and their offense with Christian McCaffery. But getting over a FG in a toss up game is compelling. I’ll take the Cowboys for a quatloo.

Investors should note: The NFC East went 29-16-1 ATS against non-division opponents, which was the best mark — by far — of any division.
Underdogs that won by double digits in the Wild Card Round have gone 24-14 ATS (63.2%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years.
Meanwhile, over the past 20 years, teams on 10-plus-game winning streaks are 6-8 SU and 1-13 ATS in the Divisional Round or later.

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2022 NFL Divisional Round - Saturday Games

1/20/2023

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Jacksonville struggles against TEs which is good news for Travis Kelce

The Wild card round has some great games. Let’s see if the Divisional round can keep up the pace.

First a couple of interesting stats. History says to fade home favorites ATS in the Divisional Round as they are 26-47-0. And it’s worse for the #1 seeds as they are 13-25-1 ATS after their week off. If the point spread jumps to 10 points or better (and its getting close) watch out as those teams are 8-24-1 ATS.

Only once in the last eight years have both 1-seeds covered in the Divisional Round, and only twice since 2003. They have, however, gone 0-2 ATS eight times during that same span.

With that in mind – here are my picks.

Jacksonville +9.0 @ Kansas City – Don’t look now, but here come the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville has won six straight games, including last week’s miraculous comeback win over the Chargers. Trevor Lawrence threw four first-half picks and still won, thanks to three second-half touchdowns.

The Jags are ninth on offense and 26th on defense. The problem for the Jaguars defense is where they especially struggle: against the pass. That’s likely going to be a huge liability against Patrick Mahomes and the top passing offense in the league.

Patrick Mahomes had one of the best games of the year against their defense back in Week 10. He was on fire, going 26-of-35 for 331 yards, four touchdowns and a pick in a 27-17 win. And he did it without JuJu Smith-Schuster, who suffered a concussion in the first half.

The Chiefs can also rely on Mahomes to make it happen when it matters. KC scored the most red zone touchdowns (50) and boasts the top conversion rate (43%) on third and 10-plus yards this season.

The Jaguars' ranking against the pass has improved since that loss to Kansas City, but they've played against a ton of sketchy offenses down the stretch. When they plated against explosive offenses, like the Lions and Cowboys, they let up at least 34 points.

Kansas City struggles against slot receivers so Christian Kirk should have a good game too.

The Jags may be solid against the run but they are woeful against tight ends. I made a nice winning wager on Gerald Everett last week and he is no Travis Kelce.

This means that Jacksonville will need to win in a shootout. Trevor Lawrence has been a slow starter. Brilliant in the comeback win over Dallas and in the thriller last week against the Chargers, he finds his rhythm when he’s able to fire away with nothing to lose. The problem is that he’s putting his team in a position to need the monster comeback.

I doubt that Trevor Lawrence will start out with four picks again but he did start out slowly against KC in their last meeting too. The Jags punted five times and missed a FG on their first five possessions.

Lawrence ended up with some nice numbers (25-40, 250 yds, 2TDs, 0 picks) but they were mostly in garbage time. Andy Reid won't have the same sort of late-game meltdown that the inept Brandon Staley was guilty of last Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs typically get off to a fast start. They rank fourth in first half margin (+4.5), and coming off the bye week, that likely means they will get off to another quick start as Andy Reid typically thrives when having extra time to prepare.

Lawrence had a slow start to the aforementioned Week 10 meeting between these teams, though he generated some good garbage-time numbers. He ended up 29-of-40 for 259 yards and two touchdowns. However, that was before he found a rhythm with Evan Engram and Zay Jones. The Chiefs are also not very good when it comes to defending tight ends, so Engram and Jones figure to have a strong performances.

I’m going to go with a Mini Mega on Kansas City -5.5 in the first half. The spread is too high for me for the full game and another Jags back door cover.

I’ll also go with some player props, they have been profitable for me during the playoffs.

For this game I’ll put a quatloo each on:
Trevor Lawrence over 248.5 yards passing
Christian Kirk over 63.5 yards receiving (109 in the first game)
Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs

Investors should note:
The Chiefs weren’t friendly to bettors this season, going 6-11 ATS. Even worse they are 2-6 ATS at home.
Jacksonville has covered five of their last six.

The Eagles have the best rushing attack

NY Giants +7.5 @ Philadelphia – Every trend says take the Giants. Besides the overall Divisional Round trends, Road teams are 14-4-1 ATS (78%) in divisional rematches in the first two rounds, including 5-1 ATS this round (4-2 SU). New York covered the spread at a historic rate as an underdog this year, going 11-2. That’s the best mark by any team in a single season over the past 20 years.

In addition, the Giants are 4-0 ATS against teams they previously faced (Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia and Minnesota) — bad news for a Philadelphia team that’s failed to cover in four straight games dating back to December 11. And don’t forget, Daniel Jones is 17-5 ATS as a road dog.

Yet, I’m throwing the trends away and taking the Eagles. I just can’t get past how glaring a mismatch this is for Philadelphia. It’s not just one thing — it’s everything.

The Eagles are the best rushing attack in the NFL. They lead the league in both DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and EPA (expected points added), even including the late games without Jalen Hurts and RT Lane Johnson, and they lead the league in explosive runs. The Giants rank last against the run. They’re 31st by EPA and explosive runs allowed.

The other side of the ball favors the Eagles too. The Eagles lead the league in Pass Defense DVOA. They also lead the league in pressure rate with a sack rate. The Giants rank 28th in pass protection. Daniel Jones will find life very different, and much more difficult, this week.

With Hurts and Johnson ready to go, the Eagles shouldn't have any issues moving the chains on the Giants. They scored 48 points against New York in Week 14, and there's no reason to expect this result to be any different. The Giants have a miserable defense that is ranked low in every regard, save for pressure rate. If Johnson is on the field, this pressure rate will be meaningless because Philadelphia's elite offensive line will keep Hurts shielded well.
The Eagles have won in the trenches all season and should own both sides of the trenches here.

The Eagles won that Week 14 matchup by the score of 48-22. And yet, that result isn't even indicative of how lopsided that affair was. Seven of the Giants' 22 points came via a blocked punt, and then the rest of the production occurred in garbage time. The Eagles outgained the Giants, 437-304, and they averaged 1.7 more yards per play.

And they led the leagues in sacks

Those who watched the Giants upset the Vikings might be wondering how Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley will be stopped, but the Eagles accomplished this feat in Week 14. Jones and Barkley took advantage of the Vikings' miserable defense, Minnesota was a nice team with a lot of weapons, but it also had the NFL’s second-worst defense – it made Daniel Jones look like Steve Young last week.

Navigating through Philadelphia's elite stop unit will be much more challenging. Jones will face tons of pressure from a unit that led the NFL in sacks, while his receivers will be smothered by Philadelphia's dual shutdown cornerbacks. Jones will scramble for some first downs, but the Eagles have better personnel than the Vikings to contain that aspect of the Giants' offense.

The Eagles should run all over the Giants and did so in the regular season. Philadelphia ranks third in Success Rate offensively and the Giants rank 28th defensively. New York is the worst in the league defensively on first downs by DVOA. If the Eagles play like they did most of the season, they might be able to name their score in this game.

The first time these teams played, the Eagles went up 24-7 at the half and led 48-14 until garbage time. In Week 18 (when the Giants rested key starters), it was 16-0 at the half and 22-9 before garbage time. That’s a combined 70-23 in meaningful minutes. These games haven’t been close.
I’m going with the Eagles to cover for a Mega Bet.

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2022 Wild Card - Monday Night

1/16/2023

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Dak has bee a turnover machine this year

Tampa Bay +2.5 vs Dallas – Tonight we are right back where we started, a Monday night rematch of the opening Sunday Night game. Tampa Bay dominated that night, as the defense completely shut down Prescott, who suffered an injury, and the Cowboys offense in a 19-3 victory. Four months later, after all the ups and downs, it feels like these teams are right back where they started.

Dallas’s offense was stymied when CeeDee Lamb was bottled up with just two catches for 29 yards on 11 targets in that first matchup. Tampa’s defense is nasty when healthy - and they are finally healthy again. Since the bye, the Buccaneers have always been missing at least one cornerback, but they all figure to be back for this game. Tampa Bay will also have its safeties on the field after missing them for several games.

Dak Prescott has been an interception machine this year. In the last seven games alone, he’s thrown 11 interceptions. He's also missing several offensive linemen, including his center, which will be problematic against a Tampa front that can get after the quarterback.

Dallas is the worst at covering WR2 which is good news for Chris Godwin

The Buccaneers are also excellent against the run, so Prescott won't be able to lean as much on Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is struggling, yet the Cowboys will continue to give him carries because they are very poorly coached.

Tampa’s offense hasn’t exactly been great, but this faltering Dallas defense might be the perfect remedy. The Cowboys pass defense nosedived to 25th over the past six weeks and has no answers or healthy bodies at corner. The Cowboys have an elite pass rush but a porous secondary, and no one gets the ball out faster than Tom Brady which will neutralize Micah Parsons and company.

The Buccaneers had been missing offensive linemen for a while, but Tristan Wirfs and Donovan Smith were able to return from injury. Center Ryan Jensen is set to return from injured reserve as well. The Buccaneers have been without Jensen all year, so he'll be a welcome addition to the blocking unit, which had struggled so much previously.

With the OL finally healthy, Brady will have enough time to find Michael Evans for some big gains. Dallas is the worst in the NFL in covering WR2 so Chris Godwin should have a big day too.

I’m going to put a Mega bet on Tampa Bay on the money line at +125. I’m also going to make a prop bet that Chris Godwin over 67.5 yards receiving.

Investors should note: Wild Card teams with a .500 or below record are 8-1 ATS and 6-3 SU
Dak Prescott is 0-4 ATS in the playoffs.
Tom Brady is 3-0 both ATS and straight up as a playoff underdog.

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2022 NFL Wild Card - Sunday Games

1/15/2023

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Allen can beat you with his arm and his feet.

Buffalo -13.5 vs Miami – It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Buffalo, but with Damar Hamlin being released from the hospital, the Bills can fully focus on the Dolphins. The Bills and Dolphins meet for the third time this season, with their most recent matchup resulting in a close Bills victory. But a few things have changed since that Week 15 matchup. The Bills have gotten healthier, while the Dolphins have done the opposite, losing players left and right, even down to starting third string QB Skylar Thompson.

The Dolphins’ defense remains their best hope to keep this game close and locking down the Bills run game would be a gigantic step toward doing just that. The Dolphins are superb against the run. They held Devin Singletary to 42 yards on 13 carries when they last met.

But the Bills have been getting good production out of James Cook lately. As the season has progressed, Cook’s comfort-level in reading his keys, blitz pickup and in the pass game have all gotten better. Cook provides an explosive element that Singletary lacks. Singletary will likely start the game, with Cook working in shortly after. From there, the Bills will likely just go with the hot hand strategy.

Miami loves to bring the heat.

If the Dolphins follow their usual defensive protocol, there will likely be a healthy amount of man coverage mixed in against the Bills. In the Week 15 matchup, the Dolphins used man coverage on 57.7 percent of their snaps — their second-highest rate in a single game this season. Man coverage favors the Stefon Diggs matchup against just about anyone in the Fins secondary.

Miami is a blitz happy team too, they send at least five pass rushers on 36.4 percent of their pass-rushing opportunities, the third-highest rate in the NFL this season. When blitzed, Allen is better running it than passing. He is 31st in completion rate and YPC when blitzed but he does have 92 yards on 10 runs. Expect the Dolphins to blitz in an attempt to keep the game in hand.

The Dolphins also ran extremely well against the Bills in that matchup; Raheem Mostert looked like a Pro Bowl back as he dashed for 136 yards on just 17 carries. This will be significant, only if Miami isn't getting blown out. Buffalo could easily explode offensively, forcing the Dolphins to abandon the run.

James Cook adds an explosive element to the game.

Miami will need to get the run game going because Skylar Thompson is just plain awful. He sucks in his reads and progressions, and if moved from his drop spot in the pocket, he is prone to some highly questionable throws. The key will be getting to Thompson and taking away his first read. The Bills may feel more compelled to blitz than usual, with man coverage, because moving Thompson off his spot will be the key to turnovers.

Helping the Bills’ hopes of defending the run is the Dolphins offensive line, who have struggled for much of the season and are also now annihilated by injuries. Star LT Terrio Armstead is questionable as is RT Brandon Shell. Starting left guard Liam Eichenberg is doubtful and hasn’t practiced all week. The Bills’ defensive line is set up to dominate.

And don’t forget returner Nyheim Hines. He got everyone’s attention taking two kickoff returns to the house last week against the Patriots.

Josh Allen versus Skylar Thompson, I’ll lay the points all day long. The Bills offense is border line unstoppable. They have a huge advantage on offense, defense, special teams, experience and at coach. And you have a seventh round drft choice making his debut in perhaps the most hostile environment in football? Don’t sweat this one.

I won’t – I’m in for a Mega Bet on the Bills to cover the first half spread of 7.5 and another Mini Mega to cover the 13.5 point spread.

Investors should note: Double-digit underdogs are 3-11 in the playoffs since 2011. Double-digit underdogs in the Wild Card Round are 1-7 ATS in the last 20 years.

Saquon Barkley can bust the game wide open

NY Giants +3.0 @ Minnesota – The Vikings defense is putrid. It allowed more 400-yard performances in consecutive games than any Vikings team in history. Just how bad is the Vikings’ defense? The Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, but they aren’t strong against the run, either. And they present a lot of light boxes, which invite opponents to run.

RB Saquon Barkley can bust a game wide open if he gets a crease. Barkley, who wasn’t completely healthy, was effective on the ground the first time these two met, gaining 84 yards on 14 carries.

QB Daniel Jones is a bit erratic, but he can run around and make stuff happen if a defense gives him the chance. Jones’ legs have been a weapon all season. He ranks 10th in the NFL with 57 rushes for first downs this season. And he leads the league with 47.5 percent of his carries producing a first down.

Adoree Jackson's return should help limit Jefferson

The Vikings' defense may have been dreadful all year, but the offense has been able to carry it in many close wins. The Giants have some major problems in the linebacking corps and secondary that Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson will be able to exploit. Hockenson has at least five catches in seven of his nine full Minnesota games, and he’s had 9+ targets in six of them. He’s become a real security blanket for Kirk Cousins.

How the Giants defend Jefferson, will be a key to the game. The first time these two teams played, the Giants gave Jefferson free releases off the line of scrimmage. Now they get Adoree Jackson back who will play him much tighter. Jackson figures to travel with Jefferson. No corner can shut down the league’s leading receiver one-on-one, but Jackson’s superior talent should allow him to play tighter coverage than Fabian Moreau did in the first matchup.

While New York is getting key players back, Minnesota will be without RT Brian O'Neill. This will be problematic for Kirk Cousins, who has a huge disparity in how he performs when under pressure versus kept clean. Cousins has a 72.4 completion percentage when seeing no pressure in the pocket as a opposed to a 51.5 completion rate when facing pressure. The Giants rank fifth in pressure rate, which is bad news for Cousins and the rest of the offense.
These teams are headed in opposite directions. Since Week 11 (excluding Week 18), the Giants rank as the sixth-best offense according to total offensive DVOA. The Vikings were 25th in the same category over that span.

We are getting points against the worst defense in the playoffs, sounds like an easy play to me. The Giants are 6-1 ATS on the road this season, and will have the coaching edge in this game as well. Put me in for a Mini Mega on the money line at +130.

Roquan Smith has been a huge addition to the Raven's defense

Cincinnati -8.5 vs Baltimore – It’s a rare back to back game as these two met in week 18, a 27-16 Bengals home win. The Bengals may have scored 27 but they weren't nearly as impressive on this side of the ball as that figure would indicate. Twenty-one points came off turnovers, as their offense sputtered otherwise. Joe Burrow was shockingly inaccurate, missing receivers for multiple touchdowns. Tee Higgins also had a brutal drop on a deep ball that may have gone for a score as well.

Perhaps the Bengals were utilizing a vanilla offense with the playoffs looming, but there are some concerns stemming from the offensive line. Right tackle La'el Collins is out, which allowed the Ravens to put plenty of pressure on Burrow.

The Ravens made some adjustments to their defense during the middle of the season to allow their pass rush to be better than the season-long stats indicate.. Buoyed by the addition of inside linebacker Roquan Smith, the Ravens have allowed the league’s second-fewest points per game (14.7) and the third-fewest yards per game (288.8) over the final nine weeks of the regular season. Baltimore has given up more than 20 points to an opposing offense just once since Week 8, and that was all the way back on Nov. 27 versus the Jaguars.

The Ravens offense is sputtering under Tyler Huntley

Burrow will have to perform better in this game because he won't be able to count on Joe Mixon being a big producer. The Ravens are even better against the run than the pass, ranking fifth in adjusted EPA ground defense.

Cincinnati may have struggled last week, but the Ravens offense is really hurting. The Ravens haven’t scored more than one offensive touchdown in a game in over a month The absence of Lamar Jackson is starting to show how valuable he is. In the six games Jackson has thrown five or fewer passes, the Ravens have recorded six of their seven lowest point totals.

They have had just one game of over 200 yards of passing offense. That game was last week against the Bengals. For context, 169 of their passing in that game came in the fourth quarter when the game was out of hand.

Though the return of JK Dobbins should help

Tyler Huntley is expected to start but he's experiencing shoulder tendinitis. It's unclear how much this would hinder him. Huntley is tasked with a difficult matchup against a Cincinnati pass rush that puts lots of heat on the quarterback.

Baltimore should get a boost from the return of J.K. Dobbins. Since his return, Dobbins has been fantastic, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. But the Bengals are also stout versus the run, so J.K. Dobbins might not be able to accomplish much.

Cincinnati has a massive edge at quarterback and wide receiver, which will likely prove to be the difference but this looks like too many points. I’ll take Baltimore and the points but no quatloos.

Investors should note: Road division teams in the first two rounds are 13-4-1 ATS (77%) and an amazing 11-6 straight up (65%) with a spread of nine or below.

John Harbaugh is 54-35-3 ATS (61%) as an underdog, including 8-4 in the playoffs and 8-1 as an underdog of eight or more. He’s also 5-0 straight-up (SU) and ATS in road Wild Card games.

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2022 NFL Wild Card Weekend - Part 1

1/13/2023

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Christian McCaffery abused the pathetic Seattle run defense in Week 15

College football bombed with real dud of a championship game on Monday, so the keys have been handed back to the NFL to put up some fun competitive games. The makings are there with plenty of good quarterbacks in Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Tom Brady a playoff underdog, and Mr Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, is guiding the hottest team in the field.

Not every game is expected to be full of fireworks. Miami and Baltimore will start second- or third-string quarterbacks, and we could end up with three double-digit underdogs by kickoff.

But those spreads could be tempting to experienced investors. Here's who I'm going with this weekend.

San Francisco -9.5 vs Seattle - You, me and your newest best drinking buddy at the corner of the bar can call this game plan for the Niners. The Seahawks, are abysmal against the run. No team has a worse adjusted EPA ranking against the run than the Seahawks.

The Niners are one of the best running teams in the league. Christian McCaffrey’s abused Seattle back in week 15 with 108 yards rushing and a TD. McCaffrey is questionable with a sore knee but practiced Wednesday and has been playing well despite the injury. In the past six games, he's accumulated 767 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns on 128 touches.

If he struggles, the good news for Niner fans is that RB Elijah Mitchell should be ready to go. Mitchell has played in only five games this season but was eased into the playing rotation last week getting five touches for 55 yards.

Seattle loves to play a zone defense, calling zone coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league. TE George Kittle thrives against the zone, part of the reason he scored 2 TDs against the Seahawks in that same game.

George Kittle thrives against zone defenses

Getting pressure on Niner QB Brock Purdy will be key since Seattle needs to disrupt his rhythm and try and rattle his confidence. Purdy ranks 35th in QB Rating against the blitz, while he’s first in net yards per attempt without the blitz.

But the Seahawks rarely blitz, bringing additional pressure at the 3rd lowest rate in the league. Seattle was only got to him once the first time, and they won't have the crowd noise advantage on Saturday.

For Seattle, the season is already a huge success. They traded away Russell Wilson netting Seattle several players, including DL Shelby Harris and TE Noah Fant, two first-round picks, two second-rounders, and a fifth-rounder. Denver then mishandled Wilson, falling to 5-12 putting Seattle in the fifth spot in the upcoming draft.

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but QB Geno Smith came from a placeholder to have a great beginning of the season before tailing off and just making the playoffs. For Smith, play action is the key to his game. He ranks sixth in QB rating on play action. Setting up the play action will be handing off to rookie EB sensation, former Spartan, Kenneth Walker III.

Kenneth Walker III is the odds on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

KWII is the odds on favorite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the year (-120) after rushing for 1,050 yards and 9 TDs with no fumbles so far this year. But using the run to set up the play action is difficult to say the least against the Niners. They're ranked at the top of adjusted EPA in ground defense, which would explain why Kenneth Walker struggled in this matchup four weeks ago when he was limited to 47 yards and 0 TDs.

With Walker likely shut down, Smith will be targeting his two superb WRs, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. San Francisco plays zone coverage at the fifth highest rate in the league which will benefit Locket. Metcalf’s production drops by half when facing zone versus man to man.

The 49ers also do a good job of dominating time of possession, limiting the overall volume of their opponents’ plays. San Francisco allowed the fifth-fewest plays per game during the regular season.

San Francisco is better in just about every way, thus the high spread. San Francisco has been on a roll winning 10 straight, covering seven of their last eight.

Meanwhile, Seattle started out 6-3 before going 3-5 over the last half of the season while going 1-7 ATS. A large part of the reason is that Geno Smith has been a turnover machine lately with just four picks in the first nine games but ended with seven picks over his last eight games.

I’m going to go with San Francisco to cover the high spread but just one quatloo. Seattle is playing with house money with nothing to lose. They could easily get a back door cover like they did in week 13, scoring a TD with 3:35 to go to get the cover.

Investors should note: 15 teams have played a playoff game on a 10+ game SU win streak. Those teams are 7-8 SU and a losing 2-13 ATS.

Much is made of how difficult is is to beat a team three times in one season. The 49ers swept the Seahawks during the regular season. They will be the 20th team in the Wild Card era to face an opponent a third time after a SU sweep in the regular season. Those teams are 12-7 SU and 9-9-1 ATS.

LA Chargers -2.5 @ Jacksonville – Jacksonville is the Detroit Lions of the AFC. After winning just two games last year, they started the year 3-7 before finishing the year on a 6-1 winning streak, nabbing the AFC South title in a play in game against Tennessee, The Jaguars have a terrific passing game with a great young QB, a dynamic RB, and a terrific pass rush. The Chargers have a better version of all three of those things, and they’re better in most other places too.

The Jaguars are outstanding at one specific thing — passing the ball with Trevor Lawrence carving up defenses. The Jaguars offense ranks in the top 10 thanks to the No. 6 passing attack.

But LA has built its defense to take away the pass. Something required in a conference that features Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and now Lawrence. The Chargers defense started slowly but found its footing after the bye. The pass defense has leapt to No. 2 in DVOA since Week 8, and now they get Joey Bosa back. Bosa makes the Charger defense much much better. When he was out the Chargers allowed 23.4 PPG. With Bosa on the field they only surrendered 17.7 PPG, nearly a touchdown difference.

Jacksonville’s offense has been trailing off lately. Lawrence has been dealing with a nagging toe injury, which could be the culprit, but he’s also playing behind a shaky offensive line without left tackle Cam Robinson, who suffered a season-ending injury.

Joey Bosa's return spells trouble for Lawrence

L.A.’s pass defense should keep Lawrence and his receivers in check, but Jacksonville’s defense can’t do the same against Justin Herbert now that he’s got Keenan Allen back. The Chargers offense ranks top 10 by DVOA over the past six weeks now that it’s healthy,

Jacksonville’s pass defense was an ugly 28th for the season. The Jaguars pass rush is fierce and will be a factor, but Herbert will light this secondary up when he finds time. The Jaguars defense plays man coverage more than most teams. Herbert is far more effective against man coverage (fifth in expected points per play versus man) than against zone defenses (21st versus zone).

The Chargers throw the ball the second most in the league behind only the Tampa Bay and that very likely will continue even without injured Mike Williams. Expect Herbert to target Austin Ekeler even more than usual. The Bolts love getting Ekeler the ball in space through the air. In fact, the 123 passes thrown his way rank 19th in the league. They’re 18 more than Christian McCaffrey, who ranks second among running backs with 105 targets.

Austin Ekeler should see plenty of targets

Jacksonville also ranks dead last in defending tight ends so Gerald Everett should be featured more too.

The Jags dominated the back in September 38-10, but don’t put too much credence on that game. Justin Herbert played with bad ribs on a short week without his star WR Allen, C Corey Linsley, or CB J.C. Jackson, and the Chargers also lost Bosa and LT Rashawn Slater mid-game. Losing six of its 10 best guys will do that.

The Chargers are much healthier now and finally look like the team everyone expected coming into the season. I’ll take the Chargers to cover for a Mega Bet.

Investors should note: As a favorite or an underdog of fewer than 2.5 pts, Trevor Lawrence is 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in his career.

Justin Herbert is money in revenge games. He’s 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS after losing to an opponent.

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2022 Bowl Season - Part 19 - The Rose Bowl

1/2/2023

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Cameron Rising threw for just under 3,000 yards

Rose Bowl – Utah +1.5 vs Penn State – Utah just keeps rolling. 2022 was another ten win season, another Pac-12 Championship, and it’s going to another Rose Bowl to face a Big Ten East team.

It’s Utah. You know what you’re getting. Great lines, great coaching, a great combination of toughness and confidence. Utah is one of five Power 5 teams that rank in the top 20 in both total offense and defense.

Few teams are able to dominate the clock like Utah can, with third down conversions coming at a 50% clip, and with the defense the best in the Pac-12 at coming up with third down stops.

The offense is led by QB Cameron Rising. Rising has thrown for nearly 3,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, posting a QBR (82.9) that ranks inside the top 10 in the country.

Utah’s offensive line is phenomenal, and it’s great at keeping defenses out of the backfield, but now it’s dealing with the Big Ten’s best pass rush and the best D at generating tackles for loss. There was the outlier against Michigan which ran for over 400 yards, but that was it for bad moments for the Penn State defensive front. It held Minnesota to 165 in a blowout win, and stuffed Auburn allowing 119 rushing yards in a 41-12 road blasting. No one else ran for more than 100 on the PSU defense.

The defense did take a hit when CB Joey Porter Jr. declared for the draft and opted-out. One of the nation’s best cover corners, Porter was rarely tested by opposing quarterbacks. He was a second-team All-American in 2022. The 6-foot-2, 194-pounder is a likely first-round pick in the spring.

Penn State might have been the most overlooked team in college football this season, as both of its losses came against teams that are in the College Football Playoff.

Nicholas Singleton was the Big Ten Freshman Player of the Year

A prolific offense helped drive their success. Penn State ranked third among Big Ten teams in scoring (35.8 ppg) and total offense (432.4 ypg) during the regular season. The Nittany Lions benefited from an experienced quarterback at the helm and dynamic young runners in the backfield.

QB Sean Clifford tallied 2,543 yards and 22 touchdowns through the air this season. Penn State is 6-1 this season when he puts up at least 200 passing yards.

RB Nicholas Singleton made an immediate game-changing impact during his debut season. Singleton broke Penn State's freshman record for rushing touchdowns during the regular season with 10. He earned Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors after posting 941 rushing yards and leads all FBS freshmen by averaging 6.32 yards per carry.

He will face a terrific Ute defensive front that held opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards seven times. But the real problem for the Nittany Lions might be control. As good as the running game is, and as terrific as the offense has been, it’s miserable on third downs.

Utah came up short in the Rose Bowl a year ago and the Utes worked all season to get back to this point and finish what they started. I’ll take a a hungry Utah team which dismantled USC in the Pac-12 Championship against the Nittany Lions, who floundered in other games against top-10 opponents earlier this season.

Put me down for a quatloo on the money line at +100

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