Plenty of great games as night begins to fall starting with

Notre Dame ML vs Ohio State - The Bucknuts have played one of the easiest schedules outside of Ann Arbor. And they have not been all that impressive Marvin Harrison Jr. may be the best WR in college football but QB Kyle McCord hasn't quite been able to get him the ball. 

Sam Hartman has been fantastic this year for the Domers and has a history of bringing his A game to big games. And coupled with a strong running game led by RB Audric Estime', ND has arguably one of the best offenses in the nation. 

I'll take the home team dog, vastly improved Notre Dame over a underwhelming Ohio State for a mini mega on the money line at +140.

Iowa @ Penn State should be a dandy but I'll pass on investing. IThe spread is priced about right as is the over/under. You might want to take a flyer on Penn State winning the Big Ten at +450 though. 

Some games that are worth investing on include

Sam Houston State +11.5 @ Houston - Sam Houston State may be 0-2 but they are 2-0 ATS thanks to an underrated defense.  The BearKats are allowing just 13.5 PPG holding BYU to just 14 points (the Cougars are averaging 31.0 PPG) and holding Air Force to just 13 points (averaging 31.3).

Meanwhile Houston is struggling on both sides of the ball. The offense ranks 92nd and the offense 127th. I'll take the points in a low scoring game. 

I'll also be investing in a night time money line parlay with

Penn State ML vs Iowa
North Carolina ML @ Pitt

The Penn State Iowa game may be priced right but it still means that the Nits will win comfortably.

​The same for North Carolina. Pitts offense is in shambles. North Carolina's defense is improved from last year and QB Drake Maye is have another great year behind a veteran offensive line. 

​The parlay calculates at -172 meaning a $100 investment returns a $59 profit. 

Remember the 2023 GO JUMBO trip is November 11th at the Westgate SuperBook

And now we get to the main feature. After a week 3 that had little to offer (but the finale of Colorado vs Colorado State was fantastic), now comes week 4 with a Malone load of great games. We get six games featuring ranked teams playing each other plus barely unranked Clemson hosting Florida State.

​Strap on your helmets, its going to be a great Saturday.

I went 3-3 last week making a small profit by taking  home dog Florida on the money line. I think I’ll lean into that strategy this week starting with:

Clemson ML vs Florida State -  Everyone remembers week 1 when FSU put a beat  on LSU and Duke curb stomping Clemson. But what if Clemson didn't completely botch every goal line opportunity against Duke? What if LSU didn't do the same early against Florida State in a game the Tigers led at the half? Would Clemson be getting points at home.

And what about last week when FSU struggled to put away Boston College, a team that lost to Northern Illinois and Holy Cross. The Eagles exposed the Noles vulnerability against the run. An issue that haven’t fixed from last year.
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Clemson’s veteran offensive line and RB Will Shipley will exploit this weakness. I’ll take the Tigers and put a quatloo on the money line at +110 . 

And if I'm wrong, I'll tip my hat and say goodbye to an ACC dynasty. The kings is dead, hail the new king. 

I've been having some nice returns on money line parlays. I'll put quatloo on a nooner ML parlay with

Kentucky ML @ Vanderbilt
Oklahoma ML @ Cincinnati and
​Texas A&M ML vs Auburn - NC State transfer Devin Leary is returning to form since donning a Wildcat uniform. It will be an easy day for him. Vanderbilt has one of the worst secondary's in the nation. 

Meanwhile the Dore's run game will go nowhere against Kentucky's defense.  Vanderbilt's offense is one dimensional and will try to keep up through the air. Won't happen.

​For the first time ever, Kentucky will start out 4-0 for three straight years. 

Cincinnati lost its head coach to Wisconsin and a bunch of players to the NFL. They may have beaten Pitt but followed it up with a loss to the MAC Miami. QB Emory Jones threw two interceptions and completed just 52% of his passes in that game.

Compare that to QB Dillon Gabriel has 14 incompletions and 11 touchdown passes for the season, hitting on 83% of his passes.. Oklahoma is on a mission, They are 3-0 ATS and have outscored opponents 167-28. Its a big step up in competition, and it might be tighter than expected but the Sooners will come away with the win. 

For Texas A&M it's a revenge game after last years humiliating 13-20 loss at Jordan Hare. Auburn has played a whole bunch of nothing and struggles to throw the ball. That's how Miami was able to beat A&M. Since coming to College Station, Jimbo  is 14-6 ATS record (70%) when favored by more than a touchdown at home

The parlay calculates at -123, winning $82 for every $100 invested. 

For the afternoon games I'll go with
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​Bucky Irving RB Oregon over 87.5 yards vs Colorado - It's sort of like Ali vs Frasier. Most people want the Ducks to shut down the loudmouth. Colorado may have talent at the skill positions, but in the great purge, they didn't bring in the hosses on the OL and DL. CSU exposed this last week by running all over the Buffs DL. Oregon will do the same. 
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I'm staying away from the spread. It's ripe for a backdoor cover. But I will invest in Irving, who has been averaging 8.0 yards per carry. He'll break a long one and get over 100 today.  

The Ducks may not cover but I will put them in another money line parlay with

​Oregon ML vs Colorado
Tennessee ML vs UTSA
Ohio ML @ Bowling Green and
South Alabama ML vs Central Michigan

And in a ranked matchup I'll take another ML dog with

UCLA ML @ Utah - I've been a fan of Utah for a long time. The win close games with defense and wearing teams down. But I think their luck runs out this week. There are just too many injuries.

QB Cam Rising is dinged up and may not play. They are also missing TE Brant Kuithe, center Johnny Maea, DE Connor O’Toole CB JaTravis Broughton, DT Junior Tafuna, and WRs Devaughn Vele, Mycah Pittman, and Munir McClain.kicker Cole Becker. Even their kicker is out. 

Meanwhile, Chip Kelly's ground game is rolling. RBs Carson Steele and T.J. Harden have formed a dynamic duo in the backfield. They’re each averaging more than 8 yards per carry with two touchdowns apiece. 

I'll take the Bruins in an upset over the depleted Utes.

​​More to come

All right, the elephant in the room. I’m not going to dwell on it other than, Mel, how stupid can you be? You deserved to be canned, for cause, for just being plain old dumb.

The rebuild goes back to square 1. Unless Da Bang Stick pulls out something like a 10-3 season with some quality upsets, the coaching search will be in full motion. At least it starts in the middle of the season instead of after National Signing Day.

What a moron.

Next up is Washington and our nemesis Michael Penix. He’s been torturing us more than Rodgers and Farve taunted the Lions. At least the pressure is off. Any type of a close game will be considered a victory for Harlon and Dantonio.
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Had an meh week last week going 2-3-1.

​The one was about as lucky as you can get. Utah was tied with Baylor with under a minute to go. The Utes get a first down in the redzone. Crap, Now the Utes will go for a walk off FG. 

Then I remembered. I turned to Mrs Doofus, "Watch, Baylor will let them score." And then this happened

When Baylor tried to let in Jaylon Glover, he smartly stayed out, but Baylor pushed him in. I was laughing my Mel off. Move, counter move, counter  counter move - brilliant!

Some quick observations about week 2

SEC! SEC! SEC! – uh nope. The SEC is looking pretty overrated right now. They have  lost six out of conference games so far, with Texas over Bama (I know, Texas will be there next year), Utah over Florida and four ACC teams taking down the SEC, North Carolina over South Carolina, Florida State over LSU, Miami (FL) over Texas A&M and Wake over Vandy.

In their past eight games, the Seminoles have tallied at least 35 points in each. That is the longest in the nation right now. And it hasn’t come against cupcakes, it  includes wins over LSU, Oklahoma, Florida, Miami and Georgia Tech.

Georgia has only one sack on the season.

The week 3 slate lacks a marquee matchup There’s not a single game that pits two ranked teams. And most ranked teams are heavy favorites. Of the 22 lined games, 12 are favored by 20+ points.

Alabama -34.0 @ South Florida - Saban coming off a loss? That's money. He needs some blow outs to get back into the CFP picture. He loves to roll up the score on bad teams. USF is a bad team Florida A&M just hung 374 yards on the Bulls defense. 

​I'm in for a quatloo. ​

Wyoming +29.0 @ Texas - Texas beat Bama! In Tuscaloosa no less. What a great team. The Horns are a very good team no doubt but look a little deeper. The Horns were up only 16-3 on Rice at the half and didn't score in the 4th quarter. 

And you've forgotten by now that Wyoming upset Texas Tech back in week1. It's a classic sandwich game for Texas having dispatched the Tide and in state rival Baylor up next. 

Put me in for a Mini Mega on the Cowboys. 

​Don't forget the GO JUMBO trip is November 11th at the Westgate SuperBook. 

For the afternoon bets I'll take

UTSA -14 vs Texas State – This game is the perfect example of don’t overreact to Week 1.Texas State beat Baylor as a 27.5 underdog while UTSA lost last week to Houston as a 2 point favorite.

Roadrunner QB Frank Harris looked terrible last week. I think he might be rusty after spending a good chunk of last year o3n the disabled list. He may have been missing his favorite WR De’Corian Clark too. He’ll be back

Texas State is just not good. UTSA will be focused in their home opener. Put me in for a quatloo

Week one had plenty of excitement with Florida State crushing LSU in the second half, Duke upsetting Clemson and Colorado taking receipts.

And the Doofus was excited too, starting the season 7-3. Hopefully that trend continues.

Plenty of intriguing matchups this week starting with
 
Alabama -7.5 vs Texas – This time next year, this will be a conference game. It’s a rematch of Bama’s 20-19 win on a FG with 10 seconds to go. Horn’s QB Quinn Ewers looks to pick up where he left off. He was knocked out of last years game with 1st and goal late in the 1st quarter.

 Both teams are loaded with NFL talent but Bama just doesn’t seem to be as loaded as in prior years. It’s a revenge game for Texas too.
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But I’m going with Bama to cover. The Longhorn DL struggled against a bad Rice team. Bama will dominate in the trenches. The hook keeps me from betting this one though. No quatloos.

Colorado -3.0 vs Nebraska – Is Colorado for real or was TCU a one hit wonder last year. Coming into the season, no one thought that this game was must see TV. But Prime, backed up what is big mouth preached in last weeks upset.

Lost in the huge upset win was how bad the Buff defense was. They failed to get a sack or tackle for loss and allowed TCU to convert 10 of 16 third downs. That is making Matt Rhule drool. His pro style grind it out offense is built to beat those type of defenses.

Yet, I’m still going with Colorado. Nebraska let up 8 of 17 third down conversions (with and over 7.8 yards to go). More disturbing is the way Nebraska just can’t win a one possession game.

I’ll hold my nose and put a quatloos on the Buffs.
 
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Wisconsin -6.0 @ Washington State – Another revenge game on tap with a twist. Wisconsin changed its head coach. Luke Fickell then brought in Phil Longo as OC who is known for his high scoring passing offenses. Add in QB transfer Tanner Mordecai and Bucky looks to move from it’s traditional dominant run game to beating you throw the air.

Washington State brought in a new OC too, Ben Arbuckle from Western Kentucky. He also looks to put beat you through the air. Good news for QB Cam Ward who struggled against Wisconsin last year, throwing for only 200 yards.

Wisconsin is the better team but may have difficulty with the long road trip to Pullman. I’ll take Bucky but no quatloos.

Some games I will be investing in though.

Utah -7.5 @ Baylor - I usually preach don’t overreact to week 1. Teams that start off on the wrong foot quickly make changes and bite you in the back pocket.

But what was that Baylor? There’s upsets but the Bears were dominated by really bad Texas State team.

Utah is today’s Mark Dantonio Spartan teams at their best. Sound dominating football. They will easily dispatch a Baylor team that looks totally lost. Put me in for the first Mega Bet of the year. 

​More to come​

Still one game to go,  but here is a recap of Week
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Of course the big news from the big mouth Prime is that Colorado is for real. Putting in the biggest “us against the world” mantra ever, Prime said “"We told you we coming. You thought we was joking and guess what, we keep receipts." Ignoring the pathetic grammar - No doubt it was a stunning win. Most everyone was hoping his callous revamp of the roster would fall flat on its face. But it didn’t. It worked.

Lost in all the hoopla about his kid at QB and Travis Hunter's brilliant tow way play, was that his OC is an offensive master mind. Sean Lewis implemented his Flash Fast offense in Boulder and it worked to perfection.

But it was against a Sonny Dykes defense that has always struggled keeping opponents out of the end zone. A better test will come this week against Matt Rhule and Nebraska.

Colorado is the team everyone is going to love to hate.

Boston College HC Jeff Hafley is firmly on the Hot Seat. After going 3-9 last year, he started out the season with a loss to the Rocky Lombardi led (yes he is still around) Huskies of Northern Illinois. It was the second win by NIU over an ACC team after beating Georgia Tech in the 2021 season opener. 

Sorry Dwink, but Army season looks to be a disaster. Swapping out the traditional triple option offense for a shotgun offense resulted in a 17-13 loss to a bad UL Monroe team, averaging 3.5 yards rushing on 50 attempts. 

Granted it was New Mexico, but Texas A&M and new OC Bobby Petrino just hung 52 points on the Lobos in a 52-10 win.

It was one of the best games of last year. LSU, after being down 14 points came screaming back with a 99 yard TD drive with 2 seconds left and then this
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The game should be just as exciting. The loser will still be in the hunt for a conference title while the winner will be in the conversation for a national title.. Last year, both teams built off the game FSU went 10-3 while LSU ended up in the SEC championship game. 

​Last year they played in the SuperDome. This year they face off in Orlando in the Camping World Bowl.  Strangely, both teams ended up here during bowl season too. The Seminoles defeated Oklahoma 35-32 in the Cheez-It Bowl on Dec. 29. Four days later, LSU defeated Purdue 63-7 in the Citrus Bowl. 

And it's actually third straight year that LSU HC Brian Kelly and HC Mike Norvell have faced each in their opening game. Back in 2021 while in South bend, Kelly's Notre Dame team beat Norvell's FSU 41-38 in OT

Vegas is expecting it to be just as exciting game as last year, setting the line at LSU -2.5 and the over/under at 56.5

LSU -2.5 @ Florida State - Both teams are loaded with NFL talent. Each offense features a dynamic quarterback -- Jayden Daniels of the Tigers and the Seminoles' Jordan Travis, both of whom threw two touchdown passes in last year's meeting.

Two elite quarterbacks that can run, throw and are elusive," Kelly said. He's right. Watch this run by Jordan Davis against Florida

Each team has a flaw that viewers should keep an eye out for. FSU dropped from 19th to 91st in opponents scoring inside the 40, primarily to the inability to stop the run. If Daniels can keep the chains moving and get to the other side of field - advantage LSU

​For LSU, its the rehaul of their secondary. The Tiger nickel and safety combo of Major Burns and Sage Ryan forced just seven incompletions on 51 targets in 2022. Former MSU WR Keon Coleman is licking his chops to get after those two. 

This is rated as a pick 'em game so I hate to give the points. But I'll go with LSU to extract revenge from last year. Put me in for a quatloo. 

​For the other games today I'll go with

Oregon State -16. vs San Jose State - Going with the bet against the week 0 team here. Oregon State. SJSU just let up 56 point to USC. Not that Oregon State is that good but the other Spartan defense is bad. The Beavers just picked up DJ Uiagalelei from Clemson. He should have no problem 

Oregon State's actually has a defense. Oregon State should be able to own the trenches on both sides of the ball. 

​Put me down for a quatloo for OSU to cover.

Bummer, Jimmy Buffett passed last night. Rest in paradise. 

This is for the Big Flippy, a huge fan. He went to annual concerts with Mrs Flippy. Their wedding reception was Parrothead themed blast. 

Also last night - just get the win baby!

That’s what the Spartans did. And we got some insight as to how the season might play out. Kim had an ugly start but settled in. The wide receivers were dropping balls when Kim got it to them but they settled in too. Made some nice catches. Running Back? Much better than last year. Carter is a stud. Defense? The secondary wasn’t tested deep but it looks fine.

Was there enough there to show they can do better than 6-6? Not really, but 6-6 looks more like the floor than the ceiling.
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The Labor Day is finally kicking in after some nice opening acts on Thursday and Friday, we get into the meat of the football slate. Here some investments I'll be making

Not a bad start to to Week 1, I went 2-1. Would have been 3-0 except UCF scored a meaningless TD with 56 seconds left. Ask the Big Guy how he feels about Malzahn. That’s the way I feel. Still, a profitable start.
 
Nothing stands out for Friday investing. Good thing, I can just watch and enjoy Spartan football.

As far as the Green and White, let’s just say expectations are low. The gang’s group think is somewhere around 6-6 and a December bowl game. Sounds about right. We may have one of the toughest schedules out there (generally ranked in the top 5 most difficult) but it’s similar to last year and we went 5-7. Should have been 6-6 but the special teams dropped a turd against Indiana.  

We lose Payne at QB but he was ineffective without KWIII. We lost our two top WRs and the pass defense s been doing the bullfighting olé ever since Mel arrived.

There’s the usual chatter during the offseason, lots of chemistry, this position room is as stacked as ever, really seeing progress from this guy and that guy. It’s all the same BS every season. Pay no attention, it’s just click bait until the season starts.

But the bottom line is if Mel does go 6-6 the hot seat gets really cranked up. The cry will be “We didn’t pay $95 million for that.” By the way, does it really matter how much we pay him. If we paid him $3 million and went 6-6 would you feel better? Is there a graph where the Y axis is amount paid and the X axis is wins and your satisfaction level is whether the HC is above or below the line? Nah - you just really care about the X axis.
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6-6 on the X axis won’t cut it. He won’t get canned but the search will start behind the scenes. Progress will start around 8-4 and we beat one of the big four on the schedule Washington, Ohio State, scUM or Penn State.

Before we get into the rest of Friday’s action here’s an investing analytic I came across. College football differs from the NFL in that there is a week 0.

So who has the advantage in week 1, a team that played week 0 or the team that starts out in Week 1? A week 0 team has a chance to see their team in actual playing conditions, they can make adjustments from real time play. But the Week 1 team has film on the week 0 team and has all fall practice to prepare versus the week 0 team that now has just one week.

Turns out that the Week 1 team playing against a Week 0 team (that played a Div 1A team in week 0) covers at a 63% clip going back to 2005. Impressive.
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Based on that stat you may want to fade USC (hosting Nevada), San Jose State (hosting Oregon State) UMass (at Auburn) La Tech (at SMU) and Hawaii (hosting Hawaii).

Even though I’m going to pass on Friday action I will get a jump on some Noon Saturday games:

The kinks are worked out, you’re feeling limber. Are you ready for 5 straight days of college football? Starting tonight, we have games on Thursday Friday, a huge slate on Saturday and then warm downs on Sunday with a grand finale on Monday. You better stock up on your favorite adult beverages. There’s lots of football watching in your future. 

And on the first night of action, we get a Group of Five powerhouse making its Power 5 debut, a Big ten divisional matchup and a ranked Power 5 team against an historical blue blood. Now that’s the way to kick off the season.
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Here’s my picks for tonight.

Utah -4.5 vs Florida – Utah came up just short against Florida in a 29-26 loss. It was the highlight of the season for the Gators as they went 6-6 barely making a bowl game. UF loses QB Anthony Richardson and will start the underwhelming former Badger Graham Mertz.

The line has swung dramatically once it was announced that Ute QB Cam Rising won’t be playing nor will their best receiver, TE Brant Kuithe is also out. But the defense is stout, returning 9 starters, the 10th most returning production in Div 1A

I’m going to take the Utes. The defense will stop the pedestrian Gator offense, it’s a revenge game, at home, in the mountains. Put me in for a Mini Mega

Nebraska @ Minnesota Under 43.0 – The Huskers Scott Frost experiment was a bust. Matt Rhule is the next in the long line of HCs trying to resurrect the Nebraska program. He will run a more run orientated pro style offense. His QB is Georgia Tech transfer Jeff Sims. Sims is a terrific runner but horrible passer.

Minnesota loses star RB Mohamed Ibrahim who is replaced by the mediocre Western Michigan transfer Sean Tyler. QB Tanner Morgan is gone too. His replacement, Athan Kaliakmanis, was average at best after Morgan went down for the last five games of last season.

After Week 0, Vegas quickly realized the running clock this year is going to being down the totals. I still think that’s the play here with two run teams with less than adequate replacements. I’m in for a quatloo.