Saquon Barkley over 10.5 yards receiving – The Packers and Eagles square of at 4:30 in a ket NFL playoff matchup. But I’m staying away from taking a side. Both QBs are going to play but both are coming off injuries that cause me concern.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts entered concussion protocol during the Week 17 battle against the Redskins. It has to be worrying for Eagle fans that he failed to exit the protocol during the idle week.

GB QB Jordan Love Jordan Love banged his arm in the Week 18 game against the Bears and had to leave with some sort of injury. It didn’t look like he had feeling in his fingers, which would obviously be problematic with a game coming up on no rest.

Christian Watson was knocked out with an injury as well. We’ve seen over the past two seasons that the Packers aren’t the same without Watson, which makes sense because they have a bunch of No. 2 receivers who can’t take the top off the ball. 

I lean to Philly to cover the 4.5 spread but no quatloos
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Instead I’ll make a prop bet on Saquon Barkley. Barkley isn’t used all that often as a receiver out of the backfield, but given that Jalen Hurts is coming off a concussion, I imagine the coaching staff will want to make things easier for him. Also, the Packers give up lots of production to receiving backs.  

​Tampa Bay -3.0 vs Washington – In week 1, Washington QB Jayden Daniels was 17-of-24 for 184 yards, and rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns. But much of that came in garbage time. Tampa Bay won easily 37-20.

The Buccaneers, love to blitz defensively. Daniels hasn’t been as efficient against the blitz with a 45% success rate against the blitz compared to 52% when he’s not under pressure. It will be up to Daniels to win the game though as he won’t be able to lean on the running game. The Buccaneers have one of the best ground defenses in the NFL, so neither Brian Robinson Jr. nor Austin Ekeler will have much success finding running room. 

While the Redskins won’t be able to run the ball effectively, the Bucs will be able run at will against the Skins. Washington has one of the weakest run defenses of all the teams in the playoffs, Bucky Irving is drooling about this matchup. He has as been phenomenal since taking over as the primary back for Tampa Bay.

I’ll marry up the investment with a player prop

Bucky Irving over 100 yards rushing +130

Buffalo -13.5 vs Denver +166 – Don’t over think this one. It’s going to be a blow out. Denver doesn’t belong in the playoffs and f they didn’t expand the playoffs, they would not be here.

Denver has just one true win over a playoff team. That was early this season against the Bucs, before anyone thought they were a playoff team — and no, the Chiefs in Week 18 don't count. The Broncos were 1-6 against teams with 10+ wins this season.

Denver QB Bo Nix had a strong rookie season, but he's still a rookie starting in his first playoff game, on the road, in cold weather. There's also questions as to the quality of defenses Nix has faced, with Denver facing the eighth-easiest opposing defensive schedule.

Buffalo loves to play two-high safety zone looks, which should keep explosive plays down for the Broncos. Nix tends to struggle against zone coverages as well, throwing nine of his 12 interceptions this year against zone.

Houston +3.0 vs LA Chargers - The Chargers have not stopped the run well since the end of November, which was when Denzel Perryman was lost to an injury. He is listed as questionable today with a groin injury. Even if he plays he will be hobbled.

Joe Mixon figures to rip through the Chargers’ run defense. This will put Stroud into favorable down-and-distance situations. He’ll have plenty of success hooking up with Nico Collins, as the Chargers have some issues in the secondary as well.

Th Chargers are a bit overrated too,  While they did have 11 victories, eight of those 11 victories were against below .500 teams (8-1), and only three (3-5) were against above .500 teams. Two of those wins came against the Denver Broncos, the AFC’s 7 seed. The Bolts have the lowest strength of victory of all 14 playoff teams. The Chargers were 12-4-1 ATS but 2-5 ATS against playoff teams, one again both against Denver

That said, Houston, despite winning another AFC South division title, has looked a bit off all year. C.J. Stroud has had a sophomore slump, largely due to season-ending injuries at receiver, specifically Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. The offensive line has also allowed a lot of pressure, and Stroud was sacked 52 times, second-most in the league this season.

On the other side, Justin Herbert was sacked 41 times (7th most) and the Chargers OL could have its hands full with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter drawing so much focus off the edge and Tim Settle getting pressure up the middle.

This looks to be a toss up type of game so I’ll take Houston and the points

I’ll also do a prop bet of based on Perryman not at full strength of he plays

Joe Mixon 80+ yards +135​

Pittsburgh +9.5 vs Pittsburgh - This line is completely out of control.  Ravens-Steelers games are almost always close, and now Baltimore wllll be  missing its No. 1 WR Zay Flowers.

​Football fans know this matchup all too well, and bettors typically know exactly what to do in Steeler vs Ravens matchups: You always take the under, and you always want the underdog, especially as 'dogs of a field goal or more.

Nine straight matchups between these teams had finished within one score until Baltimore blew Pittsburgh out a few weeks ago, and the last six matchups before that one had finished at 34 points or fewer.

Yeah, the Ravens throttled the Steelers 34-17 in their last matchup but 7 of those points came on a pick six and Russel Wilson fumbled the ball at the Ravens 4.

 If there’s one team that knows how to slow down Lamar Jackson, it’s the Steelers. Pittsburgh built its defense to combat Jackson, after all. There’s a reason why the Ravens have difficulty reaching 20 points in this rivalry. They did so in the prior meeting, but seven of those points came off a pick-six.

 The forecast calls for low 30s with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH, making this a “windy under” low scoring type game.

I’ll take the points in what should be a low scoring game.

Given the windy conditions I’ll also do a prop bet of

Lamar Jackson under 217.5 yards -110 ​

​I learned my lesson. Once again the under was looking good at the half and even better after 3. And then the 4th quarter happens. In Texas vs ASU it took a doink and OT and I lost the under. Last night, after scoring 20 points in the first three quarter, the fourth quarter opens up with four straight TDs. Arrrgh! From now on if I feel the under thunder, I’ll just do it for the first half.

Ohio State -6.0 vs Texas – There wasn’t a dominant team in college football this season... until the Ohio State Buckeyes hit the CFP, obliterating Tennessee and Oregon in the first two rounds.

Meanwhile, Texas has looked shaky in its CFP run, with its defense giving up explosive play after explosive play to Clemson and Arizona State. The Horns were a bad non-targeting call away from not being in the Cotton Bowl.

The spread opened at 4.5 but has ballooned to 6.0 based on the OSU performance.

Penn State vs Notre Dame Under 45.5 –  The Semifinals kick off with a matchup of two of the best defenses in the land. Notre Dame allowed the 2nd fewest PPG while Penn State was 7th. These are two top-10 defenses by yards per play as well, with Notre Dame fifth and Penn State seventh.

The Irish run an uber-aggressive unit, blitzing at a very high rate of 36%,  while playing man coverage on the back end. Penn State QB Drew Allar’s has struggled under pressure, completing less than half his passes in pressured pockets (47%). Allar's tendency to tuck the ball and take a sack has cost the Penn State offense numerous drives all season. Minnesota, Ohio State, SMU and Boise State all produced double-digit pressures, generating 11 sacks to just three throwaways from Allar.

Penn State can run the ball, but that will create more methodical drives than explosive drives, churning the clock and limiting possessions.

I’ll match the investments with two team total bets

Notre Dame Under 21.5 +100 and
Penn State Under 21.5 -130

I’ll also hedge the unders with some player prop bets

Prop bet #1:  Penn State RB Nick Singleton Over 27.5 receiving yards – When Allar is under pressure (and not taking sacks) he loves to dump the ball off to his RB Nick Singleton. Singelton caught 39 passes for 342 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Digging deeper, most of those catches happened in the biggest games.

Against USC, where Penn State needed a big comeback, Singelton caught four balls for 39 yards. Next week at Wisconsin, which was a one-point game midway through the fourth quarter, he had three for 37. The biggest game of the year was against Ohio State, and he went for six grabs and 54 yards. And in the Big Ten Championship, he had four and 43. 
 
Penn State WR Harrison Wallace 45+ yards Receiving - Wallace is Penn State’s leading receiver after TE Tyler Warren and will be the go-to guy for Drew Allar on the outside in this game. I expect Notre Dame to blanket Warren giving more targets to Wallace. Wallace is a deep-ball threat, averaging over 15 yards per catch this season. Georgia had an incredibly inexperienced quarterback making his first career start in the quarterfinals against Notre Dame and he still managed to hit some deep shots down the field, including a 67-yard longest completion. A couple deep balls to Wallce should get the over.
Interesting Tidbit – The last time Notre Dame and Penn State played in 2007 was the first Penn State white out game. 

I watched the Georgia Notre Dame game at the local UGA watering hole. I went an hour before game time and it was packed, They love their Dawgs down here. I went in wearing some Georgia Tech gear which brought some hoots and hollers. And during the game quietly rooted for Notre Dame. The Domers dominated and I was of the few left in the establishment as the game ended.

We are down to three more non CFP games for the 2024 Bowl Season with two tonight.

Here’s what I will be investing in:

Texas State -14.0 v North Texas  – North Texas was terrible against the run (117th) and even worse against the pass (121st). Overall, they were 120th is scoring defense (35.8 PPG).

The Mean Green were able to make it to a bowl by outscoring their opponents through a prolific passing game. Too bad that their starting QB Chandler Morris will be transferring to Virginia and sitting this one out. True freshman Drew Mestemaker will get the call after throwing just five passes during the regular season.

Minnesota -9.5 vs Va Tech - Minnesota enters its final game of the season at 7-5, but it's much better than that record suggests. The Gophers started the season with a heartbreaking loss to North Carolina, lost by three at scUM* and fell by just a single point to CFP semifinalist Penn State. The Gophers finished the year 5-2 winning streak getting better as QB Max Brosmer gained full comfort in a new offensive system.

Va Tech will likely be without starting QB Kyron Drones. Backup QB Collin Schlee is also questionable for the bowl game. Even with Drones, the Hokies were a poor passing team averaging 192.8 passing yards (104th). Likely starter freshman  William “Pop” Watson will be thrown the wolves against a stout Gopher defense. Minnesota surrendered 17.5 points (10th),  290.9 total yards (5th) per game, 178.3 passing yards (14th) and 112.6 rushing yards (17th).

Brosmer will be playing, facing a Hokie roster devastated by opt out. Va Tech will be down 26 starters including their three best starters in the secondary. In addition, DC Chris Marve was relieved of his duties so the defense will have some unfamiliarity.   

Minnesota will simply have too much on both sides of the ball for a Hokie team that will suffer from inexperience and a lack of reps together. 

Minnesota -6.5 vs Va Tech 1st half - Minnesota likes to make teams grind out drives in the opening half, as only two of its last seven opponents surpassed the 10-point mark prior to halftime. USC, UCLA, Illinois, and Maryland each scored exactly 10 first-half points, while Wisconsin was held scoreless.

I started out the New Year with a nice 4-2 start. Coulda been 5-1 but that ol’ snake bit me again. Texas was about to win the game in regulation with a chip shot FG and preserve the under but their great kicker doinks it and forces OT. Nothing kills under more than OT and of course they go into double OT with TDs all over the place.

I'm not going to get into it about why this game was postponed only to say that hate only breeds more hate. 

​I started out the New Year with a nice 4-2 start. Coulda been 5-1 but that ol’ snake bit me again. Texas was about to win the game in regulation with a chip shot FG and preserve the under. But their great kicker doinks it and forces OT. Nothing kills under more than OT and of course they go into double OT with TDs all over the place.

Notre Dame ML vs Georgia -110 - The Sugar Bowl will be a brawl between two teams with elite defenses. Points will be hard to come by, and this one will likely be decided late in the fourth quarter.

Mississippi vs Duke Under 51 – Duke will be down to their 3rd string QB as starter Malik Murphy opted out to transfer to Auburn, and backup Grayson Loftis entered the transfer portal because of Tulane’s Darian Mensah’s incoming transfer. That leaves the Blue Devil offense in the hands of Henry Belin IV.  

The Blue Devils also lost leading rusher Star Thomas to the portal. The Blue Devils are one of a dozen teams that average fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, and the Rebels surrender the second-fewest rushing yards in the country, forcing Duke to rely even more heavily on Belin. 
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Ole Miss went over the total only twice all season as the Rebs have a stellar defense allowing just 13.9 PPG (3rd).

Lane Kiffin has been tweeting how his team will be fired up after just missing the CFP. We heard the same noise from Bama and that didn’t exactly work out, did it. So I will stay away from the spread. Also, Lane may keep bench his starters at some point in order to save them for next season. 

If that is the case I'll also add in

Mississippi -9.5 first half 

I'll throw a player prop in here too

Mississippi WR Cayden Lee over 70 yards receiving - Leading WR Tre Harris is out for the game meaning more targets for Lee and Jordan Watkins, Lee racked up over 80 yards in 4 of the last 6 games while Harris has been out. ​

Happy New Year everyone! Mrs Doofus rang in the New Year with friends, adult beverages, euchre and of course football!

Ive been snakebit the last few days. I went 1-3 yesterday but could have been 3-1. Except, Washington scored a TD, but decided to go for two, missed it and I lost. Then, Baytor came up short by 4 points on the team total, having a TD pass overturned, a punt return for a TD come back with a penalty and worst of all, getting to the 5 yard line first and goal and doesn’t score.

Maybe the luck will turn with the ringing in the New Year. So here we go for today’s playoff games.

Texas vs Arizona State Under 52.0 – I quitting on my New Years resolution on New Years Day. Must be a record. I said no more unders but that was so 2024.

In going for unders, you are relying on both teams draining the clock by running the ball and that is what we have here. Both teams are heavily run dependent.

For ASU, star RB Cam Scattebo has been a load to take down, rushing for 1,568 yards at a clip of 6.0 yards per carry and scoring 19 touchdowns. But he faces a defense which is among the best in the country. Texas’ defensive front is arguably the best in the CFP field. The Longhorns are eighth in yards allowed per carry (3.1) and ninth in rush yards allowed per game (104.5). 

Washington ML vs Louisville – Another casualty of the opt out contagion, Louisville will be without its starting QB  Tyler Shough along with his top two WRs. Washington had an advantage here anyway as Washington's secondary was elite this season, ranking fifth in Pass Success Rate allowed and 10th in yards per pass allowed.

The Cards will also be missing  five key contributors on defense as well including stud DE Ashton Gillotte.

Washington QB Demond Williams Jr. took over late in the year for Will Rogers. He dazzled against #1 Oregon in the last regular season game, connected on 85% of his passes against a stifling Ducks' defense. This is key as the Cardinals are weak against the pass.  squandering an average of 225 passing yards per game, pegging them 75th. Williams should have a cleaner pocket with Gillotte not playing.

I’ll take the fuller Washington roster against Louisville depleted squad.

Baylor Team Total Over 36.5 +120 vs LSU - Big 12 schools tend to thrive on offense, and Baylor was one of the best. This season's squad averaged 434.5 yards and 34.7 points per contest. The Bears improved as the season went on scoring at least 37 points in five of their last six games, averaging 41.3 ppg.
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LSU has so any players opting out they just mail it in in this contest. I don’t trust the LSU offense to keep up and get the overall total 

That’s it – no more unders for me. I either take overs or pass. Speaking of which I will take an over on

Penn State vs Boise State over 54.0 – The Penn State offense has picked up steam as the season has progressed causing QB Drew Allar’s draft stock to rise. The Nits put up 38 points or more in three straight games and four of the last five.

The Boise State defense has been pretty stout against the run throughout the regular season, but it hasn't faced a team like Penn State. When it faced Oregon earlier in the year,  it gave up 37 points.

On the other side, Penn State’s defense has been pretty stout against the run too but it has not played against a RB like Ashton Jeanty. He racked up 2,497 yards with 29 touchdowns on 7.3 yards per carry. Expect some explosive plays.

​In the same game I’ll take:

Penn State -11.0 vs Boise State – While Boise State may have Jeanty, the Nits have one of the best RB combos in the nation with in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. If the last two games were any indication — 293 rushing yards against top-ranked Oregon in the Big Ten Championship and 189 in a blowout over SMU — the Nittany Lions should have their way against te 78th ranked Boise State rush defense.
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The discrepancy is even bigger when it comes to the passing game. Penn State sits third nationally in Passing Success Rate, while Boise State ranks 58th.

Penn State has proven it can contend on the big stage, suffering one-possession losses to Ohio State and Oregon. Now, it's all about getting over the hump.

Alabama -16.5 vs scUM*- this is a double revenge spot for Alabama. Not only did scUM* defeat the Tide in the CFP semifinal, it then knocked out their current head coach Kalen DeBoer and his Washington team in the National Championship game.

Expect Alabama to run up the score in this matchup.

Few of Alabama's top players have opted out. The same can not be saif of scUM*. An offense that was pretty bad to begin with (100th in points per game and 117th in yards per play) will be without its two top rushing and receiving options.

Despite some slow starts this season, the Crimson Tide offense was still one of the most explosive in the country. They finished seventh in points per play and 17th in yards per play. They will face a defense that will have significant opt outs in the DL and secondary.

The revenge will be sweet.

​More to come today