Last week the favored teams went 5-1 against the spread. I’s going the opposite this week taking the dogs, starting with:
 
Cincinnati +4.0 @ Tennessee – Derrick Henry is back baby. The public is pounding the Titans moving this line up to 4.0. But Cincinnati is pretty good against the run (5th in YPG) and I’m pretty sure he won’t be 100%. Tennessee’s whole offensive philosophy is to establish Henry to set up the play action pass. If Henry is a bit hobbled that strategy goes out the window.
​
Meanwhile Cincinnati will be able to expose the Titans secondary which finished 25th overall this year. The Tians are especially vulnerable against slot receivers so Tyler Boys should be in for a good day. Tennessee is not as good as the Raider against the run so Joe Mixon should have an impact as well

The spread is too high for me. I’ll take the Bengals to cover. ​

San Francisco +5.5 @ Green Bay – The Niners chances got a huge boost when Nick Bosa cleared the concussion protocol. Bosa will be able to pressure Rodgers since the Green Bay OL sucks.

Fred Warner is also expected to play against the Pack. With Warner on the field, AJ Dillon won’t be able to take over if Green Bay gets up late.

Green Bay struggles against the run and TEs across the middle so Kittle and Samuel are in for big days too.
​
This line is perhaps the farthest off of the day. I’m going with a Mega Bet on the Niners and the points. I’ll even throw in a quatloo on the Niners to win outright. The NIners just seem to have the Packs number 

Tampa Bay -2.5 vs LA Rams – Even though I placed a wager on the Rams to win the NFC at the beginning of the season, the road stops here. Lost in the pummeling of the Cardinals on Monday is that Stafford threw only 17 times.

As Lions fans know, Stafford gets hurt every year. This year it’s his back. The Rams covered up his injury by running roughshod over the Cardinals. They won’t be able to run on the Bucs which allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards this year.

Tampa Bay is not without its problems too. They are down two of the best WRs leaving Jalen Ramsey able to focus and limit Mike Evans. Fournette is also out so the Bucs will struggle to run the ball.
​
All in I would rather bet on a healthy Brady over an injured Stafford. In a revenge game for TB at home I’ll put a quatloo on the Bucs and the points. I’ll also put a quatloo on the under 48.0

Buffalo ML @ Kansas City – I’m jumping on the band wagon. The Bills pitched a perfect game last week against New England. It was awesome, 7 drives, 7 TDs against Belichick no less. He had more TDs (5) than incompletions (4) I was telling Pete just the other day that I thought Josh Allen was going to be a bust when he was drafted. I’ll admit I’m wrong but happily so.

He’s facing a Chiefs defense he torched back in week 5, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 59 yards and another score. Mahomes struggled in that game netting on 272 yards on 54 attempts with most of the damage done in garbage time But Mahomes really sucked in the beginning of the season and should do better this weekend. Still the Bills are terrific against the pass so Mahomes will still have issues. The Bills are susceptible against the run meaning Jerick McKinnon could do some damage.
​
It’s a revenge game for the Chiefs at home but I’m still on the red hot Bills. Put me in for a quatloo on the money line. Put me down for a Mini Mega on the Bills to win the Super Bowl too at 5-1. 

​Alabama Money Line +120 vs Georgia – No Gatorade bath. That was what Kirby was telling his team as the Dawgs were closing out the game against an outmanned scUM. Keep the Kool-Aid in the keg, there’s more work to be done.

Georgia was never worried about the Blue. They were using the game as a televised scrimmage to prepare for this game. There are lots of fixes needed for UGA if they want to be competitive in the rematch.

Few outside the southeast wanted an all SEC championship but these are the two best teams this year. scUM and Cincinnati were embarrassed. Who else has a chance? Notre dame? They lost to the Bearcats. Ohio State? They needed everything in the tank to beat Utah (I’m still pissing and moaning about that game, if the Utes had won, I would have won the confidence pool).

Two, Stetson Bennett needs to play like he has been there before. When Georgia needed him last time he played like a deer in the headlights. He had his first multi-pick game of the year.

And if Georgia can keep Bama from early quick strikes, RB Zamir White can be more of a factor. In the SEC championship game, he was held to fallow 27 yards.

​But it won’t happen. Saban was making adjustments too. No, he didn’t show his hand in slapping around Cincinnati. If amateur pundits like me can see what needs to be done, sure as feces Saban can see it too. He knows what Kirby is going to do and has the counter punches ready. 

This is not the Alabama dreadnaught of prior years. Tank Bigsby stays inbounds in the Iron bowl and Bama isn’t even in the playoffs. Yet, somehow, some way, they make the plays when they are needed. And they will in this game too.​

​No, it won’t be the same as game 1. It’s a rematch, not a repeat. Bama will be more balanced on offense as Georgia will play safer in the back end of the defense.

These two teams are about to stock NFL rosters next year and are about to put on a show. It will be a classic, just like the Iron Bowl with Bama holding off Georgia late in a low scoring game.

Sometimes the analysis is simple. Who do you trust more? Saban and Bryce Young or Kirby and Stetson Bennett? I’m going with a Mini Mega on Bama and the money line. 
​
Just let the Saxy Lady know I'll be rooting for UGA though​

​​North Carolina -9.5 vs South Carolina – This will be a game of strength on strength and weakness on weakness. The North Carolina offense, 17th overall, will battle a solid Gamecock defense, 8th against the pass. Meanwhile the South Carolina offense, 116th overall, 110th in that will be led by the converted graduate assistant will face off with the Tar Heels' 101st ranked scoring defense.

In a bowl season chock full of opt outs, UNC QB Sam Howell bucked the trend and will be playing in the game. He was one of the best QBs in the game. In his three seasons, Howell completed 63.9% of his pass for 10,078 yards with 91 touchdowns vs 23 interceptions. 

Howell showed he could run a little bit too, After only rushing for a total of 181 yards in his first two seasons he reeled off 825 yards on the ground, scoring 11 touchdowns, making him the second-leading rusher on the team.

​The strength for the  Gamecocks is an excellent pass defense, but they will also be without their top pass rusher. DE Kingley Enagbare who led the team with 4.5 sacks, is doing the opt out thing. He will be missed as UNC is terrible in pass protection allowing 45 sacks this year.

South Carolina has a huge problem against teams that can run. The Cock allowed over 200 rushing yards five times in the last nine games. They went 0-5.

Can UNC get the ground game going?. It cranked up 300 yards or more in three of the last four games and 220 or more in six of the last seven. Yeah, I think so.

Don’t underestimate the intensity of this game. UNC hates it when South Carolina refers to themselves as Carolina. With Howell deciding to play in this game, it will give North Carolina that spark needed The Heels will be fired up and roll.

​ I’ll lay the points for a quatloo.

Tennessee -6.0 vs Purdue – Both the Boilermakers and the Vols exceeded expextations this year. Purdue finished the regular season above .500 for the first time since 2007 while picking up some memorable upsets along the way. couple of huge upsets over and No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes and some other team that I can’t seem to recall.

For Tennessee, it was the only power conference team with a rookie head coach to win at least seven games this season.

Josh Heupel's up-tempo offense, imported from Central Florida, quickly clicked, with the Volunteers ranking ninth nationally in scoring at 38.8 points per game while piling up 458.7 yards per contest.
​
QB Hendon Hooker makes the offense go. passing for 2,567 yards, 26 touchdowns with just three interceptions. He also ran for 561 yards and five TDs. He led all SEC quarterbacks in passer rating (182.2) and ranks third nationally in passing yards per attempt (9.8). 

And while the Volunteers' passing game is dangerous, the ground game which ranked 19th nationally, churning out 212.0 rushing yards per game, may actually be the strength of the offense. As explosive as Vol's passing game can be, pass protection has been a major liability for an offensive line that surrendered an SEC-worst 42 sacks during the regular season.

Purdue’s bread and butter is its passing attack. Aidan O'Connell led the way for a Purdue offense that averaged 423.4 yards and 27.5 PPG ranking 8th overall. O’Connell had 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions for the season. He was particularly dominant down the stretch with 407 YPG, 14 touchdowns and no interceptions over the Boilermakers' final four games. He should find some success against a Tennessee's defense that had its fair share of struggles, allowing 27.5 points and 404.6 yards per game.

The Boiler, however, attack will be set back as its top two WRs in David Bell and Milton Wright won’t be playing. Bell, a first-team All-American opted out to focus on the draft. Wright, who led Purdue in touchdown catches during the regular season, did not make the trip to Nashville for undisclosed reasons. The Boilermakers will likely be without starting left tackle Greg Long as well.

The Boiler defense was excellent against the pass  allowing just 194.6 YPG game (21st). The Boilermakers also had just as many interceptions (13) to their credit as passing touchdowns allowed (13) during the regular season. But the will be missing two key pieces. DE George Karlaftis, a likely top 10 pick will prepare for the draft. where he's a projected top-10 pick. Purdue will also be missing one of their best CBs in Dedrick Mackey
 
The Vols high-octane style on offense will provide a different challenge than Purdue sees for much of the season in the Big Ten West, and the Boilermakers just won't have enough with their best player on each side of the ball both opting out. Add in a virtual home game in Nashville and I’ll lay the points and take the Vols for a quatloo. 

Michigan State -3.0 vs Pitt – This game will come down to who will miss their star player more. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett opted out for the draft where he will be a day 1 pick. State’s star RB Kenneth Walher III also opted out. He’s likely a 3rd round pick.

Backup Pitt QB Nick Patti will be auditioning for the starting job next year as former USC QB Kedon Slovis will be a Panther is coming to Pitt for 2022. Patti will be taking plays from a new voice too as OC Mark Whipple is headed to Nebraska. You remember Mr Whipple, he stunk up the joint as the UMass HC.
​
Patti must be salivating at the chance to show his stuff against the worst pass defense in Div 1A football. He better be sharp, since State can get after the QB and there’s no run game to rely on. ​

State will miss K9 but the tandem of Jordon Simmons and Elijah Collins should keep the Pitt rush defense honest. It’s a damn good rush defense too finishing 6th overall.

This game will be decided by States passing attack against the Pitt pass defense. Pitt may be able to stop the run but they are only slightly better than State against the pass (105th).

And in a season with opt outs, State actually gets a player back. Speedy Nailor is back from injury. The combination of Nailor and Jayden Reed will be more than Pitt can handle. One thing State knows is the weakness in Narduzzi’s pass defense, wheel routes and out patterns then set up a deep shot when Pitt starts to press.
​
You know I’m taking State and laying  the points. At least there’s good reasons this time. No quatloos though. ​

Wisconsin -7.0 vs Arizona State – It’s the Johnny E Bowl. He still grumbling about the wildly incompetent refs the end of their game in 2013 ​

It’s Wisconsin. You know what you are going to get. Pound the rock behind gigantic, King Kong sized linemen and play fantastic defense. It’s been that way since Barry to now Chryst. Rinse repeat.

This years version of Badger Ball ran the ball well again finishing with 215 YPG (16th). Fr RB sensation Braelon Allen finished the year 1,109 yards with 12 touchdowns. Allen's workload began to pick up midway through the campaign, as he eclipsed 100 yards in seven of the final eight games.

The defense was fantastic. It was the best in the nation against the run, fifth against the pass and 1st overall. 

Arizona State was up and down this year. They started out 5-1 with QB Jayden Daniels getting some very dark horse Heisman buzz. But back to back losses to Utah and Washington State derailed those whispers and the season started to go off the rails. r, Arizona State rebounded, earning victories in three of their last four games, scoring better than 30 points in each of those victories, including an impressive win over USC, to finish 8-4.
​
The only way that ASU will win this game is to stop the run and get QB Graham Mertz to pass. He’s considered a game manager but if the game is put in his hands to win he’s awful . Not sure if ASU can do that. Their run defense is respectable (32nd) and finished 18th in overall defense. But the closest team to Wisconsin they faced was Utah who clobbered ASU 35-21. I’m expecting a similar score here. ​
​

Maryland 3.5 vs Va Tech – It’s a day full of good games. Just not this one. .
 
Maryland started out 4-0 but cratered as the schedule toughened, finally beating Rutgers over Thanksgiving to become bowl eligible. Virginia Tech finished 6-6, which led to the departure of Justin Fuente as head coach.
 
Not only is Va Tech changing coaching staffs but 7 players opted out or are transferring including five starters.  

On offense, leading pass-catcher Tayvion Robinson is transferring to Kentucky, leading receiver by yardage Tre Turner is skipping the game to prepare for the NFL Draft, and starting QB Braxton Burmeister entered his name into the transfer portal. Oh, and backup QB Knox Kadum entered the transfer portal too, which means 3rd stringer Connor Blumrick will be starting

Clemson -2.5 vs Iowa State – And now the good teams start playing.

If I were to tell Clemson and Iowa State before the season that they’d be playing each other in a bowl game in Florida, you would have assumed it would’ve been the Orange Bowl in a CFP semifinal. But those dreams died early for both teams.  Clemson and Iowa State came into the season ranked in the top 10, but by the end of September, they each had two losses and were out of the playoff chase.

Instead of the CFP, they will battle it out in Orlando in the illustrious Cheez-it Bowl.

The ISU passing game, behind QB Brock Purdy was superb, finishing first in the Big 12. The Cyclone attack was complimented by star RB Breece Hall’s 1,464 yards and 20 TDs. Too bad he went down the NFL opt out path. 

​Clemson’s offense was a huge disappointment and the main reason they missed the CFP this year. For the season, Clemson is 103rd in the nation in passing offense and 57th in rushing offense and 80th in the FBS in scoring offense. Pitiful

Oregon +5.0 vs Oklahoma -  While Iowa State and Clemson was a potential CFP matchup in early September, this game was a potential CFP matchup as late as mid-November. A few key losses later kept that from happening, this game should still to be one of the better bowl matchups between two top ten caliber teams. If you can recognize what's left on either team

​In one of the strangest turns ever in the annual Coaching Carousel, both teams lost their head coaches to other Power five teams. Oregon’s Mario Critobal left for Miami (FL) while Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley bolted for Southern Cal. Oklahoma bought back the man, the legend, Bob Stoops to coach in the game while Oregon will be led by WR coach Bryan McClendon

The Ducks are not only losing their head coach, but their OC is leaving for a different gig too. Joe Moorhead, will stay behind to call plays one last time before taking over as Akron's HC.
​
The Duck offense is extremely young and playing in their first bowl environment for the most part, including three freshman receivers, a freshman tight end, and a freshman running back all seeing action on the field as either starters or regular rotation members. Don’t be surprised to see backup five-star QB Ty Thompson to join the fun too. 

Oklahoma's defense is much more of a question mark. DC Alex Grinch will follow Riley to USC and their leading tackler (LB Brian Asamoah), and top three sack masters (Isaiah Thomas/Nik Bonitto/Perrion Winfrey) are sitting this one out.

Oklahoma led the Big 12 in total offense but benched QB Spencer Rattler as he regressed as the season went on. His replacement, Replacement Fr. QB Caleb Williams was brilliant at times but also showed his inexperience too. Williams passed for under 200 yards in two of his final three regular season games while throwing almost as many interceptions (three) as touchdowns (four) during that span. Expect Stoops to keep the game plan simple with an emphasis on the run. He saw the tape of Utah blasting away at Oregon in back to back wins.

Defensively, Oregon will be missing the possible #1 pick in the draft in Kayvon Thibodeaux after he turned his attention to the draft about as soon as he walked off the field in Las Vegas during the Pac-12 Championship Game

I’ll take Oregon and the points in a game with so many missing pieces. No quatloos though. 

Mississippi State -9.5 vs Texas Tech – All the talk before the game will be about Mike Leach going against his old team. Then the game will kick off and you will get to see an exciting game filled with two high powered passing attacks.
 
Texas Tech wants to keep defenses on their heels, while Mississippi State want to keep the clock ticking. The Bulldogs are one dimensional ranking third in passing but dead last in rushing. For Texas Tech It’s not as efficient as the Mississippi State passing game, it loves to take deep shots, and there’s enough of a running game to at least not as one-dimensional as Mississippi State.

It’s the defenses that will make the difference. Unlike past teams, Mike Leach has a defense this year, allowing just 25.2 points and 331.3 yards (21st-best nationally) per game. Conversely. Texas Tech has the worst pass defense in the porous Big 12.

And the Pirate will sure to be motivated in this one. He has a $2.5 million lawsuit over his firing as the Red Raiders coach back in 2009 that is still pending in the courts. Or as he said “You know they still owe me for 2009, the last time they won nine games." You can always count on Mike for some great quotes.

I’ll take the other MSU and drop the points for a quatloo.

NC State -2.0 vs UCLA – Finally, a game with no opt outs, sick outs or coaching changes. Just some good old fashioned straight up handicapping.

UCLA has the best downfield passing game in the Pac-12. The running game averages 215 yards per game with a good blend of power and speed. ​RB Zach Charbonnet had a fantastic campaign rushing for 1,137 yards and 13 touchdowns on 202 carries Put it together and they were finished 30th in YPG.. They finished on a high note scoring. at least 42 points in all three of their wins to close the season.

The Wolfpack have a terrific passing attack, the defense was third in the ACC overall and second in points allowed – giving up fewer than 20 per game – and they have a style that should be able to control the tempo throughout.

.The game will showcase two of the most overlooked quarterbacks to play this year.  NC State’s Devin Leary might not have been celebrated in the ACC like Kenny Pickett or Sam Howell or Sam Hartman, but he threw for 3,433 yards, 35 touchdown passes and just five interceptions this season. He ended on a hot streak throwing for four or more TDs in four of his last five games. 

UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson was a true dual threat quarterback.. He closed out the regular season with 2,409 passing yards with 21 TDs against just six interceptions while tacking on an additional 611 yards and nine rushing touchdowns.

The Bruin defense played bend but don’t break. They ranked 111th in yards allowed but gave up only 15 TDs on the year while grabbing 12 picks.

​The Wolfpack’s defense was stronger giving up less than 20 PPG 16th overall.
​
NC State has been dead to me but with some leftover Christmas spirit I’ll give them one more chance.

​I’ll lay a quatloo on the Pack to cover the short spread. ​

Minnesota -5.0 vs West Virginia – The Gopher game plan is going to be very simple. Keep punching away on the ground. The more of a grind this gets, the better it is for the Gophers. They want to rely on their massive offensive line to take over in the fourth quarter for long, tough drives.

The running game will need to take over because to call QB Tanner Morgan average is being generous. Despite a front five that allowed only 20 sacks, the Sr QB recorded less than 200 passing yards in six consecutive games and has a total of 1,935 passing yards with a sad 10:8 TD to INT ratio.

Mountaineers’ QB Jarret Doege was able to put up much better numbers. He posted 2,908 passing yards to go with a 19:11 TD to INT ratio on the year.

​But the offense was centered on RB Leddie Brown. The Sr RB eclipsed the 100-yard mark four times in conference play accumulated 1,065 rushing yards accounting for 70% of the WVU rushing offense. In yet another accelerating trend, Brown opted out.

Nevada +7.0  vs Western Michigan - This as shaping up to be a great game until Nevada’s star QB Carson Strong opted to sit this out, they lost their HC Jay Norvell to Colorado State, their OC followed him and then their DC decided to go to Washington State.

Without Strong, the passing game will be a mystery but the Mountain West’s best pass rush will be disruptive, and the No. 1 team in the nation in turnover margin will need to force several mistakes in what will amount to a road game.

Western has been a big mystery all year long. The passing game was the MAC’s most efficient, it was great at controlling the clock and the tempo, and the defense was the best in the league allowing just 337 yards per game. It beat ACC Champ Pitt and MAC champ Northern Illinois yet finished 4-4 in the MAC.
​
I have no idea what to expect from either team. I’ll take Nevada and the points but no quatloos. 

Houston +2.5 vs Auburn – Houston made huge strides under 2nd year HC Dana Holgersen. After losing to Texas Tech to start the season, the Cougars reeled off 11 straight wins before losing to Cinicnnati in the AAC championship game. Houston was dynamic on both sides of the ball, averaging 37 PPG (15ht overall) and allowing 21 PPG (25th)
 
Auburn (6-6) has had a roller-coaster in HC Bryan Harsin’s first year. They opened the season with a 6-2 record, with its two losses caming against then-No. 10 Penn State and then-No. 2 Georgia. The Tigers were in a position to make a run at the SEC West crown after beating a pair of top 20 teams in Arkansas and Ole Miss. But the Tigers stumbled at the finish with losses to  Texas A&M and Mississippi State in consecutive weeks.

Then they lost starting quarterback Bo Nix to a season-ending injury and closed the regular season with losses to South Carolina and Alabama. However, they were able to push the Crimson Tide in a great Iron Bowl giving them some momentum heading into bowl season.
​
I’m going to take the more motivated Houston to win this game outright over an Auburn team struggling on offense under backup QB TJ Finley. 

sAir Force +1.5 vs Louisville – It’s a service academy, you know what to expect – the triple option and plenty of running. The Falcons did it better than anyone in the country, averaging 342 yards per game on the ground, 61 yards more than the next closest team.

t will face a Louisville defense that struggled against the run. The Cardinals allowed 4.5 rushing yards per attempt, 92nd overall.

Meanwhile, with the offense on the field so much, the Air Force defense gave up the fewest yards and second-fewest points per game in the Mountain West this season

The Cardinal offense relies on QB Malik Cunningham, considered one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country this season. For the season, he passed for 2,734 yards with 18 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He also rushed for 968 yards with 19 rushing touchdowns for the year.

I’ll take the Falcon punishing ground game to keep Cunningham off the field and pound away at the suspect Louisville defense. Make it a quatloo on the money line. 

​​Memphis -10.0 @ Hawaii - In years past, a Christmas Eve matchup between the Memphis Tigers and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors would have been must-see TV with plenty of points expected. That is far from the case this season.

Hawaii left its backfield on the mainland. RB Dae Dae Hunter led the team with 651 rushing yards and three scores, decided to be a Liberty Flame. Hawaii doesn’t have its backfield. QB Chevan Cordeiro was the main man for the offense opted to be a San Jose State Spartan. Backup QB Fr Brayden Schager got some playing time earlier in the year when Cordeiro was out with a shoulder injury, but the results were not great, throwing just two touchdowns with six interceptions.

Memphis’ big play passing attack was able to crank up close to 300 yards per game, and it’s going to press from the start against a Hawaii defense that allowed almost 290 per outing. Hawaii isn’t scaring anyone with their pass rush, so there should be plenty of time for QB Seth Henigan to stand in the pocket and let a few rip downfield. He will be facing one of the worst pass defenses in America. How bad? There are only three teams in the country with a worse pass defense than Hawaii. 

It will take a Christmas miracle for Hawaii to win this game. Spartan fans are very familiar with Rainbow miracles in Oahu. Still, I’ll take Memphis to win but no quatloos. The spread is a bit high for me.
​

Georgia State -5.5 vs Ball State – This game features tow similar teams going in opposite directions.

Ball State, has a good offensive line, a defense that takes the ball away, and it doesn’t beat itself with a whole lot of big mistakes. But the Cardinals struggled late in the season with three losses in the last five games. 

Georgia State, like Ball State has a good offensive line, is great at forcing turnovers, and it doesn’t beat itself with a whole lot of big mistakes. The Panthers however ripped through the second half of the year with six wins in the last seven games.

It’s not entirely equal. Georgia State is much better at running the ball – it’s eighth in the nation averaging 225 yards per game – and Ball State’s defense isn’t a rock against the run, ending up  92nd overall in rush yards allowed per game.
​
I’ll go again with the trend. Georgia State has been a reliable team to back, covering the spread in six out of their last seven games. Ball State has only covered four games all year.
Put me down for a quatloo on the Panthers. ​

Army -6.5 vs Missouri - Army has been good at shutting teams down. Yeah, Western Kentucky and Wake Forest, put up big numbers but those are explosive aerial offenses. That's not Missouri. The Tigers are much more effective moving the ball on the ground. 

Army has been stout against the run, holding opposing teams to 112 YPG even playing against Air Force and Navy. And now the Tigers best RB, Tyler Badie is sitting this one out.

As you expect for a service academy, Army is all about the run. And that is the Mizzou defense’s weak spot. They gave up 229 YPG on the ground, dead last in the SEC. 

​Army should be able to run all over the Tigers’ defense and pick up the win. But the spread is a bit too large for me, it moved from 3.5 to open to 6.5 now,  so I’ll take Army and the money line and parlay it with the under 54.0

North Texas  vs Miami (OH) over 55.0 – It’s the “Look what I found in the seat cushions bowl” When the season ended, there were more teams qualified for a bowl than there were bowls, so the came up with the Frisco Football Classic. Not to be confused with last night’s Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl Bruce loves the names of these bowls – he has a few NSFW potential sponsors.

Both games are being played in Frisco TX, the beer vendors are getting a workout.

And how can this be a classic? They just made it up a couple weeks ago. It’s so new it’s not included in our Confidence Pool. Not that I have much confidence in this game.
​
North Texas likes to run the ball. The Redskins struggle against the run. Miami (OH) likes to pass the ball. The Mean Green struggles against the pass.
​
I have no idea which of these two 6-6- meh teams will win so I’ll go with the over 55.0

Central Florida +7.0 vs Florida – Now here’s a much more fun game. UCF loves to get their shots at the SEC. In 2017, they ended up a perfect season 13-0 season by beating Auburn, ironically against their current HC Gus Malzahn.

Similar to that game, this one will come down to whether the Gators are focused or just trying to get a disappointing season out of the way. Will they be the team that had Bama on the ropes in week 3 or the team that mailed it in throughout the rest of the year, getting HC Dan Mullen fired? Their best WR Jacob Copeland opting for the transfer portal might be a clue. 
​
Despite bringing in Malzahn, UCF is not the high powered attack from years past. Losing starting QB Dillon Gabriel (also in week 3) put a damper on the passing game. The defense stepped up though, behind Auburn transfer (I wonder how that happened?) DL Big Kat Bryant. Over the last 6 games they didn’t let up more than 17 points.

I’m going with the more motivated team to cover. I'm not about to bet on a team that let up 52 points to Samford. 

The confidence Pool is off to a rough start. I forgot one of my favorite strategies – put tiny points on huge underdogs. That way of if an upset happens you get a massive boost. If it doesn’t you are only out a few points.
​
Already, there has been 3 favorites of a TD or better that have gone down. I guess I’ll have to win back the entry fee the old fashioned way – at the ticket window.

Kent State +3.5 vs Wyoming – It’s a matchup featuring two teams headed in opposite directions. Wyoming got off to a 4-0 start before losing six of their final eight games. Kent State started out 1-3 start before winning six of its final eight games, earning the Flashers an appearance in the MAC Championship game.

The Flash Fast Attack is a blast to watch. It’s not an Air Raid. It’s mainly a ground game but it’s go, go, go, high tempo, keep teams on their heels type of attack. The strategy has worked as Kent State offense finished the season 8th overall and despite playing Iowa and Texas A&M still averaged 32.6 PPG.

Wyoming will try to do what Northern Illinois did in the MAC championship game, keep to the run game and control the clock. The have the capability -  rumbling for over 400 yards in three of their last five games.

I’ll  go with the trends here. Kent State is 4-2 ATS while Wyoming is 3-6 ATS. And with the Flashers suspect defense I’ll put a quatloo on a same game parlay of Kent State money line and the over 59 at +345.

​San Diego State vs UTSA under 49.5 – Man, I hate this matchup. It’s two of my favorite teams this year and the two best group of Five teams not named Cincinnati. Too bad they have to play each other. Going to make for a great game though!

UTSA was one of the biggest surprises of the season. The offense was balanced and prolific. They averaged 37.8 PPG. The offense took a hit however when Joe's long lost great nephew, Sincere McCormick and his 1,479 yards opted for the NFL.
​
San Diego State is also missing several player due to injury. Not that they were all that great. The Aztec’s offense was one of the worst in the country last year (111th).
​
The defense was amazing, however, ranking 17th in points allowed and 14th overall. Also had the best punter in the game too in Matt Araiza. The Ray Guy winner is awesome.
 

With a weapon like that how can you not take the Spaztecs. They play close games - their last five wins have been one score games. But they just find a way to win. 

I'll take SDSU to win but no quatloos. I don't want to root against the Roadrunners. I will put a quatloo on the under 49.0 though. Both offenses are now suspect. 

There’s Rivalry Week and Championship week but now comes the best part of the season – Bowl Season! A chance, actually 44 chances including the National Championship game, to see college football games spread out so you can see them all. And a chance to see matchups that the powerhouse programs would never schedule. How about Georgia vs scUM - could you hate two teams more? Or how Oregon vs Oklahoma, two CFP regulars facing off outside the playoffs.

And there are plenty of games facing Power 5 versus excellent Group of 5 teams like Auburn vs Houston, Oregon State vs Utah State and what should be an annual game, Florida vs Central Florida.  That doesn’t include the playoff game of Cincinnati vs Bama, headed by two coaches that spurned MSU at one time or another.

It’s  44 more investment opportunities and 44 chances to hide from everyday life, grab some adult beverages and watch some entertaining football
Of course, it also a chance at one of my favorite investment opportunities – confidence pools. Not only do you have to pick the winners, you have to grade your  teams on a curve. 44 points for the slam dunk, absolutely, as sure as OSU will beat scUM again (oops) all the way down to 1 point on what the heck upsets can happen.

That’s a lot of games to sort through and evaluate. But fear not, the Doofus is here to help.
​
First lets start by listing all the teams, dates, times and networks so you can get your football viewing schedule prepared. 

Now there are several ways to rank the teams including it's record, record against the spread, Sagarin rating and FPI rating

There's some other factors to consider too. The Coaching Carousel has been going nuts with many teams going into bowl season with new head coaches on the horizon. Also some teams get to play in their home state giving a semblance of home field advantage. 

And, of course, the all important spread

​All right, there's lots of data points. How do you pick you winners and how many points to put on them,  If we were to rank the teams strictly based on the ratings or the spread we get

But screw going with al favorites. There's no fun in that. One thing I like to do is pick several upsets. They happen every year and some are quite large. I also like to allocate more of my points to the back end of Bowl Season that way your are still in the competition even if you make some mistakes early. So after a season of watching way too much football - here is what I am going to enter in the pool. Wish me luck!

And here is the spreadsheet for you to use in making your own picks​ - Good Luck!