Lions Win! Let the celebration go on all night The horror of the 2023 college football season is over. Though the nightmares will continue. From Mel choking the chicken to Michigan raising the asterisk the season couldn’t have gone worse. I’m moving on. On to the NFL where things are going much better.
We saw it coming late last year, the Lions were going to be a force! Last Sunday, the Lions won a playoff game for only the second time in my life, and for the first time ever for the Big Guy. The entire family was together with the Mother of all Doofusses to watch the game. The celebration continued into the wee hours of the morning.
And now we enter the Divisional Round. The pretenders, Cowboys and eagles are gone. Eight legit teams are left.
Here’s my picks:
Houston +9.5 @ Baltimore – Carolina would like a do over in the draft. The passed on CJ Stroud and took Bryce Young. Stroud torched the Brown so bad last week that the brought in Davis Mills in the middle of the fourth quarter. He may be a rookie but he plays like a veteran, taking what the defense gives him. If the play isn’t there, he doesn’t force the issue but lives for another day.
We saw it coming late last year, the Lions were going to be a force! Last Sunday, the Lions won a playoff game for only the second time in my life, and for the first time ever for the Big Guy. The entire family was together with the Mother of all Doofusses to watch the game. The celebration continued into the wee hours of the morning.
And now we enter the Divisional Round. The pretenders, Cowboys and eagles are gone. Eight legit teams are left.
Here’s my picks:
Houston +9.5 @ Baltimore – Carolina would like a do over in the draft. The passed on CJ Stroud and took Bryce Young. Stroud torched the Brown so bad last week that the brought in Davis Mills in the middle of the fourth quarter. He may be a rookie but he plays like a veteran, taking what the defense gives him. If the play isn’t there, he doesn’t force the issue but lives for another day.
CJ Stroud plays like a savvy veteran And now he has the same number of postseason victories as Ravens star QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson wrapped up the NFL POY after his win over the Niners in week 16 but he struggles in this spot. On 12 or more days of rest, he’s 1-6 ATS. Over the past three seasons, he's 6-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more points and 1-8 ATS when laying 7.5 or more.
He will have success throwing to WR Zay Flowers against a week Texans secondary. And he will get more touches in that Pro Bowler Mark Andrews has been ruled out.
Baltimore will struggle to establish the ground game as the Texans are stout against the run. Though Lamar is a special talent leading all QBs in rushing with 821 yards.
The spread is way too high and the public agrees with 60% of the tickets taking the Texans. Normally you should fade the public but they get it right here. In the last 20 years in the playoffs, only four teams that were underdogs of a touchdown or more closed with 60%+ of tickets.
He will have success throwing to WR Zay Flowers against a week Texans secondary. And he will get more touches in that Pro Bowler Mark Andrews has been ruled out.
Baltimore will struggle to establish the ground game as the Texans are stout against the run. Though Lamar is a special talent leading all QBs in rushing with 821 yards.
The spread is way too high and the public agrees with 60% of the tickets taking the Texans. Normally you should fade the public but they get it right here. In the last 20 years in the playoffs, only four teams that were underdogs of a touchdown or more closed with 60%+ of tickets.
- 2014 Saints (+10) at Seahawks (23-15 loss)
- 2008 Giants (+12.5) vs. Patriots (17-14 win)
- 2008 Giants (+7) at Cowboys (21-17 win)
- 2008 Seahawks (+9) at Packers (42-20 loss)
Aaron Jones ran for 118 yards against Dallas. He won't have the same success against the Niners. I’ll take Houston and the points for a quatloos. I’ll also put a quatloos on Zay Flowers over 50.5 yards.
San Francisco -10.0 vs Green Bay – Lions fans are begging for Love to fail. It would be totally unfair of Love becomes the 3rd straight HOF QB in Green bay. Farve and Rodgers tortured the Lions for years. If the football gods have any mercy the will let Love fail.
Love certainly looked like he would follow in their footsteps in dismantling the Cowboys last week. But that may have been more due to Cowboy futility than anything else. I doubt Love will have the same success against the Niners.
RB Aaron Jones will not be able to run against San Francisco’s elite run defense. The Niners defense will be even better with the likely return of Arik Armstead and Dre Greenlaw. With Armstead, the 49ers will finally have their full complement of defensive linemen leading to a substantial increase in pressure rate across the board.
But San Francisco's secondary is relatively weaker. Christian Watson will be healthier than he was in his return versus Dallas, so his game-breaking speed should give the Packers a new element they haven’t had since he suffered a hammy in week 13.
Brandon Aiyuk should have a great game though On the other side of the ball, Green Bay defense didn't grade out well even against a very easy schedule of opposing offenses — it even got to face the Rams with Brett Rypien at quarterback, the Vikings with Jaren Hall and Giants with Tommy DeVito — and grade out as a very poor tackling team.
The Packers have struggled to defend the middle of the field, against running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the slot. Brock Purdy has absolutely shredded Cover 3 defenses, which he'll likely see plenty of on Saturday. TE Georgie Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk can expect to have a a good day.
The Packers special teams are anything but special , one of the worst in the NFL.
Put it all together and I’ll take San Francisco and lay the points. I’ll also go with Brandon Aiyuk over over 69.5 yards receiving and Aaron Jones under 66.5 yards rushing
The Packers have struggled to defend the middle of the field, against running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the slot. Brock Purdy has absolutely shredded Cover 3 defenses, which he'll likely see plenty of on Saturday. TE Georgie Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk can expect to have a a good day.
The Packers special teams are anything but special , one of the worst in the NFL.
Put it all together and I’ll take San Francisco and lay the points. I’ll also go with Brandon Aiyuk over over 69.5 yards receiving and Aaron Jones under 66.5 yards rushing
