The Ravens get another weapon back in their arsenal with the return of TE Mark Andrews Baltimore -4.0 vs Kansas City - Lamar is going to have a bit of trouble getting the ball to his WRs. No team hamstrings WRs like the Chiefs. In the regular season, they allowed the fewest yards to WRs. Like last weekend against Buffalo, Tony Romo was correctly begging the Josh Allen to target Dalton Kincaid last weekend. Allen ended up targeting his RBs and TEs on 43 percent of his pass attempts who nabbed 60% of the yards. You can expect Lamar to do the same.
The good news is that Ravens star TE Mark Andrews is likely to play Sunday after missing the playoffs with an ankle injury. Fellow TE Isaiah Likely and RB Justice Hill will also benefit.
The Chiefs couldn’t defend Allen as a runner on designed runs or as a scrambler at all last week. Allen had 12 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns. Lamar is better. And the Chiefs are a bit depleted as starters DL Derrick Nnadi, LB Willie Gay, and S Mike Edwards are unlikely to play.
This is not your Kansas City team of years past. They are no longer a prolific pass first pass, pass often team. Rather they are a defensive team that is trying to be balanced offensively.
The good news is that Ravens star TE Mark Andrews is likely to play Sunday after missing the playoffs with an ankle injury. Fellow TE Isaiah Likely and RB Justice Hill will also benefit.
The Chiefs couldn’t defend Allen as a runner on designed runs or as a scrambler at all last week. Allen had 12 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns. Lamar is better. And the Chiefs are a bit depleted as starters DL Derrick Nnadi, LB Willie Gay, and S Mike Edwards are unlikely to play.
This is not your Kansas City team of years past. They are no longer a prolific pass first pass, pass often team. Rather they are a defensive team that is trying to be balanced offensively.
The Chiefs will need to put extra bodies on Jadeveon Clowney They have struggled in running the ball efficiently both in the regular season and the playoffs. They have relied on explosive runs and creating explosive passing plays from their multiple-tight-end sets. Interestingly enough, despite the Ravens having a stellar defense, they had the third-worst rate of allowing explosive runs in the regular season. Look for the Chiefs to try and get a few explosive running plays early to set up the pass.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they lost one of their best interior OL in LG Joe Thuney. The Ravens should be able to bottle up the interior run game and Edge DE Jadeveon Clowney has been dominant against TEs trying to run block him, so the Chiefs will need to get extra bodies on him.
The Ravens don’t blitz as much as some think. In fact, in the regular season, they ranked 26th in blitz yet, they led the league in sacks (60).
With the DL able to get pressure on QBs, it allowed the Ravens play a ton of zone (2nd highest rate in the league). Using a zone defense will allow the Ravens to keep their eyes on Mahomes, limiting his scrambling ability. The Ravens were able to contain Houston’s CJ Stroud which had a pretty good OL. They should be able to do the same against the Chiefs OL missing a key player.
Kansas City will counter the zone defense with WRs using crossing routes and screen plays. Chiefs' WR Rasheen Rice should have a good day.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they lost one of their best interior OL in LG Joe Thuney. The Ravens should be able to bottle up the interior run game and Edge DE Jadeveon Clowney has been dominant against TEs trying to run block him, so the Chiefs will need to get extra bodies on him.
The Ravens don’t blitz as much as some think. In fact, in the regular season, they ranked 26th in blitz yet, they led the league in sacks (60).
With the DL able to get pressure on QBs, it allowed the Ravens play a ton of zone (2nd highest rate in the league). Using a zone defense will allow the Ravens to keep their eyes on Mahomes, limiting his scrambling ability. The Ravens were able to contain Houston’s CJ Stroud which had a pretty good OL. They should be able to do the same against the Chiefs OL missing a key player.
Kansas City will counter the zone defense with WRs using crossing routes and screen plays. Chiefs' WR Rasheen Rice should have a good day.
Patrick Mahomes as an underdog? bring it on he says Scoring in the Red zone has been a sore spot for the Chiefs during the playoff run. Kansas City is just 4-for-10 inside its opponents 20-yard line the past two games, converting for touchdowns on just over 52% of RZ possessions. They face a Ravens RZ defense that allows TDs on only 40.82% of attempt, the second fewest in the league.
Overall, Kansas City barely hung on to win versus a depleted Bills defense. Baltimore is at full strength on defense and getting healthier on offense.
I’m going with the Ravens to cover and a Ravens RB Justice Hill to have over a combined rushing and receiving yards of 49.5
Investing side notes:
There is something about playing the Bills that takes it out of you. Teams the week after facing the Bills are 24-41-1 ATS (36.9%) over the past four seasons, including 5-11-1 ATS this season. Over the last three seasons, teams are 3-14 ATS (18%) the game after beating the Bills, failing to cover the spread by 6.2 PPG
On the other side, watch out when Mahomes is an underdog. He is 8-3 straight up in his career as a dog, the best record of any QB in the Super Bowl era with a minimum of 10 starts. It's just the sixth time Mahomes has opened at +3 or higher. he is 5-0 ATS so far in those games.
Overall, Kansas City barely hung on to win versus a depleted Bills defense. Baltimore is at full strength on defense and getting healthier on offense.
I’m going with the Ravens to cover and a Ravens RB Justice Hill to have over a combined rushing and receiving yards of 49.5
Investing side notes:
There is something about playing the Bills that takes it out of you. Teams the week after facing the Bills are 24-41-1 ATS (36.9%) over the past four seasons, including 5-11-1 ATS this season. Over the last three seasons, teams are 3-14 ATS (18%) the game after beating the Bills, failing to cover the spread by 6.2 PPG
On the other side, watch out when Mahomes is an underdog. He is 8-3 straight up in his career as a dog, the best record of any QB in the Super Bowl era with a minimum of 10 starts. It's just the sixth time Mahomes has opened at +3 or higher. he is 5-0 ATS so far in those games.
The Lions stormed back from a 20 point deficit against the Niners back in 1957 to win their last road playoff game Detroit +7.0 @ San Francisco – It’s the first pick on the 2016 draft against the last pick in the 2022 draft. But that’s not the only interesting historical tidbit about this game. It’s also a rematch of the last time the Lions won a road game in the playoffs.
Detroit last won an NFL championship way back in 1957. It reached that game by mounting a 20-point second-half playoff comeback at the old Kezar Stadium in San Francisco. The 49ers, were leading big at halftime, and started taunting the Lions through the thin drywall and air ducts that separated Kezar’s walls.
The Niners continued chirping as the teams walked together down the long, dark tunnel that connected the locker rooms to the field. The 49ers ended up regretting their premature exuberance when the Lions rallied for the 31-27 victory.
Detroit last won an NFL championship way back in 1957. It reached that game by mounting a 20-point second-half playoff comeback at the old Kezar Stadium in San Francisco. The 49ers, were leading big at halftime, and started taunting the Lions through the thin drywall and air ducts that separated Kezar’s walls.
The Niners continued chirping as the teams walked together down the long, dark tunnel that connected the locker rooms to the field. The 49ers ended up regretting their premature exuberance when the Lions rallied for the 31-27 victory.
Deebo Samuel has been cleared to play putting additional pressure on a terribile Lions seondary The Lions received some bad news, Deebo Samuel has been cleared to play for the Niners. He is salivating at a chance to play against the worst pair of starting outside corners in the league, Cameron Sutton and Kindle Vildor. Vildor gave up a league-worst 21.2 yards per reception and Sutton has given up more receiving yards than any player this season (888).
Purdy should have a great day, right? Maybe not. The Lions have an excellent pass rush and the Niners pass blocking is the 7th worst in the league. It’s the reason why Purdy struggled against Baltimore on Christmas Day, tossing 4 picks in a 33-19 blow out loss.
San Francisco will likely try to establish the run with Christian McCaffery. But the Lions the Lions have a strong run defense. Since their bye in Week 9, they rank fifth in defensive rush success and have the fourth-most tackles for losses and run stuffs (runs gaining zero yards) combined.
However, they make plays at and behind the line of scrimmage because their linebackers are extremely aggressive, which leaves them susceptible to play action. The Lions have the fifth-worst defensive success rate against play action in the league. The 49ers offense that leads the league in success rate when using play action. Expect Brandon Aiyuk and TE Greg Kittle to have success on play action. Aiyuk leads the 49ers in yards on play-action plays, and Kittle is by far Purdy’s favorite target when blitzed.
Purdy should have a great day, right? Maybe not. The Lions have an excellent pass rush and the Niners pass blocking is the 7th worst in the league. It’s the reason why Purdy struggled against Baltimore on Christmas Day, tossing 4 picks in a 33-19 blow out loss.
San Francisco will likely try to establish the run with Christian McCaffery. But the Lions the Lions have a strong run defense. Since their bye in Week 9, they rank fifth in defensive rush success and have the fourth-most tackles for losses and run stuffs (runs gaining zero yards) combined.
However, they make plays at and behind the line of scrimmage because their linebackers are extremely aggressive, which leaves them susceptible to play action. The Lions have the fifth-worst defensive success rate against play action in the league. The 49ers offense that leads the league in success rate when using play action. Expect Brandon Aiyuk and TE Greg Kittle to have success on play action. Aiyuk leads the 49ers in yards on play-action plays, and Kittle is by far Purdy’s favorite target when blitzed.
The Lions ran this trap play against the Rams to perfection, resulting in an easy TD For the Lions, no team has a more robust and diverse run game than the Lions. They do a little bit of everything, and they do it well. Where teams have had success against the 49ers is coming in with highly tailored game plans to take advantage of their ultra-aggressive single-gap defense. We saw that last week when the Packers kept running crack toss plays at them. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will undoubtedly come into the game with many different variations of that play.
Another run concept that works well against the 49ers defense is the trap play. The Lions are the best trap team in the league. It’s an old-school play most teams will use occasionally but it’s a part of the Lions’ offensive identity.
On a trap play, the offensive line purposely leaves a defensive lineman unblocked in hopes he takes the bait and flies upfield, making him an easy target for a pulling lineman to trap him.
When the Lions pass, Jared Goff tends to target the middle of the field with crossers and option routes, but it’ll be difficult with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw inside. The Lions will no doubt go after 49ers corner Ambry Thomas, who allowed five catches for 74 yards and committed two costly penalties against the Packers.
Another run concept that works well against the 49ers defense is the trap play. The Lions are the best trap team in the league. It’s an old-school play most teams will use occasionally but it’s a part of the Lions’ offensive identity.
On a trap play, the offensive line purposely leaves a defensive lineman unblocked in hopes he takes the bait and flies upfield, making him an easy target for a pulling lineman to trap him.
When the Lions pass, Jared Goff tends to target the middle of the field with crossers and option routes, but it’ll be difficult with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw inside. The Lions will no doubt go after 49ers corner Ambry Thomas, who allowed five catches for 74 yards and committed two costly penalties against the Packers.
But I will take Purdy to have at least one completion over 40.5 yards I’m going to take the Lions to cover. The spread is too big and the Lions, outside their secondary, matches up well against San Francisco. I’m also going with brock Purdy to have a longest completion of over 40.5 yards.
Purdy has eclipsed this number in seven of his last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Lions have allowed eight of the last 10 QBs they've faced to go Over their longest completion prop.
Interesting investing tidbits:
The San Francisco 49ers were favored in all 17 regular season games and they were favorites to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs.
They are the 10th team to accomplish both in the same season since 1980 — the Niners have done it five times, and the rest of the NFL also has done it five times
Lions have been an ATS cash cow going
Purdy has eclipsed this number in seven of his last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Lions have allowed eight of the last 10 QBs they've faced to go Over their longest completion prop.
Interesting investing tidbits:
The San Francisco 49ers were favored in all 17 regular season games and they were favorites to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs.
They are the 10th team to accomplish both in the same season since 1980 — the Niners have done it five times, and the rest of the NFL also has done it five times
Lions have been an ATS cash cow going
- 13-6 ATS this season
- 25-11 ATS since the start of last season
- 36-17 ATS over the last three seasons
