Izzo was getting a little worried as Sunday rolled on Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for four teams no one else has a shot at the championship, until next season that is. One and done in bowls just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.
That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still playing!
And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still playing!
And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
Fairleigh Dickinson upset #1 seed Purdue in the first round last year This year it’s going to be a hard rule to follow. We had high expectations going into the year, ranked #4 and a couple of big wins early on. But overall, we could never seem to get everyone playing up to Izzo standards all at the same time. The defense was generally there but the offense was excruciating. After back to back seasons as 7 seeds we come in as an 9. The worst possible seed. If we win, we face a 1 seed, North Carolina, in their backyard, Charlotte. But at least Izzo streak of consecutive appearances continues though it was a bit of a nail biter on Sunday.
As much as I doubt Sparty can make it to the Final Four, the rule is the rule. I’ll just make sure I have several backup brackets, just in case.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to the Indianapolis.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. Last year, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round (more on them later). Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 150-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
As much as I doubt Sparty can make it to the Final Four, the rule is the rule. I’ll just make sure I have several backup brackets, just in case.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to the Indianapolis.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. Last year, #1 seed Purdue, also said goodbye in the first round (more on them later). Can it happen again? Maybe, but the top seeds are 150-2 (98.7%) since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
While MSU upset #2 seed Marquette in the 2nd round 4. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. In 2023 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round (State upsetting 2 seed Marquette!). Same thing happened in 2022 and 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. Looks like a trend, take a 2 seed to lose this round and another in the second round.
5. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over 3 seeds. But, in the last two years, the 3 seeds have gone 4-0 in the first round. Last year they went 3-1 in the second round, In 2022 they went 2-2 in the second round. That said, there is some history for 14 over 3 upsets. In 2016, Stephen F Austin upset West Virginia. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. It hasn’t paid off the last two years, but consider putting a 14-3 upset to add a little spice in your bracket.
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Wow! In 2021, Oregon State upset Tennessee. In 2022, the 12 seeds went 2-2 in the first game. In fact, 12 seeds win at a higher rate at better than a third of the time (35%) So have a little fun - take a 12 (or two) to beat a 5!
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (San Diego St, St Marys, Wisconsin and Gonzaga this year)
5. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over 3 seeds. But, in the last two years, the 3 seeds have gone 4-0 in the first round. Last year they went 3-1 in the second round, In 2022 they went 2-2 in the second round. That said, there is some history for 14 over 3 upsets. In 2016, Stephen F Austin upset West Virginia. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. It hasn’t paid off the last two years, but consider putting a 14-3 upset to add a little spice in your bracket.
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Wow! In 2021, Oregon State upset Tennessee. In 2022, the 12 seeds went 2-2 in the first game. In fact, 12 seeds win at a higher rate at better than a third of the time (35%) So have a little fun - take a 12 (or two) to beat a 5!
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (San Diego St, St Marys, Wisconsin and Gonzaga this year)
Lots of folks taking Samford to beat the tourney challenged Kansas 7. This is where I usually say don’t bet on Kansas. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year other than 2019 and 2021. But until 2022 when they won it all, they made it to the Final Four once (2012).
In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened in 2018. In 2019, they won one game and then got launched by a #5 seed. In 2021, they got bounced in the second round by 6 seed USC.
That said, in 2022 they won it all but reverted to form last year as they didn’t make to the Sweet 16 as a 1 seed, This year, not much is expected from Kansas as they are a 4 seed. The talking heads have caught on to Kansas and many are expecting them to get bounced by 13 seed Samford. Go ahead and bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks.
In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened in 2018. In 2019, they won one game and then got launched by a #5 seed. In 2021, they got bounced in the second round by 6 seed USC.
That said, in 2022 they won it all but reverted to form last year as they didn’t make to the Sweet 16 as a 1 seed, This year, not much is expected from Kansas as they are a 4 seed. The talking heads have caught on to Kansas and many are expecting them to get bounced by 13 seed Samford. Go ahead and bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks.
#2 seed Arizona didn't make it to the Sweet 16 last year either This year I’m adding Purdue. In 2021, they got bounced in the first round as 4 seed. In 2022 the got eliminated in the second round as 3 seed, In 2023, they got went home, losing their first game as a 1 seed. Only the second time ever a 1 seed went down on the first day. The Boilers have traditionally underachieved. Chris is betting on his alma mater to win it all. Don’t be like Chris.
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last nine Tournaments, 26 of the 80 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. Last year, of the eight top 2 seeds, four went down during the first weekend including our favorites Purdue and Kansas. In 2022 1 seed Baylor and 2 seed Auburn got dismissed. In 2021 it was 1 seed Illinois, and 2 seed Iowa failing to make the Sweet Sixteen The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. Last year it was 9 seed Florida Atlantic making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 100 Final Four teams, 78 were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one or two non top four seeds.
10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds.
On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 12.1. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 4 times over the last 23 years (2000, 2006 and 2011 and last year!).
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last nine Tournaments, 26 of the 80 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. Last year, of the eight top 2 seeds, four went down during the first weekend including our favorites Purdue and Kansas. In 2022 1 seed Baylor and 2 seed Auburn got dismissed. In 2021 it was 1 seed Illinois, and 2 seed Iowa failing to make the Sweet Sixteen The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. Last year it was 9 seed Florida Atlantic making it to the Final Four that grabbed everyone’s attention. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 100 Final Four teams, 78 were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one or two non top four seeds.
10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds.
On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 12.1. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 4 times over the last 23 years (2000, 2006 and 2011 and last year!).
The U was celebrating as no #1 seed made it to the Elite Eight last year Last year the total was 23, a result a couple of sigmas outside the norm. In fact, last year was the first time that a 1 seed didn’t even make it to the Elite Eight. Probably an anomaly, Target something in the 12-15 range with your Final Four teams.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year, two First Four teams advanced, FDU and Pitt.
13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 25 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be a little suspicious of Creighton, Duke, Tennessee and Alabama.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble teams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year, two First Four teams advanced, FDU and Pitt.
13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 25 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be a little suspicious of Creighton, Duke, Tennessee and Alabama.
The last team west of Texas to win it all? Arizona 1997 15. Along those same lines, since Arizona won it all in 1997, no team west of Texas has been crowned champs.
16. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the West – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. There’s 9 of your 13-15 points right there. Doesn’t leave a lot of room for lower seeds. The Spartans got a crappy seed though. As a 9 seed, if they win, they play a one seed. And not any old 1 seed. North Carolina is 34-2 when playing a tournament game in the Tar Heel state. Adding to the misery, Michigan State didn’t beat a single NCAA Tournament team in a game played outside the state of Michigan.
b. In the East – UConn. It’s been 17 years since there’s been back to back champions (Florda 2006-7) but this could be the year. By the way, the Huskies are the favorites to win the tourney. Since 2000, the pre-tournament favorite has won it all 9 times.
c. In the South – It’s a coin flip between Houston and Kentucky. Heads, it’s Houston.
d. In the Midwest – Kansas, Tennessee, Creighton and Purdue are out. This bracket is a hot mess. I don’t like 5 seed Gonzaga or 6 seed South Carolina either. I guess I’ll go with Edey in his final season and take Purdue. Besides, the only other 1 seed to lose in the first round, Virginia, won it all the next year.
16. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the West – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. There’s 9 of your 13-15 points right there. Doesn’t leave a lot of room for lower seeds. The Spartans got a crappy seed though. As a 9 seed, if they win, they play a one seed. And not any old 1 seed. North Carolina is 34-2 when playing a tournament game in the Tar Heel state. Adding to the misery, Michigan State didn’t beat a single NCAA Tournament team in a game played outside the state of Michigan.
b. In the East – UConn. It’s been 17 years since there’s been back to back champions (Florda 2006-7) but this could be the year. By the way, the Huskies are the favorites to win the tourney. Since 2000, the pre-tournament favorite has won it all 9 times.
c. In the South – It’s a coin flip between Houston and Kentucky. Heads, it’s Houston.
d. In the Midwest – Kansas, Tennessee, Creighton and Purdue are out. This bracket is a hot mess. I don’t like 5 seed Gonzaga or 6 seed South Carolina either. I guess I’ll go with Edey in his final season and take Purdue. Besides, the only other 1 seed to lose in the first round, Virginia, won it all the next year.
McNeese State took down our little sisters 87-76 back in December 17. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 12. Right at the metric.
18. For my First Four upset the winner of Colorado/Boise State (likely a finally healthy Buffs squad) to take down Florida.
19. For the 14 over 3 upset– I’ll go with one of my favorite mid majors, Colgate, to beat Baylor. I’ll be rooting for Oakland too over Kentucky but I just can’t quite pull the trigger and pick them, however. I’ll do it in one of my back up brackets.
20. For my 13 over 4 upset I’ll go with Samford and “Bucky Ball”, a full-court pressing, pushing the tempo, gambling for turnovers, ranking top 10 in the nation in pace, 3-point percentage and turnovers forced, over Kansas.
21. I’ll take two 12s over 5s. First, McNeese State over Gonzaga. McNeese State has 4 players who average over 40% hitting 3s. And, James Madison over Wisconsin. These teams are evenly matched. JMU has one of the best three point defenses and can pull the upset.
22. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? Michigan State over North Carolina qualifies. And I’ll take Colorado to continue rolling over Marquette possibly missing star PG Tyler Kolek.
Put it all together and here is my 2024 winning bracket
