The Last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl, I was in Maui with Mr. and Mrs. H, watching the game from an ocean side sports bar while the whales were breeching in the background. Heaven on earth.

But if you can’t watch the game from Hawaii, watching the Super Bowl in  Las Vegas has to be a close second. The worlds biggest party comes to the Worlds largest party tow, A marriage made in heaven. If this works, they should make it an annual thing rather than a rotation.

Which brings up two trivia questions

1. Which city (technically metropolitan area such as Detroit includes Pontiac) has hosted the most Super Bowls
2. Which stadium has hosted the most Super Bowls

Answer below.

In 2020, my sports investments paid off. I took KC giving 1.0, they won 31-20 and I took Mahomes as MVP at +140.

The 2024 college football season is quickly approaching. The first games kickoff August 24. It's time to do your preseason homework by reviewing the new head coaches. A lot of new ones this year (28) meaning that over 20% of the 2024 Div 1A programs will have a new general roaming the sidelines. 

Here's what the Big Book of Guesses thinks about the new leaders

Remember - the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th 2024 at the Westgate SuperBook

Baltimore -4.0 vs Kansas City - Lamar is going to have a bit of trouble getting the ball to his WRs. No team hamstrings WRs like the Chiefs. In the regular season, they allowed the fewest yards to WRs. Like last weekend against Buffalo,  Tony Romo was correctly begging the Josh Allen to target Dalton Kincaid last weekend.  Allen ended up targeting his RBs and TEs on 43 percent of his pass attempts who nabbed 60% of the yards. You can expect Lamar to do the same.

The good news is that Ravens star TE Mark Andrews is likely to play Sunday after missing the playoffs with an ankle injury. Fellow TE Isaiah Likely and RB Justice Hill will also benefit.

The Chiefs couldn’t defend Allen as a runner on designed runs or as a scrambler at all last week. Allen had 12 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns. Lamar is better. And the Chiefs are a bit depleted as starters DL Derrick Nnadi, LB Willie Gay, and S Mike Edwards are unlikely to play.

This is not your Kansas City team of years past. They are no longer a prolific pass first pass, pass often team. Rather they are a defensive team that is trying to be balanced offensively.

​They have struggled in running the ball efficiently both in the regular season and the playoffs. They have relied on explosive runs and creating explosive passing plays from their multiple-tight-end sets. Interestingly enough, despite the Ravens having a stellar defense, they had the third-worst rate of allowing explosive runs in the regular season. Look for the Chiefs to try and get a few explosive running plays early to set up the pass.

Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they lost one of their best interior OL in LG Joe Thuney. The Ravens should be able to bottle up the interior run game and Edge DE Jadeveon Clowney has been dominant against TEs trying to run block him, so the Chiefs will need to get extra bodies on him.

The Ravens don’t blitz as much as some think. In fact, in the regular season, they ranked 26th in blitz yet, they led the league in sacks (60).

With the DL able to get pressure on QBs, it allowed the Ravens play a ton of zone (2nd highest rate in the league). Using a zone defense will allow the Ravens to keep their eyes on Mahomes, limiting his scrambling ability. The Ravens were able to contain Houston’s CJ Stroud which had a pretty good OL. They should be able to do the same against the Chiefs OL missing a key player.

Kansas City will counter the zone defense with WRs using crossing routes and screen plays. Chiefs' WR Rasheen Rice should have a good day.

Detroit +7.0 @ San Francisco – It’s the first pick on the 2016 draft against the last pick in the 2022 draft. But that’s not the only interesting historical tidbit about this game. It’s also a rematch of the last time the Lions won a road game in the playoffs.

Detroit last won an NFL championship way back in 1957. It reached that game by mounting a 20-point second-half playoff comeback at the old Kezar Stadium in San Francisco. The 49ers, were leading big at halftime, and started taunting the Lions through the thin drywall and air ducts that separated Kezar’s walls.
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The Niners continued chirping as the teams walked together down the long, dark tunnel that connected the locker rooms to the field. The 49ers ended up regretting their premature exuberance when the Lions rallied for the 31-27 victory. 

The Lions received some bad news, Deebo Samuel has been cleared to play for the Niners. He is salivating at a chance to play against the worst pair of starting outside corners in the league, Cameron Sutton and Kindle Vildor. Vildor gave up a league-worst 21.2 yards per reception and Sutton has given up more  receiving yards than any player this season (888).

Purdy should have a great day, right? Maybe not. The Lions have an excellent pass rush and the Niners pass blocking is the 7th worst in the league. It’s the reason why Purdy struggled against Baltimore on Christmas Day, tossing 4 picks in a 33-19 blow out loss.

San Francisco will likely try to establish the run with Christian McCaffery. But the Lions the Lions have a strong run defense. Since their bye in Week 9, they rank fifth in defensive rush success and have the fourth-most tackles for losses and run stuffs (runs gaining zero yards) combined.

However, they make plays at and behind the line of scrimmage because their linebackers are extremely aggressive, which leaves them susceptible to play action. The Lions have the fifth-worst defensive success rate against play action in the league. The 49ers offense that leads the league in success rate when using play action. Expect Brandon Aiyuk and TE Greg Kittle to have success on play action. Aiyuk leads the 49ers in yards on play-action plays, and Kittle is by far Purdy’s favorite target when blitzed.

The horror of the 2023 college football season is over. Though the nightmares will continue. From Mel choking the chicken to Michigan raising the asterisk the season couldn’t have gone worse. I’m moving on. On to the NFL where things are going much better.

We saw it coming late last year, the Lions were going to be a force! Last Sunday, the Lions won a playoff game for only the second time in my life, and for the first time ever for the Big Guy. The entire family was together with the Mother of all Doofusses to watch the game. The celebration continued into the wee hours of the morning.

And now we enter the Divisional Round. The pretenders, Cowboys and eagles are gone. Eight legit teams are left.

Here’s my picks:

Houston +9.5 @ Baltimore – Carolina would like a do over in the draft. The passed on CJ Stroud and took Bryce Young. Stroud torched the Brown so bad last week that the brought in Davis Mills in the middle of the fourth quarter. He may be a rookie but he plays like a veteran, taking what the defense gives him. If the play isn’t there, he doesn’t force the issue but lives for another day.

​I’ll take Houston and the points for a quatloos. I’ll also put a quatloos on Zay Flowers over 50.5 yards. ​​​

San Francisco -10.0 vs Green Bay – Lions fans are begging for Love to fail. It would be totally unfair of Love becomes the 3rd straight HOF QB in Green bay. Farve and Rodgers tortured the Lions for years. If the football gods have any mercy the will let Love fail.

Love certainly looked like he would follow in their footsteps in dismantling the Cowboys last week. But that may have been more due to Cowboy futility than anything else. I doubt Love will have the same success against the Niners.

RB Aaron Jones will not be able to run against San Francisco’s elite run defense. The Niners defense will be even better with the likely return of Arik Armstead and Dre Greenlaw. With Armstead, the 49ers will finally have their full complement of defensive linemen leading to a substantial increase in pressure rate across the board.

But San Francisco's secondary is relatively weaker. Christian Watson will be healthier than he was in his return versus Dallas, so his game-breaking speed should give the Packers a new element they haven’t had since he suffered a hammy in week 13. 

​On the other side of the ball, Green Bay defense didn't grade out well even against a very easy schedule of opposing offenses — it even got to face the Rams with Brett Rypien at quarterback, the Vikings with Jaren Hall and Giants with Tommy DeVito — and grade out as a very poor tackling team.

The Packers have struggled to defend the middle of the field, against running backs, tight ends and wide receivers in the slot. Brock Purdy has absolutely shredded Cover 3 defenses, which he'll likely see plenty of on Saturday. TE Georgie Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk can expect to have a  a good day.
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The Packers special teams are anything but special , one of the worst in the NFL.

Put it all together and I’ll take San Francisco and lay the points. I’ll also go with Brandon Aiyuk over over 69.5 yards receiving and Aaron Jones under 66.5 yards rushing

The Horror! The Horror! Last weekend’s game has now brought us to the precipice that Monday January 8th, 2024, could be football’s date with infamy.

But this will not be the result of a surprise attack. This has been building across the football landscape for an entire season. Each victory bringing us closer to the abyss, the stench growing stronger, the arrogance trumpeted ever louder.
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Last weekend was one more firebreak that was breached. For a week, we girded ourselves, forced to choke down our own vomit and root for a near equally despised program led by a long ago traitor, with equal measures of arrogance, from a conference brimming with delusional grandeur. Perhaps, we thought, a team that can match overstuffed egos, ounce for ounce could bring them down. 

It was not to be. 

Our hoped for outcome, that the field itself would open up and both teams would descend into a gloriously televised contest against Cerberus itself did not arise. Rather, in a game that would not be decided in 60 minutes, the lesser evil was vanquished, done in at times by the subtlest of flaws, the inability to properly hike a football.

And now our final hopes rest with an unlikely final hero. A team that destroyed, some would say toyed with us in Week 4. Led by a quarterback who beat us then, and with a far more inept team three years ago.
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And no, hanging an asterisk on the season, nor vacating victories will  inoculate us should the unfathomable occur. It will be dismissed as a mere punctuation mark amidst their self-proclaimed glory. Little protection against an arrogance that will reach heights never seen before, taking generations to abate.  

They must be defeated on the field. ​On the ground and through the air with ever growing strength, victory must be achieved. 

​​So the question becomes – is it possible? Can the tide be turned and righteousness survive?  It will be a tall task, the enemy is strong, experienced and confident.

Confidence arising from dominating the opposition. Only two games were decided by one score, Maryland and Ohio State. Confident in their ability to run the ball down Washington’s throat. Relying on the one-two punch of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards to find running room against the Washington defense. A defense that has had issues all year against the run,

​The Huskies allowed over 135 rush yards per game at 4.4 yards per carry this year. They gave up over 110 rush yards to all but two opponents this season and bottoming out with 204 allowed to Oregon. Against Texas, they gave up 6.4 yards per rush attempt.  

Michigan’s defense has had few such issues. They ranked ninth in defensive success rate and fourth in opponent yards per play, striking fear in opposing quarterbacks. Alabama's front learned that the hard way, as UM piled up six sacks.
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Michigan will want to make this a WWI trench warfare type game. Washington will want it to be WWII, won through air power. 

Michigan has attempted to wear the mantle of us against the world as they try to put aside all the NCAA scandals but Washington is the proper owner. Doubted at every step along the way, they now own the nations longest winning streak at 21.

Michigan’s running attack is indeed strong but Texas and Oregon (twice) both put up solid rushing numbers and the Huskies won all three of those games. Washington’s defense is supposed to be its Achilles heel but always steps up when it is needed most. Overlooked amidst it’s subpar rushing stats, it did rank 25th in opponent yards per attempt and 29th in opponent QB rating, against a league brimming with next level QB talent. 
 
Michigan’s defense may be strong as well but Washington played four teams in the Top 26 in defensive success rate. Penix threw for 1,383 yards with nine touchdowns and just two picks in those games. Penix is not phased by good defensive teams. 

And as good as they looked against Bama, It might be a little harder for Michigan to generate that same type of pressure against Washington’s OL, which  won the Joe Moore Award for the nation’s best unit. giving up only 11 sacks all season. That includes not allowing a single sack against a Texas defensive line that has multiple future  NFL players on it.

​And should, nay, when Washington negates Michigan’s advantages then the game will be decided by Penix and the best aerial attack since LSU in 2019.

​Sure, Michigan Wolverines allowed the fewest touchdown passes (seven) of any team in the nation this year. However, it struggled when facing talented QBs. Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 172 yards while Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Ohio State’s Kyle McCord each got past the 240-yard mark. All three happened in the last four games, (the Big Ten championship punt fest against Iowa being the exception) with all three being tight games that could’ve gone either way.

None of those offense even approach Washington's, Michigan has yet to face a passing attack with the depth of weapons, offensive line, and quarterback ability that Washington beings to NRG stadium.
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Penix Jr. torched Texas for 430 yards and two touchdowns with the uncanny ability to hit one-on-one throws to receivers Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan, and Germie Bernard. He can do that again. 

This is the fourth time the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds for the CFB Playoff will meet in the national championship. No. 2 seeds are 3-0 in those matchups. I'll put my money on Washington making it 4-0. 

Alabama +1.5 vs Michigan – Of course I’ll take any scUM opponent. Even $aban and the Tide. My two most hated teams fouling the most beautiful of all the bowls.

Now the question is, is it a heart bet or would I make the bet if the teams were different. Yup, it’s a legit bet.

Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh last met in the 2020 Citrus Bowl, a 35-16 beat down by the Crimson Tide. Michigan has lost six straight bowl games under Harbaugh, including the last two semifinal games against Georgia and TCU. Michigan will be playing in the Rose Bowl for the 21st time, losing the previous three dating back to 2004.

Nick Saban has had a month to prepare, where he excels, going 16-6 in bowls compared to Boogerman;s 2-7 record. Alabama is no stranger to semifinal games, winning six of these matchups in a row, scUM is 0-2.  

These two teams are pretty similar. Both love to run the ball and play defense.

Michigan passing attack all but vaporized over the final month of the season, as quarterback JJ McCarthy failed to crack 150 passing yards over the final four games. Michigan's receivers should have a tough time against the elite cornerback duo of Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold. They are the best lockdown duo at corner in the country and both are projected to be first-round picks in April’s NFL Draft.

Keep an eye on is Michigan slot Roman Wilson, who has hauled in 11 touchdowns this season. Of all the pass routes faced by Alabama's elite secondary, the Crimson Tide have been most vulnerable against the slant.

I’ll take Bama and on the money line at +105 for a Mega Bet. 
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Im going to take the over 45.0 too for a quatloo. Michigan must change up the offensive playbook and find explosives early. OC Sherron Moore utilized a similar plan in what turned out to be a high-scoring Fiesta Bowl against TCU a year ago.

Milroe’s dual-threat ability will give Michigan’s defense fits, and Bama’s OC Tommy Rees will give the Wolverines some unfamiliar looks that free up Alabama’s playmakers for easy chunk plays.

While both defenses have been stout, neither is in the top 40 in terms of red zone defense. The Rose Bowl turf typically plays fast with eight of the last nine games going over the 50-point total.

They pass the ball more than they run and have the 16th-best passing Success Rate but only the 89th-best mark in passing explosiveness.

Texas will be feeling the loss of leading rusher Jonathon Brooks in this matchup. Brooks went for 1,139 yards on the ground this year and was averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry.

Washington’s weakness on the defensive side of the ball is without a doubt its run defense, where it ranks 129th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 125th in Rushing PPA Allowed. Without Brooks, it remains to be seen whether or not Texas can take advantage of this fault.

I’ll take Penix as an underdog with a better offense to cover for a quatloo. 

Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook​

The Wisconsin defense may have up decent numbers, but that was against Big Ten West which is full a lot of really bad offenses. In fact, the only offense the Badgers faced that ranked inside the top 50 was Ohio State, which put up over 400 yards against Bucky.

Heisman winner LSU QB JT Daniels won’t be playing and was the main reason LSU offense finished second overall in the country, but the drop from him to backup QB Garrett Nussmeier isn't as drastic as you would think. Nussmeier went under center in the SEC Championship last year when Daniels got hurt, and he had a great game against an incredible Georgia defense. He threw for 294 yards and 10.9 yards per attempt while registering five big-time throws.

The rest of the starters on the LSU offense are going to play in this game including star wideouts Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. And there was more to the offense than Daniels too.

The LSU offensive line was led a very good Tiger ground game. ranking first in the nation in Offensive Line Yards and third in Stuff Rate.

​RB back Logan Diggs had a fantastic season averaging 5.5 yards per carry. The Tigers should be able to run all over a very average Wisconsin rush defense.​

The problem with LSU that its defense can't stop a nosebleed. The Tigers are 121st in EPA/Play Allowed, The biggest reason LSU has struggled on defense is because of its inability to stop teams on third downs. The Tigers are allowing teams to convert 46.9% of third downs, which ranks 124th in the nation.
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Two effective offenses against porous defenses. I’ll take the over for a quatloos.

Iowa +5.5 vs Tennessee - The Tennessee offense has been led by the passing attack of Joe Milton and the ground game headlined by Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. But, all three of those players have opted out of this one, so Tennessee will turn to a freshman. backup quarterback Nico Iamaleava, a five-star freshman from California.

On the other side, the Volunteers defense will be down four starters by way of the transfer portal. They will be without a starting defensive end and three members of their secondary.

Iowa has arguably the worst offense in the nation but the defense and special teams set them up well. The Hawkeyes had the 18th best starting position. A freshman QB against an elite defense will put the Iowa offense in great starting position again.
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I’ll go with an ugly low scoring game with Iowa staying within a FG of a depleted Tennessee team for a quatloo. ​

Oregon -18.0 vs Liberty – Be careful what you wish for. Liberty was the Group of Five entrant into the New Year Six Bowl game and gets to face Oregon who was the Pac 12 championship game from the CFP.

Normally, I don’t like giving up huge points like this but it worked brilliantly with Georgia and should work here. Liberty may be 13-0 but it was against the easiest schedule in Div 1A. That’s right no one, not even scUM had an easier schedule that Liberty.

I also looked to see if Oregon was going to mail this one in with a Florida State load of players opting out. Nope, only a handful of Ducks are taking New Years Day off.

For Liberty, the Flames’ 40.8 points per game were the fifth-most in the country, as Liberty was the only team in the nation to rush for more than 300 yards per game.

The Flame have been extremely balanced, ranking third in EPA per rush and first in EPA per pass. It’s not often that you see a team ranked in the top three nationally in both facets of offense. But you will in this game as Oregon was 2nd in EPA per rush and 3rd in EPA per pass,

The problem for Liberty is they haven’t faced anything like the Duck defense. The Ducks were one of three Pac-12 teams to hold opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards per game (97.5).

The defense left much to be desired for Liberty, however. The Flames are just 83rd in Run Success Allowed, coming against a CUSA slate.

Liberty’s passing defense ranked outside the top 100 (244.8 yards per game) and will be without starting cornerback Preston Hodge.

Both teams can move the ball and score but only one has a defense and racked up great stats against quality competition. I’ll put a quatloos on the Ducks to cover. 

I'll also put a quatloo on the Ducks to score over 23.5 points in the first half. I'm wary of the full game over if Oregon gets a big lead and rests its starters. 

​Playoff Predictions coming soon!​

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After starting out the Bowl Season 0-5, I've been on a roll going 7-1. Let's see if that trend can continue with

Penn State vs Mississippi over 50.0 – Another game, another chance at an over.

Let's start with the Mississippi side of things. Mississippi has been prolific against average to good defenses but struggles against elite defenses. Penn State’s metrics says it is elite but it will be missing likely 1st round draft pick, CB Kalen King. King played all season but was dinged up in one game, Indiana. As it turned out, that was the game where Penn State gave up the most points.
 
Penn State will also be missing elite DL Chop Robinson. His absence will not only benefit the run game, but it will allow Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart extra time to throw the ball down the field. Expect the Rebels to develop some explosive plays down the field
 
On the other side of the ball, Penn State changed OCs which resulted in a pick up in tempo and more throws downfield. As typical for Lane Kiffen defense it’s not very good. It'll also be without its leading pass rusher and best run stuffer Cedric Johnson as well. Though the Reb defense has been solid against the pass, it has struggled against the run. The Rebels defense ranked 120th in broken tackles allowed which will lead to several Penn State explosive plays.  
 
Without Johnson, PSU QB Drew Allar will have plenty of time to go deep. This is a great matchup for Allar considering the Rebels play a lot of quarters coverage, which he's had the most success against.
 
Both of these offenses should find plenty of success, as it’ll most likely come down to finishing their drives with touchdowns on instead of field goals. I’ll take the over 50.0 for a quatloos. ​

Georgia -21 vs Florida State – Should Florida State be in the CFP. Perhaps, if they were at full strength. But they are far removed from full strength now. Not only did the lose QB Jordan Travis in their penultimate game but they have been absolutely crucified by opt outs and transfers.

Not only is Travis out but backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker recently entered the portal, That means that freshman Brock Glenn start after he threw for just 55 yards on 8-of-21 passing in the AAC Championship.

FSU had a really explosive offense this season. However, leading receivers Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and tight end Jaheim Bell all opted out for the NFL Draft. So, we’ll most likely see tight end Kyle Morlock and wide receiver Darion Williamson as two of the main targets.

The Noles will be missing more than half of their running back room. Trey Benson opted out, Lawrance Toafili is out with injury, and CJ Campbell and Rodney Hill entered the portal. The run game will suffer, but it’s not like it was great anyway.  

Conversely, it doesn’t look like the Bulldogs will have many opt-outs. While there are quite a few players in the portal, the only two names that stand out in terms of opt-outs are tight end Brock Bowers — a projected top-15 pick in the draft — and offensive tackle Amarius Mims, another projected first-rounder.

Up until the SEC Championship, Georgia was hands down the best team in college football. The Bulldogs may have had a few games that were close calls, but they always pulled away.

While -21 sounds like a big spread for the Orange Bowl, I think it's generous. Florida State will roll out a freshman quarterback and a number of backups against a top-five Georgia team that's mostly at full strength.
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I’ll take the Dawgs and lay the points in what should be a blowout. ​

Wyoming -4,5 vs Toledo – Forget opt outs, transfers and all the rest. The number one way to handicap Bowl games is motivation. And the biggest motivational advantage of the Bowl season is Wyoming giving it all for retiring HC Craig Bohl.

​After 10 years as the head coach for Wyoming, Craig Bohl will retire after this game. The 65-year-old has led the Cowboys to a bowl game in six of the last eight years. With a win on Saturday, the Cowboys will reach nine wins for the first time since 1996 and finish with the best season of Bohl’s career.

It might be more difficult to ignite the Rockets, who are coming off a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship, failing to defend their conference title against a backup quarterback. Over the last 20 years, the loser of the MAC Championship game has gone just 6-14 in their bowl game.

Toledo led the MAC with nine players named first-team All-MAC. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they will be with at least three of them. Quarterback Dequan Finn, and MAC offensive player of the year, running back Peny Boone  

In addition, star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell projects as a second-round pick in the NFL Draft and is likely to opt out of this game.
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I’ll take a fired up Wyoming team with a gritty defense and lay the points against a depleted Toledo for a quatloo. 

Looks lime everyone is getting into the New Years sprit. I went and got a haircut today and the in store music started playing some disco. My stylist (not that I have a style) started busting a move. She’s singing and dancing, having a grand old time.

To me, I started thinking what a great video that would be. All these stylists doing some disco choreography. To the song, Le Freak, Ahhh, hair cut! Le dreads, C’est chic, they could be dancing around with their cutters, spinning customers in their chairs, lights flashing off the disco ball.
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OK fast forward 45 years (has it been that long?), to the tune Celebrate, I’ll go with these picks today. 

​​Oregon State under 17.5 points vs Notre Dame – I try to not overreact to coaching changes, transfers and opt outs but Oregon State is truly devastated. Michigan State gutted their coaching staff and roster.

I question the psyche of a team where everyone is leaving and no conferences want their program. The Beavers will be playing in a modified Mountain West schedule next year while other Pac 12 teams will have memberships in the Big 12 and Big 10.

OSU will be down to their 3rd string QB Ben Gulbranson struggled to throw efficiently as the starter in 2022. And while Notre Dame had a lot of opt outs too, almost all were on the offense (including QB Sam Hartman).

The defense returns nearly entirely intact. It’s a veteran experienced team. Three players are opting out with two being replaced by  Sr CB Clarence Lewis and fifth-year LB Jack Kiser. The veteran trend continues.
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I’ll take the side under of Oregon State under 17.5 points for a quatloo. 

​​Memphis vs Kentucky over 59.0 – Both teams will be playing on familiar territory, This will be Iowa State’s third trip to the Liberty Bowl since 2012, while Memphis will literally be plying in their hone stadium. 

​Neither team is dealing with large numbers of opt-outs, so we'll get these teams at relatively full strength.​

​Memphis did a great job of taking care of business this season. The Tigers only lost to 9th ranked Missouri, 10-win Tulane and SMU, American Athletic Conference champs.

Memphis showcases one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the country this year, averaging 39.7 points per game. Iowa State's defense will be tougher than the average AAC defensive unit, but not a single team was able to hold Memphis below 21 points, and only three held them to less than 30.

With a record like that, you would think Memphis would be ranked. The problem is they give up points just as fast. They allowed 29 points per game and gave up at least 30 points in seven games this year, getting shredded by the likes of North Texas and South Florida This is a thoroughly unbalanced team that needs to outscore the opposition in shootouts to win.

Iowa State’s offense while not high powered, is good enough to put up points on the Tiger defense. The Cyclones are led by two freshmen, QB Rocco Becht and RB Abu Sama III . They will want to use a bowl game to continue to improve and should feel even more comfortable with a month to prepare for this game. Plus, they should be adequately supported since all key offensive players will suit up for Iowa State.

Unlike some of the games earlier this week, conditions should be fine in Memphis if just a bit chilly, about 40 degrees with a slight breeze.

​They should also be able to move the ball on the ground too. Missouri ran a heavy amount of outside zone and man run concepts. Ohio State's defensive strength came against inside zone, a concept Missouri doesn't use often.

​Ohio State lost QB Kyle McCord to Syracuse which elicited a collective shrug from BuckNut fans. He was not impressive. He will be preplaced by Devin Brown who was beat out by McCord over the summer.

Ohio State has also lost the bulk of its running back stable with Miyan Williams declaring for the draft, along with Chip Trayanum and Evan Pryor entering the transfer portal.

More concerning is whether superstar WR Marvin Harrison III will be playing in the game. He joined the team down in Dallas but did not practice.
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I’m going to take the better coached Tigers and the Money line at +180 to pull the upset. 

Remember the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is November 16 at the Westgate SuperBook

That was fun! I watched the games yesterday with the Doofus kids and taking the overs. Nothing like ot, whomever has the ball – just score baby! And they did, All three overs hot and the teams I had in the confidence pool all won too. Tons-o-fun.

And while taking overs is a blast, I’m not going to take that route today. I’m going to use a more standard spread approach to my investing starting with:

Tulane +11.0 vs Virginia Tech  - This spread ballooned when HC Willie Fritz decided to move on to head coach at Houston. Then star QB Michael Pratt decided to sit the bowl game out to prepare for the NFL.

But I learned the hard way to start the bowl season that the line tends to overreact to missing players and head coaches. Teams don’t suddenly unlearn all the coaching they had during the season. I mean, MSU beat Florida in a bowl with Bobby Williams as HC for crying out loud.

And Pratt missed several games during the season with backup QB Kai Horton doing OK.

Va Tech had an up and down season winning four of their last six to become bowl eligible. But those four wins were over some pretty bad teams. When facing good teams like Florida State and Louisville they got pummeled by a combined score of 73-20.
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I’ll take the Wave and the double digit points for a quatloo. 

West Virginia -6.5 vs North Carolina – Similar to Tulane, the line bumped when UNC QB Drake Maye announced he is entering the draft too. But unlike Tulane, I’m going to go with the favorite. UNC was struggling even with Maye under center.

The defense is awful forcing Maye to put up all kinds of stats to keep up. Often he couldn’t. The Heels lost four of their last six, giving up an average 37 PPG.

West Virginia quietly went 8-4 this season behind dual threat Garrett Greene. Greene led a Neer rushing attack that ranked third in the country rumbling for 234.3 yards per game. Three players, including Greene. rushed for more than 700 yards this season. Greene also threw for 2,178 yards with a solid 8.6 yards per attempt.
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The underrated WVU defense is far superior to the Heels as well. I’ll take West Virginia and lay the points.