Army -6.5 vs Missouri - Army has been good at shutting teams down. Yeah, Western Kentucky and Wake Forest, put up big numbers but those are explosive aerial offenses. That's not Missouri. The Tigers are much more effective moving the ball on the ground. 

Army has been stout against the run, holding opposing teams to 112 YPG even playing against Air Force and Navy. And now the Tigers best RB, Tyler Badie is sitting this one out.

As you expect for a service academy, Army is all about the run. And that is the Mizzou defense’s weak spot. They gave up 229 YPG on the ground, dead last in the SEC. 

​Army should be able to run all over the Tigers’ defense and pick up the win. But the spread is a bit too large for me, it moved from 3.5 to open to 6.5 now,  so I’ll take Army and the money line and parlay it with the under 54.0

North Texas  vs Miami (OH) over 55.0 – It’s the “Look what I found in the seat cushions bowl” When the season ended, there were more teams qualified for a bowl than there were bowls, so the came up with the Frisco Football Classic. Not to be confused with last night’s Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl Bruce loves the names of these bowls – he has a few NSFW potential sponsors.

Both games are being played in Frisco TX, the beer vendors are getting a workout.

And how can this be a classic? They just made it up a couple weeks ago. It’s so new it’s not included in our Confidence Pool. Not that I have much confidence in this game.
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North Texas likes to run the ball. The Redskins struggle against the run. Miami (OH) likes to pass the ball. The Mean Green struggles against the pass.
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I have no idea which of these two 6-6- meh teams will win so I’ll go with the over 55.0

Central Florida +7.0 vs Florida – Now here’s a much more fun game. UCF loves to get their shots at the SEC. In 2017, they ended up a perfect season 13-0 season by beating Auburn, ironically against their current HC Gus Malzahn.

Similar to that game, this one will come down to whether the Gators are focused or just trying to get a disappointing season out of the way. Will they be the team that had Bama on the ropes in week 3 or the team that mailed it in throughout the rest of the year, getting HC Dan Mullen fired? Their best WR Jacob Copeland opting for the transfer portal might be a clue. 
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Despite bringing in Malzahn, UCF is not the high powered attack from years past. Losing starting QB Dillon Gabriel (also in week 3) put a damper on the passing game. The defense stepped up though, behind Auburn transfer (I wonder how that happened?) DL Big Kat Bryant. Over the last 6 games they didn’t let up more than 17 points.

I’m going with the more motivated team to cover. I'm not about to bet on a team that let up 52 points to Samford. 

The confidence Pool is off to a rough start. I forgot one of my favorite strategies – put tiny points on huge underdogs. That way of if an upset happens you get a massive boost. If it doesn’t you are only out a few points.
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Already, there has been 3 favorites of a TD or better that have gone down. I guess I’ll have to win back the entry fee the old fashioned way – at the ticket window.

Kent State +3.5 vs Wyoming – It’s a matchup featuring two teams headed in opposite directions. Wyoming got off to a 4-0 start before losing six of their final eight games. Kent State started out 1-3 start before winning six of its final eight games, earning the Flashers an appearance in the MAC Championship game.

The Flash Fast Attack is a blast to watch. It’s not an Air Raid. It’s mainly a ground game but it’s go, go, go, high tempo, keep teams on their heels type of attack. The strategy has worked as Kent State offense finished the season 8th overall and despite playing Iowa and Texas A&M still averaged 32.6 PPG.

Wyoming will try to do what Northern Illinois did in the MAC championship game, keep to the run game and control the clock. The have the capability -  rumbling for over 400 yards in three of their last five games.

I’ll  go with the trends here. Kent State is 4-2 ATS while Wyoming is 3-6 ATS. And with the Flashers suspect defense I’ll put a quatloo on a same game parlay of Kent State money line and the over 59 at +345.

​San Diego State vs UTSA under 49.5 – Man, I hate this matchup. It’s two of my favorite teams this year and the two best group of Five teams not named Cincinnati. Too bad they have to play each other. Going to make for a great game though!

UTSA was one of the biggest surprises of the season. The offense was balanced and prolific. They averaged 37.8 PPG. The offense took a hit however when Joe's long lost great nephew, Sincere McCormick and his 1,479 yards opted for the NFL.
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San Diego State is also missing several player due to injury. Not that they were all that great. The Aztec’s offense was one of the worst in the country last year (111th).
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The defense was amazing, however, ranking 17th in points allowed and 14th overall. Also had the best punter in the game too in Matt Araiza. The Ray Guy winner is awesome.
 

With a weapon like that how can you not take the Spaztecs. They play close games - their last five wins have been one score games. But they just find a way to win. 

I'll take SDSU to win but no quatloos. I don't want to root against the Roadrunners. I will put a quatloo on the under 49.0 though. Both offenses are now suspect. 

There’s Rivalry Week and Championship week but now comes the best part of the season – Bowl Season! A chance, actually 44 chances including the National Championship game, to see college football games spread out so you can see them all. And a chance to see matchups that the powerhouse programs would never schedule. How about Georgia vs scUM - could you hate two teams more? Or how Oregon vs Oklahoma, two CFP regulars facing off outside the playoffs.

And there are plenty of games facing Power 5 versus excellent Group of 5 teams like Auburn vs Houston, Oregon State vs Utah State and what should be an annual game, Florida vs Central Florida.  That doesn’t include the playoff game of Cincinnati vs Bama, headed by two coaches that spurned MSU at one time or another.

It’s  44 more investment opportunities and 44 chances to hide from everyday life, grab some adult beverages and watch some entertaining football
Of course, it also a chance at one of my favorite investment opportunities – confidence pools. Not only do you have to pick the winners, you have to grade your  teams on a curve. 44 points for the slam dunk, absolutely, as sure as OSU will beat scUM again (oops) all the way down to 1 point on what the heck upsets can happen.

That’s a lot of games to sort through and evaluate. But fear not, the Doofus is here to help.
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First lets start by listing all the teams, dates, times and networks so you can get your football viewing schedule prepared. 

Now there are several ways to rank the teams including it's record, record against the spread, Sagarin rating and FPI rating

There's some other factors to consider too. The Coaching Carousel has been going nuts with many teams going into bowl season with new head coaches on the horizon. Also some teams get to play in their home state giving a semblance of home field advantage. 

And, of course, the all important spread

​All right, there's lots of data points. How do you pick you winners and how many points to put on them,  If we were to rank the teams strictly based on the ratings or the spread we get

But screw going with al favorites. There's no fun in that. One thing I like to do is pick several upsets. They happen every year and some are quite large. I also like to allocate more of my points to the back end of Bowl Season that way your are still in the competition even if you make some mistakes early. So after a season of watching way too much football - here is what I am going to enter in the pool. Wish me luck!

And here is the spreadsheet for you to use in making your own picks​ - Good Luck!

Orgeat? Not sure I have ever seen it. I'm sure Nick is well supplied though. 

There is the Navy Army cocktail version to using rum of course

She was a little easier on the eyes

Not sure I have the ingredients for this years game but I'll be sure to get some for next year.

As for the game itself - for history buffs, it’s the WWI of football games – pure trench warfare. Two bitter enemies grinding it out down the field. Ok, so there are a few aerial attacks too but so did WWI.
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Navy +7.0 vs Army (East Rutherford, NJ) – All three service academies run the triple option. All three are fantastic at running the ball. Army just happens to be a little bit better. Army ranks 2nd overall in rushing offense (Air Force is 1st) while navy is 11th.

​Army is also better at stopping the run tanking 11th versus Navy’s more meager 38th.

But how much is due to the schedule? While Army was facing such “stout” defense as UConn, Western Kentucky, Wake Forest and UMass, Navy was playing in the American Conference against the likes of Cincinnati, Houston, Marshall along with Notre Dame.

​Every team, save one, that Navy has played is going to a bowl. The Middies schedule was the third hardest this year. Army? Try 93rd.
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History will have something to do with this game. You know it will be a low scoring game. But did you know that it has gone under 15 straight years? And seven of the last 10 games have been decided by a TD or less.

I’ll take the Midshipmen (I always do Dad) but no quatloos. Still not sure if the Big Al rule covers Navy. I lean to the under 35.0 too.
Sing second Navy!

​It’s championship week!

But before we get into that, a shout out to Dr Big Guy for the great time at the Iron Bowl. From the War eagle and F16s prior to the game, the super cool light show at the end of the third quarter to the final play, it was an exciting game even if the outcome wasn’t quite what we were hoping for. As the game wound down, Dr Big Guy and the Swag Man headed down to the tunnels hoping to storm the field but Bama rallied back and won in triple OT. Crap

Meanwhile, the Big Guy and I were on the other side of the field enjoying highlights of the MSU Penn State game. Periodically, during time outs they would show live look ins of the the Land Grant Trophy game. Got to watch two Spartan scores including the game clincher. There must have been closet Spartan fans in the broadcast booth.

And, has there ever been a weirder coaching carousel season? Normally this would be the week when it starts but this year it go started well before the season end. And normally, losing coaches get fired for the not enough wins and too many losses only to be replaced by coaches from smaller schools or coordinators from the larger schools.

This year we got a coach was replaced for not getting a simple shot (Washington State) others just up and quit even if they went to the Orange Bowl two years ago and are headed to their fourth bowl in five years (Virginia)

​Utah -2.5 versus Oregon – Another, you can’t beat a team twice trap. Utah soundly beat Oregon two weeks ago. Nothing has changed and Oregon really is stumbling down the stretch. I’ll lay the points for a quatloo.

Kent State vs Northern Illinois over 74.5 – yet another rematch game. Back in the beginning of November these two went full MACtion, scoring a combined 99 points. Now Vegas is only asking for 74.5. Sure why not, overs are fun.

UL Lafayette money line over Appalachian State – Another rematch. ULL destroyed App State 41-13 back when we were in Maui. Staying with a theme here. Despte Ragin Cajun heading up to Gainesville to coach the Gators next year, I’m still taking ULL on the money line at +125

Houston vs Cincinnati under 53.0 – Unders are hard. A turnover back in your red zone or heaven forbid, overtime and it’s gone. But Houston plays good defense, even better than Cincinnati. Houston will want to prove that tomorrow. They lead the AAC in turnovers so expect Cincy to play a little conservative too.

Pitt -3.0 vs Wake Forest – Both teams can rack up the points. But Pitt plays defense, WtF doesn’t. The Panthers make just enough stops to get the cover.

Iowa money line vs scUM – I’ll be rooting for Iowa anyways. Why not cash in at +340. It’s not like I’ll be happy if the Hawkeyes merely cover.
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And for the other games I’ll do a money line parlay at +194 with:
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Oklahoma State over Baylor
San Diego State over Utah State
Georgia over Bama – bye bye Tide to the CFP

And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more, here is the 2021 Week 14 Bettors Guide

Remember - the 2022 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 29 at the Westgate SuperBook

​What better way to celebrate the Holiday Season than to go to a football game. And not just any game -  the Doofus clan is off to the Iron Bowl!

Auburn +19.5 vs Alabama – The Tigers are on a three game skid with the latest, a loss to lowly South Carolina. Meanwhile Bama is still in the CFP with the entry pass to be determined in the SEC Championship game.

When Auburn plays to their potential, they have beaten teams like Ole Miss and Arkansas. It’s a huge rivalry game so I’ll be a good guest and root for the home team and take the points. No quatloos though.

Oregon -6.5 vs Oregon State – It was one of the best games last year. Oregon State scored a late TD on a QB sneak with the backup QB to upset the Ducks.
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Oregon is beat up and was just squeaking by in games until it caught up with them last week in a beat down by Utah. The CFP is out but the PAC12 championship game and a chance to knock off Utah is there if Oregon wins the game.
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I’m taking Oregon in a revenge setting at home. Oregon State does not travel well going 1-4 on the road. No quatloos though. Oregon is way to shaky to bet on.

Remember - the 2022 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 29th at the Westgate SuperBook

​Hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving. The Doofus clan is headed down for plenty of food, boardgames and, of course, football!

It’s Rivalry Week too with lots of great games on tap starting Thursday with:

Mississippi ML @ Mississippi State – Forget the NFL, this will be the best game to watch on Thursday. Ole Miss has one of the best scoring offenses in college football but can’t stop the pass. Mississippi State has one of the best passing games in college football but can’t run or control the clock. Expect plenty of yards and points.

Ole Miss is healthy with the better quarterback and record. I’ll take the Rebs on the money line at +110

The action moves to Friday with:

The Big Ten continues its Big Ten round robin CFP Play In games. The winner of the MSU OSU game takes the lead in the Big Ten east but there are still more tests next week For State its Penn State. For Ohio State it’s scUM. 

And another Game day appearance for the Spartans. I wonder which archrival Desmond picks. Not that it matters – he’s a moron.

Michigan State +19 @ Ohio State – Yeah, I know, the Spartan pass defense sucks statistically – dead last actually. But the stat is a bit misleading. They have played bend but don’t break with teams passing down the field. But if they make stops in the red zone like against Miami (FL) they win. If they don’t, like against Purdue – they lose. It’s the key to the game. Will the BuckNuts get FGs or TDs.

And K9 shines in the big moments. Just ask scUM. Last time they saw him it was from the back as he scored his 5th TD. 
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Solid teams can keep it close against Ohio State. Penn State kept it within kept it within 9 , Nebraska also kept it within 9 and Minnesota within 14. State should be able to keep it within 19. No quatloos though. I never bet the Spartans.

And this one is for you Chris. We were watching this one with the gang under the Outdoor Ampitheatre

Wake Forest ML  +170 @ Clemson – Clemson’s defense will keep them in the game but the offense won’t be able to keep up. WtF wins this one outright.
Rock gets to crow again
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UT San Antonio -4.5 vs UAB – This game is for the CUSA West title. The Roadrunners are doing it with offense and defense ranking 12th points scored and 19th in points allowed. UAB has a solid defense but not enough offense to keep pace. UTSA is having a magical season going 10-0 so far. The magic continues at home.

UL Lafayette ML +165 @ Liberty – Apparently the odds makers are not impressed with Louisiana. They are going for their 10th straight victory versus a 7-2 record for Liberty. The Ragin Cajuns win the game outright behind their much better defense and excellent running game.

Baylor ML +100 @ Kansas State – Baylor has found something with their tandem RBs Abram Smith and Tretan Ebnar. The Bears have the nations 4th best rushing attacked. Kansas State is statistically very good against the run but the last time they faced a good running team they lost by 13 to Iowa State. Baylor is better than ISU.

Remember - the 2022 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 29, 2022 at the Westgate SuperBook

I know, the recap is late this year. The Man said I had to reprioritize. I hate the Man.

But the good news is - GO JUMBO is back baby! After a one year hiatus featuring GO MICRO, the gang returned for another great weekend of cigars, adult beverages and football!

I was concerned the SuperBook would fill up early as in prior years so I made way down around 6:00 am. In the past I would usually have to end off a few others to grab the best tables. Not this year. There was no one there.

I texted Pat and Woz to let them know I had arrived. They got down to the book in a leisurely 30-45 minutes later. We were still the only ones in the SuperBook

​We began FFDY as we always do, catching up, swapping lies, giving out our best predictions of the weekend and telling the same old stories. By the way, we are all healthy sans a little extra Covid weight, families are fine and our kids are all above average. Perhaps a blended above average for me, I’ll let them figure out the stratification.

We reached full attendance when Chuck, Berj and Trent sauntered down. The mystery guest Pete promised never showed for reasons that remain a mystery.

The gang was ready for some football. But not before Pete made a huge gaffe. We were waiting in the line to make our investments when Pete mentioned that he was taking the under Clemson UConn game. Whaaaat? That is a direct violation of the Big Al Rule. He tried to weasel out of it by saying he wasn’t betting on the Huskies, just the score. I knew better and it would come back to haunt us.

First up was the Spartans hosting Maryland. You saw it, we predicted it (but did not bet on it). Sparty roasted the Terps. The game was never really in doubt. We jumped to a 27-7 lead and never looked back. It took awhile, but K9 notched 143 yards and 2TDs. Do that again next week against the BuckNuts and you can give him a ticket to New York – first class!

Fortunately, Big Al didn’t rain brimstone and fire on the Spartans for Pete’s transgression. In fact, he did a head fake. Pete took the under 61.5 while Woz was able to get the over at 60.5. Final score 40-21. They were both winners!

​But he did take it out on our other betting Saturday. By the time the afternoon games were done I was 3-7 and down nearly a Mega Bet. Pete was about the same. Not sure why I was catching his fury. I didn’t make the bet. But Big Al always told us we are responsible for our friends when they come over. A loophole they have been exploiting for years.

​It’s GO JUMBO!!!

The gang has already assembled and celebrating a Spartan basketball win in the SuperBook. I’m still on my way to Vegas.

 was unassigned for a few weeks, laying low hoping the Man wouldn’t notice. But they found me last week and put me on the road. When I mentioned it would cost me a few days in Vegas I was given the sad puppy, suck it up buttercup look.

So I’ll be arriving long after the party is over, cigar stubs snuffed out, the drink coupons for the day exhausted and the discussion on who to take on Saturday has finished being debated. In some ways the Second Best F’ing Day of the year.

But I’ll be their bright and early for FFDY! Woz will be their early too to save the best tables and tell BeDDy we are back! And back with a gusto. After last year’s GO MICRO, demand has been building and attendance will be superb. Might have to grab a couple extra tables this year.

And what is GO JUMBO without betting on football? Chris wanted to know if I was going to do a recap after the Purdon’t win last week. I told him that I’ve already forgotten about that game. In fact, the entire weekend’s action. It was the worst of the season. I’m hoping I got my bad picks out of the wat. Time to move forward.

GO JUMBO!!