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2024 NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Sunday Part 1

1/12/2025

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PictureIt's Bo Nis's first playoff game, on the road, in the cold
Buffalo -13.5 vs Denver +166 – Don’t over think this one. It’s going to be a blow out. Denver doesn’t belong in the playoffs and f they didn’t expand the playoffs, they would not be here.

Denver has just one true win over a playoff team. That was early this season against the Bucs, before anyone thought they were a playoff team — and no, the Chiefs in Week 18 don't count. The Broncos were 1-6 against teams with 10+ wins this season.

Denver QB Bo Nix had a strong rookie season, but he's still a rookie starting in his first playoff game, on the road, in cold weather. There's also questions as to the quality of defenses Nix has faced, with Denver facing the eighth-easiest opposing defensive schedule.

Buffalo loves to play two-high safety zone looks, which should keep explosive plays down for the Broncos. Nix tends to struggle against zone coverages as well, throwing nine of his 12 interceptions this year against zone.

PictureDon't over think it - Buffalo is going to dominate
Matchups like these are typically blow outs. Home favorites of 9+ points are 10-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round, with an average win of over 17 PPG and a median win of 17.5 points. That's where this line likely closes, for teaser protection.

The Wild Card Round has been home to many big margins in recent years. Over the past three postseasons, 11 of 18 games this round have finished with a margin of 14 or higher, with a median point differential of 16 points and an average margin of victory of 14.4 PPG.

The expanded playoff field has only increased the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Only one 7-seed ever has even won a game in the NFL playoffs; they're 1-8 straight up and usually lose by a couple of scores.

The spread is 7.5 but I’m going to tease it up to 13.5 at +166

I’ll also take the Bills at the first half

Buffalo -4.5 vs Denver first half. And

Buffalo team total 30.5+ at +124

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2024 NFL WIld Card Games - Saturday

1/11/2025

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PictureMixon will roll against a LA defense missing Perryman
Houston +3.0 vs LA Chargers - The Chargers have not stopped the run well since the end of November, which was when Denzel Perryman was lost to an injury. He is listed as questionable today with a groin injury. Even if he plays he will be hobbled.

Joe Mixon figures to rip through the Chargers’ run defense. This will put Stroud into favorable down-and-distance situations. He’ll have plenty of success hooking up with Nico Collins, as the Chargers have some issues in the secondary as well.

Th Chargers are a bit overrated too,  While they did have 11 victories, eight of those 11 victories were against below .500 teams (8-1), and only three (3-5) were against above .500 teams. Two of those wins came against the Denver Broncos, the AFC’s 7 seed. The Bolts have the lowest strength of victory of all 14 playoff teams. The Chargers were 12-4-1 ATS but 2-5 ATS against playoff teams, one again both against Denver

That said, Houston, despite winning another AFC South division title, has looked a bit off all year. C.J. Stroud has had a sophomore slump, largely due to season-ending injuries at receiver, specifically Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. The offensive line has also allowed a lot of pressure, and Stroud was sacked 52 times, second-most in the league this season.

On the other side, Justin Herbert was sacked 41 times (7th most) and the Chargers OL could have its hands full with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter drawing so much focus off the edge and Tim Settle getting pressure up the middle.

This looks to be a toss up type of game so I’ll take Houston and the points

I’ll also do a prop bet of based on Perryman not at full strength of he plays

Joe Mixon 80+ yards +135​

PictureWilsons fumble at the 4 and a pick six have inflated this spread
Pittsburgh +9.5 vs Pittsburgh - This line is completely out of control.  Ravens-Steelers games are almost always close, and now Baltimore wllll be  missing its No. 1 WR Zay Flowers.

​Football fans know this matchup all too well, and bettors typically know exactly what to do in Steeler vs Ravens
 matchups: You always take the under, and you always want the underdog, especially as 'dogs of a field goal or more.

Nine straight matchups between these teams had finished within one score until Baltimore blew Pittsburgh out a few weeks ago, and the last six matchups before that one had finished at 34 points or fewer.

Yeah, the Ravens throttled the Steelers 34-17 in their last matchup but 7 of those points came on a pick six and Russel Wilson fumbled the ball at the Ravens 4.

 If there’s one team that knows how to slow down Lamar Jackson, it’s the Steelers. Pittsburgh built its defense to combat Jackson, after all. There’s a reason why the Ravens have difficulty reaching 20 points in this rivalry. They did so in the prior meeting, but seven of those points came off a pick-six.

 The forecast calls for low 30s with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH, making this a “windy under” low scoring type game.

I’ll take the points in what should be a low scoring game.

Given the windy conditions I’ll also do a prop bet of

Lamar Jackson under 217.5 yards -110 ​

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2024 Bowl Season - Texas vs Ohio State

1/10/2025

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PictureTexas' defense may be a bit overrrated
​I learned my lesson. Once again the under was looking good at the half and even better after 3. And then the 4th quarter happens. In Texas vs ASU it took a doink and OT and I lost the under. Last night, after scoring 20 points in the first three quarter, the fourth quarter opens up with four straight TDs. Arrrgh! From now on if I feel the under thunder, I’ll just do it for the first half.

Ohio State -6.0 vs Texas – There wasn’t a dominant team in college football this season... until the Ohio State Buckeyes hit the CFP, obliterating Tennessee and Oregon in the first two rounds.

Meanwhile, Texas has looked shaky in its CFP run, with its defense giving up explosive play after explosive play to Clemson and Arizona State. The Horns were a bad non-targeting call away from not being in the Cotton Bowl.

The spread opened at 4.5 but has ballooned to 6.0 based on the OSU performance.

PictureWhile OSU has determined that airborne is the way to go
So the question is, is the spread too big and victim to recency bias. Would you prefer to have Steve Sarkisian and Quinn Ewers in a big game over Ryan Day and Will Howard? And don’t forget, this is basically a home game for Texas as it is being played in the Palace in Dallas.

I’m still siding with the BuckNuts. The Longhorns’ defense is monstrously overvalued. They played a relatively soft schedule of opposing offenses — especially opposing passing attacks — and it looked that way during this CFP run.

When Texas played Clemson, Cade Klubnik threw for 340 yards. When Texas played Arizona State — a rush-heavy squad, mind you — Sam Leavitt threw for 222  yards. Keep in mind, the Sun Devils almost cracked 300 yards on the ground too.

Now imagine what is going to happen against a new-look Ohio State squad. Ryan Day tried playing “man-ball” all year by over-establishing the run. But the Buckeyes have finally realized they don’t have to do anything but toss the ball up to a uber talented receiving corps and let the explosive plays flow like water. It’s really that simple.

The “we figured our offense out finally” dropped over 40 on Tennessee and Oregon, two secondaries that rank nearly as high as Texas’. I can only imagine what Jeremiah Smith and Co. will do to the Longhorns.

Give me Ohio State and that receiving corps against an overrated Texas secondary.

PictureMatthew Golden has come into his own on deep routes
Ohio State vs Texas Over 51.5 - The above doesn’t mean that the Texas offense will be stymied. Quinn Ewers should manage to move the ball. Ohio State plays a heavy amount of Cover 1, which Ewers has wrecked throughout the year.

Buckeyes safety Jordan Hancock is exploitable on the back end, and Texas WR Matthew Golden has really come into his own on deeper routes.

Ohio State’s defense has been superb in the CFP but keep in mind what happened in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State dominated the game and held a 34-8 lead at halftime. The game was firmly in hand, but the Ducks were able to secure some late scores to push the game past the total. (Exactly what would happen if I took the under here – fool me once)

These two teams are ranked in the top 15 in scoring this season, and while I believe Ohio State will do much of the damage, Texas can put together some drives that will make this game a high-scoring affair.
​
I’ll marry these up with these wagers

PictureBut he is no Jeremiah Smith
Ohio State -3.5 v Texas 1st Half

And some player props:

Quintrevion Wisner Under 60.5 rushing yards -108
Wisner has fallen short of this prop in five of the last nine games, including two of the last three.

Georgia’s rush defense is known. Arizona State’s was underappreciated. Ohio State's is better than either of them. Then factor in possible game states. The way Ohio State’s offense is clicking right now, Texas could feel quick pressure to keep up.

A few struggling rushes would force Steve Sarkisian to commit to the pass. At that point, Wisner’s rushing yards prop would be thoroughly doomed.

Player Prop: Jeremiah Smith 100+ Receiving Yards +100
In Ohio State's first two CFP games Smith has 13 receptions for 290 yards and four touchdowns in those games.

He has over 1,200 yards on the season to go along with 14 touchdown receptions.

Texas has one of the nation's best secondaries, led by Jim Thorpe Award Winner Jahdae Barron, who has five interceptions and 11 passes defensed this season.

However, if matched up one-on-one, I am going with Smith in that matchup, given his size and speed advantages over Barron.

Additionally, Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has done a good job moving Smith around and scheming him touches. Smith is just as dangerous racking YAC yardage as he is making contested catches downfield.

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2024 Bowl Season - Semifinals Notre Dame vs Penn State

1/9/2025

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PictureDrew Allar has a tendency to take sacks
Penn State vs Notre Dame Under 45.5 –  The Semifinals kick off with a matchup of two of the best defenses in the land. Notre Dame allowed the 2nd fewest PPG while Penn State was 7th. These are two top-10 defenses by yards per play as well, with Notre Dame fifth and Penn State seventh.

The Irish run an uber-aggressive unit, blitzing at a very high rate of 36%,  while playing man coverage on the back end. Penn State QB Drew Allar’s has struggled under pressure, completing less than half his passes in pressured pockets (47%). Allar's tendency to tuck the ball and take a sack has cost the Penn State offense numerous drives all season. Minnesota, Ohio State, SMU and Boise State all produced double-digit pressures, generating 11 sacks to just three throwaways from Allar.

Penn State can run the ball, but that will create more methodical drives than explosive drives, churning the clock and limiting possessions.

PicturePenn State rush defense is stellar
I doubt if Notre Dame’s rush-heavy offense can find sustained success against Penn State’s elite front seven. You can’t run on Penn State, which ranks in the top 10 in every defensive rush metric imaginable. The Nittany Lions allowed just 3.1 yards per carry all year, and only two opposing backs to rush for more than 100 yards in a game.

The Irish aerial attack has been far below average this year mainly leaning on the explosive Riley Leonard-Jeremiyah Love-Jadarian Price rushing trio that ranks ninth in EPA per Rush. Love was injured in the Georgia game which could further limit the Notre Dame offense.

 Keep in mind this Notre Dame team scored 14 of its 23 points in the span of a minute against Georgia thanks to a strip sack that caused a short field followed by a kick return touchdown. Penn State won’t make the same mistakes.

Meanwhile, I don’t trust Allar to beat Notre Dame’s blitz heavy defense.  I’ll take the under as each team goes on seven-minute, 15-play drives that end up in FGs

PictureAllar likes to target Singleton in the big games.
I’ll match the investments with two team total bets

Notre Dame Under 21.5 +100 and
Penn State Under 21.5 -130

I’ll also hedge the unders with some player prop bets

Prop bet #1:  Penn State RB Nick Singleton Over 27.5 receiving yards – When Allar is under pressure (and not taking sacks) he loves to dump the ball off to his RB Nick Singleton. Singelton caught 39 passes for 342 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Digging deeper, most of those catches happened in the biggest games.

Against USC, where Penn State needed a big comeback, Singelton caught four balls for 39 yards. Next week at Wisconsin, which was a one-point game midway through the fourth quarter, he had three for 37. The biggest game of the year was against Ohio State, and he went for six grabs and 54 yards. And in the Big Ten Championship, he had four and 43. 
 
Penn State WR Harrison Wallace 45+ yards Receiving - Wallace is Penn State’s leading receiver after TE Tyler Warren and will be the go-to guy for Drew Allar on the outside in this game. I expect Notre Dame to blanket Warren giving more targets to Wallace. Wallace is a deep-ball threat, averaging over 15 yards per catch this season. Georgia had an incredibly inexperienced quarterback making his first career start in the quarterfinals against Notre Dame and he still managed to hit some deep shots down the field, including a 67-yard longest completion. A couple deep balls to Wallce should get the over.
Interesting Tidbit – The last time Notre Dame and Penn State played in 2007 was the first Penn State white out game. 

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2024 Bowl Season - Part 11

1/3/2025

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PictureNorth Texas is equally bad against the run
I watched the Georgia Notre Dame game at the local UGA watering hole. I went an hour before game time and it was packed, They love their Dawgs down here. I went in wearing some Georgia Tech gear which brought some hoots and hollers. And during the game quietly rooted for Notre Dame. The Domers dominated and I was of the few left in the establishment as the game ended.

We are down to three more non CFP games for the 2024 Bowl Season with two tonight.

Here’s what I will be investing in:

Texas State -14.0 v North Texas  – North Texas was terrible against the run (117th) and even worse against the pass (121st). Overall, they were 120th is scoring defense (35.8 PPG).

The Mean Green were able to make it to a bowl by outscoring their opponents through a prolific passing game. Too bad that their starting QB Chandler Morris will be transferring to Virginia and sitting this one out. True freshman Drew Mestemaker will get the call after throwing just five passes during the regular season.

PictureAnd the pass
Even with Morris, UNT was 4-8 ATS.

Texas State was relatively better on defense at 59th in scoring defense (24.3). The Bobcats will be without starting RB Ismail Mahdi. But they should still have success against the Mean Green as backup RB Lincoln Pare actually did better on a per-carry basis than Mahdi.

I’ll take a more complete roster with Texas State over a depleted UNT squad
​
Texas State -6.5 vs North Texas First Half – There are indications that Texas State starting QB Jordan McCloud may not play the entire game which means I will lean into the first half cover as well just in case.

Backup QB, freshman Brad Jackson is a dual threat and looked electric in limited playing time this year. He ran 22 times for 164 yards and four touchdowns, which is good for a healthy 7.5 yards per attempt.

And a player prop

Texas State RB Lincoln Pare over 90 yards rushing - With Mahdi out, Pare will get the bulk of the carries. UNT give up 195 YPG. Plenty of room for Pare to get his yards. 

PicturePop Watson will face a ferocious Goopher defense
Minnesota -9.5 vs Va Tech - Minnesota enters its final game of the season at 7-5, but it's much better than that record suggests. The Gophers started the season with a heartbreaking loss to North Carolina, lost by three at scUM* and fell by just a single point to CFP semifinalist Penn State. The Gophers finished the year 5-2 winning streak getting better as QB Max Brosmer gained full comfort in a new offensive system.

Va Tech will likely be without starting QB Kyron Drones. Backup QB Collin Schlee is also questionable for the bowl game. Even with Drones, the Hokies were a poor passing team averaging 192.8 passing yards (104th). Likely starter freshman  William “Pop” Watson will be thrown the wolves against a stout Gopher defense. Minnesota surrendered 17.5 points (10th),  290.9 total yards (5th) per game, 178.3 passing yards (14th) and 112.6 rushing yards (17th).

Brosmer will be playing, facing a Hokie roster devastated by opt out. Va Tech will be down 26 starters including their three best starters in the secondary. In addition, DC Chris Marve was relieved of his duties so the defense will have some unfamiliarity.   

Minnesota will simply have too much on both sides of the ball for a Hokie team that will suffer from inexperience and a lack of reps together. 

Minnesota -6.5 vs Va Tech 1st half - Minnesota likes to make teams grind out drives in the opening half, as only two of its last seven opponents surpassed the 10-point mark prior to halftime. USC, UCLA, Illinois, and Maryland each scored exactly 10 first-half points, while Wisconsin was held scoreless.


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2024 Bowl Season - Part 10

1/2/2025

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PictureThe Doink that killed the Under
I started out the New Year with a nice 4-2 start. Coulda been 5-1 but that ol’ snake bit me again. Texas was about to win the game in regulation with a chip shot FG and preserve the under but their great kicker doinks it and forces OT. Nothing kills under more than OT and of course they go into double OT with TDs all over the place.

I'm not going to get into it about why this game was postponed only to say that hate only breeds more hate. 

​I started out the New Year with a nice 4-2 start. Coulda been 5-1 but that ol’ snake bit me again. Texas was about to win the game in regulation with a chip shot FG and preserve the under. But their great kicker doinks it and forces OT. Nothing kills under more than OT and of course they go into double OT with TDs all over the place.

Notre Dame ML vs Georgia -110 - The Sugar Bowl will be a brawl between two teams with elite defenses. Points will be hard to come by, and this one will likely be decided late in the fourth quarter.

PictureStockton provided mobility to Georgia's offense but ND is well versed in stopping mobile QBs
The injury to Starting Georgia QB Carson Beck is out for the season so the Dawgs will be rolling with Gunner Stockton, who will making his first career start. And nothing says “Welcome to College Football” like facing the #1 passing defense in the nation.

When Stockton stepped in to replace Beck in the game against Texas, a heavily-scripted drive to start the second half yielded a touchdown. But then Georgia’s offense stalled under Stockton. He averaged a disastrous 4.4 yards per pass attempt. On five drives before overtime, Georgia averaged 4.49 yards per play. He also recorded an interception against the Longhorns through 16 passing attempt.

Stockton mobility was an asset to the Dawg offense but Notre Dame is well versed in defending mobile QBs in stopping both Navy and Army.

PictureWhile UGA struggles to stop mobile QBs
Stockton will also struggle to find chemistry with his WRs as Georgia leads the nation on dropped passes.

A key to the game will be Notre Dames elite OL vs Georgia’s underperforming pass rush. The Irish ground attack, led by Jeremiyah Love, should have opportunities to extend drives and control the clock, as the Bulldogs are a susceptible to allowing extended drives.  The Dawgs also struggle against mobile QBs like Notre Dame's Riley Leonard Including:
​
  • Georgia Tech's Haynes King: 24 rushes, 110 yards, 3 touchdowns
  • UMass' AJ Haston: 3 attempts, 50 yards
  • Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart: 8 attempts, 50 yards
  • Alabama's Jalen Milroe: 16 attempts, 117 yards, 2 touchdown

PictureRiley Leonard has scored TDs in 10 of his last 13 games
’ll take the more experienced Leonard over Stockton starting his first college game.
 
And a couple of player props

Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard any time TD scorer -115 – When the Domers get near the goal line they like to turn to Leonard. He’s crossed the goal line at least once in 10 of 13 games.

Georgia WR Arian Smith over 40 yards receiving - With Gunner Stockton under center, Georgia’s offensive plan likely includes short throws and screens to receivers like Smith, who can turn a quick catch into a big gain with his legs. It won’t take many to hit this mark

​
Lost in all the news about the postponement of the Sugar Bowl is that there is another game already scheduled for today

PictureCayden Lee will see more targets with Tre Harris gone
Mississippi vs Duke Under 51 – Duke will be down to their 3rd string QB as starter Malik Murphy opted out to transfer to Auburn, and backup Grayson Loftis entered the transfer portal because of Tulane’s Darian Mensah’s incoming transfer. That leaves the Blue Devil offense in the hands of Henry Belin IV.  

The Blue Devils also lost leading rusher Star Thomas to the portal. The Blue Devils are one of a dozen teams that average fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, and the Rebels surrender the second-fewest rushing yards in the country, forcing Duke to rely even more heavily on Belin. 
​

Ole Miss went over the total only twice all season as the Rebs have a stellar defense allowing just 13.9 PPG (3rd).

Lane Kiffin has been tweeting how his team will be fired up after just missing the CFP. We heard the same noise from Bama and that didn’t exactly work out, did it. So I will stay away from the spread. Also, Lane may keep bench his starters at some point in order to save them for next season. 

If that is the case I'll also add in


Mississippi -9.5 first half 

I'll throw a player prop in here too

Mississippi WR Cayden Lee over 70 yards receiving - Leading WR Tre Harris is out for the game meaning more targets for Lee and Jordan Watkins, Lee racked up over 80 yards in 4 of the last 6 games while Harris has been out. ​

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2024 Bowl Season - Ringing in 2025

1/1/2025

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PictureSparky is going to send Scattebo into a tough Texas defense
Happy New Year everyone! Mrs Doofus rang in the New Year with friends, adult beverages, euchre and of course football!

Ive been snakebit the last few days. I went 1-3 yesterday but could have been 3-1. Except, Washington scored a TD, but decided to go for two, missed it and I lost. Then, Baytor came up short by 4 points on the team total, having a TD pass overturned, a punt return for a TD come back with a penalty and worst of all, getting to the 5 yard line first and goal and doesn’t score.

Maybe the luck will turn with the ringing in the New Year. So here we go for today’s playoff games.

Texas vs Arizona State Under 52.0 – I quitting on my New Years resolution on New Years Day. Must be a record. I said no more unders but that was so 2024.

In going for unders, you are relying on both teams draining the clock by running the ball and that is what we have here. Both teams are heavily run dependent.

For ASU, star RB Cam Scattebo has been a load to take down, rushing for 1,568 yards at a clip of 6.0 yards per carry and scoring 19 touchdowns. But he faces a defense which is among the best in the country. Texas’ defensive front is arguably the best in the CFP field. The Longhorns are eighth in yards allowed per carry (3.1) and ninth in rush yards allowed per game (104.5). 

PictureWhile Texas will send Wisner into the Sparky's defense
Former Spartan QB Sam Leavitt will be missing his favorite target WR Jordyn Tyson who went down for the season with an injury on Nov 30. With Tyson out of the picture, this Horns DL will be able to hone in on Skattebo.
​
Texas HC Steve Sarkisian got back to running the football in their 38-24 win over Clemson in their first round CFP matchup. Texas ran the ball a stunning 48 times against the Tigers for a total of 292 yards. It was a big turnaround considering the Longhorns rushed a combined 60 yards on 55 carries in two losses to Georgia this season.
​
The Forks aren’t too bad stopping the run, having allowed 3.8 yards per carry and 117.8 yards per game, ranking 22nd nationally against the run.
I’m also going to go with
Texas ASU 1st half under 26.5 and a player prop parlay

Texas RB Wisner and ASU RB Scattebo both over 80 yards rushing

PictureOSU won't overlook Jeremiah Smith again
Ohio State vs Oregon Over 56.0 – The Rose bowl will have 2 Big Ten Teams. My, how things have changed.

In the last matchup Oregon and Ohio State combined 63 points and there is no reason to not expect a similar result. Both teams just shredded excellent defenses in their last games, OSU 42 Tenn 17 and Oregon 46 Penn State 37.

Despite both defenses ranking in the top ten in scoring defenses, the two offenses just have too much speed and firepower. The Buckeyes will likely try to exploit the Ducks' 63rd-ranked run defense in this one, while the Ducks will try to replicate the 340+ yards passing they put up against the Buckeyes in the first meeting. The conditions should be great and the track fast in Pasadena so buckle up for a high-scoring matchup.

I’m also going with

Ohio State vs Oregon 1st half over 28.5 – In the last matchup both teams came out fast with 46 of the 63 points scored in the first half

And a player prop
​

OSU WR Jeremiah Smith over 90 yards receiving – Part of the reason OSU lost to scUM* was they got away from their rookie phenom WR. Lesson learned. They went to him for 103 yards against Tennessee. In the first matchup he had 9 catches for 100 yards.

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Bowl Season - Part 9

12/31/2024

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PictureDespite constant pressure from Oregon, Williams still had a good outing
Washington ML vs Louisville – Another casualty of the opt out contagion, Louisville will be without its starting QB  Tyler Shough along with his top two WRs. Washington had an advantage here anyway as Washington's secondary was elite this season, ranking fifth in Pass Success Rate allowed and 10th in yards per pass allowed.

The Cards will also be missing  five key contributors on defense as well including stud DE Ashton Gillotte.

Washington QB Demond Williams Jr. took over late in the year for Will Rogers. He dazzled against #1 Oregon in the last regular season game, connected on 85% of his passes against a stifling Ducks' defense. This is key as the Cardinals are weak against the pass.  squandering an average of 225 passing yards per game, pegging them 75th. Williams should have a cleaner pocket with Gillotte not playing.

I’ll take the fuller Washington roster against Louisville depleted squad.

Baylor Team Total Over 36.5 +120 vs LSU - Big 12 schools tend to thrive on offense, and Baylor was one of the best. This season's squad averaged 434.5 yards and 34.7 points per contest. The Bears improved as the season went on scoring at least 37 points in five of their last six games, averaging 41.3 ppg.
​
LSU has so any players opting out they just mail it in in this contest. I don’t trust the LSU offense to keep up and get the overall total 

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2024 Bowl Season - Part 8

12/31/2024

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PictureDrew Allar's draft stock continues to rise
That’s it – no more unders for me. I either take overs or pass. Speaking of which I will take an over on

Penn State vs Boise State over 54.0 – The Penn State offense has picked up steam as the season has progressed causing QB Drew Allar’s draft stock to rise. The Nits put up 38 points or more in three straight games and four of the last five.

The Boise State defense has been pretty stout against the run throughout the regular season, but it hasn't faced a team like Penn State. When it faced Oregon earlier in the year,  it gave up 37 points.

On the other side, Penn State’s defense has been pretty stout against the run too but it has not played against a RB like Ashton Jeanty. He racked up 2,497 yards with 29 touchdowns on 7.3 yards per carry. Expect some explosive plays.

PictureSingleton and Allen can keep pace with Jeanty
​In the same game I’ll take:

Penn State -11.0 vs Boise State – While Boise State may have Jeanty, the Nits have one of the best RB combos in the nation with in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. If the last two games were any indication — 293 rushing yards against top-ranked Oregon in the Big Ten Championship and 189 in a blowout over SMU — the Nittany Lions should have their way against te 78th ranked Boise State rush defense.
​
The discrepancy is even bigger when it comes to the passing game. Penn State sits third nationally in Passing Success Rate, while Boise State ranks 58th.

Penn State has proven it can contend on the big stage, suffering one-possession losses to Ohio State and Oregon. Now, it's all about getting over the hump.

Alabama -16.5 vs scUM*- this is a double revenge spot for Alabama. Not only did scUM* defeat the Tide in the CFP semifinal, it then knocked out their current head coach Kalen DeBoer and his Washington team in the National Championship game.

Expect Alabama to run up the score in this matchup.


Few of Alabama's top players have opted out. The same can not be saif of scUM*. An offense that was pretty bad to begin with (100th in points per game and 117th in yards per play) will be without its two top rushing and receiving options.

Despite some slow starts this season, the Crimson Tide offense was still one of the most explosive in the country. They finished seventh in points per play and 17th in yards per play. They will face a defense that will have significant opt outs in the DL and secondary.

The revenge will be sweet.

​More to come today



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2024 Bowl Season - Part 7

12/30/2024

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PictureDrew Stevens is money
After starting out 4-1 I’ve been in a bit of a slump lately going 2-5 to bring the overall bowl record to 6-6. Some were horrendous picks. The La Tech QB was terrible and inexplicably, the Bulldogs were still running the ball despite being down 27-0 at the half.

Some were WTF. Miami sits QB Cam Ward? And Bowling Green missing 3 FGs to miss the team total by 3.5

Time to get back on the winning track. Only one game on tap today

Iowa vs Missouri under 40.5 – Iowa has its usual top defense. The Hawkeyes were 9th in points allowed (17.1 PPG). The offense improved after years of being abysmal. It relied heavily on the run game as they were 131st in passing offense and 20th in rushing offense. But their best RB Kaleb Johnson is sitting this one out.

Missouri had a similarly tough defense finishing 20th overall in points allowed (20.1 PPG). Missouri was more balanced between running and passing but will be without star WR Luther Burden III who will be also sitting this one out.

I hate taking unders but this is the way to go with two top defenses playing against offense missing their best weapons.
​
Iowa does have the better special teams and Hawkeye kicker Drew Stevens is money. In the season finale against Nebraska he kicked a 53 yarder at the buzzer to beat the Huskers 13-10. Expect a similar score today. 

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