Nick Saban hates Michigan more than you do There’s Rivalry Week and Championship week but now comes the best part of the season – Bowl Season! A chance, actually 42 chances including the National Championship game, to see college football games spread out so you can see them all.
And a chance to see matchups that the powerhouse programs would never schedule. How about Georgia vs Florida State? Yeah, the Noles can make a valid argument they got screwed with scUM amplifying it. But do you really think that playing without Jordan Travis, FSU is one of the top four teams? scUM doesn’t think so which is why they are pushing the narrative. They wanted a free spot in the CFP. So sorry Wolvies, you get to play the king of the playoffs, who hates the Blue as much as any coach, State’s traitor, now hero, Nick $aban.
And there are other great matchups too. Lots of surprise teams taking on storied programs, such as Missouri vs Ohio State, Arizona vs Oklahoma and Oregon State vs Notre Dame. Other other interesting matchups include Penn State vs Ole Miss and Clemson vs Kentucky. Of course, the other side of the CFP should be a dandy too, Texas vs Washington.
And there are plenty of games facing Power 5 versus excellent Group of 5 teams like Oregon vs Liberty, Va Tech vs Tulane and Troy vs Duke.
It’s 42 more investment opportunities and 42 chances to hide from everyday life, grab some adult beverages and watch some entertaining football
Of course, it also a chance at one of my favorite investment opportunities – confidence pools. Not only do you have to pick the winners, you have to grade your teams on a curve. 42 points for the slam dunk, absolutely, as sure as Bama to win the CFP all the way down to 1 point on what the heck upsets can happen.
That’s a lot of games to sort through and evaluate. But fear not, the Doofus is here to help.
First lets start by listing all the teams, dates, times and networks so you can get your football viewing schedule prepared.
And a chance to see matchups that the powerhouse programs would never schedule. How about Georgia vs Florida State? Yeah, the Noles can make a valid argument they got screwed with scUM amplifying it. But do you really think that playing without Jordan Travis, FSU is one of the top four teams? scUM doesn’t think so which is why they are pushing the narrative. They wanted a free spot in the CFP. So sorry Wolvies, you get to play the king of the playoffs, who hates the Blue as much as any coach, State’s traitor, now hero, Nick $aban.
And there are other great matchups too. Lots of surprise teams taking on storied programs, such as Missouri vs Ohio State, Arizona vs Oklahoma and Oregon State vs Notre Dame. Other other interesting matchups include Penn State vs Ole Miss and Clemson vs Kentucky. Of course, the other side of the CFP should be a dandy too, Texas vs Washington.
And there are plenty of games facing Power 5 versus excellent Group of 5 teams like Oregon vs Liberty, Va Tech vs Tulane and Troy vs Duke.
It’s 42 more investment opportunities and 42 chances to hide from everyday life, grab some adult beverages and watch some entertaining football
Of course, it also a chance at one of my favorite investment opportunities – confidence pools. Not only do you have to pick the winners, you have to grade your teams on a curve. 42 points for the slam dunk, absolutely, as sure as Bama to win the CFP all the way down to 1 point on what the heck upsets can happen.
That’s a lot of games to sort through and evaluate. But fear not, the Doofus is here to help.
First lets start by listing all the teams, dates, times and networks so you can get your football viewing schedule prepared.
Now there are several ways to rank the teams including its record, record against the spread, and FPI rating.
There's some other factors to consider too. The Coaching Carousel has been going nuts with many teams going into bowl season with new head coaches on the horizon. Also some teams get to play in their home state giving a semblance of home field advantage.
And a factor that has become even more important and accelerating over the last few years, players either entering the portal or opting out to prepare for the draft.
And, perhaps, the most important factor - the spread
OK lots of factors to consider. First lets start with some basics. Here's the teams records and how they did versus the spread.
There's some other factors to consider too. The Coaching Carousel has been going nuts with many teams going into bowl season with new head coaches on the horizon. Also some teams get to play in their home state giving a semblance of home field advantage.
And a factor that has become even more important and accelerating over the last few years, players either entering the portal or opting out to prepare for the draft.
And, perhaps, the most important factor - the spread
OK lots of factors to consider. First lets start with some basics. Here's the teams records and how they did versus the spread.
All right, there's lots of data points. How do you pick you winners and how many points to put on them, If we were to rank the teams strictly based on the spread we get
All right, there's lots of data points. How do you pick you winners and how many points to put on them, If we were to rank the teams strictly based on the spread we get
Another valuable tool is ESPN’s Football Power Index or FPI. According to ESPN the FPI “the FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.”
Below is the allocation of points using strictly the FPI and then allocating points based on an average of the spread and the FPI
Below is the allocation of points using strictly the FPI and then allocating points based on an average of the spread and the FPI
Now you are probably wondering by now why some of those spreads look funky. Well, its because of an accelerating nightmare, players opting for the portal prior to the bowl (the NCAA really needs to fix the whole NIL/portal thing) or deciding to sit out the game to prepare (save themselves) for the NFL draft.
Here are the latest key players sitting the bowl season out
Here are the latest key players sitting the bowl season out
But screw going with all favorites. There's no fun in that. One thing I like to do is pick several upsets. They happen every year and some are quite large. I also like to allocate more of my points to the back end of Bowl Season that way your are still in the competition even if you make some mistakes early. So after a season of watching way too much football - here is what I am going to enter in the pool.
And here is all that info and a lot more in one file - Good Luck!
| bowl_predictions_2023.xlsx |
