New Mexico State has covered 10 straight games The Doofus has been on a roll lately. Ever since I abandoned the parlay strategy in week 10 I have gone 15-3. Now it’s the Championship Week! Only the best and most motivated teams will be playing so here is some stats to consider.
True home and road underdogs ( as opposed to neutral site) have have gone a respectable 25-17 ATS (59.5%). The best conference underdogs: MAC (12-5-1, 70.6%). The worst conference underdogs: ACC (7-11, 38.9%)
Investing in unranked teams has been very profitable against ranked teams in conference title games, going 15-8 ATS (65.2%). This year, SMU and New Mexico State fit that mold
Some of the best teams ATS are playing this weekend including
New Mexico State: 11-2 (6-1 as an underdog, covering 10 straight)
UNLV: 10-2 (5-0 as an underdog)
Oregon: 9-2-1
Miami (OH): 9-3
True home and road underdogs ( as opposed to neutral site) have have gone a respectable 25-17 ATS (59.5%). The best conference underdogs: MAC (12-5-1, 70.6%). The worst conference underdogs: ACC (7-11, 38.9%)
Investing in unranked teams has been very profitable against ranked teams in conference title games, going 15-8 ATS (65.2%). This year, SMU and New Mexico State fit that mold
Some of the best teams ATS are playing this weekend including
New Mexico State: 11-2 (6-1 as an underdog, covering 10 straight)
UNLV: 10-2 (5-0 as an underdog)
Oregon: 9-2-1
Miami (OH): 9-3
Its Nix vs Penix in a Heisman race showdown Liberty and Alabama weren't too far behind the group above at 8-4 ATS.
Meanwhile, the worst ATS teams playing this weekend are Georgia (4-8) and Tulane (5-7).
So after factoring all that in and having watched way too much football, this week I'm going with
Washington +9.5 vs Oregon – The Pac 12 will go out with a crescendo, not a whimper. Fierce rivals meet with a championship on the line, a playoff berth at stake and Heisman Trophy ramifications.
Washington may be undefeated, but its last three victories have been by one score. Oregon, meanwhile, has had only game closer than double digits, with an average margin of victory of 26.
I get it, Oregon is playing lights out right now. But a near double digit favorite over an undefeated team that beat them once. You saw the stats on revenge games.
I’ll take the underdog in what should be a great game.
Meanwhile, the worst ATS teams playing this weekend are Georgia (4-8) and Tulane (5-7).
So after factoring all that in and having watched way too much football, this week I'm going with
Washington +9.5 vs Oregon – The Pac 12 will go out with a crescendo, not a whimper. Fierce rivals meet with a championship on the line, a playoff berth at stake and Heisman Trophy ramifications.
Washington may be undefeated, but its last three victories have been by one score. Oregon, meanwhile, has had only game closer than double digits, with an average margin of victory of 26.
I get it, Oregon is playing lights out right now. But a near double digit favorite over an undefeated team that beat them once. You saw the stats on revenge games.
I’ll take the underdog in what should be a great game.
Miami's defense will carry the day Miami (OH) +8.0 @ Toledo – A MAC team that plays defense? Let me introduce you to the Miami (OH) Redskins. Toledo won 21-17 in week 8, a game where the Rockets got up 21-3 at the half. The defense has been fantastic ever since. It was the last time anyone got to 17 points or more.
Spotting over a TD against this defense is too much for me. I’ll take the real Miami and the points.
New Mexico State +11.5 @ Liberty – Another rematch game. Liberty won back in week 2 by a score of 33-17. Three turnovers ruined the Aggies day, an early season issue. NMSU has stopped coughing up the ball losing it only 3 times in the last ten games.
Liberty may be 12-0 but did not play a Power Five team. The Big Guy is still grumbling over New Mexico State’s domination of Auburn just a couple of weeks ago.
I’ll take the double digit dog in a game featuring two teams playing as good as anyone in the Group of Five.
Spotting over a TD against this defense is too much for me. I’ll take the real Miami and the points.
New Mexico State +11.5 @ Liberty – Another rematch game. Liberty won back in week 2 by a score of 33-17. Three turnovers ruined the Aggies day, an early season issue. NMSU has stopped coughing up the ball losing it only 3 times in the last ten games.
Liberty may be 12-0 but did not play a Power Five team. The Big Guy is still grumbling over New Mexico State’s domination of Auburn just a couple of weeks ago.
I’ll take the double digit dog in a game featuring two teams playing as good as anyone in the Group of Five.
As will SMU's Georgia -5.5 vs Alabama Georgia tends to sleepwalk when playing inferior foes but turns the throttle on when challenged. Remember when Kentucky was supposed to give the Dawgs a good game. 51-13. Bama needed a miracle to beat Auburn. No more miracles. Dawgs dominate
SMU Money Line @ Tulane – SMU is exactly the type of team that Tulane doesn’t want to face right now. The Wave relies on QB Michael Pratt and the passing game. He will come into the game with his two best receivers hurt and try to move the ball against an elite secondary. Not only is the secondary elite but the pass rush is too.
High tempo, high scoring SMU lost its star QB Preston Stone, who broke his leg last week versus Navy. Backup Kevin Jennings performed well enough in relief this season (18-for-24 passing for 330 yards, three TDs, and zero INTs). He shouldn’t have much trouble against a sub standard Tulane secondary.
I’m going with SMU’s defense and take the money line at +142
Michigan Iowa Over 34.5 – The trend says take the over. I agree. Iowa games have been going under for awhile but they have played a ton of pathetic offenses. Penn State hung 31 on the Hawkeyes, Michigan will likely do better to get a better seeding in the CFP.
SMU Money Line @ Tulane – SMU is exactly the type of team that Tulane doesn’t want to face right now. The Wave relies on QB Michael Pratt and the passing game. He will come into the game with his two best receivers hurt and try to move the ball against an elite secondary. Not only is the secondary elite but the pass rush is too.
High tempo, high scoring SMU lost its star QB Preston Stone, who broke his leg last week versus Navy. Backup Kevin Jennings performed well enough in relief this season (18-for-24 passing for 330 yards, three TDs, and zero INTs). He shouldn’t have much trouble against a sub standard Tulane secondary.
I’m going with SMU’s defense and take the money line at +142
Michigan Iowa Over 34.5 – The trend says take the over. I agree. Iowa games have been going under for awhile but they have played a ton of pathetic offenses. Penn State hung 31 on the Hawkeyes, Michigan will likely do better to get a better seeding in the CFP.
