The predictions were very profitable. I went 11-6 with most of the wins being +130 and above. It would have been a great day to have been in the SuperBook. Maybe some year
As far as the picks themselves
As far as the picks themselves
1. Caleb Williams QB Southern Cal | This pick fell into the Bears lap and they went totally chalk (he went off at -20000 or bet $200 to win $1) taking WIlliams. All the talking heads say it was, best QB in the draft, future superstar and all that. I'll go contrarian here. Yeah, he was phenomenal 2 years ago when winning the Heisman but what about last year. Whole bunch of nothing. The Bears suck at picking QBs. The curse continues. Williams is the starter but will end up being just average |
2. Jayden Daniels QB LSU | This will be fun to see how it plays out. Is Maye or Daniels the better pick? Daniels was the safer pick coming on late in his career to win the Heisman. The inconsistency shown through his career at Arizona State and LSU disappeared, especially in the second half of the season, Daniels is on the older side and doesn't have elite physical tools as a passer, but his elusiveness and speed as a runner caused defenses major headaches. |
3. Drake Maye QB North Carolina | The Patriots were desperate for a QB and would be happy with any of the Top 3. They ended up with the riskiest pick but the one with the most upside. He's just 21 years old and has shown flashes of elite downfield, tight-window accuracy to go along with fantastic running ability for a bigger quarterback. He will be the best of the three |
4. Marvin Harrison WR Ohio State | The first non QB comes off the board. And the first Pro Bowler too. The Cardinals needed a receiver and they got a great one Harrison. He is as clean a prospect as they come. There was no drop in production going from C.J. Stroud to Kyle McCord. Kyler Murray needed a star WR after DeAndre Hopkins left the team. They got an upgrade. |
5. Joe Alt OT Notre Dame | The Chargers drafted the best player available, Alt is a prototypical left tackle at 6-foot-8 5/8 and 321 pounds, He's played like a first-rounder the past two years, not only shutting down edge rushers with pure size but attacking defenders in the run game, But the Chargers are passing on the top receivers despite having nothing at receiver. And they are picking a player to play right tackle who has zero experience playing right tackle. This selection could still pan out but there not a whole lot to like about it. - yet |
6. Malik Nabors WR LSU | Malik Nabers could have gone fourth or fifth and no one would have blinked, so the Giants getting him with the sixth pick id a gift. The Giants have sorely needed a No. 1 receiver ever since another LSU product, Odell Beckham Jr., was traded. They finally have one. Nabers’ quickness off the line, tight routes, strong hands and electric moves after the catch are reminiscent of Odell. Too bad his talents are going to be wasted on Danial Jones. |
7. JC Latham OT Alabama | The Titans needed a tackle and got someone who figures to be a top-flight right tackle in the NFL for a long time. for the next decade. With Alt off the board, this pick made the most sense for a team desperately in need of a real dude to join last year's first-rounder, Peter Skoronski. Bullyball is back in Tennessee! |
8. Michael Penix QB Washington | Talk radio is still blowing up in the ATL over this pick. The morning of the draft, one of the talking heads was saying that you take a QB when you want him not when you need him. I thought he was just doing a typical BS take but he was spot on with the prediction. And how bad is Desmond Ritter turning out to be? he Falcons bring in Kirk Cousins for $180 million and then draft a QB who wont see the field for several years. I like Penix but not here and not to the Falcons. |
9. Rome Odunze WR Washington | Bear fans are ecstatic. Odunze lining up with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen will give NFC North teams some fits. Odunze has good size and elite ball skills. While most receivers look to open separation windows with speed or route running, Odunze seems to relish jump balls and contested catches. |
10. JJ McCarthy QB Michigan | Overrated and over drafted. The Vikings were in a world of hurt losing an average QB in Kirk Cousins and ended up getting a QB with a lower ceiling in McCarthy. Think Mac Jones here. He has modest arm strength, his ball placement is below average and he leaves throws behind moving targets, allowing defenders to challenge catches. The Vikings will be moving on from this pick in a couple years. |
11. Olu Fashanu OT Penn State | Despite signing Tyron Smith and trading for Morgan Moses (both are 33 years old) this offseason, the team still decided to pick Fashanu. He has the build, intelligence and smooth movements for a tackle but he will need to develop behind the veterans. This is a good pick for the long haul, but the Jets with Rodgers nearing the ned of his career, the Jets needed an impact player for 2024 (say TE Brock Bowers) |
12. Bo Nix QB Oregon | Quarterback thirst officially went too far. There was simply no need for the Broncos to force this pick here. This is reminiscent of Vikings drafting Christian Ponder or the Jaguars drafting Blaine Gabbert. Both quarterbacks were second-round prospects who were pushed way up because of position and need. Bo Nix does not have the profile of the quarterback that’s going to save Denver. He does not have the arm talent of the quarterbacks picked ahead of him, and he lacks elite quickness as a runner. Nix is closer to being a backup in the NFL than a franchise starter. |
13. Brock Bowers TE Georgia | So what does this say about last years Michael Mayer pick. Mayer disappointed as a rookie but maybe the Raider are trying to set up a stud 2 TE combo package. And whomever is the QB next year is going to get (another) weapon. Bower ranks between George Kittle and Travis Kelce, He's agile and powerful after the catch, Bowers can line up at multiple spots for his new team while providing enough blocking to give running backs a chance to reach the sideline or find a seam. |
14. Tallese Fuaga OT Oregon State | With former first-round pick Trevor struggling, Ryan Ramczyk's career in doubt due to issues and the recent retirement of lineman James Hurst, the Saints had a screaming need to to address offensive tackle in Round 1. Even though the Saints needed a left tackle and Fuaga has played right tackle, the pick still makes sense. Fuaga’s power off the ball, nasty attitude and ability to move to the second level made him a favorite among NFL personnel evaluators. This is a strong pick that gives the Saints some much needed flexibility and depth up front. |
15. Lalatu Latu Edge UCLA | The Colts are getting the top defensive player at No. 15 overall. That’s unreal. Latu would have gone eighth overall if Arthur Blank didn’t make a bone headed play. . Latu's an inspirational story. A neck injury forced him to retire from football at Washington, but he came back with a vengeance the past two years at UCLA after being cleared to play. He combines the power to take tackles into the backfield, the strong hands to disengage for secondary rushes if quarterbacks step up to avoid him. He also has the closing spped to chase down RBs. He might not be Von Miller or prime Khalil Mack, but he’s a talented player in his own right that should be an 8-10 sack guy in the NFL.. |
16. Brian Murphy DT Texas | The Seahawks got one of the few truly disruptive interior defenders in the draft with Murphy, something they really needed. His skills as a run-stuffer, his quick first step making it tough to handle one-on-one, especially on reach blocks and he is an interior pressure machine made him worthy of a pick in the top half of the first round, something Seattle needed in its front four. You have to love the value. . The Vikings loved Murphy enough to take him at 11 but blew it with the McCarthy pick. Seattle got a good one here. |
17. Dallas Turner Edge Alabama | Turner fell in the draft due to medical issues but Minnesota saw value and surrendered third- and fourth-round picks next year to move up just six spots to nab him at 17. Turner is a great talent, and his 4.46 40 turned a lot of heads at the combine. He's a rugged defender and the potential to be a dynamite edge defender in the NFL. but there’s still s high risk with this pick. |
18. Amarius Mims OT Goeriga | Mims is a large human (6-7 3/4, 340 pounds), one of the few players able to match the size of Cincinnati starting left tackle Orlando Brown (6-8, 345) and free-agent Trent Brown (6-8, 355). Mims' power and ability make running around his pass protection extremely difficult, an important feature in protecting QB Joe Burrow. Not only does he have the best technique of this years class but he is a people-mover in the run game, as well. There are questions however, coming off an ankle injury last season and playing a total of just 775 snaps in three seasons with the Bulldogs. |
19. Jared Verse Edge Florida State | Jared Verse isn’t close to the other two edge rushers who were chosen earlier. He's not be as dynamic or bendy off the edge as them and he did see a drop in production from 2022 (17.5 tackles for loss with nine sacks) to 2023 (12 tackles for loss with nine sacks), Still, he looked plenty agile last season and has the power and relentlessness to accumulate sacks on primary and secondary moves. His strength in the run game should not be overlooked, either. Verse likely belonged in the 20s and for your first first round pick since 2016 its a bit disappointing for a team that hadn’t drafted in the first round since 2016. Overall a safe, solid pick for the Rams at this point in the draft. |
20. Troy Fautuna OG Washington | Fautanu has all the skills necessary to be a long-term starter on the offensive line, which is something that Pittsburgh still needs. The Steelers really need a center. Troy Fautanu is viewed mostly as a right tackle or guard, but he can play center as well. He was a very effective pass protector for Washington with his 34 1/2-inch arms, natural bend and quickness. He might move inside because of his toughness and mobility in the run game. He joins last year's first-rounder, Broderick Jones who will be tasked with protecting the QB. Too bad their talents will be wasted on QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. He comes with some major risk, too as he was flagged medically by some teams. |
21. Chop Robinson Edge Penn State | Robinson is a raw pass rusher, but he’s found himself in a good spot playing for new Dolphins DC Anthony Weaver. Robinson has all the tools in the world to become an elite pass rusher in the NFL if he can get a few signature moves down. Robinson’s range was in the 20s, so the Dolphins are getting appropriate value. They needed a pass rusher to hound all the great quarterbacks in the AFC, and Robinson will help them do that. |
22. Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo | Wow, not a Georgia or Alabama player? Not only that, but GM Howie Roseman did not need to make a move upwards to find a great value at a position of need. Mitchell's ability to run a 4.33 40 at the combine at 6-foot and 195 pounds locked his spot in the first round. His six interceptions and 46 pass breakups during his time at Toledo showed his closing speed and ability to play the ball, as did his work against top receivers at the Senior Bowl. This pick might be the steal of the draft when we look back. |
23. Brian Thomas Jr WR LSU | Calvin Ridley is gone but won't be missed. He was problematic in the locker room. But the Jags will miss his production. Thomas is an explosive wide receiver who has the physical frame that the Jaguars needed in their wide receiver room. Thomas is a bit raw on some of the finer points of wide receiver play, but there’s no doubting his potential to be a truly dynamic playmaker in the NFL. Give the Jags brownie points for trading down and still landing Thomas. They could easily have ly taken him at No. 17 without any complaints. |
24. Terrion Arnold CB Alabama | I'll bet the Lions were absolutely shocked that Terrion Arnold was still on the board at No. 24. He wasn’t going to last until No. 29, Detroit moving up five spots to land someone who was considered the top cornerback in the draft by some makes sense. Detroit desperately needed a cornerback in the wake of Cam Sutton’s arrest, and Arnold seems like an instant upgrade. Arnold has a chance to be the best cornerback on Detroit’s roster from Day 1. Time will tell, however, if trading a 3rd round pick to Dallas instead of waiting for Arnold's former teammate, Kool=Aid McKinstry or Nate Wiggins later in the round would have made more sense. |
25. Jordan Morgan OT Arizona | There was little doubt the Packers were looking at offensive tackles early in the draft following the release of David Bakhtiari. Morgan's size and game are very similar to the former Pro Bowler’s, He's a solid, smooth pass protector who doesn't get beat with speed very often, but he can struggle against power rushers and isn't a dominant run blocker. There’s some questions with Morgan’s toughness too. Green Bay is smart to do something to protect Jordan Love, so this seems like a solid choice. |
26. Graham Barton C Duke | Barton is a stud offensive lineman who can play all five positions up front. He was announced as a center, so he may wind up on the interior after playing left tackle at Duke. He's well-equipped for the move. He’s the most versatile lineman in the draft and the Buccaneers may have just gotten a steal. Barton is going to be very useful for the Buccaneers, who have immense problems in the interior of the offensive line. He could have gone a bit earlier than this, so there is value in the pick too. |
27. Darius Robinson Edge Missouri | Robinson isn’t a bad player, but he’s not the most dynamic guy on the defensive line. He’s a steady player who should be a solid piece for the Cardinals’ defensive line rotation. Robinson will help fill a huge need for the Cardinals but that’s not necessarily the type of player that feels like a need in the first round. Still, he’s someone that will help the Cardinals up front, who lost so much talent on the defensive line in recent years. |
28. Xavier Worthy WR Texas | No one should be surprised that the Chiefs selected a receiver. It was already a need before Rashee Rice got into trouble. The Chiefs add some speed to their wide receiver room and some playmaking for Patrick Mahomes. Everyone expected Worthy to run fast at the combine because of his track background and explosiveness after the catch. Then, a record-setting 4/21 record setting 40, locked his place in the first round. A 165-pound player in the first round is a bit of a tough sell. Worthy is certainly lean (5-11 1/4, 165 pounds), but he’s not significantly smaller than Eagles receiver DaVonra Smith (6-0, 170). Worthy brings the potential to produce chunk plays, which was a need for the defending champions. It will be worth trading up for Worthy. |
29. Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma | The Cowboys needed a left tackle to develop and at least have a prospect now in Guyton. He’s got a bit of a way to go as far as technique is concerned, but the physical tools and frame to grow into something for the long term are there. Guyton might have a lower floor than some of the other tackle prospects, but the upside is still here. Overall, this was a sharp move by the Cowboys. With Troy Fautanu gone, the Cowboys liked Tyler Guyton and Graham Barton the most as candidates for No. 24 overall. They could have taken either there, but they moved down five spots and acquired most assets, and yet they still got their man. This was excellent drafting after last year’s debacle. |
30. Nate Wiggins CB Clemson | Wiggins' recovery speed stood out on tape and was confirmed with a 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. He's not a physical tackler. Wiggins weighed just 173 pounds (measuring 6-foot-1 3/8 inch) at the combine, which is similar to last year's lean first-round corner for Washington, Emmanuel Forbes, who struggled as a rookie. He fills a position of need for the declining Ravnes secondary but he comes with some risk. Wiggins is a rangy, fast corner, but he needs to add weight and strength before he can be a real contributor for the Ravens defense. |
31. Ricky Pearsall WR Florida | Rumors of a trade demand by Brandon Aiyuk likely led to the selection of Pearsall. His silky smooth routes and solid hands were evident with the Gators and at the Senior Bowl but Florida's very average passing attack didn’t help his cause. Pearsall could have been had later than this. |
32. Xavier Legette WR South Carolina | Wide receiver was a huge need, even with Diontae Johnson on the team. They needed to add a bigger player to their wide receiver room. His size/speed combination is impressive, but he was a one-year full-time starter for South Carolina and there will be comparisons with other pass catchers who were available, including Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey, as all of their careers unfold. |
Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is November 16 at the Westgate SuperBook