Under new OC Andy Kotelnicki, Drew Allr will be going deep more often After starting out the Bowl Season 0-5, I've been on a roll going 7-1. Let's see if that trend can continue with
Penn State vs Mississippi over 50.0 – Another game, another chance at an over.
Let's start with the Mississippi side of things. Mississippi has been prolific against average to good defenses but struggles against elite defenses. Penn State’s metrics says it is elite but it will be missing likely 1st round draft pick, CB Kalen King. King played all season but was dinged up in one game, Indiana. As it turned out, that was the game where Penn State gave up the most points.
Penn State will also be missing elite DL Chop Robinson. His absence will not only benefit the run game, but it will allow Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart extra time to throw the ball down the field. Expect the Rebels to develop some explosive plays down the field
On the other side of the ball, Penn State changed OCs which resulted in a pick up in tempo and more throws downfield. As typical for Lane Kiffen defense it’s not very good. It'll also be without its leading pass rusher and best run stuffer Cedric Johnson as well. Though the Reb defense has been solid against the pass, it has struggled against the run. The Rebels defense ranked 120th in broken tackles allowed which will lead to several Penn State explosive plays.
Without Johnson, PSU QB Drew Allar will have plenty of time to go deep. This is a great matchup for Allar considering the Rebels play a lot of quarters coverage, which he's had the most success against.
Both of these offenses should find plenty of success, as it’ll most likely come down to finishing their drives with touchdowns on instead of field goals. I’ll take the over 50.0 for a quatloos.
Penn State vs Mississippi over 50.0 – Another game, another chance at an over.
Let's start with the Mississippi side of things. Mississippi has been prolific against average to good defenses but struggles against elite defenses. Penn State’s metrics says it is elite but it will be missing likely 1st round draft pick, CB Kalen King. King played all season but was dinged up in one game, Indiana. As it turned out, that was the game where Penn State gave up the most points.
Penn State will also be missing elite DL Chop Robinson. His absence will not only benefit the run game, but it will allow Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart extra time to throw the ball down the field. Expect the Rebels to develop some explosive plays down the field
On the other side of the ball, Penn State changed OCs which resulted in a pick up in tempo and more throws downfield. As typical for Lane Kiffen defense it’s not very good. It'll also be without its leading pass rusher and best run stuffer Cedric Johnson as well. Though the Reb defense has been solid against the pass, it has struggled against the run. The Rebels defense ranked 120th in broken tackles allowed which will lead to several Penn State explosive plays.
Without Johnson, PSU QB Drew Allar will have plenty of time to go deep. This is a great matchup for Allar considering the Rebels play a lot of quarters coverage, which he's had the most success against.
Both of these offenses should find plenty of success, as it’ll most likely come down to finishing their drives with touchdowns on instead of field goals. I’ll take the over 50.0 for a quatloos.
A freshman QB and depleted roster against Georgia? I'll lay the points Georgia -21 vs Florida State – Should Florida State be in the CFP. Perhaps, if they were at full strength. But they are far removed from full strength now. Not only did the lose QB Jordan Travis in their penultimate game but they have been absolutely crucified by opt outs and transfers.
Not only is Travis out but backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker recently entered the portal, That means that freshman Brock Glenn start after he threw for just 55 yards on 8-of-21 passing in the AAC Championship.
FSU had a really explosive offense this season. However, leading receivers Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and tight end Jaheim Bell all opted out for the NFL Draft. So, we’ll most likely see tight end Kyle Morlock and wide receiver Darion Williamson as two of the main targets.
The Noles will be missing more than half of their running back room. Trey Benson opted out, Lawrance Toafili is out with injury, and CJ Campbell and Rodney Hill entered the portal. The run game will suffer, but it’s not like it was great anyway.
Conversely, it doesn’t look like the Bulldogs will have many opt-outs. While there are quite a few players in the portal, the only two names that stand out in terms of opt-outs are tight end Brock Bowers — a projected top-15 pick in the draft — and offensive tackle Amarius Mims, another projected first-rounder.
Up until the SEC Championship, Georgia was hands down the best team in college football. The Bulldogs may have had a few games that were close calls, but they always pulled away.
While -21 sounds like a big spread for the Orange Bowl, I think it's generous. Florida State will roll out a freshman quarterback and a number of backups against a top-five Georgia team that's mostly at full strength.
I’ll take the Dawgs and lay the points in what should be a blowout.
Not only is Travis out but backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker recently entered the portal, That means that freshman Brock Glenn start after he threw for just 55 yards on 8-of-21 passing in the AAC Championship.
FSU had a really explosive offense this season. However, leading receivers Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and tight end Jaheim Bell all opted out for the NFL Draft. So, we’ll most likely see tight end Kyle Morlock and wide receiver Darion Williamson as two of the main targets.
The Noles will be missing more than half of their running back room. Trey Benson opted out, Lawrance Toafili is out with injury, and CJ Campbell and Rodney Hill entered the portal. The run game will suffer, but it’s not like it was great anyway.
Conversely, it doesn’t look like the Bulldogs will have many opt-outs. While there are quite a few players in the portal, the only two names that stand out in terms of opt-outs are tight end Brock Bowers — a projected top-15 pick in the draft — and offensive tackle Amarius Mims, another projected first-rounder.
Up until the SEC Championship, Georgia was hands down the best team in college football. The Bulldogs may have had a few games that were close calls, but they always pulled away.
While -21 sounds like a big spread for the Orange Bowl, I think it's generous. Florida State will roll out a freshman quarterback and a number of backups against a top-five Georgia team that's mostly at full strength.
I’ll take the Dawgs and lay the points in what should be a blowout.
Wyoming will be fired up for retiring HC Craig Bohl Wyoming -4,5 vs Toledo – Forget opt outs, transfers and all the rest. The number one way to handicap Bowl games is motivation. And the biggest motivational advantage of the Bowl season is Wyoming giving it all for retiring HC Craig Bohl.
After 10 years as the head coach for Wyoming, Craig Bohl will retire after this game. The 65-year-old has led the Cowboys to a bowl game in six of the last eight years. With a win on Saturday, the Cowboys will reach nine wins for the first time since 1996 and finish with the best season of Bohl’s career.
It might be more difficult to ignite the Rockets, who are coming off a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship, failing to defend their conference title against a backup quarterback. Over the last 20 years, the loser of the MAC Championship game has gone just 6-14 in their bowl game.
Toledo led the MAC with nine players named first-team All-MAC. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they will be with at least three of them. Quarterback Dequan Finn, and MAC offensive player of the year, running back Peny Boone
In addition, star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell projects as a second-round pick in the NFL Draft and is likely to opt out of this game.
I’ll take a fired up Wyoming team with a gritty defense and lay the points against a depleted Toledo for a quatloo.
After 10 years as the head coach for Wyoming, Craig Bohl will retire after this game. The 65-year-old has led the Cowboys to a bowl game in six of the last eight years. With a win on Saturday, the Cowboys will reach nine wins for the first time since 1996 and finish with the best season of Bohl’s career.
It might be more difficult to ignite the Rockets, who are coming off a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship, failing to defend their conference title against a backup quarterback. Over the last 20 years, the loser of the MAC Championship game has gone just 6-14 in their bowl game.
Toledo led the MAC with nine players named first-team All-MAC. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they will be with at least three of them. Quarterback Dequan Finn, and MAC offensive player of the year, running back Peny Boone
In addition, star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell projects as a second-round pick in the NFL Draft and is likely to opt out of this game.
I’ll take a fired up Wyoming team with a gritty defense and lay the points against a depleted Toledo for a quatloo.
