Jason Milroe can beat you with his arm and his feet Alabama +1.5 vs Michigan – Of course I’ll take any scUM opponent. Even $aban and the Tide. My two most hated teams fouling the most beautiful of all the bowls.
Now the question is, is it a heart bet or would I make the bet if the teams were different. Yup, it’s a legit bet.
Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh last met in the 2020 Citrus Bowl, a 35-16 beat down by the Crimson Tide. Michigan has lost six straight bowl games under Harbaugh, including the last two semifinal games against Georgia and TCU. Michigan will be playing in the Rose Bowl for the 21st time, losing the previous three dating back to 2004.
Nick Saban has had a month to prepare, where he excels, going 16-6 in bowls compared to Boogerman;s 2-7 record. Alabama is no stranger to semifinal games, winning six of these matchups in a row, scUM is 0-2.
These two teams are pretty similar. Both love to run the ball and play defense.
Now the question is, is it a heart bet or would I make the bet if the teams were different. Yup, it’s a legit bet.
Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh last met in the 2020 Citrus Bowl, a 35-16 beat down by the Crimson Tide. Michigan has lost six straight bowl games under Harbaugh, including the last two semifinal games against Georgia and TCU. Michigan will be playing in the Rose Bowl for the 21st time, losing the previous three dating back to 2004.
Nick Saban has had a month to prepare, where he excels, going 16-6 in bowls compared to Boogerman;s 2-7 record. Alabama is no stranger to semifinal games, winning six of these matchups in a row, scUM is 0-2.
These two teams are pretty similar. Both love to run the ball and play defense.
scUM will be missing the heart and soud of the OL - Zak Zinter After a tough start to the season, Nick Saban’s team has bounced back behind the play of QB Jalen Milroe. Milroe was benched during the USF game early in the year but rebounded to a sixth-place finish in Heisman voting. Milroe’s play and tough defense got them to the CFP.
Michigan has yet to face a dual-threat quarterback like Milroe. Alabama has a distinct advantage with his ability to move the pocket and throw downfield, something not many Big Ten offenses have. Milroe is lethal on the ground in any situation with 479 yards from scrambles and 214 from designed calls.
Milroe can beat a defense in a handful of ways, from finding wheel routes under pressure to deep passing and inside zone rush attempts.
While Milroe has excelled with the deep ball, he has been awful when it comes to mid-range throws. Georgia played quarters coverage and allowed those areas to be open, forcing Milroe's only turnover-worthy play to come on an attempt between 10 and 19 yards downfield. Milroe would forego downfield throws, electing to run or hit a running back on the wheel route.
Michigan has yet to face a dual-threat quarterback like Milroe. Alabama has a distinct advantage with his ability to move the pocket and throw downfield, something not many Big Ten offenses have. Milroe is lethal on the ground in any situation with 479 yards from scrambles and 214 from designed calls.
Milroe can beat a defense in a handful of ways, from finding wheel routes under pressure to deep passing and inside zone rush attempts.
While Milroe has excelled with the deep ball, he has been awful when it comes to mid-range throws. Georgia played quarters coverage and allowed those areas to be open, forcing Milroe's only turnover-worthy play to come on an attempt between 10 and 19 yards downfield. Milroe would forego downfield throws, electing to run or hit a running back on the wheel route.
Kool-Aid will be a 1st round pick Despite this chink in his game, the Tide rank sixth in pass explosiveness, so they should generate chunk plays and jump out to an early lead.
And the Wolverines aren't built to play from behind, ranking 118th in pass rate. They want to run the ball but come in at just 45th in Rush Success Rate and will be without right guard and captain Zak Zinter.
Zinter was the “soul of the program:” logging nearly every snap at right guard since the 2021 season. Plus, they're facing the nation's 19th-best rush defense.
The good news for the Wolverines is that the Alabama front seven dominates outside zone, a concept rarely used by Michigan. If Michigan can overcome the loss of Zinter on the offensive line, scUM may have some success running. Alabama ranks 103rd in Defensive Stuff Rate.
And the Wolverines aren't built to play from behind, ranking 118th in pass rate. They want to run the ball but come in at just 45th in Rush Success Rate and will be without right guard and captain Zak Zinter.
Zinter was the “soul of the program:” logging nearly every snap at right guard since the 2021 season. Plus, they're facing the nation's 19th-best rush defense.
The good news for the Wolverines is that the Alabama front seven dominates outside zone, a concept rarely used by Michigan. If Michigan can overcome the loss of Zinter on the offensive line, scUM may have some success running. Alabama ranks 103rd in Defensive Stuff Rate.
As will Terrion Arnold Michigan passing attack all but vaporized over the final month of the season, as quarterback JJ McCarthy failed to crack 150 passing yards over the final four games. Michigan's receivers should have a tough time against the elite cornerback duo of Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold. They are the best lockdown duo at corner in the country and both are projected to be first-round picks in April’s NFL Draft.
Keep an eye on is Michigan slot Roman Wilson, who has hauled in 11 touchdowns this season. Of all the pass routes faced by Alabama's elite secondary, the Crimson Tide have been most vulnerable against the slant.
I’ll take Bama and on the money line at +105 for a Mega Bet.
Im going to take the over 45.0 too for a quatloo. Michigan must change up the offensive playbook and find explosives early. OC Sherron Moore utilized a similar plan in what turned out to be a high-scoring Fiesta Bowl against TCU a year ago.
Milroe’s dual-threat ability will give Michigan’s defense fits, and Bama’s OC Tommy Rees will give the Wolverines some unfamiliar looks that free up Alabama’s playmakers for easy chunk plays.
While both defenses have been stout, neither is in the top 40 in terms of red zone defense. The Rose Bowl turf typically plays fast with eight of the last nine games going over the 50-point total.
Keep an eye on is Michigan slot Roman Wilson, who has hauled in 11 touchdowns this season. Of all the pass routes faced by Alabama's elite secondary, the Crimson Tide have been most vulnerable against the slant.
I’ll take Bama and on the money line at +105 for a Mega Bet.
Im going to take the over 45.0 too for a quatloo. Michigan must change up the offensive playbook and find explosives early. OC Sherron Moore utilized a similar plan in what turned out to be a high-scoring Fiesta Bowl against TCU a year ago.
Milroe’s dual-threat ability will give Michigan’s defense fits, and Bama’s OC Tommy Rees will give the Wolverines some unfamiliar looks that free up Alabama’s playmakers for easy chunk plays.
While both defenses have been stout, neither is in the top 40 in terms of red zone defense. The Rose Bowl turf typically plays fast with eight of the last nine games going over the 50-point total.
Penix loves to go deep off play action Wisconsin +4.0 vs Texas - The most elite passing attack in the nation comes from Seattle, led by super senior QB Michael Penix Jr.
Both Penix and HC Mike DeBoer worked together at Indiana, running an offensive style that took advantage of Big Ten defenses. The Huskies utilize a 58% pass-to-run ratio, often using play-action to set up downfield targets. Penix finished the season with 33 touchdowns, 12 of which came from play-action passing.
Overall, Washington ranks fifth in the country in yards per play, sixth in EPA, first in passing yards per game, and 11th in scoring offense putting up 37.7 points per game.
The passing offense for the Huskies features plenty of future NFL talent at wideout, WR Rome Odunze projects to be a high first-round pick this year and led the Huskies with 1,428 yards and 13 touchdowns. Fellow WT Ja’Lynn Polk contributed another 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns, while Jalen McMillan amassed 468 yards despite missing a large chunk of the season.
Both Penix and HC Mike DeBoer worked together at Indiana, running an offensive style that took advantage of Big Ten defenses. The Huskies utilize a 58% pass-to-run ratio, often using play-action to set up downfield targets. Penix finished the season with 33 touchdowns, 12 of which came from play-action passing.
Overall, Washington ranks fifth in the country in yards per play, sixth in EPA, first in passing yards per game, and 11th in scoring offense putting up 37.7 points per game.
The passing offense for the Huskies features plenty of future NFL talent at wideout, WR Rome Odunze projects to be a high first-round pick this year and led the Huskies with 1,428 yards and 13 touchdowns. Fellow WT Ja’Lynn Polk contributed another 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns, while Jalen McMillan amassed 468 yards despite missing a large chunk of the season.
Can Quinn Ewers keep pace? Texas’ largest weakness on defense is its secondary. The Longhorns rank 31st in Passing Success Rate Allowed but 86th in passing explosiveness allowed. They're just 55th in the country in PFF coverage grade as well.
While Texas is strong in the trenches, the Washington receivers may pose a mismatch for the Longhorns on the back end.
The Longhorns may not have a Heisman finalist at the quarterback position, but Quinn Ewers is one of the few players in the country capable of going tit-for-tat with Penix, and he has a group of receivers just as talented as the stable at Washington.
Texas’ offense may be solid but it isn't on the same level as Washington. Overall, Texas ranks 14th in yards per play, but is a much more balanced offense than Washington, ranking 18th in passing yards per game and 24th in rushing yards per game.
While Texas is strong in the trenches, the Washington receivers may pose a mismatch for the Longhorns on the back end.
The Longhorns may not have a Heisman finalist at the quarterback position, but Quinn Ewers is one of the few players in the country capable of going tit-for-tat with Penix, and he has a group of receivers just as talented as the stable at Washington.
Texas’ offense may be solid but it isn't on the same level as Washington. Overall, Texas ranks 14th in yards per play, but is a much more balanced offense than Washington, ranking 18th in passing yards per game and 24th in rushing yards per game.
Penix has Odunze, Ewers doesn't They pass the ball more than they run and have the 16th-best passing Success Rate but only the 89th-best mark in passing explosiveness.
Texas will be feeling the loss of leading rusher Jonathon Brooks in this matchup. Brooks went for 1,139 yards on the ground this year and was averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry.
Washington’s weakness on the defensive side of the ball is without a doubt its run defense, where it ranks 129th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 125th in Rushing PPA Allowed. Without Brooks, it remains to be seen whether or not Texas can take advantage of this fault.
I’ll take Penix as an underdog with a better offense to cover for a quatloo.
Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
Texas will be feeling the loss of leading rusher Jonathon Brooks in this matchup. Brooks went for 1,139 yards on the ground this year and was averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry.
Washington’s weakness on the defensive side of the ball is without a doubt its run defense, where it ranks 129th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 125th in Rushing PPA Allowed. Without Brooks, it remains to be seen whether or not Texas can take advantage of this fault.
I’ll take Penix as an underdog with a better offense to cover for a quatloo.
Remember, the 2024 Go Jumbo trip is Nov 16th at the Westgate SuperBook
