The Week 9 picks went down in flames
A bad weekend of football for the Doofus.
Michigan State started out the weekend on a sour note getting run out of Lincoln NE with a 24-3 loss stapled to their butts.
The Man Cave Whiskey Swilling Cigar Chomping Football Society didn't have a particularly good week either as MSU, Purdue, Ohio State, USC, UConn, Wake and Rutgers all lost. GT, Auburn, Northwestern, FSU and UNC chalked up wins to keep the weekend from being a total bummer. Army played a Div 1AA so they didn't count (c'mon Dwink - man up - you shouldn't be playing 1AA this late in the year)
The Mega Bets were absolutely terrible to going a perfect 0-4. Every pick started out like crap only to rally. Tough to lay tons of points and start out down 2 touchdowns.
Week 9 Recap:
Arkansas -10.0 @ Vanderbilt - Vandy got up 21-7 late in the first half. Arkansas came back to win 31-28. Vandy missed a chip shot FG at the buzzer which would have sent the game into overtime. LOSS
Baltimore -14.0 vs Arizona - Arizona got up 24-3 late in the second quarter. Baltimore rallied to win 30-27 LOSS
New York G Men -10.5 vs Miami - Miami got up 14-3 midway through the second quarter. Giants rallied to win 20-17 LOSS
New Orleans -14.0 @ St Louis -. St Louis ran out to a 24-0 lead late into the third quarter. This time there was no rally - just a plain old 31-21 LOSS
But all was not lost - as I was in the stands cheering GT on to a 31-17 win over previously unbeaten Clemson. Bobby Dodd stadium was electric as they won another night game over a ranked opponent. I was rooting against Clemson despite the MinMega on the TIgers (better known as a diversification bet) - and I was really coming on strong as the Bees held on late to preserve the under - run that ball!!
Michigan State started out the weekend on a sour note getting run out of Lincoln NE with a 24-3 loss stapled to their butts.
The Man Cave Whiskey Swilling Cigar Chomping Football Society didn't have a particularly good week either as MSU, Purdue, Ohio State, USC, UConn, Wake and Rutgers all lost. GT, Auburn, Northwestern, FSU and UNC chalked up wins to keep the weekend from being a total bummer. Army played a Div 1AA so they didn't count (c'mon Dwink - man up - you shouldn't be playing 1AA this late in the year)
The Mega Bets were absolutely terrible to going a perfect 0-4. Every pick started out like crap only to rally. Tough to lay tons of points and start out down 2 touchdowns.
Week 9 Recap:
Arkansas -10.0 @ Vanderbilt - Vandy got up 21-7 late in the first half. Arkansas came back to win 31-28. Vandy missed a chip shot FG at the buzzer which would have sent the game into overtime. LOSS
Baltimore -14.0 vs Arizona - Arizona got up 24-3 late in the second quarter. Baltimore rallied to win 30-27 LOSS
New York G Men -10.5 vs Miami - Miami got up 14-3 midway through the second quarter. Giants rallied to win 20-17 LOSS
New Orleans -14.0 @ St Louis -. St Louis ran out to a 24-0 lead late into the third quarter. This time there was no rally - just a plain old 31-21 LOSS
But all was not lost - as I was in the stands cheering GT on to a 31-17 win over previously unbeaten Clemson. Bobby Dodd stadium was electric as they won another night game over a ranked opponent. I was rooting against Clemson despite the MinMega on the TIgers (better known as a diversification bet) - and I was really coming on strong as the Bees held on late to preserve the under - run that ball!!
The Sheriff of Malibu had a nice week going 2-0 with:
Houston (-27) over Rice - Final Score - Houston 73 Rice 24 WIN Houston QB Caser Kenum set the Div 1A record for TD passes during the game - WIN Georgia Tech (+4) over Clemson: WIN
All The Big Flippy had to do was pick against the Doofus to get a win which it did twice going 2-2:
Vanderbilt +10.0 vs Arkansas WIN
Arizona +14.0 @ Baltimore WIN
New Orleans -14.0 @ St Louis LOSS
New York Giants -10.5 vs Miami LOSS
The Sax Man continued his winning streak going 2-1 as:
West Freakin' Viriginia -7.0 @ Rutgers - Final WVU 41 Scarlet Letters 31 WIN
Detroit -2.5 @ The Fightin' Timmy Tebows - Final Detroit 45 Tebows 10 WIN.
Dallas +3.5 @ Philadelphia - Final Philadelphia 34 Cheerleaders 7 LOSS - When the Sax Man misses a pick he misses big!
The Big Guy's picks is still cranking out good weeks as he also went 2-1 with:
Michigan State +4.0 @ Nebraska LOSS (don't bet with your heart Big Guy)
Georgia +3.0 @ Florida (Neutral Party Field) - Final - Georgia 24 Wally Gators 20 WIN
Oklahoma -13.5 @ Kansas State - Final - Oklahoma 58 Bill Snyder redux 17 WIN
Houston (-27) over Rice - Final Score - Houston 73 Rice 24 WIN Houston QB Caser Kenum set the Div 1A record for TD passes during the game - WIN Georgia Tech (+4) over Clemson: WIN
All The Big Flippy had to do was pick against the Doofus to get a win which it did twice going 2-2:
Vanderbilt +10.0 vs Arkansas WIN
Arizona +14.0 @ Baltimore WIN
New Orleans -14.0 @ St Louis LOSS
New York Giants -10.5 vs Miami LOSS
The Sax Man continued his winning streak going 2-1 as:
West Freakin' Viriginia -7.0 @ Rutgers - Final WVU 41 Scarlet Letters 31 WIN
Detroit -2.5 @ The Fightin' Timmy Tebows - Final Detroit 45 Tebows 10 WIN.
Dallas +3.5 @ Philadelphia - Final Philadelphia 34 Cheerleaders 7 LOSS - When the Sax Man misses a pick he misses big!
The Big Guy's picks is still cranking out good weeks as he also went 2-1 with:
Michigan State +4.0 @ Nebraska LOSS (don't bet with your heart Big Guy)
Georgia +3.0 @ Florida (Neutral Party Field) - Final - Georgia 24 Wally Gators 20 WIN
Oklahoma -13.5 @ Kansas State - Final - Oklahoma 58 Bill Snyder redux 17 WIN
The Bride of Doofus let me know what she thought of my picks
With 1 week to go before the picks really count - It's time to take deeper dive into the Big Book of Guesses picks
First off - the College picks have been a big bucket of warm piss. So far this year the record is 196-235-7. And it has gotten worse as the weeks have gone on. The last 4 weeks the record is 80-121-5. The Mega Bets on DIv 1A has been just as bad going 8-13-1 including 3-7-0 over the last 4 weeks. The Drunken Bums will be fading my picks next week!
The NFL picks are better but not exactly setting the world on fire going 50-47-3. The Mega Bets are 6-6-0. They were 6-3-0 before last weeks blow out. Hopefully it's not a trend as I may need Sundays to save the weekend.
And, for whatever reason, I have been picking pretty damn good on the Over Unders. So far this year they are 29-18-1 (including 22-12-1 over the last month) There have been no Mega Bets on the over unders but there were two Mini Megas that went 2-0.
In fact, last week I won on an Over Under Parlay with:
Clemson @ Georgia Tech - under 63.5 - Final - GT 31 Clemson 17 WIN
Texas @ Kansas - under 64.0 - Final - Texas 43 Kansas 0 WIN
South Carolina @ Tennessee - under 43.5 - Final - South Carolina 14 Tennessee 3 WIN
With that in mind I will go with some Mega Bets on the Over/Unders this week. Fair Warning - I was winning with NFL Mega Bets until I decided to overload on them last week. The Uncertainty Principle Doofus Corollary may come into play as the mere fact that I pick them will change the outcome.
Week 10 Mega Bets:
Toledo +7.5 vs Northern Illinois - And the College streak continues. Northern Illinois took the opening kickoff to the house. But Toledo rallied and drove for a tying TD. Then Northern Illinois takes the next KO to the house. Groooan. This losing streak is getting downright comical. Northern Illinois won 63-60
Wisconsin -25.5 vs Purdue - Wisconsin has lost 2 on the road on last second TD bombs. The Badgers travel about as good as Clark Griswold. In fact the last time the beat a good team on the road (a team with less than 4 losses on the year) was 1995! But at home and needing to end this nasty streak they will pound the Boilers.
Cincinnati -3.0 @ Pitt - The Panthers lost their star RB Ray Graham last week. The Bearcats will be able to focus on stopping the erratic Pitt QB Tino Sunseri. Cincinnati is also rolling on offense leading the Big East in scoring. In a key game to determine the Big Least's champ - Cincy will roll
Green Bay -5.5 @ San Diego - San Diego has been overrated for a long time. And something is just not right with Charger QB Phillip Rivers. His throws are sailing and missing open receivers. Green Bay is the best complete team in the NFL right now. I'll take the Pack to win by more than a TD
LSU @ Alabama Under 41.5 - This years Game of the Century showcases two very similar teams. Both Bama and LSU like to play conservative on offense and have outstanding defenses. That bodes well for an under. Put on top the tension from playing in a huge game should keep the points low.
MiniMegas - Games not ready to be full Mega Bets:
South Florida @ Rutgers under 49.0 - Rutgers is solid on defense but horrible on offense. South Florida is struggling overall. The Bulls really struggle outside of Florida. Should be a low scoring affair.
Northwestern @ Nebraska under 63.5 - Northwestern likes to pass but Nebraska is stout against the pass. Nebraska meanwhile struggles to pass and will go to the ground game. The combination will keep the point total down.
Indiana @ Ohio State under 52.0 - Indiana just kicked off the team their one play maker WR Demarlo Belcher. The Hoosiers may not get a single point against the Buckeyes. Ohio State can't throw a lick but can run the ball. I doubt OSU will score 52 though.
North Carolina -3.5 @ NC State - North Carolina can't lose 5 in a row against their little brothers! C'mon Ellis - your team is better than the PuppyPack aren't they? NC State is really struggling this year. The Heels take advantage and win this game - finally.
Cincinnati +2.5 @ Tennessee - Cedric Benson is back after a one game suspension and should rip through the Titans. Cincinnati is the better team as Tennessee RB Chris Johnson has been terrible this year. He is sharing time with former Spartan Javon Ringer. Unless Cincy is looking ahead to games with Pittsburgh and Baltimore they should take this game easily. Forget the points and go with the money line at +125
For the Over Under Parlay I'll take:
Syracuse @ UConn under 44.5
Akron @ Miami (OH) over 47.5
Chicago @ Philadelphia under 47.0
For the Point Whore Parlay I'll go with:
Texas Tech +14.5 @ Texas
Louisville +13.5 @ West Virginia
New Mexico State +33.0 @ Georgia
The Sheriff of Malibu fresh off a nice week likes:
Arizona St (-10) over UCLA: UCLA is a second-tier PAC-12 team with delusions of grandeur. The Sun Devils will beat them like dogs and cover the number.
Arkansas (-4) over South Carolina: The Hogs haven't played well the last two weeks against Ole Miss or Vandy, but they will get up for this game at home and beat the Gamecocks.
The Sax Man looks to continue his winning streak with:
Wisconsin (-25) over Purdue: A pissed off Wiscy team against a terrible Purdue team? Easy Pickings.
Buffalo (-1) over NY Jets: Big game here. I like Fitzy's Bills at home over a terrible J-E-T-S team on the road.
Atlanta (-7) over Indianapolis: Classic Jinx pick here, but I feel like the Falcons have turned the corner this year. They really don't want to be the first one to lose to the Colts.
I thought about taking the Falcons too but it smells a lot like a trap game. Hope you are right Sax Man
The Big Guy will have his picks tomorrow - stay tuned!
I'll also send out the Big Flippy picks when I get them
And here is the Week 10 Bettors Guide
First off - the College picks have been a big bucket of warm piss. So far this year the record is 196-235-7. And it has gotten worse as the weeks have gone on. The last 4 weeks the record is 80-121-5. The Mega Bets on DIv 1A has been just as bad going 8-13-1 including 3-7-0 over the last 4 weeks. The Drunken Bums will be fading my picks next week!
The NFL picks are better but not exactly setting the world on fire going 50-47-3. The Mega Bets are 6-6-0. They were 6-3-0 before last weeks blow out. Hopefully it's not a trend as I may need Sundays to save the weekend.
And, for whatever reason, I have been picking pretty damn good on the Over Unders. So far this year they are 29-18-1 (including 22-12-1 over the last month) There have been no Mega Bets on the over unders but there were two Mini Megas that went 2-0.
In fact, last week I won on an Over Under Parlay with:
Clemson @ Georgia Tech - under 63.5 - Final - GT 31 Clemson 17 WIN
Texas @ Kansas - under 64.0 - Final - Texas 43 Kansas 0 WIN
South Carolina @ Tennessee - under 43.5 - Final - South Carolina 14 Tennessee 3 WIN
With that in mind I will go with some Mega Bets on the Over/Unders this week. Fair Warning - I was winning with NFL Mega Bets until I decided to overload on them last week. The Uncertainty Principle Doofus Corollary may come into play as the mere fact that I pick them will change the outcome.
Week 10 Mega Bets:
Toledo +7.5 vs Northern Illinois - And the College streak continues. Northern Illinois took the opening kickoff to the house. But Toledo rallied and drove for a tying TD. Then Northern Illinois takes the next KO to the house. Groooan. This losing streak is getting downright comical. Northern Illinois won 63-60
Wisconsin -25.5 vs Purdue - Wisconsin has lost 2 on the road on last second TD bombs. The Badgers travel about as good as Clark Griswold. In fact the last time the beat a good team on the road (a team with less than 4 losses on the year) was 1995! But at home and needing to end this nasty streak they will pound the Boilers.
Cincinnati -3.0 @ Pitt - The Panthers lost their star RB Ray Graham last week. The Bearcats will be able to focus on stopping the erratic Pitt QB Tino Sunseri. Cincinnati is also rolling on offense leading the Big East in scoring. In a key game to determine the Big Least's champ - Cincy will roll
Green Bay -5.5 @ San Diego - San Diego has been overrated for a long time. And something is just not right with Charger QB Phillip Rivers. His throws are sailing and missing open receivers. Green Bay is the best complete team in the NFL right now. I'll take the Pack to win by more than a TD
LSU @ Alabama Under 41.5 - This years Game of the Century showcases two very similar teams. Both Bama and LSU like to play conservative on offense and have outstanding defenses. That bodes well for an under. Put on top the tension from playing in a huge game should keep the points low.
MiniMegas - Games not ready to be full Mega Bets:
South Florida @ Rutgers under 49.0 - Rutgers is solid on defense but horrible on offense. South Florida is struggling overall. The Bulls really struggle outside of Florida. Should be a low scoring affair.
Northwestern @ Nebraska under 63.5 - Northwestern likes to pass but Nebraska is stout against the pass. Nebraska meanwhile struggles to pass and will go to the ground game. The combination will keep the point total down.
Indiana @ Ohio State under 52.0 - Indiana just kicked off the team their one play maker WR Demarlo Belcher. The Hoosiers may not get a single point against the Buckeyes. Ohio State can't throw a lick but can run the ball. I doubt OSU will score 52 though.
North Carolina -3.5 @ NC State - North Carolina can't lose 5 in a row against their little brothers! C'mon Ellis - your team is better than the PuppyPack aren't they? NC State is really struggling this year. The Heels take advantage and win this game - finally.
Cincinnati +2.5 @ Tennessee - Cedric Benson is back after a one game suspension and should rip through the Titans. Cincinnati is the better team as Tennessee RB Chris Johnson has been terrible this year. He is sharing time with former Spartan Javon Ringer. Unless Cincy is looking ahead to games with Pittsburgh and Baltimore they should take this game easily. Forget the points and go with the money line at +125
For the Over Under Parlay I'll take:
Syracuse @ UConn under 44.5
Akron @ Miami (OH) over 47.5
Chicago @ Philadelphia under 47.0
For the Point Whore Parlay I'll go with:
Texas Tech +14.5 @ Texas
Louisville +13.5 @ West Virginia
New Mexico State +33.0 @ Georgia
The Sheriff of Malibu fresh off a nice week likes:
Arizona St (-10) over UCLA: UCLA is a second-tier PAC-12 team with delusions of grandeur. The Sun Devils will beat them like dogs and cover the number.
Arkansas (-4) over South Carolina: The Hogs haven't played well the last two weeks against Ole Miss or Vandy, but they will get up for this game at home and beat the Gamecocks.
The Sax Man looks to continue his winning streak with:
Wisconsin (-25) over Purdue: A pissed off Wiscy team against a terrible Purdue team? Easy Pickings.
Buffalo (-1) over NY Jets: Big game here. I like Fitzy's Bills at home over a terrible J-E-T-S team on the road.
Atlanta (-7) over Indianapolis: Classic Jinx pick here, but I feel like the Falcons have turned the corner this year. They really don't want to be the first one to lose to the Colts.
I thought about taking the Falcons too but it smells a lot like a trap game. Hope you are right Sax Man
The Big Guy will have his picks tomorrow - stay tuned!
I'll also send out the Big Flippy picks when I get them
And here is the Week 10 Bettors Guide
| Week 10 Bettors Guide.xls |
Next week is Vegas Baby
GO JUMBO!!
GO JUMBO!!
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