<![CDATA[The Big Book of Guesses - Previous MEGA BETS]]>

<![CDATA[The Big Book of Guesses - Previous MEGA BETS]]>Sat, 08 Aug 2026 08:38:26 -0400Weebly<![CDATA[Week 6 - 2 Weeks to Vegas Baby!!]]>Fri, 12 Oct 2012 03:32:53 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/week-6-2-weeks-to-vegas-baby

The Doofus was feeling pretty good on Saturday

Only two weeks to Vegas Baby!!

The Doofus ordered a bunch of cigars on line to stock up for the weekend. Unfortunately, I was travelling so the cigars got home before I did. Mrs. Doofus opened up the package and I got my annual admonition about health, money and the stench. Seems as though the cigar stench is worse than my every day stench. Who knew?

The Doofus had some real mixed results last weekend. On Saturday, The Big Book of Guesses sent up some pretty good picks going 28-22-1 and the Doofus took it home - going 2-0 with:

Mizzou 21 Central Florida 16 – I figured this would be a defensive slug fest and it was. UCF was leading 10-7 when Missouri broke the game open midway through the 3rd quarter with a 66 punt return for a TD. Nice. Another TD in the fourth quarter clinched it for the Tigers as they held on to win outright (didn’t need the three points after all). Sometimes Vegas just hands out little presents under the tree. A competent SEC team getting 3 against a CUSA team? Gift. Thank you. WIN

La Tech 44 Virginia 38 – Laying the three points on La Tech looked like it may be in trouble when the Cavaliers took a 24-10 lead midway through the 2nd quarter. But then the Bulldogs went off – scoring 34 straight points to take a 44-24 lead. Virginia tried to get a back door cover by scoring 2 TDs late but it wasn’t enough. The Bulldogs continue to rack up the points. The 44 points for La Tech is their lowest output on the season. La Tech QB Colby Cameron now has 12 TD passes with no interceptions. Keep an eye on the Bulldogs for the GO JUMBO weekend. They host an awful Idaho team - should be a blow out. WIN

What the F@#$ was I thinking with the NFL??

On Sunday, the Doofus was getting ready to celebrate a pretty good weekend and the Big Book of Guesses was on fire going 9-5-1 but I forgot an important lesson in the NFL. Only elite teams can lay 7 or more points and get away with it. There is way too much parity and points are precious. There are only 2 elite teams in the NFL right now – San Francisco and Houston. I’ll be sure to wager some nice coin on those two to go to the Super Bowl. What the F@#$ was I thinking with my NFL picks?? With only 5 losing picks – the Doofus somehow managed to take two of them for Mega Bets as:

Atlanta 30 Carolina 28 – The Falcons certainly looked like an elite team after four weeks. Matt Ryan is an early candidate for MVP. The defense looked like a change in DCs might have been just the ticket as they confused and stymied the likes of Peyton Mannng. But Carolina exposed the holes in the defense – particularly in the DL. Panther QB Cam Newton kept plays alive passing for 215 yards and 2 TDs and running for an additional 86 yards. Now the story will be that Cam is back – he is not. Be careful taking the Panthers.

The Falcons needed a Hail Mary Pass and a walk off FG just to win the game. Giving 7 with the not quite elite Falcons equals a LOSS

Green Bay 28 New Orleans 27 – I knew Green Bay was not elite but I figured that they would be fired up after getting jobbed by the replacement refs the week before. Well they got jobbed by the regular refs too. New Orleans got away with a blatant offensive interference (ironically a favorite call by the replacement refs) on a first quarter TD to tie it 7-7. The Saints built a 21-14 half time lead but like they have done all season they blew it.

With 7 minutes left Green Bay scored the go ahead TD and led 28-27. On the ensuing kick-off Darrren Sproles fumbled the ball but the refs goofed again and ruled him down by contact. Replay showed he clearly fumbled but Green Bay had used their challenge (stupidly I might add) and so the play stood. And with it went my chance to get a cover. LOSS

Well – if going 2-2 is a down weekend I guess things aren’t that bad.

The Big Flippy went 2-2 also with:

Green Bay - Loss
Carolina – Win
Central Florida - Loss
La Tech – Win

The Point Whore Parlay had only its second losing week going 1-2 with:

UNLV +20.5 @ Utah State – Final Utah State 35 UNLV 13 LOSS (this one was looking pretty good until USU reeled off 15 unanswered in the 4th quarter - including a safety. Are you kidding me I lost it with a safety?? Crap!)
Colorado State +14.0 vs Air Force – Final – Air Force 42 Colorado State 21 LOSS
Buffalo +16.0 @ UConn – Final UConn 24 Buffalo 17 WIN

That brings the Point Whore Parlay record to 10-5. Should have used some of those for the Mega Bets. But wagering Mega Bets on massive underdogs takes Edgerrin James size cajones. The Doofus imagines his to be average or as George Costanza says - “Shrinkage!!”

With only two more preseason weeks here are the

Week 6 Mega Bets

Kent State -3.0 @ Eastern Michigan – Last year, it appeared that former Michigan DC and current Eastern HC Ron English had finally turned the tide for the woeful Eagles. This year things are back to normal. Eastern is about as good as milk left on the kitchen counter for a week. They are 117th in rushing, 100th in passing, 118th in scoring and 108th in scoring defense. Doesn’t get much worse than that. And their record shows it going 0-4 including two losses in the MAC and a loss to 1AA Illinois State. Meanwhile Kent State has gone 3-1 including two wins in the MAC and a win over the same Towson team that hung tough with LSU. A middle of the road MAC team goes to a pathetic MAC team - I’ll give the 3.

Seattle +3.0 @ Carolina – This spread is an overreaction to last week’s games. Carolina almost upset the Falcons in the Georgia Dome while Seattle fluffed at St Louis. I like spreads like this. Seattle is clearly a better team with a great defense. Cam while look ordinary again as will the running game which gashed Atlanta for 199 yards. The better team getting points? I’ll take it.

Pittsburgh -3.5 vs Philadelphia – Michael Vick looked great against New York running for 49 yards and passing for 241. He looked good because the Giants overpursued letting Vick scramble keeping plays alive. The Steelers are coming off a bye and get James Harrison and Troy Polamalu back. Just in time. Well rested – the Steeler D will make Vick look like he did at the beginning of the season.

For the Point Whore Parlay I’ll take:

New Mexico State +9.5 @ Idaho
UNLV +27.0 @ La Tech
Washington St +15.0 @ Oregon State

And here are all the picks and the Week 6 Bettors Guide Week 6 Bettors Guide.xls

Week 6 Bettors Guide.xls
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Download File

GO JUMBO in 2 weeks - October 20th at the LVH!!

]]><![CDATA[Week 5 Mega Bets]]>Thu, 27 Sep 2012 14:32:43 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/week-5-mega-bets1

The Intercompletion

Oh Man, those NFL replacement refs suck! They have been missing calls but in week 3 they took it to another level. They finally cost a team a game. And not just any team but the Packers on Monday night football.

I’ve seen estimates that as much as $150 million to $1 billion changed hands (mainly from bettors to the casinos) as a result of the last play of the Packers Seahawks game. To recap, Green Bay led Seattle 12-7 (the Pack was covering the 3.5 spread) when Seattle throws up a Hail Mary pass. The ball makes it to the end zone and then the chaos ensued.

A pile of Packers and Seahawks jump for the ball but Green Bay DB Jennings appeared to have intercepted the ball – grabbing it as Seattle WR Golden Tate (a Domer no less) gets a hand on it. One ref ruled that Tate had joint possession and a TD while another ruled it incomplete. The play went to the replay ref. A full 10 minutes! goes by while the refs review it. And then they still blow the call – ruling it a Seattle TD. Totally blown call

My Favorite Relacement Ref

And while that call may be the most infamous there were others. In the Baltimore New England game it seemed like every other play was a penalty – either offensive pass interference, defensive holding, defensive illegal contact – every call in the book. In fact, a record 13 first downs were the result of penalties. The fans were not happy Loudest Manure Chant . Watching the game I thought My Favorite Martian was reffing the game

In the Detroit Tennessee game – the outcome may not have been a direct result of a blown call but it may have had a strong influence. In overtime, Tennessee threw an incomplete pass from their own 44 yard line but a penalty for an illegal hit was also called. Replay showed the pass was incomplete but the penalty was mistakenly marked off from the Detroit 44 yard line – giving the Titans an extra 12 yards. The Titans went on to kick a winning FG.

Mercifully, late Wednesday the NFL and the refs union reached a deal - sending those Lingerie League castoffs back to the local Footlocker where they came from.

In the college ranks there was a little bit of lunacy too. Just when you thought John L “Slappy” “Smiles” Smith was done making a fool of himself he does this. Remember – he coaches Arkansas What State? Alabama?? There a lot of Hog fans who wished he coached Alabama. John L was brought in as a one year stop gap – but he may not even make through the year. Guy has totally lost it. And despite all the tom foolery in the pro and college ranks – the Big Book of Guesses had its first winning week of the season going 35-31-2 - and the Doofus had his third straight winning week going 2-1 yet again as:

The Doofs was pretty pleased with Week 4

Utah State 31 Colorado State 19 – USU ran all over Colorado State. Midway through the fourth quarter the Aggies had built a 31-12. The Doofus was feeling pretty good about the outcome until the Rams final drive of the game. With 1:43 left CSU scored a meaningless TD to get within 12 points - Damn! Spread was 12.5 points - done in by the hook and a back door cover! LOSS

Notre Dame 13 Michigan 6 – As predicted, Notre Dames defense contained Shoelaces forcing him to throw. And when he did it was a total disaster. Robinson threw 4 interceptions and lost one fumble. He was pathetic. Pat send along this great recap of the Wolverine performance scUM. The Domers beat the 5 point spread for a WIN

Chicago 23 St Louis 6 – The Bear D carried the day as Jay Cutler continues to suck. A Bear pick 6 midway through the 4th quarter sealed the deal. Chicago easily covered the 7 point spread WIN

And for the second time in three weeks there was a point whore parlay win!!

UNLV +10.5 vs Air Force – Final UNLV 38 Air Force 35 WIN
Akron +32.5 @ Tennessee – Final Tennessee 47 Akron 26 WIN
UAB +36.5 @ Ohio State – Final Ohio State 29 UAB 15 WIN

If it weren’t for the stupid back door hook loss on Utah State the Doofus would have went 6-0. That’s all right – still feeling pretty good about last week. Let’s hope the good picking continues through the GO JUMBO weekend!

For the year the Mega Bets are 7-5 and the Point Whore Parlay is 9-3. Nice.

The Big Flippy sent in his second string by having Big Flippy Jr. make the picks last week. Jr. had about the same luck as his old man. He took Utah State LOSS, the team playing Notre Dame (he refused to say the name publicly) LOSS and St Louis LOSS. The Big Floppy is now 1-8 on the year. Fade the Floppy!

The season is now getting into gear – time to start ramping up the picks. This week the Doofus will make four picks - going with:

Week 5 Mega Bets

Green Bay -7.5 vs New Orleans – The Saints are just a mess right now. They start out games hot and then when the other team makes a few in game adjustments – they melt down. Last week ,New Orleans was up 24-6 in the third quarter only to lose to an equally inept Kansas City 27-24. Now the Saints travel up to the not yet frozen tundra to take on a seething Green Bay. The Pack was jobbed last week and they will be pissed. After facing three of the best defenses in the league in Frisco, Da Bears and Seattle – the Saints pathetic defense will seem like a MAC school. Aaron Rodgers is going to make a lot of fantasy owners very happy.

Atlanta -7.0 vs Carolina – Cam Newton is a basket case. He’s reportedly seeing the team shrink. Looking ahead to facing the offbeat schemes the Falcons have been using lately can’t help his psyche. The Falcons were able to confuse Peyton Manning – they will send Cam into a rubber room. Meanwhile Matt Ryan has been torching every defense he’s faced this year. Carolina’s 24th ranked D will be no match for the Ryan Air attack.

Missouri +2.5 @ Central Florida – A middle of the pack SEC team goes on the road to face a good but not great CUSA team and gets points? Gotta take a look at that. Mizzou battled 5th ranked Georgia before melting down in the fourth quarter; beat a respectable Arizona State team then stumbled against 6th ranked South Carolina. What’s Central Florida’s signature win? Beating Akron? Florida International? Hanging tough against Ohio State? Bettors are overreacting the the Mizzou SEC losses and overrating Central Florida. I like UCF – when they are getting points - not as a favorite.

La Tech -3.0 @ Virginia - La Tech is an offensive dynamo this year. Their lowest scoring output so far? – 52 points against Illinois. Virginia started out with a win over Penn State but that just seems less impressive now. Since then they have been blasted by Ga Tech and TCU. Virginia’s offense will get back on track this week but won’t be able to keep up with the Bulldogs

And for the Point Whore Parlay I’ll take:

UNLV +20.5 @ Utah State
Colorado State +14.0 vs Air Force
Buffalo +16.0 @ UConn

The Big Flippy refused to fade - the great quarter predicts the following victories:
Green Bay
Carolina
Central Florida
La Tech

As the Great Flippy says - remember, when you flip, you either get head, or tail. What can be better than that?

And as always - here is the Week 5 Bettors Guide Week 5 Bettors Guide.xls

Week 5 Bettors Guide.xls
File Size:	225 kb
File Type:	xls

Download File

GO JUMBO October 20th at the LVH Hotel

]]><![CDATA[Week 4 Mega Bets]]>Fri, 21 Sep 2012 03:37:56 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/week-4-mega-bets1

The Irish fans were dancing last week

Ooooof – that hurt. Notre Dame went all Archie Bunker on MSU as they stifled Sparty 20-3. And just like that the Big Ten is out of the National Championship hunt.

Southern Cal also stepped on their organ of regeneration with a loss to Stanford leaving only a handful of teams have a realistic shot at the MNC. The winner of Clemson / Florida State could go from the ACC, Oklahoma has a shot but needs a statement win (Texas – maybe) and perhaps Notre Dame if they clear the table. Oregon also has a chance but we seen what the Quack attack does against the SEC in back to back losses to Auburn and LSU.

In reality, if LSU and Bama stay unbeaten – other than the loss in their head to head – it looks like we are headed to a rematch. That would make for the two teams playing each other 4 times in two years. Not sure if that has ever happened before.

And John L “Slappy” Smith added another classic goofy moment with the "SMILE"

The Big Book of Guesses had another lousy week going 30-41-3. But the Doofus was smiling as he continued his winning ways - going 2-1 with the Mega Bets as:

The Wildcat strut

Northwestern 22 Boston College 13 – The Wildcats were moving the ball but only getting field goals. With 3 minutes left in the game, Northwestern led 15 to 13 when they downed a punt at the BC 1 yard line. BC went 3 and out punting the ball back to NU at the BC 44. Four plays later the Cats were in the end zone for the clinching score and the 3.5 point cover. Whew, a little too close for comfort but I’ll take the WIN

Best part is I get to see Bruce do his awkward old bald guy Wildcat strut for another week. Go Cats! 3-0 baby!

Utah 24 BYU 21 – This was a wild game. After three quarters Utah led 24-7 and I figured taking BYU and giving 4 was down the porcelain throne. But BYU rallied with two fourth quarter TDs to get within three. Then the fun really kicked in.

BYU drove to the Utah 34 yard line with seconds remaining in the game. A third down pass was incomplete and it looked like time had run out. Nuts. But the refs ruled there was one second left. All right baby! Kick a 51 yd FG and maybe we can get the cover in OT. Damn - the FG was blocked. Wait a minute – what’s this? - penalty on Utah!! The fans had run on the field too early and the Utes were assessed a 15 yd unsportsmanlike. Holy crap Batman! Now it’s only a 36 yarder to go into OT. So what does the BYU kicker do? – doinks it off the left upright. Game over LOSS

Philadelphia 24 Baltimore 23 – Philly continues to win despite Michael Vick. He threw two more INTs on Sunday making it six so far this year. Midway through the 4th quarter, Baltimore went on a nice 5 minute drive kicking a FG to go up 23-17 with 4:43 left.

I was feeling pretty good since even if Philly got a TD they would still only lead by one with little time left. Baltimore would either then get the ball back, score win and cover or Philly would get the ball back and go into a victory formation still leaving me with a Baltimore +2.5 cover. Sure enough Vick leads the Eagle on a nice drive and gets the go ahead TD. Baltimore stalled at their 46 and Philly sits on it to win.

As bad as Vick was Flacco was worse. Chowderhead Joe couldn’t hit an open receiver and kept throwing into tight coverage. Only difference was Philly didn’t pick him off. If Flacco was even half way accurate this would have been a blow out WIN

The Big Flippy had a much better week as it also went 2-1 with wins on Northwestern, Utah and taking a loss on Philly.

The Point Whore Parlay went 1-2 as:

Wake Forest +28.0 @ Florida State – Final Score FSU 52 WtF 0. WtF Rock? He was chirping all week about how his Deacs beating up on Ellis’ Tar Heels. That was just plain awful. I don’t know why I listen to these guys. No more picking FPC teams (except Bruce’s Cats of course) LOSS
North Texas +28 @ Kansas State – Final Score KSU 35 Mean Green 21 WIN
UL Lafayette +22.5 @ Oklahoma State – Final Score OSU 65 ULL 24 LOSS

Week 4 started out with the first bar bet loss this year. I’m down a tall IPA beer after taking Buffalo -3.5. Bulls lost 23-7 and the wallet was a little lighter.

Hopefully the rest of the week will play out better. This week I’ll go with

Week 4 Mega Bets:

Utah State -12.5 @ Colorado State – Colorado State is a mess. After an opening week win over an even worse Colorado team, the Rams have lost to 1AA North Dakota St and perennial bottom dweller San Jose State. Meanwhile Utah State has beaten arch rival PAC 12 Utah and was a missed FG from beating Wisconsin in Camp Randall. The Aggies actually outgained the Badgers 308 yds to 234. USU runs a spread offense which will run all over a pathetic Ram defense. That said, a spread of 10-15 has always been a trouble spot for the Doofus. Seems as though giving points in that range has led to a lot of losses for some reason. But I think the Aggies are up to it.

Notre Dame -5.0 vs Michigan – ND’s defense is not as good as Alabama’s but is very similar. The Irish have a solid front seven. The game plan will be the same – contain Shoelace and make him throw. On offense, the Irish will pound away and avoid mistakes - then pounce on short field opportunities when Denard screws up. Normally, I would avoid the Irish in this situation – coming off a huge win against State. And as the Big Guy said – it seems as though when ND beats State they lose to Michigan and vice versa.

But this year, (and it’s a good thing I had a banana for breakfast cause it’s coming back up when I say this), the Irish are good enough to beat Michigan and MSU in the same year. And if they do they will be 3-0 in the Big Ten (and there comes the chili cheese waffle fries from last night – Mark you owe me big time!)

The Irish are going to be fired up, at home, after the loss last year in AA. ND rumbles Saturday night.

Chicago -7.0 vs St Louis – Bettors have overreacted to Chicago’s bumbling in Lambeau last week. Sure – Bear diva QB Jay Cutler started his usual moping when things went south against the Pack. And there is turmoil and the locker room already. But that’s the Bears for you. Preseason, this spread was 10 plus points now it’s down to seven. Cutler will have time to throw this week which can’t be said about Ram QB Sam Bradford. He will be having nightmares about Julius Peppers and the rest of the Bear D.

Chicago will have had 10 days to stew over the loss to Green Bay. Backed by a rowdy crowd at Soldier Field, Da Bears will come out and take their anger out on an outmanned St Louis squad.

For the Point Whore Parlay I’ll take:
UNLV +10.5 vs Air Force
Akron +32.5 @ Tennessee
UAB +36.5 @ Ohio State

And as always here is the Week 4 Bettors Guide

Week 4 Bettors Guide.xls
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File Type:	xls

Download File

GO JUMBO Oct 20th at the LVH hotel

]]><![CDATA[Week 3 Mega Bets]]>Wed, 12 Sep 2012 22:30:26 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/week-3-mega-bets1

The Big Ten exposed their BVDs last week

The Big Ten embarrassed themselves last weekend. If week 1 was going around with your fly unzipped at your wife’s euchre party – then week two – while short of a full pantsing – people could sure tell what brand of underwear you had on. Some of the not so great moments included:

Penn State’s kicker missed not one, nor two field goals but 4 including the potential game winner with one second left. His missed extra point proved to be the margin of victory in a 17-16 loss to Virginia.

Iowa QB James Vandenberg threw his second pick of the game with 1:11 left to seal the defeat against Iowa State in an ugly 9-6 loss.

Notre Dame kicked a FG with 7 seconds left to beat Purdue.

Nebraska was run over – letting up 653 yards in a 36-30 loss to UCLA. Andy was high on UCLA – figuring that they would easily cover the 6.5 season win total. His prediction is looking pretty good right now.

A bigger embarrassment was Wisconsin. After a way too close win over Northern Iowa in week 1, Bucky was expected to come out fired up and run the ball down a struggling Oregon State team. But for some unknown reason, Wisky HC Bret Beilema decided that the best way to beat the Beavers was through the air rather than with star running back Monte Ball. Wisconsin ran for on 35 yards and didn’t score until 1:31 left in the game in a pathetic 10-7 loss to Oregon State. After the game Bielema decided that the fault lay – not with the game plan - but with new OL coach Mark Markuson. “We decided to move on,” Bielema said “It was really something that wasn’t a knee-jerk thing by me.” 2 weeks into the season and it’s not a knee-jerk thing? Take out the knee and you have Bielema.

But the biggest embarrassment was not in the Big Ten but by a former Big Ten head coach down in the SEC. Arkansas HC John L "Slappy" Smith The Slap officially filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy on Thurday and then led his 8th ranked Hog squad to a 34-31 loss to UL Monroe. With the loss, Arkansas dropped out of the rankings. It was the biggest drop in the polls since scUM lost to App State. That game just keeps on giving!

With Michigan State putting a workman like 41-7 beat down on Central Michigan - it’s starting to look like the Big 10 is Big 1 Little 11. MSU’s defense held Central scoreless (their lone TD was a pick 6 with 1:39 left in the game). MSU’s defense has not let up a TD all year. That will be tested with Notre Dame coming to East Lansing Saturday night.

And the Big Book of Guesses was showing their Fruit of the Loom tag too going 28-38 in week 2 including a dismal 5-11 in the NFL. But it’s not how you pick ‘em – it’s how you bet ‘em that really matters. And the BBofG did much better there going 2-1 on the Mega Bets as:

Tannehill sucked against the Texans

Wake Forest 28 North Carolina 27 – Kick off was delayed 75 minutes due to a lightning storm sending the fans to their cars and teams to the locker rooms. After the delay, apparently Wake Forest came out of their lockers but not NC. Wake Forest QB Tanner Price had a field day against the Tar Heel secondary throwing for 362 yards and 1 TD. Down 27-21, starting on his own 7 yd line and with 6:36 left, Price calmly led his Deacons on a 4 minute game winning TD drive. NC tried to rally but QB Bryn Renner threw a pick from his own 17 yard line. In a tight back and forth game - North Carolina never threatened to get the 10 point cover. LOSS

And while the loss will go on my permanent record I put the blame squarely on ELLIS! No more of the good whiskey for you. Next time you come over I giving you the cheap blended scotch that’s taking up space in my liquor cabinet. Another game like that for the Heels and they will be soon talking about the upcoming season on the hardwood. Then again, Ellis never stops talking about the Heels and the hardwood.

La Tech 56 Div 1A Houston 49 – Both teams came out throwing the ball all over the field. Houston QB set a Cougar record for passes attempted at 77 beating out such gun slingers as Andre Ware, David Klinger and Case Keenum. La Tech got up 14-0 after their first two drives and were up 56-35 with six minutes left in the game. Houston attempted a furious rally trying to screw me with a back door cover. But after scoring a TD with 35 seconds left the Cougar onside kick failed when they touched the ball before it had traveled 10 yds. La Tech escaped with the cover after giving 3.5 points WIN

Tannehill sucked in Week 1 NFL Houston 30 Miami 10 – Miami started the season out nicely and was leading by a score of 3-0 with 6 minutes left in the first half - and then they had a complete melt down. After Houston tied it a 3-3 (getting the ball by picking off Miami QB Ryan Tannehill) Miami’s next three plays (not drives – plays) were interception, interception and lost fumble. Houston pounced for three TDs off the miscues jumping to a 24-3 half time lead. Miami get a TD off a punt return to start the second half but that was it for the hapless Fins. Houston easily covered the 12 point spread WIN

And the Doofus also got a Point Whore Parlay win with:

Central Florida +18.0 @ Ohio State – Final score OSU 31 UCF 16 WIN
Purdue +14 @ Notre Dame- With Mark in attendance - Final score ND 20 Purdue 17 WIN
Air Force +21 @ Michigan – Final score scUM 31 Air Force 17 WIN

That makes the BBofG 5-1 on point Whore Parlay games – nice.

Conversely, The Big Flippy started out the season with a perfect 0-3 with losses on North Carolina (Don’t worry Mike – it’s Ellis’ fault), Houston Cougars and Miami Fins. Keep those picks coming!

Some late breaking news as the ACC continues to dilute its basketball brand in order to shore up football by allowing Notre Dame in the conference for all sports but football. Make sense to you? Yeah, me neither. ND has agreed to play 5 ACC games a year and access to its bowl tie-ins unless it makes the BCS bowl. Sounds like the ACC got played. Upside for the conference is when they renegotiate their TV contract they will have plenty of ND games to show and the additional gate when the Irish come to town. Also, it may tamp down potential defections by Florida State or Va Tech. As for speculation that it may be a glide path for ND to join the ACC in football – if ND becomes a power again then they stay independent or join a power conference. If they continue to slide – who cares. The ACC gets your old smelly uncle who used to be a golden gloves boxer.

Week 3 Mega Bets

Northwestern -3.5 vs Boston College – BC’s defense went south when they lost star LB Luke Kuechny to the NFL. Meanwhile, Northwestern is doing just enough to win. Last week they Cats rallied to beat a solid Vandy crew and started the year with a close road win over Syracuse - the same Syracuse who played USC close for 3 quarters. BC makes its first road trip of the year after a home loss to an overrated Miami (FL) squad and Div 1AA Maine. BC as one sack on the year which will give Cat QB Kain Colter plenty of time to find USC transfer WR Kyle Prater. Cats will win and Bruce will continue his stumbling Wildcat strut for another week.

BYU -4.0 @ Utah – It’s the 88th version of the Holy War! Utah is coming off a 27-20 loss last week in another rivalry game to Utah State. In the process they lost starting QB Jordan Wynn. Utah actually looked better against Utah State after losing Wynn. But BYU’s defense is a step up in capability. I don’t like taking favorites on the road in Rivalry games. Especially against a team in a bounce back situation. But this is a revenge game for BYU after losing last year 54-10. The Cougars will be fired up and will want to put a beat down on the Utes.

Baltimore +2.5 @ Philadelphia – I had to do a double take when I saw this spread. Baltimore is getting points? The Ravens are coming off a strong win on Monday Night over Cincinnati 44-13. Meanwhile, Michael Vick threw 4 picks and barely got by one of the worst teams in the league, Cleveland, 17-16. Vick is no longer a good QB. The Eagles coaching staff is trying to get him to stay in the pocket where he sucks. If he struggled against the Browns (their secondary isn’t that bad actually) how do you think he will do against Ray Lewis and Ed Reed? Since the game is being played in Philadelphia, the spread indicates that these teams are about even. They are not.

For the Point Whore Parlay I’ll take:
Wake Forest +28.0 @ Florida State
North Texas +28 @ Kansas State
UL Lafayette +22.5 @ Oklahoma State

Week 3 Bettors Guide.xls File Size: 199 kb File Type: xls

Week 3 Bettors Guidexls
File Size:	199 kb
File Type:	xls

Download File

]]><![CDATA[Week 2 Mega Bets]]>Wed, 05 Sep 2012 18:55:31 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/week-2-mega-bets

The Doofus Deck was rocking

The Doofus Deck was partying all weekend!!

The festivities started out Friday as we had a preparty for the cool guys (plus Dobby) to watch MSU break the Broncos of Boise State 17-13. MSU’s defense was outstanding holding Boise to its lowest offensive output ever under HC Chris Petersen (37 yds rushing and 206 yards total) and keeping the Bronco offense out of the end zone for the first time since 1997. Meanwhile, Le’veon Bell moved up the Heisman watch standings by rushing for 210 yards with 265 total yards against a solid BSU defense. Let’s hope they don’t overuse Le’veon like they did Javon Ringer back in 2009. Le'Veon is leaping up the Heisman charts.

On Saturday the place really got rocking as we gathered for an all day football watching, whiskey swilling, cigar chomping extravaganza. So many deviants showed up that we had to set up auxiliary seating and extra TVs just so everyone could see the games. Rock called that the ”seat back” rules would not be in affect causing everyone to hold on until their bladders were about to burst.

Le'Veon Bell is leaping up the Heisman charts

And there were tons of good games to watch. Ohio bested Penn State (Ohio is actually decent and will be a playa’ in the MAC while PSU is going to struggle after all the defections); Northwestern scored a winning TD with 44 seconds left to beat Syracuse (Bruce was strutting the rest of the day); Miami (FL) crushed BC 41-32 (BC’s defense sucks without Luke Kuechly at LB) and Louisville put a beat down on Kentucky 32-14 (SEC my butt).

By now our lighters were running low on fuel. Being the nice guy that I am I risked a pretty sweet sitting spot and went inside and got some butane. For whatever reason as soon as people put the butane in their lighters they stopped working entirely. I’ve been accused of having bad gas before but never in my lighters.

Luckily, some of the revelers still had functioning torches as the best games were still to come. The evening games were outstanding with a back and forth bout between Clemson and Auburn with Clemson pulling it out in the 4th quarter 26-19 (sorry Zac we were pulling for ya). And then came the best game of the weekend:

Bama stuffed Michigan

Week 1 Mega Bet results:

Alabama 41 Michigan 14 – Turns out that the Bama coaching staff spent some time over the summer picking the brains of the MSU staff about how they were able to bottle up Denard Robinson. Keep him moving inside the pocket and then force him to throw was the advice. He’s a terrible passer. It worked to perfection as Shoelaces was 11 for 26 with 2 picks through the air and 27 yards rushing. Meanwhile, the Tide OL was gashing the outmanned UM defensive line for total of 431 yards. Michigan was way overrated at number 8 and still is at 19. Lots of Wolverine losses still to come! Bama easily covered the 14 point spread WIN

But I should have gone with my gut and kept to one Mega Bet last weekend. But I put a couple of more out there that I didn’t have as good a feel for and it showed as:

Duke 46 Florida International 26 – FIU may have returned almost all their defense but they must have forgotten how to play. Duke won on some fluke plays including a 75 yards blocked kick return for a TD the last play of the first half and a 98 yd pick six with 1:19 left in the game. FIU actually outgained 530 yds to 420 but stats are for losers and you shouldn’t be giving up 420 yds to Duke anyways. Blue Devils easily covered the 3 point spread LOSS

But as bad as that pick was the last one of the weekend was the worst

Baylor 59 SMU 24 – I knew SMU’s defense was bad but I thought their offense would be OK. Think again. SMU’s QB is Garret Gilbert. He was bad a Texas and is no better at SMU. SMU’s defense was even worse than last year giving up a whopping 613 yds. Baylor jumped out to a 45-3 lead and then coasted for the win easily covering the 10 point spread. Oh, well at least I got the over – LOSS

The point whore parlay almost got a win going 2-1 with

Wyoming +31.5 @ Texas – Final Texas 37 Wyoming 17 WIN
North Texas +43 @ LSU – Final 41 North Texas 14 (that score rings a bell) WIN
Western Michigan +10 @ Illinois – Final Illinois 24 WMU 7 LOSS (Illinois got the cover with a pick 6 with 9 minutes left in the game – I’m was getting killed with fluke plays all weekend!)

Overall I was a putrid 19-27-0 including 3-1 on the over/unders. The first couple of weeks are the hardest but here goes the:

Week 2 Mega Bets:

North Carolina -10.5 @ Wake Forest – OK Ellis, time to put up or shut up. Ellis was spouting off all weekend about his Tar Heels crushing Elon 62-0. But that was Elon. Let’s see how they do against a real program. Then again Wake needed a 4th quarter TD to pull out a 20-17 win over Liberty. Liberty actually outgained WtF 363 yds to 293 and was -1 in turnovers – yet they still almost pulled out the win. The Deacons are struggling behind a revamped OL and RS freshman QB. And this is no longer a defense first Tar Heel squad. With new HC Larry Fedora the Heels are putting up the points. They will continue to do so until they play a team with a pulse. I’ve been burned before by over reading the results of week one (Kansas bouncing back after losing to North Dakota St to beat Georgia Tech back in 2010 comes to mind) but I’ll take my chances on NC. If it doesn’t work out blame Ellis.

La Tech -3.5 @ Houston – Houston must really miss QB Case Keenum. Current Cougar QB David Piland was 2-6 when he subbed for Keenum back in 2010. Make that 2-7 as Houston was upset by new Div 1A entrant Texas State 30-13. Now they go up against an underrated La Tech squad. La Tech is the favorite to win the final season of the WAC. Not sure what to expect from La Tech as their first game was washed out by hurricane Issac but I think they will have enough to handle a reeling Houston squad.

And the NFL kicks off tonight so I’ll go with my first pro pick of the year with:

Houston – 12 vs Miami – Miami is just a disaster. They easily have the worst front office in the NFL (trading Brandon Marshall to Chicago for a pair of 3rd round picks? – thanks for that one!). Add to that they traded their best CB Vontae Davis to the Colts. The talent drain is getting to be like 30 minutes after putting in the Draino. Houston’s defense will be playing with rookie QB Ryan Tannehill all day while Andre Johnson will be abusing whatever is left of the Fin’s secondary. This one has blowout written all over it.

And for this weeks Point Whore Parlay I'll go with
Central Florida +18.0 @ Ohio State
Purdue +14 @ Notre Dame
Air Force +21 @ Michigan
And for all the Doofus’ picks plus spreads, times, networks and more for all the college and pro games click on the file below

Week 2 Bettors Guide.xls
File Size:	220 kb
File Type:	xls

Download File

The Big Flippy made some picks:
"After a dismal preseason the big floppy is taking
North Carolina
Houston (the college version)
and Miami (the less criminal version)"

GO JUMBO Oct 20th at the LVH!!

]]><![CDATA[Week 1 Mega Bets]]>Thu, 30 Aug 2012 19:27:44 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/week-1-mega-bets1

Don't know who to pick

It’s that time of year again! Time for some football. Enough of watching “Glee”, “So you think you can dance” and whatever other crap the gang likes to watch during the offseason. My booze consumption skyrocketed just trying to get through those lame shows. Time for some good old fashioned running around and smashing into people.

The Doofus deck is going to be packed all day Saturday as we gather to watch FOOTBALL on multiple TVs, knock back some adult beverages, feed on some less than healthy grub all while burning some fine cigars. Damn, I love football season. It’s about time.

It’s also time to call your bookie and get ready to bet against the Doofus and his Mega Bets. It’s the first games of the season so who really knows how good teams are. Early season games are really a crap shoot but that doesn’t stop the Doofus. Nothing like getting all my bad picks out of the way before Vegas Baby! So without a whole lot to go on here are the Week 1 Mega Bets:

Alabama -14.0 vs Michigan (Dallas, TX) – It’s just like old times. Michigan starts out the season wildly overrated. Coming off a win in an undeserved BCS game, expectations are high in Ann Arbor. But the Wolverines have plenty of flaws – starting with both the offensive and defensive lines. On Saturday they will line up against one of the best defensive lines in the country. Denard will be running for his life. And unlike the ND game last year – when the pressure is on and he does his chuck and duck – it won’ t go for a TD but for an interception. Bama will be playing with a short field all day crushing scUM. And if you think Saban won’t run up the score – think again. He had no problem crushing MSU two years ago - and he likes MSU. He hates Michigan. The Tide will roll big time.

SMU +10.0 @ Baylor – Baylor’s defense last year was terrible. It still is but RGIII is now gone so the wins are going to be much more difficult. Meanwhile SMU returns a terrible defense too but its high powered offense returns. Expect a high scoring back and forth game (I like the over too) with SMU making a late score to get the cover.

FIU +3.0 @ Duke – HC Mario Cristobal agreed to stick around at FIU for at least one more year despite several tempting offers at bigger programs (one was your Rutgers team Dobby). 10 starters return from a defense that yielded less than 20 points per game last year - making his team among the favorites to win the Sun Belt. Duke has improved under David Cutcliffe but not very much. The Blue Devils still rummage around in the basement of the punchless ACC. This is a revenge game for FIU having lost to Duke at home last year 31-27. The Golden Panthers will get there revenge and the Dookies will begin their wait for the start of basketball season even earlier this year.

For the Point Whore Parlay (taking underdogs of at least 10 points or more on a parlay card) I’ll go with –

Wyoming +31.5 @ Texas
North Texas +43 @ LSU
Western Michigan +10 @ Illinois

And for the times, networks, results from last year, and picks for all the games click on the file below:

Week 1 Bettors Guide.xls
File Size:	198 kb
File Type:	xls

Download File

And while you are waiting for the games to start Doofus Brother Mike sent along this funny link Funny ESPN Game Day signs

GO JUMBO Oct 20th at the LVH

]]><![CDATA[1 Week to College Football]]>Sat, 25 Aug 2012 22:23:54 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/1-week-to-college-football1

Only one more week before the start of College Football!!

Some very fun and interesting news came out earlier this week. Back at the start of the 2007 season, Michigan embarrassed themselves as the first ranked Div 1A team to lose to a Div 1AA team. Expectations were high for the Wolvies as they were ranked number 5 only to lose to Appalachian State in the opener. Now there is a report that the Michigan players partied all summer, got high just before kickoff and never prepared for the game Chumps of the West . What a great game!! And to relive that classic ending click here The Upset . Still got the T shirt!

And it’s the game that just keeps on giving. The next week Oregon ran wild over Michigan 39-7 leading the brainfart trust in Ann Arbor to determine that they needed to have a spread offense too. Out with Floyd Carr and in with DickRod. Ahh, the DickRod years. Michigan was an absolute joke. Early season Heisman hopefuls, over rankings, horrid defenses. Man, that was just fun! Couldn’t have happened to a more deserving program.

Now they claim that they were high for the game. What a great excuse! Guess it shouldn’t count like when scUM fans say they DickRod years don’t count.

Chad Johnson’s butt buddy Terrell Owens is going to be shown the door up in Seattle. When you are the number 5 or 6 receiver seems like you should keep your mouth shut and work hard. Not T.O. He’s been his usual motor mouth self and then when it counts he drops 5 passes against Denver including a sure TD pass. Last night he drops two more against KC. Good riddance to the pair.

Another week and another All SEC player is kicked off a team. WR Da’Rick Rogers was booted from the Vols team after “violating team rules”. The SEC doesn’t have many rules but apparently not abusing substances is one of them. Rogers looked like he was going to be another TO/Ochocinco having been suspended for getting arrested after a bar brawl in 2010 (his second in 2 months) and run ins with various coaches including openly defying the strength and conditioning coach. Seems to me the last guy you want to piss off is the S&C coach. He is lucky he didn’t get his clock cleaned.

Next week I’ll have the first Mega Bets of the 2012 season. Already have my (one good) eye on a few games. Get ready to fade my picks and make some money. Can’t wait!

GO JUMBO – Oct 20th at the LVH (formerly the Las Vegas Hilton)

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]]><![CDATA[2 Weeks until College Football]]>Sun, 19 Aug 2012 16:38:20 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/2-weeks-until-college-football

We are ... MD!!

Only 2 more weeks until college football. Won't be long now.

I let my conscience by my guide earlier this week and it led me straight to Ellis’ deck. I guess it needed a few glasses of single pot Irish Whiskey and a couple 56 ring Maduros too. I like my conscience. It never steers me wrong. Most times it keeps me on the straight and narrow path but occasionally it likes to take the more scenic route.

The Dolphins continue to prove they are one of the biggest jokes in the NFL. Back in June the signed a real poison in the locker room, Chad “Don’t call me Ochocinco no more” Johnson. A few weeks later he was goofing with the head of security saying “Stu, I promise that I will get arrested”. Sure enough, last week, he was arrested for domestic battery. His wife, a reality “star” on Basketball Wives, confronted the rat bait receiver about a receipt for some condoms. It got heated and he headbutted her. What a guy! Apparently, the Fins got some common sense and released Chad. His planned reality show with his wife was also dropped. So he lost two paychecks in one day! Serves him right.

Details on Tyrann Mathieu’s release from LSU have started to surface. Apparently he failed multiple drug tests. Sources say that he is now entering drug rehab. They also deny it is for hard drugs only marijuana. I’ll call BS on that one. No one enters rehab for just weed. If so, Ricky Williams would have opened a whole chain of rehab joints.

Notre Dame released pictures of their 2012 “Shamrock Series” uniforms. They will be using the unis when they play Miami (FL) at Soldier Field. Wow, just wow. I like what one fan posted “We are, MD!” referring to the butt ugly Maryland state flag unis. Mark has been strangely silent on the whole matter. He’s no dummy.

But speaking of dummies - Denard Robinson claims that he can beat Usain Bolt in the 40. The 60 would be about a tie - but at least he admits that the guy who has 6 of the fastest 8 times ever would win the 100. Um sorry shoelace, just cause he looks slow at the start against the fastest men in the world doesn't mean he is a slow starter. He would kick your ass in the 40, the 10 even the 2 yard dash. Denard is living a fantasy, much like those who think Michigan is a top ten team this year.

Remember GO JUMBO weekend is Oct 20th at the LVH hotel.

]]><![CDATA[3 weeks to College Football!!]]>Sat, 11 Aug 2012 20:55:04 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/3-weeks-to-college-football

The gang was sportin' the colors this week!

Only three more weeks to College Football

It was full FPC colors on Thursday!! Dan had decided that it had been too long since we had an official FPC outing. In fact, the last time we had one was to visit Ellis in the hospital. So we decided to go to watch “The Watch” which had several scenes filmed around the ‘Hood – including much of it set in the old Costcos just down the road. Without giving away the ending – I always wondered what happened to the old Costcos – now we know.

We went all out including wearing the official colors - a Lebowskiesque bowling shirt with logos. Starting out with a warm up session of pitchers and cigars over at a local watering hole – we then proceeded over to the Movie Theatre. After flashing our gang signs (two fingers and a thumb around a corkscrew with a twisting motion) we went inside and had our pictures taken by the Manager. We thought he was doing us a favor but I think he kept a copy inside his office for his employees to keep an eye on in the future.

The movie was a laugh riot! One of those ones you have to see several times to hear all the great lines. Definitely worth seeing again. Good times were had by all.

Now, given the recent happenings in Colorado seems like the last thing you would want to do around there is go around brandishing guns or even fake guns. But that didn’t stop several Colorado Buffs from driving around gangster style shooting pellet guns at each other. According to the local Boulder paper “Around 2 a.m. Saturday, police were waved down near Broadway and Pennsylvania Avenue by a woman who said she saw a passenger in a silver sedan pointing a gun at another car.

Police caught up to the two vehicles -- a 1999 Audi A6 and a 2001 BMW X5, according to police records -- near Broadway and Canyon Boulevard. The officers responding called for backup.

Police said several of the men in the cars became immediately antagonistic with officers as they were ordered out of the vehicles at gunpoint. Officers said Thornton told officers, "Go ahead! Shoot me, mother (expletive)," "I can go wherever the (expletive) I want," and, "This is Boulder and you have your guns out?"

Quite the distraction

When the men were told about a report of a gun in the car, Clark told officers, "Yeah, but it's a BB gun," according to the report. Officers reported finding a black Airsoft pistol in the front seat that police said was labeled as and had the appearance of an authentic Walther P99, a semi-automatic pistol.

The men said they were just playing around with the gun and that they all knew each other. An officer disassembled the gun before returning it to Clark.

"It was three guys making poor decisions," coach John Embree said after Tuesday's practice. Poor decision? That’s saying it lightly. Going around shooting pellet guns and telling the cops “Go ahead! Shoot me mother (expletive). Damn lucky he didn’t. Thorton and another player were suspended for the first two games of the season. Knuckleheads. Quite the distraction! And while those Buffs were only suspended – LSU CB Tyrann “Honey Badger” Mathieu was kicked off the team for “violating team rules” Must have been a hell of a rule to get a Heisman finalist and 2011 Defensive player of the year - not just suspended but kicked off the team and his scholarship revoked. Can’t wait to hear the details on that one. The Tigers were favored by 43 over North Texas prior to the announcement. Don’t be surprised if the line moves a few points towards the Mean Green.

Mizzou HC Gary Pinckel decided his team was a little distracted earlier this week. When he looked up in the stands he saw why. A couple very nice looking ladies wearing some typcical summer wear were jogging through the stands. He “asked them to leave and come back later”. I assume he meant on a non-Petrino manner. No word if the ladies were SEC spies.

GO JUMBO – Oct 20th 2012 at the Las Vegas Hotel.

]]><![CDATA[4 Weeks until College Football!!]]>Fri, 03 Aug 2012 19:17:57 GMThttps://www.bigbookofguesses.com/previous-mega-bets/4-weeks-until-college-football

An unintentional haunting memorial to the cover up

Only four more weeks until College football kicks off! Can’t wait!

Time to get the PSU atrocity, Petrino’s motorcycle mistress, suspensions galore (including TCU’s QB and Clemson All America WR for getting stopped with Ganja in the car, while 5 players at Air Force, 4 players at Oklahoma, 3 players at Indiana, 2 players at Pitt, 2 at Notre Dame and many more for the standard “violating team rules”) plus running backs getting hospitalized in a brawl or arrested for carrying around loaded Lugars - put it all in the rear view mirror. Makes last year’s angst over schools changing conferences seem like a cake walk. Let’s get the season started already!!

But first – the NCAA handed down it penalties to PSU. Thankfully, it didn’t take them long. PSU was able to negotiate its way out of a 4 year death penalty We'll take door number 2 opting instead for:

• $60 million fine – supposedly to go to a fund endowments to prevent child abuse or assist victims. Given that PSU and the NCAA are political organizations – somehow the money will end up in their own pockets.
• Vacating of wins from 1998-2011 (112 wins) – lame lame lame. Only in politics and higher education can you so blatantly rewrite history. I watched PSU’s Larry Johnson go off for 279 yards against MSU in 2002. Guess that was just a bad dream. With the wins vacated JoePa drops to fifth in all time Div 1A wins. Bobby Bowden now gets the title with a big asterisk next to it. Dadgum!
• Four-year postseason ban – OK could have been longer
• Four-year scholarship reduction (10 initial; 20 total) – This is where they really start getting to penalizing the program
• Players may transfer and play immediately at other schools – A real killer. The team is getting hurt now with starting star RB Silas Redd transferring to Southern Cal, QB Robert Bolden transferring to LSU and at least three other players transferring so far– PSU talent level takes an immediate hit. Add in the scholarship reductions and their ability to replenish also takes a nosedive. PSU is going to go downhill for several years.
• Athletic department on probation for five years – yawn

The Big Ten piled on the fines by eliminating PSU from any bowl sharing revenues this year - estimated at $13 million. Haven't heard where that money will go but the Big 10 is also a political organization.....

PSU also took down JoePa’s statue. But rather than melt it down it is securely stashed away in the stadium. Instead, they unintentionally left behind a ghostly memorial to the victoms of the cover up. Somewhere, some idiots are surely contemplating white washing his legacy and having a triumphal reemergence. Hopefully not in my lifetime.

OK I’m done with all that crap. Time to start playing some football. The LVH just sent out their opening lines for the week one games Game 1 Lines. Got my eye on several lines - more in the coming weeks. I can just feel some MegaBets coming my way.

And some good news – Caesar’s Palace is opening the Strip’s biggest buffet (after dropping a cool $17 million) called Bacchanal on September 10th. Pat will be wanting to stop on by after making short work of the LVH buffet last year.

GO JUMBO – Oct 20th at the Las Vegas Hotel. They are still having specials through the next 30-45 days. Hopefully the will extend the great rates

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