After 4 straight years - the Paul Bunyon trophy has enough credits to graduate from State. A few more years and he will be there as long as some of my kids.
The Big Book of Guesses was not so hot going a fairly random 33-37-3. But - it's not how you pick 'em - it's how you bet 'em. And the Doofus had a great week too going 3-1 as:
Week 4 Recap: Alabama -25.0 @ Mississippi: That's the way you blow out a team. Ole Miss scored on their opening drive but that was all. Bama then spent the rest of the game stuffing the Rebs (holding them to 137 yds of total offense) while piling on 52 points. A beautiful beat down. Final Bama 52 Ole Missing offense 7 WIN
Clemson -8.0 @ Maryland - Clemson HC Dabo Sweeney was not about to get Mike Stoopsed and get the axe after blowing a Mega Bet. Trailing 38-24 late in the 3rd quarter to a mediocre Maryland team - the Tigers went on a tear. Clemson reeled off 32 points in a little over 15 minutes to beat the Terps. With 3:35 left they got their final TD and a a nice front door cover. Final Clemson 56 Cool flags 45. WIN
Western Michigan -1.0 @ Northern Illinois - Went to the well one too many times with Western. Should have stopped when I was ahead - especially on the road. In blustery conditions the Huskies kept to the ground - pounding out 494 yds on the Broncos. Western led 15-13 at the half but collapsed in the second half - letting up 38 straight points. Final NIU 51 Where's Waldo Stadium 22 LOSS
Green Bay -15.0 vs St Louis - Another nice beat down. Green Bay, in their hideous retro uniforms jumped to a 24-0 lead then coasted in the second half. The defense held the inept Rams offense to one late 2nd quarter FG. Final Green Bay 24 Lambs 3 WIN
Mississippi +25 vs Bama LOSS
Clemson -8.0 @ Maryland WIN
Western Michigan -1.0 @ Northern Illinois LOSS
Green Bay -15.0 @ St Louis WIN
An interesting trend is developing. Over the last 4 weeks, the Big Flippy has disagreed with the Doofus on only 5 picks so far this year. If you went with the Doofus - you would be 3-1-1
The Sax Man continues to struggle as he went 1-2:
Georgia Tech -7.0 @ UVA - Final - Virgina 24 Bees 21 LOSS Don't bet with your heart Sax Man
Wake +7 vs Virginia Tech - Final - Va Tech 24 WtF 17 LOSS
Chicago -2.5 vs Minnesota - Final - Chicago 39 Norseman 10 WIN
The Sheriff of Malibu also went with his heart taking:
Cal +3 over USC - Final - Trojans 39 Teddy Bears 10 LOSS
Not only did the sheriff go with his heart - he went against the Big Guy. Not a good strategy at all -
Because the Big Guy continue his amazing streak going 3-0 with:
Michigan State -2.5 vs Michigan - Final - MSU 28 Whiney Wolvies 14- WIN
The Ohio State +3.5 @ Fighting Illini - Final - OSU 17 Foo Fighting Illini - WIN
USC -3.0 @ Cal - Final - USC 39 Cal 10 - WIN
Let's hope the Big Guy and the Doofus" streaks continue: This week I will go with:
Week 8 Mega Bets:
West Virginia -14.0 @ Syracuse: Playing the revenge angle here. Syracuse upset the 'Neers in Morgantown last year 19-14. WVU also laid an egg last time they were in the spotlight - losing to LSU 47-21. This week they will take out both of those frustrations on an out manned Syracuse team. Syracuse might be the worst 4-2 in the country. Their offense is bad ranking number 72 but their defense is worse ranking 96th (112th against the pass). In perfect conditions in the Carrier Dome, WVU's 4th ranked aerial attack should have a field day. This should be over by half time
Washington State -3.0 vs Oregon State - Wazzou is in the hunt for a bowl at 3-3. The Beav is not - at a not as good as it looks 1-5. It will be bombs away for the Cougars as they are 26th in passing offense against OSU's 90th ranked pass defense. Last week, WSU played Stanford tough for a half - trailing 10-7 but collapsed in the second half. This week the Cougars have the home crowd and a chance at a lay up to go bowling for the first time since 2003. They won't blow it this time. OSU is 2-8 over their last 10 games against the spread. WSU is 10-4 ATS over the last 14. I like those trends.
Arkansas -15.5 @ Mississippi - Ole Miss is terrible. Their defense ranks 106th slightly better than their offense at 117. Arkansas still has a chance to play in the National Championship if they win out (including a win at LSU) and Bama loses to LSU and stumbles again. A long shot - but it shows what they are thinking about. They beat two very good teams in Texas A&M and Auburn before taking last week off. Vandy is next week - so it won't be like they are looking ahead. I say they will be going for style points and try to out do Bama's 52-7 clubbing of the Rebs last week. Arkansas is 10-4 against the spread over the last 14. Ole Miss is 1-5 ATS as an SEC host.
Green Bay -8.5 @ Minnesota - The Donovan Mcabb experiment is over in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Minnesota is already playing for the future and starting rookie QB Christian Ponder. His first task - taking on Green Bay's stout defense. The Pack's pass defense may be ranked 31 but its because teams are playing catch up. Minnesota will try to break in Ponder by running Adrian Peterson at Green Bay - but the Packs 5th best run defense will keep him in check. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers will be building up a 2 TD lead on their hated rivals. Then Minny's overrated draft pick of a QB will be forced to throw, make tons of mistakes and the Pack will cruise. Green Bay has been a cash machine at the Sportsbooks going 25-9-2 against the spread since 2009.
New Orleans -14.0 vs Indianapolis - Playing the bounce back angle here. Drew Brees threw three picks last week (including one at 4th and goal from the 4 with 3:00 left that would have put the Saints ahead) in a crushing loss to Tampa bay. New Orleans now trails Tampa Bay in the NFC South so will need to get back on track. What better time to play a reeling 0-6 Colts team. NBC wishes they could reschedule this game as it should be a blow out. The Saints need this game - are playing at home in the national spotlight against a depleted Colts squad. Another game over by the half.
Not Ready for Prime Time Picks (but worth a Mini-Mega):
Bama -29.5 vs Tennessee - The Tide is Rolling. Bama will be going for style points against a Vol squad without their best player (QB Tyler Bray). Inexperienced Matt Simms (son of Phil) is way over his head against the best defense not in Baton Rouge. LSU abused the Vols 38-7 last week. Bama will try to outdo that score in front of a rocking home crowd.
Louisiana Lafayette -3.0 @ Western Kentucky - Perhaps the best team in the Sun Belt takes on a team just ahead of Florida Atlantic for the worst. The Ragin Cajuns will avenge last years pummeling by the PillPoppers as the march forward towards the SunBelt belt.
Oklahoma State -6.5 @ Missouri - Put your hand up if you knew OK State was number 1 in the BCS computers. OK - put your hand down - no you didn't. The Cowboys can play in the National Championship against whoever wins the SEC championship game. They need to win out (including a huge BCS booster win over Oklahoma on Dec 3rd) but it's there for the taking. Missouri is a competent squad but will lose to OK State in a shoot out.
Wake Forest -3.0 @ Duke - Playing a bounce back angle here too. Wake lost a tough one to Va Tech last week. They need this game to stay in the hunt for an outside chance at an ACC division title. Midnight Madness has already happened at Duke. Football is an afterthought.
Rutgers @ Louisville Under 40.0 - Two solid defenses with anemic offenses go at it. The Over/Under bar is low but these teams will limbo under it. How low can you go?
The Big Flippy took a few moments away from a well deserved vacation to go with:
West Virginia -14.0 @ Syracuse
OSU +3.0 vs Washington State
Arkansas - 15.5 @ Mississippi
Minnesota +8.5 vs Green Bay
New Orleans -14.0 vs Indianapolis
The Sax Man likes:
Michigan State +7.5 vs Wisconsin: Fun Fact: Michigan State has not lost a home game in almost two years. That stadium, especially for a night game, will be a "snake pit". I was at the MSU - UM game last week, and I was amazed at how loud Spartan Stadium can get. This two teams will not be separated by more than a touchdown all game.
NY Jets +1.0 vs San Diego: Two reasons for this pick: 1. The Jets play a million times better at the Met. 2: West Coast team coming east for a 1 pm start.
Green Bay -9.0 @ Minnesooooooooooota: Two words for this pick: Christian Ponder.
And drum roll please - here is the Big Guys picks:
Penn State -4.0 @Northwestern
Michigan State +7.5 vs Wisconsin
Georgia Tech +3.0 @ The Hurricanes.
I've changed my picks accordingly. Actually - I had those picks already. Just glad the Big Guy is good with them.
For the Point Whore Parlay I'll go with:
Texas Tech +29.0 @ Oklahoma
Air Force +31.0 @ Boise State
Auburn +21.5 @ LSU
For the Over/Under Parlay I'll take:
Temple @ Bowling Green over 48.5
Utah @ California under 46.5
OK State @ Mizzou over 60.0
And of course - here is the Week 8 Bettors Guide