Sorry - those Week 5 picks really stunk
Not a good week as the BBofG went 29-40-0 including a snake bit 2-7 on games decided by 1 point or less.
The Big Flippy finally awoke getting off to a modest 2-2 start going with UAB (Win) LSU (Win) St. Louis (Loss) Atlanta (Loss). Randomness rules at an expected 50% clip.
The Sax Man went 2-1 with Oregon (Win) Buffalo (Nice win - NE was up 21-0 but Buffalo came back to win 34-31 on a walk off FG) and Atlanta (Loss) bringing his season record to 6-4.
In a strange finish - Toledo made a FG as time expired to tie the game. Syracuse went on to win in OT. But after the game the Big East issued a statement that a Syracuse extra point with 2:07 left was not good and the "replay official erred in not overturning the ruling." Bad Call Had the extra point been ruled correctly Toledo would have won 30-29 in regulation. Toledo is now asking the Big East to have Syracuse vacate the win. Good Luck with that Rocket fans.
An update on Minnesota HC Jerry Kill - he checked himself into the Mayo Clinic on Sunday after having another seizure that morning. It is unclear whether he will be on the sidelines in the Big Ten opener against Michigan. Let's hope they get his condition under control. Meanwhile the Gophers continue to tank losing to 1AA North Dakota St 37-24 to drop to 1-3.
Speaking of 1AA upsets - a week after UNLV beats Hawaii in a Mega Bet upset, UNLV loses to 1AA Southern Utah - sigh. I was right - UNLV is bad -they just get fired up when the Doofus picks against them. Well, I'm ready for you Rebs - there'll be more mega bets coming after you!
The Big Flippy finally awoke getting off to a modest 2-2 start going with UAB (Win) LSU (Win) St. Louis (Loss) Atlanta (Loss). Randomness rules at an expected 50% clip.
The Sax Man went 2-1 with Oregon (Win) Buffalo (Nice win - NE was up 21-0 but Buffalo came back to win 34-31 on a walk off FG) and Atlanta (Loss) bringing his season record to 6-4.
In a strange finish - Toledo made a FG as time expired to tie the game. Syracuse went on to win in OT. But after the game the Big East issued a statement that a Syracuse extra point with 2:07 left was not good and the "replay official erred in not overturning the ruling." Bad Call Had the extra point been ruled correctly Toledo would have won 30-29 in regulation. Toledo is now asking the Big East to have Syracuse vacate the win. Good Luck with that Rocket fans.
An update on Minnesota HC Jerry Kill - he checked himself into the Mayo Clinic on Sunday after having another seizure that morning. It is unclear whether he will be on the sidelines in the Big Ten opener against Michigan. Let's hope they get his condition under control. Meanwhile the Gophers continue to tank losing to 1AA North Dakota St 37-24 to drop to 1-3.
Speaking of 1AA upsets - a week after UNLV beats Hawaii in a Mega Bet upset, UNLV loses to 1AA Southern Utah - sigh. I was right - UNLV is bad -they just get fired up when the Doofus picks against them. Well, I'm ready for you Rebs - there'll be more mega bets coming after you!
Of course, Hawaii, after blowing a Mega Bet goes back to the islands and sets an NCAA record 7 first half passing TDs in crushing 1AA UC Davis 56-14 - heavy sigh. That's it Rainbow Warriors - no more picking you unless you are on the volcanoes
The annual Coaching Carousel got off to an early start this year as New Mexico fired HC Mike Locksley. New Mexico lost 48-45 in overtime Saturday to Div1AA Sam Houston State bringing his record down to 2-26. Not only did Locksley have an pathetic record, he also made news during his New Mexico tenure with a sexual harassment lawsuit by a former administrative assistant and an altercation with a former assistant coach, leading to a 10-day suspension.
In the final blow to his tenure - before Saturday's game, Albuquerque police arrested a man claiming to be a New Mexico football recruit for aggravated DWI, minor in possession, reckless driving and driving without a license,near the stadium. A school official said Joshua Butts, 19, borrowed a vehicle from Locksley's son, who's a walk-on player for the Lobos. The SUV is registered to Meiko Locksley and Mike Locksley's wife, Kia. This guy was a walking disaster as a HC.
In the weekly Conference Musical Chairs - The SEC made it official deciding to allow Texas A&M join July 2012. No word on threatened lawsuits by the remaining Big 12 (9) teams....
Despite awful selections by the Big Book of Guesses, the Doofus managed to go break even as the Mega Bets went 2-2 - bringing the season record to 7-6:
Week 4 Mega Bets Recap:
East Carolina -13.0 vs UAB - Tough to cover 13 points when you turn it over seven times. East Carolina's drives went interception, TD, fumble, fumble, fumble, TD, end of half, interception, TD, TD, fumble (in the UAB endzone no less - negating a TD which would have put them up 14 points), interception, end of game. They never punted. It was either TD or turnover. Ugly Ugly Ugly. Just plain old snake bit this week. Final ECU 28 UAB 23 LOSS
LSU -6.0 @ West Virginia - LSU's defense forced 3 first half turnovers as the Tigers built a 21-7 halftime lead. WVU mounted a second half comeback cutting the lead to 27-21 but LSU returned the ensuing kickoff back to the house - stretching the lead to 34-21. In the fourth quarter, WVU fumbled it away for their fourth turnover. LSU scored again to put the game away. Final score Bayou Bengals 47 Moonshi'Neers 21 WIN
Baltimore -4 @ St Louis - As expected, Baltimore bounced back in fine fashion against a reeling St Louis squad. The Ravens went off for a franchise record 553 yards of offense (besting their previous record of 548 yds against the Lions 'natch). Baltimore had 7 first half drives - scoring on 5 and missing a FG - to go up 27-0 at the half. Baltimore didn't punt until 2 1/2 minutes left in the and the defense limited St Louis to 244 yds in a 37-7 rout WIN
Atlanta +2 @ Tampa Bay - The Falcons continued to struggle on offense as they turned it over 3 times and Matt Ryan was sacked 4 times in an ugly loss to Tampa Bay. It was the first victory by the Bucs after 5 straight losses to Atlanta. Atlanta scored 10 points in the 4th quarter to close the gap to 16-13 and looked like it was on track to mount another comeback win. But with Tampa Bay going for it on 4 and a foot with 1:49 left at the Falcon 45, Atlanta calls time out to make sure the don't jump offsides - and they jumps offsides any way. Idiots. First down Bucs and game. Final TB 16 ATL 13 (another 1 point loss to the spread) LOSS
Going to get the get the Mega Bets out early this week as I have some travel plans. Let's hope a little less thinking will help the cause:
Week 5 Mega Bets:
Georgia Tech -10.0 @ NC State - Going with the revenge angles this week. NC State's defense is awful ranking 93rd overall. Last week they gave up 503 yards to Cincinnati. Next up is GT - the number one offense in the land. The Wreck is averaging 630 yds of offense per game. The Bees will avenge last years 45-28 loss to the Pack. This should be over by half time.
Troy -16.5 vs UAB - UAB is bad. Even when they get the benefit of seven turnovers - they can't win a game. They blew up a Mega Bet last week. No way it happens two weeks in a row! It's also a revenge match up for Troy who fell to the Blazers 34-33 last year. Troy has been playing well despite a 1-2 record. The losses were to Clemson and Arkansas (a closer than it looks 38-28 loss) Meanwhile UAB has been pummeled by Florida (which is OK) but also Tulane 49-10! The Trojans return home and destroy a reeling UAB.
Washington +1 @ St Louis - Playing the bounce back angle here. Washington lost a tough road game to Dallas. The Skins kept the Boys out of the endzone but lost based on six FG's. The Skins have their problems including an inconsistent Rex Grossman but they have nowhere near the problems of the inept Rams. They have resorted to being the worst team in the league again. It will probably be ugly but Washington will escape with a win.
Games just missing the Mega Bets but worth checking out:
Boise State -27.5 vs Nevada - Another revenge matchup. Last year, in one of the most dramatic and exciting games of the year - Nevada came back to upset Boise State 34-32. This year, BSU is still a great team while Nevada has fallen off the map. In the last game this year for the Broncos to wear blue on the smurf turf (they are banned from doing so during league play) they will roll the WolfPack. No putting in the second string this week, Boise will smack down their old WAC nemesis.
Texas -9.5 @ Iowa State - It's the revenge tour for Texas. Lots of teams finally got to Texas last year after years of futility. Two weeks ago, the Longhorns got payback on UCLA crushing the Bruins 49-20. Next up is Iowa State who upset the Horns 28-21 in Austin last year. The Texas defense has been solid this year ranking 10th overall despite playing some average to OK offenses in Rice, UCLA and BYU. Iowa State beat Iowa in OT but struggled to beat a subpar UConn and 1AA Northern Iowa. Case McCoy (Colt's brother) appears to be the answer for Texas at QB replacing a horrendous Garret (Grape) Gilbert. Both teams are coming off bye weeks. - which should benefit the young Texas QB.
Cincinnati -14.0 @ Miami (OH) - Cincinnati got its offense untracked last week in a beat down of NC State. NC State is bad but Cincy showed what it can do. Miami (OH) is reeling this year after a Cinderella 2010 campaign with losses to an OK Missouri squad but also losses to bad teams in Minnesota and Bowling Green. This is a rivalry game so be careful. That said Cincy won last year 45-3 and should win handily this year too.
Houston -15.5 @ UTEP - UTEP is one level up from really bad with wins over 1AA Stony Brook and a real bad New Mexico State. Last week they were crushed by South Florida 52-24. Houston is every bit as good if not better than South Florida. Their offense just rolls teams behind QB Case Keenum. Keenum will be in attendance when the Heisman is handed out and will be padding his stats against the 94th ranked Miner defense.
Western Michigan +3 @ UConn - Western is due for an upset of a BCS school. They nearly took down Illinois last week. UConn has regressed under new HC Paul Pasqualoni. Last week the Huskies beat Buffalo 17-3. Western is much better than Buffalo.
Minnesota -1.5 @ Kansas City - Minnesota has led by double digits every game this season (including 20-0 over the Lions last week) only to lose each game. One of these weeks they will hang on to a lead. Just in time is the train wreck of Kansas City. The Chiefs are feeling good in that they only lost by 3 to an under performing Charger squad. Adrian Peterson will roll over a 28th ranked KC run defense
New Orleans -6.5 @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville is beginning to go into melt down mode. Last week the lost to Carolina in a monsoon. HC Jack Del Rio may not last the season and is blaming his OC for being too conservative on the play calling last week. Well, if you didn't like it - get it fixed during the game! The Jags looked to have bailed on the season already by starting rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. Rookies don't look good against the Saints D.
Going to take a stab at a Point Whore Parlay this week with:
Ball State +37 @ Oklahoma
Rice +15 @ Southern Miss
Kentucky +29.5 @ LSU
For the Over Under Parlay I'll go with:
Pitt USF under 52
Western Michigan UConn over 44.5
Navy Air Force under 53.5
The Sax Man is going with:
Tough Week this week, I'm going with
Georgia Tech (-10) over NC State: Remember two weeks ago when the Jackets played Kansas? This one's gonna be even worse for the Pack. I'll be at this game and its gonna be over early. Tech by at least 20.
Michigan State (+3) over Ohio State: Sure, you would've thought I'd have learned my lesson from the last time I picked the Spartans in a road game getting 3 points. But I didn't. I like the Spartans against the least talented Buckeye team in a decade.
Detroit (+1) over Dallas: Rounding out my homer week this week, I like Detroit against a banged up Dallas team that kicked six field goals last week to beat Washington. Even though this is a classic game where the Old Lions would tear my heart out and lose to a team they should beat, I think they've turned a corner.
Finally a new picker who is yet to adopt a moniker is going with: Auburn +9.5 over USC (of course I think we have this one in us this will be an indicator and a big game for us)
Wisconsin -9.0 over Nebraska (I'm going against you and going with my only non-upset pick on this one Wisconsin's running game is just too good)
Air Force +3.0 over Navy (Tim Jefferson is a Woodward grad and I know navy's triple option is good but T.J. is a game changer)
Detroit +1.0 over Dallas (I may not be a big fan of the NFL but I can't believe that they picked a pansy of a quarterback in Romo to beat the stacked d-line at Detroit. Even if my boy Nick doesn't play)
For all the Big Book of Guesses picks - see the Week 5 Handy Dandy Bettors Guide below:
The annual Coaching Carousel got off to an early start this year as New Mexico fired HC Mike Locksley. New Mexico lost 48-45 in overtime Saturday to Div1AA Sam Houston State bringing his record down to 2-26. Not only did Locksley have an pathetic record, he also made news during his New Mexico tenure with a sexual harassment lawsuit by a former administrative assistant and an altercation with a former assistant coach, leading to a 10-day suspension.
In the final blow to his tenure - before Saturday's game, Albuquerque police arrested a man claiming to be a New Mexico football recruit for aggravated DWI, minor in possession, reckless driving and driving without a license,near the stadium. A school official said Joshua Butts, 19, borrowed a vehicle from Locksley's son, who's a walk-on player for the Lobos. The SUV is registered to Meiko Locksley and Mike Locksley's wife, Kia. This guy was a walking disaster as a HC.
In the weekly Conference Musical Chairs - The SEC made it official deciding to allow Texas A&M join July 2012. No word on threatened lawsuits by the remaining Big 12 (9) teams....
Despite awful selections by the Big Book of Guesses, the Doofus managed to go break even as the Mega Bets went 2-2 - bringing the season record to 7-6:
Week 4 Mega Bets Recap:
East Carolina -13.0 vs UAB - Tough to cover 13 points when you turn it over seven times. East Carolina's drives went interception, TD, fumble, fumble, fumble, TD, end of half, interception, TD, TD, fumble (in the UAB endzone no less - negating a TD which would have put them up 14 points), interception, end of game. They never punted. It was either TD or turnover. Ugly Ugly Ugly. Just plain old snake bit this week. Final ECU 28 UAB 23 LOSS
LSU -6.0 @ West Virginia - LSU's defense forced 3 first half turnovers as the Tigers built a 21-7 halftime lead. WVU mounted a second half comeback cutting the lead to 27-21 but LSU returned the ensuing kickoff back to the house - stretching the lead to 34-21. In the fourth quarter, WVU fumbled it away for their fourth turnover. LSU scored again to put the game away. Final score Bayou Bengals 47 Moonshi'Neers 21 WIN
Baltimore -4 @ St Louis - As expected, Baltimore bounced back in fine fashion against a reeling St Louis squad. The Ravens went off for a franchise record 553 yards of offense (besting their previous record of 548 yds against the Lions 'natch). Baltimore had 7 first half drives - scoring on 5 and missing a FG - to go up 27-0 at the half. Baltimore didn't punt until 2 1/2 minutes left in the and the defense limited St Louis to 244 yds in a 37-7 rout WIN
Atlanta +2 @ Tampa Bay - The Falcons continued to struggle on offense as they turned it over 3 times and Matt Ryan was sacked 4 times in an ugly loss to Tampa Bay. It was the first victory by the Bucs after 5 straight losses to Atlanta. Atlanta scored 10 points in the 4th quarter to close the gap to 16-13 and looked like it was on track to mount another comeback win. But with Tampa Bay going for it on 4 and a foot with 1:49 left at the Falcon 45, Atlanta calls time out to make sure the don't jump offsides - and they jumps offsides any way. Idiots. First down Bucs and game. Final TB 16 ATL 13 (another 1 point loss to the spread) LOSS
Going to get the get the Mega Bets out early this week as I have some travel plans. Let's hope a little less thinking will help the cause:
Week 5 Mega Bets:
Georgia Tech -10.0 @ NC State - Going with the revenge angles this week. NC State's defense is awful ranking 93rd overall. Last week they gave up 503 yards to Cincinnati. Next up is GT - the number one offense in the land. The Wreck is averaging 630 yds of offense per game. The Bees will avenge last years 45-28 loss to the Pack. This should be over by half time.
Troy -16.5 vs UAB - UAB is bad. Even when they get the benefit of seven turnovers - they can't win a game. They blew up a Mega Bet last week. No way it happens two weeks in a row! It's also a revenge match up for Troy who fell to the Blazers 34-33 last year. Troy has been playing well despite a 1-2 record. The losses were to Clemson and Arkansas (a closer than it looks 38-28 loss) Meanwhile UAB has been pummeled by Florida (which is OK) but also Tulane 49-10! The Trojans return home and destroy a reeling UAB.
Washington +1 @ St Louis - Playing the bounce back angle here. Washington lost a tough road game to Dallas. The Skins kept the Boys out of the endzone but lost based on six FG's. The Skins have their problems including an inconsistent Rex Grossman but they have nowhere near the problems of the inept Rams. They have resorted to being the worst team in the league again. It will probably be ugly but Washington will escape with a win.
Games just missing the Mega Bets but worth checking out:
Boise State -27.5 vs Nevada - Another revenge matchup. Last year, in one of the most dramatic and exciting games of the year - Nevada came back to upset Boise State 34-32. This year, BSU is still a great team while Nevada has fallen off the map. In the last game this year for the Broncos to wear blue on the smurf turf (they are banned from doing so during league play) they will roll the WolfPack. No putting in the second string this week, Boise will smack down their old WAC nemesis.
Texas -9.5 @ Iowa State - It's the revenge tour for Texas. Lots of teams finally got to Texas last year after years of futility. Two weeks ago, the Longhorns got payback on UCLA crushing the Bruins 49-20. Next up is Iowa State who upset the Horns 28-21 in Austin last year. The Texas defense has been solid this year ranking 10th overall despite playing some average to OK offenses in Rice, UCLA and BYU. Iowa State beat Iowa in OT but struggled to beat a subpar UConn and 1AA Northern Iowa. Case McCoy (Colt's brother) appears to be the answer for Texas at QB replacing a horrendous Garret (Grape) Gilbert. Both teams are coming off bye weeks. - which should benefit the young Texas QB.
Cincinnati -14.0 @ Miami (OH) - Cincinnati got its offense untracked last week in a beat down of NC State. NC State is bad but Cincy showed what it can do. Miami (OH) is reeling this year after a Cinderella 2010 campaign with losses to an OK Missouri squad but also losses to bad teams in Minnesota and Bowling Green. This is a rivalry game so be careful. That said Cincy won last year 45-3 and should win handily this year too.
Houston -15.5 @ UTEP - UTEP is one level up from really bad with wins over 1AA Stony Brook and a real bad New Mexico State. Last week they were crushed by South Florida 52-24. Houston is every bit as good if not better than South Florida. Their offense just rolls teams behind QB Case Keenum. Keenum will be in attendance when the Heisman is handed out and will be padding his stats against the 94th ranked Miner defense.
Western Michigan +3 @ UConn - Western is due for an upset of a BCS school. They nearly took down Illinois last week. UConn has regressed under new HC Paul Pasqualoni. Last week the Huskies beat Buffalo 17-3. Western is much better than Buffalo.
Minnesota -1.5 @ Kansas City - Minnesota has led by double digits every game this season (including 20-0 over the Lions last week) only to lose each game. One of these weeks they will hang on to a lead. Just in time is the train wreck of Kansas City. The Chiefs are feeling good in that they only lost by 3 to an under performing Charger squad. Adrian Peterson will roll over a 28th ranked KC run defense
New Orleans -6.5 @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville is beginning to go into melt down mode. Last week the lost to Carolina in a monsoon. HC Jack Del Rio may not last the season and is blaming his OC for being too conservative on the play calling last week. Well, if you didn't like it - get it fixed during the game! The Jags looked to have bailed on the season already by starting rookie QB Blaine Gabbert. Rookies don't look good against the Saints D.
Going to take a stab at a Point Whore Parlay this week with:
Ball State +37 @ Oklahoma
Rice +15 @ Southern Miss
Kentucky +29.5 @ LSU
For the Over Under Parlay I'll go with:
Pitt USF under 52
Western Michigan UConn over 44.5
Navy Air Force under 53.5
The Sax Man is going with:
Tough Week this week, I'm going with
Georgia Tech (-10) over NC State: Remember two weeks ago when the Jackets played Kansas? This one's gonna be even worse for the Pack. I'll be at this game and its gonna be over early. Tech by at least 20.
Michigan State (+3) over Ohio State: Sure, you would've thought I'd have learned my lesson from the last time I picked the Spartans in a road game getting 3 points. But I didn't. I like the Spartans against the least talented Buckeye team in a decade.
Detroit (+1) over Dallas: Rounding out my homer week this week, I like Detroit against a banged up Dallas team that kicked six field goals last week to beat Washington. Even though this is a classic game where the Old Lions would tear my heart out and lose to a team they should beat, I think they've turned a corner.
Finally a new picker who is yet to adopt a moniker is going with: Auburn +9.5 over USC (of course I think we have this one in us this will be an indicator and a big game for us)
Wisconsin -9.0 over Nebraska (I'm going against you and going with my only non-upset pick on this one Wisconsin's running game is just too good)
Air Force +3.0 over Navy (Tim Jefferson is a Woodward grad and I know navy's triple option is good but T.J. is a game changer)
Detroit +1.0 over Dallas (I may not be a big fan of the NFL but I can't believe that they picked a pansy of a quarterback in Romo to beat the stacked d-line at Detroit. Even if my boy Nick doesn't play)
For all the Big Book of Guesses picks - see the Week 5 Handy Dandy Bettors Guide below:
| Week 5 Bettors Guide.xls |
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