My apologies for last week - I was working and got the picks and analyses out late. And a bigger apology for the picks themselves. They reflected the lack of preparation. Work is just going to have to know that there has to be time allowed for the Big Book of Guesses.
Week 3 Recap:
Michigan State +5.0 @ Notre Dame - OK, I promise not to take MSU as a Mega Bet again. I just plain jinxed them. And what was with the play calling? Did Inspector Gadget become the new Offensive Coordinator? MSU actually out gained the Irish 358 yds to 275 - but stats are for losers. The Spartans turned the ball over 3 times inside the ND red zone (fake FG - really?, interception and late game incomplete 4th down pass) while also giving up an 89 yd kickoff return. ND's defensive line destroyed a beat up Spartan offensive line winning 31-13 Loss
Hawaii -20.0 @ UNLV - Easily the worst pick of the season (so far that is). Hawaii fumbled the ball away 4 times including three straight times to start the second half in a miserable performance. The Warriors have reverted to old form of playing terrible on the mainland. The passing game needs to get untracked soon or its going to be a long season on the islands. Don't let the score fool you - UNLV is still a bad team but Hawaii was simply pathetic last week losing 40-20 as 20 point favorites LOSS
Detroit -7.5 vs Kansas City - Detroit kept the Mega Bets from being a total wash out for the week as the Lions totally dismantled the hapless Chiefs 48-3. It was the largest margin of victory ever for the Lions during the regular season - surpassing its 44-0 beat down of the expansion Jaguars in 1995. The Chiefs have been outscored by 79 points in its first 2 games - the most ever for a returning division champion. Stafford threw for 4 TDs including 2 to Calvin Johnson while Kansas City turned the ball over 6 times. A few more games like this and the Chiefs can start making tee times for December. WIN
Week 3 Recap:
Michigan State +5.0 @ Notre Dame - OK, I promise not to take MSU as a Mega Bet again. I just plain jinxed them. And what was with the play calling? Did Inspector Gadget become the new Offensive Coordinator? MSU actually out gained the Irish 358 yds to 275 - but stats are for losers. The Spartans turned the ball over 3 times inside the ND red zone (fake FG - really?, interception and late game incomplete 4th down pass) while also giving up an 89 yd kickoff return. ND's defensive line destroyed a beat up Spartan offensive line winning 31-13 Loss
Hawaii -20.0 @ UNLV - Easily the worst pick of the season (so far that is). Hawaii fumbled the ball away 4 times including three straight times to start the second half in a miserable performance. The Warriors have reverted to old form of playing terrible on the mainland. The passing game needs to get untracked soon or its going to be a long season on the islands. Don't let the score fool you - UNLV is still a bad team but Hawaii was simply pathetic last week losing 40-20 as 20 point favorites LOSS
Detroit -7.5 vs Kansas City - Detroit kept the Mega Bets from being a total wash out for the week as the Lions totally dismantled the hapless Chiefs 48-3. It was the largest margin of victory ever for the Lions during the regular season - surpassing its 44-0 beat down of the expansion Jaguars in 1995. The Chiefs have been outscored by 79 points in its first 2 games - the most ever for a returning division champion. Stafford threw for 4 TDs including 2 to Calvin Johnson while Kansas City turned the ball over 6 times. A few more games like this and the Chiefs can start making tee times for December. WIN
Overall, the BBofG went 31-34-3 for the week bringing the season record to 88-79-6 or 53%. The Mega Bets are now 5-4 or 56% which will make some money in the sportsbook. Not bad for the beginning of the year.
The Sax Man went 2-2 on wins with LSU -3.5 @Miss St and Houston -2.5 over the Dolphins. THe losses were MSU +5 vs ND and Auburn +3.5 vs Clemson. The sax Man moved to 4-3 on the season.
Before we get to week 4 - here are some interesting things from week 3. Of course, the big news is the announcement that Syracuse and Pitt decided to bolt for the ACC. While it doesn't move the needle much for football - it does make the ACC regain its stature from a BBall perspective. With the move, the Big East is now down to 6 teams. Rumors are that the Big East and Big 12 might merge to save the what's left of their conferences. There are also rumors that the Conference USA and Mountain West might merge into a super conference. Old rivalries be damned - its all about the money. Especially ESPN money.
I got to go to the Georgia Tech Kansas game Saturday. GT scored a TD on its very first play. In fact, they have scored a TD on the very first play every game this season! Now that's good game planning. Next up is North Carolina. Some how I think the streak ends. The Tar Heels are playing some good defense so far this year.
Auburn's 17 game winning streak and 14 game winning streak over Clemson came to a screeching halt as the lost to the purple Tigers 38-24. Auburn actually led 21-7 midway through the second quarter but Clemson scored 3 TD's within 7 minutes to take the lead for good. It was the third time Clemson hosted the defending national champion. They have won all three.
And watch this great catch by Domenik Hixon against the Rams Monday night. Circus Catch Talk about keeping your eye on the ball.
All right - it's time to start upping the ante with your betting. Teams and tendencies are starting to emerge and you can open the wallet just a bit. Don't go nutty. There are still teams that have not tested themselves (cough cough Wisconsin) but I will ramp up the betting a tad by going with 4 Mega Bets this week.
Week 4 Mega Bets:
East Carolina -13.0 vs UAB - Time to start betting against bad teams on the road. UAB is just plain awful losing to a lousy Tulane team 49-10. East Carolina is 0-2 but it was competitive against South Carolina and Virginia Tech. The Pirates are coming off a bye week and should pummel the Blazers.
LSU -6.0 @ West Virginia - LSU's defense is just too good for spread offenses. They manhandled Miss State and Oregon and will do the same against WVU. Granted the 'Neers are pass first but the Tigers defend he pass well too. Meanwhile, LSU will pound the ball down WVU's throat shortening the game. It's in Morgantown so should be a game for awhile but the fans will start heading home to their backyard stills somewhere in the third quarter.
Baltimore -4 @ St Louis - Playing the bounce back angle. The Ravens are coming off a stunning loss to Tennessee last week. St Louis is struggling on offense scoring just 29 points so far this year. They won't be able to turn things around against a fired up Ravens squad. Baltimore is 4-0 when a road favorite coming off a loss.
Atlanta +2 @ Tampa Bay - Atlanta has won five straight against division rival Tampa Bay yet are getting 2 points? Vegas must be counting on a let down for the Falcons after an emotional come back win against Michael Vick and the Eagles. But games between these two usually come down to who runs it better. Tampa Bay has the second worst run defense in the league so expect Michael Turner to have a solid game opening up the passing lanes for Roddy White and a potential break out game for Julio Jones.
The Doofus has also gone 6-1-1 with his over under picks so its time to put it to the test. I'll take a over under parlay with Florida Int'l/UL Lafayette under 50.5; Rutgers/Ohio under 50.5 and Maryland/Temple under 52.
The Sax Man is going with:
Oregon (-15) over Arizona: I'd feel a lot better about this pick if it were at 13.5. Still, Arizona can't run the ball, which means their defense will be on the field a lot this week. Oregon likes to run up the score against lesser Pac-12 teams, and Arizona is one of those teams. It'll be close at the half, but Oregon will open it up in the last two quarters.
Buffalo (+9) over New England: Every year at least one team per conference comes out of nowhere and makes the playoffs (or comes pretty darn close). Is this the Bills' year? Buffalo has lost 15 straight and 20 of 21 to the Pats, but its been getting closer and closer each time. Pats win, but the soon-to-be Toronto Bills cover.
Atlanta (+1) over Tampa Bay: Statement game for both teams. Both are 1-1 and coming off victories. Call me a homer, but I think the Bucs are a year or two away from winning these big games against teams like the Falcons. Atlanta "Rises Up" and wins a close one.
And here is your Week 4 Handy Dandy Bettors Guide
The Sax Man went 2-2 on wins with LSU -3.5 @Miss St and Houston -2.5 over the Dolphins. THe losses were MSU +5 vs ND and Auburn +3.5 vs Clemson. The sax Man moved to 4-3 on the season.
Before we get to week 4 - here are some interesting things from week 3. Of course, the big news is the announcement that Syracuse and Pitt decided to bolt for the ACC. While it doesn't move the needle much for football - it does make the ACC regain its stature from a BBall perspective. With the move, the Big East is now down to 6 teams. Rumors are that the Big East and Big 12 might merge to save the what's left of their conferences. There are also rumors that the Conference USA and Mountain West might merge into a super conference. Old rivalries be damned - its all about the money. Especially ESPN money.
I got to go to the Georgia Tech Kansas game Saturday. GT scored a TD on its very first play. In fact, they have scored a TD on the very first play every game this season! Now that's good game planning. Next up is North Carolina. Some how I think the streak ends. The Tar Heels are playing some good defense so far this year.
Auburn's 17 game winning streak and 14 game winning streak over Clemson came to a screeching halt as the lost to the purple Tigers 38-24. Auburn actually led 21-7 midway through the second quarter but Clemson scored 3 TD's within 7 minutes to take the lead for good. It was the third time Clemson hosted the defending national champion. They have won all three.
And watch this great catch by Domenik Hixon against the Rams Monday night. Circus Catch Talk about keeping your eye on the ball.
All right - it's time to start upping the ante with your betting. Teams and tendencies are starting to emerge and you can open the wallet just a bit. Don't go nutty. There are still teams that have not tested themselves (cough cough Wisconsin) but I will ramp up the betting a tad by going with 4 Mega Bets this week.
Week 4 Mega Bets:
East Carolina -13.0 vs UAB - Time to start betting against bad teams on the road. UAB is just plain awful losing to a lousy Tulane team 49-10. East Carolina is 0-2 but it was competitive against South Carolina and Virginia Tech. The Pirates are coming off a bye week and should pummel the Blazers.
LSU -6.0 @ West Virginia - LSU's defense is just too good for spread offenses. They manhandled Miss State and Oregon and will do the same against WVU. Granted the 'Neers are pass first but the Tigers defend he pass well too. Meanwhile, LSU will pound the ball down WVU's throat shortening the game. It's in Morgantown so should be a game for awhile but the fans will start heading home to their backyard stills somewhere in the third quarter.
Baltimore -4 @ St Louis - Playing the bounce back angle. The Ravens are coming off a stunning loss to Tennessee last week. St Louis is struggling on offense scoring just 29 points so far this year. They won't be able to turn things around against a fired up Ravens squad. Baltimore is 4-0 when a road favorite coming off a loss.
Atlanta +2 @ Tampa Bay - Atlanta has won five straight against division rival Tampa Bay yet are getting 2 points? Vegas must be counting on a let down for the Falcons after an emotional come back win against Michael Vick and the Eagles. But games between these two usually come down to who runs it better. Tampa Bay has the second worst run defense in the league so expect Michael Turner to have a solid game opening up the passing lanes for Roddy White and a potential break out game for Julio Jones.
The Doofus has also gone 6-1-1 with his over under picks so its time to put it to the test. I'll take a over under parlay with Florida Int'l/UL Lafayette under 50.5; Rutgers/Ohio under 50.5 and Maryland/Temple under 52.
The Sax Man is going with:
Oregon (-15) over Arizona: I'd feel a lot better about this pick if it were at 13.5. Still, Arizona can't run the ball, which means their defense will be on the field a lot this week. Oregon likes to run up the score against lesser Pac-12 teams, and Arizona is one of those teams. It'll be close at the half, but Oregon will open it up in the last two quarters.
Buffalo (+9) over New England: Every year at least one team per conference comes out of nowhere and makes the playoffs (or comes pretty darn close). Is this the Bills' year? Buffalo has lost 15 straight and 20 of 21 to the Pats, but its been getting closer and closer each time. Pats win, but the soon-to-be Toronto Bills cover.
Atlanta (+1) over Tampa Bay: Statement game for both teams. Both are 1-1 and coming off victories. Call me a homer, but I think the Bucs are a year or two away from winning these big games against teams like the Falcons. Atlanta "Rises Up" and wins a close one.
And here is your Week 4 Handy Dandy Bettors Guide
| Week 4 Bettors Guide.xls |
RSS Feed
