The Big Book of Guesses had an off weekend but not a disaster as it went 2-3
Week 10 recap:
Central Florida -1.5 @ Houston - UCF QB Godfrey threw for 294 yds and ran for another 105 as the Golden Knights held on to beat Houston 40-33 in an exciting back and forth game. The two teams combined for over 1,000 yds of offense. Houston cut the lead to 7 points with 5:46 left. UCF then drove to the Cougar 22 yd line only to miss a clinching
field goal with 1:56 left. Houston's final drive got the the UCF 46 where they were stopped on downs WIN
7 straight defeats and beat a ranked team for the first time since 2007. A&M jumped to a 12-0 lead by the end of the first half and then took the opening KO of the third quarter to the house for a 19-0 lead. OK rallied for 17 straight
points in the third and looked to be back in the game but then Bob Stoops made a bone headed call. After driving to the A&M 32 yd line he faked a FG which would have given the Sooners the lead. The pass was incomplete when the receiver dropped a perfectly thrown ball. A&M scored on its next 2 drives and won 33-19 LOSS
Illinois +3 @ Michigan - In the highest scoring game in UM history - its pathetic defense made the game winning play. Ron Zook also made a bone headed call late in the 4th quarter. Ahead 45-38 with 5:54 he decided to punt on 4th and 1 on his own 46 yd line rather than go for it against one of the worst defenses on Div 1-A. UM then scored on its next drive to tie the game and send it into OT. Neither defense could stop the other though 3OT's until UM's blitz on a 2 point try worked and UM won 67-65. I consoled myself with the fact ILL covered but more importantly
DickRod may come back for another year WIN
Missouri -4 @ Texas Tech - Not a good week for picking favorites in the Big 12 as they went 1-5 against the
spread. In fact, underdogs went 33-19-1 ATS last week. To top it off - 9 ranked teams including Mizzou (and OK above) went down - the most in one week this year. The Tigers scored TDs on its first two drives and were leading 17-3 late in the 2nd quarter. TT then switched QBs to Taylor Potts who lead the Red Raiders on three straight TD drives as they pulled out a 24-17 win LOSS
New England - 4 @ Cleveland - Should have stuck to my guns and passed on the NFL this week. Cleveland scored a FG on its opening drive. The Pats then muffed the ensuing KO which was recovered by the Browns who punched it in for a TD. The Pats then decided to take the rest of the game off and were thoroughly beaten 34-14. It was the first loss by NE to a team 4 games under .500 since 2004. LOSS
The Point Whore parlay went 1-2 as:
Washington +35 vs Oregon - I placed my bet too early as the line ended up 37.5 when Wash QB Locker didn't play. The Huskies hung around for a half and were only down 6-18 but Oregon came out smoking and won 53-16 LOSS
Hawaii +21 @ Boise State - I wasn't surprised that BSU hung 42 on Hawaii, in fact that normally would be low enough for Hawaii to cover as they are averaging 39 points a game against Div 1-A teams. The Bronco defense let up only 7, however, and the "don't call us Rainbow" Warriors lost 42-7 LOSS
New Mexico State +17.5 @ Utah State - NMSU actually lead this game 20-17 early in the 4th but USU scored the next 10 and won 27-22 in the Battle of the Aggies WIN
Upon further review it appears the BBofG has fallen into an old trap of taking too many visiting teams as all 5 Mega bets and 2 of 3 Point Whore Parlay picks in week 10 were visitors. I'll get that fixed.
For Week 11 I'll go with:
Central Florida -9.5 vs Southern Miss - I'll keep riding the UCF train. Despite giving up 33 to Houston last week UCF is still the best defense in the CUSA. Meanwhile their offense is clicking too - averaging 35 points a game. UCF has now won 7 straight against the spread - the longest streak in Div 1A. Add to that they are home and avenging a loss to USM last year - I'll give the points.
Marshall -17 vs Memphis - After struggling early in the season Marshall has back to back wins over UTEP and UAB with an outside chance to go bowling. Meanwhile, Memphis is battling for the title of worst team in Div 1A with New Mexico and Akron. Nothing like betting against real bad teams on the road.
Utah -5 @ ND - I'll take a Utah in a bounce back situation (even though on the road) taking on a ND squad without its QB Christ. They are also missing there startin DT, RB and TE. ND has also lost 11 straight games to ranked opponents with its last win against Penn St in 2006.
Tennessee -2 @ Miami - Tennessee is 3-1 on the road while Miami is 0-3 at home. TN QB Vince Young is day to day which may be affecting the spread but was last seen splitting practice time with backup QB Kerry Collins. Meanwhile, Randy Moss was last seen in Miami wearing a Pats uniform just before getting released. After a short stint in a Vikings uniform he returns to Miami wearing a Titans uni with a chance to get catches from Kerry Collins who last threw to him when they were wearing Raiders unis. Over in Miami they are switching Chads - sitting Henne for Pennington. Not a good sign.
For the Point Whore Parlay I'll take:
UL Monroe +32 @ LSU
SDSU +27 @ TCU
KSU +13 @ Missouri
There were only 2 double digit dogs at home this week BSU -34.5 @ Idaho and Oregon -19.5 @ Cal. Neither sounded appealing so I'll go with all roadies for the PWP