First Va Tech stuffed Pitt Another all day drinking, smoking football party fest on the Doofus Deck last weekend. The Spartans again got the day off to a great start with a big win over Indiana. But why do the Spartans seemed to always get stuck with noon games announced by Beth Mowins?
Then, Penn State’s 4 OT win over Michigan took the party to another level. Add in Mizzou’s upset of Georgia, a great LSU vs Florida game and a little NASCAR to boot and you got yourself a party!
And the party really gets going next weekend as it’s GO JUMBO!!!. And just in time my luck turned as I went 3-0 with all the spreads determined in the last couple of minutes and by less than a field goal. Hope I didn’t use up my all my luck for the GO JUMBO weekend. I’m going to need it.
Here’s how week 7 went down -
Week 7 Results:
Virginia Tech -9.0 vs Pitt - The Hokies were dominant defensively in the game but the offense settled for field
goals in many instances - including failing to get in the end zone with 1st and goal and about 3 minutes left. That field goal pushed the lead to 19-3 but Pittsburgh would score quickly, finding the end zone with two minutes to go in
the game. Down 19-9, getting the cover come down to a two point conversion.
Pitt QB Tom Savage dropped back - got sacked and fumbled. The Hokies nearly took it all the way back. Pitt failed to get the ensuing onside kick letting Va Tech ran out the clock. Final score Va Tech 19 Pitt 9 Win.
Then, Penn State’s 4 OT win over Michigan took the party to another level. Add in Mizzou’s upset of Georgia, a great LSU vs Florida game and a little NASCAR to boot and you got yourself a party!
And the party really gets going next weekend as it’s GO JUMBO!!!. And just in time my luck turned as I went 3-0 with all the spreads determined in the last couple of minutes and by less than a field goal. Hope I didn’t use up my all my luck for the GO JUMBO weekend. I’m going to need it.
Here’s how week 7 went down -
Week 7 Results:
Virginia Tech -9.0 vs Pitt - The Hokies were dominant defensively in the game but the offense settled for field
goals in many instances - including failing to get in the end zone with 1st and goal and about 3 minutes left. That field goal pushed the lead to 19-3 but Pittsburgh would score quickly, finding the end zone with two minutes to go in
the game. Down 19-9, getting the cover come down to a two point conversion.
Pitt QB Tom Savage dropped back - got sacked and fumbled. The Hokies nearly took it all the way back. Pitt failed to get the ensuing onside kick letting Va Tech ran out the clock. Final score Va Tech 19 Pitt 9 Win.
Then UCLA smoked Cal UCLA -24.5 vs Cal – Saturdays night cap was not settled until the wee hours of Sunday morning. But with a Mega bet on the line the Doofus muscled right through the effects of an all day party and watched the entire game.
UCLA led by just seven late in the second quarter against California but the Bruins added another touchdown right before the half. Add in a pair of short field goals in the third quarter and UCLA was still short of the spread with a 30-10 entering the fourth quarter.
The Bruins finally got ahead of the spread with a touchdown pass with less than five minutes to go. But the Bears were not ready to go away. Driving late they came up empty on a late drive inside the UCLA 15. Avoiding the dreaded back door cover the Bruins won 37 -10 WIN
Baltimore +2.5 vs Green Bay – The injuries mounted and the offenses struggled in this game. Green Bay
kept Baltimore out of the end zone for three quarters. Finally in the 4th quarter, Joe Flacco got on track. First he tossed an 11 yard TD pass that pulled the Ravens within 6 16-10. Green Bay countered with a FG. All I needed was a TD to get a back door cover.
Joe came through with a 6 play 90 yard scoring drive (which included a 4th and half a mile conversion) to close the gap to 19-17 with just over two minutes left and three timeouts.
But, as the Sax Man pointed out - now I was in a pickle. Baltimore would be using their timeouts to get the ball back which might allow Green Bay to get in FG position. Sure enough - DoubleCheck himself connects with Jay Finley who sprints to the Raven 21. Now I’m rooting for either a quick FG or for Green Bay to get a first down but not
TD and run out the clock.
Green Bay gets it to the Baltimore 13 with 3rd and 2. Get the first down!!. In a perfect run Eddie Lacy goes 4 yards, gets the first and lays down. The Packers then run out the clock and I get the cover. Final score Packers 19 Baltimore 17 WIN
The situational games still are converting at a winning rate. Here is how all the situational games went
last week:
UCLA led by just seven late in the second quarter against California but the Bruins added another touchdown right before the half. Add in a pair of short field goals in the third quarter and UCLA was still short of the spread with a 30-10 entering the fourth quarter.
The Bruins finally got ahead of the spread with a touchdown pass with less than five minutes to go. But the Bears were not ready to go away. Driving late they came up empty on a late drive inside the UCLA 15. Avoiding the dreaded back door cover the Bruins won 37 -10 WIN
Baltimore +2.5 vs Green Bay – The injuries mounted and the offenses struggled in this game. Green Bay
kept Baltimore out of the end zone for three quarters. Finally in the 4th quarter, Joe Flacco got on track. First he tossed an 11 yard TD pass that pulled the Ravens within 6 16-10. Green Bay countered with a FG. All I needed was a TD to get a back door cover.
Joe came through with a 6 play 90 yard scoring drive (which included a 4th and half a mile conversion) to close the gap to 19-17 with just over two minutes left and three timeouts.
But, as the Sax Man pointed out - now I was in a pickle. Baltimore would be using their timeouts to get the ball back which might allow Green Bay to get in FG position. Sure enough - DoubleCheck himself connects with Jay Finley who sprints to the Raven 21. Now I’m rooting for either a quick FG or for Green Bay to get a first down but not
TD and run out the clock.
Green Bay gets it to the Baltimore 13 with 3rd and 2. Get the first down!!. In a perfect run Eddie Lacy goes 4 yards, gets the first and lays down. The Packers then run out the clock and I get the cover. Final score Packers 19 Baltimore 17 WIN
The situational games still are converting at a winning rate. Here is how all the situational games went
last week:
And when Baltimore pulled a back door cover out of its butt Week 7 Revenge games
Va Tech -9.0 vs Pitt – Va Tech 19 Pitt 9 Win
Army -8.0 vs Eastern Michigan – Army 50 Eastern 25
Win
UNLV -9.0 vs Hawaii – UNLV 39 Hawaii 37 Loss
UCLA -24.5 vs Cal – UCLA 37 Cal 10 Win
LSU -7.0 vs Florida – LSU 17 Fla 6 Win
Bounce Back games
Utah State +5.5 vs Boise State - Boise 34 USU 23 Loss
Maryland -6.0 vs Virginia – Maryland 27 Virginia 26 Loss
Northwestern +10.0 @ Wisconsin – Wisconsin 35 NW 6 Loss
TCU -25.0 vs Kansas – TCU 27 Kansas 17 Loss
Arizona State -26.5 vs Colorado – ASU 54 Colorado 13 Win
Washington +13.5 vs Oregon – 45 Washington 24 Loss
Let Down games
Michigan State -10.0 vs Indiana (2nd team listed is in let down situation) - MSU 42 Indiana 28 Win
Kent State +14.5 @ Ball State – Ball State 27 Kent State 24 Win
So overall 7-6 for the situational. It seems as though I am over reading the bounce back scenarios. Not
only that- I missed one entirely in Penn State coming off a loss to Indiana and turning round and beating
Michigan at home. Going forward I will be more selective factoring in a home situation (NW was away) and games that the home team will be fired up for.
The revenge games and let down games went 6-1! Bring on more of those.
Va Tech -9.0 vs Pitt – Va Tech 19 Pitt 9 Win
Army -8.0 vs Eastern Michigan – Army 50 Eastern 25
Win
UNLV -9.0 vs Hawaii – UNLV 39 Hawaii 37 Loss
UCLA -24.5 vs Cal – UCLA 37 Cal 10 Win
LSU -7.0 vs Florida – LSU 17 Fla 6 Win
Bounce Back games
Utah State +5.5 vs Boise State - Boise 34 USU 23 Loss
Maryland -6.0 vs Virginia – Maryland 27 Virginia 26 Loss
Northwestern +10.0 @ Wisconsin – Wisconsin 35 NW 6 Loss
TCU -25.0 vs Kansas – TCU 27 Kansas 17 Loss
Arizona State -26.5 vs Colorado – ASU 54 Colorado 13 Win
Washington +13.5 vs Oregon – 45 Washington 24 Loss
Let Down games
Michigan State -10.0 vs Indiana (2nd team listed is in let down situation) - MSU 42 Indiana 28 Win
Kent State +14.5 @ Ball State – Ball State 27 Kent State 24 Win
So overall 7-6 for the situational. It seems as though I am over reading the bounce back scenarios. Not
only that- I missed one entirely in Penn State coming off a loss to Indiana and turning round and beating
Michigan at home. Going forward I will be more selective factoring in a home situation (NW was away) and games that the home team will be fired up for.
The revenge games and let down games went 6-1! Bring on more of those.
It led to one content Doofus For Week 8 the situational games are
Week 7 Revenge games
Miami (FL) -9.5 @ North Carolina
Baylor -33.0 vs Iowa State
Bounce Back games
Michigan-9.0 vs Indiana (but I never bet on Michigan)
Northwestern-12.5 vs Minnesota (Cats are coming off a tough two game stretch)
Oklahoma -23.0 @ Kansas – OK is away but Kansas is really bad. Kansas played TCU tough on the road and may be in for a bit of a let down too.
Stanford -6.0 vs UCLA – great match up
Let Down games (2nd team listed is in let down situation)
Northern Illinois -16.0 @ Central Michigan
Buffalo -20.5 vs UMass
Florida -3.0 @ Missouri (Mizzou lost their QB to boot in last weeks win over UGA)
Arizona -4.0 vs Utah
The Sheriff got back to his winning ways going 2-1 with:
Washington (+14) over Oregon – Final score – Oregon 45 Washington 24 LOSS
Utah (+9) over Stanford – Final score Utah 27 Stanford 21 WIN great great pick
UCLA (-24.5) over Cal. Final score UCLA 37 Cal 10 WIN
So factoring in the situation and analyzing the teams here are the
Week 8 Mega Bets
Florida -8.0 @ Missouri – According the the experts there won’t be much drop off from injured Missouri QB James
Franklin and highly touted freshman Maty Mauk. But it’s one thing to look good in scrimmage and a whole ‘nother thing to excel against a the number 3 Gator defense in a key SEC east match up.
Florida needs this game after dropping a tough one to LSU last weekend. Missouri struggles as a home dog going
2-5 against the spread since 2006. Both teams are dinged up (Mizzo is also down their top CB) but UF has more depth and pulls one out in a low scoring affair.
Buffalo -20.5 vs Massachussetts – Buffalo has been stampeding through the MAC this year beating up on the dregs of the league by an average score of 39-9. And UMass is squarely in the category of a dreg. They finally got a win last week beating an even worse Miami (OH). It was the Minutemen’s first win of the season having not even won against Div 1AA Maine. I’m counting on a let down by UMass and ading in loving to bet against
bad teams on the road. Factor in getting the hook with the spread a 20.5 and the Doofus is all in.
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta under 43.0 – The number of injuries hitting Atlanta is getting comical. They are without Julio
Jones and Steven Jackson. Roddy White has a hammy. That leaves the Falcon offense down to Matty Ice throwing to Tony Gonzalez. For all the problems the Bucs have – the defense is pretty good and should contain a no dimensional Falcon offense.
Atlanta’s defense is also being rocked by injuries. With it the run defense is just plain awful. Buc RB Doug Martin will get plenty of carries – taking time off the clock and a low scoring game.
With one week to go ‘til Vegas I need a final tune up. So I’m also going to ramp up the number of Mini Megas even though the track record is not too good.
Week 8 Mini Mega bets
Memphis -3.5 vs SMU
Army +2.5 @ Temple (Gotta come through Dwink!)
Ohio -16.5 @ Eastern Michigan
Texas State -17.0 vs Georgia State
Buffalo +7.5 @ Miami
And I'll try a Point Whore Parlay too with
Iowa +18.0 @ Ohio State
Iowa State +33/0 @ Baylor
Washington State +40.0 @ Oregon
And here are the Sheriff’s Week 8 wagers.
UCLA (+6) over Stanford. The sheriff likes UCLA to win this game outright. Stanford is not as strong as I thought, and UCLA is ready to take that next step. Should be a great game.
Washington (+3) over Arizona State. After losing back-to-back games against Stanford and Oregon, this
is the most important game in Washington’s season. If they lose, they are on their way to another 7-6 season, like the last two years. But I think Washington is better than that – the Huskies win in the desert.
Oregon State (-11) over California. Hate to pick against my Bears two weeks in a row, but this is like taking candy from a baby. Can’t believe the spread is this low.
For all the Big Book of Guesses picks, spreads, records ATS and much more here is the Week 8 Bettors Guide
Week 7 Revenge games
Miami (FL) -9.5 @ North Carolina
Baylor -33.0 vs Iowa State
Bounce Back games
Michigan-9.0 vs Indiana (but I never bet on Michigan)
Northwestern-12.5 vs Minnesota (Cats are coming off a tough two game stretch)
Oklahoma -23.0 @ Kansas – OK is away but Kansas is really bad. Kansas played TCU tough on the road and may be in for a bit of a let down too.
Stanford -6.0 vs UCLA – great match up
Let Down games (2nd team listed is in let down situation)
Northern Illinois -16.0 @ Central Michigan
Buffalo -20.5 vs UMass
Florida -3.0 @ Missouri (Mizzou lost their QB to boot in last weeks win over UGA)
Arizona -4.0 vs Utah
The Sheriff got back to his winning ways going 2-1 with:
Washington (+14) over Oregon – Final score – Oregon 45 Washington 24 LOSS
Utah (+9) over Stanford – Final score Utah 27 Stanford 21 WIN great great pick
UCLA (-24.5) over Cal. Final score UCLA 37 Cal 10 WIN
So factoring in the situation and analyzing the teams here are the
Week 8 Mega Bets
Florida -8.0 @ Missouri – According the the experts there won’t be much drop off from injured Missouri QB James
Franklin and highly touted freshman Maty Mauk. But it’s one thing to look good in scrimmage and a whole ‘nother thing to excel against a the number 3 Gator defense in a key SEC east match up.
Florida needs this game after dropping a tough one to LSU last weekend. Missouri struggles as a home dog going
2-5 against the spread since 2006. Both teams are dinged up (Mizzo is also down their top CB) but UF has more depth and pulls one out in a low scoring affair.
Buffalo -20.5 vs Massachussetts – Buffalo has been stampeding through the MAC this year beating up on the dregs of the league by an average score of 39-9. And UMass is squarely in the category of a dreg. They finally got a win last week beating an even worse Miami (OH). It was the Minutemen’s first win of the season having not even won against Div 1AA Maine. I’m counting on a let down by UMass and ading in loving to bet against
bad teams on the road. Factor in getting the hook with the spread a 20.5 and the Doofus is all in.
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta under 43.0 – The number of injuries hitting Atlanta is getting comical. They are without Julio
Jones and Steven Jackson. Roddy White has a hammy. That leaves the Falcon offense down to Matty Ice throwing to Tony Gonzalez. For all the problems the Bucs have – the defense is pretty good and should contain a no dimensional Falcon offense.
Atlanta’s defense is also being rocked by injuries. With it the run defense is just plain awful. Buc RB Doug Martin will get plenty of carries – taking time off the clock and a low scoring game.
With one week to go ‘til Vegas I need a final tune up. So I’m also going to ramp up the number of Mini Megas even though the track record is not too good.
Week 8 Mini Mega bets
Memphis -3.5 vs SMU
Army +2.5 @ Temple (Gotta come through Dwink!)
Ohio -16.5 @ Eastern Michigan
Texas State -17.0 vs Georgia State
Buffalo +7.5 @ Miami
And I'll try a Point Whore Parlay too with
Iowa +18.0 @ Ohio State
Iowa State +33/0 @ Baylor
Washington State +40.0 @ Oregon
And here are the Sheriff’s Week 8 wagers.
UCLA (+6) over Stanford. The sheriff likes UCLA to win this game outright. Stanford is not as strong as I thought, and UCLA is ready to take that next step. Should be a great game.
Washington (+3) over Arizona State. After losing back-to-back games against Stanford and Oregon, this
is the most important game in Washington’s season. If they lose, they are on their way to another 7-6 season, like the last two years. But I think Washington is better than that – the Huskies win in the desert.
Oregon State (-11) over California. Hate to pick against my Bears two weeks in a row, but this is like taking candy from a baby. Can’t believe the spread is this low.
For all the Big Book of Guesses picks, spreads, records ATS and much more here is the Week 8 Bettors Guide
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Remember – next weekend Oct 26th is GO JUMBO at the LVH. Woz and I will be there early to save you a seat.
