After a two straight weeks of one point losses I decided I needed a better pre-game speech.
This one should work great. The Sax Man and Mrs Bruce are geeked!
This one should work great. The Sax Man and Mrs Bruce are geeked!
LSU and Florida your QBs blow The Wreck went on to beat Miami (FL)
Fortunately, I am still eligible to play. Appears as though no one wants to pay me to sign memorabilia. And I decided to pass on “smoking a little weed” before my court appointed drug test.
Lots of good games on tap this weekend. Some of my favorites are
Mississippi +1.5 @ Texas A&M – Ole Miss is still partying after last week. Game Day was in the Grove (and yes, it is the best tailgating in the world), Katy Perry was there throwing corn dogs. What a great time. Even better, they beat Bama in a program win. Fans have donated over $80,000 to pay the SEC fines for storming the field plus damages to the field and carting off the goal posts.
So the big question is – can they stay focused to take on A&M in College Station. Mississippi is the better all around team particularly on pass defense. The Rebs are 9th overall helped by 10 picks over the last five games. And it was three picks that killed the Aggies in their loss 48-31 loss to Mississippi State last week
A&M will be more focused and Ole Miss will need a half to get over their hangover before the Rebs win in a squeeker. I’ll take Ole Miss and the points.
LSU -1.5 @ Florida – Raise your hand if you thought that these two teams would be hanging with the bottom feeders in their division. OK, I believe you if you said maybe Florida. But, no, put your hand back down. You didn’t have LSU down there too.
Two teams are headed in the wrong direction needing a win to turn things around. LSU just got its door blown off by Auburn with an offense that failed to convert on any of its 13 third down attempts.
Meanwhile Florida struggles for three quarter against Tennessee with QB Jeff Driskel leading the way, switches quarterbacks going with Treon Harris who leads a great comeback to win. Harris promptly gets suspended for a sexual assault so it’s back to Driskell.
All the quarterback suck in this game so I’ll take under.
Fortunately, I am still eligible to play. Appears as though no one wants to pay me to sign memorabilia. And I decided to pass on “smoking a little weed” before my court appointed drug test.
Lots of good games on tap this weekend. Some of my favorites are
Mississippi +1.5 @ Texas A&M – Ole Miss is still partying after last week. Game Day was in the Grove (and yes, it is the best tailgating in the world), Katy Perry was there throwing corn dogs. What a great time. Even better, they beat Bama in a program win. Fans have donated over $80,000 to pay the SEC fines for storming the field plus damages to the field and carting off the goal posts.
So the big question is – can they stay focused to take on A&M in College Station. Mississippi is the better all around team particularly on pass defense. The Rebs are 9th overall helped by 10 picks over the last five games. And it was three picks that killed the Aggies in their loss 48-31 loss to Mississippi State last week
A&M will be more focused and Ole Miss will need a half to get over their hangover before the Rebs win in a squeeker. I’ll take Ole Miss and the points.
LSU -1.5 @ Florida – Raise your hand if you thought that these two teams would be hanging with the bottom feeders in their division. OK, I believe you if you said maybe Florida. But, no, put your hand back down. You didn’t have LSU down there too.
Two teams are headed in the wrong direction needing a win to turn things around. LSU just got its door blown off by Auburn with an offense that failed to convert on any of its 13 third down attempts.
Meanwhile Florida struggles for three quarter against Tennessee with QB Jeff Driskel leading the way, switches quarterbacks going with Treon Harris who leads a great comeback to win. Harris promptly gets suspended for a sexual assault so it’s back to Driskell.
All the quarterback suck in this game so I’ll take under.
It's pound and ground with the Razorbacks Bama -10.0 @ Arkansas – Going into last week it was all about how Lane Kiffin has rejuvenated the Tide offense and along with their usual stout defense it was beat Auburn and go to the playoffs. Now? Bama is coming off an uncharacteristically sloppy game against Ole Miss last week. Turnovers, special teams miscues, penalties all lead to the most amazing day in Mississippi in a long time
Arkansas is starting to look like a real Bret Bieliema team now. Pound and ground with a massive offensive line. Keep the game close and with a break here or there – pull off the upset.
I’m going to play the bounce back angle here taking Bama and laying the points. They will be focused after the sloppy loss. Arkansas is too one dimensional and Nick will make the Hogs pay. Bieliema will have to wait another week for his first SEC win.
Oregon -2.5 @ UCLA – Two more teams coming off upsets. Oregon got tagged by Arizona (at home no less) while UCLA dropped one to a mediocre Utah team (also at home).
These teams were the favorites to meet in the Pac 12 championship and an almost guaranteed slot in the playoffs
Now they have used up their lifelines. Another slip up and its which non Jan 1 bowl are they playing for. Oregon’s porous offensive line finally caught up to them as Arizona sacked QB Marcus Mariota seven times last week.
UCLA was even worse as QB Brett Hundley was sacked 10 times last week.
These are the two of the best QBs in the game with Mariota ranked first in QB rating while Hundley is fifth., But it doesn’t really matter if both of them are picking themselves off the turf. I’ll take another under here (69.0) and Oregon to cover the slim spread.
Arkansas is starting to look like a real Bret Bieliema team now. Pound and ground with a massive offensive line. Keep the game close and with a break here or there – pull off the upset.
I’m going to play the bounce back angle here taking Bama and laying the points. They will be focused after the sloppy loss. Arkansas is too one dimensional and Nick will make the Hogs pay. Bieliema will have to wait another week for his first SEC win.
Oregon -2.5 @ UCLA – Two more teams coming off upsets. Oregon got tagged by Arizona (at home no less) while UCLA dropped one to a mediocre Utah team (also at home).
These teams were the favorites to meet in the Pac 12 championship and an almost guaranteed slot in the playoffs
Now they have used up their lifelines. Another slip up and its which non Jan 1 bowl are they playing for. Oregon’s porous offensive line finally caught up to them as Arizona sacked QB Marcus Mariota seven times last week.
UCLA was even worse as QB Brett Hundley was sacked 10 times last week.
These are the two of the best QBs in the game with Mariota ranked first in QB rating while Hundley is fifth., But it doesn’t really matter if both of them are picking themselves off the turf. I’ll take another under here (69.0) and Oregon to cover the slim spread.
Cats upset the Badgers Northwestern +4.0 @ Minnesota – Is this for the Big Ten West? Illinois and Purdue suck, Indiana is flawed, Wisconsin and Iowa are beatable. Northwestern showed just how one dimensional Wisconsin is in beating them 20-14 as 8 point dogs. The Cats teed off on Badger RB Melvin Gordon holding him to 61 yards and then waited for the Bedgers horrific QBs try to beat them. Four picks later and Northwestern comes away with the win.
Minnesota is coming off a bye. Two weeks prior they were getting the Little Brown Jug back from Michigan. But Minnesota is somewhat similar to Wisconsin. They rely on the running game behind RB David Cobb. Not as good as Gordon but solid. The QB play while good in much better that the Badgers QB play.
I’ll root for the Cats but I’m picking the Goofers to cover coming off the bye and the Cats coming down from the high off beating Wisconsin.
USC -2.5 @ Arizona – Arizona got their signature win last week in upsetting Oregon. USC meanwhile is trying to recover from a Hail Mary loss to Arizona State.
I’m going with the Sheriff on this one (see below). USC is more smoke than fire while Arizona seems to be headed in the right direction.
TCU +8.5 @ Baylor – Now that Oklahoma has been beaten this game is for the lead in the Big 12. Last week, TCU installed an up tempo offense this year which is paying off but it was the defense that beat the Sooners. Two picks in the game were the difference. One a 46 yard pick six the second sealed the game.
Baylor is being Baylor again. Goosing the offensive stats before conference play and then returning to earth but still winning when they start playing with the big boys.
This spread is way too big. I’ll take the Horny Toads to cover.
But those are just for fun picks. Just a few quatloos wagered.
Time for the Big Boy wagers - and I’m still fired up from my pregame, so I’m going with four Mega Bets this week.
Minnesota is coming off a bye. Two weeks prior they were getting the Little Brown Jug back from Michigan. But Minnesota is somewhat similar to Wisconsin. They rely on the running game behind RB David Cobb. Not as good as Gordon but solid. The QB play while good in much better that the Badgers QB play.
I’ll root for the Cats but I’m picking the Goofers to cover coming off the bye and the Cats coming down from the high off beating Wisconsin.
USC -2.5 @ Arizona – Arizona got their signature win last week in upsetting Oregon. USC meanwhile is trying to recover from a Hail Mary loss to Arizona State.
I’m going with the Sheriff on this one (see below). USC is more smoke than fire while Arizona seems to be headed in the right direction.
TCU +8.5 @ Baylor – Now that Oklahoma has been beaten this game is for the lead in the Big 12. Last week, TCU installed an up tempo offense this year which is paying off but it was the defense that beat the Sooners. Two picks in the game were the difference. One a 46 yard pick six the second sealed the game.
Baylor is being Baylor again. Goosing the offensive stats before conference play and then returning to earth but still winning when they start playing with the big boys.
This spread is way too big. I’ll take the Horny Toads to cover.
But those are just for fun picks. Just a few quatloos wagered.
Time for the Big Boy wagers - and I’m still fired up from my pregame, so I’m going with four Mega Bets this week.
Kansas QB Cozart sucks too Week 7 Mega Bets
East Carolina -15.5 @ South Florida – East Carolina is the best team outside the Power Five conferences. As expected under HC Ruffin McNeil, the Pirates are all about offense. This year they are ranked fourth overall. The Pirates is led by QB Shane Corden. Corden has been on fire lately, passing for more than 400 yards for three straight games while tossing 11 TDs vs 1 pick. ECU has been blasting away at opponents including SMU (45-24) and North Carolina (70-41)
South Florida was left a mess by Skip Holtz a couple of years back and has still not recovered. They have only one victory over an FBS team this year – lowly UConn. And if you are facing ECU you better not give up points. Ooops, the Bulls are 87th in points allowed. Shellackings by NC State (49-17) and Wisconsin (27-10) don’t help. The Pirates are far better on offense then those two.
ECU has never beaten South Florida. They get their first victory in a big fashion.
Oklahoma State -20.5 @ Kansas – Skip Holtz may have left a mess at South Florida but ‘Ol Front Butt left an ever bigger pile of dog crap at Kansas. The alleged QB guru is leaving a situation with a QB controversy. Starter Montell Cozart is competing to keep his job after throwing more picks (seven) than TDs (five). His QB rating is ranked 114th. With bad QB play, teams are loading the box. Last week, KU averaged less than two yards per carry against West Virginia. A team not noted for defense.
OSU has been on fire offensively this year averaging over 40 points over the last four games. Kansas has scored 41 total points against their four FBS opponents.
The Cowboys typically dominate the JayHawks. Over the last four years the average score is 45-15. This will be an average game. OSU rolls.
Auburn -3.0 @ Mississippi State – Sticking with a good thing here. Pay no attention to the polls. Auburn is playing the best football in the land.
The hype will be about the quarterbacks in this game. Auburn’s Nick Marshall has been tearing it up this year. He has 8 TDs to 1 pick and is now getting his feet involved with over 100 yards for 2 straight games and two more TDs.
The other MSU’s Dak Prescott has even better stats with 13 TDs, against 2 picks while running for 455 yards and 6 TDs.
But it’s the defenses that will decide this game. Advantage Auburn. The Tiger’s are ninth in scoring defense and 14th overall. MSU? Try 23rd and 86th.
MSU is coming off the high of back to back wins over LSU and Texas A&M. Can they repeat that performance against an even better Auburn team? For Auburn, big games in the SEC are another day in the park. The Bulldogs will start out fired up behind a Game Day crowd. Then reality will kick in and the Tigers will roll.
San Diego -7.0 @ Oakland – Last week I laid a big spread only to get beat. But New Orleans is still struggling. Not the case with the Chargers. They are playing the best ball in the NFL outside of Seattle.
The Chargers are on a roll with three straight double digit victories including pounding the Jets 31-0 last week. QB Phil Rivers is playing much better since the Chargers changed head coaches last year. He has 12 TDs to 2 picks so far this year. And Antonio Gates is playing much better too grabbing 5 of those TDs.
But it’s the defense that has made the biggest improvement. This year they are allowing the least amount of points in the league and third least yards.
Oakland is its usual pathetic team. They are last in the running the ball putting pressure on rookie QB Derek Carr. He’s awful. The Oakland defense is also last in defending the run. Charger RB has been a nice surprise this year and will roll.
This could be a trap game for the Chargers with the Chiefs and Broncos up next but San Diego hates Oakland. They will be focused in a blow out.
I’m also going with 6, yes 6, Mini Megas
Penn State Pick ‘em @ Michigan
West Virginia -6.0 @ Texas Tech
Florida International +11.5 @ UT San Antonio
Buffalo -14.0 @ Eastern Michigan
Air Force +7.0 @ Utah State
Miami +3.5 vs Green Bay
And rather than a Point Whore Parlay I'll go with an Under Parlay with
Tulane vs UConn under 45.5
Louisville @ Clemson under 51.5
Houston @ Memphis under 49.5
LSU @ Florida under 47.0
Oregon @ UCLA under 69.0
The Sheriff has weighed in too
East Carolina -15.5 @ South Florida – East Carolina is the best team outside the Power Five conferences. As expected under HC Ruffin McNeil, the Pirates are all about offense. This year they are ranked fourth overall. The Pirates is led by QB Shane Corden. Corden has been on fire lately, passing for more than 400 yards for three straight games while tossing 11 TDs vs 1 pick. ECU has been blasting away at opponents including SMU (45-24) and North Carolina (70-41)
South Florida was left a mess by Skip Holtz a couple of years back and has still not recovered. They have only one victory over an FBS team this year – lowly UConn. And if you are facing ECU you better not give up points. Ooops, the Bulls are 87th in points allowed. Shellackings by NC State (49-17) and Wisconsin (27-10) don’t help. The Pirates are far better on offense then those two.
ECU has never beaten South Florida. They get their first victory in a big fashion.
Oklahoma State -20.5 @ Kansas – Skip Holtz may have left a mess at South Florida but ‘Ol Front Butt left an ever bigger pile of dog crap at Kansas. The alleged QB guru is leaving a situation with a QB controversy. Starter Montell Cozart is competing to keep his job after throwing more picks (seven) than TDs (five). His QB rating is ranked 114th. With bad QB play, teams are loading the box. Last week, KU averaged less than two yards per carry against West Virginia. A team not noted for defense.
OSU has been on fire offensively this year averaging over 40 points over the last four games. Kansas has scored 41 total points against their four FBS opponents.
The Cowboys typically dominate the JayHawks. Over the last four years the average score is 45-15. This will be an average game. OSU rolls.
Auburn -3.0 @ Mississippi State – Sticking with a good thing here. Pay no attention to the polls. Auburn is playing the best football in the land.
The hype will be about the quarterbacks in this game. Auburn’s Nick Marshall has been tearing it up this year. He has 8 TDs to 1 pick and is now getting his feet involved with over 100 yards for 2 straight games and two more TDs.
The other MSU’s Dak Prescott has even better stats with 13 TDs, against 2 picks while running for 455 yards and 6 TDs.
But it’s the defenses that will decide this game. Advantage Auburn. The Tiger’s are ninth in scoring defense and 14th overall. MSU? Try 23rd and 86th.
MSU is coming off the high of back to back wins over LSU and Texas A&M. Can they repeat that performance against an even better Auburn team? For Auburn, big games in the SEC are another day in the park. The Bulldogs will start out fired up behind a Game Day crowd. Then reality will kick in and the Tigers will roll.
San Diego -7.0 @ Oakland – Last week I laid a big spread only to get beat. But New Orleans is still struggling. Not the case with the Chargers. They are playing the best ball in the NFL outside of Seattle.
The Chargers are on a roll with three straight double digit victories including pounding the Jets 31-0 last week. QB Phil Rivers is playing much better since the Chargers changed head coaches last year. He has 12 TDs to 2 picks so far this year. And Antonio Gates is playing much better too grabbing 5 of those TDs.
But it’s the defense that has made the biggest improvement. This year they are allowing the least amount of points in the league and third least yards.
Oakland is its usual pathetic team. They are last in the running the ball putting pressure on rookie QB Derek Carr. He’s awful. The Oakland defense is also last in defending the run. Charger RB has been a nice surprise this year and will roll.
This could be a trap game for the Chargers with the Chiefs and Broncos up next but San Diego hates Oakland. They will be focused in a blow out.
I’m also going with 6, yes 6, Mini Megas
Penn State Pick ‘em @ Michigan
West Virginia -6.0 @ Texas Tech
Florida International +11.5 @ UT San Antonio
Buffalo -14.0 @ Eastern Michigan
Air Force +7.0 @ Utah State
Miami +3.5 vs Green Bay
And rather than a Point Whore Parlay I'll go with an Under Parlay with
Tulane vs UConn under 45.5
Louisville @ Clemson under 51.5
Houston @ Memphis under 49.5
LSU @ Florida under 47.0
Oregon @ UCLA under 69.0
The Sheriff has weighed in too
Katy Perry was the only one to pick Ole Miss The Sheriff vows to outpick Katy Perry this week, but it will tough given the unpredictable nature of PAC-12 football this year. The distance between the best team (Arizona) and the worst team (Colorado) has never been closer. One week UCLA is beating ASU 62-27 on the road, and the next they can’t beat a Utah team at home that is playing its backup QB. So the Sheriff is taking the points this week in more ways than one. And if you decide Katy’s picks and beautiful breasts are more worthy of your hard-earned money than the Sheriff’s dubious picks, I couldn’t blame you.
OVER (71.5) Cal/Washington. I really want to bet on my first-place Cal Bears because I think this is a winnable game, but I don’t want to jinx them. Washington has a pretty tough defense so I’m expecting “only” 3 TDs and 300 yards from Jared Goff in this game instead of his usual 5 TDs and 500 yards. The Bears won’t score as much as they usually do, but I know the Cal defense will give up some points of their own so I still like the OVER. When your last 3 games are 60-59, 59-56, and 49-45, the OVER seems like the smart way to go.
Arizona (+2.5) over USC. This line is surprising to me because the game is in the Desert but if Vegas wants to give me points, I will take it. I was a little worried that Arizona would succumb to the pressure and expectations of being in first place, but this line should keep that chip on its shoulder. And anybody who saw that Oregon game last week knows that it was no fluke – Rich Rod has got himself a fine football team. The Wildcats will win.
UCLA (+2.5) over Oregon. A week ago this was looking to be the PAC-12 game of the year between two Top-10 teams. Now look at it. Both teams suffered devastating losses at home to teams they were heavily favored to beat. The loser will be eliminated from the national conversation and the winner will get new life. When in doubt, take the points.
OVER (71.5) Cal/Washington. I really want to bet on my first-place Cal Bears because I think this is a winnable game, but I don’t want to jinx them. Washington has a pretty tough defense so I’m expecting “only” 3 TDs and 300 yards from Jared Goff in this game instead of his usual 5 TDs and 500 yards. The Bears won’t score as much as they usually do, but I know the Cal defense will give up some points of their own so I still like the OVER. When your last 3 games are 60-59, 59-56, and 49-45, the OVER seems like the smart way to go.
Arizona (+2.5) over USC. This line is surprising to me because the game is in the Desert but if Vegas wants to give me points, I will take it. I was a little worried that Arizona would succumb to the pressure and expectations of being in first place, but this line should keep that chip on its shoulder. And anybody who saw that Oregon game last week knows that it was no fluke – Rich Rod has got himself a fine football team. The Wildcats will win.
UCLA (+2.5) over Oregon. A week ago this was looking to be the PAC-12 game of the year between two Top-10 teams. Now look at it. Both teams suffered devastating losses at home to teams they were heavily favored to beat. The loser will be eliminated from the national conversation and the winner will get new life. When in doubt, take the points.
And for all of this weeks picks plus times, channels, records ATS and much much more here is the Week 7 Bettors Guide
| Week 7 Bettors Guide |
Remember the 2014 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 15th at the Westgate Resort (formerly the LVH)
