FSU blocked the PAT to win There’s only three weeks left before GO JUMBO!!
The gang is making their reservations. It’s shaping up to be another great crowd having another superb weekend!
It’s about time the Doofus started making some good picks. I usually start out behind the curve but this years slow start is getting a little long in the tooth.
I had good luck using the bounce back / fade situational analysis. I took three teams in the bounce back position going 2-1 with:
UNC -1.5 over Va Tech – Bad loss. Ellis is still apologizing for that one. UNC couldn’t get it going in horrendous weather conditions as they got humiliated 34-3.
Florida State +3.0 vs Miami (FL) – FSU won outright 20-19 when Miami (FL) botched the PAT
San Diego State -15.0 vs UNLV – SDSU got the Mini Mega win 26-7
And I picked against Tennessee +6.5 @ Texas A&M in a fade position. I was on the right side of Captain Hook as A&M won 45-38
So 3-1 on the ones I picked. I also went 2-0 going against the fade situation with
The gang is making their reservations. It’s shaping up to be another great crowd having another superb weekend!
It’s about time the Doofus started making some good picks. I usually start out behind the curve but this years slow start is getting a little long in the tooth.
I had good luck using the bounce back / fade situational analysis. I took three teams in the bounce back position going 2-1 with:
UNC -1.5 over Va Tech – Bad loss. Ellis is still apologizing for that one. UNC couldn’t get it going in horrendous weather conditions as they got humiliated 34-3.
Florida State +3.0 vs Miami (FL) – FSU won outright 20-19 when Miami (FL) botched the PAT
San Diego State -15.0 vs UNLV – SDSU got the Mini Mega win 26-7
And I picked against Tennessee +6.5 @ Texas A&M in a fade position. I was on the right side of Captain Hook as A&M won 45-38
So 3-1 on the ones I picked. I also went 2-0 going against the fade situation with
The Sheriff said take the Huskies...so I did...He was right on Washington was in a fade position but the Sheriff was taking the Huskies giving 9.5 @ Oregon. He was right as Washington demolished the Ducks 70-21.
Indiana was getting 29.0 @ Ohio State – too many points for me. I took the Hoosiers and it paid off as they covered losing 38-17.
So let’s take a look at picking the bounce back / fades from last week.
The teams in the bounce back situation are:
Louisville -34.5 vs Duke – This is actually a week delayed bounce back as the Cards had a bye last week after losing to Clemson. Louisville has had two weeks to stew over that loss. Duke has just enough defense to make the game interesting but the Blue Devil offense just can’t keep up the pace. This is a ton of points but I think the Cards will come out fired up early and coast to a cover. No quatloos though.
Marshall -13.5 vs Florida Atlantic – Actually both teams are in bounce back positions as the both lost as big favorites last week. FAU lost to UNC Charlotte 28-23 as 13.5 point favorites while Marshall lost to North Texas 38-21 as 10.0 point favorites. This is a matchup between bad and awful. I'll take awful and the points.
Air Force -14.5 vs New Mexico – The Fly Boys lost last week to Wyoming 35-26 as 10.5 point favorites. Now they are laying more than 2 TDs. I’ve not had much luck laying that many points so I’ll take the Lobos to score enough to get the cover.
Indiana was getting 29.0 @ Ohio State – too many points for me. I took the Hoosiers and it paid off as they covered losing 38-17.
So let’s take a look at picking the bounce back / fades from last week.
The teams in the bounce back situation are:
Louisville -34.5 vs Duke – This is actually a week delayed bounce back as the Cards had a bye last week after losing to Clemson. Louisville has had two weeks to stew over that loss. Duke has just enough defense to make the game interesting but the Blue Devil offense just can’t keep up the pace. This is a ton of points but I think the Cards will come out fired up early and coast to a cover. No quatloos though.
Marshall -13.5 vs Florida Atlantic – Actually both teams are in bounce back positions as the both lost as big favorites last week. FAU lost to UNC Charlotte 28-23 as 13.5 point favorites while Marshall lost to North Texas 38-21 as 10.0 point favorites. This is a matchup between bad and awful. I'll take awful and the points.
Air Force -14.5 vs New Mexico – The Fly Boys lost last week to Wyoming 35-26 as 10.5 point favorites. Now they are laying more than 2 TDs. I’ve not had much luck laying that many points so I’ll take the Lobos to score enough to get the cover.
In sloppy conditions Navy spilled Houston Houston -21.0 vs Tulsa – In one of the biggest upsets of the year, Navy sank the Cougars 46-40. This was the game that Nick and I turned to when we had enough of the Spartans. Again a ton of points. Tulsa has just enough offense to get a back door cover. But I’ll risk it and take a fired up Cougar squad for a quatloo and a Mini Mega on the over 72.5
Southern Miss +26.0 @ LSU – LSU had an unscheduled bye weekend after their game with Florida got postponed. They finally decided to reschedule the game for Nov 19th in Red Stick instead of Tallahassee. .Florida is throwing LSU under the bus saying that go no help from the Boys from the Bayou.
Southern Miss may have been looking ahead to this game last week when they lost outright to UT San Antonio 55-32 as 16.5 point favorites. Southern Miss is one of the better Group of 5 teams. They are 1-0 in the SEC having beaten Kentucky 44-35 in week 1. Getting 26? I’ll take that for a Mega Bet!
How about fading teams coming off huge upsets?
UT San Antonio -3.0 @ Rice – Two bad teams going at it. But Rice is by far the inferior team. I’ll take the Road Runners to win and cover two in a row.
UNC Charlotte +5.0 vs Florida International. Two even worse teams squaring off. UNC Charlotte is coming off a 28-23 upset over Florida Atlantic as 13.5 point dogs. The Niners could be the worst team in Div 1A. Last week was a fluke. I’ll take FIU led by new HC Ron Cooper and lay the points.
Southern Miss +26.0 @ LSU – LSU had an unscheduled bye weekend after their game with Florida got postponed. They finally decided to reschedule the game for Nov 19th in Red Stick instead of Tallahassee. .Florida is throwing LSU under the bus saying that go no help from the Boys from the Bayou.
Southern Miss may have been looking ahead to this game last week when they lost outright to UT San Antonio 55-32 as 16.5 point favorites. Southern Miss is one of the better Group of 5 teams. They are 1-0 in the SEC having beaten Kentucky 44-35 in week 1. Getting 26? I’ll take that for a Mega Bet!
How about fading teams coming off huge upsets?
UT San Antonio -3.0 @ Rice – Two bad teams going at it. But Rice is by far the inferior team. I’ll take the Road Runners to win and cover two in a row.
UNC Charlotte +5.0 vs Florida International. Two even worse teams squaring off. UNC Charlotte is coming off a 28-23 upset over Florida Atlantic as 13.5 point dogs. The Niners could be the worst team in Div 1A. Last week was a fluke. I’ll take FIU led by new HC Ron Cooper and lay the points.
Fear the Beavers! Oregon State +9.0 vs Utah – The Beavers knocked off Cal in OT last week 47-44 while getting 13.5. Mrs Sheriff is still walking around in a daze this week. I would normally fade this but the Sheriff says take the Beav so I will take the points.
There’s one revenge angle game this week is:
Texas 14.0 vs Iowa State – The Twisters upset the Horns last year 24-0. Texas is coming off a tough loss in the Red River Shootout to arch rival Oklahoma last week 45-40. Tough to figure out where Texas’ head will be this week. The ‘Clones play good teams tough and I hate laying two scores so I’ll take the ISU to cover.
Taking it all in I'll take Southern Miss +26.0 as a Mega Bet plus
North Carolina +7.5 @ Miami (FL) - OK Ellis, no excuses this week. Last week's blow out was due to the weather. I get it. This week the weather is expected to be a little breezy but otherwise fine.
I was debating on this one due to the condition of Heel RB Elijah Hood, but he is probable so I'll go with the high octane NC offense to keep pace with the Canes and QB Brad Kaaya.
Expect this to be a game where the Miami (FL) to go on long time consuming drives and the the boys in light blue get a quick drive to tie it. I'll take the TD and the hook as UNC keeps this close in a high scoring contest.
Some conflicting trends - the home team is 4-0 ATS while the dog is 8-3-1 ATS and UNC is 6-1 ATS on the road.
Dallas +4.0 @ Green Bay - Green Bay is overrated. They have played one quality team - the Vikings and got beat. Other than that they have abused bad teams like the Giants and Jacksonville (and well, the Lions who always suck in Lambeau). Dallas has far too much offense for the sub par Pack defense. Ezekial Elliott will soften up the Packer front seven and then Dak Prescott will torch the banged up Gren Bay secondary.
Rodgers will get the lead on Dallas and then coast like he's been doing lately and Dallas will get the back door cover.
For the Mini Megas I'll take the over 72.5 on Houston Tulsa plus:
There’s one revenge angle game this week is:
Texas 14.0 vs Iowa State – The Twisters upset the Horns last year 24-0. Texas is coming off a tough loss in the Red River Shootout to arch rival Oklahoma last week 45-40. Tough to figure out where Texas’ head will be this week. The ‘Clones play good teams tough and I hate laying two scores so I’ll take the ISU to cover.
Taking it all in I'll take Southern Miss +26.0 as a Mega Bet plus
North Carolina +7.5 @ Miami (FL) - OK Ellis, no excuses this week. Last week's blow out was due to the weather. I get it. This week the weather is expected to be a little breezy but otherwise fine.
I was debating on this one due to the condition of Heel RB Elijah Hood, but he is probable so I'll go with the high octane NC offense to keep pace with the Canes and QB Brad Kaaya.
Expect this to be a game where the Miami (FL) to go on long time consuming drives and the the boys in light blue get a quick drive to tie it. I'll take the TD and the hook as UNC keeps this close in a high scoring contest.
Some conflicting trends - the home team is 4-0 ATS while the dog is 8-3-1 ATS and UNC is 6-1 ATS on the road.
Dallas +4.0 @ Green Bay - Green Bay is overrated. They have played one quality team - the Vikings and got beat. Other than that they have abused bad teams like the Giants and Jacksonville (and well, the Lions who always suck in Lambeau). Dallas has far too much offense for the sub par Pack defense. Ezekial Elliott will soften up the Packer front seven and then Dak Prescott will torch the banged up Gren Bay secondary.
Rodgers will get the lead on Dallas and then coast like he's been doing lately and Dallas will get the back door cover.
For the Mini Megas I'll take the over 72.5 on Houston Tulsa plus:
Donnel Pumphrey leads the nation in rushing San Diego State - 17.0 @ Fresno State - I'm sticking with a good thing here. The Aztecs rolled a bad UNLV team last week 26-7. Fresno State is even worse. The Bulldogs lost to UNLV 45-20 two weeks ago.
I hate laying 3 scores - it's been killing me but Fresno State is just that bad. SDSU RB Donnel Pumphrey will get over 200 yards against the nations third worst rush defense as the Aztecs cruise to a big win.
The trends are on my side as SDSU is 11-1 ATS in Mountain West play
Cincinnati +8.5 @ New England - This spread is far to high. Giving more than a TD in the NFL should only happen when a good tram is playing on of the worst (like Cleveland last week for the Pats) Cincinnati is not a bad team. Granted they are 2-3 but the losses have been to 4-1 Dallas, 4-2 Denver and 4-1 Steelers.
Cleveland +7.0 @ Tennessee - Ill grant you the browns are bad but not that bad especially when compared to the TItans. Tennessee has no business laying a TD against anyone.
The Sheriff continues his torrid pace going 2-1. His one loss was due to the hook. He laid 4.5 on USC who won 21-17. Fear Captain Hook.
This week he is going with.
Washington State (-5) over UCLA. The Sheriff is placing this bet on Tuesday because this line will grow to at least a touchdown before kickoff. UCLA was the Sheriff’s pick to win the PAC-12 South before the season started, but the Bruins have been a disappointment. UCLA’s running game is nonexistent, and defenses have been pinning back their ears and coming at Rosen with both barrels (he had to leave last week’s loss to ASU due to a shoulder injury). Wazzu is the second best team in the PAC-12 North and should win this game easily.
Colorado (-13.5) over Arizona State. The Buffs gave the Condoms a fight last week and almost pulled off the upset. Colorado is a veteran team with a hard-hitting defense, and a strong running game. The Sheriff was so impressed that he is now predicting the Buffs will win the PAC-12 South (Colorado and Utah both have strong Defenses but the Buffs have a much better QB in Steven Montez). You can stick a fork in the Sun Devils – they are done.
Oregon State (+9.5) over Utah. Utah should not be laying this many points on the road with a passing game as pathetic as theirs has been. The Beavers beat the Sheriff’s beloved Cal Bears last week and he expects them to put up a similarly inspired effort this week against the Utes. Utah’s leading rusher (Armand Shyne) is out for the season after getting injured last week against Arizona. Utah wins but Oregon State will cover.
I hate laying 3 scores - it's been killing me but Fresno State is just that bad. SDSU RB Donnel Pumphrey will get over 200 yards against the nations third worst rush defense as the Aztecs cruise to a big win.
The trends are on my side as SDSU is 11-1 ATS in Mountain West play
Cincinnati +8.5 @ New England - This spread is far to high. Giving more than a TD in the NFL should only happen when a good tram is playing on of the worst (like Cleveland last week for the Pats) Cincinnati is not a bad team. Granted they are 2-3 but the losses have been to 4-1 Dallas, 4-2 Denver and 4-1 Steelers.
Cleveland +7.0 @ Tennessee - Ill grant you the browns are bad but not that bad especially when compared to the TItans. Tennessee has no business laying a TD against anyone.
The Sheriff continues his torrid pace going 2-1. His one loss was due to the hook. He laid 4.5 on USC who won 21-17. Fear Captain Hook.
This week he is going with.
Washington State (-5) over UCLA. The Sheriff is placing this bet on Tuesday because this line will grow to at least a touchdown before kickoff. UCLA was the Sheriff’s pick to win the PAC-12 South before the season started, but the Bruins have been a disappointment. UCLA’s running game is nonexistent, and defenses have been pinning back their ears and coming at Rosen with both barrels (he had to leave last week’s loss to ASU due to a shoulder injury). Wazzu is the second best team in the PAC-12 North and should win this game easily.
Colorado (-13.5) over Arizona State. The Buffs gave the Condoms a fight last week and almost pulled off the upset. Colorado is a veteran team with a hard-hitting defense, and a strong running game. The Sheriff was so impressed that he is now predicting the Buffs will win the PAC-12 South (Colorado and Utah both have strong Defenses but the Buffs have a much better QB in Steven Montez). You can stick a fork in the Sun Devils – they are done.
Oregon State (+9.5) over Utah. Utah should not be laying this many points on the road with a passing game as pathetic as theirs has been. The Beavers beat the Sheriff’s beloved Cal Bears last week and he expects them to put up a similarly inspired effort this week against the Utes. Utah’s leading rusher (Armand Shyne) is out for the season after getting injured last week against Arizona. Utah wins but Oregon State will cover.
And for all this week's games. spreads, picks and much much more here is the Week 7 Bettors Guide
| Week 7 2016 Weekly Bettors Guide |
