Chris, Bruce, me and the wives will be down at Mr and Mrs H's Coastal Command this weekend. It'll be a football watching, euchre playing grand old time.
I've already sent around the games that I'll want to be watching to the gang. Hopefully, the wives will allow us to watch.
And if we do - here are the key Mega Bet games I'll be watching along with MSU
Paxton Lynch will be more than USF can handle Memphis -8.5 @ South Florida - Normally, I would worry about a let down scenario for Memphis after a huge victory over Cincinnati last week. But the spread appears to already reflect that.
Memphis is arguably the best non Power Five Team with victories over Cincinnati and Bowling Green. They have a prolific offense led by QB Paxton Lynch. The Tigers are #3 in scoring averaging 54 points per game. More than enough to compensate for a defense that can leak at times.
South Florida has been stuck in a downward spiral for several years now. HC Wille Taggert is on the Hot Seat with a 7-20 overall record. While the defense is OK the offense is horrible and won’t be able to keep up with the Tigers aerial attack.
The Bulls will keep this game in sight for a half and then it will be all Memphis.
The trends favor Memphis - they are 6-1-2 away from the Liberty Bowl
Five turnovers killed the Tide Alabama +1.5 @ Georgia - Bama is done! The dynasty is over! Even – Fire Saban, put Kiffin in charge. One loss to Mississippi and the fan base is in total melt down. Now for the first time since the 2009 SEC championship game against Florida and Tim Tebow, Alabama is an underdog. A loss would put the Tide at 0-2 in SEC play for the first time since 1990.
The Tide didn’t become bad all of a sudden. It was a fluky loss to Ole Miss. They were -5 in turnovers and yet had the ball in their hands at the end of the game with a chance to win it. I can’t think of a team that can overcome a -5 deficit and yet Bama almost did.
While Alabama has playing some quality teams in Wisconsin and Mississippi, Georgia has been feasting on the likes of UL Monroe, Vandy, Southern, and South Carolina. The stats for QB Greyson Lambert and RB Nick Chubb have been gaudy – if the best team you faced is South Carolina – you haven’t played anyone.
They are about to come up against a fierce defense gears to stopping the Georgia’s of the world. It’s a huge game – the kind Georgia typically ends up pulling a coyote against the road runner. Dawgs lose outright.
Going against the trend here - The Tide is 4-9 ATS away from Tuscaloosa.
Oregon''s defense was awful last week Oregon -7.5 @ Colorado - Another team that is dead and buried after getting destroyed by Utah last week. Yea, Oregon is not what they used to be. The offense is struggling in the post Mariotta era.And the defense which used to attack in the hopes of getting a few more possessions for the offense is a sieve. Youth is the primary reason
But they haven't fallen this much.Oregon used to be favored in the 30's agains Colorado. And Colorado is better but not that much better than in prior years.
Oregon has more than enough offense to overwhelm the Buffs.
Conflicting trends here - Oregon is 16-2 ATS on the road. Colorado is 9-1 ATS at home.
But they haven't fallen this much.Oregon used to be favored in the 30's agains Colorado. And Colorado is better but not that much better than in prior years.
Oregon has more than enough offense to overwhelm the Buffs.
Conflicting trends here - Oregon is 16-2 ATS on the road. Colorado is 9-1 ATS at home.
Reynolds for the TD! For some Mini Megas I'll go with:
Navy -5.0 vs Air Force - Is this the game that Navy QB Keenan Reynolds sets the NCAA rushing TD record? He is 4 away from tying Montee Ball. Five will set a new record. What better game to set the record than in a revenge game against rival Air Force at home.
Since Army sucks again this year (even Dwink will admit to that) this game is for the Commander in Chief Trophy.
The defense for the two teams are about even. But Navy has Keenan which is far better than what the Falcons can hope to have under center.
Two solid teams go at it. One is better. Navy will score late to put this game away.
In the NFL I'll try
Carolina -3.0 @ Tampa Bay - Jameis Winston has been awful so far this year - and he has yet to face a good defense. The Titans and New Orleans defenses are nowhere near what he is about to face in Carolina's D.
And cam Newton is healthy for now so he is effective and will burn the Tampa D with his passing and running.
It's a divisional game so Carolina wil be focused.
Navy -5.0 vs Air Force - Is this the game that Navy QB Keenan Reynolds sets the NCAA rushing TD record? He is 4 away from tying Montee Ball. Five will set a new record. What better game to set the record than in a revenge game against rival Air Force at home.
Since Army sucks again this year (even Dwink will admit to that) this game is for the Commander in Chief Trophy.
The defense for the two teams are about even. But Navy has Keenan which is far better than what the Falcons can hope to have under center.
Two solid teams go at it. One is better. Navy will score late to put this game away.
In the NFL I'll try
Carolina -3.0 @ Tampa Bay - Jameis Winston has been awful so far this year - and he has yet to face a good defense. The Titans and New Orleans defenses are nowhere near what he is about to face in Carolina's D.
And cam Newton is healthy for now so he is effective and will burn the Tampa D with his passing and running.
It's a divisional game so Carolina wil be focused.
For the Point Whore Parlay I'll take
Texas Tech +17.0 @ Baylor
San Jose State +19.5 @ Auburn
Indiana +21.0 @ Ohio State
Texas Tech +17.0 @ Baylor
San Jose State +19.5 @ Auburn
Indiana +21.0 @ Ohio State
The Sheriff didn’t have a very good week last week, but hopefully his crystal ball will be a little clearer this week. (One mistake he won’t repeat is making any more bets on ASU).
Northwestern (-5.5) over Minnesota. NU appears to be a team of destiny this year, and that win against Stanford keeps looking better and better as the Cardinal appear to be the class of the PAC-12 North (sorry, Cal, that Iron Throne belongs to the Trees until you prove otherwise). Minnesota hasn’t looked impressive in any of its 3 wins this year, but a Jerry Kill coached team always come ready to play so the Wildcats better button their chinstraps. Should be a great game on the shores of Lake Michigan.
UCLA (-13) over Arizona State. One of the reasons I’m making my picks on Monday is that I expect this line to climb to over two touchdowns by Friday. This has been a pretty unpredictable year so far in college football, but one thing I can say with certainty is the Arizona State Sun Devils suck. USC should have lent them a few of its wide receivers because ASU didn’t bring any of its own. Watching Arizona State’s secondary try to cover USC’s receivers was painful. In short, ASU’s offense can’t score, and its defense can’t stop anybody. The Bruins should roll.
Colorado (+10.5) over Oregon. What in the world has happened to the Ducks this year? Vernon Adams appears to be either hurt or very confused by the Oregon offense, and Jeff Lockie looked terrible against Utah. Oregon still has a ton of talent on offense but its defense is abysmal. I think Oregon has enough pride to show up and win this game, but I have no confidence in their ability to cover this number. I’ll take the Buffs and the points.
The Doofus: We are on opposite sides on this one. And the line has moved in my favor too
And here are all the games, spreads, times picks and much much more for week 5
Northwestern (-5.5) over Minnesota. NU appears to be a team of destiny this year, and that win against Stanford keeps looking better and better as the Cardinal appear to be the class of the PAC-12 North (sorry, Cal, that Iron Throne belongs to the Trees until you prove otherwise). Minnesota hasn’t looked impressive in any of its 3 wins this year, but a Jerry Kill coached team always come ready to play so the Wildcats better button their chinstraps. Should be a great game on the shores of Lake Michigan.
UCLA (-13) over Arizona State. One of the reasons I’m making my picks on Monday is that I expect this line to climb to over two touchdowns by Friday. This has been a pretty unpredictable year so far in college football, but one thing I can say with certainty is the Arizona State Sun Devils suck. USC should have lent them a few of its wide receivers because ASU didn’t bring any of its own. Watching Arizona State’s secondary try to cover USC’s receivers was painful. In short, ASU’s offense can’t score, and its defense can’t stop anybody. The Bruins should roll.
Colorado (+10.5) over Oregon. What in the world has happened to the Ducks this year? Vernon Adams appears to be either hurt or very confused by the Oregon offense, and Jeff Lockie looked terrible against Utah. Oregon still has a ton of talent on offense but its defense is abysmal. I think Oregon has enough pride to show up and win this game, but I have no confidence in their ability to cover this number. I’ll take the Buffs and the points.
The Doofus: We are on opposite sides on this one. And the line has moved in my favor too
And here are all the games, spreads, times picks and much much more for week 5
| 2015 Week 5 Bettors Guide |
