
Well the final game of the 2012 football season is here. It’s Super Bowl XLVII – the Harbowl! Brothers Jim and John Harbaugh led their respective teams to New Orleans much to the surprise of the Doofus. My picks in the post season have been down right dreadful. But that won’t stop me this weekend. Got to go out with a winner.
Lots of angles to come into play in the biggest game of the year. Starting with
Joe Flacco has been awesome in the playoffs.
Before the season Flacco said he was an elite QB. That drew chuckles that continued during the season. But once the playoffs started he has looked the part. Maybe it’s that he is in the final year of his contract and is getting ready to negotiate. I don’t know but he has been tearing it up since the post season started averaging 276 yards per game and 9.2 yards per pass in the playoffs. Flacco has let it rip, going 20 yards or more on over 17 percent of his pass attempts this year – highest in the league. Half on his 22 TD passes this season have been on deep balls.
A major factor in his improvement has been the offensive line. Having Bryant McKinnie take over at left tackle has been absolutely huge because it has allowed Michael Oher and Kelechi Osemele to move to right tackle and guard, respectively, which are their natural positions (despite Oher's famous moniker). The result is that Flacco has taken just four sacks this entire postseason
And the Niners have been suspect on the deep ball. Atlanta moved the ball with ease en route to a 17-0 lead in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game. Matt Ryan ended up throwing for 396 yards San Francisco has allowed 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. Donte Whitner, who was somehow voted to the Pro Bowl, surrendered more touchdowns than any safety in the NFL this season . So expect the Ravens to throw the ball deep to set up running lanes for Ray Rice. If and when those strikes hit the Niners are in trouble.
Lots of angles to come into play in the biggest game of the year. Starting with
Joe Flacco has been awesome in the playoffs.
Before the season Flacco said he was an elite QB. That drew chuckles that continued during the season. But once the playoffs started he has looked the part. Maybe it’s that he is in the final year of his contract and is getting ready to negotiate. I don’t know but he has been tearing it up since the post season started averaging 276 yards per game and 9.2 yards per pass in the playoffs. Flacco has let it rip, going 20 yards or more on over 17 percent of his pass attempts this year – highest in the league. Half on his 22 TD passes this season have been on deep balls.
A major factor in his improvement has been the offensive line. Having Bryant McKinnie take over at left tackle has been absolutely huge because it has allowed Michael Oher and Kelechi Osemele to move to right tackle and guard, respectively, which are their natural positions (despite Oher's famous moniker). The result is that Flacco has taken just four sacks this entire postseason
And the Niners have been suspect on the deep ball. Atlanta moved the ball with ease en route to a 17-0 lead in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game. Matt Ryan ended up throwing for 396 yards San Francisco has allowed 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. Donte Whitner, who was somehow voted to the Pro Bowl, surrendered more touchdowns than any safety in the NFL this season . So expect the Ravens to throw the ball deep to set up running lanes for Ray Rice. If and when those strikes hit the Niners are in trouble.

Ravens defense has been on fire in the playoffs
The Ravens defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks.
San Francisco has taken off after the benching of Alex Smith riding on the feet and arm of Colin Kaepernick to the Super Bowl. Kaepernick has the third-fewest starts of any quarterback to ever make a Super Bowl start, but that hasn’t phased him. He went into Atlanta and led a comeback after being down by 17 points early. He was nearly flawless, going 16-of-21 for 233 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, he didn't commit a single turnover. Kaepernick has been superb with the football committing three turnovers over the last six games.
And the Ravens have been gashed by mobile QBs. Here’s how Michael Vick and RGIII fared against the Ravens
Vick: 23-of-32, 371 yards. 1 TD, 2 INTs. 10 carries, 34 rush yards. 1 rush TD.
RGIII: 15-of-26, 242 yards. 1 TD. 7 carries, 34 rush yards.
If Vick is tearing your defense up something is wrong. And that thing was partially due to Ray Lewis being out (and if you missed it here is a great SNL parody of Ray Lewis I never heard that song before.
People have been pointing to reindeer butt spray he has been using but the primary source of the Raven resurgence has been the returns of Paul Kruger, Terrel Suggs and Haloti Ngata. Kruger has been dominant in the post season and will be facing Niner OL Anthony who hasn't really been challenged this postseason.
If Kruger and company can contain Kaepernick they should be able to stop the run and force Kaepernick to beat them downfield. That’s where Terrell Suggs' return to the lineup will be huge. Suggs will be able to put pressure on Kaeernick. Add in Haloti Ngata return to health and the Ravens defense looks like their old dominant self. Lewis is getting al the pub but it’s really in the trenches that the Ravens have improved during the last half of the season.
San Francisco has taken off after the benching of Alex Smith riding on the feet and arm of Colin Kaepernick to the Super Bowl. Kaepernick has the third-fewest starts of any quarterback to ever make a Super Bowl start, but that hasn’t phased him. He went into Atlanta and led a comeback after being down by 17 points early. He was nearly flawless, going 16-of-21 for 233 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, he didn't commit a single turnover. Kaepernick has been superb with the football committing three turnovers over the last six games.
And the Ravens have been gashed by mobile QBs. Here’s how Michael Vick and RGIII fared against the Ravens
Vick: 23-of-32, 371 yards. 1 TD, 2 INTs. 10 carries, 34 rush yards. 1 rush TD.
RGIII: 15-of-26, 242 yards. 1 TD. 7 carries, 34 rush yards.
If Vick is tearing your defense up something is wrong. And that thing was partially due to Ray Lewis being out (and if you missed it here is a great SNL parody of Ray Lewis I never heard that song before.
People have been pointing to reindeer butt spray he has been using but the primary source of the Raven resurgence has been the returns of Paul Kruger, Terrel Suggs and Haloti Ngata. Kruger has been dominant in the post season and will be facing Niner OL Anthony who hasn't really been challenged this postseason.
If Kruger and company can contain Kaepernick they should be able to stop the run and force Kaepernick to beat them downfield. That’s where Terrell Suggs' return to the lineup will be huge. Suggs will be able to put pressure on Kaeernick. Add in Haloti Ngata return to health and the Ravens defense looks like their old dominant self. Lewis is getting al the pub but it’s really in the trenches that the Ravens have improved during the last half of the season.

It's Kaepernicking - not Tebowing!
Ravens very special teams vs Niners not so special teams
The biggest chink in the 49ers' armor this season is their special teams. San Francisco was second worst in the NFL in kick return coverage, giving up 26.9 yards per kickoff. Meanwhile, The Ravens return team was tops in the NFL in average return yards, picking up 27.3 yards per kickoff and returned two kicks for scores, both from speedster Jacoby Jones.
On top of that, Baltimore boasts the steady leg of rookie Justin Tucker, who connected on 32 of his 35 field goal attempts and is perfect on extra points. He’s hit both FG attempts in the postseason so far.
Which is more than 49ers kicker David Akers can say. Akers has been shaky all season (29 for 42 FGA) and doinked a 38-yard attempt off the left upright versus Atlanta two weeks ago. Akers has been a pitiful 9 for 19 on FGs over 40 yards.
If this game comes down to stout red zone defenses and FG attempts its advantage Baltimore
Pat’s Time Zone Angle could be a huge influence
Here’s what Matvie from the LV Hilton Super Contest had to say "These last two games are a great argument for no early starts for West teams. Seattle starts at 10, is asleep for 2.5 quarters, loses. Niners start at noon, sleep for the first quarter and a half, win only because the Falcons have the worst blown NFC Championship lead of all time. These leads seem to be an obvious product of the damn time zones."
This game starts at 6:30. It normally would end sometime around 9:40, but don't forget that Super Bowl halftimes are extra long. The previous two Super Bowls have concluded at 9:55 and 10:05.
And here are how the Ravens and Niners have fared by quarter in the playoffs
Footnote: the Ravens have played 9 games against playoff squads this season, the Niners 7.
1Q – Baltimore: 41-56
1Q – San Francisco: 20-48
2Q – Baltimore: 59-81
2Q – San Francisco: 63-58
3Q – Baltimore: 55-53
3Q – San Francisco: 52-17
4Q – Baltimore: 82-38
4Q – San Francisco: 48-60
Note how Baltimore has been outscored in each of the first two quarters in games against playoff opposition stalemating the third quarter while dominating the 4th and final quarter.
On the flip side San Francisco has been outscored in the 1st and 4th quarters but, thanks to a super stingy 3rd quarter defensive effort, has come out on top in the middle stanzas.
Combine the time zone angle with the quarters trend and it looks like it will be an ugly first half, SF takes the lead in the third quarter and then a great fourth quarter.
The biggest chink in the 49ers' armor this season is their special teams. San Francisco was second worst in the NFL in kick return coverage, giving up 26.9 yards per kickoff. Meanwhile, The Ravens return team was tops in the NFL in average return yards, picking up 27.3 yards per kickoff and returned two kicks for scores, both from speedster Jacoby Jones.
On top of that, Baltimore boasts the steady leg of rookie Justin Tucker, who connected on 32 of his 35 field goal attempts and is perfect on extra points. He’s hit both FG attempts in the postseason so far.
Which is more than 49ers kicker David Akers can say. Akers has been shaky all season (29 for 42 FGA) and doinked a 38-yard attempt off the left upright versus Atlanta two weeks ago. Akers has been a pitiful 9 for 19 on FGs over 40 yards.
If this game comes down to stout red zone defenses and FG attempts its advantage Baltimore
Pat’s Time Zone Angle could be a huge influence
Here’s what Matvie from the LV Hilton Super Contest had to say "These last two games are a great argument for no early starts for West teams. Seattle starts at 10, is asleep for 2.5 quarters, loses. Niners start at noon, sleep for the first quarter and a half, win only because the Falcons have the worst blown NFC Championship lead of all time. These leads seem to be an obvious product of the damn time zones."
This game starts at 6:30. It normally would end sometime around 9:40, but don't forget that Super Bowl halftimes are extra long. The previous two Super Bowls have concluded at 9:55 and 10:05.
And here are how the Ravens and Niners have fared by quarter in the playoffs
Footnote: the Ravens have played 9 games against playoff squads this season, the Niners 7.
1Q – Baltimore: 41-56
1Q – San Francisco: 20-48
2Q – Baltimore: 59-81
2Q – San Francisco: 63-58
3Q – Baltimore: 55-53
3Q – San Francisco: 52-17
4Q – Baltimore: 82-38
4Q – San Francisco: 48-60
Note how Baltimore has been outscored in each of the first two quarters in games against playoff opposition stalemating the third quarter while dominating the 4th and final quarter.
On the flip side San Francisco has been outscored in the 1st and 4th quarters but, thanks to a super stingy 3rd quarter defensive effort, has come out on top in the middle stanzas.
Combine the time zone angle with the quarters trend and it looks like it will be an ugly first half, SF takes the lead in the third quarter and then a great fourth quarter.

The Super Bowl is set in good old New Orleans
Other Fun Facts that will have no bearing on the game but are interesting none the less:
Ray Lewis' first career sack was of Jim Harbaugh, on Oct. 13, 1996.
Two years ago the Ravens dumped their DC from Michigan Greg Mattison who coached at Michigan and replaced him with Dean Pees who coached at Michigan State. This year they replaced their OC Cam Cameron who also coached at Michigan. This year they are in the Super Bowl. Coincidence? I wonder.
For the ninth straight year the team with the best record in the regular season will not in the Super Bowl (Atlanta and Denver 13-3)
Teams that played in the wild-card round and advanced to the Super Bowl are 7-0 ATS since 2003. Baltimore is a wild card team
Since the Ravens defeated the higher-seeded Giants back in Super Bowl XXXV, the lower-seeded teams are 9-2 in the big game. Baltimore is the lower seeded team this year.
The under is 6-2 in the previous eight Super Bowls.
Baltimore, who has not played a true indoor game all season – while San Francisco played on this very field beating the Saints in week 12.
Super Bowl Roster
Miami (FL) has the most players in the Super Bowl with 5. Next are Marshall, Ohio State and Oregon, Texas and Utah with 4. Here is the entire roster (just eligible player – no IR or practice squad)
Ray Lewis' first career sack was of Jim Harbaugh, on Oct. 13, 1996.
Two years ago the Ravens dumped their DC from Michigan Greg Mattison who coached at Michigan and replaced him with Dean Pees who coached at Michigan State. This year they replaced their OC Cam Cameron who also coached at Michigan. This year they are in the Super Bowl. Coincidence? I wonder.
For the ninth straight year the team with the best record in the regular season will not in the Super Bowl (Atlanta and Denver 13-3)
Teams that played in the wild-card round and advanced to the Super Bowl are 7-0 ATS since 2003. Baltimore is a wild card team
Since the Ravens defeated the higher-seeded Giants back in Super Bowl XXXV, the lower-seeded teams are 9-2 in the big game. Baltimore is the lower seeded team this year.
The under is 6-2 in the previous eight Super Bowls.
Baltimore, who has not played a true indoor game all season – while San Francisco played on this very field beating the Saints in week 12.
Super Bowl Roster
Miami (FL) has the most players in the Super Bowl with 5. Next are Marshall, Ohio State and Oregon, Texas and Utah with 4. Here is the entire roster (just eligible player – no IR or practice squad)

super_bowl_rosters_alphabetical.pdf |

super_bowl_rosters_by_college.pdf |
And here are all the prop bets for Super Bowl XLVII

lvh-super-book-2013.pdf |
Finally here are the scores and results ATS for all the Super Bowls

super_bowl_betting_history_2.xlsx |
The Final Mega Bets of the 2012 Season are:
Drum Roll please!!
I’m going to go with
Baltimore +4.0 vs San Francisco and
Baltimore vs San Francisco under 48
This shoud be a very close game. Not only are the defenses playing great but the teams have had two weeks to prepare. And these are not jst two typical Super Bowl coaching staffs. These are two brothers who know each other very well. The tems are going to come in very prepared and ready to play.
The first half is going to be a low scoring affair with lots of great stops. The Niners are going to be in a hole due to a couple of Flacco bombs when the second half opens but get the lead in the third quarter. Who ultimately wins will be in doubt but it will be by a FG. I like the Ravens chances in a FG game. I also like the under when its about FGs
So now its time to reopen a bottle of Irish Whiskey, get the wings out of the oven, kick back and watch a great game
GO JUMBO!!
Drum Roll please!!
I’m going to go with
Baltimore +4.0 vs San Francisco and
Baltimore vs San Francisco under 48
This shoud be a very close game. Not only are the defenses playing great but the teams have had two weeks to prepare. And these are not jst two typical Super Bowl coaching staffs. These are two brothers who know each other very well. The tems are going to come in very prepared and ready to play.
The first half is going to be a low scoring affair with lots of great stops. The Niners are going to be in a hole due to a couple of Flacco bombs when the second half opens but get the lead in the third quarter. Who ultimately wins will be in doubt but it will be by a FG. I like the Ravens chances in a FG game. I also like the under when its about FGs
So now its time to reopen a bottle of Irish Whiskey, get the wings out of the oven, kick back and watch a great game
GO JUMBO!!