Missouri torched Kentucky and It was a little brisk on the Doofus deck last Saturday night. But Chris mixed up some mean martinis which took the edge off. The LSU Bama game started out interesting but turned into a rout. So Bruce and I regaled the gang with some of the better stories from the GO JUMBO weekend. Bruce wanted to make a correction to the GO JUMBO recap – but what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas so no updates for you Bruce. The truth has no bearing on the recap.
Of course, now that the games no longer matter the Mega Bets start to pay off.
Week 11 Recap
Missouri -13.5 @ Kentucky – When laying big points on the road you have to hope that the visitors will overcome
and initial surge by the home dogs. Kentucky came out fired up and started moving on their first drive. Missouri finally held at the 6 and Kentucky kicked a FG. Then things got interesting. On the ensuing kickoff Mizzou got a great
return to their 44 but as the KR was going down, Kentucky ripped the ball out and recovered the football. Uh oh. If the get a score they could get some real good momentum going making the 2 TD spread real hard to get. Luckily - Missouri forced a three and out deflating the home crowd.
The Tigers finally started getting things going late in the first quarter with a TD. It was the first of 4 straight TDs by
Mizzou as the rolled to a 28-3 lead by the half. The Tigers kept it up in the second half as they blew out Kentucky 48-17 WIN
Of course, now that the games no longer matter the Mega Bets start to pay off.
Week 11 Recap
Missouri -13.5 @ Kentucky – When laying big points on the road you have to hope that the visitors will overcome
and initial surge by the home dogs. Kentucky came out fired up and started moving on their first drive. Missouri finally held at the 6 and Kentucky kicked a FG. Then things got interesting. On the ensuing kickoff Mizzou got a great
return to their 44 but as the KR was going down, Kentucky ripped the ball out and recovered the football. Uh oh. If the get a score they could get some real good momentum going making the 2 TD spread real hard to get. Luckily - Missouri forced a three and out deflating the home crowd.
The Tigers finally started getting things going late in the first quarter with a TD. It was the first of 4 straight TDs by
Mizzou as the rolled to a 28-3 lead by the half. The Tigers kept it up in the second half as they blew out Kentucky 48-17 WIN
Iowa rolled Purdue but Iowa -15.0 @ Purdue – A game that was not only a revenge game but also a favored by the Sagarin ratings
– sounds like a winner. And it was. Iowa dominated as they had their best offensive output of the season ripping off 509 total yards. The Hawkeyes had the
spread covered early in the fourth quarter when the scored a TD to go up 24-7. And they kept going getting the lead up to 38-7 before Purdue scored a meaningless TD with 51 seconds to go to cut the lead to 38-14. Unlike the GO JUMBO weekend however it didn’t matter. Iowa had the win and the cover WIN
San Francisco -6.0 vs Carolina – Things started out well. The Niners were dominating couldn’t get it into the
end zone. Midway through the second quarter San Fran was up 9-0. The bottom fell out. Carolina got a TD just inside the two minute warning at the end of the first half to cut the lead to 9-7. Worse, Colin Kaepernick’s favorite target WR Vernon Davis went down with an injury. Without Davis the SF offense stalled. Both defenses were solid I the second as the lone score was a FG by Carolina early in the fourth quarter to win it 10-9 LOSS
– sounds like a winner. And it was. Iowa dominated as they had their best offensive output of the season ripping off 509 total yards. The Hawkeyes had the
spread covered early in the fourth quarter when the scored a TD to go up 24-7. And they kept going getting the lead up to 38-7 before Purdue scored a meaningless TD with 51 seconds to go to cut the lead to 38-14. Unlike the GO JUMBO weekend however it didn’t matter. Iowa had the win and the cover WIN
San Francisco -6.0 vs Carolina – Things started out well. The Niners were dominating couldn’t get it into the
end zone. Midway through the second quarter San Fran was up 9-0. The bottom fell out. Carolina got a TD just inside the two minute warning at the end of the first half to cut the lead to 9-7. Worse, Colin Kaepernick’s favorite target WR Vernon Davis went down with an injury. Without Davis the SF offense stalled. Both defenses were solid I the second as the lone score was a FG by Carolina early in the fourth quarter to win it 10-9 LOSS
Carolina spilled SF to keep the Doofus from going undefeated Wow – has Vegas gotten sideways with Jeff
Sagarin. Last week there were ten games where the spread differential was 3.0 or great. Sagarin went an impressive 7-3 on those games. That brings the 4 week
cumulative total to 43-26-2 (62%)
This week there are a full 18 games where the spread is too big (The first team listed is not getting enough love from Vegas according to Sagarin)
Boston College -7.5 vs NC State
Duke +3.0 vs Miami (FL)
Pitt +1.0 vs North Carolina (Sorry Ellis – Vegas must be counting on a Pitt let down after beating ND)
Va Tech -14.0 vs Maryland
Illinois +32.0 vs Ohio State
Kansas State -10.5 vs TCU
Iowa State +24.0 @ Oklahoma
Houston +16.5 @ Louisville
Memphis -1.5 @ South Florida
Rice -16.5 vs La Tech
Florida Atlantic -17.0 @ Southern Miss
UTEP -6.0 vs Florida International
Navy -9.0 vs South Alabama
Central Michigan -3.0 @ Western Michigan
Colorado -3.0 @ Cal (The Sheriff is rolling his eyes over Cal – they are getting points vs Colorado at home??)
Utah +28.5 vs Oregon (bounce back for Oregon but Utah is tough in Rice Eccles)
Auburn -3.5 vs Georgia (The Big Guy knows that Auburn is covering machine this year at 8-2-0 so far)
Vanderbilt -12.5 vs Kentucky
Throw out bad teams on the road (Iowa State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, UTEP, Illinois, Central Michigan and Colorado) that still leaves 11 good betting opportunities.
And there are 4 revenge games this week too
Michigan State -6.5 @ Nebraska (very nice)
Northwestern -2.5 vs Michigan (also very nice)
Oklahoma State -3.0 @ Texas
Cincinnati -1.5 @ Rutgers (uh oh Dobby)
A target rich environment this week. And it’s the same week as next year’s GO JUMBO trip. Let’s hope the same thing occurs one year from now!
This week I’ll go with
Week 12 Mega Bets
Va Tech -14.0 vs Maryland – Hokie QB Logan Thomas came out of his funk last week slicing up Miami (FL) for 366
yards and a TD. If it is the beginning of a trend then Va Tech will destroy a reeling Maryland team. Even if it’s not the Hokies have enough defense to keep this from being close. Va Tech returns home as conquering heroes and roll.
Vanderbilt -12.5 vs Kentucky – I’ll stick with a good thing picking against the Wildcats. Vandy’s strong suit is the
aerial game. Kentucky is terrible against the pass. Dores WR Jordan Matthews will have a field day.
Miami +1.5 vs San Diego – Yeah, I know about the Incognito mess but it really didn’t appeat to affect the OL
play. QB Ryan Tannehill was only sacked twice. Unfortunately for the Fins it was on the last drive.
With time to stand in the pocket, Tannehill should be able to torch the worst secondary in the NFL. Oh, and the Bolts have the 28th ranked ground defense too so unlike last week there should be some running room for the Fin RBs.
The Sheriff of Malibu’s picks are in. This week he is sticking to his knitting staying insuide the PAC 12
The Sheriff wants to go 3-0 this week so no more half-assed Wyoming picks (he blames that one on Jackie Treehorn).
UCLA (-2.5) over Washington. Easiest pick of the week. UCLA should win this game comfortably. Huskies
suck on the road.
Oregon (-27) over Utah. Utah is an entirely different team on the road (sense a theme here?) The Utes
that beat Stanford and almost beat Arizona State in Salt lake City will be back home watching this game on TV. The Ducks will bounce back from their tough loss to Stanford and run up some points.
Arizona State (-14) over Oregon State. The Sun Devils should cruise In this game to set up a huge game next week against UCLA for the PAC-12 South Championship. That game will be awesome – this game will not.
Here are all the picks
Sagarin. Last week there were ten games where the spread differential was 3.0 or great. Sagarin went an impressive 7-3 on those games. That brings the 4 week
cumulative total to 43-26-2 (62%)
This week there are a full 18 games where the spread is too big (The first team listed is not getting enough love from Vegas according to Sagarin)
Boston College -7.5 vs NC State
Duke +3.0 vs Miami (FL)
Pitt +1.0 vs North Carolina (Sorry Ellis – Vegas must be counting on a Pitt let down after beating ND)
Va Tech -14.0 vs Maryland
Illinois +32.0 vs Ohio State
Kansas State -10.5 vs TCU
Iowa State +24.0 @ Oklahoma
Houston +16.5 @ Louisville
Memphis -1.5 @ South Florida
Rice -16.5 vs La Tech
Florida Atlantic -17.0 @ Southern Miss
UTEP -6.0 vs Florida International
Navy -9.0 vs South Alabama
Central Michigan -3.0 @ Western Michigan
Colorado -3.0 @ Cal (The Sheriff is rolling his eyes over Cal – they are getting points vs Colorado at home??)
Utah +28.5 vs Oregon (bounce back for Oregon but Utah is tough in Rice Eccles)
Auburn -3.5 vs Georgia (The Big Guy knows that Auburn is covering machine this year at 8-2-0 so far)
Vanderbilt -12.5 vs Kentucky
Throw out bad teams on the road (Iowa State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, UTEP, Illinois, Central Michigan and Colorado) that still leaves 11 good betting opportunities.
And there are 4 revenge games this week too
Michigan State -6.5 @ Nebraska (very nice)
Northwestern -2.5 vs Michigan (also very nice)
Oklahoma State -3.0 @ Texas
Cincinnati -1.5 @ Rutgers (uh oh Dobby)
A target rich environment this week. And it’s the same week as next year’s GO JUMBO trip. Let’s hope the same thing occurs one year from now!
This week I’ll go with
Week 12 Mega Bets
Va Tech -14.0 vs Maryland – Hokie QB Logan Thomas came out of his funk last week slicing up Miami (FL) for 366
yards and a TD. If it is the beginning of a trend then Va Tech will destroy a reeling Maryland team. Even if it’s not the Hokies have enough defense to keep this from being close. Va Tech returns home as conquering heroes and roll.
Vanderbilt -12.5 vs Kentucky – I’ll stick with a good thing picking against the Wildcats. Vandy’s strong suit is the
aerial game. Kentucky is terrible against the pass. Dores WR Jordan Matthews will have a field day.
Miami +1.5 vs San Diego – Yeah, I know about the Incognito mess but it really didn’t appeat to affect the OL
play. QB Ryan Tannehill was only sacked twice. Unfortunately for the Fins it was on the last drive.
With time to stand in the pocket, Tannehill should be able to torch the worst secondary in the NFL. Oh, and the Bolts have the 28th ranked ground defense too so unlike last week there should be some running room for the Fin RBs.
The Sheriff of Malibu’s picks are in. This week he is sticking to his knitting staying insuide the PAC 12
The Sheriff wants to go 3-0 this week so no more half-assed Wyoming picks (he blames that one on Jackie Treehorn).
UCLA (-2.5) over Washington. Easiest pick of the week. UCLA should win this game comfortably. Huskies
suck on the road.
Oregon (-27) over Utah. Utah is an entirely different team on the road (sense a theme here?) The Utes
that beat Stanford and almost beat Arizona State in Salt lake City will be back home watching this game on TV. The Ducks will bounce back from their tough loss to Stanford and run up some points.
Arizona State (-14) over Oregon State. The Sun Devils should cruise In this game to set up a huge game next week against UCLA for the PAC-12 South Championship. That game will be awesome – this game will not.
Here are all the picks
| 2013_weekly_predictions_week_12.xlsx |
GO JUMBO 2014 is at the LVH on Nov 15 2014
