
The Doofus deck will be open again this week after a 3 week hiatus. Mrs. Doofus has me running around doing errands so it won’t be available for some nice early games like Nebraska at Meeechigan. But there are plenty of good late games like Va Tech @ Miami (FL), a good under card of Houston @ UCF and Notre Dame @ Pitt.
The big draw will be LSU @ Bama. This game has gone a long way to determining the national championship for several years now and this year figures to be no different. What is different is the improvement on the offensive side for both teams. What used to be an easy under game is now not so easy. There should be more points racked up this year than you might expect.
I’m restocking the booze cabinet (the Sax Man and friends drained the last of the Irish last week) and making a grocery run too. Should be a good time.
What hasn’t been a good time is the picks this year. For the first time in several years I came away a loser in Vegas. Now Pete and Pat will tell you I’ve been a loser ever since they met me 35+ years ago but I’m referring to the monetary ledger.
Time to turn things around. One trend I have noticed is how well picking using the Sagarin rating. As I was telling Bruce during the 2013 GO JUMBO weekend – the Sagarin rating is a measure using past performance to predict the spread of games. When I take the difference between the team ratings (adding 3 to the home team) it generates a predicted spread. If that calculation varies significantly from the Vegas spread there is a potential
betting opportunity.
As an example – last week Fresno State hosted Nevada. Fresno State’s Sagarin rating was 73. Since they were home add 3 to get 76. Nevada’s rating was 62 for a difference of 14. The spread was 20.5 or 6.5 points greater than the rating. Taking Nevada was an opportunity (Fresno State was giving too many points) according to the Sagarin ratings. The final score was Fresno State 41 Nevada 23. Nevada covered – a win for Sagarin.
By going with teams where the Sagarin rating was 3 or more points greater than the Vegas spread – over the last three weeks has gone 36-23-2 or 61% . Pretty damn good. This week the Sagarin plus three games are (Sagarin
favored teams listed first)
Stanford +10.5 vs Oregon (Stanford covered – great game)
Wake Forest +34.5 vs Florida State
Iowa -15.0 @ Purdue
Kansas +31 @ Oklahoma State
UAB +23.5 @ Marshall
Tulane +9.0 @ UT San Antonio
Army +6.5 vs Western Kentucky
Western Michigan -2.5 @ Eastern Michigan
Colorado +28.0 @ Washington
Missouri -13.5 @ Kentucky.
In the revenge games (where the favored team lost last year) there are
Oregon -10.5 @ Stanford (in direct contradiction to the Sagarin rating)
Iowa -15.0 @ Purdue
Texas Tech -3.0 vs Kansas State
Texas -6.5 @ West Virginia
Western Michigan -2.5 @ Eastern Michigan
UL Monroe -5.5 vs Arkansas State
So there are two games that are not only Sagarin friendly but revenge match ups too - Iowa @ Purdue and Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan. I hate taking bad teams on the road and Western is pretty bad so I will use my
first Mega Bet on:
The big draw will be LSU @ Bama. This game has gone a long way to determining the national championship for several years now and this year figures to be no different. What is different is the improvement on the offensive side for both teams. What used to be an easy under game is now not so easy. There should be more points racked up this year than you might expect.
I’m restocking the booze cabinet (the Sax Man and friends drained the last of the Irish last week) and making a grocery run too. Should be a good time.
What hasn’t been a good time is the picks this year. For the first time in several years I came away a loser in Vegas. Now Pete and Pat will tell you I’ve been a loser ever since they met me 35+ years ago but I’m referring to the monetary ledger.
Time to turn things around. One trend I have noticed is how well picking using the Sagarin rating. As I was telling Bruce during the 2013 GO JUMBO weekend – the Sagarin rating is a measure using past performance to predict the spread of games. When I take the difference between the team ratings (adding 3 to the home team) it generates a predicted spread. If that calculation varies significantly from the Vegas spread there is a potential
betting opportunity.
As an example – last week Fresno State hosted Nevada. Fresno State’s Sagarin rating was 73. Since they were home add 3 to get 76. Nevada’s rating was 62 for a difference of 14. The spread was 20.5 or 6.5 points greater than the rating. Taking Nevada was an opportunity (Fresno State was giving too many points) according to the Sagarin ratings. The final score was Fresno State 41 Nevada 23. Nevada covered – a win for Sagarin.
By going with teams where the Sagarin rating was 3 or more points greater than the Vegas spread – over the last three weeks has gone 36-23-2 or 61% . Pretty damn good. This week the Sagarin plus three games are (Sagarin
favored teams listed first)
Stanford +10.5 vs Oregon (Stanford covered – great game)
Wake Forest +34.5 vs Florida State
Iowa -15.0 @ Purdue
Kansas +31 @ Oklahoma State
UAB +23.5 @ Marshall
Tulane +9.0 @ UT San Antonio
Army +6.5 vs Western Kentucky
Western Michigan -2.5 @ Eastern Michigan
Colorado +28.0 @ Washington
Missouri -13.5 @ Kentucky.
In the revenge games (where the favored team lost last year) there are
Oregon -10.5 @ Stanford (in direct contradiction to the Sagarin rating)
Iowa -15.0 @ Purdue
Texas Tech -3.0 vs Kansas State
Texas -6.5 @ West Virginia
Western Michigan -2.5 @ Eastern Michigan
UL Monroe -5.5 vs Arkansas State
So there are two games that are not only Sagarin friendly but revenge match ups too - Iowa @ Purdue and Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan. I hate taking bad teams on the road and Western is pretty bad so I will use my
first Mega Bet on:

Iowa -15.0 @ Purdue. I'll just go with the Sagarin rating and revenge match up and see what happens. Statistically Purdue is 1-5 as a home dog while Iowa is 3-0 on the road against the spread
Since in a head to head matchup between revenge game vs Sagarin – Sagarin won (i.e. Oregon @ Stanford) – I will go with the Sagarin rating for my next matchup
Missouri -13.5 @ Kentucky – Here’s a situation where the favored team is not giving enough points. Not sure why Vegas is down on the Tigers. They rebounded strongly after losing to South Carolina by pounding Tennessee 31-3. Kentucky is worse than Tennessee and is vulnerable through the air. If the Tigers win out the are in the SEC championship game so they aren’t going to overlook the Wildcats. Getting
the half point hook is appealing too. Kentucky is 0-4 as a home dog ATS while Missouri is 6-1 on the road.
For the pro game I’ll go with
San Francisco 6.0 vs Carolina – Cam Newton has been on a tear lately destroying Atlanta, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Minnesota over the last four weeks. As he is want to do it’s going to his head. The last time he faced a solid defense he was losing to Arizona. San Francisco has a solid defense.
The Niners have won five in a row against the spread and are 12-3 ATS since late 2012. I like that trend
Here are all the week 11 picks with spreads, times networks and Sagarin ratings
Since in a head to head matchup between revenge game vs Sagarin – Sagarin won (i.e. Oregon @ Stanford) – I will go with the Sagarin rating for my next matchup
Missouri -13.5 @ Kentucky – Here’s a situation where the favored team is not giving enough points. Not sure why Vegas is down on the Tigers. They rebounded strongly after losing to South Carolina by pounding Tennessee 31-3. Kentucky is worse than Tennessee and is vulnerable through the air. If the Tigers win out the are in the SEC championship game so they aren’t going to overlook the Wildcats. Getting
the half point hook is appealing too. Kentucky is 0-4 as a home dog ATS while Missouri is 6-1 on the road.
For the pro game I’ll go with
San Francisco 6.0 vs Carolina – Cam Newton has been on a tear lately destroying Atlanta, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Minnesota over the last four weeks. As he is want to do it’s going to his head. The last time he faced a solid defense he was losing to Arizona. San Francisco has a solid defense.
The Niners have won five in a row against the spread and are 12-3 ATS since late 2012. I like that trend
Here are all the week 11 picks with spreads, times networks and Sagarin ratings

Week 11 Bettors Guide |
The Sheriff has weighed in with his picks
Stanford (+10.5) over Oregon. This is a tough call but I’m taking the home team and the points. I think Oregon will win but I like Stanford to cover. (he made this pick Weds)
Minnesota (-2) over Penn State. The Sheriff is jumping on the Golden Gopher’s bandwagon.
Wyoming (+9) over Fresno State. Every week the pressure on Fresno State to remain undefeated builds. At an
elevation of 7,220 feet, War Memorial Stadium is the highest Division 1 football field in the country. What does this all add up to? I don’t know but I’m picking the Cowboys because I dig their helmets.
Remember the 2014 GO JUMBO weekend is November 15, 2014 at the LVH