Eat large or go home! Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. The Doofus will have a multitude of kids, grandkids and exchange students over for a massive feast. Jason has agreed to host as long as we bring over the food and take the kids home when we are done. Agreed.
While he is cooking, I’ll be grabbing the best spot on the sofa with some Irish in a tumbler to watch the Lions take on the bumbling Bears for the annual Turkey Day game.
After the game, its some gut busting portions of food and then back for some more football.
Lots of great Rivalry Games on this weekend which makes the action even dicier than normal.
Last week the Big Book of Guesses had a pretty good weekend going 38-31-1 or 55%. The late season picking is picking up again.
On the Top 25 picks I went even better at 10-5. Very nice.
I'll see if the good picking on the Top 25 continues by taking
While he is cooking, I’ll be grabbing the best spot on the sofa with some Irish in a tumbler to watch the Lions take on the bumbling Bears for the annual Turkey Day game.
After the game, its some gut busting portions of food and then back for some more football.
Lots of great Rivalry Games on this weekend which makes the action even dicier than normal.
Last week the Big Book of Guesses had a pretty good weekend going 38-31-1 or 55%. The late season picking is picking up again.
On the Top 25 picks I went even better at 10-5. Very nice.
I'll see if the good picking on the Top 25 continues by taking
Hey Saban! Got a second? 14. Auburn +9.5 @ 1. Alabama – Huge revenge game for Bama. Auburn fans have :01 stickers on their cars to poke a stick in Saban’s eye for calling a timeout with one second left to go for the FG last year. Normally, I would be al over the revenge factor at home but I fear the wrath of the Big Guy if I took Bama so WDE it is.
2. Oregon -19.5 @ Oregon State – Another large spread for a rivalry game. Last year’s spread was about the same (22.0) and it turned out to be a one point win by the Ducks. But that was an anomaly. Ducks are a covering machine going 5-0-1 ATS while OSU is 2-9. Ducks want the style points and avenge the near miss last year. I’ll pick the Ducks but root for the Beavers.
Florida +7.5 @ 3. Florida State – I wouldn't be surprised if Winston is shaving points. He lets teams get ahead and then stages a huge come back. So, the question is will he do the same in a rivalry game? I’ll go with no and take the Noles to cover.
4. Mississippi State -2.0 @ 8. Ole Miss – Could be the best game of the weekend. I would love to see the SEC positioning in the playoffs get all screwed up with a Rebel win here, a War eagle win (naturally) over the Tide and then the SEC East team win the championship game. But the handicapper says take the away team when the spread is 3.0 or less so I’ll take the Bulldogs (but root for the Rebs). The other MSU is 7-0 ATS on the road while Ole Miss is 0-4 ATS last four.
5. TCU -6.5 @ Texas – TCU’s improvement on offense is incredible – leading the nation in increased yards year over year (197) and points (21). But Charlie Strong’s defense is stout. They have only allowed one passing TD over the last four games and 9 all year. TCU is fading just a bit going 1-2 ATS over the last three. I’ll take the Horn’s defense to keep this game within a TD at home.
Michigan +21.0 @ 6. Ohio State – As Bruce would say – I’ll be rooting for the earth to open up and swallow both these teams (He also wants them sent somewhere too but I’ll be nice). Strictly from a betting stand point the spread is too big so I’ll pick against Ohio State.
7. Baylor -25.0 @ Texas Tech – Another huge spread but Texas Tech is a disaster right now (no, a win over Iowa State doesn’t count) and Baylor is humming. The last time the Red Raiders got 20 points they lost 82-27 to TCU. Baylor might not get 82 but they will try. I’ll lay the points.
Stanford +5.0 @ 9. UCLA – UCLA’s win over USC impressed me and Stanford is missing their best player in WR Ty Montgomery.The tree is 1-5 ATS on the road. I’ll lay the points and take the Bruins at home.
2. Oregon -19.5 @ Oregon State – Another large spread for a rivalry game. Last year’s spread was about the same (22.0) and it turned out to be a one point win by the Ducks. But that was an anomaly. Ducks are a covering machine going 5-0-1 ATS while OSU is 2-9. Ducks want the style points and avenge the near miss last year. I’ll pick the Ducks but root for the Beavers.
Florida +7.5 @ 3. Florida State – I wouldn't be surprised if Winston is shaving points. He lets teams get ahead and then stages a huge come back. So, the question is will he do the same in a rivalry game? I’ll go with no and take the Noles to cover.
4. Mississippi State -2.0 @ 8. Ole Miss – Could be the best game of the weekend. I would love to see the SEC positioning in the playoffs get all screwed up with a Rebel win here, a War eagle win (naturally) over the Tide and then the SEC East team win the championship game. But the handicapper says take the away team when the spread is 3.0 or less so I’ll take the Bulldogs (but root for the Rebs). The other MSU is 7-0 ATS on the road while Ole Miss is 0-4 ATS last four.
5. TCU -6.5 @ Texas – TCU’s improvement on offense is incredible – leading the nation in increased yards year over year (197) and points (21). But Charlie Strong’s defense is stout. They have only allowed one passing TD over the last four games and 9 all year. TCU is fading just a bit going 1-2 ATS over the last three. I’ll take the Horn’s defense to keep this game within a TD at home.
Michigan +21.0 @ 6. Ohio State – As Bruce would say – I’ll be rooting for the earth to open up and swallow both these teams (He also wants them sent somewhere too but I’ll be nice). Strictly from a betting stand point the spread is too big so I’ll pick against Ohio State.
7. Baylor -25.0 @ Texas Tech – Another huge spread but Texas Tech is a disaster right now (no, a win over Iowa State doesn’t count) and Baylor is humming. The last time the Red Raiders got 20 points they lost 82-27 to TCU. Baylor might not get 82 but they will try. I’ll lay the points.
Stanford +5.0 @ 9. UCLA – UCLA’s win over USC impressed me and Stanford is missing their best player in WR Ty Montgomery.The tree is 1-5 ATS on the road. I’ll lay the points and take the Bruins at home.
DeAndre Smelter - Da Smelter! 18. Georgia Tech +12.5 @ 10. Georgia – Good old fashioned hate. Last year the Doofus, the Bruces and the Sax Man watched the Jackets lose in double OT. This year, GT’s passing and defense are better.Tech is 6-2 ATS and 4-1 on the road. Georgia is 4-7 as a home favorite. It’s the first time since 1942 that both teams come in with 9 wins or more. I’ll take the points.
11. Michigan State -13.0 @ Penn State – Of course I’ll lay the points here. Spartans will dominate over an offensively challenged Nits. Spartans are 11-3 ATS as a visitor. Go Green.
Kansas+28.0 @ 12. Kansas State – Too many points for me. Kansas is losing but still playing with heart. Trends say take KSU as they are 15-6 ATS at home and 7-1 ATS their last eight. But, I’ll take the JayHawks to keep it within 4 TDs
13. Arizona State PK @ 15. Arizona – Another great game. Key game in the PAC 12 South. The visitor has covered the last four games and ASU us 8-2 ATS in Tucson. Take the away team in this scenario so Forks are the picks.
25 Minnesota +14.0 @ 16. Wisconsin – Minnesota is peaking late. The spread jumped when star Minny RD David Cobb went down with a hammy last week. But I think Gophers will find a way to keep this game within 2 TDs Minnesota is 9-3 ATS as a dog and is 5-2 ATS in the series. Goofers are the pick.
17. Utah -9.5 @ Colorado – Utah was blown out at home last week by Zona. Can they recover on the road? Tough call so when in doubt take the points. Colorado is 8-3 ATS at home and 3-0 ATS vs Utah. I’ll take the Buffs.
11. Michigan State -13.0 @ Penn State – Of course I’ll lay the points here. Spartans will dominate over an offensively challenged Nits. Spartans are 11-3 ATS as a visitor. Go Green.
Kansas+28.0 @ 12. Kansas State – Too many points for me. Kansas is losing but still playing with heart. Trends say take KSU as they are 15-6 ATS at home and 7-1 ATS their last eight. But, I’ll take the JayHawks to keep it within 4 TDs
13. Arizona State PK @ 15. Arizona – Another great game. Key game in the PAC 12 South. The visitor has covered the last four games and ASU us 8-2 ATS in Tucson. Take the away team in this scenario so Forks are the picks.
25 Minnesota +14.0 @ 16. Wisconsin – Minnesota is peaking late. The spread jumped when star Minny RD David Cobb went down with a hammy last week. But I think Gophers will find a way to keep this game within 2 TDs Minnesota is 9-3 ATS as a dog and is 5-2 ATS in the series. Goofers are the pick.
17. Utah -9.5 @ Colorado – Utah was blown out at home last week by Zona. Can they recover on the road? Tough call so when in doubt take the points. Colorado is 8-3 ATS at home and 3-0 ATS vs Utah. I’ll take the Buffs.
And.......Miss. He missed it! Notre Dame +7.0 @ 19. USC – Both teams are reeling. Domers are in free fall right now and USC just lost their Super Bowl to UCLA. Normally I would take the points but I don’t think the Domer D can keep this game close. And now the ND special teams are floundering. FG Kicker Kyle Brindza, has hit an anemic 13-of-22 field goals this season. A week ago in the loss to Northwestern, he missed two field goals, including a crucial overtime try, and an extra point that was taken back the other way. Last Saturday, he missed wide right on a 32-yard attempt that would have sent the Louisville game to overtime. I’ll take the Trojans
Arkansas -2.0 @ 20. Missouri – Huge game for the SEC east. Mizzou wins they are the champs. Lose and it’s Georgia. Arkansas could be the hottest team in the country right now. The Hogs have pitched consecutive shutouts over LSU and Ole Miss, the first time an unranked team has pull off the feat versus ranked opponents in NCAA history. I’ll stick with Bielema’s boys again this week.
South Carolina +4.5 @ 22. Clemson – Clemson’s defense is outstanding (#1 in the country) but the offense is struggling without QB Deshaun Watson. South Carolina can’t stop anyone with a pulse this year. They’ve given up 42 points or more in four of their five losses. The trends say take the Cocks as Clemson is 0-6 ATS while South Carolina is 3-0 as a dog. In fact, underdogs are 10-1 in SC games this year. But I’ll take the better defense at home.
Kentucky +13.0 @ 24. Louisville – Another large spread for a rivalry game but laying the points behind Louisville’s defense is the way to go. Kentucky’s defense? How about 113 points over the last two games. Cats are 1-5 ATS on the road, Cards are 4-1 at home. Petrino has owned Kentucky going 4-0. Cardinals are the pick.
23. Nebraska PK @ Iowa – Ameer is slowly getting back to form. And it’s a revenge game for the Huskers after last year’s 38-17 rout. Iowa is 5-12-1 as a home favorite while Nebraska is 4-1 as a road dog. I’ll take the Huskers to get their running game going again and save Bo’s job.
Arkansas -2.0 @ 20. Missouri – Huge game for the SEC east. Mizzou wins they are the champs. Lose and it’s Georgia. Arkansas could be the hottest team in the country right now. The Hogs have pitched consecutive shutouts over LSU and Ole Miss, the first time an unranked team has pull off the feat versus ranked opponents in NCAA history. I’ll stick with Bielema’s boys again this week.
South Carolina +4.5 @ 22. Clemson – Clemson’s defense is outstanding (#1 in the country) but the offense is struggling without QB Deshaun Watson. South Carolina can’t stop anyone with a pulse this year. They’ve given up 42 points or more in four of their five losses. The trends say take the Cocks as Clemson is 0-6 ATS while South Carolina is 3-0 as a dog. In fact, underdogs are 10-1 in SC games this year. But I’ll take the better defense at home.
Kentucky +13.0 @ 24. Louisville – Another large spread for a rivalry game but laying the points behind Louisville’s defense is the way to go. Kentucky’s defense? How about 113 points over the last two games. Cats are 1-5 ATS on the road, Cards are 4-1 at home. Petrino has owned Kentucky going 4-0. Cardinals are the pick.
23. Nebraska PK @ Iowa – Ameer is slowly getting back to form. And it’s a revenge game for the Huskers after last year’s 38-17 rout. Iowa is 5-12-1 as a home favorite while Nebraska is 4-1 as a road dog. I’ll take the Huskers to get their running game going again and save Bo’s job.
Arizona sacked Russell Wilson an amazing 7 times last week For the Mega Bets I’ll take
Week 14 Mega Bets
Michigan State -13.5 @ Penn State - Spartans will roll past an inept Lions offense
Arizona -2.5 @ Atlanta – Matt Ryan is going to be running for his life against a Cardinal defense that is healthy again. Patrick Peterson will keep Julio in check leading to more sacks of Matty Ice.
The Cardinals have 17 sacks over the last three games. Compare that to the Falcons sad 15 sacks all year.
Coach Mike Smith will mismanage the end game again as the Cardinals roll.
Detroit -7.0 vs Chicago – What’s wrong with the Lions offense? They have Megatron back!? The problem is they have faced elite pass defenses in Arizona and New England. Now they face a pathetic Bears pass defense. Calvin and Tate are going to take off this week.
And even if Chicago plays up to their talent level they are facing a great Lions defense. Brady torched them last week but Cutler is no Brady and will pack it in somewhere in the third quarter.
The Lions are 12-3 after losing by 20+ points. The Lions will kick off a great Thanksgiving Day
The Sheriff’s troubles continued as he went 1-2 once again last week with his picks.
Cal (+5.5) over Stanford - Not even close. Stanford jumped to a 24-7 halftime lead lead and was never challenged. Cal turned it over 5 times and another time on downs as drives continually stalled.
Even without star WR Ty Montgomery- lost in the 1st quarter with a shoulder injury, the Cardinal had no trouble moving the ball on the PAC 12’s worst defense. A defense missing its starting safety who was ejected for targeting on the very first play.
Stanford has now won the Big Game five years in a row. Final score – Stanford 38 Cal 17 LOSS Heart bet gone wrong.
Week 14 Mega Bets
Michigan State -13.5 @ Penn State - Spartans will roll past an inept Lions offense
Arizona -2.5 @ Atlanta – Matt Ryan is going to be running for his life against a Cardinal defense that is healthy again. Patrick Peterson will keep Julio in check leading to more sacks of Matty Ice.
The Cardinals have 17 sacks over the last three games. Compare that to the Falcons sad 15 sacks all year.
Coach Mike Smith will mismanage the end game again as the Cardinals roll.
Detroit -7.0 vs Chicago – What’s wrong with the Lions offense? They have Megatron back!? The problem is they have faced elite pass defenses in Arizona and New England. Now they face a pathetic Bears pass defense. Calvin and Tate are going to take off this week.
And even if Chicago plays up to their talent level they are facing a great Lions defense. Brady torched them last week but Cutler is no Brady and will pack it in somewhere in the third quarter.
The Lions are 12-3 after losing by 20+ points. The Lions will kick off a great Thanksgiving Day
The Sheriff’s troubles continued as he went 1-2 once again last week with his picks.
Cal (+5.5) over Stanford - Not even close. Stanford jumped to a 24-7 halftime lead lead and was never challenged. Cal turned it over 5 times and another time on downs as drives continually stalled.
Even without star WR Ty Montgomery- lost in the 1st quarter with a shoulder injury, the Cardinal had no trouble moving the ball on the PAC 12’s worst defense. A defense missing its starting safety who was ejected for targeting on the very first play.
Stanford has now won the Big Game five years in a row. Final score – Stanford 38 Cal 17 LOSS Heart bet gone wrong.
UCLA pummeled USC UCLA (-3.5) over USC. – UCLA QB Brett Hundley’s first pass was a pick six. Things were looking good for USC. But Hundley was not shaken. He calmy led the Bruins to a 38-14 lead after three quarters. The UCLA defense was back to form in holding USC to 276 total yards in a 38-20 romp WIN. One of my few Top 25 losses. Should have listened to the Sheriff.
Utah (-4) over Arizona – Who would have thought a team from Arizona would outplay Utah in a driving rain. The Zona defense forced four turnovers including a scoop six and a pick six in an blow out 42-10 win LOSS
The Sheriff will be digesting several pounds of turkey and fixings and watching his picks of
UCLA (-5) over Stanford. Stanford’s best (actually only) offensive weapon, Ty Montgomery, will not be playing in this game. That’s bad news for the Cardinal as UCLA’s defense has improved steadily as the year has progressed. UCLA has lost 3 straight to Stanford during the Jim Mora era, but I don’t see how Stanford is going to score in this game. The Bruins should win this one fairly easily.
Cal (-4) over BYU. Cal laid an egg last week in the Big Game but they can still get to a bowl game with a win against the Mormons. BYU is 7-4 and has already accepted a bid to play in the inaugural Miami Beach Bowl so it has far less to play for. Sonny Dyke’s team desperately needs the additional practices it would earn with a Bowl berth so I’m betting the Bears will be HIGHLY motivated to close out their regular season with a win.
USC (-7) over Notre Dame. The Condoms were embarrassed last week against UCLA (the score was not indicative of how lopsided that game really was), and I’m betting they will be pissed off and ready to beat their other big rival, the Fighting Papists. Sark can’t afford to lose to ND and UCLA in the same year, and 8-4 feels a whole lot better than 7-5.
And here are all this weekends games, spreads, picks and much much more
Utah (-4) over Arizona – Who would have thought a team from Arizona would outplay Utah in a driving rain. The Zona defense forced four turnovers including a scoop six and a pick six in an blow out 42-10 win LOSS
The Sheriff will be digesting several pounds of turkey and fixings and watching his picks of
UCLA (-5) over Stanford. Stanford’s best (actually only) offensive weapon, Ty Montgomery, will not be playing in this game. That’s bad news for the Cardinal as UCLA’s defense has improved steadily as the year has progressed. UCLA has lost 3 straight to Stanford during the Jim Mora era, but I don’t see how Stanford is going to score in this game. The Bruins should win this one fairly easily.
Cal (-4) over BYU. Cal laid an egg last week in the Big Game but they can still get to a bowl game with a win against the Mormons. BYU is 7-4 and has already accepted a bid to play in the inaugural Miami Beach Bowl so it has far less to play for. Sonny Dyke’s team desperately needs the additional practices it would earn with a Bowl berth so I’m betting the Bears will be HIGHLY motivated to close out their regular season with a win.
USC (-7) over Notre Dame. The Condoms were embarrassed last week against UCLA (the score was not indicative of how lopsided that game really was), and I’m betting they will be pissed off and ready to beat their other big rival, the Fighting Papists. Sark can’t afford to lose to ND and UCLA in the same year, and 8-4 feels a whole lot better than 7-5.
And here are all this weekends games, spreads, picks and much much more
| Week 14 Bettors Guide |
Remeber the 2015 GO JUMBO trip is November 7, 2015 at the Westgate Resort
