UPDATE: The Big Flippy has carefully weighed all the odds and randomly selected in the college games:
LSU +6.5 @ Bama
TCU +2.0 vs Baylor
TX -7.0 vs Kansas State
Purdon’t +2.5 @ Northwestern
Wisconsin -9.5 vs Iowa
ASU +2.0 @ Southern Cal
In the NFL, the flippy is flopping with:
Carolina +5.0 @ Green bay
KC -3.5 @ Tennessee
Minnesota +3.0 @ Dallas
Seattle +6.5 @ San Francisco
Also the metric added a new entry today with:
Southern Cal -2.5 @ Arizona State - The Sheriff likes the Forks but the metric disagrees. I'll go with the metric for a quatloo.
LSU +6.5 @ Bama
TCU +2.0 vs Baylor
TX -7.0 vs Kansas State
Purdon’t +2.5 @ Northwestern
Wisconsin -9.5 vs Iowa
ASU +2.0 @ Southern Cal
In the NFL, the flippy is flopping with:
Carolina +5.0 @ Green bay
KC -3.5 @ Tennessee
Minnesota +3.0 @ Dallas
Seattle +6.5 @ San Francisco
Also the metric added a new entry today with:
Southern Cal -2.5 @ Arizona State - The Sheriff likes the Forks but the metric disagrees. I'll go with the metric for a quatloo.
PJ is feeling it after signing an extension It’s going to be a huge weekend in football.
But first a correction. I got a blistering email from the Sheriff questioning my parentage and impugning what little character I’ve been able to retain. He says that he had went 2-1 not 0-3 last weekend. He is correct. I had a formula error in my spreadsheet. And while he did ask for a correction, he did not ask for an apology so none will be forthcoming.
You can forget about PJ Fleck as a candidate for MSU HC if Dantonio retires, not that he was on the radar. Minnesota was so excited about his 8-0 record against teams from straight from the Hostess factory that they signed him to a seven year extension with a “significant” raise with a sliding buyout. That’s a lot of oars.
The Goofers weren’t trying to hold off MSU but more likely Florida State. It’s no coincidence that they signed the extension a couple of days after Willie Taggart was let go.
But first a correction. I got a blistering email from the Sheriff questioning my parentage and impugning what little character I’ve been able to retain. He says that he had went 2-1 not 0-3 last weekend. He is correct. I had a formula error in my spreadsheet. And while he did ask for a correction, he did not ask for an apology so none will be forthcoming.
You can forget about PJ Fleck as a candidate for MSU HC if Dantonio retires, not that he was on the radar. Minnesota was so excited about his 8-0 record against teams from straight from the Hostess factory that they signed him to a seven year extension with a “significant” raise with a sliding buyout. That’s a lot of oars.
The Goofers weren’t trying to hold off MSU but more likely Florida State. It’s no coincidence that they signed the extension a couple of days after Willie Taggart was let go.
Baylor deserves a spot if they remain undefeated The initial CFP rankings were issued – some thoughts.
Two Big Ten teams (Ohio State and Penn State) vs two SEC teams (Bama and LSU) in the playoffs? It won’t end up that way but would be cool if it did.
Clemson is sitting just outside at 5? If they win out they are in. Bama vs LSU this week and OSU Penn State on the 23rd should open up a couple of slots.
If Georgia wins out including wins over Auburn and the SEC championship, they will take the other spot. But a second loss opens it up to the PAC 12. Utah and Oregon are hanging around.
If Baylor wins out including a win over Oklahoma next week, they will get a long look at nabbing a spot.
Theoretically, Minnesota would be in if they win out. They won’t. When the Penn State bus leaves Minneapolis on Saturday, they will take the Goofers playoff dreams with them.
Everyone else will need a lot of help. They either have multiple losses already (Florida, Auburn, scUM) or a bad loss (Oklahoma)
Kudos to the American. They have four teams in the ranking, Cincinnati, Memphis, Navy and SMU. Cincinnati is in the driver’s seat for the Group of Five spot in the New Years Six.
How did Oklahoma State get in with three losses to #12 Baylor, unranked Texas and unranked Texas Tech? Texas A&M has three losses to #3 Bama, #5 Clemson and #11 Auburn. They deserve that spot at 23.
Two Big Ten teams (Ohio State and Penn State) vs two SEC teams (Bama and LSU) in the playoffs? It won’t end up that way but would be cool if it did.
Clemson is sitting just outside at 5? If they win out they are in. Bama vs LSU this week and OSU Penn State on the 23rd should open up a couple of slots.
If Georgia wins out including wins over Auburn and the SEC championship, they will take the other spot. But a second loss opens it up to the PAC 12. Utah and Oregon are hanging around.
If Baylor wins out including a win over Oklahoma next week, they will get a long look at nabbing a spot.
Theoretically, Minnesota would be in if they win out. They won’t. When the Penn State bus leaves Minneapolis on Saturday, they will take the Goofers playoff dreams with them.
Everyone else will need a lot of help. They either have multiple losses already (Florida, Auburn, scUM) or a bad loss (Oklahoma)
Kudos to the American. They have four teams in the ranking, Cincinnati, Memphis, Navy and SMU. Cincinnati is in the driver’s seat for the Group of Five spot in the New Years Six.
How did Oklahoma State get in with three losses to #12 Baylor, unranked Texas and unranked Texas Tech? Texas A&M has three losses to #3 Bama, #5 Clemson and #11 Auburn. They deserve that spot at 23.
Terrace Marshall leads a trio of superb Tiger WRs The game has been red circled since the schedule came out. It’s the biggest game on a weekend full of games with playoff implications. Gameday will be in Tua-caloosa for:
Alabama -6.5 vs LSU – Will Tua play? Tagovailoa suffered a high ankle sprain in Alabama's 35-13 win over Tennessee on Oct. 19, and underwent what's known as a "tightrope" surgical procedure to accelerate the healing process.
Tua, sat out the Tide's 48-7 thrashing of Arkansas on Oct. 26. Backup Mac Jones was impressive throwing for 3TDs. Tagovailoa's brother Taulia even got a chance to play in mop up duty. Last week the Tide had a bye giving Tua more time to heal. Saban has been cagey about whether he will play.
LSU has lost eight straight in the series but Ed Oregeron looks to finally have an offense to challenge the Tide’s usual stout defense. The Terrific Trio wide receivers Terrace Marshall, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, have helped propel quarterback Joe Burrow into the Heisman Trophy race alongside Tua Tagovailoa. A win Saturday will put Burrow in the pole position.
This is the first time the top two teams in the AP Top 25 poll are meeting since then #1 LSU won a defensive slugfest 9-6 in an OT win over Bama back in 2011. It was also the last time the Tigers got the better of their former coach as Alabama has since reeled off eight straight wins since.
Alabama -6.5 vs LSU – Will Tua play? Tagovailoa suffered a high ankle sprain in Alabama's 35-13 win over Tennessee on Oct. 19, and underwent what's known as a "tightrope" surgical procedure to accelerate the healing process.
Tua, sat out the Tide's 48-7 thrashing of Arkansas on Oct. 26. Backup Mac Jones was impressive throwing for 3TDs. Tagovailoa's brother Taulia even got a chance to play in mop up duty. Last week the Tide had a bye giving Tua more time to heal. Saban has been cagey about whether he will play.
LSU has lost eight straight in the series but Ed Oregeron looks to finally have an offense to challenge the Tide’s usual stout defense. The Terrific Trio wide receivers Terrace Marshall, Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, have helped propel quarterback Joe Burrow into the Heisman Trophy race alongside Tua Tagovailoa. A win Saturday will put Burrow in the pole position.
This is the first time the top two teams in the AP Top 25 poll are meeting since then #1 LSU won a defensive slugfest 9-6 in an OT win over Bama back in 2011. It was also the last time the Tigers got the better of their former coach as Alabama has since reeled off eight straight wins since.
Smith and Ibrahim look to challenge the PSU rush defense The metric likes the Tide to make it nine straight. I’ll follow the metric and put down a Mega Bet. But I’ll be rooting for the Bayeux Bengals. I bought Mrs. H a prop bet for LSU to win the CFP championship game. She’s hosting down at Coastal Command. Don’t want to be a rude guest.
Penn State -6.5 @ Minnesota – The Goofers will finally be sitting at the grown up table. The marquee matchup will be Minny’s thunder and lightning RBs Rodney Smith and Mohamed Ibrahim against Penn State’s #2 rushing defense.
But the game will be decided when Penn State has the ball. The Nit’s offense is OK, it struggled against Pitt and Iowa, but it’s still the best offense Minnesota has faced so far.
Minnesota will come out fired up. It will be a better game than most expect but Penn State will end up with the win and cover. I’m in for a Mini Mega.
The Sheriff agrees
Penn State -6.5 @ Minnesota – The Goofers will finally be sitting at the grown up table. The marquee matchup will be Minny’s thunder and lightning RBs Rodney Smith and Mohamed Ibrahim against Penn State’s #2 rushing defense.
But the game will be decided when Penn State has the ball. The Nit’s offense is OK, it struggled against Pitt and Iowa, but it’s still the best offense Minnesota has faced so far.
Minnesota will come out fired up. It will be a better game than most expect but Penn State will end up with the win and cover. I’m in for a Mini Mega.
The Sheriff agrees
TCU +2.0 vs Baylor – Baylor is on a roll, 8-0, (10 straight going back to last year) #12 in the CFP rankings, it’s been quite a ride so far for Matt Rhule and his gang. The are doing it with a strong running game, ferocious pass rush and ability to force turnovers.
TCU has lost three of their last four but the losses were on the road. When they were last at home they upset Texas.
The public is pounding the Bears so I’ll take TCU at home. No quatloos though.
TCU has lost three of their last four but the losses were on the road. When they were last at home they upset Texas.
The public is pounding the Bears so I’ll take TCU at home. No quatloos though.
2015 versus Nebraska - that's why you never bet on State The metric had some “interesting” picks. Besides Bama, which I can see, it also likes:
Michigan State -14.5 vs Illinois - I’m not betting that one for two reasons. First, the metric seems to stray in the 14-21 point range. Air Force bore that out last week.
Second, and more importantly, I refuse to bet on State after the fiasco versus Nebraska in 2015 and the blow out to Ohio state in 2017. Just won’t do it.
The other metric picks are:
Texas -7.0 vs Kansas State – every indication is that Kansas state should be the pick. Texas is struggling as of late. It lost to Oklahoma and TCU sandwiched around a narrow two point win over Kansas. KSU beat all three.
But I’ll stick with the metric for a Mini Mega
Michigan State -14.5 vs Illinois - I’m not betting that one for two reasons. First, the metric seems to stray in the 14-21 point range. Air Force bore that out last week.
Second, and more importantly, I refuse to bet on State after the fiasco versus Nebraska in 2015 and the blow out to Ohio state in 2017. Just won’t do it.
The other metric picks are:
Texas -7.0 vs Kansas State – every indication is that Kansas state should be the pick. Texas is struggling as of late. It lost to Oklahoma and TCU sandwiched around a narrow two point win over Kansas. KSU beat all three.
But I’ll stick with the metric for a Mini Mega
Northwestern is dead last in scoring Northwestern -2.5 vs Purdue - Another head scratcher by the metric. The Cats score about as much as Hole Members at a Victoria Secret party. Northwestern is dead last in scoring.
But Purdue is down to its third string QB and the Cat defense is the real deal. I’ll go with a Mega Bet on Bruce’s Boys.
I’ll go with a couple old fashioned non metric Mega Bets with:
Green Bay -5.0 vs Carolina – the Pack was embarrassed last week Aaron even called out his team for lack of focus.
Rodgers is fantastic in bounce back situations going 28-15 ATS after a loss. Carolina is about to fell the wrath.
Kansas City -3.5 vs Tennessee - Looks like Mahomes will be back for the game. The Chiefs have been playing well since the return of Tyreek Hill. Now with Mahomes back they should torch the fading Titans.
I'll also go with some Mini Megas on
Wisconsin -9.5 vs Iowa - Bucky will look like the scUM/MSU version at hone against the punchless Hawkeyes
Dallas -2.0 vs Minnesota - Cousins folds in big games. This is a big game.
San Francisco -6.5 vs Seattle - the NIners are the class of the NFC right now. The defense will contain Russell Wilson
But Purdue is down to its third string QB and the Cat defense is the real deal. I’ll go with a Mega Bet on Bruce’s Boys.
I’ll go with a couple old fashioned non metric Mega Bets with:
Green Bay -5.0 vs Carolina – the Pack was embarrassed last week Aaron even called out his team for lack of focus.
Rodgers is fantastic in bounce back situations going 28-15 ATS after a loss. Carolina is about to fell the wrath.
Kansas City -3.5 vs Tennessee - Looks like Mahomes will be back for the game. The Chiefs have been playing well since the return of Tyreek Hill. Now with Mahomes back they should torch the fading Titans.
I'll also go with some Mini Megas on
Wisconsin -9.5 vs Iowa - Bucky will look like the scUM/MSU version at hone against the punchless Hawkeyes
Dallas -2.0 vs Minnesota - Cousins folds in big games. This is a big game.
San Francisco -6.5 vs Seattle - the NIners are the class of the NFC right now. The defense will contain Russell Wilson
The Beavers are on a roll It’s been awhile since I’ve done a Point Whore Parlay. I’m a little rusty but these should work:
Georgia Tech +16.0 @ Virginia
Maryland +43.5 @ Ohio State
Tulsa +17.0 vs Central Florida
The Sheriff hopes to build off his 0-3 2-1 week with:
Oregon State (+10) vs Washington - The Beavs have won 3 of their last 4 and are quietly having a pretty nice year under the leadership of QB Jake Lupton (1930 passing yards, 19 TDs). Look for Oregon State to cover and possibly even pull off the upset.
Penn State (-6.5) @ Minnesota - It’s been a magical year so far for the 8-0 Minnesota Golden Gophers but reality is about to bite them in the butt. The Nittany Lions are just too talented.
Arizona State (-1.5) vs USC - The Sun Devils have suffered back-to-back losses to Utah and UCLA, but Herm’s boys will get back on track against the Condoms in the Desert. This is the beginning of the end for Clay Helton.
Georgia Tech +16.0 @ Virginia
Maryland +43.5 @ Ohio State
Tulsa +17.0 vs Central Florida
The Sheriff hopes to build off his 0-3 2-1 week with:
Oregon State (+10) vs Washington - The Beavs have won 3 of their last 4 and are quietly having a pretty nice year under the leadership of QB Jake Lupton (1930 passing yards, 19 TDs). Look for Oregon State to cover and possibly even pull off the upset.
Penn State (-6.5) @ Minnesota - It’s been a magical year so far for the 8-0 Minnesota Golden Gophers but reality is about to bite them in the butt. The Nittany Lions are just too talented.
Arizona State (-1.5) vs USC - The Sun Devils have suffered back-to-back losses to Utah and UCLA, but Herm’s boys will get back on track against the Condoms in the Desert. This is the beginning of the end for Clay Helton.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2019 Week 11 Bettors Guide
| week_11_nov_9_2019.xlsx |
Remember the 2020 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 24th at the Westgate SuperBook
