Joshua Kelley is tearing it up for UCLA UODATE
The Big Flippy says bet on;
SMU
Georgia
Army
Fresno State
Buffalo over WA
Seattle over TB
Green Bay over LAC
Before we get into the Week 10 picks – a look back at the week 9 games.
Is Chip getting things going at UCLA? RB Joshua Kelley is on a tear, pummeling Stanford for 176 yards and a TD, following it up with 164 yards and four touchdowns last week against Arizona State. The Bruins have won two straight and three of five. The Sheriff is a backer this week.
The Big 12 is self imploding. With Texas losing to TCU, Iowa State losing to Oklahoma State and the biggest upset of all, Kansas State upsetting Oklahoma, the three ranked teams in the Big 12 that played on Saturday all lost.
It’s chaos in the Coastal. With Miami (FL) upsetting Pitt and Louisville upsetting Virginia every Coastal team has at least two conference losses. The privilege of getting destroyed by Clemson in the ACC championship game is wide open.
Minnesota crushed Maryland 52-10 to improve to 8-0 SU for the first time since 1941. After starting out 0-2-1 ATS, the Golden Goofers have covered five in a row. It’s all fun and games until their matchup with Penn State in two weeks.
The Big Flippy says bet on;
SMU
Georgia
Army
Fresno State
Buffalo over WA
Seattle over TB
Green Bay over LAC
Before we get into the Week 10 picks – a look back at the week 9 games.
Is Chip getting things going at UCLA? RB Joshua Kelley is on a tear, pummeling Stanford for 176 yards and a TD, following it up with 164 yards and four touchdowns last week against Arizona State. The Bruins have won two straight and three of five. The Sheriff is a backer this week.
The Big 12 is self imploding. With Texas losing to TCU, Iowa State losing to Oklahoma State and the biggest upset of all, Kansas State upsetting Oklahoma, the three ranked teams in the Big 12 that played on Saturday all lost.
It’s chaos in the Coastal. With Miami (FL) upsetting Pitt and Louisville upsetting Virginia every Coastal team has at least two conference losses. The privilege of getting destroyed by Clemson in the ACC championship game is wide open.
Minnesota crushed Maryland 52-10 to improve to 8-0 SU for the first time since 1941. After starting out 0-2-1 ATS, the Golden Goofers have covered five in a row. It’s all fun and games until their matchup with Penn State in two weeks.
Western Kentucky covered their fifth straight too. They lost to Marshall 26-23 but were getting 6.0
It was the strangest finish in a long time. In the closing seconds, Kansas lined up for the game-winning field goal against Texas Tech. And then this happens.....
It was the strangest finish in a long time. In the closing seconds, Kansas lined up for the game-winning field goal against Texas Tech. And then this happens.....
Northwestern's offense is going nowhere TTU blocks the kick! But as they attempted to return it, the Red Raiders fumble. Kansas gets the ball back with just :01 left on the clock. With a gift second chance, the JayHawks bury the FG to win 37-34
Akron was blasted yet again, falling 49-0 at Northern Illinois. The Zips are now 0-8 SU/ATS on the season, the only team in FBS yet to cover this season.
San Diego State’s offense is nothing to shout about, but they keep on winning. With a 20-17 win over UNLV they are 7-1 SU and 7-1 Under.
As bad as the Spaztecs are the Wildcats are worse. Since a moral victory and cover at Wisconsin, the Northwestern has scored fewer points in each successive week, culminating with a 20-0 loss to Iowa in Week 9. The Cats passing efficiency (75.7) is more than 20 points worse than any other FBS offense and is on pace to be the second-worst of the decade.
Illinois is crushing it on defense It was supposed to be a let down game after beating Wisconsin but Illinois crushed Purdue 24-6. They Illini are doing it with defense. Illinois is first nationally in fumble recoveries (13), second in forced fumbles (14), second in turnovers gained (19), eighth in turnover margin (+1.13) and ninth in tackles for a loss (8.3).
What happened to Mizzou? They were upset by Kentucky 29-7. The Tigers were in first place in the SEC East at one point, but now have dropped two in a row and failed to cover the past three.
Keep an eye on Georgia State. They managed an impressive 52-33 win over Troy, moving to 6-2 SU and 5-1-2 ATS. The Panthers are now bowl eligible, too.
What happened to Mizzou? They were upset by Kentucky 29-7. The Tigers were in first place in the SEC East at one point, but now have dropped two in a row and failed to cover the past three.
Keep an eye on Georgia State. They managed an impressive 52-33 win over Troy, moving to 6-2 SU and 5-1-2 ATS. The Panthers are now bowl eligible, too.
Shane Buechele transferred from Texas and now has SMU 8th best in PPG No doubt the picks need to be better. I’m going to try a new metric. Since I made a losing bet on Virginia as a public dog, I went back to see how public dogs have fared.
Terrible! Since week 5 they have gone 3-13 ATS.
Last week they went 0-3 ATS. I bet against them, winning two quatloo bets but lost a Mini Mega when I bet on the Domers as public dog against scUM. To be fair, ND was getting a point on Thursday before GO JUMBO and by Saturday they were an actual one point favorite. So technically they weren’t a dog on Saturday. But since I use spreads as of Thursday I will count it as a public dog loss.
Using the definition of a public dog as a team getting points and 58% of the bets are on the underdog, there are three Public Dogs this week. I’ll make Mega Bets against all three (meaning I’ll take the favorites) with:
Memphis -6.0 vs SMU – SMU is arguably the biggest surprise of the 2019 college football season. No one had them at 8-0 with a visit by College Game Day gang this week. The Mustangs have a balanced offense (301 YPG passing 203 YPG rushing) that can put up the points. Their 43 PPG is 8th best.
Memphis is nearly as explosive with 282 YPG passing and 181 YPG rushing. But they have a better defense allowing 23 PPG vs SMU’s 28 PPG.
Both teams were looking ahead to the game. Last week SMU struggled to put away Houston 34-31 costing me a Mini Mega while Memphis just barely nipped Tulsa 42-41 after a missed FG.
Memphis has won five in a row in the series. The metric says six.
Terrible! Since week 5 they have gone 3-13 ATS.
Last week they went 0-3 ATS. I bet against them, winning two quatloo bets but lost a Mini Mega when I bet on the Domers as public dog against scUM. To be fair, ND was getting a point on Thursday before GO JUMBO and by Saturday they were an actual one point favorite. So technically they weren’t a dog on Saturday. But since I use spreads as of Thursday I will count it as a public dog loss.
Using the definition of a public dog as a team getting points and 58% of the bets are on the underdog, there are three Public Dogs this week. I’ll make Mega Bets against all three (meaning I’ll take the favorites) with:
Memphis -6.0 vs SMU – SMU is arguably the biggest surprise of the 2019 college football season. No one had them at 8-0 with a visit by College Game Day gang this week. The Mustangs have a balanced offense (301 YPG passing 203 YPG rushing) that can put up the points. Their 43 PPG is 8th best.
Memphis is nearly as explosive with 282 YPG passing and 181 YPG rushing. But they have a better defense allowing 23 PPG vs SMU’s 28 PPG.
Both teams were looking ahead to the game. Last week SMU struggled to put away Houston 34-31 costing me a Mini Mega while Memphis just barely nipped Tulsa 42-41 after a missed FG.
Memphis has won five in a row in the series. The metric says six.
The Georgia OL will dominate Georgia -6.0 vs Florida – The Saxy Lady will be scurrying back from the Sax Man’s rugby game. Mrs Doofus and I will be heading up to the Outdoor Ampitheatre. The fans have been down in Jacksonville since Tuesday.
It’s the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! Except that the PC police won’t let you call it that anymore. Luckily, I’m anything but PC.
After UGA’s loss to South Carolina and Florida’s win over Auburn and near miss versus LSU, the public is pounding the Gators. Georgia’s offense seems to be struggling a bit and the Florida defense is holding up against prolific attacks.
Don’t believe it. The Dawgs OL is still among the best in the business. The running game will dominate and Jake Fromm will be a cool customer in a huge rivalry game. The Dawgs will retain the Okefenokee Oar for a third straight year.
It’s the Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! Except that the PC police won’t let you call it that anymore. Luckily, I’m anything but PC.
After UGA’s loss to South Carolina and Florida’s win over Auburn and near miss versus LSU, the public is pounding the Gators. Georgia’s offense seems to be struggling a bit and the Florida defense is holding up against prolific attacks.
Don’t believe it. The Dawgs OL is still among the best in the business. The running game will dominate and Jake Fromm will be a cool customer in a huge rivalry game. The Dawgs will retain the Okefenokee Oar for a third straight year.
Air Force has a passing game too Air Force -16.0 vs Army – Air Force has won three straight including win over a good Utah State as well as Hawaii and Fresno State. For a running team, the Falcons can put up points, Their 36.6 PPG is 19th overall.
Army has lost four straight this year including to a bad San Jose State last week. Graduations have decimated the defense this year. In 2018, army was 8th in PPG allowed. This year they are way back to 44th.
Army has a great run game. Air Force's is better. Army is getting no pressure on the QB. Air Force can not only run, they can hit the deep ball too.
Army’s biggest loss this year was by 9 to Western Kentucky. It’s a rivalry game. Normally I would back the Cadets but, sorry Dwink, the metric is the metric. I’ll take the Fly Boys.
I'll lay a few Mini Megas too on
Hawaii -2.0 vs Fresno State - The Bulldogs have no pass rush. Cole McDonald will bomb away.
Washington +9.5 vs Buffalo - The Redskins OL is finally healthy. They will keep this game close.
Tampa Bay +6.0 @ Seattle - Seattle had to hang on to beat Atlanta by a TD. Tampa Bay is much better than Atlanta.
Green Bay -3.5 @ LA Chargers - Aaron Rodgers will torch the poor Charger secondary.
Army has lost four straight this year including to a bad San Jose State last week. Graduations have decimated the defense this year. In 2018, army was 8th in PPG allowed. This year they are way back to 44th.
Army has a great run game. Air Force's is better. Army is getting no pressure on the QB. Air Force can not only run, they can hit the deep ball too.
Army’s biggest loss this year was by 9 to Western Kentucky. It’s a rivalry game. Normally I would back the Cadets but, sorry Dwink, the metric is the metric. I’ll take the Fly Boys.
I'll lay a few Mini Megas too on
Hawaii -2.0 vs Fresno State - The Bulldogs have no pass rush. Cole McDonald will bomb away.
Washington +9.5 vs Buffalo - The Redskins OL is finally healthy. They will keep this game close.
Tampa Bay +6.0 @ Seattle - Seattle had to hang on to beat Atlanta by a TD. Tampa Bay is much better than Atlanta.
Green Bay -3.5 @ LA Chargers - Aaron Rodgers will torch the poor Charger secondary.
San Jose State is surprisingly competitive this year The Sheriff hopes to bounce back from a 0-3 weekend with
First off, I want to apologize for that Arizona State pick. I hope you made enough money on Sunday with your pro picks to offset my bad call on that one. If you want to bench me this week for my 0-3 performance on GO JUMBO weekend, I completely understand. If not, here are more bad picks for this week’s games.
Doofus: We will still play you. Everyone sucked on college ball. We have nowhere else to turn.
UCLA (-6) vs Colorado - Someone needs to tell Chip Kelly that the season starts on Labor Day, not Halloween. The UCLA Bruins (3-5 overall, 3-2 PAC-12) control their destiny in the PAC-12 South, and Josh Kelley is starting to look like the RB that gained over 200 yards against USC last year. Even DTR is starting to look like the 5-star QB that Bruins fans imagined he would be coming out of high school. If UCLA takes care of business against the Buffs, they will have two weeks to prepare for Utah and the battle for first place in the PAC-12 South. Imagine that.
San Jose State (+17) vs Boise State - San Jose State is 4-4 coming off an impressive win on the road against Army. The Sheriff likes the points and the Spartans at home.
Kansas (+5.5) vs Kansas State - Always take the points in a rivalry game, especially if it’s a home dog.
I'll update ths pick when the Big Flippy sends his in. Last week "The Big Flippy remotely went 10 - 11 on Saturday’s college action and rebounded with a resounding 5 - 6 on Sunday’s NFL games." A reversion to the norm.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2019 Week 10 Bettors Guide
First off, I want to apologize for that Arizona State pick. I hope you made enough money on Sunday with your pro picks to offset my bad call on that one. If you want to bench me this week for my 0-3 performance on GO JUMBO weekend, I completely understand. If not, here are more bad picks for this week’s games.
Doofus: We will still play you. Everyone sucked on college ball. We have nowhere else to turn.
UCLA (-6) vs Colorado - Someone needs to tell Chip Kelly that the season starts on Labor Day, not Halloween. The UCLA Bruins (3-5 overall, 3-2 PAC-12) control their destiny in the PAC-12 South, and Josh Kelley is starting to look like the RB that gained over 200 yards against USC last year. Even DTR is starting to look like the 5-star QB that Bruins fans imagined he would be coming out of high school. If UCLA takes care of business against the Buffs, they will have two weeks to prepare for Utah and the battle for first place in the PAC-12 South. Imagine that.
San Jose State (+17) vs Boise State - San Jose State is 4-4 coming off an impressive win on the road against Army. The Sheriff likes the points and the Spartans at home.
Kansas (+5.5) vs Kansas State - Always take the points in a rivalry game, especially if it’s a home dog.
I'll update ths pick when the Big Flippy sends his in. Last week "The Big Flippy remotely went 10 - 11 on Saturday’s college action and rebounded with a resounding 5 - 6 on Sunday’s NFL games." A reversion to the norm.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2019 Week 10 Bettors Guide
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Remember the 2020 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 24th at the Westgate SuperBook
