
The Doofus is headed to Chris' Beach Command to meet up with Mr and Mrs H and the Dobbies for a sunny weekend full of food, fun and football!
Most of the crowd will be taking peaceful romantic walks down the beach. Not me, I'll be watching some great games starting with
Oklahoma State -13.0 vs TCU – Time to slow down on the this whole - win the Bedlam, your in the playoffs thing. TCU still gets its chance in the sandbox. Okie State has blowing out everything in its path but has yet to face a quality defense. And TCU can play a little defense. Just ask Arkansas who got smothered by the Horned Frogs 28-7.
But TCU can’t afford to get off to a slow start like they did when they trailed SMU by 12 in the first half last week. I’ll stick with the Pokes for a quatloo.
Mississippi State +5.5 @ Georgia – OK, Mississippi State, you got everyone’s attention with that beat down of LSU. Now, can you keep this thing going? Win this and you're riding shotgun in the SEC.
Two weeks ago, Georgia was the team that was the talk of the town after upsetting the Domers in South Bend.
This should be a close game. I’ll take the western Dawgs and the points for a quatloo.
Most of the crowd will be taking peaceful romantic walks down the beach. Not me, I'll be watching some great games starting with
Oklahoma State -13.0 vs TCU – Time to slow down on the this whole - win the Bedlam, your in the playoffs thing. TCU still gets its chance in the sandbox. Okie State has blowing out everything in its path but has yet to face a quality defense. And TCU can play a little defense. Just ask Arkansas who got smothered by the Horned Frogs 28-7.
But TCU can’t afford to get off to a slow start like they did when they trailed SMU by 12 in the first half last week. I’ll stick with the Pokes for a quatloo.
Mississippi State +5.5 @ Georgia – OK, Mississippi State, you got everyone’s attention with that beat down of LSU. Now, can you keep this thing going? Win this and you're riding shotgun in the SEC.
Two weeks ago, Georgia was the team that was the talk of the town after upsetting the Domers in South Bend.
This should be a close game. I’ll take the western Dawgs and the points for a quatloo.

Cal +17.5 @ Southern Cal - The Sheriff is a homer and loves his Bears (see below). But he, actually, may be right n this one. Cal is playing just enough defense to cover this one I'll put a quatloo on it
UCLA +7.0 @ Stanford - After playing in Australia, @ USC and @ San Diego State, the Cardinal finally gets to play at home. They're going to play much better and shake off the stunning loss to SDSU. But Josh Rosen is the king of comebacks and will get a back door cover. With Mrs H watching next to me I don't dare put a quatloo on it.
Vanderbilt +18.5 vs Alabama - 1946. When Vandy beat Kansas State last week, it was the first time since 1946 that the Dores beat a ranked non conference opponent. The down side? Their now 3-0 and got Bama's attention.
And if you said that Bama had the higher rated defense in this contest you'd be wrong. Vandy is #1 in pass defense, #1 in scoring defense and #1 in total defense. Against some pretty quality offenses too in Middle Tenn State and Kansas State.
It won't hold against Jalen Hurts but it will be enough, in front of a fired up crowd, to get the cover.
UCLA +7.0 @ Stanford - After playing in Australia, @ USC and @ San Diego State, the Cardinal finally gets to play at home. They're going to play much better and shake off the stunning loss to SDSU. But Josh Rosen is the king of comebacks and will get a back door cover. With Mrs H watching next to me I don't dare put a quatloo on it.
Vanderbilt +18.5 vs Alabama - 1946. When Vandy beat Kansas State last week, it was the first time since 1946 that the Dores beat a ranked non conference opponent. The down side? Their now 3-0 and got Bama's attention.
And if you said that Bama had the higher rated defense in this contest you'd be wrong. Vandy is #1 in pass defense, #1 in scoring defense and #1 in total defense. Against some pretty quality offenses too in Middle Tenn State and Kansas State.
It won't hold against Jalen Hurts but it will be enough, in front of a fired up crowd, to get the cover.

Michigan State +4.0 vs Notre Dame - Of course the biggest game will be at 8:00pm when the Domers travel to East Lansing. No analysis necessary, I'm taking the Spartans. No quatloos though, I learned that lesson too many times.
NC State +13.0 @ Florida State – Just based on the trend alone I’ll drop a quatloo on the Pack. NC State has covered 13 of the last 16 against the Noles.
Not feeling it this week on the Mega Bets but I'll give these a try
Wake Forest -3.5 @ Appalachian State – When is Wake Forest going to get a little love? They are 3-0 with convincing wins over Boston College and Utah State. I know, not exactly the cream of college football but they did what good teams do, play mistake free offense, air tight defense and blow out the opposition. Check, check and check.
App State is a good Sun Belt team, one that you love betting on when you are getting 2 TDs against the big boys. But they are struggling a bit this year. A way too close win over Texas State is troubling. The Mountaineers might be getting too much love from Vegas. They are 3-12-1 ATS at home.
The Deacs will pound away for a convincing win
NC State +13.0 @ Florida State – Just based on the trend alone I’ll drop a quatloo on the Pack. NC State has covered 13 of the last 16 against the Noles.
Not feeling it this week on the Mega Bets but I'll give these a try
Wake Forest -3.5 @ Appalachian State – When is Wake Forest going to get a little love? They are 3-0 with convincing wins over Boston College and Utah State. I know, not exactly the cream of college football but they did what good teams do, play mistake free offense, air tight defense and blow out the opposition. Check, check and check.
App State is a good Sun Belt team, one that you love betting on when you are getting 2 TDs against the big boys. But they are struggling a bit this year. A way too close win over Texas State is troubling. The Mountaineers might be getting too much love from Vegas. They are 3-12-1 ATS at home.
The Deacs will pound away for a convincing win

San Diego State -3.0 @ Air Force – Time for the Aztecs to hold serve. They saw what South Florida did on Thursday to Temple. Now they need to answer against a solid fly boy team.
Air Force held their own on defense against Michigan and was able to move the ball as well. But SDSU has a better run game than the overrated Wolvies.
I’m all aboard the Rashaad Penny band wagon. SDSU gets a TD late to cover.
Kansas City -3.0 @ LA Chargers – Did you realize that Phil Rivers is 9-25 as a starter? Me either. The Chargers just find a way to lose.
Forget about any kind of home field advantage for the LAC. They didn’t in San Diego and they certainly don’t have it in LA
The team that destroyed New England behind Hunt and Hill in Foxboro will steamroll the losers from LA.
I'll go with some Mini Megas with:
West Virginia -21.5 @ Kansas – The Jayhawks are a big pile of fecal matter this year. They are just coming off back to back MAC losses by 18 and 12 points. Now a far better WVU comes to town.
WVU is 11th overall on offense and will tee off on a Kansas team that doesn’t get into the backfield. The Rock Shock have only two sacks in three games.
The ‘Neers should win easily if they stay focused. They have a bye next week and then face off against TCU.
Ohio +2.5 2 Eastern Michigan – the spread says these teams are about even. They are not. Ohio is better. I’ll take the points.
Utah -3.5 @ Arizona – Utah is not quite as good as prior years but Arizona still stinks. I’ll lay the short spread.
Air Force held their own on defense against Michigan and was able to move the ball as well. But SDSU has a better run game than the overrated Wolvies.
I’m all aboard the Rashaad Penny band wagon. SDSU gets a TD late to cover.
Kansas City -3.0 @ LA Chargers – Did you realize that Phil Rivers is 9-25 as a starter? Me either. The Chargers just find a way to lose.
Forget about any kind of home field advantage for the LAC. They didn’t in San Diego and they certainly don’t have it in LA
The team that destroyed New England behind Hunt and Hill in Foxboro will steamroll the losers from LA.
I'll go with some Mini Megas with:
West Virginia -21.5 @ Kansas – The Jayhawks are a big pile of fecal matter this year. They are just coming off back to back MAC losses by 18 and 12 points. Now a far better WVU comes to town.
WVU is 11th overall on offense and will tee off on a Kansas team that doesn’t get into the backfield. The Rock Shock have only two sacks in three games.
The ‘Neers should win easily if they stay focused. They have a bye next week and then face off against TCU.
Ohio +2.5 2 Eastern Michigan – the spread says these teams are about even. They are not. Ohio is better. I’ll take the points.
Utah -3.5 @ Arizona – Utah is not quite as good as prior years but Arizona still stinks. I’ll lay the short spread.

Oakland -3.0 @ Washington – The Raiders will exploit a banged up porous redskins OL forcing Kirk Cousins into mistakes. Meanwhile Derek Carr will torch a dicey Washington secondary.
I would be concerned if this were a 1:00 ET kickoff but it’s 4:00 so I’ll lay the points.
For the Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with
Boston College +34.5 @ Clemson
Cal +17.5 @ USC
Massachusetts +28.0 @ Tennessee
The Sax Man is weighing in again this week starting with a theory -
Figured I'd throw my hat into the ring again this week.
So I'm going to start my picks out with a theory... With all the Doofus's current free time (what free time? The Big Book of Guesses doesn’t write itself!) , I'd like him to check out how this would've worked last year.
My theory is that with the current disparity in NFL teams, If you took the top three favorites each week (teams favored by the most) and put them in a parlay, you'd end up with a decent payout by year's end.
Doofus: I checked using last year - it actually worked better than I thought. The parlay would have covered 5 weeks out of 17. Since the pay out is 6-1 You would have cleared a very tidy profit. In fact, if you just played the teams instead of a parlay you would have gone 31-20 overall. Maybe the Sax Man is on to something.
So I went back to 2015. The results were more in line with what I expected. The parlay would have only won 2 weeks – a loser. And just picking the games without a parlay would have also lost going 22-29.
So far this year both parlays would have lost and the individual teams have gone 3-3.
With that being said, it's a bit more fun to pick my own teams than to just blindly follow the spreads so I will enter my 3 team parlay each week and see how I do...
The Sax Man's inaugural Parlay of the Week for NFL Week 3 is
New England -13.5 over Houston
Green Bay -9.0 over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh -7.5 over Chicago
I also like a couple spreads:
Miami -13.5 over Toledo: My most hated team in CFB (yes even more than the teams in Athens and Ann Arbor) has had 3 weeks to rest up and prepare for the high powered Toledo offense. I think they probably start out a little rusty and then blow it open after halftime.
Cowboys -3.0 over Cardinals: This line is an overreaction to the Cowboys having an off week against a good Denver Defense. Arizona doesn't have much of a home field advantage (3-5 ATS at home last year) and it will feel like a home game for a team that is looking to bounce back.
I would be concerned if this were a 1:00 ET kickoff but it’s 4:00 so I’ll lay the points.
For the Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with
Boston College +34.5 @ Clemson
Cal +17.5 @ USC
Massachusetts +28.0 @ Tennessee
The Sax Man is weighing in again this week starting with a theory -
Figured I'd throw my hat into the ring again this week.
So I'm going to start my picks out with a theory... With all the Doofus's current free time (what free time? The Big Book of Guesses doesn’t write itself!) , I'd like him to check out how this would've worked last year.
My theory is that with the current disparity in NFL teams, If you took the top three favorites each week (teams favored by the most) and put them in a parlay, you'd end up with a decent payout by year's end.
Doofus: I checked using last year - it actually worked better than I thought. The parlay would have covered 5 weeks out of 17. Since the pay out is 6-1 You would have cleared a very tidy profit. In fact, if you just played the teams instead of a parlay you would have gone 31-20 overall. Maybe the Sax Man is on to something.
So I went back to 2015. The results were more in line with what I expected. The parlay would have only won 2 weeks – a loser. And just picking the games without a parlay would have also lost going 22-29.
So far this year both parlays would have lost and the individual teams have gone 3-3.
With that being said, it's a bit more fun to pick my own teams than to just blindly follow the spreads so I will enter my 3 team parlay each week and see how I do...
The Sax Man's inaugural Parlay of the Week for NFL Week 3 is
New England -13.5 over Houston
Green Bay -9.0 over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh -7.5 over Chicago
I also like a couple spreads:
Miami -13.5 over Toledo: My most hated team in CFB (yes even more than the teams in Athens and Ann Arbor) has had 3 weeks to rest up and prepare for the high powered Toledo offense. I think they probably start out a little rusty and then blow it open after halftime.
Cowboys -3.0 over Cardinals: This line is an overreaction to the Cowboys having an off week against a good Denver Defense. Arizona doesn't have much of a home field advantage (3-5 ATS at home last year) and it will feel like a home game for a team that is looking to bounce back.
Before making this week’s picks, the Sheriff would like to pay tribute to the late great Harry Dean Stanton with a scene from Repo Man (“I will not cause harm to any car, or the personal contents therof … not many people have a code to live by anymore, kid”).
Cal (+17.5) vs USC. The Sheriff recently took his 13-year old daughter to see Hamilton, one of whose many great songs was a number called “I’m not throwing away MY SHOT!” The Golden Bears are playing defense for the first time in over a decade, something their current team could only read about in history books, or look at in grainy, black-and-white photos.
Cal lost its starting tailback Tre Watson in week 2, but a freshman walk-on named Patrick Laird who runs like a maniac (7.5 yards per carry) has brought a source of inspiration to a team that is starting to believe in itself. Cal has not beaten the Condoms since a September day in Berkeley in 2003, when a highly ranked USC team rolled into Memorial Stadium thinking there was no way they could lose. Cal is not throwing away its SHOT! Bears win and shock the world. (or at least cover).
Purdue (+10) vs Michigan. Purdue is another team with a first-year HC who is turning around a moribund program and giving his players a reason to believe. The Sheriff jumped on the Boilermaker train last week as they pounded Missouri 35-3, and he plans to ride it all the way to bowl eligibility. Purdue hasn’t shown this much promise since the Fabulous Drew Brees took them to the Rose Bowl in 2001. Could we be looking at a Cal/Purdue Sun Bowl in El Paso this year ??
Iowa (+12) vs Penn State. Penn State has looked very impressive in its first 3 wins, but it hasn’t played anybody so we don’t really know who they are yet. Iowa will be playing at home and waving to the kids in the upper floors of the Children’s hospital next to Kinnick stadium. The Sheriff can’t bet against a number this large so he will take Iowa and the points at home.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2017 Week 4 Bettors Guide

2017 Week 4 Bettors Guide.xlsx |