Ohio State USC - Classic football!! It’s that time of year again! And I’m not talking about Rudolph, Santa, Frosty, and Linus. The annual getting the kids together and watching the classics is now done. No, I’m talking about the next best thing about the holidays. Bowl Season!
If the last few weeks were a Thanksgiving feast of rivalry games and championship matchups, then the next few weeks is the Advent calendar, open a door and get a treat until the ultimate prize – the playoffs.
There are plenty of sweet treats for college football fans when powerhouse programs that would never schedule each other during the regular season are forced to square off. How about LSU vs Notre Dame or Washington vs Penn State.
You can go 70’s retro Rose Bowl when USC faces Ohio State. Get ready for a lot of references to John McKay and Woody.
And get ready for a ton a replays of Jadeveon Clowney when South Carolina plays Michigan in the Outback Bowl
In fact let me be the first
If the last few weeks were a Thanksgiving feast of rivalry games and championship matchups, then the next few weeks is the Advent calendar, open a door and get a treat until the ultimate prize – the playoffs.
There are plenty of sweet treats for college football fans when powerhouse programs that would never schedule each other during the regular season are forced to square off. How about LSU vs Notre Dame or Washington vs Penn State.
You can go 70’s retro Rose Bowl when USC faces Ohio State. Get ready for a lot of references to John McKay and Woody.
And get ready for a ton a replays of Jadeveon Clowney when South Carolina plays Michigan in the Outback Bowl
In fact let me be the first
Keep in mind it was in retaliation for one of the worst first down measurements of all time.
Hope they play this clip too
And, of course, there are a ton of interesting fun prizes too like the undefeated Black Knights of UCF playing SEC runner up Auburn. Or Virginia Tech playing Oklahoma State, Stanford taking on TCU and Wisconsin vs Miami (FL).
How about Northwestern squaring off against Kentucky? One thing is for sure the Wildcats will win. Get used to that lame joke.
I’m a fanatic so most of you may not care but I’m looking forward to seeing Boise State playing Oregon
I doubt you will see this replayed
How about Northwestern squaring off against Kentucky? One thing is for sure the Wildcats will win. Get used to that lame joke.
I’m a fanatic so most of you may not care but I’m looking forward to seeing Boise State playing Oregon
I doubt you will see this replayed
Wow, since that time LaGarrette Blount has bounced around the NFL while winning 2 Super Bowl rings.
But I had forgotten about Scott Frost holding him back. Frost just took UCF to an unbeaten season, became the hottest name in the coaching Carousel this year before landing at the HC gig Nebraska.
Always a lot of interesting story lines during the Bowl Season.
But I had forgotten about Scott Frost holding him back. Frost just took UCF to an unbeaten season, became the hottest name in the coaching Carousel this year before landing at the HC gig Nebraska.
Always a lot of interesting story lines during the Bowl Season.
Now, nothing gets you interest going in the Bowl Season like entering a Confidence Pool. Pick all 40 games with putting the most points on your slam dunk, the sun would have to come up in the west for them to lose, favorite team. All the way down to 1 point on your upset special but you really doubt it. Now all of a sudden you’re watching Ohio vs UAB because you have 34 points on the Bobcats. Love it
First a couple of rules.
Rule 1 - Always pick Michigan State though I never put a lot of points on them. I get too excited about the game to add the stress of putting a lot of points on them too
Rule 2- Always pick against Michigan. Feel free to put as many points on their foes as you like.
Now following those rules but before you jump right in and start spewing points all over the place - here are some things to consider:
First a couple of rules.
Rule 1 - Always pick Michigan State though I never put a lot of points on them. I get too excited about the game to add the stress of putting a lot of points on them too
Rule 2- Always pick against Michigan. Feel free to put as many points on their foes as you like.
Now following those rules but before you jump right in and start spewing points all over the place - here are some things to consider:
Really ASU? Herm Edwards?? Change in Coaches
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches any ways. Here’s the list so far
Central Florida – As mentioned Scott Frost is going back to his Alma mater Nebraska. Will the team felt let down?
Texas A&M – Kevin Sumlin didn’t get it done so they drop a ton of coin on...
Florida State – Jimbo went for Jumbo sized money at Texas A&M
Oregon – Willie Taggart left to replace Jimbo at FSU. I like Mario Cristobel as the new HC
UCLA – a disappointing season for the Bruins got Jim Mora canned. Will the team be as excited as fans with the hiring of Chip Kelly?
Mississippi State – Dan Mullen left to go to the easier side of the SEC. Florida in the East
Arizona State – 7-5 wasn’t good enough to keep Todd Graham but Herm Edwards? Yikes
SMU - Chad Morris is off to Arkansas. Sonny Dykes returns to the CUSA
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches any ways. Here’s the list so far
Central Florida – As mentioned Scott Frost is going back to his Alma mater Nebraska. Will the team felt let down?
Texas A&M – Kevin Sumlin didn’t get it done so they drop a ton of coin on...
Florida State – Jimbo went for Jumbo sized money at Texas A&M
Oregon – Willie Taggart left to replace Jimbo at FSU. I like Mario Cristobel as the new HC
UCLA – a disappointing season for the Bruins got Jim Mora canned. Will the team be as excited as fans with the hiring of Chip Kelly?
Mississippi State – Dan Mullen left to go to the easier side of the SEC. Florida in the East
Arizona State – 7-5 wasn’t good enough to keep Todd Graham but Herm Edwards? Yikes
SMU - Chad Morris is off to Arkansas. Sonny Dykes returns to the CUSA
Memphis will be playing a true home game Location
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? Five teams will soon find out
Texas - will play in the Texas Bowl ‘natch
TCU - plays in good ol San Antone in the Alamo Bowl
Wake Forest – plays in the Belk over in Charlotte
Memphis – plays in its home stadium in the Liberty Bowl
Miami (FL) – And the canes play in their backyard in the Orange Bowl
Last year, teams playing in their home state went 9-4. But they went 5-8 the year before. Better think twice about taking the “home” teams
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? Five teams will soon find out
Texas - will play in the Texas Bowl ‘natch
TCU - plays in good ol San Antone in the Alamo Bowl
Wake Forest – plays in the Belk over in Charlotte
Memphis – plays in its home stadium in the Liberty Bowl
Miami (FL) – And the canes play in their backyard in the Orange Bowl
Last year, teams playing in their home state went 9-4. But they went 5-8 the year before. Better think twice about taking the “home” teams
Will Josh Rosen play in the Cactus Bowl This year I'm going to add another variable - Players skipping bowl games to avoid the risk of injuring themselves prior to the NFL draft.
Here are some key players that have announced that they will leave their teams high and dry
Texas - DeShon Elliott - DB
Texas - Holton Hill - DB
Texas - Connor Williams - OL
Florida State - Derwi James - DB
Others rumored to leave
NC State - Bradley Chubb - DE
Oregon - Royce Freeman RB
Michigan - Maurice Hurst - DT
Iowa - Joshua Jackson - DB
LSU - Arden Key - DE
UCLA - Josh Rosen - QB
Rosen is the most concerning. UCLA is already an underdog against Kansas State. WIthout him, not sure UCLA has much of a chance.
Here are some key players that have announced that they will leave their teams high and dry
Texas - DeShon Elliott - DB
Texas - Holton Hill - DB
Texas - Connor Williams - OL
Florida State - Derwi James - DB
Others rumored to leave
NC State - Bradley Chubb - DE
Oregon - Royce Freeman RB
Michigan - Maurice Hurst - DT
Iowa - Joshua Jackson - DB
LSU - Arden Key - DE
UCLA - Josh Rosen - QB
Rosen is the most concerning. UCLA is already an underdog against Kansas State. WIthout him, not sure UCLA has much of a chance.
So how to pick all 40 games and allocate 820 points?
You can use the point spreads. If you allocated the most points based on the largest point spread it would look like this
You can use the point spreads. If you allocated the most points based on the largest point spread it would look like this
But going full chalk with your picks comes with some risk. Highly favored teams get beat every year. In fact here is the record of favored teams :
As expected, the FG or less spreads were pretty much a coin flip. It got better from a FG to a TD.
Looks like the heavy favorites do pretty well, but it’s not always a slam dunk. Over the last six years teams favored by more than a TD lost 15 games. Pretty sure those teams took me down faster than a gas station tuna sandwich.
I like most of the heavy favorites but I'm going to be cautious in allocating them points.
There is also some analytical projections. The Sagarin Rating a statistical rating for every team and the FPI which ran 10,000 simulations of every game and gave a probability of winning by team
Ranking the teams by the Sagarin ranking and the FPI probability of winning gives these point allocations
Looks like the heavy favorites do pretty well, but it’s not always a slam dunk. Over the last six years teams favored by more than a TD lost 15 games. Pretty sure those teams took me down faster than a gas station tuna sandwich.
I like most of the heavy favorites but I'm going to be cautious in allocating them points.
There is also some analytical projections. The Sagarin Rating a statistical rating for every team and the FPI which ran 10,000 simulations of every game and gave a probability of winning by team
Ranking the teams by the Sagarin ranking and the FPI probability of winning gives these point allocations
I've found the Sagarin rating, since it is backwards looking, to not be as good as the spread. But can help in games where you are undecided.
I haven't tried the FPI rating. I'll check it out going forward.
I haven't tried the FPI rating. I'll check it out going forward.
Given all that - what's the best way to pick. Well, I usually put in multiple entries. One is just to go purely with the spread, Sagarin ratings and the FPI. By equally blending these factors here is what you get:
I know, I know far too many points on scUM. It's purely a mathematical exercise but it violates Rules 1 and 2. I'll make the needed adjustments in the official entry
Another factor I like to consider is keeping my powder dry. By that I mean putting more points on teams playing later.
Typically pools keep track of potential points i.e. if you won the rest of the games how would you place. I like to have potential points.
And I like to have an entry so I can root for my favorite teams.
So after watching way too much football and taking everything into consideration - here is my Heart Pick. I'll take my teams in upsets, allocate points to the back and mix it up a little with some of the coin flip games.
Another factor I like to consider is keeping my powder dry. By that I mean putting more points on teams playing later.
Typically pools keep track of potential points i.e. if you won the rest of the games how would you place. I like to have potential points.
And I like to have an entry so I can root for my favorite teams.
So after watching way too much football and taking everything into consideration - here is my Heart Pick. I'll take my teams in upsets, allocate points to the back and mix it up a little with some of the coin flip games.
And for all the games, times, networks, spreads and much much more here is the 2017 Bowl Season Bettors Guide
Good Luck
Good Luck
| 2017 Bowl Season Bettors Guide.xlsx |
