
It’s that time of year again! And I’m not talking about Rudolph, Santa, Frosty, and Linus. The annual getting the kids together and watching the classics has another year added to the tradition. No, I’m talking about the next best thing about the holidays.
Bowl Season!
I know, MSU is not in it this year. That's tough to digest. This year won't have the near the excitement of the last few. But there is still lots of excitement to be had.
If the last few weeks were a thanksgiving feast of rivalry games and championship matchups, then the next month is one big long dessert cart filled with lots of little sweets ending with a triple chocolate, fudge and caramel volcano cake – the playoffs.
The bowl season is chalk full of indulgences for college football fans when powerhouse programs that would never schedule each other during the regular season are forced to square off. How about Michigan vs Florida State. I’m not usually a Nole fan but this year I’ll be screaming for the Scarlet and Gold from the moment Chief Osceola rides Renegade into the stadium and jams that fiery spear into midfield.
Or how about legendary programs like USC playing Penn State. Trojans versus the shower monkeys - a comedic goldmine. And a good matchup too. Auburn is back this year and gets to play and old BCS favorite Oklahoma. War Eagle! And I’m really looking forward to see how Louisville and Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson do against LSU’s defense and the running game led by Leonard Fournette.
Bowl Season!
I know, MSU is not in it this year. That's tough to digest. This year won't have the near the excitement of the last few. But there is still lots of excitement to be had.
If the last few weeks were a thanksgiving feast of rivalry games and championship matchups, then the next month is one big long dessert cart filled with lots of little sweets ending with a triple chocolate, fudge and caramel volcano cake – the playoffs.
The bowl season is chalk full of indulgences for college football fans when powerhouse programs that would never schedule each other during the regular season are forced to square off. How about Michigan vs Florida State. I’m not usually a Nole fan but this year I’ll be screaming for the Scarlet and Gold from the moment Chief Osceola rides Renegade into the stadium and jams that fiery spear into midfield.
Or how about legendary programs like USC playing Penn State. Trojans versus the shower monkeys - a comedic goldmine. And a good matchup too. Auburn is back this year and gets to play and old BCS favorite Oklahoma. War Eagle! And I’m really looking forward to see how Louisville and Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson do against LSU’s defense and the running game led by Leonard Fournette.

And, of course, there are a ton of interesting sweet little treats too like Wisconsin versus the upstart Western Michigan Broncos. Or two teams with faded glory trying to come back like Tennessee versus Nebraska. Colorado came out of nowhere this year and hopes to end on a high note against the overlooked Okie State Cowboys.
I’m a fanatic, and most may not care, but I’m looking forward to seeing App State play Toledo in what should be a high scoring affair. And I’m curious to see if Houston, a team when it’s on can play with anyone but had a few gaffes this year too, will do against San Diego State and the running game of Donnel Pumphrey.
Now, nothing gets you interest going in the Bowl Season like entering a Confidence Pool. Pick all 40 games with putting the most points on your slam dunk, the sun would have to come up in the west for them to lose, favorite team. All the way down to 1 point on your upset special but you really doubt it. Now all of a sudden you’re watching Old Dominion vs Eastern Michigan because you have 15 points on the Hurons. Love it
But before you jump right in and start spewing points all over the place - here are some things to consider:
I’m a fanatic, and most may not care, but I’m looking forward to seeing App State play Toledo in what should be a high scoring affair. And I’m curious to see if Houston, a team when it’s on can play with anyone but had a few gaffes this year too, will do against San Diego State and the running game of Donnel Pumphrey.
Now, nothing gets you interest going in the Bowl Season like entering a Confidence Pool. Pick all 40 games with putting the most points on your slam dunk, the sun would have to come up in the west for them to lose, favorite team. All the way down to 1 point on your upset special but you really doubt it. Now all of a sudden you’re watching Old Dominion vs Eastern Michigan because you have 15 points on the Hurons. Love it
But before you jump right in and start spewing points all over the place - here are some things to consider:

Change in Coaches
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights fired their coaches for "not holding up to the standards around here" while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches in attempts to relive the past.
Here are the bowl teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Houston – Texas got there man at last by snatching Tom Herman from the Cougars
South Florida – The ex-Texas coach then took his talents down to Tampa to lead South Florida. The position was open when Willie Taggert got promoted to Oregon
Indiana – Kevin Wilson was making some great progress with the Hoosiers but left under a cloud - a cloud of suspicion regarding treatment of players.
Baylor – Jim Grobe was given a one year try out. Results were not up to snuff
Temple – Mark Rhule did a great job so he got the Baylor job
Western Kentucky – Jeff Brohm kept things humming at WKU and earned the nod at Purdue.
Last year, teams replacing their HC went 2-3 in bowls.
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights fired their coaches for "not holding up to the standards around here" while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches in attempts to relive the past.
Here are the bowl teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Houston – Texas got there man at last by snatching Tom Herman from the Cougars
South Florida – The ex-Texas coach then took his talents down to Tampa to lead South Florida. The position was open when Willie Taggert got promoted to Oregon
Indiana – Kevin Wilson was making some great progress with the Hoosiers but left under a cloud - a cloud of suspicion regarding treatment of players.
Baylor – Jim Grobe was given a one year try out. Results were not up to snuff
Temple – Mark Rhule did a great job so he got the Baylor job
Western Kentucky – Jeff Brohm kept things humming at WKU and earned the nod at Purdue.
Last year, teams replacing their HC went 2-3 in bowls.

Location
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? A full 13 teams will soon find out
New Mexico - will play in the New Mexico Bowl ‘natch
Central Florida - plays in its home city of Orlando
UL Lafayette – plays in the New Orleans Bowl for the fifth time in six years. They are 4-0 in this game
Idaho – in their penultimate season in Div 1A the Vandals get to play in the Idaho Potato Bowl. Who better to sponsor spuds at your local grocer.
Troy – And, what better place to play the Dollar General Bowl than in Mobile AL. Troy makes the short trip down to the Gulf
Hawaii – Spartan fans still have nightmares about playing Hawaii in Hawaii
North Texas – The Heart of Dallas Bowl came calling for the Mean Green
Miami (FL) – As soon as UCF gets done playing in the Camping World stadium. The Canes travel up to Orlando
Texas A&M – plays in Houston, Texas in the Texas Bowl. Lots of Lone Starring there.
Tennessee – plays in its rival’s home city of Nashville in the Music City Bowl
Florida State – has played some great games in Miami in the Orange Bowl
Florida – makes a short trip down to Tampa in the Outback Bowl
Southern Cal – USC in the Rose Bowl – lots of great memories of them taking down Bo
Last year, teams playing in their home state went 5-8. They went 3-7 the year before. Better think twice about taking the “home” teams
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? A full 13 teams will soon find out
New Mexico - will play in the New Mexico Bowl ‘natch
Central Florida - plays in its home city of Orlando
UL Lafayette – plays in the New Orleans Bowl for the fifth time in six years. They are 4-0 in this game
Idaho – in their penultimate season in Div 1A the Vandals get to play in the Idaho Potato Bowl. Who better to sponsor spuds at your local grocer.
Troy – And, what better place to play the Dollar General Bowl than in Mobile AL. Troy makes the short trip down to the Gulf
Hawaii – Spartan fans still have nightmares about playing Hawaii in Hawaii
North Texas – The Heart of Dallas Bowl came calling for the Mean Green
Miami (FL) – As soon as UCF gets done playing in the Camping World stadium. The Canes travel up to Orlando
Texas A&M – plays in Houston, Texas in the Texas Bowl. Lots of Lone Starring there.
Tennessee – plays in its rival’s home city of Nashville in the Music City Bowl
Florida State – has played some great games in Miami in the Orange Bowl
Florida – makes a short trip down to Tampa in the Outback Bowl
Southern Cal – USC in the Rose Bowl – lots of great memories of them taking down Bo
Last year, teams playing in their home state went 5-8. They went 3-7 the year before. Better think twice about taking the “home” teams
So – how do you pick those 40 games and allocate 820 points?
Let's start with the spreads. If you were to go with all favorites and allocate the points strictly on the spread (bigger spread = more points) you would end up with the following:
Let's start with the spreads. If you were to go with all favorites and allocate the points strictly on the spread (bigger spread = more points) you would end up with the following:
There’s also the Sagarin Rating – a statistical value of teams given the results of their games played this year. The higher the score the better the team. Based on that ranking the allocation would be as follows:
But, before I went whole Razorback and just rely on the ratings, I took a look back years to see how teams did based on the spread. I've been bitten more than a few times by putting a ton of points on heavily favored teams. Was I just remembering a few bad examples?
Here's the results of taking teams based purely on the spread:
Here's the results of taking teams based purely on the spread:
As expected, the FG or less spreads were pretty much a coin flip. It got better from a FG to a TD.
Looks like the heavy favorites do pretty well, but it’s not always a slam dunk. Over the last five years teams favored by more than a TD lost 11 games. Nine of those losses were in 2012-2013. Pretty sure those teams took me down faster than a gas station tuna sandwich.
But none of those losses were in 2015. Last year they went 8-0. I'll risk it. I’ll still go with putting plenty of points on the big chalks.
Was it better to go with the Sagarin Rating? The better ranked teams went as follows.
Looks like the heavy favorites do pretty well, but it’s not always a slam dunk. Over the last five years teams favored by more than a TD lost 11 games. Nine of those losses were in 2012-2013. Pretty sure those teams took me down faster than a gas station tuna sandwich.
But none of those losses were in 2015. Last year they went 8-0. I'll risk it. I’ll still go with putting plenty of points on the big chalks.
Was it better to go with the Sagarin Rating? The better ranked teams went as follows.
About the same if not a little worse actually. That's not surprising. I've found that the spread and the Sagarin rating have tracked pretty closely over the years. They diverge when something big happens like injuries to key players. Or players refusing to practice. The Sagarin rating only looks backwards and doesn't factor in current news.
Given all that - what's the best way to pick. Well, I usually put in multiple entries. One is just to go purely with the spread and ratings. By equally blending in the Spread, Sagarin and a third ranking system called the S+P (it rates teams based on play by play and drive by drive resutls) here is what you get:
Given all that - what's the best way to pick. Well, I usually put in multiple entries. One is just to go purely with the spread and ratings. By equally blending in the Spread, Sagarin and a third ranking system called the S+P (it rates teams based on play by play and drive by drive resutls) here is what you get:
I know, I know far too many points on scUM. It's not the entry I'll be rooting on. It's purely a mathematical exercise. And as the guy in the lightbulb commercials used to say. If you argue with math you will lose.
Another factor I like to consider is keeping my powder dry. By that I mean putting more points on teams playing later. Typically pools keep track of potential points i.e. if you won the rest of the games how would you place. I like to have potential points.
And I like to have an entry so I can root for my favorite teams.
So here is my Heart Pick. I'll take my teams in upsets, allocate points to the back and mix it up a little with some of the coin flip games.
And I like to have an entry so I can root for my favorite teams.
So here is my Heart Pick. I'll take my teams in upsets, allocate points to the back and mix it up a little with some of the coin flip games.
Looks like I'll be taking some big upsets. Why not? That's what makes college football so great.
And for all the games, times, spreads, sagarin ratings, records against the spread and much much more here is the 2016 College Football Bowl Season Bettors Guide
And for all the games, times, spreads, sagarin ratings, records against the spread and much much more here is the 2016 College Football Bowl Season Bettors Guide

2016 Bowl Bettors Guide.xlsx |
I'll be making picks against the spread throughout the season
Good Luck!