
Bruce, Chris, Mr H and their lovely brides came down for the first true Doofus Deck 2.0 Football Extravaganza. The flags were up, the spreads were posted, TVs stacked. Everything was primed and ready to go.
Mrs. Doofus served up several great meals. Beverages flowed throughout the day and late into the night. We even had a sunrise cruise on the DPB (Doofus Pontoon Boat) the next day. Just a grand 'ol time.
Chris made a minor faux pas when he dropped a brand new, unopened bottle of Tullamore Dew on the tile floor. Glass went everywhere. I'm still finding bits and pieces. We had a moment of silence for the beverage that made the ultimate sacrifice.
The football watching opened with the MSU Michigan game. Nick texted just before kickoff wondering why I had not made a prediction on the score. He was going with 50-6.
State started out with perhaps their most impressive drive of the season, shredding the supposed impregnable Wolverine run defense for 75 yards and a quick 7-0 lead.
43 points to go I texted back.
But, for the rest of the first half Michigan dominated. They had five drives and scored all five times. Our defense was ugly.
Nick was doing a countdown. 33 points to go....26 points to go....
Yet, Michigan didn't put the game away. They led 27-10 after 2
Mrs. Doofus served up several great meals. Beverages flowed throughout the day and late into the night. We even had a sunrise cruise on the DPB (Doofus Pontoon Boat) the next day. Just a grand 'ol time.
Chris made a minor faux pas when he dropped a brand new, unopened bottle of Tullamore Dew on the tile floor. Glass went everywhere. I'm still finding bits and pieces. We had a moment of silence for the beverage that made the ultimate sacrifice.
The football watching opened with the MSU Michigan game. Nick texted just before kickoff wondering why I had not made a prediction on the score. He was going with 50-6.
State started out with perhaps their most impressive drive of the season, shredding the supposed impregnable Wolverine run defense for 75 yards and a quick 7-0 lead.
43 points to go I texted back.
But, for the rest of the first half Michigan dominated. They had five drives and scored all five times. Our defense was ugly.
Nick was doing a countdown. 33 points to go....26 points to go....
Yet, Michigan didn't put the game away. They led 27-10 after 2

During halftime, as I poured myself something other than a Tullamore Dew, I worried that this is when State collapses. They can hang for a while but the lack of depth leads to numerous errors and enemy points. If scUM scores every time they touch the ball I'm gonna wish the score was 50-6.
But you never know what is going to happen in a rivalry game. State's defense, the one that couldn't get off the field in the first half, allowed only 3 points in the second.
After a scoreless 3rd quarter, we made a game of it in the fourth.
Actually, we tried to make a game of it in the third. On our first drive, we once again marched through the Wolvie defense only to get it to first and goal at the 2. Four straight times we tried to punch it in. Four straight times we were stopped.
Everyone was screaming at the TV. Try something different. fake the run.. pass for crying out loud!
But I get it. Dantonio was trying to set a tone. Punch it in even when they know you are going there and scUM loses confidence. Momentum would surge to the good guys. It would be the crack that opens the dam.
We may have been stopped but we were gaining confidence. On the next drive we drove to the 20 only to miss a FG. Damn, so close. Two drives into the red zone and no points
But you never know what is going to happen in a rivalry game. State's defense, the one that couldn't get off the field in the first half, allowed only 3 points in the second.
After a scoreless 3rd quarter, we made a game of it in the fourth.
Actually, we tried to make a game of it in the third. On our first drive, we once again marched through the Wolvie defense only to get it to first and goal at the 2. Four straight times we tried to punch it in. Four straight times we were stopped.
Everyone was screaming at the TV. Try something different. fake the run.. pass for crying out loud!
But I get it. Dantonio was trying to set a tone. Punch it in even when they know you are going there and scUM loses confidence. Momentum would surge to the good guys. It would be the crack that opens the dam.
We may have been stopped but we were gaining confidence. On the next drive we drove to the 20 only to miss a FG. Damn, so close. Two drives into the red zone and no points

On our next drive we finally get a score. Lewerke hits Madaras from 20 yards out to cut the lead to 30-17. Still 7 1/2 minutes to go. We have a chance!
On the next drive we get it to the scUM 18, first and 10. This time we try passing it. 3 straight incompletions and a sack and it's Wolvie ball. A score there and all the pressure would have been on Michigan.
Even then we still wouldn't give up. We got the ball one last time with 27 seconds left at our own 25. We worked the clock and got a TD with 1 second left. Never say die!
Sure could have used that drive against Indiana or Maryland. But we did get it against the former number 1 rated defense. Nice.
Now we need that Spartan team to show up from here on out.
Afterwards, the game that had a weird feel to it. I mean, it was a loss and that sucks. And it was a loss to Michigan which really sucks. Yet it was so close. Nowhere near 50-6.
As someone posted - "Let me see if I got this straight. Michigan comes in with their best team in decades, we come in with our worst team under Dantonio and it came down to the wire?" That made me feel a bit better.
On the next drive we get it to the scUM 18, first and 10. This time we try passing it. 3 straight incompletions and a sack and it's Wolvie ball. A score there and all the pressure would have been on Michigan.
Even then we still wouldn't give up. We got the ball one last time with 27 seconds left at our own 25. We worked the clock and got a TD with 1 second left. Never say die!
Sure could have used that drive against Indiana or Maryland. But we did get it against the former number 1 rated defense. Nice.
Now we need that Spartan team to show up from here on out.
Afterwards, the game that had a weird feel to it. I mean, it was a loss and that sucks. And it was a loss to Michigan which really sucks. Yet it was so close. Nowhere near 50-6.
As someone posted - "Let me see if I got this straight. Michigan comes in with their best team in decades, we come in with our worst team under Dantonio and it came down to the wire?" That made me feel a bit better.

I spent the rest of the day and night watching tons of football (and a little World Series too. Chris was trying to get us to sing Cleveland's "Indian Fever - catch it" song. It didn't catch on mercifully)
While watching I was keeping an eye on how the BBofG advanced betting metrics was doing. Not too bad actually. Here is what the statistical analysis said to bet and the results:
1. Take the favorite if the spread is from 0 to 3.0. Especially if the visitor is the favorite
Tulane -3.0 vs SMU – Final SMU 35 Tulane 31 - Loss
Miami (FL) -2.0 @ Notre Dame - Notre Dame 30 Miami (FL) 27 - Loss
Hawaii -3.0 vs New Mexico – New Mexico 28 Hawaii 21 - Loss
UNLV -2.5 @ San Jose State - San Jose State 30 UNLV 24 – Loss
0-4 last week. That obviously didn’t work. I won’t be using this strategy on Saturday.
While watching I was keeping an eye on how the BBofG advanced betting metrics was doing. Not too bad actually. Here is what the statistical analysis said to bet and the results:
1. Take the favorite if the spread is from 0 to 3.0. Especially if the visitor is the favorite
Tulane -3.0 vs SMU – Final SMU 35 Tulane 31 - Loss
Miami (FL) -2.0 @ Notre Dame - Notre Dame 30 Miami (FL) 27 - Loss
Hawaii -3.0 vs New Mexico – New Mexico 28 Hawaii 21 - Loss
UNLV -2.5 @ San Jose State - San Jose State 30 UNLV 24 – Loss
0-4 last week. That obviously didn’t work. I won’t be using this strategy on Saturday.

2. On spreads from 3.5 to 6.5 take the favorite if it’s the visitor otherwise pass
Va Tech -3.5 @ Pitt – Va Tech 39 Pitt 36 – Loss (by the hook)
Appalachian State -5.0 @ Georgia Southern – App State 34 Ga Southern 10 - Win
San Diego State -5.5 @ Utah State – SDSU 40 Utah State 13 - Win
Clemson -4.0 @ Florida State – Clemson 37 FSU 34 - Loss
Baylor -3.5 @ Texas – Texas 35 Baylor 34 - Loss
Kansas State -6.5 @ Iowa State – Kansas State 31 Iowa State 26 - Loss
West Virginia -3.5 @ Oklahoma State – Ok State 37 WVU 20 - Loss
Old Dominion -4.5 @ UTEP – Old Dominion 31 UTEP 21 - Win
Stanford -5.5 @ Arizona – Stanford 34 Arizona 10 - Win
Auburn -4.5 @ Ole Miss - Auburn 40 Ole Miss 29 - Win
Break even 5-5. Of course, I mega betted two of the losses. FML.
But in looking at the results, it appears there is a break point at 4.0. Teams giving 4.0 or less went 0-4 and those at 4.5 and above went 5-1.
So I went back to see if this was true going back to the beginning of the year. It was!
Visiting favorites at 3.5 to 4.0 went 6-6. If the spread was 4.5 to 6.5 they went 13-6 (not including the 5-1 in week 9).
Definitely going to use the modified version of this strategy this week.
3. From 7.0 to 9.5 take the underdog if it’s the visitor otherwise pass
Connecticut +7.0 @ East Carolina – East Carolina 41 UConn 3 – Loss (but no betting on UConn)
Central Florida +9.5 @ Houston – Houston 31 UCF 24 - Win
Nebraska +9.0 @ Wisconsin – Wisconsin 23 Nebraska 17 - Win
Texas Tech +9.5 @ TCU – Texas Tech 27 TCU 24 - Win
Miami (OH) +7.5 @ Eastern Michigan – Miami (OH) 28 Eastern Mich 15 - Win
Arizona State +8.0 @ Oregon – Oregon 54 ASU 35 - Loss
Georgia +8.5 @ Florida – Florida 24 UGA 10 – Loss
4-3 including a UConn bet. 4-2 if you followed the Big Al Rule. So this strategy is holding
4. On spreads from 10.0 to 13.5 take the favorite if it’s home otherwise pass
There were no situations like this in week 9.
Va Tech -3.5 @ Pitt – Va Tech 39 Pitt 36 – Loss (by the hook)
Appalachian State -5.0 @ Georgia Southern – App State 34 Ga Southern 10 - Win
San Diego State -5.5 @ Utah State – SDSU 40 Utah State 13 - Win
Clemson -4.0 @ Florida State – Clemson 37 FSU 34 - Loss
Baylor -3.5 @ Texas – Texas 35 Baylor 34 - Loss
Kansas State -6.5 @ Iowa State – Kansas State 31 Iowa State 26 - Loss
West Virginia -3.5 @ Oklahoma State – Ok State 37 WVU 20 - Loss
Old Dominion -4.5 @ UTEP – Old Dominion 31 UTEP 21 - Win
Stanford -5.5 @ Arizona – Stanford 34 Arizona 10 - Win
Auburn -4.5 @ Ole Miss - Auburn 40 Ole Miss 29 - Win
Break even 5-5. Of course, I mega betted two of the losses. FML.
But in looking at the results, it appears there is a break point at 4.0. Teams giving 4.0 or less went 0-4 and those at 4.5 and above went 5-1.
So I went back to see if this was true going back to the beginning of the year. It was!
Visiting favorites at 3.5 to 4.0 went 6-6. If the spread was 4.5 to 6.5 they went 13-6 (not including the 5-1 in week 9).
Definitely going to use the modified version of this strategy this week.
3. From 7.0 to 9.5 take the underdog if it’s the visitor otherwise pass
Connecticut +7.0 @ East Carolina – East Carolina 41 UConn 3 – Loss (but no betting on UConn)
Central Florida +9.5 @ Houston – Houston 31 UCF 24 - Win
Nebraska +9.0 @ Wisconsin – Wisconsin 23 Nebraska 17 - Win
Texas Tech +9.5 @ TCU – Texas Tech 27 TCU 24 - Win
Miami (OH) +7.5 @ Eastern Michigan – Miami (OH) 28 Eastern Mich 15 - Win
Arizona State +8.0 @ Oregon – Oregon 54 ASU 35 - Loss
Georgia +8.5 @ Florida – Florida 24 UGA 10 – Loss
4-3 including a UConn bet. 4-2 if you followed the Big Al Rule. So this strategy is holding
4. On spreads from 10.0 to 13.5 take the favorite if it’s home otherwise pass
There were no situations like this in week 9.

5. From 14 to 20.5 take the home dog otherwise pass
Buffalo +18.0 vs Akron – Buffalo 41 Akron 20 - Win
Fresno State +14.0 vs Air Force – Air Force 31 FSU 21 - Win
Purdue +14.0 vs Penn State – Penn State 62 Purdue 24 - Loss
Florida International +17.0 vs Middle Tenn State – MTSU 42 FIU 35 - Win
Marshall +15.5 vs Southern Miss – Southern Miss 24 Marshall 14 - Win
Kent State +14.5 vs Central Michigan – Kent State 27 Central Michigan 24 - Win
UL Monroe +20.0 vs Arkansas State – Arkansas State 51 UL Monroe 10 – Loss
5-2 excellent. This strategy is a winner.
6. Teams giving 40 or more are perfect this year
Oklahoma -40.5 vs Kansas – Oklahoma 56 Kansas 3 - Win
Texas A&M -43.5 vs New Mexico State – Texas A&M 52 NMSU 10 – Loss
The strategy finally had a loss. Still, it’s 4-1 on the year.
Buffalo +18.0 vs Akron – Buffalo 41 Akron 20 - Win
Fresno State +14.0 vs Air Force – Air Force 31 FSU 21 - Win
Purdue +14.0 vs Penn State – Penn State 62 Purdue 24 - Loss
Florida International +17.0 vs Middle Tenn State – MTSU 42 FIU 35 - Win
Marshall +15.5 vs Southern Miss – Southern Miss 24 Marshall 14 - Win
Kent State +14.5 vs Central Michigan – Kent State 27 Central Michigan 24 - Win
UL Monroe +20.0 vs Arkansas State – Arkansas State 51 UL Monroe 10 – Loss
5-2 excellent. This strategy is a winner.
6. Teams giving 40 or more are perfect this year
Oklahoma -40.5 vs Kansas – Oklahoma 56 Kansas 3 - Win
Texas A&M -43.5 vs New Mexico State – Texas A&M 52 NMSU 10 – Loss
The strategy finally had a loss. Still, it’s 4-1 on the year.

Now, of course, the Doofus was awful in allocating the bets going 0-3 on the Mega Bets. I'm probably not going to Mega Bet this year and just put down a bunch of Mini Megas on teams getting points.
The Big Flippy did a trial run too. Going with:
Clemson - Loss
West Virginia - Loss
VaTech - Loss (appreciate the honesty and sending over the pick after Va Tech had already lost ATS)
ND - Win
Utah State - Loss
Texas - Win
Wisconsin - Loss
Mississippi State - Loss
Kansas State - Loss
San Diego - Loss
2-8 Ouch. Time to get a new Flippy.
Then again maybe it's just us. Woz texted after the games were over that he practiced betting too and went 4-15.
I told him that the way things are going this year, I'm just going to go up to the window and hand over my stash. When they ask for my picks, I'll tell them to just keep it. No sense going through the angst of watching my picks crater.
Woz says he is going to put all his football money on one spin of the roulette wheel. At least he has a chance.
I think Pat is gong to forego the football betting too. He has a great story about playing some slots poker. You'll need to come to the SportsBook to find out more
See you there! Won't be long now.
The Big Flippy did a trial run too. Going with:
Clemson - Loss
West Virginia - Loss
VaTech - Loss (appreciate the honesty and sending over the pick after Va Tech had already lost ATS)
ND - Win
Utah State - Loss
Texas - Win
Wisconsin - Loss
Mississippi State - Loss
Kansas State - Loss
San Diego - Loss
2-8 Ouch. Time to get a new Flippy.
Then again maybe it's just us. Woz texted after the games were over that he practiced betting too and went 4-15.
I told him that the way things are going this year, I'm just going to go up to the window and hand over my stash. When they ask for my picks, I'll tell them to just keep it. No sense going through the angst of watching my picks crater.
Woz says he is going to put all his football money on one spin of the roulette wheel. At least he has a chance.
I think Pat is gong to forego the football betting too. He has a great story about playing some slots poker. You'll need to come to the SportsBook to find out more
See you there! Won't be long now.