The Doofus has been poring through the data looking for trends I know. It's Michigan week. I'm geeked but unlike the last few years - a whole lot of doubt has crept in. I'm avoiding thinking about the game. I'm just going to enjoy it when it comes.
In the mean time, I've been reviewing the Big Book of Guesses' massive database
It’s Week 9. The last week before things go live. It’s all fun and games for now but next week real money will be on the line. Time to see if there are any betting angles to employ on Week 10
After eight weeks there are plenty of games that have been played. 414 to be exact (not including those involving Div 1AA teams). Enough to do some statistical sampling to see if there are any trends.
Statistical trends – I probably lost 90% of my audience right there. But for those who find this stuff interesting here are the results versus the spreads for all the Div 1A games played to date.
First – how did the favorites do against the spread?
In the mean time, I've been reviewing the Big Book of Guesses' massive database
It’s Week 9. The last week before things go live. It’s all fun and games for now but next week real money will be on the line. Time to see if there are any betting angles to employ on Week 10
After eight weeks there are plenty of games that have been played. 414 to be exact (not including those involving Div 1AA teams). Enough to do some statistical sampling to see if there are any trends.
Statistical trends – I probably lost 90% of my audience right there. But for those who find this stuff interesting here are the results versus the spreads for all the Div 1A games played to date.
First – how did the favorites do against the spread?
| Favorites Cover 196 | Underdogs Cover 208 | Push 10 | Favorites Cover % 49% | Underdogs Cover % 51% |
Not much there. If you just took the favorites you would have won 49% of the time.
How about if you just took the home teams?
How about if you just took the home teams?
| Home Teams Cover 190 | Visitors Cover 214 | Push 10 | Home Teams Cover % 47% | Visitors Cover % 53% |
Interesting. Just blindly taking the visitors would win enough to just cover the Vegas spiff.
How about a deeper dive. Are there any trends if you segregate the results by the spread?
If you use natural spread amounts of 3, 7, 10, 14, and beyond here is what you get
First - Favorites vs Underdogs by spread
How about a deeper dive. Are there any trends if you segregate the results by the spread?
If you use natural spread amounts of 3, 7, 10, 14, and beyond here is what you get
First - Favorites vs Underdogs by spread
| Line 0 - 3.0 3.5 - 6.5 7.0 - 9.5 10.0 -13.5 14.0 - 20.5 21.0 - 29.5 30.0 - 39.5 40.0 + Totals | Favorites Cover 30 42 21 35 35 22 8 3 196 | Underdogs Cover 23 41 36 29 44 23 12 0 208 | Push 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 10 | Favorites Cover % 57 51 37 55 44 49 40 100 49% | Underdogs Cover % 43 49 63 45 56 51 60 0 51% |
Now the fun starts. Similar to last year, if you just take the favorite on a spread of 3.0 or less you will make a nice profit. Also take the favorite with a spread from 10.0 to 13.5.
But the real money is in taking the underdog when the spread is from 7.0 to 9.5
Not sure we will see a 40 point spread on the GO JUMBO weekend but take the favorite. They have covered every time this year. And by the way, the BBofG got point greedy and took the underdog and the 40 plus points and lost every time.
How about home versus visitor segregated by spread.
But the real money is in taking the underdog when the spread is from 7.0 to 9.5
Not sure we will see a 40 point spread on the GO JUMBO weekend but take the favorite. They have covered every time this year. And by the way, the BBofG got point greedy and took the underdog and the 40 plus points and lost every time.
How about home versus visitor segregated by spread.
| Line 0 - 3.0 3.5 - 6.5 7.0 - 9.5 10.0 -13.5 14.0 - 20.5 21.0 - 29.5 30.0 - 39.5 40.0 + Totals | Home Teams Cover 26 35 22 35 40 21 8 3 190 | Visitors Cover 27 48 35 29 39 24 12 0 214 | Push 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 10 | Home Teams Cover % 49 42 39 55 51 47 40 100 47% | Visitors Cover % 51 58 61 45 49 53 60 0 53% |
Nice – taking the visitor from anywhere from 3.5 to 9.5 points is very profitable.
Now maybe that is because the visitor is typically the underdog when there are those kind of spreads. How about if we look at home favorites versus visiting underdogs and visa versa.
First – let’s take a look at how home favorites do versus visiting dogs
Now maybe that is because the visitor is typically the underdog when there are those kind of spreads. How about if we look at home favorites versus visiting underdogs and visa versa.
First – let’s take a look at how home favorites do versus visiting dogs
| Line 0 - 3.0 3.5 - 6.5 7.0 - 9.5 10.0 -13.5 14.0 - 20.5 21.0 - 29.5 30.0 - 39.5 40.0 + Totals | Home Favorites Cover 15 23 10 21 24 18 7 3 121 | Visiting Dogs Cover 12 29 24 15 28 20 11 0 139 | Push 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 10 | Home Favorites Cover 56 44 29 58 46 47 39 100 47% | Visiting Dogs Cover 44 56 71 42 54 53 61 0 53% |
Now that is interesting Wow! Taking the visiting underdog when the spread is from 7.0 to 9.5 is the way to go! Same when the spread is from 3.5 to 6.5. Combined, it’s a 62% winning rate. They may shut the betting windows when you show up if you win at that clip.
Conversely, take the home favorite when the spread is from 10 to 13.5.
How about when the home team is the underdog. That’s the way to go right?
Let’s see
Conversely, take the home favorite when the spread is from 10 to 13.5.
How about when the home team is the underdog. That’s the way to go right?
Let’s see
| Line 0 - 3.0 3.5 - 6.5 7.0 - 9.5 10.0 -13.5 14.0 - 20.5 21.0 - 29.5 30.0 - 39.5 40.0 + Totals | Home Underdogs Cover 11 12 12 14 16 3 1 0 69 | Visiting Favorites Cover 15 19 11 14 11 4 1 0 75 | Push 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 10 | Home Underdogs Cover 42 39 52 50 59 43 50 NA 48% | Visiting Favorites Cover 58 61 48 50 41 57 50 NA 52% |
Surprising. Taking the home dog doesn’t really pay off. It does from spreads of 2-3 TDs but that’s about it. You are actually better off taking the visiting favorite from 0 to a TD.
So what does it all mean. Well, first – do your homework. Don’t blindly use the trend.
That said, I'm going to use these trends to identify betting candidates:
Since this is the last week of practice before game time on Nov 5th lets see who fits into the betting trends using this week’s spreads
1. Take the favorite if the spread is from 0 to 3.0. Especially if the visitor is the favorite
Tulane -3.0 vs SMU (Bruce is happy)
Miami (FL) -2.0 @ Notre Dame (Visitor favorite)
Hawaii -3.0 vs New Mexico
UNLV -2.5 @ San Jose State (Visitor favorite but yuck game)
2. On spreads from 3.5 to 6.5 take the favorite if it’s the visitor otherwise pass
Va Tech -3.5 @ Pitt
Appalachian State -5.0 @ Georgia Southern
San Diego State -5.5 @ Utah State (The Sheriff agrees!)
Clemson -4.0 @ Florida State
Baylor -3.5 @ Texas
Kansas State -6.5 @ Iowa State
West Virginia -3.5 @ Oklahoma State
Old Dominion -4.5 @ UTEP
Stanford -5.5 @ Arizona
Auburn -4.5 @ Ole Miss (The Big Guy likes this)
3. From 7.0 to 9.5 take the underdog if it’s the visitor otherwise pass
Connecticut +7.0 @ East Carolina (Big Al Rule - no bet)
Central Florida +9.5 @ Houston (But Houston in bounce back situation - I'll pass)
Nebraska +9.0 @ Wisconsin (can Bucky cover this big of a number?)
Texas Tech +9.5 @ TCU
Miami (OH) +7.5 @ Eastern Michigan (nope, I like the Hurons)
Arizona State +8.0 @ Oregon
Georgia +8.5 @ Florida (neutral site and rivalry game)
4. On spreads from 10.0 to 13.5 take the favorite if it’s home otherwise pass
No home favorites this week in that range
5. From 14 to 20.5 take the home dog otherwise pass
Buffalo +18.0 vs Akron (The Bulls are really bad – I’ll pass)
Fresno State +14.0 vs Air Force (The Bulldogs are breaking in a new HC – worth a shot)
Purdue +14.0 vs Penn State (Nits in a fade, Can the Boiler new HC effect work 2 weeks in a row)
Florida International +17.0 vs Middle Tenn State
Marshall +15.5 vs Southern Miss
Kent State +14.5 vs Central Michigan
UL Monroe +20.0 vs Arkansas State
Other than the Buffalo game, what the heck, I’ll put the analysis to the test and put half a quatloo on each. But there is a reason these teams are getting so many points – they are the dregs of college football. That said, they tend to cover because they are getting a ton of points and their opponent is just not that into you.
6. Teams giving 40 or more are perfect this year so I’ll put a quatloo each on
Oklahoma -40.5 vs Kansas
Texas A&M -43.5 vs New Mexico State (Aggies in a bounce back situation too!)
So what does it all mean. Well, first – do your homework. Don’t blindly use the trend.
That said, I'm going to use these trends to identify betting candidates:
- Take the favorite if the spread is from 0 to 3.0. Especially if the visitor is the favorite
- On spreads from 3.5 to 6.5 take the favorite if it’s the visitor otherwise pass
- From 7.0 to 9.5 take the underdog if it’s the visitor otherwise pass
- On spreads from 10.0 to 13.5 take the favorite if it’s home otherwise pass
- From 14-20.5 take the home dog otherwise pass
- Above 3TDs the sample size isn’t big enough to warrant a conclusion
Since this is the last week of practice before game time on Nov 5th lets see who fits into the betting trends using this week’s spreads
1. Take the favorite if the spread is from 0 to 3.0. Especially if the visitor is the favorite
Tulane -3.0 vs SMU (Bruce is happy)
Miami (FL) -2.0 @ Notre Dame (Visitor favorite)
Hawaii -3.0 vs New Mexico
UNLV -2.5 @ San Jose State (Visitor favorite but yuck game)
2. On spreads from 3.5 to 6.5 take the favorite if it’s the visitor otherwise pass
Va Tech -3.5 @ Pitt
Appalachian State -5.0 @ Georgia Southern
San Diego State -5.5 @ Utah State (The Sheriff agrees!)
Clemson -4.0 @ Florida State
Baylor -3.5 @ Texas
Kansas State -6.5 @ Iowa State
West Virginia -3.5 @ Oklahoma State
Old Dominion -4.5 @ UTEP
Stanford -5.5 @ Arizona
Auburn -4.5 @ Ole Miss (The Big Guy likes this)
3. From 7.0 to 9.5 take the underdog if it’s the visitor otherwise pass
Connecticut +7.0 @ East Carolina (Big Al Rule - no bet)
Central Florida +9.5 @ Houston (But Houston in bounce back situation - I'll pass)
Nebraska +9.0 @ Wisconsin (can Bucky cover this big of a number?)
Texas Tech +9.5 @ TCU
Miami (OH) +7.5 @ Eastern Michigan (nope, I like the Hurons)
Arizona State +8.0 @ Oregon
Georgia +8.5 @ Florida (neutral site and rivalry game)
4. On spreads from 10.0 to 13.5 take the favorite if it’s home otherwise pass
No home favorites this week in that range
5. From 14 to 20.5 take the home dog otherwise pass
Buffalo +18.0 vs Akron (The Bulls are really bad – I’ll pass)
Fresno State +14.0 vs Air Force (The Bulldogs are breaking in a new HC – worth a shot)
Purdue +14.0 vs Penn State (Nits in a fade, Can the Boiler new HC effect work 2 weeks in a row)
Florida International +17.0 vs Middle Tenn State
Marshall +15.5 vs Southern Miss
Kent State +14.5 vs Central Michigan
UL Monroe +20.0 vs Arkansas State
Other than the Buffalo game, what the heck, I’ll put the analysis to the test and put half a quatloo on each. But there is a reason these teams are getting so many points – they are the dregs of college football. That said, they tend to cover because they are getting a ton of points and their opponent is just not that into you.
6. Teams giving 40 or more are perfect this year so I’ll put a quatloo each on
Oklahoma -40.5 vs Kansas
Texas A&M -43.5 vs New Mexico State (Aggies in a bounce back situation too!)
Watson should be the difference this year So this is where the Doofus comes in. The BBofG has made its picks. How does the Doofus allocate the betting money. I'll put a quatloo on all the above games unless otherwise indicated.
I'll go with Mega Bets on:
Clemson -4.0 @ Florida State - For seven straight years, the winner of this game has been the Atlantic division champion. Louisville is trying to crash the party but if Clemson wins give them the crown right after the game. If FSU wins then things could get interesting.
For all the talk about the DeShaun Watson and the Tiger offense, it's the defense that has Clemson on the verge of the playoffs. Clemson ranks in the top 10 in the nation in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense, and the Tigers average a whopping nine tackles for loss per game.
The soft part of the defense? The run defense. Not what you want to hear when lining up against Dalvin Cook, rested and ready coming off a bye.
Clemson is coming off a bye too. Watson will get some time to heal. Last time out he was lighting up a pesky NC State defense for nearly 400 yards passing.
The home team has won 12 of the last 14 games and Clemson hasn't won at the Doak since 2006 but Clemson has owned this series going 8-3 ATS. Watson is going to be the difference as he starts to run again putting the game away on the 4th.
I'll go with Mega Bets on:
Clemson -4.0 @ Florida State - For seven straight years, the winner of this game has been the Atlantic division champion. Louisville is trying to crash the party but if Clemson wins give them the crown right after the game. If FSU wins then things could get interesting.
For all the talk about the DeShaun Watson and the Tiger offense, it's the defense that has Clemson on the verge of the playoffs. Clemson ranks in the top 10 in the nation in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense, and the Tigers average a whopping nine tackles for loss per game.
The soft part of the defense? The run defense. Not what you want to hear when lining up against Dalvin Cook, rested and ready coming off a bye.
Clemson is coming off a bye too. Watson will get some time to heal. Last time out he was lighting up a pesky NC State defense for nearly 400 yards passing.
The home team has won 12 of the last 14 games and Clemson hasn't won at the Doak since 2006 but Clemson has owned this series going 8-3 ATS. Watson is going to be the difference as he starts to run again putting the game away on the 4th.
Imagine that - a Big 12 team that actually plays defense West Virginia -3.5 @ Oklahoma State - Clemson having a good defense - yeah I get that but West Virginia? A Big 12 team?
The 'Neer defense has been fantastic this year ranking 15th in points allowed including holding TCU to 10 points and Texas Tech to 17. The same Red Raider offense that just went off for 59 points against Oklahoma.
Okie State can put up the points. They rank 14th in scoring but they have yet to face an honest to goodness defense.
WVU QB Skylar Howard is completing 2/3 of his passes for over 1,800 yards. He just lit up TCU for 300 yards and 4 TDs. He'll torch a porous Cowboy secondary while the WVU secondary makes enough stops to pull out a win.
The 'Neer defense has been fantastic this year ranking 15th in points allowed including holding TCU to 10 points and Texas Tech to 17. The same Red Raider offense that just went off for 59 points against Oklahoma.
Okie State can put up the points. They rank 14th in scoring but they have yet to face an honest to goodness defense.
WVU QB Skylar Howard is completing 2/3 of his passes for over 1,800 yards. He just lit up TCU for 300 yards and 4 TDs. He'll torch a porous Cowboy secondary while the WVU secondary makes enough stops to pull out a win.
Joey Bosa has sparked the San Diego defense San Diego +4.5 @ Denver - The Chargers finally got over the hump and won a close game instead of blowing it. This time Atlanta doinked and forced OT where San Diego won.
Philip Rivers has been red hot lately and the defense has picked up since Joey Bosa entered the line up. Much like two weeks ago, Bosa will constantly rattle Denver QB Trevor Siemian.
Meanwhile the Chargers will move down the field using the Rivers to Antonio Gates.
The line has dropped from 6.5 to 4.5 as the sharps are pounding the Chargers. I'l go with them.
Philip Rivers has been red hot lately and the defense has picked up since Joey Bosa entered the line up. Much like two weeks ago, Bosa will constantly rattle Denver QB Trevor Siemian.
Meanwhile the Chargers will move down the field using the Rivers to Antonio Gates.
The line has dropped from 6.5 to 4.5 as the sharps are pounding the Chargers. I'l go with them.
Teams are blowing past Pitts defense I'll go with a bunch of Mini Megas too
Virginia Tech -3.5 @ Pitt - Pitts defense is not up to Narduzzi's standards. Hokies roll
Miami (FL) -2.0 @ Notre Dame - Remember when this was a big game - Convicts vs Catholics
San Diego State -5.5 @ Utah State - The Sheriff and the BBofG are on the same page. Somethings up
Baylor -3.5 @ Texas - Charlie's hot seat gets warmer still
Nebraska +9.0 @ Wisconsin - Bucky doesn't like big numbers
Auburn -4.5 @ Mississippi - The Tigers defense is far better this year. They are on track to decide the SEC West in the Iron Bowl
Kansas State -6.5 @ Iowa State - The Clones have had two weeks to stew over a beat down by a mediocre Texas team. It won't help. The Wildcats take care of business
I'll do another Point Whore Parlay too with
Cal +16.5 @ Southern Cal
Virginia +33.5 vs Louisville
Northwestern +26.5 @ Ohio State
The Sheriff had an "off" week going 1-1-1. This week he hopes to get back to his winning ways with
Cal/USC (OVER) 75.5. The Sheriff is going to lock in this number before it goes even higher (and it probably will, having opened at 70.5). The Condoms have won 3 straight since starting the season 1-3 and would probably be the pick to win the PAC-12 South right now if they weren’t one game behind Colorado in the standings. The Golden Bears play with a lot of heart and the Sheriff is tempted to take the 16 points, but he is going stick with the OVER instead. Speaking of OVERs, the Cal/Oregon game last week had the highest over/under of any game since 1980 (see link).
http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2016/10/22/13365122/california-golden-bears-oregon-ducks-over-under-90-betting-odds
Washington (-10) over Utah. This is the game of the week in the PAC-12 as Chris Peterson’s team rolls into the alkaline flats of the Great Salt Lake desert with a perfect 7-0 record and the largest margin of victory (33.7 points) in the nation. Utah, on the other hand, is one of the weaker 7-1 teams in the country, barely eking out wins over bad PAC-12 teams like Oregon State and UCLA in the past two weeks. If UCLA can hang 45 points on this Ute defense without Josh Rosen, what can Jake Browning do to it? Huskies roll.
San Diego State (-6) over Utah State. RB Donnel Pumphrey is averaging 178 yards/game and will lead the Aztecs to an easy win over a very mediocre Utah State team.
And for all of this weeks games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2016 Week 9 Bettors Guide
Cal/USC (OVER) 75.5. The Sheriff is going to lock in this number before it goes even higher (and it probably will, having opened at 70.5). The Condoms have won 3 straight since starting the season 1-3 and would probably be the pick to win the PAC-12 South right now if they weren’t one game behind Colorado in the standings. The Golden Bears play with a lot of heart and the Sheriff is tempted to take the 16 points, but he is going stick with the OVER instead. Speaking of OVERs, the Cal/Oregon game last week had the highest over/under of any game since 1980 (see link).
http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2016/10/22/13365122/california-golden-bears-oregon-ducks-over-under-90-betting-odds
Washington (-10) over Utah. This is the game of the week in the PAC-12 as Chris Peterson’s team rolls into the alkaline flats of the Great Salt Lake desert with a perfect 7-0 record and the largest margin of victory (33.7 points) in the nation. Utah, on the other hand, is one of the weaker 7-1 teams in the country, barely eking out wins over bad PAC-12 teams like Oregon State and UCLA in the past two weeks. If UCLA can hang 45 points on this Ute defense without Josh Rosen, what can Jake Browning do to it? Huskies roll.
San Diego State (-6) over Utah State. RB Donnel Pumphrey is averaging 178 yards/game and will lead the Aztecs to an easy win over a very mediocre Utah State team.
And for all of this weeks games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2016 Week 9 Bettors Guide
| 2016 Week 9 Bettors Guide.xlsx |
