MSU got the weekend off to a good start sprinting to a win over Iowa The Doofus deck was rockin’ again last week. Things got off to a great start when MSU put a beat down on Iowa 26-14. And things were really rocking with Rutgers wild win over SMU.
Georgia Tech losing to Miami (FL) and UNC losing to Va Tech were disappointments
but didn’t dampen our spirits. We kept our enthusiasm up with various types of
whiskey and an occasional beer as we awaited Game Day in Evanston.
The Wildcats were taking it to the Bucknuts for most of the game leading 30-27 with 5 minutes left. But OSU Carlos Hyde was dominant in the second half and a TD with 5:22 left put Brutus up for good. Then, the last play of the game will be talked about in Vegas for years. The Cats inside their 20 threw a short pass and tried lateralling their way to a score. But they fumbled into the end zone where OSU recovered as time expired. It changed the score from 33-30 to 40-30. A meaningless score except in Sin City where the spread was 7. I’ve seen estimates where perhaps over $100 million changed hands on that goofy play.
Georgia Tech losing to Miami (FL) and UNC losing to Va Tech were disappointments
but didn’t dampen our spirits. We kept our enthusiasm up with various types of
whiskey and an occasional beer as we awaited Game Day in Evanston.
The Wildcats were taking it to the Bucknuts for most of the game leading 30-27 with 5 minutes left. But OSU Carlos Hyde was dominant in the second half and a TD with 5:22 left put Brutus up for good. Then, the last play of the game will be talked about in Vegas for years. The Cats inside their 20 threw a short pass and tried lateralling their way to a score. But they fumbled into the end zone where OSU recovered as time expired. It changed the score from 33-30 to 40-30. A meaningless score except in Sin City where the spread was 7. I’ve seen estimates where perhaps over $100 million changed hands on that goofy play.
But non covers by Central Florida But the big disappointment was the Mega Bets. Using more situational analysis the Doofus was awful going 0-3 as
Central Florida -10.0 vs Memphis – Memphis was winning this game outright until UCF scored not one but two fumble returns in the last two minutes to lead 24-17. Memphis then took the ensuing kickoff to the house only to have it called back.
The Tigers were not done though They drove to the Knights 6 only to have a halfback pass intercepted in the endzone. I was rooting for a miracle 105 yard pick six but the Knights kneeled it for a touchback and win but not the cover LOSS
Stanford -7.5 vs Washington – Washington is for real. They battled Stanford toe to toe for all four quarters. The Tree had a 31-21 lead late into the fourth quarter but a Husky TD with 2:38 left gave Washington the cover. LOSS
Denver -7.5 @ Dallas In the one game I ignored the situational analysis bit me in the butt, Dallas was playing with their backs to the wall at home against Denver in a meaningless game for them. The result was one of the highest scoring games in NFL history. Whoever had the ball scored. In the end it was Dnver scoring a FG to win 54-51
but not getting the cover. LOSS
Central Florida -10.0 vs Memphis – Memphis was winning this game outright until UCF scored not one but two fumble returns in the last two minutes to lead 24-17. Memphis then took the ensuing kickoff to the house only to have it called back.
The Tigers were not done though They drove to the Knights 6 only to have a halfback pass intercepted in the endzone. I was rooting for a miracle 105 yard pick six but the Knights kneeled it for a touchback and win but not the cover LOSS
Stanford -7.5 vs Washington – Washington is for real. They battled Stanford toe to toe for all four quarters. The Tree had a 31-21 lead late into the fourth quarter but a Husky TD with 2:38 left gave Washington the cover. LOSS
Denver -7.5 @ Dallas In the one game I ignored the situational analysis bit me in the butt, Dallas was playing with their backs to the wall at home against Denver in a meaningless game for them. The result was one of the highest scoring games in NFL history. Whoever had the ball scored. In the end it was Dnver scoring a FG to win 54-51
but not getting the cover. LOSS
Stanford and So how did the situational analysis do?
Revenge games
Utah State -6.0 vs BYU - BYU 31 USU 15 Loss
Michigan State PK @ Iowa – MSU 26 Iowa 14 Win
Baylor -27.5 vs West Virginia - Baylor 73 WVU 42 Win
Oklahoma State -14 vs Kansas State OSU 33 KSU 29 Loss
Missouri PK @ Vanderbilt – Mizzou 51 Vandy 29 Win
Bounce back games
Notre Dame +6.0 vs Arizona State - ND 37 ASU 34 Win (Stupid
Joe rule)
Toledo -22.0 vs Western Michigan – Rockets 47 Broncos 20 Win
LSU -9.5 @ Miss State – LSU 59 Other MSU 26 Win
Revenge games
Utah State -6.0 vs BYU - BYU 31 USU 15 Loss
Michigan State PK @ Iowa – MSU 26 Iowa 14 Win
Baylor -27.5 vs West Virginia - Baylor 73 WVU 42 Win
Oklahoma State -14 vs Kansas State OSU 33 KSU 29 Loss
Missouri PK @ Vanderbilt – Mizzou 51 Vandy 29 Win
Bounce back games
Notre Dame +6.0 vs Arizona State - ND 37 ASU 34 Win (Stupid
Joe rule)
Toledo -22.0 vs Western Michigan – Rockets 47 Broncos 20 Win
LSU -9.5 @ Miss State – LSU 59 Other MSU 26 Win
Denver led to Let Down games
Tennessee +10.5 vs Georgia – Mutts 34 Vols 31 Win
So overall the Situational analysis went 7-4 and I mega betted 2 of the 4 losses. Yeesh.That’s just sad
But, these things have a way of turning themselves around. So here are the situational analyses for Week 8
Week 7 Revenge games
Va Tech lost to Pitt 35-17
Army lost to Eastern Michigan 48-38
Hawaii crushed UNLV 48-10
Cal destroyed UCLA 43-17
Florida beat LSU 14-6
Bounce Back games
Utah State +5.5 vs Boise State (USU lost its starting QB last week though)
Maryland -6.0 vs Virginia
Northwestern +10.0 @ Wisconsin
TCU -25.0 vs Kansas
Arizona State -26.5 vs Colorado
Washington +13.5 vs Oregon
Tennessee +10.5 vs Georgia – Mutts 34 Vols 31 Win
So overall the Situational analysis went 7-4 and I mega betted 2 of the 4 losses. Yeesh.That’s just sad
But, these things have a way of turning themselves around. So here are the situational analyses for Week 8
Week 7 Revenge games
Va Tech lost to Pitt 35-17
Army lost to Eastern Michigan 48-38
Hawaii crushed UNLV 48-10
Cal destroyed UCLA 43-17
Florida beat LSU 14-6
Bounce Back games
Utah State +5.5 vs Boise State (USU lost its starting QB last week though)
Maryland -6.0 vs Virginia
Northwestern +10.0 @ Wisconsin
TCU -25.0 vs Kansas
Arizona State -26.5 vs Colorado
Washington +13.5 vs Oregon
A pretty effed up weekend Let Down games
Michigan State -10.0 vs Indiana (2nd team listed is in let down situation)
Kent State +14.5 @ Ball State
Lots of interesting opportunities this week. But after looking at the spreads I think I will go with:
Week 7 Mega Bets
Virginia Tech -9.0 vs Pitt – Pitt’s offense has been inconsistent this year. One week they are putting up 58 points on Duke and the next they are limited to 14 by Virginia. Va Tech’s defense has been consistently good this year and should limit the Panther points. Hokie QB Logan Thomas has been on a tear lately. I was worried about the large spread but Frank Beamer is 57-29-2 in revenge match ups so I’ll lay the points.
UCLA -24.5 vs Cal – UCLA has been crushing every bad team in their path. They beat Nevada by 38 and New Mexico State by 46. Hell, they beat a good Nebraska team by
20. So spotting a really bad Cal team 26 should be a piece of cake. The Bruins will get their revenge.
Baltimore +3.0 vs Green Bay – Baltimore is getting no love this season. Last February they were hoisting the Vince
trophy and this week they are home dogs. Last week they were 2.5 point underdogs to a good but not great Miami team and beat them 26-23. Now they are getting 3 to Green Bay who just lost Clay Matthews. The Pack is struggling in the red zone while the Ravens are number 4 in red zone defense. Field Goals aren’t going to do it this week in Baltimore. Ravens rule.
I’ll go with a few Min Megas this week too with:
Nebraska -14.0 @ Purdue
Troy -16.5 @ Georgia State
Texas Tech -15.0 vs Iowa State
The Sheriff also had a losing week with
UCLA (-6) over Utah. Final score UCLA 24 Utah 17 WIN (barely but it counts)
Cal (+1.5) over Wash State. Final Score Wazzou 44 Cal 22 LOSS
Stanford (-7.5) over Washington. Final Score Stanford 31 Washington 28 LOSS Blame the Doofus for this one – my bad Sheriff
This week he is going with:
The Sheriff is a dog lover and likes two underdogs this week.
Washington (+14) over Oregon. I picked against the Huskies last week, but outgaining Stanford 489 to 284 has turned me into a believer. I think Washington will easily cover the number (if not win the game outright). Oregon has won 5 straight blowouts and is bound to get nervous with the game on the line in the 4th quarter.
Utah (+9) over Stanford. I think Stanford will win, but I like Utah to cover this number. The Utes are tough at home, and Travis Wilson has shown he is an upper echelon PAC-12 quarterback. Utah gave UCLA all it could handle and
has had a couple of extra days to prepare for the Cardinal.
UCLA (-24.5) over Cal. I’m almost embarrassed to pick this game, but it’s the easiest game of the week. Cal has the 122nd ranked defense in the country and hasn’t won in Pasadena this century. This game will be over by halftime.
Hope I don’t jinx the Sheriff’s pick again this week
And here are all the picks for week 7
Michigan State -10.0 vs Indiana (2nd team listed is in let down situation)
Kent State +14.5 @ Ball State
Lots of interesting opportunities this week. But after looking at the spreads I think I will go with:
Week 7 Mega Bets
Virginia Tech -9.0 vs Pitt – Pitt’s offense has been inconsistent this year. One week they are putting up 58 points on Duke and the next they are limited to 14 by Virginia. Va Tech’s defense has been consistently good this year and should limit the Panther points. Hokie QB Logan Thomas has been on a tear lately. I was worried about the large spread but Frank Beamer is 57-29-2 in revenge match ups so I’ll lay the points.
UCLA -24.5 vs Cal – UCLA has been crushing every bad team in their path. They beat Nevada by 38 and New Mexico State by 46. Hell, they beat a good Nebraska team by
20. So spotting a really bad Cal team 26 should be a piece of cake. The Bruins will get their revenge.
Baltimore +3.0 vs Green Bay – Baltimore is getting no love this season. Last February they were hoisting the Vince
trophy and this week they are home dogs. Last week they were 2.5 point underdogs to a good but not great Miami team and beat them 26-23. Now they are getting 3 to Green Bay who just lost Clay Matthews. The Pack is struggling in the red zone while the Ravens are number 4 in red zone defense. Field Goals aren’t going to do it this week in Baltimore. Ravens rule.
I’ll go with a few Min Megas this week too with:
Nebraska -14.0 @ Purdue
Troy -16.5 @ Georgia State
Texas Tech -15.0 vs Iowa State
The Sheriff also had a losing week with
UCLA (-6) over Utah. Final score UCLA 24 Utah 17 WIN (barely but it counts)
Cal (+1.5) over Wash State. Final Score Wazzou 44 Cal 22 LOSS
Stanford (-7.5) over Washington. Final Score Stanford 31 Washington 28 LOSS Blame the Doofus for this one – my bad Sheriff
This week he is going with:
The Sheriff is a dog lover and likes two underdogs this week.
Washington (+14) over Oregon. I picked against the Huskies last week, but outgaining Stanford 489 to 284 has turned me into a believer. I think Washington will easily cover the number (if not win the game outright). Oregon has won 5 straight blowouts and is bound to get nervous with the game on the line in the 4th quarter.
Utah (+9) over Stanford. I think Stanford will win, but I like Utah to cover this number. The Utes are tough at home, and Travis Wilson has shown he is an upper echelon PAC-12 quarterback. Utah gave UCLA all it could handle and
has had a couple of extra days to prepare for the Cardinal.
UCLA (-24.5) over Cal. I’m almost embarrassed to pick this game, but it’s the easiest game of the week. Cal has the 122nd ranked defense in the country and hasn’t won in Pasadena this century. This game will be over by halftime.
Hope I don’t jinx the Sheriff’s pick again this week
And here are all the picks for week 7
| 2013_weekly_predictions_week_7.xlsx |
Only 2 more weeks until GO JUMBO
