Oh my - I'm fired?? The Coaching Carousel started early this year as Lane Kiffin was pink slipped before breakfast on Sunday morning. I figured Little Kiffin would get his walking papers but I thought he would get through the season.
USC DL coach Ed Orgeron will take the whistle for the Trojan program. Orgeron came over with Lane from Tennessee. He’s had some success at USC where he was National Recruiter of the year in 2004. He immediately took that hardware to Ole Miss where he was head coach from 2005 to 2007. Those teams sucked but he did recruit Michael Oher while there. And he actually played himself in the move The Blind Side. He then went over to the Saints to become their DL coach in 2008 and hooked up with Kiffin at Tennessee starting in 2009.
Given his track record – unless he blows it out of the water, Ed will be looking for a new job come December. And one other trivia tidbit to impress your friends on the bar stool next to you – Orgeron played high school ball with Bobby Herbert – the old QB from the Saints, Falcons and Michigan Panthers!
And then on Monday UConn fired Head coach Paul Pasqualoni. Just like Kiffin – you could see these firings coming as soon as they were hired. Just surprised that he didn’t make it to at least Thanksgiving either. Next up is Mack brown at Texas.
USC DL coach Ed Orgeron will take the whistle for the Trojan program. Orgeron came over with Lane from Tennessee. He’s had some success at USC where he was National Recruiter of the year in 2004. He immediately took that hardware to Ole Miss where he was head coach from 2005 to 2007. Those teams sucked but he did recruit Michael Oher while there. And he actually played himself in the move The Blind Side. He then went over to the Saints to become their DL coach in 2008 and hooked up with Kiffin at Tennessee starting in 2009.
Given his track record – unless he blows it out of the water, Ed will be looking for a new job come December. And one other trivia tidbit to impress your friends on the bar stool next to you – Orgeron played high school ball with Bobby Herbert – the old QB from the Saints, Falcons and Michigan Panthers!
And then on Monday UConn fired Head coach Paul Pasqualoni. Just like Kiffin – you could see these firings coming as soon as they were hired. Just surprised that he didn’t make it to at least Thanksgiving either. Next up is Mack brown at Texas.
The 'Neers were on a mission Week 5 Recap and much much more
And while Lane and Paul awoke to a unplanned holidays – the Doofus awoke to a meh record on the Mega Bets. There were a couple of really good picks and a couple of really bad picks. Gotta stop making the bad picks. The way forward is contained in an email from Jamie the Doofus Patawan. He blasted me for taking way too many visitors. Very true - I had fallen into an old bad habit.
The real problem is that my assessment of the teams is going all right – last week the Big Book of Guesses went 30-16-2 against the spread on the college games and 7-7-1 in the NFL (still haven’t gotten things going in the NFL. Coming into the week the Doofus was a lousy 0-2-1 on NFL Mega Bets.) – it’s taking in the situational analysis too. Teams, especially college teams can only get up for a few games a year. The best bets are when you can get a good team that is playing with tons of emotion.
Get a good team going through the motions going against a not as good team fired up and you can forget about giving the points.
Case in point – Oklahoma State -19.0 @ West Virginia – WVU is not that good of a team. They have their issues. But they had their backs against the wall trying to salvage the season. And they were playing at home against a highly ranked team. The ‘Neers played their best game of the season (by far) and beat OSU as 19.5 point
underdogs. Could they done it on the road? I don’t know. Would it have happened towards the end of the
season if they were something like 2-8. Doubt it – at the end of the season bad teams go into the tank and play out the string. But while there is still a chance a bowl, at home in front of a raucous crowd the ‘Neers played out of their minds. Lesson relearned again this year – don’t lay points against a team with their backs to the wall at home. As massive underdogs WVU pulled off the upset 30-21. LOSS
Other examples so far this year of the “backs to the wall” – UConn trying to salvage the season, at home, almost beat Michigan. Buffalo then turned around and did the same thing to UConn the next week, Boston College held tough against Florida State, East Carolina smoked UNC. Underperforming teams coming home getting points can be a nasty trap.
And while Lane and Paul awoke to a unplanned holidays – the Doofus awoke to a meh record on the Mega Bets. There were a couple of really good picks and a couple of really bad picks. Gotta stop making the bad picks. The way forward is contained in an email from Jamie the Doofus Patawan. He blasted me for taking way too many visitors. Very true - I had fallen into an old bad habit.
The real problem is that my assessment of the teams is going all right – last week the Big Book of Guesses went 30-16-2 against the spread on the college games and 7-7-1 in the NFL (still haven’t gotten things going in the NFL. Coming into the week the Doofus was a lousy 0-2-1 on NFL Mega Bets.) – it’s taking in the situational analysis too. Teams, especially college teams can only get up for a few games a year. The best bets are when you can get a good team that is playing with tons of emotion.
Get a good team going through the motions going against a not as good team fired up and you can forget about giving the points.
Case in point – Oklahoma State -19.0 @ West Virginia – WVU is not that good of a team. They have their issues. But they had their backs against the wall trying to salvage the season. And they were playing at home against a highly ranked team. The ‘Neers played their best game of the season (by far) and beat OSU as 19.5 point
underdogs. Could they done it on the road? I don’t know. Would it have happened towards the end of the
season if they were something like 2-8. Doubt it – at the end of the season bad teams go into the tank and play out the string. But while there is still a chance a bowl, at home in front of a raucous crowd the ‘Neers played out of their minds. Lesson relearned again this year – don’t lay points against a team with their backs to the wall at home. As massive underdogs WVU pulled off the upset 30-21. LOSS
Other examples so far this year of the “backs to the wall” – UConn trying to salvage the season, at home, almost beat Michigan. Buffalo then turned around and did the same thing to UConn the next week, Boston College held tough against Florida State, East Carolina smoked UNC. Underperforming teams coming home getting points can be a nasty trap.
Take that Domers!! Another situational angle – good teams in a revenge scenario can play pretty damn good. Like Oklahoma -3.0 @ Notre Dame – A revenge game for the Sooners. Oklahoma was the better team, out for revenge on the national stage. Nothing more needed to be said. They were bound to win this game no matter what. All that was in doubt would be the final margin. Given the spread was only 3, this was easy pickings. The Sooners jumped out to a 14-0 lead on two early picks and then cruised winning 35-21 WIN
Now the situation flips – Notre Dame is playing with their backs to the wall at home. Watch out Sun Devils.
Another situational match up is good teams coming off a tough loss or upset can bounce back with a vengeance. Penn State got upset by Central Florida (Not much of an upset really – just ask the Gamecocks. UCF is that good)
then came back and blew out Kent State.
Wisconsin got hosed by the refs at Arizona State and the turned around and pissed all over the Boilermakers. Texas A&M had Bama dead to rights but blew it. The next week the blew out SMU (though admittedly barely getting the 28.5 cover)
Georgia lost to Clemson in another great game to start the season then took out South Carolina 41-30 in week 2 (in a revenge match up to boot)
Boise State lost a heartbreaker to Fresno State in week 4 then blasted Southern Miss 60-7 in week 5.
A final situational scenario is the let down factor. Bad teams coming off a huge upset or tough loss can tank the next week. We already talked about UConn – there are more. Army hung tough against Stanford in week 3 but then got trounced by a bad Wake Forest team in Week 4. Wake Forest then got wiped out by Clemson in week 5. Purdue played Notre Dame tough in week 3 and then got smoked by Wisconsin in week 4.
Now the situation flips – Notre Dame is playing with their backs to the wall at home. Watch out Sun Devils.
Another situational match up is good teams coming off a tough loss or upset can bounce back with a vengeance. Penn State got upset by Central Florida (Not much of an upset really – just ask the Gamecocks. UCF is that good)
then came back and blew out Kent State.
Wisconsin got hosed by the refs at Arizona State and the turned around and pissed all over the Boilermakers. Texas A&M had Bama dead to rights but blew it. The next week the blew out SMU (though admittedly barely getting the 28.5 cover)
Georgia lost to Clemson in another great game to start the season then took out South Carolina 41-30 in week 2 (in a revenge match up to boot)
Boise State lost a heartbreaker to Fresno State in week 4 then blasted Southern Miss 60-7 in week 5.
A final situational scenario is the let down factor. Bad teams coming off a huge upset or tough loss can tank the next week. We already talked about UConn – there are more. Army hung tough against Stanford in week 3 but then got trounced by a bad Wake Forest team in Week 4. Wake Forest then got wiped out by Clemson in week 5. Purdue played Notre Dame tough in week 3 and then got smoked by Wisconsin in week 4.
Wyoming never saw it coming My second bad loss is an example of the let down factor. Wyoming -11.0 @ Texas State – Wyoming was coming off a huge revenge
game win over Air Force. There is a lot of bad
blood going on between the two head
coaches and the Cowboy pulled off a very
satisfying win. They were bound to come out flat on the road against a middle of the pack Sun Belt Team. Much like South Alabama, I under estimated Texas State a bit but a bigger
factor was the situational spot against Wyoming. Texas State won the game as big underdogs 42-21. LOSS
And just to finish off the recap – the NFL game had no situational factors at all. Over/Unders really don’t play out that way since they involve both teams. It
was just plain good old analysis. Arizona @ Tampa Bay under 40.5 – as expected both teams played good defense. There were turnovers galore. All, thankfully around midfield or as teams approached the red zone. Final Score Arizona 13 Bucs 10 WIN
That left the Doofus chewing on a mediocre 2-2 record for the weekend and level par for the year so far at 7-7-1. Very Flippyesque
So what are the good situational line ups this week? Well, there are several revenge match ups this weekend starting with
Western Kentucky lost a huge game against UL Monroe last year that went a long way towards determining the Sun Belt champion. UL Monroe is way down this year. But WKU is coming off an upset of Navy and the game is at UL
Monroe so conflicting situations
Utah State got nipped last year by BYU in a great game. Now the game is at Utah State. I thought the Aggies
would take a step back when they lost their head coach to Wisconsin but nope – they are still trucking along. No
counter trend with BYU – they are coming off an expected blasting of Middle Tennessee State.
Michigan State blew it in the fourth quarter against Iowa last year (The Doofus was having a great time with the Sax Man at Ole Miss until we got the results) Now they head to Ames. If this was in East Lansing it would be an easier pick. But Iowa is coming off a huge win for the Pig of Rosedale. Little Hawkeye let down perhaps?
Baylor lost a high scoring affair to West Virginia last year 70-63. Now the game is at Baylor. And WVU is coming off a huge upset of Oklahoma State. Stars are aligning.
Oklahoma State got beat by Kansas State last year and they are bouncing back from a tough loss to WVU. Home game for the Cowboys.
Stanford lost only two games last year. One to Notre Dame and the other is this week’s opponent – Washington. Game is in Palo Alto.
Missouri lost to Vandy which sent them into a tai spin but the play a Dore squad that has ts backs to the wall at home.
Teams in a bounce back situation – Notre Dame will likely bounce back at home against a Arizona State team coming off a high of beating USC.
Toledo is coming off a tough loss to Ball State. Now they take on a floundering Western Michigan in the Rubber Bowl.
LSU lost a heartbreaker to Georgia and now travels to Starksville to take on Mississippi State. Could be a trap game though if the Tigers are looking ahead to playing Florida the following week.
Central Florida got edged by South Carolina last week and travels to play a weak Memphis team. Memphis is
coming off a bye though.
Ole Miss started talking trash about Bama then got their butts handed to them last week. Next up - going to Jordan
Hare to take on an improving Auburn team.
Teams in a let down – Boston College played tough in a loss to Florida State. Next up is hosting another bad team (yes Dwink they are bad and it’s not unpatriotic to say so. Let’s hope the government shut down still allows the Cadets to travel)
Georgia played a hell of game in beating LSU in a key SEC matchup. Now they travel to Rocky Top with much less at stake
Texas State scored an upset against Wyoming (that still hurts) now they travel to play a solid Ragin Cajun team. UL Lafayette is coming off a bye.
A double let down situation when Kent State fresh off an upset of Western Michigan hosts Northern Illinois who
just went 2-0 in the Big Ten by defeating Purdue. Beating Purdue is probably a bigger high than trashing a bad
Western Michigan though.
Arizona State is flying high after beating USC and getting Kiffin fired in the process (twice the fun). Now they travel across the country to play Notre Dame in rebound mode.
So – the big question is – who to take for this weeks Mega Bets?
The best situations look to be
Baylor in a revenge mode hosting WVU in a let down. But the spread is a little rich for me – 27.5
Oklahoma State in rebound and revenge mode hosting Kansas State. But I’ve lost 2 Mega Bets on the Cowboys already so no more!
Notre Dame in rebound mode hosting a possible let down in Arizona State. But Mega Betting the Domers is strictly verboten.
So I will go with
Week 6 Mega Bets
Stanford -7.5 vs Washington - The Cardinal have been steamrolling the competition this year. Now the starts are aligned for a good solid win. Not only is this a revenge game for Stanford at home but they are also trying to get some style points against a ranked competitor. Stanford needs this game to move up from their number 5 ranking. Better team at home in a revenge matchup and needing style points. I'll lay the 7
Central Florida -9.5 @ Memphis – More team analytics than situational. Central Florida is in rebound mode and is the superior team. They’ve beaten Penn State in Happy Valley and nearly upset South Carolina in Columbia. The Knights actually jumped out to a 10-0 half time lead before succumbing.
Memphis is playing a freshman quarterback against a tough UCF defense. He'll make a few mistakes that UCF will convert and cruise to an easy win
Denver -7.0 @ Dallas - All the situational signals say take the Boys. Denver is coming off a huge wins at home the last two weeks. Dallas is in a must win at home but I'm stil taking the Broncos. Peytom Manning is tearing up the NFL this year winning by an average 18 points per week. Tony
And here are all the picks for week 6 including spreads, times, networks, records against the spread, Sagarin ratings and much more
| Week 6 Bettors Guide |
Finally, the Sheriff is off to a good start to the year going 2-1 on his Mega Bets
Arizona State -6.0 vs. USC. - The Sun Devils trailed 21-20 in the third quarter and then absolutely blew out Greg Robinson's defense. ASU racked up 612 yards of offense in blowing out the Trojans 62-41. In his first pick of the season the Sheriff got a head coach fired. Fear the Sheriff WIN
Washington -10.0 vs. Arizona. A bit of a nail biter. Washington jumped to an 11-0 lead and then started trading scores with Zona. The Huskies took a 25-13 score into the fourth quarter and then put the game away with a TD with 3:34 left to win 31-13 WIN
Cal @ Oregon. Over 84.0 - The night cap was the only blemish of the weekend. It started out well for the Sheriff as Oregon scored four TDs in the first quarter alone as they jumped to a 27-0 lead. But it takes two teams to score to get the over and Cal just wasn't going to help. Early in the 3rd quarter the Ducks had built an astounding 55-3 lead and then called off the dogs (or is it called off the ducks?). Cal finally got untracked in 2nd half but it was not nearly enough as Oregon dominated 55-16 LOSS
You can bet that the Doofus and Bruce will be huddled around the Sheriff when he announces his GO JUMBO Pac-12 picks
And here are the Sheriff's picks for week 6
UCLA (-6) over Utah. UCLA has two winnable games (Utah and Cal) upcoming before they go on the road and play
Stanford and Oregon back-to-back at the end of this month. It’s critical they take care of business tonight in Utah, and Mora will make sure they are ready to play after a bye last week. UCLA’s best running back – Damien
Thigpen – is supposed to play tonight after recovering from an ACL tear last year.
Cal (+1.5) over Wash State. This is a pivotal game in Cal’s season. If they lose, their record will be
1-4 and Sonny Dyke’s first season could spiral out of control. If they win, it could restore some pride and get the team back on track to maybe get 6 wins and reach a bowl game. Cal has played 3 of its first 4 games against Top 25 teams (two of them Top 5). It will be interesting to see how they measure up against more equal competition. I’m thinking Sonny will have them fired up for this game.
Stanford (-7.5) over Washington. This is the game of the week in the PAC-12 and will be a great measuring stick for the Huskies. Washington is a much improved team, but they are still a notch below Stanford/Oregon. Stanford’s only conference loss last year was to Washington and the Cardinal will want revenge.
Glad we are on the same mind set regarding Stanford!
Remember the GO JUMBO weekend is Oct 26th at the LVH
Arizona State -6.0 vs. USC. - The Sun Devils trailed 21-20 in the third quarter and then absolutely blew out Greg Robinson's defense. ASU racked up 612 yards of offense in blowing out the Trojans 62-41. In his first pick of the season the Sheriff got a head coach fired. Fear the Sheriff WIN
Washington -10.0 vs. Arizona. A bit of a nail biter. Washington jumped to an 11-0 lead and then started trading scores with Zona. The Huskies took a 25-13 score into the fourth quarter and then put the game away with a TD with 3:34 left to win 31-13 WIN
Cal @ Oregon. Over 84.0 - The night cap was the only blemish of the weekend. It started out well for the Sheriff as Oregon scored four TDs in the first quarter alone as they jumped to a 27-0 lead. But it takes two teams to score to get the over and Cal just wasn't going to help. Early in the 3rd quarter the Ducks had built an astounding 55-3 lead and then called off the dogs (or is it called off the ducks?). Cal finally got untracked in 2nd half but it was not nearly enough as Oregon dominated 55-16 LOSS
You can bet that the Doofus and Bruce will be huddled around the Sheriff when he announces his GO JUMBO Pac-12 picks
And here are the Sheriff's picks for week 6
UCLA (-6) over Utah. UCLA has two winnable games (Utah and Cal) upcoming before they go on the road and play
Stanford and Oregon back-to-back at the end of this month. It’s critical they take care of business tonight in Utah, and Mora will make sure they are ready to play after a bye last week. UCLA’s best running back – Damien
Thigpen – is supposed to play tonight after recovering from an ACL tear last year.
Cal (+1.5) over Wash State. This is a pivotal game in Cal’s season. If they lose, their record will be
1-4 and Sonny Dyke’s first season could spiral out of control. If they win, it could restore some pride and get the team back on track to maybe get 6 wins and reach a bowl game. Cal has played 3 of its first 4 games against Top 25 teams (two of them Top 5). It will be interesting to see how they measure up against more equal competition. I’m thinking Sonny will have them fired up for this game.
Stanford (-7.5) over Washington. This is the game of the week in the PAC-12 and will be a great measuring stick for the Huskies. Washington is a much improved team, but they are still a notch below Stanford/Oregon. Stanford’s only conference loss last year was to Washington and the Cardinal will want revenge.
Glad we are on the same mind set regarding Stanford!
Remember the GO JUMBO weekend is Oct 26th at the LVH
