Washington demolished Stanford last week OK – its about time to get the picking straightened out. The revenge angle didn’t work because I gave too many points. The 11 year trend angle was a total wash out. The Trend parlay went 0-3.
Let’s try another angle – the bounce back/flat angle. After a big win teams can have a tendency to come out a bit flat. Conversely a team that was upset or lost a big game can come out fired up the next week.
Teams in let down situation this week are:
Washington -9.5 @ Oregon – Washington is coming off a 44-6 beat down over Stanford. I would look at this one but the Sheriff is on fire and is taking the Huskies. I won’t get in front of that train.
North Carolina -1.5 over Va Tech – The Heels are coming of a huge 37-35 upset of Florida State. But they are only laying 1.5. I’m actually going to take the sky blue but only for a quatloo
Indiana +29.0 @ Ohio State – The Hoosiers got the Brass Spitoon back after residing a decade plus in East Lansing. But I’m not about to lay 29 with Ohio State. I’m getting burned laying a ton of points and the Hoosiers demonstrated they can hang with the Bucknuts last year in last minute loss last year 34-27. I’ll take the Hoosier and the points.
Tennessee +6.5 @ Texas A&M – The Vols were lucky to win last week. Still haven’t heard of the Saxy Lady has calmed down. Tennessee has a maddening habit of starting out slow and then pulling out a miracle at the end. If they start out slow this week A&M might not let them back in the game. The spread is under a TD so I’ll take the Aggies for a quatloo.
And the Let down angle is off to a slow start with:
Clemson -17.0 @ Boston College – Clemson was coming off a huge win over Louisville last week and were laying big points to the Eagles. Glad I passed on this one. Clemson had the cover in the first quarter when they went up 21-3. They cruised to an easy 56-10 win.
Teams in a bounce back scenario:
Michigan State -6.0 vs BYU – I always pick Sparty but I’m never Mega Betting them again after last year’s debacle in Lincoln.
Stanford -7.5 vs Washington State – Last year this would have been an easy pick but I’m not so sure about Stanford this year. The defense is not up to their usual standards and the passing game is non existant. It’s McCaffery or nothing for the Cardinal. With a 7.5 spread this game is ripe for a Washington State back door cover. I’ll pick Stanford but no quatloos.
Let’s try another angle – the bounce back/flat angle. After a big win teams can have a tendency to come out a bit flat. Conversely a team that was upset or lost a big game can come out fired up the next week.
Teams in let down situation this week are:
Washington -9.5 @ Oregon – Washington is coming off a 44-6 beat down over Stanford. I would look at this one but the Sheriff is on fire and is taking the Huskies. I won’t get in front of that train.
North Carolina -1.5 over Va Tech – The Heels are coming of a huge 37-35 upset of Florida State. But they are only laying 1.5. I’m actually going to take the sky blue but only for a quatloo
Indiana +29.0 @ Ohio State – The Hoosiers got the Brass Spitoon back after residing a decade plus in East Lansing. But I’m not about to lay 29 with Ohio State. I’m getting burned laying a ton of points and the Hoosiers demonstrated they can hang with the Bucknuts last year in last minute loss last year 34-27. I’ll take the Hoosier and the points.
Tennessee +6.5 @ Texas A&M – The Vols were lucky to win last week. Still haven’t heard of the Saxy Lady has calmed down. Tennessee has a maddening habit of starting out slow and then pulling out a miracle at the end. If they start out slow this week A&M might not let them back in the game. The spread is under a TD so I’ll take the Aggies for a quatloo.
And the Let down angle is off to a slow start with:
Clemson -17.0 @ Boston College – Clemson was coming off a huge win over Louisville last week and were laying big points to the Eagles. Glad I passed on this one. Clemson had the cover in the first quarter when they went up 21-3. They cruised to an easy 56-10 win.
Teams in a bounce back scenario:
Michigan State -6.0 vs BYU – I always pick Sparty but I’m never Mega Betting them again after last year’s debacle in Lincoln.
Stanford -7.5 vs Washington State – Last year this would have been an easy pick but I’m not so sure about Stanford this year. The defense is not up to their usual standards and the passing game is non existant. It’s McCaffery or nothing for the Cardinal. With a 7.5 spread this game is ripe for a Washington State back door cover. I’ll pick Stanford but no quatloos.
FSU looks to bounce back after last week's upset Louisville – bye. Have to keep an eye on the Cardinals next week
FSU +3.0 @ Miami (FL) – FSU is coming off a tough loss to UNC. I would lean heavily on the ‘Noles here. They are getting points against a Canes team that played even with Ga Tech except for a couple of scoop sixes. The problem in the weather. Hurricane Matthew is blowing through South Florida as we speak. Not sure what anyones mind set is going to be. I’ll lay a quatloo on FSU but no more.
Georgia -7.0 @ South Carolina – This one had potential. South Carolina’s offense is inept while Georgia’s is sporadic. But the game has been postponed due to the weather.
San Diego State -15.0 vs UNLV – The Spaztecs were upset by South Alabama 42-24. The Jaguars are a strange team. They aren’t very good but have two huge upsets over Mississippi State and SDSU. If it weren’t the big spread I would do a Mega Bet here. I’ll do a mini Mega on San Diego State over a “better than last year” but still pretty bad UNLV
Overall, nothing really jumps out using the Bounceback/Flat angle.
There is only one real Revenge angle and it requires dropping a ton of points.
Boise State -17.5 @ New Mexico – Last year the Lobos downed Boise State 31-24. But as I learned last week – BSU struggles to cover big spreads. I’ll pass.
So with those angles out I’ll have to go with using matchup analysis. Not something that is going to well the last three weeks. Didn’t have much time this week to check out the teams (Which may be a good thing) so I’ll just go with two Mega Bets.
Maryland -1.0 @ Penn State – It took Penn State overtime to beat Minnesota last week. He run defense is non existent. Two Goofer ran for over 100 yards last week. Maryland’s offense is much better than Minnesota as the blew out Purdue last week 50-7. The prediction of James Franklins coaching death spiral was off a week. It starts now.
FSU +3.0 @ Miami (FL) – FSU is coming off a tough loss to UNC. I would lean heavily on the ‘Noles here. They are getting points against a Canes team that played even with Ga Tech except for a couple of scoop sixes. The problem in the weather. Hurricane Matthew is blowing through South Florida as we speak. Not sure what anyones mind set is going to be. I’ll lay a quatloo on FSU but no more.
Georgia -7.0 @ South Carolina – This one had potential. South Carolina’s offense is inept while Georgia’s is sporadic. But the game has been postponed due to the weather.
San Diego State -15.0 vs UNLV – The Spaztecs were upset by South Alabama 42-24. The Jaguars are a strange team. They aren’t very good but have two huge upsets over Mississippi State and SDSU. If it weren’t the big spread I would do a Mega Bet here. I’ll do a mini Mega on San Diego State over a “better than last year” but still pretty bad UNLV
Overall, nothing really jumps out using the Bounceback/Flat angle.
There is only one real Revenge angle and it requires dropping a ton of points.
Boise State -17.5 @ New Mexico – Last year the Lobos downed Boise State 31-24. But as I learned last week – BSU struggles to cover big spreads. I’ll pass.
So with those angles out I’ll have to go with using matchup analysis. Not something that is going to well the last three weeks. Didn’t have much time this week to check out the teams (Which may be a good thing) so I’ll just go with two Mega Bets.
Maryland -1.0 @ Penn State – It took Penn State overtime to beat Minnesota last week. He run defense is non existent. Two Goofer ran for over 100 yards last week. Maryland’s offense is much better than Minnesota as the blew out Purdue last week 50-7. The prediction of James Franklins coaching death spiral was off a week. It starts now.
Time for San Diego to pull one out for a change San Diego +4.0 @ Oakland – These teams are pretty evenly matched. The only difference is in late game situations. Oakland has pulled out last minute wins over the saints, Titans and Ravens while San Diego has melted down versus Chiefs, Colts and Saints. It reverses this week with the Bolts eking out the last minute win.
The Sheriff has been on a tear going 3-0 last week and 5-1 over the last two weeks. This week he likes:
USC (-4.5) over Colorado. Colorado is sitting at 4-1 and has sole possession of first place in the PAC-12 South, but beating up on Oregon and Oregon State is a far cry from facing the 5-stars that the Boys of Troy will put on the field. The Sheriff’s heart will be with the Buffs, but his money is on the Condoms.
Utah (-10) over Arizona. Utah lost a heartbreaker to Cal last week and will be looking to take out its frustration on a mediocre Wildcat team. The Utes will win big at home.
Washington (-9) over Oregon. This is a big number to cover and Autzen is a tough place to play, but after watching the pounding the Huskies gave Stanford last week, there can be no doubt that Washington is for real. The Huskies haven’t beaten the Ducks in 12 years – Chris Petersen will use that as motivation to keep his team sharp and ready to play.
And here are all the games, spread, picks and much much more
The Sheriff has been on a tear going 3-0 last week and 5-1 over the last two weeks. This week he likes:
USC (-4.5) over Colorado. Colorado is sitting at 4-1 and has sole possession of first place in the PAC-12 South, but beating up on Oregon and Oregon State is a far cry from facing the 5-stars that the Boys of Troy will put on the field. The Sheriff’s heart will be with the Buffs, but his money is on the Condoms.
Utah (-10) over Arizona. Utah lost a heartbreaker to Cal last week and will be looking to take out its frustration on a mediocre Wildcat team. The Utes will win big at home.
Washington (-9) over Oregon. This is a big number to cover and Autzen is a tough place to play, but after watching the pounding the Huskies gave Stanford last week, there can be no doubt that Washington is for real. The Huskies haven’t beaten the Ducks in 12 years – Chris Petersen will use that as motivation to keep his team sharp and ready to play.
And here are all the games, spread, picks and much much more
| Week 6 2016 Bettors Guide |
