Navy consistently trashed those Fly Boys No doubt, I had a rough week last week.
So this week I’m going to change strategy and follow a couple angles that have paid off in the past. Those are:
First - the long term trend. Since I’ve been keeping a database over the last 11 years, some teams just flat out cover in certain matchups. A bunch of those matchups are occurring this week. Teams that have beaten their opponents 8 or more times over the last 11 years are:
Cincinnati 8-3 vs South Florida
Navy 9-2 over Air Force
Arizona State 8-3 vs USC
Washington State 8-3 over Oregon
Tennessee 8-3 vs Georgia
Rather than Mega Bet these games I’ll do an 11 year trend parlay with
Navy +7.5 @ Air Force
Arizona State +10.5 @ USC
Washington State +1.5 vs Oregon
Last week I missed the revenge factor when I took East Carolina to beat Va Tech. I relied on the trend but revenge is a bigger factor. There are four major revenge games this week. One already occurred on Thursday when Houston covered a 27.5 point spread by downing UConn 42-14
I’ll Mega Bet the other three with:
So this week I’m going to change strategy and follow a couple angles that have paid off in the past. Those are:
First - the long term trend. Since I’ve been keeping a database over the last 11 years, some teams just flat out cover in certain matchups. A bunch of those matchups are occurring this week. Teams that have beaten their opponents 8 or more times over the last 11 years are:
Cincinnati 8-3 vs South Florida
Navy 9-2 over Air Force
Arizona State 8-3 vs USC
Washington State 8-3 over Oregon
Tennessee 8-3 vs Georgia
Rather than Mega Bet these games I’ll do an 11 year trend parlay with
Navy +7.5 @ Air Force
Arizona State +10.5 @ USC
Washington State +1.5 vs Oregon
Last week I missed the revenge factor when I took East Carolina to beat Va Tech. I relied on the trend but revenge is a bigger factor. There are four major revenge games this week. One already occurred on Thursday when Houston covered a 27.5 point spread by downing UConn 42-14
I’ll Mega Bet the other three with:
Memphis trounced Ole Miss last year Mississippi -14.5 vs Memphis – Memphis was good last year with Paxton Lynch under center. But he is off playing on Sundays in Mile High Stadium. His replacement Riley Ferguson has looked fantastic with 11 TDs and just 2 picks. That is, until you look at the opponents – Southeast Missouri State, Kansas and Bowling Green.
Ole Miss is a huge step up from those dregs of college football. The Rebs are just 2-2 with two wild losses to Bama and Florida State. They can’t afford another loss. Add in that they were embarrassed by the Tigers last year 37-24 and you can count on Ole Miss coming out fired up in front of the home crowd
Boise State -20.0 vs Utah State – Utah State used to be one of the better teams in the Mountain West. But over the last few years they have drifted back towards the middle of the pack.
Boise State menahwile has regained its status as among the best of the Group of Five teams. If it weren’t for Houston, the talk would be about the broncos 2-0 record in the PAC 12 with wins over Oregon State (Ok that doesn’t mean much) and Washington State.
Utah State crushed Boise last year 52-26. The Broncos are going to want to get that nasty taste out of their mouths and return the favor on the smurf turf.
Nebraska -20.0 vs Illinois – Nebraska can put up the points behind arguably the best QB in the Big 10 – Tommy Armstrong. Their offense is as balanced as they come averaging 242 yards per game on the ground and 243 through the air.
Last year, a really bad Illini team beat Nebraska 14-13. The Huskers haven’t forgotten. Illinois may be better this year and they are coming off a bye after losing to a good Western Michigan team. But Nebraska is even better than the Broncos and will avenge that embarrassment in front of a fired up home crowd.
I’m going to go with a bunch Mini Mega Bets too with
Minnesota +3.0 @ Penn State – Penn State can’t move the chains ranking 127th in third down conversions. The Gophers are 5th in 3rd down defense.
And the Nits banged up defense is getting gashed by the run. They’ve allowed over 325 yards rushing twice this season.
The Gophers will win outright and James Franklin career goes into a death spiral
Ole Miss is a huge step up from those dregs of college football. The Rebs are just 2-2 with two wild losses to Bama and Florida State. They can’t afford another loss. Add in that they were embarrassed by the Tigers last year 37-24 and you can count on Ole Miss coming out fired up in front of the home crowd
Boise State -20.0 vs Utah State – Utah State used to be one of the better teams in the Mountain West. But over the last few years they have drifted back towards the middle of the pack.
Boise State menahwile has regained its status as among the best of the Group of Five teams. If it weren’t for Houston, the talk would be about the broncos 2-0 record in the PAC 12 with wins over Oregon State (Ok that doesn’t mean much) and Washington State.
Utah State crushed Boise last year 52-26. The Broncos are going to want to get that nasty taste out of their mouths and return the favor on the smurf turf.
Nebraska -20.0 vs Illinois – Nebraska can put up the points behind arguably the best QB in the Big 10 – Tommy Armstrong. Their offense is as balanced as they come averaging 242 yards per game on the ground and 243 through the air.
Last year, a really bad Illini team beat Nebraska 14-13. The Huskers haven’t forgotten. Illinois may be better this year and they are coming off a bye after losing to a good Western Michigan team. But Nebraska is even better than the Broncos and will avenge that embarrassment in front of a fired up home crowd.
I’m going to go with a bunch Mini Mega Bets too with
Minnesota +3.0 @ Penn State – Penn State can’t move the chains ranking 127th in third down conversions. The Gophers are 5th in 3rd down defense.
And the Nits banged up defense is getting gashed by the run. They’ve allowed over 325 yards rushing twice this season.
The Gophers will win outright and James Franklin career goes into a death spiral
Northern Illinois has been a big flop this year Ball State -4.0 vs Northern Illinois – Northern Illinois is a disaster this year with bad losses to Wyoming and Western Illinois. MAC teams are exacting their revenge after years of getting pummelled by the Huskies.
The spread would say that these teams are pretty even on a neutral field. They are not. The Cardinals will cruise.
Southern Miss -24.5 vs Rice – Southern Miss has been on fire the last couple of years. Rice is arguably worse than Northern Illinois.
The Eagles blasted the Owls last year 65-10. The score should be about the same this year.
Ohio -2.0 vs Miami (OH) - Ohio used to be known for having a good MAC defense. This year it’s the offense carrying the load averaging 37 points per game.
Miami (OH) is 0-4 and just lost to rival Cincinnati. They will be flat and get blown out.
Florida -10.0 @ Vanderbilt – Going with another angle here, the bounce back angle. After 11 straight wins over Tennessee, the Gators fell 38-28. To make it worse for Florida fans, the Gators led 21-0 before letting up 38 straight points.
That won’t happen again. Florida will jump to an early lead and then the SEC's leading defense will prevent the come back.
The spread would say that these teams are pretty even on a neutral field. They are not. The Cardinals will cruise.
Southern Miss -24.5 vs Rice – Southern Miss has been on fire the last couple of years. Rice is arguably worse than Northern Illinois.
The Eagles blasted the Owls last year 65-10. The score should be about the same this year.
Ohio -2.0 vs Miami (OH) - Ohio used to be known for having a good MAC defense. This year it’s the offense carrying the load averaging 37 points per game.
Miami (OH) is 0-4 and just lost to rival Cincinnati. They will be flat and get blown out.
Florida -10.0 @ Vanderbilt – Going with another angle here, the bounce back angle. After 11 straight wins over Tennessee, the Gators fell 38-28. To make it worse for Florida fans, the Gators led 21-0 before letting up 38 straight points.
That won’t happen again. Florida will jump to an early lead and then the SEC's leading defense will prevent the come back.
Carson Palmer is not off to the best start Los Angeles +8.0 @ Arizona - Carson Palmer seems a little off this year. He threw picks on 4 straight drives versus Buffalo.
The Rams are terrible on offense but the defense is decent
In a low scoring game I'll take the dog getting more than a TD
The Sheriff weighed in with
Washington State (+2) over Oregon. The Sheriff doesn’t know what unis The Ducks will be wearing in Pullman on Saturday, but they can’t be worse than what they wore against Colorado last week.
(http://www.ralphiereport.com/colorado-buffaloes-football/2016/9/22/13016436/oregon-uniforms-like-actual-ducks-vs-colorado)
Wazzu has been a disappointing 1-2 so far but is coming off a bye week and is still 0-0 in conference play with all its goals still obtainable. The Ducks, meanwhile, are free-falling and will probably be the next major program to fire its head coach. Cougs will win big.
Cal (-1.5) over Utah. Cal is not as bad as its 2-2 record would indicate. The Bears were beating Arizona State for most the game last Saturday and only lost because of two late picks thrown by Davis Webb. More importantly, Cal has found a decent running game to complement its passing attack, and the defense has shown signs it actually might be OK (not great, of course, but the bar is set pretty low when discussing the Cal Bears and their defense). Utah, on the other hand, is not as good as its 4-0 record would suggest: the Utes were lucky to escape with a win against USC. The Sheriff was going to predict an upset in Strawberry Canyon, but the Vegas oddsmakers made his Bears the favorites so he will have to lay the 1.5
USC (-10) over Arizona State. The Sheriff enjoyed opening up the Sunday paper to see the Condoms in sole possession of last place in the PAC-12 South (0-2 in conference, 1-3 overall). USC was beating Utah 24-10 in the 3rd quarter before a couple of late fumbles let the Utes back in the game. More importantly, the Condoms found a QB in young Sam Darnold who went 18-26 for 253 yards through the air and an additional 44 yards on the ground. Look for the Boys of Troy to take out their frustrations on an overrated Sun Devils team and win big.
And for all this weeks games spreads picks and much much more her is the Week 5 Bettor Guide
The Rams are terrible on offense but the defense is decent
In a low scoring game I'll take the dog getting more than a TD
The Sheriff weighed in with
Washington State (+2) over Oregon. The Sheriff doesn’t know what unis The Ducks will be wearing in Pullman on Saturday, but they can’t be worse than what they wore against Colorado last week.
(http://www.ralphiereport.com/colorado-buffaloes-football/2016/9/22/13016436/oregon-uniforms-like-actual-ducks-vs-colorado)
Wazzu has been a disappointing 1-2 so far but is coming off a bye week and is still 0-0 in conference play with all its goals still obtainable. The Ducks, meanwhile, are free-falling and will probably be the next major program to fire its head coach. Cougs will win big.
Cal (-1.5) over Utah. Cal is not as bad as its 2-2 record would indicate. The Bears were beating Arizona State for most the game last Saturday and only lost because of two late picks thrown by Davis Webb. More importantly, Cal has found a decent running game to complement its passing attack, and the defense has shown signs it actually might be OK (not great, of course, but the bar is set pretty low when discussing the Cal Bears and their defense). Utah, on the other hand, is not as good as its 4-0 record would suggest: the Utes were lucky to escape with a win against USC. The Sheriff was going to predict an upset in Strawberry Canyon, but the Vegas oddsmakers made his Bears the favorites so he will have to lay the 1.5
USC (-10) over Arizona State. The Sheriff enjoyed opening up the Sunday paper to see the Condoms in sole possession of last place in the PAC-12 South (0-2 in conference, 1-3 overall). USC was beating Utah 24-10 in the 3rd quarter before a couple of late fumbles let the Utes back in the game. More importantly, the Condoms found a QB in young Sam Darnold who went 18-26 for 253 yards through the air and an additional 44 yards on the ground. Look for the Boys of Troy to take out their frustrations on an overrated Sun Devils team and win big.
And for all this weeks games spreads picks and much much more her is the Week 5 Bettor Guide
| 2016 Week 5 Bettors Guide |
Remember the 2016 GO JUMBO triip is Nov 5th at the Westgate Resort
