Mom left me with some words of encouragement I was talking with the Mother of all Doofusses earlier this week. About halfway through a conversation on whether Hurricane Flo would affect her, her health and other mother/son topics she deadpanned "Your picks haven't been too good this year"
Ouch, called out by Mom. That hurt.
She's right of course. Moms always are. Got to get the picks going.
Actually the overall picks in number are OK. It's the bet allocation. The bigger the wager so far this year, the worse the outcome.
The quatloo bets are doing really well at 15-8. The Mini Megas are a meh 5-6-1. It's the Mega Bets that are a dead stop at 0-7-1.
Woulda coulda shoulda, Mom didn't want to hear the excuses. Don't stand in the middle of the room and cry. Look! Look for the good picks.
yes Ma'am
Ouch, called out by Mom. That hurt.
She's right of course. Moms always are. Got to get the picks going.
Actually the overall picks in number are OK. It's the bet allocation. The bigger the wager so far this year, the worse the outcome.
The quatloo bets are doing really well at 15-8. The Mini Megas are a meh 5-6-1. It's the Mega Bets that are a dead stop at 0-7-1.
Woulda coulda shoulda, Mom didn't want to hear the excuses. Don't stand in the middle of the room and cry. Look! Look for the good picks.
yes Ma'am
Penn State rejoices in running up the score Since the quatloo bets are doing so well I'll start with those
Temple -6.5 vs Tulsa – Temple got their act together in upsetting Maryland last week. They limited Maryland to 195 yards of total offense last week. Tulsa passing attack is anemic. Temple can stop one dimensional teams. The Owls love Thursday games as they are 6-1 ATS.
Central Florida -14.0 vs Florida Atlantic – The Golden Knights don’t miss Scott Frost one bit. They just reloaded behind star QB Milton McKenzie. UCF has the nation’s longest win streak at 15, scoring 30 or more in each game. Make it 16 straight.
Penn State -28.0 @ Illinois – There are jerkweed teams that like to run up the score. Penn State is one. They will keep the starters in late and go for style points with the Committee.
Temple -6.5 vs Tulsa – Temple got their act together in upsetting Maryland last week. They limited Maryland to 195 yards of total offense last week. Tulsa passing attack is anemic. Temple can stop one dimensional teams. The Owls love Thursday games as they are 6-1 ATS.
Central Florida -14.0 vs Florida Atlantic – The Golden Knights don’t miss Scott Frost one bit. They just reloaded behind star QB Milton McKenzie. UCF has the nation’s longest win streak at 15, scoring 30 or more in each game. Make it 16 straight.
Penn State -28.0 @ Illinois – There are jerkweed teams that like to run up the score. Penn State is one. They will keep the starters in late and go for style points with the Committee.
Paul Johnson maybe thinking this is his final year at Bobby Dodd Clemson -16.5 @ Georgia Tech – Ga Tech has always been a flaky team to bet on. One week they are beating Va Tech, the next they lose to Pitt. Clemson’s DL will stuff the Bees triple option in what is shaping up to be Paul Johnson’s last year. Sorry Sax Man and Mrs Bruce.
Pittsburgh -3.0 @ North Carolina – Pitt is another flaky team but UNC is still down 10 players and is a bottom dwelling team.
Virginia -4.5 vs Louisville – Louisville is struggling this year, needing to comeback to beat a bad Western Kentucky squad. The offense is off and the defense leaky. Virginia is solid, though not spectacular in all phases.
Southern Miss -14.0 vs Rice – Rice lost by 18 to Houston and 14 to Hawaii. Southern Miss gets its starting QB back after a two game suspension. They can match those scores.
Troy -4.5 @ UL Monroe – Troy just beat the Cornshuckers in Lincoln while UL Monroe just bombed by Texas A&M. The Warhawks are 108th in scoring offense and 102nd in scoring defense. Not a good combo.
And maybe these picks will get the Mini Megas out of Flippyesque territory.
Pittsburgh -3.0 @ North Carolina – Pitt is another flaky team but UNC is still down 10 players and is a bottom dwelling team.
Virginia -4.5 vs Louisville – Louisville is struggling this year, needing to comeback to beat a bad Western Kentucky squad. The offense is off and the defense leaky. Virginia is solid, though not spectacular in all phases.
Southern Miss -14.0 vs Rice – Rice lost by 18 to Houston and 14 to Hawaii. Southern Miss gets its starting QB back after a two game suspension. They can match those scores.
Troy -4.5 @ UL Monroe – Troy just beat the Cornshuckers in Lincoln while UL Monroe just bombed by Texas A&M. The Warhawks are 108th in scoring offense and 102nd in scoring defense. Not a good combo.
And maybe these picks will get the Mini Megas out of Flippyesque territory.
The Hokie defense is for real again Georgia -14.5 @ Missouri – After watching Georgia dismantle South Carolina and Missouri struggle to keep Purdue out of the end zone, I’m in. Jake Fromm leads the nation in completion percentage (80%). He will tee off on a Mizzou secondary that just gave up 572 yards and 10 yards per throw to Purdue.
Missouri has won nine straight regular games. The last loss? To Georgia last year 53-28. Expect a similar score this year.
Georgia has covered 9 straight ATS versus Div 1A opponents while Mizzou is 2-6 ATS at home against teams with a winning record.
Virginia Tech -28.0 @ Old Dominion – Old Dominion was blasted by upstart Liberty 52-10 and lost last week to UNC Charlotte. The Monarchs are 1-7-1 ATS at home. This is a bad team converting only 28% on third down.
Va Tech’s defense is its normal stout self. They have let up only 128 yards rushing total YTD. The offense is humming too and the Hokies have had two weeks to heal and prepare after an unscheduled bye week. Va Tech is 7-1 ATS versus non ACC foes.
Cincinnati -8.0 vs Ohio – The BearCats defense is rocking. They are 11th in pass defense, 12th in rush defense and third overall.
Ohio has disappointed. The defense is the main problem. It’s dead last against the pass. They couldn’t stop Virginia and barely beat 1AA Howard. BearCat Freshman QB Desmond Ridder will light up the Bobcat secondary.
Cincinnati has already beaten a similar MAC team in Miami (OH) 21-0. This score will be similar.
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS outside the American Conference while 1-4 ATS over their last 5.
Missouri has won nine straight regular games. The last loss? To Georgia last year 53-28. Expect a similar score this year.
Georgia has covered 9 straight ATS versus Div 1A opponents while Mizzou is 2-6 ATS at home against teams with a winning record.
Virginia Tech -28.0 @ Old Dominion – Old Dominion was blasted by upstart Liberty 52-10 and lost last week to UNC Charlotte. The Monarchs are 1-7-1 ATS at home. This is a bad team converting only 28% on third down.
Va Tech’s defense is its normal stout self. They have let up only 128 yards rushing total YTD. The offense is humming too and the Hokies have had two weeks to heal and prepare after an unscheduled bye week. Va Tech is 7-1 ATS versus non ACC foes.
Cincinnati -8.0 vs Ohio – The BearCats defense is rocking. They are 11th in pass defense, 12th in rush defense and third overall.
Ohio has disappointed. The defense is the main problem. It’s dead last against the pass. They couldn’t stop Virginia and barely beat 1AA Howard. BearCat Freshman QB Desmond Ridder will light up the Bobcat secondary.
Cincinnati has already beaten a similar MAC team in Miami (OH) 21-0. This score will be similar.
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS outside the American Conference while 1-4 ATS over their last 5.
Until further notice it's Becky Badger Wisconsin -3.0 @ Iowa - After the Wisconsin loss to BYU, Mike said they are now Becky Badger, not Bucky. Can't say I disagree. BYU out Wisconsined Wisconsin.
Iowa is similar to both teams but Wisconsin is still the original and best. Don't let one game fool you. Jonathon Taylor is still a beast and the OL is chock full of NFL talent.
Becky bounces back and covers in a key BIG West game
Going against the trends here. Iowa is 5-0 ATS while Wiscy is 1-4 ATS
North Texas -13.0 @ Liberty – North Texas is the Cinderella story so far in the 2018 season. they are 3-0 with wins over SMU and a stunner over Arkansas Liberty got thumped by Army before taking the week off due to Flo.
QB Mason Fine is leading the way, completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 1,143 yards with eight touchdowns against just one interception.Green Machine is legit.
Liberty got thumped by Army before taking the week off due to Flo. It's there first year in Div 1A and looks to be a long one.
North Texas is 5-2 ATS on the road and 9-3 ATS outside the CUSA. Liberty is too new to have any meaningful trends.
Cinderella takes down the new girl on the block.
And as you can see, one thing I have decided to do this year is give the points. I got tired of getting 21 only to be down 35-3 at the half.
Iowa is similar to both teams but Wisconsin is still the original and best. Don't let one game fool you. Jonathon Taylor is still a beast and the OL is chock full of NFL talent.
Becky bounces back and covers in a key BIG West game
Going against the trends here. Iowa is 5-0 ATS while Wiscy is 1-4 ATS
North Texas -13.0 @ Liberty – North Texas is the Cinderella story so far in the 2018 season. they are 3-0 with wins over SMU and a stunner over Arkansas Liberty got thumped by Army before taking the week off due to Flo.
QB Mason Fine is leading the way, completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 1,143 yards with eight touchdowns against just one interception.Green Machine is legit.
Liberty got thumped by Army before taking the week off due to Flo. It's there first year in Div 1A and looks to be a long one.
North Texas is 5-2 ATS on the road and 9-3 ATS outside the CUSA. Liberty is too new to have any meaningful trends.
Cinderella takes down the new girl on the block.
And as you can see, one thing I have decided to do this year is give the points. I got tired of getting 21 only to be down 35-3 at the half.
the Tree defense has been fantastic For this weeks Mega Bets I'll go with:
Stanford -2.0 @ Oregon - It's game Day in Eugene, the biggest game of the day!
It's been Cupcake City for the Ducks having beaten Bowling Green, Portland State, and San Jose State. Yippeee. They also failed to cover huge spreads in all three.
Maybe the Ducks were looking ahead last week as the win over San Jose State was hardly inspiring. They gave up 22 points after Washington State shut out the bad Spartans. They were actually outscored 16-14 in the second half.
Now they have a huge step up in weight class. Stanford stoned two quality programs in USC and San Diego State giving up a combined 13 points. Teams have gone all out to stop RB Bryce Love which has allowed QB KJ Costello to find WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 5 TDs so far this year. they will have a field day against the Ducks 78th ranked pass defense (keep in mind who they have played too in that ranking)
The old adage is take ranked teams at home getting the points but I guessing that Oregon is a fraud.
Oregon is 8-14-1 ATS at home while the Tree is 5-1 ATS overall and 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.
Stanford -2.0 @ Oregon - It's game Day in Eugene, the biggest game of the day!
It's been Cupcake City for the Ducks having beaten Bowling Green, Portland State, and San Jose State. Yippeee. They also failed to cover huge spreads in all three.
Maybe the Ducks were looking ahead last week as the win over San Jose State was hardly inspiring. They gave up 22 points after Washington State shut out the bad Spartans. They were actually outscored 16-14 in the second half.
Now they have a huge step up in weight class. Stanford stoned two quality programs in USC and San Diego State giving up a combined 13 points. Teams have gone all out to stop RB Bryce Love which has allowed QB KJ Costello to find WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 5 TDs so far this year. they will have a field day against the Ducks 78th ranked pass defense (keep in mind who they have played too in that ranking)
The old adage is take ranked teams at home getting the points but I guessing that Oregon is a fraud.
Oregon is 8-14-1 ATS at home while the Tree is 5-1 ATS overall and 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.
LeSean McCoy is playing with a craked rib In the Pros I'll go with:
Indianapolis +6.5 @ Philadelphia - I know - Wentz is back. But he will likely be rusty and is lacking a stellar WR corp. Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallce are out.
The Eagles secondary is suspect too. Matt Ryan torched him week one until the Falcons got to the goal line. Ryan Fitzpatrick did the same but didn't stop inside the red zone. Andrew Luck is as good as those two and covers big spreads.
I'm in for a quatloo.
Minnesota -16.0 vs Buffalo - Granted its a big spread but there have been 7 games with spreads of 16 or more. The favored team has covered all seven.
Buffalo is probably the only team worse than the Lions, though Arizona has an argument. The Bills can't pass protect and their only play maker LeSean McCoy is playing with a cracked rib.
Minnesota DL will torture the inaccurate Josh Allen. They are fired up after blowing the win over Green Bay.
Make it a Mini Mega.
San Francisco +7.0 @ Kansas City - Fantasy football can cause poor bets. Mahomes, Kelce, Hunt and Hill are killing it in PPR leagues. What doesn't show is the porous Chief defense.
The Niners get LB Reuben Foster back from suspension. He will limit Kelce (one of my players too, dag nab it) and Garappolo will keep the pace with Mahomes.
Make it another Mini Mega
LA Chargers +7.0 vs LA Rams - The Rams have looked like world beaters. But their two wins have been against a below average team (Oakland) and a really bad team (Arizona).
The Rams have a stout defense but are a bit weak at the LB level. Melvin Gordon should have a good day.
Phil Rivers loves to keep games close. He's 13-5 ATS when getting 6.5 points or more.
The Rams will be looking ahead to next week against the Vikings as the Chargers will hang around
Make it for a quatloo.
Indianapolis +6.5 @ Philadelphia - I know - Wentz is back. But he will likely be rusty and is lacking a stellar WR corp. Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallce are out.
The Eagles secondary is suspect too. Matt Ryan torched him week one until the Falcons got to the goal line. Ryan Fitzpatrick did the same but didn't stop inside the red zone. Andrew Luck is as good as those two and covers big spreads.
I'm in for a quatloo.
Minnesota -16.0 vs Buffalo - Granted its a big spread but there have been 7 games with spreads of 16 or more. The favored team has covered all seven.
Buffalo is probably the only team worse than the Lions, though Arizona has an argument. The Bills can't pass protect and their only play maker LeSean McCoy is playing with a cracked rib.
Minnesota DL will torture the inaccurate Josh Allen. They are fired up after blowing the win over Green Bay.
Make it a Mini Mega.
San Francisco +7.0 @ Kansas City - Fantasy football can cause poor bets. Mahomes, Kelce, Hunt and Hill are killing it in PPR leagues. What doesn't show is the porous Chief defense.
The Niners get LB Reuben Foster back from suspension. He will limit Kelce (one of my players too, dag nab it) and Garappolo will keep the pace with Mahomes.
Make it another Mini Mega
LA Chargers +7.0 vs LA Rams - The Rams have looked like world beaters. But their two wins have been against a below average team (Oakland) and a really bad team (Arizona).
The Rams have a stout defense but are a bit weak at the LB level. Melvin Gordon should have a good day.
Phil Rivers loves to keep games close. He's 13-5 ATS when getting 6.5 points or more.
The Rams will be looking ahead to next week against the Vikings as the Chargers will hang around
Make it for a quatloo.
Whatever Ryan is having - I'll take some Chicago -5.5 @ Arizona - Arizona may not be the worst team in the league but they are in the team picture. The offense is so bad that, last week, they didn't cross midfield until the penultimate play of the game.
Granted that was against the Rams defense but the Bears are every bit as good.
The defense is equally anemic with CB Patrick Peterson the only quality player. Mitch Trubisky is shaky but he should have success against this secondary.
Put me down for a Mega Bet
Tampa Bay +1.5 vs Pittsburgh - Ryan Fitzpatrick is the GOAT. Well, maybe not but he sure has played like it the first couple of weeks. He's gone off for over 400 yards in each game so far and the trend should continue.
For Pittsburgh, LeVeon Bell is out and Antonio Brown is rebelling. More importantly is how the defense misses Ryan Shazier. Since losing him last season they have covered the spread only once.
No way should Pittsburgh be favored in thei game, on the road no less. And it's Monday Night Football. The Bucs will be even more pumped
Make it the third and final Mega Bet.
Granted that was against the Rams defense but the Bears are every bit as good.
The defense is equally anemic with CB Patrick Peterson the only quality player. Mitch Trubisky is shaky but he should have success against this secondary.
Put me down for a Mega Bet
Tampa Bay +1.5 vs Pittsburgh - Ryan Fitzpatrick is the GOAT. Well, maybe not but he sure has played like it the first couple of weeks. He's gone off for over 400 yards in each game so far and the trend should continue.
For Pittsburgh, LeVeon Bell is out and Antonio Brown is rebelling. More importantly is how the defense misses Ryan Shazier. Since losing him last season they have covered the spread only once.
No way should Pittsburgh be favored in thei game, on the road no less. And it's Monday Night Football. The Bucs will be even more pumped
Make it the third and final Mega Bet.
David Blough was fantastic vs Mizzou The Doofus is not the only one struggling. The Sheriff went 0-3 last week but is undaunted, going with:
USC (-3.5) vs Washington State - This is a revenge game for the USC as it lost to Wazzu on a Friday night in Pullman last year in a game that almost derailed its season. Wazzu is good enough to win this game, but the Sheriff is hoping to bring more bad luck to the Condoms by betting on them two weeks in a row.
Boston College/Purdue (UNDER 65.5) - As tempted as he is to take his beloved Boilers and the points, the Sheriff is going to play it safe and take the UNDER (this number seems high for a team as offensively challenged as Purdue).
Doofus - Purdue QB David Blough looked like the second coming of Drew Brees last week. Of course, that's because I picked Mizzou.
Oregon State (+6.5) vs Arizona* - Khalil Tate and the Arizona Wildcats have shown the Sheriff absolutely NOTHING so far this season except that they may be the worst team in the PAC-12 South (*). He will take the Beavs and the points.
(*) The Sheriff picked Arizona to win the PAC-12 South before the season began. Maybe he picked the wrong Arizona school??
USC (-3.5) vs Washington State - This is a revenge game for the USC as it lost to Wazzu on a Friday night in Pullman last year in a game that almost derailed its season. Wazzu is good enough to win this game, but the Sheriff is hoping to bring more bad luck to the Condoms by betting on them two weeks in a row.
Boston College/Purdue (UNDER 65.5) - As tempted as he is to take his beloved Boilers and the points, the Sheriff is going to play it safe and take the UNDER (this number seems high for a team as offensively challenged as Purdue).
Doofus - Purdue QB David Blough looked like the second coming of Drew Brees last week. Of course, that's because I picked Mizzou.
Oregon State (+6.5) vs Arizona* - Khalil Tate and the Arizona Wildcats have shown the Sheriff absolutely NOTHING so far this season except that they may be the worst team in the PAC-12 South (*). He will take the Beavs and the points.
(*) The Sheriff picked Arizona to win the PAC-12 South before the season began. Maybe he picked the wrong Arizona school??
And for all the games, spreads, times, picks and much much more here is the Week 4 Bettors Guide
| week_4_predictions.xlsx |
Remember, the 2018 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 3rd at the Westgate SuperBook
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