Week 21 Rating the Coaching Hires

Some picks are just disasters wating to happen

The NFL goes into its bye week and showcases the Pro Bowl.

The players don't care about this game - so I don't either.

But it also means that it's time for my annual Rate the Coaching Hire update.
And there are lots to review. A full 28 teams (nearly 1 in 4) changed their head guy.

Any good handicapper stays on top of these changes for good betting angles next year. Here are my takes on every change

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Team

Arkansas















Arkansas State


















Auburn
 













Boston College




















California 






















Cincinnati


























Colorado




















Florida International























Idaho












Kent State
















Kentucky























Louisiana Tech


























Nevada





















Northern Illinois






















Oregon























Purdue





















San Jose State












South Florida




















Southern Miss























Syracuse




























Temple





















Tennessee































Texas Tech

















Utah State
 


















UTEP















Western Kentucky















Western Michigan










Wisconsin

Head Coach

Bret Bielema















Bryan Harsin



















Gus Malzahn














Steve Addazio





















Sonny Dykes






















Tommy Tuberville

























Mike Macintyre




















Ron Turner
























Paul Petrino












Paul Haynes
















Mark Stoops























Skip Holtz



























Brian Polian





















Rod Carey























Mark Helfrich























Darrell Hazell





















Rod Caragher













Willie Taggert




















Todd Monken























Scott Shafer




























Matt Rhule





















Butch Jones































Kliff Kingsbury

















Matt Wells



















Sean Kugler















Bobby Petrino
















PJ Fleck











Gary Andersen

Former Position

HC Wisconsin















OC Texas



















HC Arkansas State














HC Temple





















HC Louisiana Tech 






















HC Texas Tech


























HC San Jose State




















QB Coach Tampa Bay























OC Arkansas












DC Arkansas
















DC Florida State























HC South Florida



























Special Teams Texas A&M




















OC Northern Illinois























OC Oregon























HC Kent State





















HC San Diego













HC Western Kentucky



















OC Oklahoma State























DC Syracuse




























Asst OL coach NY Giants




















HC Cincinnati































OC Texas A&M

















OC Utah State



















OL Coach Pittsburgh Steelers














HC Arkansas (2011) 















WR Coach Tampa Bay










HC Utah State

Bret got out while the getting' was good. His boorish personality was never well received Badgertown. Bret leveraged 3 straight Rose Bowls to go to the SEC West. Those Rose Bowls were less about his coaching ability and more due to Barry Alvarez's legacy and Bret's assistant coaches.

Now that those coaches are gone Bielema split too. Bielema has no clue as to the recuting landscape and brings nothing to the recruits living room. Saban, Miles and Sumlin are not worried about this hire. In a few years the Arkansas will be looking for a new Head Hog. 

The Red Wolves like hiring offensive coordinators. After one year stints by Hugh Freeze (now with Ole Miss) and Gus Malzahn (back with Auburn) Arkansas State went with the former OC for  Texas and before that Boise State.

Being the fourth HC in four years, Harsin has to convince the team and recruits he is staying. He's young (35) so most programs are going to want to see how he fares as a HC before getting his next promotion up the ladder. He's also talented. He was a finalist for the 2009 coordinator of the year and got the Texas offense back on track last year.

A good hire, Harsin will keep the Red Wolves in contention for the Sun Belt and bring some stability to the program for the next few years. 

Slick move by Gus. Last year I was questioning his move to Arkansas State after playing Maryland and Vandy for a HC spot. Turns out there was method to his madness. He was idling up in Sun Belt country while waiting for Gene Chizik to get fired. Got to imagine he knew what was going on down on the Plains.

War Eagle fans are excited since the figure the 2010 championship was more due to Malzahn's capabilities rather than Chiziks. Malzahn is a self touted offensive genius and is going to give Saban fits just like Sumlin did. Maybe with the Shotgun Buck Sweep  

This hire had more sizzle last year when Addazio was in the thick of the MAC championship hunt ending up 9-4 and a win over Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl. One year later Temple is in the Big East going 4-7 and losing their last 5 of 6.

So why the half step up to the ACC? The BC brain trust likes his energy, New England recruiting ties (he's from Connecticut) as well as his ties to Florida as the OC during the Tim Tebow years. But fans have been complainng abouut his play calling since his days at Florida Up the middle again??

Addazio brought in the DC from UConn and his OC from Temple so there is no doubt how is  going to play. It's going to be smash mouth football up in Chestnut Hill. Games are going to be close but the records are going to be mediocre. 

Another year and another PAC 12 team decides to go all offense all the time. Last year it was Wazzou, Arizona and AZ State. This year Cal tries its hand. Sonny's Air Raid teams at La Tech led the Div 1A in points per game (an amazing 51.5 per game average!) but they also had the very worst defense in yards allowed.

And in one of the most exciting games of the year, Dykes led his team to a near miss miracle come back against Texas A&M. Down 27-0 the Bulldogs rallied to nearly tie the game with 38 seconds left So close

Dykes knows his way around the PAC 12 from his day as the OC at Arizona and was also the OC at Texas Tech under current Washington State HC Mike Leach. Going to be a lot of points scored in Strawberry Canyon but unless the defense improves the chances of knocking off Stanford, USC and Oregon are slim.
 
Wow Cincinnati - I know Butch Jones left you in the lurch by going to Tennessee but Tommy Tuberville? The only reason that Tuberville was hired was due knowing the AD from their days at Auburn.

But that magical 13-0 season is a distant memory. In his three years at TTU, Tuberville took what was an exciting contender in the Big 12 into a mediocre after thought. Tuberville brings no excitement to he BearCat nation that knows full well he left just before getting fired.

Tuberville has no ties to Ohio making recruiting even more difficult. Add in a reprimand by the Big 12 for slapping a grad ass  and getting the parents on board will be tough too.

As the Big East works its way down the Div 1A ladder - the best program are going to the ACC while the Big East steals away teams from the CUSA - so will Tuberville works his was down the ever diluting Big East food chain. 

In a couple years Cincinnati will be looking for a new head coach and AD

If Macintyre can make San Jose State and Duke relevant then turning around Colorado is going to be a piece of cake. In two years Macintyre led the other Spartans to only their winning record in 20 years and to the best record  ever. Prior to SJSU, he was DC at Duke and orchestrated their best defenses ever.

Macintyre is from the Bill Parcells coaching tree having coached DBs for the Tuna at Dallas and the NY Jets.

This guys knows how to rebuild a pathetic programs. It makes you wonder how far he can go with some actual talent.

Colorado will be glad that Butch Jones turned them down for Tennessee - Macintyre is just what they need. 

This hire is bad in so many ways. First - FIU what are you doing firing Mario Cristobal? Granted, his team floundered this year going 3-9 but he was able to take a team that went 0-12 to the Sun Belt championship in four years. What does Ron Turner bring to the table?
 
Apparently, some think he must be some kind of offensive genius because his bother is Norv Turner (more on brother hires later). But as OC for Da Bears his teams were consistently ranked 20th or worse.

After getting canned by Chicago he took over as QB coach for the Bucs where Josh Freeman regressed horribly over the last two years.
 
Don't even get me started on his stint as HC at Illinois. He had one good year in 2001 when he went 10-2. The other six years he was a combined 9-26. Absolutely awful.

FIU is going to be terrible for a long time. Easily the worst hire and fire of the 2013 season.
 
Another brother hire - except for the Harbaughs those never work out. Paul is the younger brother of motorcycle mistress Bobby Petrino. He is also from the John L Smith coaching tree having coached under Slappy at Idaho, Louisville and Arkansas. Not the best coaching bloodlines.
 
Idaho was so bad that little brother will make some improvements but this hire will fizzle out in a few years. People may even notice if Idaho remains in Div 1A. 

Haynes returns to his roots as he is a 1991 Golden Flash alum. He knows the recruiting landscape well as he was also DC at Ohio State and coached DBs at Louisville and Michigan State. Hopefully the tutoring under Tressel will offset the inept defensive mentoring by John L Smith. 

Kent State has been historically bad even by MAC standards. After one magical year previous HC Darrel Hazel bolted for Purdue. Haynes will need to rebuild and has the coaching contacts in Ohio to bring in the necessary talent. This should play out as a disappointing first year that lays the ground work for more consistency in the MAC. 

Oh no!!! Not only is this another brother hire - it's a Stoops brother hire. Don't the folks in Lexington know what happened down in Arizona?  Brother Mike went down to the desert and after 7 years did absolutely nothing of note going 41-45.

Now Mark is the hot Stoops brother defensive coordinator. His record so far has been great - he turned a Seminole defense that ranked 108th when he stepped in to 2nd overall last year. Excellent work. Now we will find out if it is due to coaching genius or just plain old talent.

The talent level at FSU in their worst year will still be better than Kentucky. My guess is that the Wildcats will make some improvements but still be a step and a half behind the big boys in the SEC.

Kentucky just won't be able to compete for the recruits. His legacy will be around where brother Mike ended up. 

What an ugly couple of months its been down in Reston. It wasn't too long ago that the Bulldogs nearly beat Texas A&M in a fantastic comeback and were fringe BCS bowl candidates. Next thing you know they lose their head coach then their AD mishandles the bowl committees and they don't even go to a bowl despite going 9-3.
 
And while that is leaving a crap taste in their Utah the AD goes out and hire - Skip Holtz?? Skippy had some good years at UConn and East Carolina and his first year was pretty good at USF too. But he was never able to meet the expectations he stirred at USF going 5-7 and 3-9 the last two years.

Skip's inability to coach an offense will be a huge disappointment for Bull fans after two years of Sonny Dykes Air Raid beach party in the bayou.

The defenses will be better (they can't get much worse) but it won't be enough to be competitive in the diluted CUSA. The last champions of the WAC won't be competing for championships any time soon.

Who? Got to feel sorry for Polian - replacing a legend is never easy. Former HC Chris Ault was the inventor of the Pistol offense and his teams were always exciting to watch.

Polian has the bloodlines as his father is the legendary NFL GM Bill Polian. He has coached under several good coaches too in Marv Levy, Tony Dungy, Nick Saban, Jim Harbaugh, Kevin Sumlin and Charlie Weiss (well I didn't say they were all great coaches)

But for all the pedigree and name dropping  - Polian has never been more that a special teams coach. He is better known for being a good recruiter and recruiting coordinator which means he will most likely be an awful head coach (see Larry Porter and Mike Locksley).

Nevada is in for some lean years in the revitalized Mountain West. 

The Huskies have a good thing going and don't want to risk it - staying in house with Rod Carey.

The last time the Huskies had a HC bolt they made a nice pick in former HC Dave Dorien. It should be interesting to see if they make it two in a row.

Carey's offense was dynamic last year averaging better than 40 points per game ranking 15th in Div 1A. But his coaching resume is quite thin. He was promoted to OC this year after game one when the previous OC left for health reasons.

His other stints have been as OL coaches at such schools as Illinois State, North Dakota and Wisconsin Stout. Not very impressive when on a recruits living room couch.

NIU may have wanted continuity but things look like they are headed downward. 

Oregon's offense runs on the "next man in" hurry up offense. It's the same with their head coaches. After Mile Bellotti stepped away to be AD, he promoted his OC Chip Kelly to be HC. Now that Kelly is going to try his hand at the pros - it's time for his OC to take the helm.
 
Helfrich was able to keep the Quck Attack running at full speed under Kelly. The Ducks were 3rd in points scored and sixth overall in offense.

Helfrich is young (39) and knows the recruiting landscape from his stints at Oregon, Colorado and Boise State, Keeping the pipeline full of recruits should not be a problem. It's just that - like a copy machine - the second generation copy is never quite as good as the original.

Oregon is going to regress a half step. That being said until Bobby Petrino completes his self imposed exile (see WKU below) this was the best hire Oregon could make. 

Like many MAC coaches - after one or two good years they are onto better things. Hazell led the traditional doormat Golden Flashes to their first winning season since 2001, their first bowl since before Pearl Harbor and a heartbeat away from a BCS bowl game.

But success in the MAC is not always an indicator of success in the BCS conferences. For every Brian Kelly there is a Turner Gill and Tim Beckman.

Hazell has had some good tutors  having been asst HC under both Jim Tressel and Greg Schiano. With seven years under Tressel he knows his way around the Midwest recruiting trail.

Hazell will also provide a spark to the moribund Purdue offense and a few more victories in the relatively soft Leaders division.

He last time Caragher was replacing a head coach it was for Jim Harbaugh at the University of San Diego. His 44-22 and three (out of six) Pacific League championships are pretty good but not stellar. Caragher knows the recruiting landscape from his stints with the Toreros and seven years as an assistant with UCLA.

Still, teams that rise quickly can just as quickly flame out. SJSU doesn't have the pedigree to just roll in a new coach and assume everything will be fine. The other Spartans will likely succumb to mediocrity. 

Much like the MAC, a couple of solid years in the Sun Belt will lead to better things. Hugh Freeze has had good success at Ole Miss so maybe Taggert can do the same thing at USF.
 
Western Kentucky was the worst of the worst losing 20 straight games before Taggert stepped in. Taggert led them to back to back 7-5 seasons which is pretty good when you figure they have 3-4 payday games a year against BCS teams.

Prior to the Hilltoppers, he was the RB coach under Jim Harbaugh and coached up Toby Gerhard. And Taggert played under Jim's father Jack back when WKU was a powerhouse in Div 1AA.

An up and comer, Taggert will re energize a lifeless USF team in a waning Big East.

Southern Miss really screwed up last year in naming Ellis Johnson as HC. Johnson is  well known commodity as a DC (now back in that role at Auburn) but as a HC he was a disaster going 0-12.

An ofer?? Holy crap Batman! Southern Miss is used to CUSA champiosnhip races not looking up from the basement.

To top it off they passed on Monken last year. Good thing he doesn't hold a grudge.

This is the second time in three attempts that the Golden Eagles went with a Okie State OC. The last time was pretty successful in tapping Larry Fedora (now HC at North Carolina).

Monken kept things humming in Stillwater going fourth in total offense last year. Monken knows the recruiting area too with stints at LSU and La Tech. He should have Southern Miss back in the hunt for a CUSA championship.

When previous HC Doug Marrone left to go down the road to be HC for the Buffalo Bills, Syracuse was in a bit of a jam. The coaching carousel was windng down and the typical candidates were already gone.

So the Orange stayed in house and tapped their DC to be head coach. Not a very inspired pick. Shafer's track record has been rather modest. Syracuse ended up 54th in points allowed and 52nd in total defense. Yawn.

Prior to Syracuse he was the DC for Michigan in Dick Rod's first year. Ouch. That was a disaster.

One notable accoplishment was back in 2007. As DC under first year head coach Jim Harbaugh, Stanford pulled of the biggest upset in modern football history. The Cardinal were 41 point underdogs when they upset USC 24-23. And here is how it happened I had taken the points-  wish I had the money line on that game!

This pick sounds like Syracuse settled. They revert back to being an after thought in the Big Least 

Normally Asst OL coaches don't get promoted to HC straight away. Rhule got the gig due to his six year stint at Temple ultimately ending up as OC and recruiting coordinator from 2008-11.

His offenses sizzled while he was there ending up 17th in the nation in his last year. His recruiting was excellent too as he had the number 1 recruiting classes in the MAC.

He was turned down two years ago for the position when Al Golden left to become HC at Miami (FL). Now he says he is ready. I agree.

Temple had one of the worst offenses in Div 1A last year (107th) so improvement there is needed and he will get it done.

He knows the recruting landscape and has had success. Temple is going to get bavk in the Big East title race.

Butch finally gets off the Brian Kelly track having followed him at Central Michigan and Cincinnati. Now its time to see if he can turn around a program on his own.

So far he has been a imitation light of Kelly as the teams never quite reached the same level of success.

Jones was not the first or anywhere near the first pick for the Vols. Reports were that UT was tuned down by Jon Gruden and Charlie Strong. Gruden stayed in the booth at ESPN and Strong stayed with Louisville.

Meanwhile, Peyton Manning was trying to get Jones to go to Colorado. He ended up at Peyton's alma mater Tennessee.

Used to inhereting winning teams Jones takes over a mess in Knoxville. Tennessee has gone 1-7 in the SEC the last two years. But Jones isn't all that good. Supposedly an offensive guru he took over a BearCat team that ranked 6th in offense and slowly gummed it up ranking 44th in his last year.

Jones has no experience recruiting in or against the SEC. Tennessee is going to scramble to try to get to fourth in the SEC East. 

The Red Raiders are really robbing the cradle here. Kingsbury is all of 33 and 5 years of coaching experience total! The fans in Lubbock are excited as the alum returns having just gotten done mentoring the first freshman Heisman winner and beating Bama in their own crib. Nice!

Kingsbury followed Kevin Sumlin from Houston where he was OC - to A&M in the same position. So the question is - are the offensive powerhouses at those to schools due to Sumlin or Kingsbury?

The answer will be Sumlin. Kingsbury doesn't have the experience to run a BCS team. He is in over his head.

When Gary Andersen finally got his long deserved promotion, Utah State decided to keep things in house. Good move.

It's not like candidates are salivating to go to Utah State. Wells is more than happy having played QB there - graduating in 1996.

Wells directed a potent spread attack that ended up 21st in points scored and 19th overall last year. Naming Wells also meant that Uah State would retain their stable of up and coming assistants including DC Dave Aranda. Keep an eye on these two.

Wells knows the recruting landscape too from his stints at Utah State, New Mexico and Tulsa. The Aggies will remain a contender in the Mountain West. 

Mike "Its rolling baby!!" Price is finally gone. UTEP was a constant disappointment under Price. Every year the exptectations were - maybe this is the year they turn it around and then - nothing.

But Kugler is going to struggle too. Look no further than than Jon Embree for the  last time an alum with no coordinator experience came from the pro ranks to take over. Embree was a disaster.

Kugler will be as well. No experience, no recruting, nothing. Bad choice. Check back in two years as the Miners will be looking again.

Another big WOW! WKU decided that morals can be set aside for a couple of Sun Belt championships. The Hiltoppers are the instant favorites for the league title with this hire.

Moral compass aside - Petrino is that good. And Petrino is just treating this a purgatory to cleanse his soul to get back to the big leagues. Stay straight for a couple of years and anything can be forgiven.

And the betting window only cares about the score so I'll be looking to wager on the Hilltoppers a bunch next year. And just for fun - these parodies never get old Petrino canned at Arkansas 

The Broncos decided that youth must be a desirable trait as the hired the youngest coach in Div 1A (32). Otherwise he brings nothing to the table.

He is the same as Kugler except he is younger and not even an alum. He has marginal recruiting ties as he previous stints were as WR coach for the Bucs, Rutgers and Northern Illinois. WMU is headed to the bottom of the MAC.

I've been rooting for Andersen to get a bigger job for a few years now. He is the only coach I've seen that can run a spread offense and decent defense at the same time. And if you re not familiar with with the Utah State Aggies here are some highlights Aggie Ball. FYI I was there when they nearly upset Auburn at Jordan-Hare. Great game! Fun team to watch.

He got the attention of Wisconsin when earlier this year he took his Aggies into Camp Randall and were a FG away from winning. But is he a good fit in Madison?

The Badgers have been Alvarez's teams since Barry first got hired. Is he willing to let someone else take over his team? And is Andersen willing to adjust to the Badger power running game?

The Badgers don't have the players to run the spread and the last time a spread coach tried to change a ground and pound Big Ten team Dick Rod was being run out of Ann Arbor.

Andersen is a good enough coach to adapt to what he has in MadTown. He will incoporate some spread but it's still going to be primarily BuckyBall.

As far as recruiting - Wisconsin can sell itself long enough for Andersen to get to know the territory. Good hire - the Badgers will stay relevant in the Big Ten.