To the House!!
Oregon vs Kansas State over 74.0 – This game started out right. Oregon took the opening kickoff to the house!! Excellent – and then even better – went for 2 and got it. 12 seconds into the game and 8 points were on the board. This could be fun.
But Kansas State’s strategy was to milk the clock and try to keep it close – not a something you want to see if you want an over. And as the announcers kept saying – the strategy only works if you burn clock on your drive but you have to score.
Both teams return teams were great and KSU took the ensuing KO to their 32 and proceeded to march down to the Duck 32 where they turned it over on downs. Uggh.
A lesson I learned long ago was that finesse speed teams usually come out slow in bowl games. The month off affects their timing. I was to relearn that lesson again. Oregon was slow and a bit off. KSU was able to bottle up their ground game and keep the Duck passing game under wraps. In fact both teams were struggling offensively. With a minute to go in the first half the score was 15-10.
Then - Oregon took the ball at their 23 and became Oregon again. It took them only 54 seconds and they were in the end zone. The Quack Attack was back! I still had a chance.
After the Wildcats went three and out on their first drive of the second half – the Ducks kept up the pace and 2 minutes later were knocking on the door. But they only managed a FG - the bane of the over. Still - If the Ducks can keep up this pace I just might get the over.
But Kansas State’s strategy was to milk the clock and try to keep it close – not a something you want to see if you want an over. And as the announcers kept saying – the strategy only works if you burn clock on your drive but you have to score.
Both teams return teams were great and KSU took the ensuing KO to their 32 and proceeded to march down to the Duck 32 where they turned it over on downs. Uggh.
A lesson I learned long ago was that finesse speed teams usually come out slow in bowl games. The month off affects their timing. I was to relearn that lesson again. Oregon was slow and a bit off. KSU was able to bottle up their ground game and keep the Duck passing game under wraps. In fact both teams were struggling offensively. With a minute to go in the first half the score was 15-10.
Then - Oregon took the ball at their 23 and became Oregon again. It took them only 54 seconds and they were in the end zone. The Quack Attack was back! I still had a chance.
After the Wildcats went three and out on their first drive of the second half – the Ducks kept up the pace and 2 minutes later were knocking on the door. But they only managed a FG - the bane of the over. Still - If the Ducks can keep up this pace I just might get the over.
KSU was bottled up
Another KSU three and out and once again the Quack Attack was in the end zone. Now it was 32-10 with 10 minutes left in the third quarter. The play featured something I had never seen before and apparently is only the fourth time it has ever happened. Even the ref said it was unusual - a One Point Safety.
Things were looking good but I need KSU to score too otherwise the lead will get too big and Oregon will start milking the clock.
And that’s exactly what happened. KSU just could not get going. KSU kept going three and four and out and punting. With 10 minutes left in the game KSU finaly scored a TD to cut the margin to 32-17.
But it as too late. Chip Kelly dialed back the Quack Attack. Oregon had the ball with 7 minutes to go and in a series worthy of Notre Dame or Alabama – the Ducks went on a beautiful 5 minute drive and kicked FG. Nice drive but destroyed the over. Final score Oregon 35 KSU 17 LOSS The first loss of 2013 and certainly won’t be the last.
Things were looking good but I need KSU to score too otherwise the lead will get too big and Oregon will start milking the clock.
And that’s exactly what happened. KSU just could not get going. KSU kept going three and four and out and punting. With 10 minutes left in the game KSU finaly scored a TD to cut the margin to 32-17.
But it as too late. Chip Kelly dialed back the Quack Attack. Oregon had the ball with 7 minutes to go and in a series worthy of Notre Dame or Alabama – the Ducks went on a beautiful 5 minute drive and kicked FG. Nice drive but destroyed the over. Final score Oregon 35 KSU 17 LOSS The first loss of 2013 and certainly won’t be the last.
Picks is a killers for overs
Oklahoma +3.0 vs Texas A&M – What an intriguing matchup. Texas A&M left the Big 12 after 15 years and a meager 54% winning percentage. After years of being overshadowed by Texas and Oklahoma - it was going to be a fresh start.
And what a start it was! Most thought they would struggle for awhile in the SEC West until they were able to recruit up enough talent to be competitive. Instead they were able to beat Bama (in Tuscaloosa no less) and have the first ever freshman Heisman trophy winner.
A&M be playing with plenty of incentive. They are sort of like the little brother who left the family business to prove they could make it on their own. Now he returns and wants to show what a success he has been. Lose and you’re still the little brother.
Oklahoma will be playing with some incentive too. They feel they should be in the BCS but were jobbed by Northern Illinois getting to play FSU. That forced Louisville into the Sugar Bowl and the Sooners into the Cotton. They also will want to show the Big 12 was the best conference – better than the SEC this year. The SEC has owned this bowl going 8-1 versus the Big 12. The lone win was Missouri (now in the SEC) over Arkansas on 2008. Adding to the incentives is the coaching staffs – A&M HC Kevin Sumlin was on Bob Stoops staff from 2003-7 prior to leaving to be HC at Houston.
So why take the Sooners? Well these teams are fairly evenly matched. They come in with identical 10-2 marks with the four losses coming against the BCS #1 (Notre Dame), #3 (Florida), #5 (Kansas State) and #8 (LSU). A&M has the best player in the country Johnny “Football” Manziel. They also have a sure fire top 10 pick (most likely to the Lions) in DE Damontre Moore.
However, Oklahoma counters with perhaps the best pure QB in Sr. Landry Jones. While Manziel may have a Heisman in his first campaign, Jones is the first Div 1A QB to throw for 3,000 yards and 26 TDs for four straight years. Jones is also 3-0 in bowls. And his OL has been pretty good this year - allowing only six sacks in nine Big 12 games.
But the key reason is that A&M offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury jumped on the coaching carousel by taking over as HC Texas Tech. A freshman QB breaking in a new OC in his first bowl game? I’ll take the experience and the points.
And what a start it was! Most thought they would struggle for awhile in the SEC West until they were able to recruit up enough talent to be competitive. Instead they were able to beat Bama (in Tuscaloosa no less) and have the first ever freshman Heisman trophy winner.
A&M be playing with plenty of incentive. They are sort of like the little brother who left the family business to prove they could make it on their own. Now he returns and wants to show what a success he has been. Lose and you’re still the little brother.
Oklahoma will be playing with some incentive too. They feel they should be in the BCS but were jobbed by Northern Illinois getting to play FSU. That forced Louisville into the Sugar Bowl and the Sooners into the Cotton. They also will want to show the Big 12 was the best conference – better than the SEC this year. The SEC has owned this bowl going 8-1 versus the Big 12. The lone win was Missouri (now in the SEC) over Arkansas on 2008. Adding to the incentives is the coaching staffs – A&M HC Kevin Sumlin was on Bob Stoops staff from 2003-7 prior to leaving to be HC at Houston.
So why take the Sooners? Well these teams are fairly evenly matched. They come in with identical 10-2 marks with the four losses coming against the BCS #1 (Notre Dame), #3 (Florida), #5 (Kansas State) and #8 (LSU). A&M has the best player in the country Johnny “Football” Manziel. They also have a sure fire top 10 pick (most likely to the Lions) in DE Damontre Moore.
However, Oklahoma counters with perhaps the best pure QB in Sr. Landry Jones. While Manziel may have a Heisman in his first campaign, Jones is the first Div 1A QB to throw for 3,000 yards and 26 TDs for four straight years. Jones is also 3-0 in bowls. And his OL has been pretty good this year - allowing only six sacks in nine Big 12 games.
But the key reason is that A&M offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury jumped on the coaching carousel by taking over as HC Texas Tech. A freshman QB breaking in a new OC in his first bowl game? I’ll take the experience and the points.
week_18_bettors_guide.xls |