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Week 17 - Part 7

12/30/2014

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PictureClemson laid the 2nd worst bowl loss on Oklahoma ever
Well, that was a lot better day. Guess I’m beginning to dry out after Christmas week and an extended trip to the Outdoor Ampitheatre.

The Big Book of Guesses went 3-0 and the Doofus went 2-0 on the Mega bets as

Clemson +5.0 vs Oklahoma – Clemson came ready to play. Oklahoma didn’t. The Sooners were terrible at the start as they turned it over twice in the first quarter including a pick six and the Tigers capitalized. Another turnover in the second quarter led to a 27-0 first half lead for Clemson.

The Tigers kept the pedal to the medal as the built the lead to 40-0 after three.

Oklahoma QB Trevor Knight was horrible in the game throwing for 103 yards, 0 TDs and 3 picks. The announcers were wondering if he should retire after a brutal hit he took back in the Baylor game. It appeared to have lingering effect.

The Sooners got a meaningless TD in the fourth quarter after Clemson had pulled all its starters to make the final score 40-7 WIN. This game was gift wrapped for the Doofus. A late Christmas present.

Arkansas -7.0 vs Texas – That was old timey Wisconsin ball. Texas knew what Arkansas was going to do and they couldn’t stop it. The Hogs wore down the Horns and played superb defense.

By the time Texas entered the fourth quarter they had only 29 yards of total offense. They finished the game with 59.

Meanwhile Arkansas rolled to 351 yards. Texas never had a chance. Final score Arkansas 31 Texas 7 WIN

Three more games are on the docket today starting with:

PictureThe Domer defense has been a disaster
LSU -7.5 vs Notre Dame – Two marquee teams face off in a less than marquee Music City Bowl

Notre Dame looked like they might be on their way to the playoffs after a 6-0 start and an excruciating loss to FSU. And then whoops! The defense went into the tank getting torched on a weekly basis. The Irish flamed out losing 5 of their last six while giving up an average of 43 points.

LSU’s defense, meanwhile, was outstanding finishing 8th overall (4th against the pass). It was the offense that struggled generating only 46 points over their last 4 games. But the defense was good enough to get the Tigers wins in two of those games.

ND’s offense has struggled too. They have committed 11 turnovers over the last 6 games.  Chronic turnovers caused HC Brian Kelly to bench QB Everett Golson and start sophomore Malik Zaire. Zaire was spotty against USC going 9-20 and 170 yards.

Notre Dame is horrific against the spread. Brian Kelly is 1-6 ATS in bowls and the Irish are on a five game losing streak ATS. LSU went 8-4 ATS this season.

With ND struggling on both sides of the ball and LSU dominant on defense, expect LSU to grind out points and force multiple Irish turnovers. I’ll take LSU and lay the points. 

PictureWhile Louisville's defense is solid
Louisville +7.0 vs Georgia – The Belk Bowl will be stepping up a weight class as they host a pair of ranked teams looking for their 10th wins.

For a change we get two teams coming in on winning streaks. Georgia has won eight of their last 10 (although losing their last game to Tech on the kick and the pick – nice). Louisville went 7-2 down the stretch losing only to #2 FSU and #18 Clemson. And, as opposed to Georgia, they are coming off a win over SEC South Carolina 35-17.

Georgia relies on a pounding running game behind freshman star Nick Chubb. When Chubb stepped in for Todd Gurley the Dawg ground game never missed a beat as he ran for 1,281 yards and 12 TDs. QB Hutson Mason has been careful with the football. His pick against Ga Tech snapped a six game streak of games with 0 interceptions. For the year he had 20 TDs and only 4 picks.

Louisville hired former Georgia DC to be their DC and it’s led to fantastic results. The Cardinals were #3 against the rush. And while they were only 31st against the pass they did lead the nation in interceptions with 25 picks.

It’s the Cardinal offense that is a concern. Louisville will be starting their 3rd string QB, freshman Kyle Bolin, after Reggie Bonnafon and Will Gardner went down with injuries. Bolin came in during the final game against Kentucky and threw 3 TDs and 1 pick.

I’m torn in this game. Starting a freshman has not fared well in the bowls this year. But, Louisville has been better against the spread. They were 4-1 ATS away from home while Georgia is 4-8 ATS away from Athens. Richt is also 1-3 ATS in bowl games.

And Georgia has been up and down during the year. The same team that crushed Auburn and Missouri also lost to South Carolina and Florida.

I’ll take the more consistent team, the better defense and the points. No quatloos though.

PictureMaryland hopes Stefon Diggs gives them a chance
Maryland +13.5 vs Stanford – It’s been quite a disappointing year for the Cardinal. Less than a year after playing in the Rose Bowl they will be playing in the Foster Farms Bowl. At least they won’t have to leave the county to do it.

Maryland will need to travel across the country for the game but may come in better motivated, getting a chance to play a PAC 12 team in their backyard. But motivation can take you only so far. Maryland struggles to score. They are 67th overall in points scored and face a Cardinal defense that was 2nd in points and yards allowed.

The Terps are placing their hopes on the return of star WR Stefon Biggs who will play after missing 4 games with a lacerated spleen.

He will face a defense that was also 7th against the pass.

Stanford got the offense going late in the season scoring over 30 points in both their last two games – wins over Cal and UCLA.

Stanford was 1-5 against ranked teams but dominated the rest of the slate winning by an average 24 points per game. Stanford has been a double digit favorite five times going 4-1ATS. Maryland has been a double digit dog once - getting blown out by the Spartans 37-15. 

Maryland doesn’t stand a prayer if Stanford comes in even half way motivated. HC David Shaw will keep his team motivated.

Laying the points on the better defense is paying off in the Bowls so I’ll lay 2 TDs and take Stanford for a Mega Bet. 

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