It’s time for the Annual Bowl Pick edition of the Big Book of Guesses.
But before I get to the Bowl Picks - a quick recap of last weeks action.
The Doofus kept his winning streak going with another Meg Bet Win
Navy vs Army Under 57.0 - For the 13th straight year Navy sang second.
At first it looked like this might be the year that Army breaks through. The Black Knights blocked navy's first punt for a scoop six. Dwink was going nuts. army was up 7-0 early in the first quarter. I was fretting about the under. Nothing like special team scores to put up quick points.
But the game soon returned to as expected. Long drives to midfield and then punt.
Navy finally put together a drive and scored a TD to end the first half. Navy 7 Army 7. Dwink's initial enthusiasm was waning.
Navy opened the 3rd quarter with a FG to go up 10-7. Army then marched into Navy territory but missed a long FG.
The clincher for sealing the under then happened. Navy went on a drive that burned off nearly eight minutes off the clock. It resulted in a TD but by now there were only 12 minutes left in the game and the score was 17-7.
The game returned to form again as both teams went on long drives and then punted. Army got a FG with less than two minutes left to make the final score 17-10. WIN This game was perhaps the easiest Mega Bet win of the year.
But before I get to the Bowl Picks - a quick recap of last weeks action.
The Doofus kept his winning streak going with another Meg Bet Win
Navy vs Army Under 57.0 - For the 13th straight year Navy sang second.
At first it looked like this might be the year that Army breaks through. The Black Knights blocked navy's first punt for a scoop six. Dwink was going nuts. army was up 7-0 early in the first quarter. I was fretting about the under. Nothing like special team scores to put up quick points.
But the game soon returned to as expected. Long drives to midfield and then punt.
Navy finally put together a drive and scored a TD to end the first half. Navy 7 Army 7. Dwink's initial enthusiasm was waning.
Navy opened the 3rd quarter with a FG to go up 10-7. Army then marched into Navy territory but missed a long FG.
The clincher for sealing the under then happened. Navy went on a drive that burned off nearly eight minutes off the clock. It resulted in a TD but by now there were only 12 minutes left in the game and the score was 17-7.
The game returned to form again as both teams went on long drives and then punted. Army got a FG with less than two minutes left to make the final score 17-10. WIN This game was perhaps the easiest Mega Bet win of the year.
2014-15 Bowl Confidence Picks
Every year the complaint comes up –there are too many bowls!!
Not me – I can’t get enough of ‘em. Sure there are more this year than any other which also means there are a ton of mediocre teams playing. But it’s also a time to see some matchups that you never get to see otherwise. Big time teams playing out of conference non cupcakes for a change and mid major powers positioning for next year’s BCS bowls.
When else to you get to see two legendary programs like Alabama and Ohio State square off. Or two consistent BCS contenders like Oklahoma versus Clemson. How about TCU’s Air Frog offense going against Ole Miss’ Landshark defense. At the same time MSU is battling the high powered Bears from Baylor, Auburn will be facing off against Wisconsin.
Then again, there are bowls with traditional powers that are realizing that the football landscape has changed for good and they will never be the super powers they were in the past. USC faces Nebraska who will be without their head coach after serial nine win seasons. Can the fan base take another loss?
And speaking of new head coaches – first year head coaches Charlie Strong (Texas) and Bret Beliema (Arkansas) will square off in a game reminiscent of the old Southwest Conference.
How about a Northern Illinois taking on Marshall? These having been knocking on the door to make a BCS bowl the last couple of years. This bowl will be the only one to feature two conference champions not playing in the playoffs.
And, of course, there are the accidental fun games. Games like Rutgers vs North Carolina in the highly esteemed Quick Lane Bowl. A chance for the gang to hoot and holler against either Ellis or Dobby depending on how the game is going.
With so many bowls there is no better way to make sure you have a stake in every game and make you tune in than to play in a confidence pool. Since you have read this far it means you have a more than passing interest in football and probably know how confidence pools work.
But for the motivated reader with a high tolerance for drivel who has made it this far – a confidence pool has you pick every bowl game and assign points depending on how confident you are in the pick. This year with 38 bowl games it means you assign 38 points to your most confident, absolute slam dunk, can’t happen any other way team. And one point on an upset or you just can’t figure the game out or you don’t want to jinx your favorite team.
And by playing in a pool all of a sudden that Toledo versus Arkansas State game (should be a great game too!) that you otherwise couldn’t care less about – has you glued to the TV as a mid teen pick.
So how to pick teams? Well there are some things to consider. First obviously is the spread. Last thing you want to do is put a ton of points on a huge upset. Putting 38 points on UTEP to upset Utah State is a high risk strategy. Of course if it did pan out you would be way ahead in your pool. High risk equals high reward.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for picking upsets. Bowl games are littered with them. So what should you look at in picking teams and allocating points.
Every year the complaint comes up –there are too many bowls!!
Not me – I can’t get enough of ‘em. Sure there are more this year than any other which also means there are a ton of mediocre teams playing. But it’s also a time to see some matchups that you never get to see otherwise. Big time teams playing out of conference non cupcakes for a change and mid major powers positioning for next year’s BCS bowls.
When else to you get to see two legendary programs like Alabama and Ohio State square off. Or two consistent BCS contenders like Oklahoma versus Clemson. How about TCU’s Air Frog offense going against Ole Miss’ Landshark defense. At the same time MSU is battling the high powered Bears from Baylor, Auburn will be facing off against Wisconsin.
Then again, there are bowls with traditional powers that are realizing that the football landscape has changed for good and they will never be the super powers they were in the past. USC faces Nebraska who will be without their head coach after serial nine win seasons. Can the fan base take another loss?
And speaking of new head coaches – first year head coaches Charlie Strong (Texas) and Bret Beliema (Arkansas) will square off in a game reminiscent of the old Southwest Conference.
How about a Northern Illinois taking on Marshall? These having been knocking on the door to make a BCS bowl the last couple of years. This bowl will be the only one to feature two conference champions not playing in the playoffs.
And, of course, there are the accidental fun games. Games like Rutgers vs North Carolina in the highly esteemed Quick Lane Bowl. A chance for the gang to hoot and holler against either Ellis or Dobby depending on how the game is going.
With so many bowls there is no better way to make sure you have a stake in every game and make you tune in than to play in a confidence pool. Since you have read this far it means you have a more than passing interest in football and probably know how confidence pools work.
But for the motivated reader with a high tolerance for drivel who has made it this far – a confidence pool has you pick every bowl game and assign points depending on how confident you are in the pick. This year with 38 bowl games it means you assign 38 points to your most confident, absolute slam dunk, can’t happen any other way team. And one point on an upset or you just can’t figure the game out or you don’t want to jinx your favorite team.
And by playing in a pool all of a sudden that Toledo versus Arkansas State game (should be a great game too!) that you otherwise couldn’t care less about – has you glued to the TV as a mid teen pick.
So how to pick teams? Well there are some things to consider. First obviously is the spread. Last thing you want to do is put a ton of points on a huge upset. Putting 38 points on UTEP to upset Utah State is a high risk strategy. Of course if it did pan out you would be way ahead in your pool. High risk equals high reward.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for picking upsets. Bowl games are littered with them. So what should you look at in picking teams and allocating points.
Change in Coaches
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches any ways.
Here are the bowl teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Wisconsin – In one of the biggest surprises, Gary Anderson bolted for Oregon State
Pittsburgh – Paul Chryst returns to Wisconsin where he was OC to be HC. OC Joe Rudolph (who can root against Rudolph??) will guide the Panthers in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Houston – Pitt’s opponent fired their HC Tony Levine. DC David Gibbs was named interim HC
Nebraska – Bo Pelini won 9 games again and it wasn't enough. TE coach Barry Cotton will lead the Huskers against USC
Florida – Will Muschamp got canned and then landed at Auburn as DC. Florida DC, DJ Durkin, will lead the Gators against East Carolina
Colorado State – Jim McElwain left to return to Florida. OC Dave Baldwin (that’s right - he’s the former OC under John LLLL… Smith) was named interim HC
Last year teams that replaced their head coaches went 3-3
Motivation
Perhaps even more important is the motivation factor. Some teams are excited to be in a bowl while others are pissed they missed a bigger bowl or overlook their opponent. If you are looking for an upset to jump you in the pool – this is where to look.
Two team are returning to the same bowl they played in last season. Will they be as motivated the second time around?
Louisiana-Lafayette – Another year and UL Lafayette is playing in the New Orleans. Last year they beat Tulane
Alabama – Last year the Tide lost to Oklahoma in New Orleans. This year’s Sugar Bowl is a whole different animal.
Last year returning teams went 2-3
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. They fired their head coaches any ways.
Here are the bowl teams that won’t have their head coaches returning next year:
Wisconsin – In one of the biggest surprises, Gary Anderson bolted for Oregon State
Pittsburgh – Paul Chryst returns to Wisconsin where he was OC to be HC. OC Joe Rudolph (who can root against Rudolph??) will guide the Panthers in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Houston – Pitt’s opponent fired their HC Tony Levine. DC David Gibbs was named interim HC
Nebraska – Bo Pelini won 9 games again and it wasn't enough. TE coach Barry Cotton will lead the Huskers against USC
Florida – Will Muschamp got canned and then landed at Auburn as DC. Florida DC, DJ Durkin, will lead the Gators against East Carolina
Colorado State – Jim McElwain left to return to Florida. OC Dave Baldwin (that’s right - he’s the former OC under John LLLL… Smith) was named interim HC
Last year teams that replaced their head coaches went 3-3
Motivation
Perhaps even more important is the motivation factor. Some teams are excited to be in a bowl while others are pissed they missed a bigger bowl or overlook their opponent. If you are looking for an upset to jump you in the pool – this is where to look.
Two team are returning to the same bowl they played in last season. Will they be as motivated the second time around?
Louisiana-Lafayette – Another year and UL Lafayette is playing in the New Orleans. Last year they beat Tulane
Alabama – Last year the Tide lost to Oklahoma in New Orleans. This year’s Sugar Bowl is a whole different animal.
Last year returning teams went 2-3
Five teams won conference championships for the first time in forever and will want to keep the party going.
Memphis - won its first conference championship since 1971
TCU – Last won a conference championship in the Mountain West in 2011
Ohio State – Kept making themselves ineligible. First BIG championship since 2009
Marshall - won its first outright conference championship since the MAC in 2002.
This stat went 1-4 last year. MSU was only winner!
Location
Some people like to factor this in figuring that teams playing closer to home will have a better crowd and familiarity with the surroundings. They could be onto something.
This year the “home” teams are:
UL Lafayette – 4th straight year here for the Ragin Cajuns
UTEP – Miners play up the road in the New Mexico Bowl
South Alabama – stays in state for the Camellia Bowl
San Diego State – stays in San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl. Joe will go as an excuse to tailgate
Central Florida – The Knights take a short hop down I-4 to play in the St. Petersburg Bowl
Texas – The Longhorns play in Houston
Stanford – Maryland travels across the country to play the Cardinal in Santa Clara
Arizona – A short hop up I-10 for the Wildcats in the Fiesta Bowl
Baylor – stays in state to play in the Cotton Bowl
Houston – stays in Texas too for the Armed Forces Bowl
The “home” teams didn't fare too well last year going 2-6. UNC and North Texas were only winners.
And of course there is the overall strategy. Most people take the same highly favored teams and bet a ton of points on them. Last year, in our pool with over 100 entrants, picking winners and allocating points based solely on the point spread would have put you 15th (and tied with Fuss. Things that make you go Hmmmm…) This year using that strategy will leave you with these picks:
Memphis - won its first conference championship since 1971
TCU – Last won a conference championship in the Mountain West in 2011
Ohio State – Kept making themselves ineligible. First BIG championship since 2009
Marshall - won its first outright conference championship since the MAC in 2002.
This stat went 1-4 last year. MSU was only winner!
Location
Some people like to factor this in figuring that teams playing closer to home will have a better crowd and familiarity with the surroundings. They could be onto something.
This year the “home” teams are:
UL Lafayette – 4th straight year here for the Ragin Cajuns
UTEP – Miners play up the road in the New Mexico Bowl
South Alabama – stays in state for the Camellia Bowl
San Diego State – stays in San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl. Joe will go as an excuse to tailgate
Central Florida – The Knights take a short hop down I-4 to play in the St. Petersburg Bowl
Texas – The Longhorns play in Houston
Stanford – Maryland travels across the country to play the Cardinal in Santa Clara
Arizona – A short hop up I-10 for the Wildcats in the Fiesta Bowl
Baylor – stays in state to play in the Cotton Bowl
Houston – stays in Texas too for the Armed Forces Bowl
The “home” teams didn't fare too well last year going 2-6. UNC and North Texas were only winners.
And of course there is the overall strategy. Most people take the same highly favored teams and bet a ton of points on them. Last year, in our pool with over 100 entrants, picking winners and allocating points based solely on the point spread would have put you 15th (and tied with Fuss. Things that make you go Hmmmm…) This year using that strategy will leave you with these picks:
Then again, while that strategy did pretty well (and better than the Doofus) three of the top four biggest favorites lost. It’s why it placed just outside the money.
Another strategy is to pick a couple that may get upset and allocated fewer points. That way if they lose you don’t get dinged as much. In confidence pools - it not the teams that win that matter it’s the teams that lose with big points that really count.
Most pools have a “potential points” tracking during the bowl season. That is what to focus on not the points so far. Key is to not have your big point teams get upset. Allocate less points to a heavy favorite and you can actually root against them if needed to get ahead.
Of course, if your favorite team is the underdog, you can always pick them to win. Just put fewer points on the pick.
So with all that in mind attached are my picks for the 2014-2015 season. I am in two pools so I have the picks for both pools. The first set of picks will make minor modifications to the spread and Sagarin rating. No way am I taking Baylor to beat the Spartans. The second picks factor in all the football I watched plus a few heart picks.
Those picks look like this:
Another strategy is to pick a couple that may get upset and allocated fewer points. That way if they lose you don’t get dinged as much. In confidence pools - it not the teams that win that matter it’s the teams that lose with big points that really count.
Most pools have a “potential points” tracking during the bowl season. That is what to focus on not the points so far. Key is to not have your big point teams get upset. Allocate less points to a heavy favorite and you can actually root against them if needed to get ahead.
Of course, if your favorite team is the underdog, you can always pick them to win. Just put fewer points on the pick.
So with all that in mind attached are my picks for the 2014-2015 season. I am in two pools so I have the picks for both pools. The first set of picks will make minor modifications to the spread and Sagarin rating. No way am I taking Baylor to beat the Spartans. The second picks factor in all the football I watched plus a few heart picks.
Those picks look like this:
And to help you with your bowl picking I have attached this handy dandy Bowl Picking guide.
And as usual I have included the spreads, times and lots of other useful information.
And as usual I have included the spreads, times and lots of other useful information.
2014-15 Bowl Bettors Guide |
Remember - the 2014 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 15th at the LVH Hotel