Analysts having been pouring over the Big Book of Guesses looking for trends The Year so Far
Well, no doubt, even with last week’s excellent results, the Doofus has been struggling. In Div 1A action I’m 9-11 with the Mega Bets and I don’t even want to talk about the NFL (1-7).
But not so much the Big Book of Guesses. It has gone 253-234-7 or 52.8% in the college games. Not bad actually, as that would make a sliver pf profit after factoring in the Casino’s spiff.
Now, the next several paragraphs are going to be a lot of stats so some of you may want to skip this update (Johnny E’s are glazing over as we speak while Mr H is moving closer to the computer in great anticipation). But for those who want to see some analytics in order to prep for the GO JUMBO trip – you may find this stuff interesting.
So let’s start with my favorite – college football.
So far the year, there have been 494 lined games. Vegas will often put out lines on FBS vs FCS games but I don’t include those.
Of the 494 games, home teams have gone 227-260-7 against the spread or 46.6%. So if you were to just pick away teams regardless of the spread you would have covered 53.4% of the time. Profitable.
Similarly, favorites have gone an almost identical 228-259-7 or 46.8%. Underdogs are covering at a 53.2% clip. This is why the Sheriff and the Doofus often say “When in doubt take the points”
Now, let's start having some fun. How about if we combine these stats?
Well, no doubt, even with last week’s excellent results, the Doofus has been struggling. In Div 1A action I’m 9-11 with the Mega Bets and I don’t even want to talk about the NFL (1-7).
But not so much the Big Book of Guesses. It has gone 253-234-7 or 52.8% in the college games. Not bad actually, as that would make a sliver pf profit after factoring in the Casino’s spiff.
Now, the next several paragraphs are going to be a lot of stats so some of you may want to skip this update (Johnny E’s are glazing over as we speak while Mr H is moving closer to the computer in great anticipation). But for those who want to see some analytics in order to prep for the GO JUMBO trip – you may find this stuff interesting.
So let’s start with my favorite – college football.
So far the year, there have been 494 lined games. Vegas will often put out lines on FBS vs FCS games but I don’t include those.
Of the 494 games, home teams have gone 227-260-7 against the spread or 46.6%. So if you were to just pick away teams regardless of the spread you would have covered 53.4% of the time. Profitable.
Similarly, favorites have gone an almost identical 228-259-7 or 46.8%. Underdogs are covering at a 53.2% clip. This is why the Sheriff and the Doofus often say “When in doubt take the points”
Now, let's start having some fun. How about if we combine these stats?
Simply taking road underdogs would generate some nice profits – covering nearly 55% of the time
How did the Big Book of Guesses do?
How did the Big Book of Guesses do?
When Picking faorites vs Underdogs
Taking the points pays off
How about home vs away?
How about home vs away?
Taking the visitors has been profitable too
Now lets combine the two
Now lets combine the two
A pattern begins to emerge. When the BBofG picks a home favorite it only wins 46.2% of the time. But when picking any other type of scenario it wins and wins enough to cover the spiff. When picking home dogs it wins 53.4% of the time, Away favorites win 52.4% and Away dogs a very nice 55.8% of the times
Does the size of the spread matter? (Joe: “of course size matters”)
By segregating the data into key spread points of 3, 7, 10 and 14 we get
Does the size of the spread matter? (Joe: “of course size matters”)
By segregating the data into key spread points of 3, 7, 10 and 14 we get
In other words, favorites of 0-3 points covered a mere 40.2% of the time. Or you could also say that underdogs of 0-3 points have covered nearly 60% of the time. That will win some serious coin in Vegas.
Similarly taking the underdog when the spread is 7.5-10 would win 58.9% of the time.
On spreads of 3.5 to 7 points you might as well break out the Big Flippy
How about the BBofG?
Similarly taking the underdog when the spread is 7.5-10 would win 58.9% of the time.
On spreads of 3.5 to 7 points you might as well break out the Big Flippy
How about the BBofG?
The BBofG has wisely taken a lot of underdogs when the spread is 0-3 such that it won at 56.1% in this situation. And it did really well in games with a 7.5-10 point spread winning over 60% of the time.
By the same token it struggled when the spread was between a FG and a TD winning only 46.3% of the time (or as Pat would point out – losing 53.7% of the time).
By comparing those picks to the overall stat that favorites won exactly half the time when the spread was 3.5 – 7 it means that the BBofG took too many underdogs in those games.
Now let’s break it down even further (Mr. H is salivating right now) and add it home and away with the point spread.
By the same token it struggled when the spread was between a FG and a TD winning only 46.3% of the time (or as Pat would point out – losing 53.7% of the time).
By comparing those picks to the overall stat that favorites won exactly half the time when the spread was 3.5 – 7 it means that the BBofG took too many underdogs in those games.
Now let’s break it down even further (Mr. H is salivating right now) and add it home and away with the point spread.
Overall, when the home team is favored by 0-3 points it only covers 38% of the team. Wow! Taking the away underdog team here would win 62% of the time. The casino would stop wanting to take your bets (or try to liquor you up a bunch so that you would try to double down at the craps table)
In fact taking home favorites is a losing bet in all but in situations except where the spread is between 3.5 and 7 points.
How about the BBofG? How did it do when the home team was favored? (The stats below are when the Home Team was favored – not when the BBofG picked a home favorite)
In fact taking home favorites is a losing bet in all but in situations except where the spread is between 3.5 and 7 points.
How about the BBofG? How did it do when the home team was favored? (The stats below are when the Home Team was favored – not when the BBofG picked a home favorite)
The BBofG wisely took the underdogs when the home team is favored. It has done a very good job when the home team is favored by 7.5-10 points winning at 58.3% of the time.
And once again it struggled when the spread was 3.5-7 points losing a 56.9% clip. Got to stay away from those games.
Now let’s take a look at games where the away team is favored.
And once again it struggled when the spread was 3.5-7 points losing a 56.9% clip. Got to stay away from those games.
Now let’s take a look at games where the away team is favored.
Interesting. When the away team is favored by 10 points or less taking the away favorite is profitable. But once it gets above 10 points it drops off rapidly.
How about the BBofG – how did it do when the away team is favored?
How about the BBofG – how did it do when the away team is favored?
Excellent results when the point spread is 10 points or less. Even better than merely taking the away favorite. But when that spread got above 10 points – it still did better but not enough to get to break even. It still got suckered into taking too many away favorites above 10 points.
The lesson is that when an away team is favored by more than 10 better lean towards taking the home team.
Let’s take a look at the NFL
The thing about the NFL is how much better Vegas is in setting the line. Need proof? Check this out
So far there have been 134 lined games. Of those exactly half have been won by the favorites and half the underdogs have covered
The lesson is that when an away team is favored by more than 10 better lean towards taking the home team.
Let’s take a look at the NFL
The thing about the NFL is how much better Vegas is in setting the line. Need proof? Check this out
So far there have been 134 lined games. Of those exactly half have been won by the favorites and half the underdogs have covered
Amazing. Simply amazing. The split is exactly 50/50. That is why the NFL is so hard to bet on.
Now there is a tendency for the away teams to cover
Now there is a tendency for the away teams to cover
So if you just took the away teams on the NFL you would be making a profit.
Now let’s combine the stats and see of anything pops out
Now let’s combine the stats and see of anything pops out
Looks like away favorites is the way to go. A bit surprising, I would have thought that away dogs would be better.
And how about the Big Book of Guesses?
And how about the Big Book of Guesses?
Better than I thought actually. It’s just a smidge under 50% and it really doesn’t matter whether it picks the favorite or underdog
How about when the BBofG picks home teams vs away teams
How about when the BBofG picks home teams vs away teams
Since the away teams are winning, when the BBofG takes the away teams it wins too.
Now lets combine the two
Now lets combine the two
The BBofG does well when it picks away favorites since they are winning at a pretty good clip.
Now let’s take a look to see if the size of the spread matters (Yeah, I know Joe)
In fact lets just skip to Home and Away and the size of the spread.
Overall in the NFL
Now let’s take a look to see if the size of the spread matters (Yeah, I know Joe)
In fact lets just skip to Home and Away and the size of the spread.
Overall in the NFL
Looks like favorites (whether home or away) of a FG or less won at a pretty good clip.
Overall the favorites of a FG or less went
So if the spread in an NFL game is a FG or less take the favorite, regardles if it is home or away. But, if the spread is greater than 3 take the underdog.
Excellent angle for the NFL games.
How did the BBofG do?
When picking favorites
Excellent angle for the NFL games.
How did the BBofG do?
When picking favorites
Pretty good when taking favorites of 3 points or less because they are winning at such a good rate. But at larger spreads, it's pretty just about break even.
How about when it takes the underdogs?
How about when it takes the underdogs?
The big number is the BBofG is doing well when taking the dog in spreads of 3.5-7. Overall it went
Otherwise the BBofG has not done well taking dogs.
So in summary
In college games
1. Take the away dogs – especially when the spread is less than 3 points
2. Take away favorites when the spread is 3 or less (in fact, just take the away team when the spread is a FG or less)
3. Listen to the Big Book of Guesses when the spread is 7.5 to 10.0
In the NFL
1. Take favorites with the spread is a FG or less
2. When the spread gets larger than 3 – take the underdog
3. Listen to the BBofG on spreads of 3.5 to 7
I'll try using these bits of advice for Week 11 as a test run for the GO JUMBO trip.
Won't be long now!
So in summary
In college games
1. Take the away dogs – especially when the spread is less than 3 points
2. Take away favorites when the spread is 3 or less (in fact, just take the away team when the spread is a FG or less)
3. Listen to the Big Book of Guesses when the spread is 7.5 to 10.0
In the NFL
1. Take favorites with the spread is a FG or less
2. When the spread gets larger than 3 – take the underdog
3. Listen to the BBofG on spreads of 3.5 to 7
I'll try using these bits of advice for Week 11 as a test run for the GO JUMBO trip.
Won't be long now!
