We'll be having Possum and other vittles The wait is over!! Football is finally here.
The Doofus Deck has gone on a Sabbatical until we build our new house. Mrs. Doofus keeps trying to downsize it a bit but I have held firm on one thing – the Doofus Deck 3.0 is going to be a masterpiece.
So this season the Doofus Deck activities are going to be a traveling circus. Chris has agreed to use the Outdoor Amphitheatre for week 1. I’ll come over a little early to help set up the flags and additional TVs. Might even bring over some home made vittles. Chris says he will cook up some kind of meat - he's leaning towards dead possum. Should be a great start to the 2014 season.
And there will be lots of good games to kick off the season.
Dobby will long be in bed by the time Rutgers kicks off in Seattle on Thursday to face off against Washington State. Wazzou Head Coach is starting to hit his stride having beaten USC and Arizona on the road last year. His air attacks are good for a ton of points and Rutgers is down three players in the defensive backfield. Rutgers has an experienced senior QB in Gary Nova and a new OC in Ralph Friedgen. But the Scarlet Knights have never beaten a school from the PAC 12. I’m looking to take the over at 61.
Rock’s Wake Forest squad will have a new HC for the first time since 2000. They open in a revenge game against UL Monroe. The Warhawks upset the Deacs 21-19 last year setting in the motion the hiring of Dave Clawson. Clawson got Bowling Green on solid footing taking them to a 10-4 record and a MAC Championship. He’s decided to start a true freshman QB against a veteran Warhawk defense. ULM is starting a new QB this year too which could lead to some growing pains against a decent Wake defense. Wake is giving 2.5 on the road. I'll take the Warhaks at home in what should be a low scoring affair.
The Doofus Deck has gone on a Sabbatical until we build our new house. Mrs. Doofus keeps trying to downsize it a bit but I have held firm on one thing – the Doofus Deck 3.0 is going to be a masterpiece.
So this season the Doofus Deck activities are going to be a traveling circus. Chris has agreed to use the Outdoor Amphitheatre for week 1. I’ll come over a little early to help set up the flags and additional TVs. Might even bring over some home made vittles. Chris says he will cook up some kind of meat - he's leaning towards dead possum. Should be a great start to the 2014 season.
And there will be lots of good games to kick off the season.
Dobby will long be in bed by the time Rutgers kicks off in Seattle on Thursday to face off against Washington State. Wazzou Head Coach is starting to hit his stride having beaten USC and Arizona on the road last year. His air attacks are good for a ton of points and Rutgers is down three players in the defensive backfield. Rutgers has an experienced senior QB in Gary Nova and a new OC in Ralph Friedgen. But the Scarlet Knights have never beaten a school from the PAC 12. I’m looking to take the over at 61.
Rock’s Wake Forest squad will have a new HC for the first time since 2000. They open in a revenge game against UL Monroe. The Warhawks upset the Deacs 21-19 last year setting in the motion the hiring of Dave Clawson. Clawson got Bowling Green on solid footing taking them to a 10-4 record and a MAC Championship. He’s decided to start a true freshman QB against a veteran Warhawk defense. ULM is starting a new QB this year too which could lead to some growing pains against a decent Wake defense. Wake is giving 2.5 on the road. I'll take the Warhaks at home in what should be a low scoring affair.
And plenty of whiskey too The two best games on Thursday are Ole Miss taking on Boise State in the Georgia Dome and a huge SEC matchup Texas A&M at South Carolina.
The last time Boise State ventured to the ATL they beat home favorite Georgia 35-21 to kick off the 2011 season. This Bronco squad is starting the season unranked for the first time since 2008 and is breaking in a new HC too. Ole Miss is a dark horse team to make it back to Atlanta for the SEC championship and features back to back highly regarded recruiting classes. I’m leaning towards giving the 10 points on Ole Miss and a 3rd year starting QB over a Bronco team in transition.
Texas A&M will be starting the post Johnny Football era by traveling to South Carolina. Manziel may have been a jerk but he did move the chains. And he needed to as the Aggie defense was awful last year. Nine starters from that ragged defense were supposed to return this year but three were dismissed from the team over the summer. South Carolina is replacing their QB Conner Shaw and the #1 overall pick in the draft DL Jadeveon Clowney. But the Cocks now just reload not rebuild and it wasn't like Clowney consistently dominated last year. They have won 11 games for three straight years. I’ll give the 10 at home against a punchless Aggie squad.
Then the fun really begins. Saturday football with the gang, booze, food and cigars. It’s been way too long.
At noon Michigan attempts to avenge their famous loss to Appalachian State.
The last time Boise State ventured to the ATL they beat home favorite Georgia 35-21 to kick off the 2011 season. This Bronco squad is starting the season unranked for the first time since 2008 and is breaking in a new HC too. Ole Miss is a dark horse team to make it back to Atlanta for the SEC championship and features back to back highly regarded recruiting classes. I’m leaning towards giving the 10 points on Ole Miss and a 3rd year starting QB over a Bronco team in transition.
Texas A&M will be starting the post Johnny Football era by traveling to South Carolina. Manziel may have been a jerk but he did move the chains. And he needed to as the Aggie defense was awful last year. Nine starters from that ragged defense were supposed to return this year but three were dismissed from the team over the summer. South Carolina is replacing their QB Conner Shaw and the #1 overall pick in the draft DL Jadeveon Clowney. But the Cocks now just reload not rebuild and it wasn't like Clowney consistently dominated last year. They have won 11 games for three straight years. I’ll give the 10 at home against a punchless Aggie squad.
Then the fun really begins. Saturday football with the gang, booze, food and cigars. It’s been way too long.
At noon Michigan attempts to avenge their famous loss to Appalachian State.
Mrs Doofus will be my designated driver That game will never get old. Still got the t-shirt.
Chris will be opening the Outdoor Ampitheatre for the 3:30 games so he will miss two of his favorite teams. Purdue hosts Western Michigan in a match up of the bad and the worse. Just not sure who is who.
A more entertaining game will be OSU hosting Navy. The Bucknuts are without Braxton Miller and Navy keeps games close with their dynamite running game so I’m leaning to taking the Middies and the 14 points (down from 17.5 before the Braxton injury).
Another interesting tussle will be Penn State trying to avenge last years loss to Central Florida. UCF will be missing 1st round draft choice QB Blake Bortles but returns a nasty defense. Penn State features a new HC in James Franklin. Franklin did a great job at Vandy and has been stellar on the recruiting trail. I like the Nits to upset the Knights over in the Emerald Isle. Get up early though - the game starts at 8:30 am eastern - 5:30 am for Joe, Laura and Shake.
At 3:30 Eastern, the doors will open. We will stumble through his gate and race (actually more of a brisk walk at our age) to get a good plastic chair.
Just in time for Notre Dame versus Rice. Mark is going to miss the festivities as he will be at Domer field. He is going to be in for a tight game. Rice is the defending CUSA champs and gets 21 points. Notre Dame gets Everett Golson back as QB but they lost a ton of players to graduation and then suspended 4 starters for the game. I’ll take the Owls and the points.
Bruce is up in Canada so I will carry the torch in rooting for Northwestern. Northwestern was snake bit last year and so should sneak up on a few teams this year. But giving Cal 10.5 may be a tall order. I’ll just go for the win.
Alabama HC Nick Saban, born in West Virginia, takes on WVU in the Georgia Dome. Seeing how WVU is led by Dana Holgersen and Bama added Lane Kiffin as OC - you have a triumvirate of asshole coaches. Saban likes to run it up in opening games winning over the last 4 years by a score of 43-9. Still, 26.5 is a bunch of points to lay. I'll take the lesser of two evils (one dick coach versus two) and take, but not root, for WVU.
Tom has a split daughter situation between Clemson and Georgia (a daughter went to each) but has decided to go with Clemson. Georgia is favored by 7.5 in a revenge matchup at home. Last year, in one of the best games of the season, Clemson's Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins outdueled Georgia's Aaron Murray and Todd Gurley in an exciting 38-35 win. Only Gurley returns this year. But 7.5 is a bit much to lay in this game even in Athens. I'll root with Tom (and one of his daughters) and go with Clemson.
The Big Guy will be on the Plains as Auburn takes on Arkansas. The defending SEC champs and 2013 Div 1A runner ups lost RB Tre Mason "That's what he do!" and OL Greg Robinson but return the electric QB Nick Marshall. Well kinda, Marshall will sitting out a spell as he was caught with some of Carl Pelini's stash. Arkansas fans are beginning to find out that Bret Bielema is a fraud as the Razorbacks plummeted to the SEC cellar. I don't expect much improvement. I'll lay the 21. War Eagle!
The night games feature Chris' Southern Cal hosting Fresno State. In one of those scheduling oddities, these teams faced off eight months ago in the Las Vegas Bowl. USC beat the bulldogs 45-20. This time around FSU will be without star QB Derek Carr who graduated to the league. Add in that FSU has lost 17 straight to ranked opponents and you end up with a 21 point spread. I'll lay the points and root with the host.
And then it will be time for the marquee game of the evening - LSU vs Wisconsin. This game will be on a neutral field as the teams will travel to Jerry's Palace in Dallas. These teams are mirror images of each other. They are both on long winning streaks for season openers (LSU 11 Wisconsin 15) and pummel non conference opponents (Wisconsin is 34-2 while LSU has the nation's longest win streak at 46). Both teams love to run the ball and both are replacing several starters in their front defensive seven. Wisconsin is replacing 6 of 7 while LSU is replacing four.
Both are deciding on who their starting QB is going to be. Wisconsin is leaning towards bringing former safety Tanner McEvoy under center while LSU is going to rotate between sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris.
I think LSU will cover the 5. They have more returning talent and I'm just a bit uncomfortable that Wisconsin is getting away from Barry ball by benching the prototypical Badger game manger QB in Joel Stave in favor of the duel threat McEvoy. I'll be rooting against my pick though.
Here are all the games this week. For first time readers - the spreadsheet shows every FBS game, time, TV network, spread, Over/Under, result from the game last year (revenge games are excellent betting opportunities), record against the spread this year (everyone is going to 0-0 in week 1 obviously), Sagarin rating and much more. Check it out!
Chris will be opening the Outdoor Ampitheatre for the 3:30 games so he will miss two of his favorite teams. Purdue hosts Western Michigan in a match up of the bad and the worse. Just not sure who is who.
A more entertaining game will be OSU hosting Navy. The Bucknuts are without Braxton Miller and Navy keeps games close with their dynamite running game so I’m leaning to taking the Middies and the 14 points (down from 17.5 before the Braxton injury).
Another interesting tussle will be Penn State trying to avenge last years loss to Central Florida. UCF will be missing 1st round draft choice QB Blake Bortles but returns a nasty defense. Penn State features a new HC in James Franklin. Franklin did a great job at Vandy and has been stellar on the recruiting trail. I like the Nits to upset the Knights over in the Emerald Isle. Get up early though - the game starts at 8:30 am eastern - 5:30 am for Joe, Laura and Shake.
At 3:30 Eastern, the doors will open. We will stumble through his gate and race (actually more of a brisk walk at our age) to get a good plastic chair.
Just in time for Notre Dame versus Rice. Mark is going to miss the festivities as he will be at Domer field. He is going to be in for a tight game. Rice is the defending CUSA champs and gets 21 points. Notre Dame gets Everett Golson back as QB but they lost a ton of players to graduation and then suspended 4 starters for the game. I’ll take the Owls and the points.
Bruce is up in Canada so I will carry the torch in rooting for Northwestern. Northwestern was snake bit last year and so should sneak up on a few teams this year. But giving Cal 10.5 may be a tall order. I’ll just go for the win.
Alabama HC Nick Saban, born in West Virginia, takes on WVU in the Georgia Dome. Seeing how WVU is led by Dana Holgersen and Bama added Lane Kiffin as OC - you have a triumvirate of asshole coaches. Saban likes to run it up in opening games winning over the last 4 years by a score of 43-9. Still, 26.5 is a bunch of points to lay. I'll take the lesser of two evils (one dick coach versus two) and take, but not root, for WVU.
Tom has a split daughter situation between Clemson and Georgia (a daughter went to each) but has decided to go with Clemson. Georgia is favored by 7.5 in a revenge matchup at home. Last year, in one of the best games of the season, Clemson's Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins outdueled Georgia's Aaron Murray and Todd Gurley in an exciting 38-35 win. Only Gurley returns this year. But 7.5 is a bit much to lay in this game even in Athens. I'll root with Tom (and one of his daughters) and go with Clemson.
The Big Guy will be on the Plains as Auburn takes on Arkansas. The defending SEC champs and 2013 Div 1A runner ups lost RB Tre Mason "That's what he do!" and OL Greg Robinson but return the electric QB Nick Marshall. Well kinda, Marshall will sitting out a spell as he was caught with some of Carl Pelini's stash. Arkansas fans are beginning to find out that Bret Bielema is a fraud as the Razorbacks plummeted to the SEC cellar. I don't expect much improvement. I'll lay the 21. War Eagle!
The night games feature Chris' Southern Cal hosting Fresno State. In one of those scheduling oddities, these teams faced off eight months ago in the Las Vegas Bowl. USC beat the bulldogs 45-20. This time around FSU will be without star QB Derek Carr who graduated to the league. Add in that FSU has lost 17 straight to ranked opponents and you end up with a 21 point spread. I'll lay the points and root with the host.
And then it will be time for the marquee game of the evening - LSU vs Wisconsin. This game will be on a neutral field as the teams will travel to Jerry's Palace in Dallas. These teams are mirror images of each other. They are both on long winning streaks for season openers (LSU 11 Wisconsin 15) and pummel non conference opponents (Wisconsin is 34-2 while LSU has the nation's longest win streak at 46). Both teams love to run the ball and both are replacing several starters in their front defensive seven. Wisconsin is replacing 6 of 7 while LSU is replacing four.
Both are deciding on who their starting QB is going to be. Wisconsin is leaning towards bringing former safety Tanner McEvoy under center while LSU is going to rotate between sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris.
I think LSU will cover the 5. They have more returning talent and I'm just a bit uncomfortable that Wisconsin is getting away from Barry ball by benching the prototypical Badger game manger QB in Joel Stave in favor of the duel threat McEvoy. I'll be rooting against my pick though.
Here are all the games this week. For first time readers - the spreadsheet shows every FBS game, time, TV network, spread, Over/Under, result from the game last year (revenge games are excellent betting opportunities), record against the spread this year (everyone is going to 0-0 in week 1 obviously), Sagarin rating and much more. Check it out!
| Week 1 Predictions |
And for the entire 2014 season click here. This file will be maintained throughout the year in the section 2014 Bettors Guide
| 2014 NCAA Div 1A Predictions |
As for the Week 1 Mega Bets - this is always a hard time to pick. Just way too many variables. New head coaches and schemes, replacing players, suspensions all play into the havoc.
Still there are angles that will be in play. Look to bet on teams that are on a mission from a let down last year (e.g. Northwestern), intact teams ready to take the next step (Marshall), pathetic teams with new head coaches that are going to play even slightly better than last year (UMass). Then again look to bet against teams that lost a great HC (Louisville) or a ton of starting talent (Texas A&M).
With that in mind I'll venture (meekly) out to start the 2014 Mega Bet Campaign with just one Mega Bet
Week 1 Mega Bet
Nebraska -22.5 vs Florida Atlantic
This was supposed to be the Pelini brother bowl until Carl got caught toking on some illegal.
Brother Bo’s Nebraska team features a Heisman hopeful in RB Ameer Abdullah and a defense that returns its top five defenders.
FAU has a very good QB in Jaquez Johnson who led an attack that averaged 37.8 points per game over their last four games. And the secondary that finished 3rd overall last year returns. But FAU is breaking in two new offensive tackles which means Nebraska's DL will be camped in the backfield all day long.
Florida Atlantic is on a current 17-5 ATS run over its last 22 games. However, in the handful of games against marquee schools over the past three seasons and the Owls haven't fared well. In road games against Florida, Michigan State, Auburn (2x), Georgia, Alabama, and Miami; FAU is 0-7 SU - losing by an average score of 41-9
Nebraska hasn't lost a home opener since 1985. They are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 home openers, winning by an average of 30.2 PPG. They have been profitable as a heavy favorite, going 8-1 as a favorite of 20 or more points.
I'll take the the Huskers as Bo runs up the score on FAU for firing his brother.
For the Week 1 Point Whore Parlay (taking dogs of at least 10 points on a parlay card) - I'll go with
Rice +21.0 @ Notre Dame
SMU +33.0 @ Baylor
Georgia Southern +21.5 @ NC State
Remember the GO JUMBO weekend is Nov 15th at the Westgate (former LVH hotel)
Still there are angles that will be in play. Look to bet on teams that are on a mission from a let down last year (e.g. Northwestern), intact teams ready to take the next step (Marshall), pathetic teams with new head coaches that are going to play even slightly better than last year (UMass). Then again look to bet against teams that lost a great HC (Louisville) or a ton of starting talent (Texas A&M).
With that in mind I'll venture (meekly) out to start the 2014 Mega Bet Campaign with just one Mega Bet
Week 1 Mega Bet
Nebraska -22.5 vs Florida Atlantic
This was supposed to be the Pelini brother bowl until Carl got caught toking on some illegal.
Brother Bo’s Nebraska team features a Heisman hopeful in RB Ameer Abdullah and a defense that returns its top five defenders.
FAU has a very good QB in Jaquez Johnson who led an attack that averaged 37.8 points per game over their last four games. And the secondary that finished 3rd overall last year returns. But FAU is breaking in two new offensive tackles which means Nebraska's DL will be camped in the backfield all day long.
Florida Atlantic is on a current 17-5 ATS run over its last 22 games. However, in the handful of games against marquee schools over the past three seasons and the Owls haven't fared well. In road games against Florida, Michigan State, Auburn (2x), Georgia, Alabama, and Miami; FAU is 0-7 SU - losing by an average score of 41-9
Nebraska hasn't lost a home opener since 1985. They are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 home openers, winning by an average of 30.2 PPG. They have been profitable as a heavy favorite, going 8-1 as a favorite of 20 or more points.
I'll take the the Huskers as Bo runs up the score on FAU for firing his brother.
For the Week 1 Point Whore Parlay (taking dogs of at least 10 points on a parlay card) - I'll go with
Rice +21.0 @ Notre Dame
SMU +33.0 @ Baylor
Georgia Southern +21.5 @ NC State
Remember the GO JUMBO weekend is Nov 15th at the Westgate (former LVH hotel)
