Irish Soldiers don't last long Chris sent over a text. You up for some BBall tomorrow?
You bet! It had been too long since the gang had gotten together (at least as far as inviting me)
Chris was starting March Madness by opening up the Outdoor Ampitheatre for the ACC, Big 12 championship games and the Big 10 semifinals. Since St Patty’s Day was just around the corner I brought over some Irish Soldiers and Heroes whiskey left over from last year’s tasting on Dan’s Deck. It was gone before the pizza arrived.
By the time I got there Purdue was leading Wisconsin by three at the half. It didn’t last. The Badgers ended up blowing out the Boilers by 20. Chris didn’t blame me for the melt down, thankfully.
Then it was time for the big game – MSU Maryland. Ellis was harping before the game that Maryland was really an ACC school and the ACC would win the Big Ten and the ACC. That’s when the Buffalo Wild Wings commercial came on. “Can Ellis come over?” “Ellis?? Uh Uh”
You bet! It had been too long since the gang had gotten together (at least as far as inviting me)
Chris was starting March Madness by opening up the Outdoor Ampitheatre for the ACC, Big 12 championship games and the Big 10 semifinals. Since St Patty’s Day was just around the corner I brought over some Irish Soldiers and Heroes whiskey left over from last year’s tasting on Dan’s Deck. It was gone before the pizza arrived.
By the time I got there Purdue was leading Wisconsin by three at the half. It didn’t last. The Badgers ended up blowing out the Boilers by 20. Chris didn’t blame me for the melt down, thankfully.
Then it was time for the big game – MSU Maryland. Ellis was harping before the game that Maryland was really an ACC school and the ACC would win the Big Ten and the ACC. That’s when the Buffalo Wild Wings commercial came on. “Can Ellis come over?” “Ellis?? Uh Uh”
Duke - I am your father! Chris went in to get a pop bottle for Ellis to play with.
State came from 16 down early to pull out a 62-58. It’s March folks – time for State to start kicking it in.
North Carolina was the night cap game. The Tar Heels got blown out by Notre Dame 90-82. If I remember correctly Notre Dame was a Big East team. That would mean that the ACC, rather than winning two championships didn’t win one.
Now its time for the Big Dance. March Madness is here. Time to come up with your excuses for missing work (vasectomies skyrocket during this week), get the gang together at your local watering hole, grab some beers and watch your favorite teams.
But the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball now you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers.
So, like the rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to Indianapolis. Which, by the way, the NCAA has mandated that Indy hosts the Final Four every 5 years.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds and probably all of the No. 2 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. It may happen someday, but no sense blowing your bracket this year waiting for that to happen. The No. 2 seeds have taken a few hits over last two seasons Two No. 2 seeds lost in 2012 (Duke and Missouri) In 2013, No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast advanced all the way to the Sweet 16 after beating Georgetown in the first game.
4. And 3 seeds are falling to 14 seeds too. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. In 2014, Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook.
State came from 16 down early to pull out a 62-58. It’s March folks – time for State to start kicking it in.
North Carolina was the night cap game. The Tar Heels got blown out by Notre Dame 90-82. If I remember correctly Notre Dame was a Big East team. That would mean that the ACC, rather than winning two championships didn’t win one.
Now its time for the Big Dance. March Madness is here. Time to come up with your excuses for missing work (vasectomies skyrocket during this week), get the gang together at your local watering hole, grab some beers and watch your favorite teams.
But the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball now you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers.
So, like the rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to Indianapolis. Which, by the way, the NCAA has mandated that Indy hosts the Final Four every 5 years.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds and probably all of the No. 2 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. It may happen someday, but no sense blowing your bracket this year waiting for that to happen. The No. 2 seeds have taken a few hits over last two seasons Two No. 2 seeds lost in 2012 (Duke and Missouri) In 2013, No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast advanced all the way to the Sweet 16 after beating Georgetown in the first game.
4. And 3 seeds are falling to 14 seeds too. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. In 2014, Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook.
Watch out for the Crimson 5. By the way, Harvard is on a roll – not only did they win as a 14 seed in 2013 but they won as a 12 seed last year. This year they are a 13 seed taking on North Carolina. We may not see Ellis for a month if Harvard wins.
6. The real upset potential starts at the No. 5 seeds. The last two years, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. Just boot em after that. They all lost in the next round.
7. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last five Tournaments, nine of the 36 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
8. Don’t fall in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 56 Final Four teams, 46 were top-four seeds.
9. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 20 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been 14. If you are 10 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 21 years (though it did happen in 2011). That said, the last two years the number has been 18. Lower seeds are making more runs.
10. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams had trouble clinching a Tourney bid because they couldn’t win consistently. Teams from major conferences that are bubble teams are bubble teams because they suck. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous. This year’s power conference bubble teams to avoid - UCLA and Indiana
11. Watch out for teams that fading down the stretch. If they limped into the tourney they are going to limp right out. On the flip side, give credit to teams that got better as the season went along.
Teams that faded: Iowa and Oklahoma State
Teams coming in hot: SMU (after getting snubbed last year), Oregon, Iowa State and Notre Dame
12. Find balance on offense and defense. Defense wins championship in football. Not so much in basketball. Basketball is more about balance. The champion for 10 of the last 11 years (UConn was the exception last year) has ranked in the top 20 in both of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. This year seven teams earned that ranking – Kentucky, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga, Utah, Northern Iowa and Wichita State. Kentucky is by far the best with a 5 ranking on offense and 2 ranking on defense.
Taking a look at this years tourney - here's what I am looking at.
1. You have two choices - either you go with Kentucky to win it all or pick an upset in a bid to win your pool. A Kentucky fan at work put it best. He said "This is how you make out your bracket" He then went up to the dry erase board and put up a 2 team bracket. On top he had Kentucky and underneath he put Your Team. The winner was Kentucky. Yup - that about sums it up. It really is a two team field. Kentucky and everyone else.
FiveThirtyEight.com calculated everyone's chances to win it all. Kentucky was 41%. That implies that there is a 59% chance they don't win it all.
So who are the teams with the best shot? Nova was given the best chance at 11%, then Wiscy and Zona at 10% each followed by Virginia at 7% and Duke at 6%. That leaves everyone else at a combined 15%. For the record UNC was 1% and State at <1%.
If the odds say it's more likely that Kentucky won't win it all - I'm going to go with someone else to cut down the nets in Indy.
2. The next biggest question is who do you take in the West - Wisconsin or Arizona. The Badgers may have locked up a #1 seed prior to the Big Ten championship game but that is because the were given the toughest #2 seed by far. The Wildcats are 18-0 against RPI top 100 teams and are just abusing everyone right now.
3. In the South - Duke or Gonzaga? Duke has the starting talent to win it all but not the depth. If they meet, can the Zags run by a gassed Blue Devil team. Or can a red hot Iowa State team take down both?
4. For the East - if your not taking State then the only viable options are Villanova and Virginia. The rest will fade by the wayside.
5. Got to take some upsets so I'll go with
13. Eastern Washington over 4. Georgetown. The Hoyas usually stumble and the Eagles are a great 3 point shooting team
12. Stephen F Austin over 5. Utah. SFA was a 12 seed winner last year and returns all five starters. They are on a 28-1 win streak while Utah is 3-4
12. Wofford over 5. Arkansas. Love those 12/5 upsets. Wofford on a tear going 15-1. Arkansas is erratic
13. Harvard over 4. North Carolina. Mr H. helps tutor the Doofus' kids. Ellis plays with pop bottles.
So when it's all said and done, for my non MSU bracket I'm going to go with a theme. I'm having a three Wildcat Final Four, Kentucky, Villanova and Arizona. There is a Wildcat in the East bracket too but I just can't a 10 seed in Davidson to the Final Four so I'll go with Iowa State
So factoring it all in I went with a lot of high seeds this year. Here is one of my brackets for this year’s
tournament.
6. The real upset potential starts at the No. 5 seeds. The last two years, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. Just boot em after that. They all lost in the next round.
7. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last five Tournaments, nine of the 36 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
8. Don’t fall in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 56 Final Four teams, 46 were top-four seeds.
9. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 20 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been 14. If you are 10 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 21 years (though it did happen in 2011). That said, the last two years the number has been 18. Lower seeds are making more runs.
10. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams had trouble clinching a Tourney bid because they couldn’t win consistently. Teams from major conferences that are bubble teams are bubble teams because they suck. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous. This year’s power conference bubble teams to avoid - UCLA and Indiana
11. Watch out for teams that fading down the stretch. If they limped into the tourney they are going to limp right out. On the flip side, give credit to teams that got better as the season went along.
Teams that faded: Iowa and Oklahoma State
Teams coming in hot: SMU (after getting snubbed last year), Oregon, Iowa State and Notre Dame
12. Find balance on offense and defense. Defense wins championship in football. Not so much in basketball. Basketball is more about balance. The champion for 10 of the last 11 years (UConn was the exception last year) has ranked in the top 20 in both of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. This year seven teams earned that ranking – Kentucky, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga, Utah, Northern Iowa and Wichita State. Kentucky is by far the best with a 5 ranking on offense and 2 ranking on defense.
Taking a look at this years tourney - here's what I am looking at.
1. You have two choices - either you go with Kentucky to win it all or pick an upset in a bid to win your pool. A Kentucky fan at work put it best. He said "This is how you make out your bracket" He then went up to the dry erase board and put up a 2 team bracket. On top he had Kentucky and underneath he put Your Team. The winner was Kentucky. Yup - that about sums it up. It really is a two team field. Kentucky and everyone else.
FiveThirtyEight.com calculated everyone's chances to win it all. Kentucky was 41%. That implies that there is a 59% chance they don't win it all.
So who are the teams with the best shot? Nova was given the best chance at 11%, then Wiscy and Zona at 10% each followed by Virginia at 7% and Duke at 6%. That leaves everyone else at a combined 15%. For the record UNC was 1% and State at <1%.
If the odds say it's more likely that Kentucky won't win it all - I'm going to go with someone else to cut down the nets in Indy.
2. The next biggest question is who do you take in the West - Wisconsin or Arizona. The Badgers may have locked up a #1 seed prior to the Big Ten championship game but that is because the were given the toughest #2 seed by far. The Wildcats are 18-0 against RPI top 100 teams and are just abusing everyone right now.
3. In the South - Duke or Gonzaga? Duke has the starting talent to win it all but not the depth. If they meet, can the Zags run by a gassed Blue Devil team. Or can a red hot Iowa State team take down both?
4. For the East - if your not taking State then the only viable options are Villanova and Virginia. The rest will fade by the wayside.
5. Got to take some upsets so I'll go with
13. Eastern Washington over 4. Georgetown. The Hoyas usually stumble and the Eagles are a great 3 point shooting team
12. Stephen F Austin over 5. Utah. SFA was a 12 seed winner last year and returns all five starters. They are on a 28-1 win streak while Utah is 3-4
12. Wofford over 5. Arkansas. Love those 12/5 upsets. Wofford on a tear going 15-1. Arkansas is erratic
13. Harvard over 4. North Carolina. Mr H. helps tutor the Doofus' kids. Ellis plays with pop bottles.
So when it's all said and done, for my non MSU bracket I'm going to go with a theme. I'm having a three Wildcat Final Four, Kentucky, Villanova and Arizona. There is a Wildcat in the East bracket too but I just can't a 10 seed in Davidson to the Final Four so I'll go with Iowa State
So factoring it all in I went with a lot of high seeds this year. Here is one of my brackets for this year’s
tournament.
Wildcats to win it all!
Remember, the 2015 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 7th at the Westgate Resort
Remember, the 2015 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 7th at the Westgate Resort
