Screw parity - the big boys are back The NFL is down to the Final Four for 2014. In some ways it’s the last weekend of real football before the silly season of the Super Bowl ramps up.
And for all the talk about parity in the NFL, the cream always seems to rise to the top. Three of the four quarterbacks playing have already won at least one Super Bowl. Only Indy’s Andrew Luck has not and I’m pretty sure he will get one before he is done.
And Indy was good prior to Luck (Peyton Manning can do that for you) as this is the Colts 3rd visit to AFC Championship game in the last eight seasons.
Seattle is trying to be the first team to repeat in the Super Bowl since New England did it back in the 2004 season.
New England has dominated the AFC as this is their 3rd visit to this game in the last four years and 6th out of the last 14.
As for Green Bay, the boys from Titletown return for the 3rd time in the last eight years.
In fact, these teams are so dominant that only three Super Bowls over the last 14 have not included one of these four teams. The NFL’s royalty is on full display this weekend.
The games start with
And for all the talk about parity in the NFL, the cream always seems to rise to the top. Three of the four quarterbacks playing have already won at least one Super Bowl. Only Indy’s Andrew Luck has not and I’m pretty sure he will get one before he is done.
And Indy was good prior to Luck (Peyton Manning can do that for you) as this is the Colts 3rd visit to AFC Championship game in the last eight seasons.
Seattle is trying to be the first team to repeat in the Super Bowl since New England did it back in the 2004 season.
New England has dominated the AFC as this is their 3rd visit to this game in the last four years and 6th out of the last 14.
As for Green Bay, the boys from Titletown return for the 3rd time in the last eight years.
In fact, these teams are so dominant that only three Super Bowls over the last 14 have not included one of these four teams. The NFL’s royalty is on full display this weekend.
The games start with
Rodgers plays better outside the pocket Seattle -7.5 vs Green Bay – This is a large spread to give Aaron Rodgers (in fact, it's the most points he has ever received) but he is hurt worse than everyone thought coming into last weekend. Until late in the 3rd quarter last week he was struggling. Then, he caught fire and gutted out a 26-21 win.
But coming back against a Dallas defense is one thing. Playing good for a quarter won’t cut it against Seattle.
With a torn calf muscle, Rodgers can’t get the ball deep. He relies on escaping the pocket and making plays. He looks deep first and then looks underneath and relying on getting YAC. Green Bay was 3rd in the league in YAC with almost 54% of their total passing yards being after the catch. Now they face a Seahawk defense that was 2nd in allowing the fewest YAC.
Seattle was gashed a bit by Carolina last week when CB Byron Maxwell didn’t play due to shortness of breath - most likely due to a cold or flu. Cam Newton abused backup CB Tharold Simon. Simon allowed 10 catches on 10 attempts for 114 yards and 2 TDs. The rest of the defense allowed 77 yards passing total. Maxwell is expected to play so Rodgers’ chances to connect deep are limited.
But coming back against a Dallas defense is one thing. Playing good for a quarter won’t cut it against Seattle.
With a torn calf muscle, Rodgers can’t get the ball deep. He relies on escaping the pocket and making plays. He looks deep first and then looks underneath and relying on getting YAC. Green Bay was 3rd in the league in YAC with almost 54% of their total passing yards being after the catch. Now they face a Seahawk defense that was 2nd in allowing the fewest YAC.
Seattle was gashed a bit by Carolina last week when CB Byron Maxwell didn’t play due to shortness of breath - most likely due to a cold or flu. Cam Newton abused backup CB Tharold Simon. Simon allowed 10 catches on 10 attempts for 114 yards and 2 TDs. The rest of the defense allowed 77 yards passing total. Maxwell is expected to play so Rodgers’ chances to connect deep are limited.
Russell Wilson was perfect on 3rd downs last week A hobbling Rodgers will be under pressure from a ferocious Seattle pass rush, won’t be able to target receivers deep and will find his dump offs easily taken down.
And just forget about trying to establish the run. Seattle was third overall in rush defense. The last time these teams met, Eddie Lacy was held to 34 yards on 12 carries.
Seattle’s offense is coming off a great game against a solid Carolina defense. And it was through the air this time. Russell Wilson was brilliant. No more so than on third down when he went a perfect 8-8, 199 yards and 3 TDS.
It will back to the ground game for the Seahawks. Carolina was able to limit Marshawn Lynch to 59 yards last week but he will find it easier going against a Green Bay defense that ranked 23rd against the rush. Last week, Dallas’ DeMarco Murray had 138 yards and would have had more if he hadn’t fumbled with an open field ahead of him. Skittles won’t make that mistake.
The trends tend to favor Seattle. Green Bay is a disaster as an underdog going 1-10-1 when getting points. Granted a lot of those situations were when Rodgers was out last year but is this really the true A Rod playing this weekend. Seattle, meanwhile is on a 7 game winning streak ATS.
One stat that favors Green Bay is that in rematches in the same season (not within the same division) at the same place - the loser is 28-14 ATS. Green Bay lost to Seattle in Seattle 36-16 back on week 1. Another is that underdogs of 7.0 or more are 9-3 ATS in the championship games.
That said, Seattle is dominant at the Link, going 32-12 ATS (12-1 when favored by less than 10 points)
I hate to lay the hook on this game but Seattle is the way to go. I'll put lay a Mega Bet on Seattle. I'll take the under of 46.5 too but no quatloos.
And just forget about trying to establish the run. Seattle was third overall in rush defense. The last time these teams met, Eddie Lacy was held to 34 yards on 12 carries.
Seattle’s offense is coming off a great game against a solid Carolina defense. And it was through the air this time. Russell Wilson was brilliant. No more so than on third down when he went a perfect 8-8, 199 yards and 3 TDS.
It will back to the ground game for the Seahawks. Carolina was able to limit Marshawn Lynch to 59 yards last week but he will find it easier going against a Green Bay defense that ranked 23rd against the rush. Last week, Dallas’ DeMarco Murray had 138 yards and would have had more if he hadn’t fumbled with an open field ahead of him. Skittles won’t make that mistake.
The trends tend to favor Seattle. Green Bay is a disaster as an underdog going 1-10-1 when getting points. Granted a lot of those situations were when Rodgers was out last year but is this really the true A Rod playing this weekend. Seattle, meanwhile is on a 7 game winning streak ATS.
One stat that favors Green Bay is that in rematches in the same season (not within the same division) at the same place - the loser is 28-14 ATS. Green Bay lost to Seattle in Seattle 36-16 back on week 1. Another is that underdogs of 7.0 or more are 9-3 ATS in the championship games.
That said, Seattle is dominant at the Link, going 32-12 ATS (12-1 when favored by less than 10 points)
I hate to lay the hook on this game but Seattle is the way to go. I'll put lay a Mega Bet on Seattle. I'll take the under of 46.5 too but no quatloos.
Gronkowski will have a huge impact on this game New England -6.5 vs Indianapolis – Will Andrew Luck finally make it to the pantheon of quarterbacks? Last week he defeated one hall of fame quarterback on the road. He gets another chance on Sunday.
He’ll need to do better than he has in the past. Luck has lost all three games to the Patriots by and average of 48-22.
The last time these teams met, New England RB Jonas Gray destroyed the Colts, running for 206 yards and four TDs. Belicheck was so impressed that he benched Gray for the rest of the season after missing a team practice. It wasn’t who was running, it was the OL that gutted the Colts.
That OL just took a big hit last week when C Bryan Stork went down with an injury. The center is crucial in the running game so his absence will limit the New England ground game. Another limiting factor is the return of DL Arthur Jones who missed the previous week 11 game. Without Jones, the Colts allowed 4.7 yards per rush. With him, it dropped to 3.7
But it’s not the rushing game that drives the Patriots. Last week they set a record low for rushing in a playoff game (14 yards) while still winning the game. This game will come down to whether Indianapolis can contain TE Rob Gronkowski.
The Patriots will still get their yards on the ground making Indy bring up the safeties and clearing room for TE Rob Gronkowski. In the last game, Gronk had 71 yards and a TD. Jones won’t go off like he did in the previous game meaning Gronkowski will be targeted more especially on third down. Last week, on two critical third and longs, Brady hit Gronkowski for first downs. Both drives ended in TDs.
Indianapolis struggles in covering TEs allowing 10 TDs on the year, 7th worst in the league.
He’ll need to do better than he has in the past. Luck has lost all three games to the Patriots by and average of 48-22.
The last time these teams met, New England RB Jonas Gray destroyed the Colts, running for 206 yards and four TDs. Belicheck was so impressed that he benched Gray for the rest of the season after missing a team practice. It wasn’t who was running, it was the OL that gutted the Colts.
That OL just took a big hit last week when C Bryan Stork went down with an injury. The center is crucial in the running game so his absence will limit the New England ground game. Another limiting factor is the return of DL Arthur Jones who missed the previous week 11 game. Without Jones, the Colts allowed 4.7 yards per rush. With him, it dropped to 3.7
But it’s not the rushing game that drives the Patriots. Last week they set a record low for rushing in a playoff game (14 yards) while still winning the game. This game will come down to whether Indianapolis can contain TE Rob Gronkowski.
The Patriots will still get their yards on the ground making Indy bring up the safeties and clearing room for TE Rob Gronkowski. In the last game, Gronk had 71 yards and a TD. Jones won’t go off like he did in the previous game meaning Gronkowski will be targeted more especially on third down. Last week, on two critical third and longs, Brady hit Gronkowski for first downs. Both drives ended in TDs.
Indianapolis struggles in covering TEs allowing 10 TDs on the year, 7th worst in the league.
As will the Indy Tight Ends Luck has been brilliant so far in his career, unless he’s playing New England. Belicheck has his number. When facing the Patriots he has 6 TDs against 8 picks. Against the rest of the league he is 80 TDs 35 picks - more than twice as many TDs as picks.
Indianapolis will try to force the run. They won’t have much success. In the previous matchup, Indy had only 19 yards rushing – 15 came from Luck.
And Darelle Revis will blanket Luck’s favorite receiver, TY Hilton. Hilton had a season worst 24 yards against the Pats.
Luck will then go to his tight ends which should have some success. New England was third worst in covering tight ends this year allowing 1,006 yards. TE Coby Fleener led the Colts in receiving against New England with 144 yards. It won’t be enough though.
The trends are mixed. The Patriots dominated the Colts and are 12-5 ATS. Indy can match that as they are 12-5-1 ATS. And that 28-14 ATS repeat game streak works in their favor too.
I am torn in this game. I wanted to root for the Colts but the analysis favors the Patriots.
I’ll take the Patriots but I’m not putting any quatloos on it. I’ll root for the Colts and the under of 54 too.
Remember, the 2015 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 7th at the Westgate Resort.
Indianapolis will try to force the run. They won’t have much success. In the previous matchup, Indy had only 19 yards rushing – 15 came from Luck.
And Darelle Revis will blanket Luck’s favorite receiver, TY Hilton. Hilton had a season worst 24 yards against the Pats.
Luck will then go to his tight ends which should have some success. New England was third worst in covering tight ends this year allowing 1,006 yards. TE Coby Fleener led the Colts in receiving against New England with 144 yards. It won’t be enough though.
The trends are mixed. The Patriots dominated the Colts and are 12-5 ATS. Indy can match that as they are 12-5-1 ATS. And that 28-14 ATS repeat game streak works in their favor too.
I am torn in this game. I wanted to root for the Colts but the analysis favors the Patriots.
I’ll take the Patriots but I’m not putting any quatloos on it. I’ll root for the Colts and the under of 54 too.
Remember, the 2015 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 7th at the Westgate Resort.
