My prayer was answered last week when the head pastor returned.
When it came around for prayers this week I contemplated doubling down and putting in one for the Super Bowl. Of course, that would put me in the queue with millions of others on both sides of the wager. So I started wondering how the Lord resolves this dilemma. Does he grant his influence based on the number and intensity of the prayers.
Perhaps he does as physicists theorize and grants alternative realities generating an infinite number multiple universes. I can win and others betting against me also win in a different spontaneous universe.
I was out of my element both theologically and scientifically. Good
thing I wasn’t hung over – my head would be pounding. So no prayers on the Super Bowl – the outcome will not be decided based on divine intervention on my behalf. I did lob one in for Mrs Doofus’ hand to heal from surgery just before time ran out – beat the buzzer - whew.
Part of the reason I’m not looking for guidance from above is that this Super Bowl is relatively easy to pick.
When the initial spread came out it was anywhere from Seattle favored by to two to a pick ‘em. The line quickly jumped to Denver -2.5. Why – because the public loves Peyton Manning. Ask any casual football fan who they
think will win and it’s inevitably THE BRONCOS!! PEYTON MANNING IS SO GOOD!! Yada yada yada.
Bull crap. There is a reason Vegas wins so much money. It’s not, as commonly thought, that they have even money on each side and just take the spiff. Nope – it’s because they bet against the public. And the public has been
especially dumb this year. Vegas is on pace to have their second best year since 2000.
Don’t believe me – 70% of the money is on Denver. And the public keeps pounding the Broncos. Vegas and the sharps are loving it.
What if I told you that since 2000 the better quarterback is 4-7 straight up and 2-9 against the spread. It’s the better defenses that win Super Bowls. Who can forget the “best team of all time” the unstoppable 18-0 Patriots
losing the Giants. The better QB? Brady. The winner? The better defense in New York
Denver’s offense is nowhere near as good as that Pats team and Seattle’s defense is better than those Giants.
Here’s another stat – The NFL MVP (almost always a QB) is 6-11 straight up and 5-10-2 against the spread. The public overrates the quarterback in the Super Bowl
And consider this stat. This is the fifth time the number 1 offense (Denver) has squared off against the number 1 defense (Seattle). Results – the number one defense is 3-1. That may not be large sample size so how about this. The better defense is 39-8 in all the Super Bowls. 39-8! And the better defense is getting points.
One more stat – teams with the better strength of schedule are 7-3 against the spread this year. Last year they went 8-2-1. That’s 15-5-1 over the last two years. Who has the better strength of schedule this year. You got it. Seattle was 8th, Denver 17th. Now whose 15-3 record looks better?
When it came around for prayers this week I contemplated doubling down and putting in one for the Super Bowl. Of course, that would put me in the queue with millions of others on both sides of the wager. So I started wondering how the Lord resolves this dilemma. Does he grant his influence based on the number and intensity of the prayers.
Perhaps he does as physicists theorize and grants alternative realities generating an infinite number multiple universes. I can win and others betting against me also win in a different spontaneous universe.
I was out of my element both theologically and scientifically. Good
thing I wasn’t hung over – my head would be pounding. So no prayers on the Super Bowl – the outcome will not be decided based on divine intervention on my behalf. I did lob one in for Mrs Doofus’ hand to heal from surgery just before time ran out – beat the buzzer - whew.
Part of the reason I’m not looking for guidance from above is that this Super Bowl is relatively easy to pick.
When the initial spread came out it was anywhere from Seattle favored by to two to a pick ‘em. The line quickly jumped to Denver -2.5. Why – because the public loves Peyton Manning. Ask any casual football fan who they
think will win and it’s inevitably THE BRONCOS!! PEYTON MANNING IS SO GOOD!! Yada yada yada.
Bull crap. There is a reason Vegas wins so much money. It’s not, as commonly thought, that they have even money on each side and just take the spiff. Nope – it’s because they bet against the public. And the public has been
especially dumb this year. Vegas is on pace to have their second best year since 2000.
Don’t believe me – 70% of the money is on Denver. And the public keeps pounding the Broncos. Vegas and the sharps are loving it.
What if I told you that since 2000 the better quarterback is 4-7 straight up and 2-9 against the spread. It’s the better defenses that win Super Bowls. Who can forget the “best team of all time” the unstoppable 18-0 Patriots
losing the Giants. The better QB? Brady. The winner? The better defense in New York
Denver’s offense is nowhere near as good as that Pats team and Seattle’s defense is better than those Giants.
Here’s another stat – The NFL MVP (almost always a QB) is 6-11 straight up and 5-10-2 against the spread. The public overrates the quarterback in the Super Bowl
And consider this stat. This is the fifth time the number 1 offense (Denver) has squared off against the number 1 defense (Seattle). Results – the number one defense is 3-1. That may not be large sample size so how about this. The better defense is 39-8 in all the Super Bowls. 39-8! And the better defense is getting points.
One more stat – teams with the better strength of schedule are 7-3 against the spread this year. Last year they went 8-2-1. That’s 15-5-1 over the last two years. Who has the better strength of schedule this year. You got it. Seattle was 8th, Denver 17th. Now whose 15-3 record looks better?
As far as matchups – Denver has been going more and more to the run as the temperature has dropped during the playoffs. Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball have had some pretty good outings in the playoffs. But Seattle just stuffed a much better Frank Gore to 14 yards last week. With temps in the 30’s
and gusty winds, Denver won’t be able to use the ground game to open the passing lanes.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson has tailed off during the playoffs. For the regular season, Wilson had a QB rating of 101.2. During the playoffs he has dropped to 89.2 and has 6 straight games under 200 yards passing. He’s struggling but the Seahawk offense is all about Marshawn Lynch. There is a lot of chatter about how Denver has only allowed one runner to go over 100 yards. Well, San Francisco has a much better run defense and Lynch wore the Niners down for 109 yards. All time, in the playoffs, Lynch is averaging 5.1 yards per rush. This year he is keeping pace at 5.0 yards per rush. He will rack up the yards against a depleted Bronco defense missing Von Miller and Chris Harris.
I’m going to go with the under (48.0) is this game too. I’ll take Wilson’s struggles, Denver trying to establish the run, the weather and Lynch getting it going late as factors to keep the game close and low scoring. Those and one weird trend. The last five Super Bowls have gone over, under, over, under, over. Guess the under is due. That and Seattle has gone under 7 straight games while Denver has gone under 5 of their last 7.
Some other stats that will have little bearing on the game but are fun nonetheless. Not one player on the Seattle roster has ever played in a Super Bowl. Then again they are a very young team. Meanwhile 4 players for Denver have played in the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is 1-1. The other 3 are 0-4 in the Big Game.
The winner of the coin toss is 23-24 in the Super Bowl. Guess the coin toss is not a predictor of the game.
The team with the fewest turnovers is 35-3. Duh. No Kidding. But some announcer is sure to mention it like it’s some big revelation.
And there is much more to bet on during the game. Much much more. The Super Bowl is the king of the prop bets. You can bet on everything from before the game - how long it will take Renee Wilson to sing the National Anthem
(over/under 2 minutes 2 seconds); to the coin toss to open the game (Pick em) to the color of the Gatorade at the end of the game (green and blue are 8/1).
You can bet who will score first (Marshawn is set at 5/1) to who will score last (Montee Ball is 12/1)
How many times will Peyton Manning say Omaha! (O/U 28.5)
Then there are the cross over bets. Betting players in one sport against another. Nick is looking at – number of goals by Olivier Giroud (Arsenal) vs interceptions thrown Russell Wilson. Woz is thinking about Red Wings goals (versus Capitals) vs Seattle rushing TDs (PK)
If you are watching Big Ten Basketball while waiting for the game to start you can wager the total points scored by Michigan, Indiana, Purdue and Penn State combined versus Peytons passing yards (plus 0.5)
For you golfers, how about Rory McIlroy’s fourth round score versus Marshawn Lynch’s rushing yards (-19.5)
For all the prop bets at the LVH click here
and gusty winds, Denver won’t be able to use the ground game to open the passing lanes.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson has tailed off during the playoffs. For the regular season, Wilson had a QB rating of 101.2. During the playoffs he has dropped to 89.2 and has 6 straight games under 200 yards passing. He’s struggling but the Seahawk offense is all about Marshawn Lynch. There is a lot of chatter about how Denver has only allowed one runner to go over 100 yards. Well, San Francisco has a much better run defense and Lynch wore the Niners down for 109 yards. All time, in the playoffs, Lynch is averaging 5.1 yards per rush. This year he is keeping pace at 5.0 yards per rush. He will rack up the yards against a depleted Bronco defense missing Von Miller and Chris Harris.
I’m going to go with the under (48.0) is this game too. I’ll take Wilson’s struggles, Denver trying to establish the run, the weather and Lynch getting it going late as factors to keep the game close and low scoring. Those and one weird trend. The last five Super Bowls have gone over, under, over, under, over. Guess the under is due. That and Seattle has gone under 7 straight games while Denver has gone under 5 of their last 7.
Some other stats that will have little bearing on the game but are fun nonetheless. Not one player on the Seattle roster has ever played in a Super Bowl. Then again they are a very young team. Meanwhile 4 players for Denver have played in the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is 1-1. The other 3 are 0-4 in the Big Game.
The winner of the coin toss is 23-24 in the Super Bowl. Guess the coin toss is not a predictor of the game.
The team with the fewest turnovers is 35-3. Duh. No Kidding. But some announcer is sure to mention it like it’s some big revelation.
And there is much more to bet on during the game. Much much more. The Super Bowl is the king of the prop bets. You can bet on everything from before the game - how long it will take Renee Wilson to sing the National Anthem
(over/under 2 minutes 2 seconds); to the coin toss to open the game (Pick em) to the color of the Gatorade at the end of the game (green and blue are 8/1).
You can bet who will score first (Marshawn is set at 5/1) to who will score last (Montee Ball is 12/1)
How many times will Peyton Manning say Omaha! (O/U 28.5)
Then there are the cross over bets. Betting players in one sport against another. Nick is looking at – number of goals by Olivier Giroud (Arsenal) vs interceptions thrown Russell Wilson. Woz is thinking about Red Wings goals (versus Capitals) vs Seattle rushing TDs (PK)
If you are watching Big Ten Basketball while waiting for the game to start you can wager the total points scored by Michigan, Indiana, Purdue and Penn State combined versus Peytons passing yards (plus 0.5)
For you golfers, how about Rory McIlroy’s fourth round score versus Marshawn Lynch’s rushing yards (-19.5)
For all the prop bets at the LVH click here
| lvh-super-book-2014.pdf |
And for all you fans trying to remember every Super Bowl score click here. The scores were much easier to remember in the 70’s. I say it's because there are so many more games since then. Mrs Doofus says I'm just getting old while the gang blames the substances used to round out the decade,
| super_bowl_betting_history.pdf |
I’ll be heading over to Chris’ to watch the game. He put in a new kitchen and living room and is itching to show it off to the neighborhood. He smartly will have the Outdoor Ampitheatre open during the game.
Amazingly, families are invited. My family is usually not invited to activities. We put too big a dent in the provisions. Oh well, everyone else better get their early while there are still some good eats. As soon as I get there though I’ll looking for the first opportunity to ditch ‘em and head outside to watch the game as it was meant to be seen – with a cigar in one hand, whiskey in the other, surrounded by friends (and a few family members too.)
Amazingly, families are invited. My family is usually not invited to activities. We put too big a dent in the provisions. Oh well, everyone else better get their early while there are still some good eats. As soon as I get there though I’ll looking for the first opportunity to ditch ‘em and head outside to watch the game as it was meant to be seen – with a cigar in one hand, whiskey in the other, surrounded by friends (and a few family members too.)
