
I’m only writing this so I don’t get fined. OK, enough about Beast Mode interviews, psi, ball boys and all that noise. It’s time for America’s biggest party. Chris is hosting at the Indoor Ampitheatre again this year. Wives and kids are invited which means that the usual amount of partying by the gang may be a bit more muted. Mrs. Doofus is taking the kids home at halftime (gotta love that it’s a school night) so the partying could ramp up in the second half.
Hopefully the game is better than last year’s. I liked the Seattle win but it was over by halftime.
This year should play out much closer. New England has been phenomenal in getting to the Super Bowl. This is their 6th trip in 14 years – an NFL record. What can get overlooked is that the five previous games were some of the closest, most nail-biting and best Super Bowls ever.
Hopefully the game is better than last year’s. I liked the Seattle win but it was over by halftime.
This year should play out much closer. New England has been phenomenal in getting to the Super Bowl. This is their 6th trip in 14 years – an NFL record. What can get overlooked is that the five previous games were some of the closest, most nail-biting and best Super Bowls ever.
- It started in 2001 when New England as 14 point underdogs kicked a walk off FG to upset St Louis 20-17.
- Two years later they kicked a FG with four seconds left to beat Carolina 32-29.
- The Patriots repeated as Super Bowl champs in 2004 when they intercepted the ball with 10 seconds left to preserve a 24-21 win over the Eagles.
- In 2007, New England was 18-0 coming into the game. The Giant’s Eli Manning hit David Tyree in one of the most famous plays in Super Bowl history and then he hit Plaxico Burress (Spartan!) with 35 seconds left to win 17-14.
- Finally in 2011 the Giant’s Ahmad Bradshaw punched it in with 57 seconds left to win 21-17.
All great games. Here's to another this year.
And in reviewing these teams there is every reason to expect a close game as there are plenty of reason to back both teams
Seattle +1.0 vs New England Under 48 – I’m going with the line at the Mirage this week. The LVH Westgate has it at pick ‘em 47.5.
Why pick the Patriots?
Beating Peyton last year is one thing. He is a known choke artist on the biggest stage. Brady is a whole different matter. Brady is the all-time leading passer in career playoff yards (7,017), touchdowns (49), completions (646) and attempts (1,035). And his 20 postseason wins are not only the most of any quarterback, but also more than 21 current franchises have in their history (take that Lions). On Sunday he will be the first quarterback to ever start in six Super Bowls. And he is Mr. Clutch with eight fourth quarter/OT post season game winning drives. Also the most in NFL history.
And in reviewing these teams there is every reason to expect a close game as there are plenty of reason to back both teams
Seattle +1.0 vs New England Under 48 – I’m going with the line at the Mirage this week. The LVH Westgate has it at pick ‘em 47.5.
Why pick the Patriots?
Beating Peyton last year is one thing. He is a known choke artist on the biggest stage. Brady is a whole different matter. Brady is the all-time leading passer in career playoff yards (7,017), touchdowns (49), completions (646) and attempts (1,035). And his 20 postseason wins are not only the most of any quarterback, but also more than 21 current franchises have in their history (take that Lions). On Sunday he will be the first quarterback to ever start in six Super Bowls. And he is Mr. Clutch with eight fourth quarter/OT post season game winning drives. Also the most in NFL history.

The Seattle defense is superb but there is one chink in the armor – covering tight ends. The Seahawks have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, but the way to beat them is with the tight end. Opposing quarterbacks have 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions when targeting tight ends. When throwing to backs and receivers, quarterbacks have 6 touchdowns and 11 interceptions against the Legion of Boom. Seattle, meet Mr. Gronkowski, arguably the best tight end in the NFL today. He has been dominant since week five with 977 yards receiving and 9 TDs. The next closest player, Greg Olsen, has 754 yards and 4 TDs. That could make for an interesting prop bet. If New England wins Brady would be the logical choice for the MVP at 3/2 but you can add in Gronkowski at 9/1.
And how good is the Legion of Boom really? The may be ranked number 1 overall who have they played? Down the stretch they faced Drew Stanton, a down Colin Kepernick twice, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley and Shaun Hill. Not exactly murderers row. Add in that both CBs Richard Sherman (elbow) and Earl Thomas (shoulder) are hurting means Brady must have been flashing a devilish smile during film prep.
Don’t underrate the Patriots ability to stop the run. Marshawn Lynch may be the active player with the most postseason runs over 25 yards (6) but New England led the league this year in allowing the fewest runs over 25 yards (1).
And how good is the Legion of Boom really? The may be ranked number 1 overall who have they played? Down the stretch they faced Drew Stanton, a down Colin Kepernick twice, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley and Shaun Hill. Not exactly murderers row. Add in that both CBs Richard Sherman (elbow) and Earl Thomas (shoulder) are hurting means Brady must have been flashing a devilish smile during film prep.
Don’t underrate the Patriots ability to stop the run. Marshawn Lynch may be the active player with the most postseason runs over 25 yards (6) but New England led the league this year in allowing the fewest runs over 25 yards (1).

And New England will be able to load the box to stop Lynch as the Seahawk pass offense is not very scary. No team threw less than Seattle which was 27th in passing offense. The Patriots were ranked fourth in pass defense according to Pro Football Focus. If New England can stop the run then it comes down to Russell Wilson vs Tom Brady in the passing game. Advantage Brady.
Finally there is the evil genius Bill Belichick. He knows that there is only so much time left with him and Brady. So he’s been pulling out all the stops. In the divisional round, the Patriots rolled out a slew of unbalanced four-man offensive lines with an ineligible back split out wide to confuse the Ravens. From there, the Patriots would line up a tight end at the traditional left tackle spot, and throw him the football. In the AFC Championship Game, starting tackle Nate Solder reported to the line of scrimmage as an eligible receiver before hauling in a red zone pass and rumbling in for a score. Expect even more stuff added to the playbook with two weeks to prepare.
Finally there is the evil genius Bill Belichick. He knows that there is only so much time left with him and Brady. So he’s been pulling out all the stops. In the divisional round, the Patriots rolled out a slew of unbalanced four-man offensive lines with an ineligible back split out wide to confuse the Ravens. From there, the Patriots would line up a tight end at the traditional left tackle spot, and throw him the football. In the AFC Championship Game, starting tackle Nate Solder reported to the line of scrimmage as an eligible receiver before hauling in a red zone pass and rumbling in for a score. Expect even more stuff added to the playbook with two weeks to prepare.

Why pick Seattle?
The defense really is that good. They were ranked #1 in 2014 in yards allowed and yards per play allowed - just like 2013 when they won it all. It’s also the third year in a row they allowed the fewest points with 15.9 per game. That was way ahead of the next best Kansas City and Detroit at 17.6. New England? A respectable 8th but still far behind allowing 19.6 per game.
Brady may be better when it counts than Manning but they are similar in one area. Neither is very mobile. Seattle constantly pressured Manning last year forcing him to move in the pocket and upsetting his timing. Brady’s worst games of the year were teams that could pressure him – Miami, NY Jets, KC and Buffalo.
And Brady will need to throw. Seattle’s run defense was 3rd overall and hasn’t allowed more than 73 yards to any runner since Jamaal Charles had 159 for KC back in week 11 (A GO JUMBO Mega Bet win for the Doofus). It was Seattle’s last loss.
The defense really is that good. They were ranked #1 in 2014 in yards allowed and yards per play allowed - just like 2013 when they won it all. It’s also the third year in a row they allowed the fewest points with 15.9 per game. That was way ahead of the next best Kansas City and Detroit at 17.6. New England? A respectable 8th but still far behind allowing 19.6 per game.
Brady may be better when it counts than Manning but they are similar in one area. Neither is very mobile. Seattle constantly pressured Manning last year forcing him to move in the pocket and upsetting his timing. Brady’s worst games of the year were teams that could pressure him – Miami, NY Jets, KC and Buffalo.
And Brady will need to throw. Seattle’s run defense was 3rd overall and hasn’t allowed more than 73 yards to any runner since Jamaal Charles had 159 for KC back in week 11 (A GO JUMBO Mega Bet win for the Doofus). It was Seattle’s last loss.

New England’s run defense can be gashed. Prior to the Indy game that got out of hand quick for the Colts, New England surrendered an average of 114.7 rushing yards per contest.to their previous three opponents. The Ravens were especially brutal pounding out 136 rushing yards on just 27 carries. The more Lynch runs the shorter the game and less chances for Brady.
And it's not just Lynch. Seattle averaged 173 yards rushing per game easily the best in the league. Dallas was number 2 averaging 25 yards per game less.
Pete Carroll can mix it up too. Who can forget when Seattle jump started their miracle come back against the pack by faking a FG and the punter throws a TD pass to a back up line man? And for the first 56 minutes against Green Bay, Seattle had exactly 3 first downs. Then they reeled off 207 yards and seven first downs. Much of the reason had to do with going to the read option. During the fourth quarter and OT, Seattle ran it 10 times and two TDs. Marshawn Lynch leads the league with TDs off the read option with seven and Russell Wilson is tied for second with five. (That said, New England has not allowed a TD off the read option this year.)
The trends are mixed but tend to favor Seattle.
- New England went 6-1 against teams in the playoffs. The lone loss was to Green Bay
- Seattle went 7-1 against playoff teams. The lone loss was to Dallas.
- New England is 20-4 ATS when the spread is between -3 to 3.
- But they are 2-2-1 ATS in the playoffs when the are favored between 0-3½
- And they have never covered as a favorite in the Super Bowl going 0-4 ATS
- New England is typically overrated. They are 4-11 ATS in the playoffs overall
- Seattle loves the underdog role going 10-1 SU and ATS. The last loss was to the Lions in Oct 2012
- Russell Wilson is 10-0 against quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl
- For the second year in a row it's the number 1 seed vs the number 1 seed. It's only the fifth time this has happened since 1990 when the payoffs were expanded to 12 teams. The NFC is 4-0 in these games
- New England scored 42 points last week. Not a good omen. Teams that have scored 40-plus in the playoffs are just 3-22 ATS in their next game. The last time a team posted 40-plus points, the Patriots went on to lose to Denver in last year's AFC Championship.

So after much sober contemplation (I leave the drinking to the games themselves) I decided to take Seattle for a Mega Bet (last chance to Mega Bet!) for two main reasons
Much like last year, Seattle was favored by a point coming into last Sunday. Then, after the games, the line jumped all the way to New England giving 1.5. The general public loved what they saw in the Patriots as they destroyed Indianapolis. Conversely, Seattle needed an all time come back to squeak by Green Bay. Nearly 75 percent of the action is now betting on New England, yet this spread has remained steady at pick ‘em or Pats -1.0. The sharps love Seattle. The sharps were correct last year. They usually are.
That and sometimes you just got to keep it simple. Before last year’s Super Bowl I quoted the stat that the better defense is 39-8 in Super Bowls. Make that 40-8 after the Bronco Beat Down. It won’t be a beat down but it will go to 41-8.
And I believe that Pete Carroll is going to jam Marshawn Lynch down Belichick's throat all game with a few Wilson read options to boot. It will shorten the game so I’ll take the under. No Mega Bet though.
Joe emailed his picks along with pictures from a drinking game he was playing at a microbrewery with Mrs. Joe called Dave is a Whore. Mrs. Joe had lost a round so she had to drink two. The game may have influenced his picks as he is taking the Devil Incarnate Brady and the over. Let the bragging rights begin.
And he owes me the rules to the game. Can’t wait to play.
Of course, this being the Super Bowl, there are plenty of prop bets too. For Chris’ party I was required to bring over the squares board - ready to go Chris. I’m also bringing over my favorite props below in case anybody wants to make some side bets
Much like last year, Seattle was favored by a point coming into last Sunday. Then, after the games, the line jumped all the way to New England giving 1.5. The general public loved what they saw in the Patriots as they destroyed Indianapolis. Conversely, Seattle needed an all time come back to squeak by Green Bay. Nearly 75 percent of the action is now betting on New England, yet this spread has remained steady at pick ‘em or Pats -1.0. The sharps love Seattle. The sharps were correct last year. They usually are.
That and sometimes you just got to keep it simple. Before last year’s Super Bowl I quoted the stat that the better defense is 39-8 in Super Bowls. Make that 40-8 after the Bronco Beat Down. It won’t be a beat down but it will go to 41-8.
And I believe that Pete Carroll is going to jam Marshawn Lynch down Belichick's throat all game with a few Wilson read options to boot. It will shorten the game so I’ll take the under. No Mega Bet though.
Joe emailed his picks along with pictures from a drinking game he was playing at a microbrewery with Mrs. Joe called Dave is a Whore. Mrs. Joe had lost a round so she had to drink two. The game may have influenced his picks as he is taking the Devil Incarnate Brady and the over. Let the bragging rights begin.
And he owes me the rules to the game. Can’t wait to play.
Of course, this being the Super Bowl, there are plenty of prop bets too. For Chris’ party I was required to bring over the squares board - ready to go Chris. I’m also bringing over my favorite props below in case anybody wants to make some side bets
And here are some interesting tidbits about the game that you can amaze your friends and make a few bar bets too:
The game may be the smallest spread of all Super Bowls. The previous close spreads were
Also it will be the second year in a row that the team with the best record in the NFL will win the Super Bowl. Both Seattle and New England have 14-4 records. Everyone else has lost at least five games.
How hard is it to repeat? When Seattle beat Carolina in the divisional round it was the first time a defending Super Bowl champion even won a playoff game since 2005.
It may be a cliche but it holds true in the Super Bowl. The team that wins the turnover battle is 36-3. And these are the two best teams at winning the turnover battle - by a wide margin. Since 2012, the Patriots are +46 in turnovers. Seattle is second at +43. Third goes to San Francisco with +28
This will be the first Super Bowl where both teams overcame 14 point margins in the playoffs. The Patriots were down 14-0 against Baltimore. Seattle trailed Green Bay 16-0.
This will also be the first Super Bowl where both coaches are over 60. Pete Carroll is 63 while Belichick is 62
The game may be the smallest spread of all Super Bowls. The previous close spreads were
- VII (1972) Miami by 1 (Miami 14 Washington 7)
- XVI (1981) San Francisco by 1 (49ers 26 Bengals 21)
- XVIII (1983) Washington by 2 (Redskins 38 Raiders 9)
- XLVIII (2013) Denvers by 2.5 (Seattle 43 Denver 8)
Also it will be the second year in a row that the team with the best record in the NFL will win the Super Bowl. Both Seattle and New England have 14-4 records. Everyone else has lost at least five games.
How hard is it to repeat? When Seattle beat Carolina in the divisional round it was the first time a defending Super Bowl champion even won a playoff game since 2005.
It may be a cliche but it holds true in the Super Bowl. The team that wins the turnover battle is 36-3. And these are the two best teams at winning the turnover battle - by a wide margin. Since 2012, the Patriots are +46 in turnovers. Seattle is second at +43. Third goes to San Francisco with +28
This will be the first Super Bowl where both teams overcame 14 point margins in the playoffs. The Patriots were down 14-0 against Baltimore. Seattle trailed Green Bay 16-0.
This will also be the first Super Bowl where both coaches are over 60. Pete Carroll is 63 while Belichick is 62

Both teams turned it around after losing to Kansas City. New England fell to 2-2 after the loss then went 10-2 afterwards. Seattle dropped to 6-4 after losing to the Chiefs to fall three games back of Arizona. They haven't lost since.
Marshawn Lynch finally beat the Madden curse. He is the first player to make it to the Super Bowl after gracing the cover of Madden.
It's the first time in ten years that neither player was drafted in the first round. Brady was drafted in the sixth while Wilson was drafted in the third round.
This will be the first time Seattle and New England have met in the playoffs
Russell Wilson will become the first quarterback to start in the Super Bowl twice in his first three years in the league. Next best is Brady who started in two of his first four years.
Wilson's 849 yards rushing was more than two times more than any other quarterback and he would have been the leading rusher on 16 teams.
Marshawn Lynch finally beat the Madden curse. He is the first player to make it to the Super Bowl after gracing the cover of Madden.
It's the first time in ten years that neither player was drafted in the first round. Brady was drafted in the sixth while Wilson was drafted in the third round.
This will be the first time Seattle and New England have met in the playoffs
Russell Wilson will become the first quarterback to start in the Super Bowl twice in his first three years in the league. Next best is Brady who started in two of his first four years.
Wilson's 849 yards rushing was more than two times more than any other quarterback and he would have been the leading rusher on 16 teams.