First head coach with 10+ playoff wins with two franchises You are aware of the story lines – first Super Bowl with two black quarterbacks, the first Super Bowl with two brothers to play against each other, Andy Reid having coached both teams, the list goes on and on. But that’s not why you are here. Those are interesting stories for the casual fan to bore you with at your Super Bowl party. You’re here to figure out where you are going to invest our hard earned cash. And in the process upstage that casual fan with more interesting tidbits with even better insights.
But before we get to the SB picks - a trivia question from the Nail. Which five universities have both a President and Super Bowl winning quarterback? Answer below. Great question.
Ok back to the Big Game. First, lets discuss the line. It opened at a pick and in some places the Chiefs favored by around 1.5, but both sharp and square money pushed it up quickly to Philly -1.5 where it has stayed pretty much since. The money has continued to flow towards Philly such that 67% of the bets amounting to 69% of the money is on the Eagles.
But before we get to the SB picks - a trivia question from the Nail. Which five universities have both a President and Super Bowl winning quarterback? Answer below. Great question.
Ok back to the Big Game. First, lets discuss the line. It opened at a pick and in some places the Chiefs favored by around 1.5, but both sharp and square money pushed it up quickly to Philly -1.5 where it has stayed pretty much since. The money has continued to flow towards Philly such that 67% of the bets amounting to 69% of the money is on the Eagles.
Love ya bro Similarly, the Over/ Under opened at 48.5 and a ton of money came in on the over. The public loves the over (it’s bet the over 15 of the last 19 Super Bowls – going 6-9) but the sharps did too, pushing it all the way up to 51.0. However, the share is much less. 57% of the tickets amounting to 56% of the money bet is on the over. No surprise that the over is gaining that much attention. The Eagles and Chiefs had the #1 offenses in the NFL and AFC respectively.
They are the #1 seeds in their conferences too. That’s kind of a rarity really. It’s the first time since 2017 (Eagles vs Patriots) and only the seventh time since the field expanded to 12 teams back in 1990.
Are you having a tough time picking a team against the spread? Me too. Understandable, there are good cases to be made for both sides.
They are the #1 seeds in their conferences too. That’s kind of a rarity really. It’s the first time since 2017 (Eagles vs Patriots) and only the seventh time since the field expanded to 12 teams back in 1990.
Are you having a tough time picking a team against the spread? Me too. Understandable, there are good cases to be made for both sides.
Forget Mahomes - Hurts has been the one playing poorly since being hurt Why to bet the Chiefs – Much of the discussion over the last couple weeks has centered on the health of one of the two quarterbacks in the Super Bowl — Patrick Mahomes and his right ankle. But it’s the health of the Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and his injured right shoulder that may have more of an effect on the game. After coming back against the Giants in week 18 he was ineffective and then middling at best when he faced the Giants again in the playoffs.
Against the 49ers in the championship, he was down right pathetic (14/25 121 yards 0 TDs). His play has gone under the radar because the Eagles won both games with ease.
Statistically, the Eagles defense is outstanding but they have largely gone untested against elite pocket passers this season. And when they have been tested, the defense hasn’t held up to its elite standard.
Against the 49ers in the championship, he was down right pathetic (14/25 121 yards 0 TDs). His play has gone under the radar because the Eagles won both games with ease.
Statistically, the Eagles defense is outstanding but they have largely gone untested against elite pocket passers this season. And when they have been tested, the defense hasn’t held up to its elite standard.
Mahomes has the lowest sack rate because he can do this Philadelphia faced just three top 10 QBR rated quarterbacks this season. In Week 12 against the Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers left with a hand injury but Green Bay yet still managed to put up 33 points. Dak Prescott put up another 40 on them in Week 16 and Jared Goff led Detroit to 35 in Week 1. Two of those three games were Eagles victories, but those came with a fully healthy Hurts.
Mahomes will challenge the Eagles secondary, and based on pass block win rate, the Chiefs will be able to slow down the Eagles’ dominant pass rush. Kansas City is first in pass block win rate and Mahomes has the lowest sack rate under pressure in the NFL this season.
It’s worth noting that Mahomes has faced four teams in the top 10 of pass defenses this season. He’s 4-0, averaging 287 yards passing with 10 touchdowns. He will be ready for the Eagles top-ranked pass defense.
Mahomes will challenge the Eagles secondary, and based on pass block win rate, the Chiefs will be able to slow down the Eagles’ dominant pass rush. Kansas City is first in pass block win rate and Mahomes has the lowest sack rate under pressure in the NFL this season.
It’s worth noting that Mahomes has faced four teams in the top 10 of pass defenses this season. He’s 4-0, averaging 287 yards passing with 10 touchdowns. He will be ready for the Eagles top-ranked pass defense.
Mahomes is taking what the defenses give against quarters defenses The Eagles' pass rush is the best in football. However, Philadelphia has found the most success as a unit when deploying Quarters (four deep) coverage.
The strength of their four-man rush allows them to drop seven in coverage and prevent explosive plays. Knowing this, the Eagles leaned more into it as the year wore on. They lead the league this year with eight interceptions in Quarters, double the total of the next closest team.
For Mahomes, quarters coverage has in the past been his kryptonite. In 2021 his QBR against quarters defense was a meager 60.8, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. But he got markedly better in 2022 rising to 80.3 fifth best in the league.
The departure of Tyreek Hill took some getting used but starting in week 6, Mahomes has an 84.9 passing grade against Quarters, second best in the NFL.
The adjustment has been taking what the defense gives. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has done a nice job of isolating curl/flat defenders so that Mahomes can find an open receiver when defense make the slightest misstep. Finding Kelce when teams drop into quarters has been a large part of the offense. Taking what the defense gives you is a large part of the reason that, on passes of 20 or more yards, Mahomes posted the lowest clip of his career this season.
Pat likes the team color angle. Teams wearing white have gone an amazing 16-4 over the last 20 Super Bowls. The Chiefs will wear white this year.
It's hard to pick against the all-world contingent of Reid, Mahomes and Kelce, which sure seems like the contemporary edition of the once dominant Patriots trio of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Gronk.
The strength of their four-man rush allows them to drop seven in coverage and prevent explosive plays. Knowing this, the Eagles leaned more into it as the year wore on. They lead the league this year with eight interceptions in Quarters, double the total of the next closest team.
For Mahomes, quarters coverage has in the past been his kryptonite. In 2021 his QBR against quarters defense was a meager 60.8, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. But he got markedly better in 2022 rising to 80.3 fifth best in the league.
The departure of Tyreek Hill took some getting used but starting in week 6, Mahomes has an 84.9 passing grade against Quarters, second best in the NFL.
The adjustment has been taking what the defense gives. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has done a nice job of isolating curl/flat defenders so that Mahomes can find an open receiver when defense make the slightest misstep. Finding Kelce when teams drop into quarters has been a large part of the offense. Taking what the defense gives you is a large part of the reason that, on passes of 20 or more yards, Mahomes posted the lowest clip of his career this season.
Pat likes the team color angle. Teams wearing white have gone an amazing 16-4 over the last 20 Super Bowls. The Chiefs will wear white this year.
It's hard to pick against the all-world contingent of Reid, Mahomes and Kelce, which sure seems like the contemporary edition of the once dominant Patriots trio of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Gronk.
Philly love to set you up with trips to one side and hit you with the weak side run. Why to pick the Eagles - Games are decided in the trenches and the Eagles are far superior on both sides of the ball. The Eagles’ offense isn’t built around Jalen Hurts AJ Brown or Miles Sanders, it’s built around all-world center Jason Kelce.
The inside-zone run game is the foundation of Philadelphia’s offense. Including playoffs, they have run 69 more inside-zone plays than any other team in the league. Kelce is outstanding at getting physical in the trenches and open holes against defensive tackles. He is also fantastic at getting to the second level and maul linebackers to create lanes downfield.
In the Chiefs losses this season, the story was their inability to stop the run and difficulty with the other team's #1 receiver.
In their loss to Buffalo, the Bills ran for 125 yards on 31 carries while #1 wideout Stefon Diggs had 10 catches against the Chiefs secondary. In their loss to the Bengals in the regular season, the Bengals ran for 152 yards on 34 carries with Joe Burrow running 11 times for nearly 50 yards. Ja'Marr Chase had seven catches for nearly 100 yards in the game as well.
The inside-zone run game is the foundation of Philadelphia’s offense. Including playoffs, they have run 69 more inside-zone plays than any other team in the league. Kelce is outstanding at getting physical in the trenches and open holes against defensive tackles. He is also fantastic at getting to the second level and maul linebackers to create lanes downfield.
In the Chiefs losses this season, the story was their inability to stop the run and difficulty with the other team's #1 receiver.
In their loss to Buffalo, the Bills ran for 125 yards on 31 carries while #1 wideout Stefon Diggs had 10 catches against the Chiefs secondary. In their loss to the Bengals in the regular season, the Bengals ran for 152 yards on 34 carries with Joe Burrow running 11 times for nearly 50 yards. Ja'Marr Chase had seven catches for nearly 100 yards in the game as well.
Ig you win the rushing game you win the Super Bowl Jason Kelce and the Eagles have a vastly superior ground attack to both those teams. You can count on the Eagles to run the ball close to or exceeding 40 times in this game to wear down the Chiefs front four.
Only four teams in the league rushed for more yards per game than the Eagles (147.6). And, only two clubs finished with more running plays (544) than the Eagles. On the other hand, the Chiefs averaged 115.9 yards per game on the ground (20th in the NFL) and totaled just 417 running plays.
Why is this significant? The team that finishes the game with the most rushing yards owns a 41-14 record. Further, the club that winds up with the most running plays on Super Sunday owns a 47-7 mark.
Only four teams in the league rushed for more yards per game than the Eagles (147.6). And, only two clubs finished with more running plays (544) than the Eagles. On the other hand, the Chiefs averaged 115.9 yards per game on the ground (20th in the NFL) and totaled just 417 running plays.
Why is this significant? The team that finishes the game with the most rushing yards owns a 41-14 record. Further, the club that winds up with the most running plays on Super Sunday owns a 47-7 mark.
Hanson Reddick leads the way with 16 sacks on the season The trench battle also favors the Eagles on the defensive line, where they have arguably the deepest pass rush in the league. Four different players recorded at least 11 sacks for Philadelphia in the regular season, with Haason Reddick leading the way with 16, as the Eagles can generate tremendous pressure from both the edge (with Reddick, Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat) as well as along the interior (with perennial All-Pro Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave and veteran Ndamukong Suh).
Philadelphia can set the all-time record for sacks in the regular season and playoffs combined if they get to Mahomes on four occasions, which could very well happen. The Eagles' stalwart defensive front has a huge advantage over the Chiefs' blocking in the trenches
That pass rush will come in handy against Mahomes, who should be healthier than he was in the AFC Championship Game but still not as mobile as he would like against Philadelphia’s front. The Eagles’ defense is also capable of stifling teams on the back end as Darius Slay and James Bradberry have become one of the game’s best pairs of lockdown cornerbacks.
Philadelphia can set the all-time record for sacks in the regular season and playoffs combined if they get to Mahomes on four occasions, which could very well happen. The Eagles' stalwart defensive front has a huge advantage over the Chiefs' blocking in the trenches
That pass rush will come in handy against Mahomes, who should be healthier than he was in the AFC Championship Game but still not as mobile as he would like against Philadelphia’s front. The Eagles’ defense is also capable of stifling teams on the back end as Darius Slay and James Bradberry have become one of the game’s best pairs of lockdown cornerbacks.
Carl Cheffers is not good news for the Chiefs While the Chiefs are great at getting to the Super Bowl, this is their third trip in four years (and would be four straight if it weren’t for an OT loss to Cincinnati last year) they actually struggle in the Big Game. Outside of a fantastic fourth quarter comeback to San Francisco, they have been out scored 51-19 in the other seven quarters.
That plays right into the Eagles strategy of scoring early with the pass, then control the lead with the run and trust their pass rush. The Eagles have a point differential of plus-163 in the first half this season (including the playoffs) and have led by double digits 10 times.
Its unfortunate but who referees the game is important too. This year it’s Carl Cheffers which could hurt the Chiefs, The last time Cheffers refereed the Super Bowl: The eight penalties and 95 yards enforced against Kansas City, in the first half. Both were NFL records for a Super Bowl. The first half penalties resulted in six first downs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which was also an NFL record.
Cheffers has led the league in penalties called in two of the last three seasons, which includes this year with an average of 11.9 penalties per game for 123 yards. Cheffers likes to call offensive holding penalty, fifth overall this season. This could be a bigger issue for the Chiefs, who also rank fifth in offensive holding calls, and their 1.34 per game more than doubles when Cheffers in charge.
Cheffers is also one of the most frequent flag throwers on defensive pass interference, which he has no issues calling in the Big Game. In his two Super Bowl appearances, Cheffers and his crew have called five pass interferences when the NFL per-game average is below 1.3. This is bad news for the Chiefs, as they took the most defensive pass interference penalties this season.
That plays right into the Eagles strategy of scoring early with the pass, then control the lead with the run and trust their pass rush. The Eagles have a point differential of plus-163 in the first half this season (including the playoffs) and have led by double digits 10 times.
Its unfortunate but who referees the game is important too. This year it’s Carl Cheffers which could hurt the Chiefs, The last time Cheffers refereed the Super Bowl: The eight penalties and 95 yards enforced against Kansas City, in the first half. Both were NFL records for a Super Bowl. The first half penalties resulted in six first downs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which was also an NFL record.
Cheffers has led the league in penalties called in two of the last three seasons, which includes this year with an average of 11.9 penalties per game for 123 yards. Cheffers likes to call offensive holding penalty, fifth overall this season. This could be a bigger issue for the Chiefs, who also rank fifth in offensive holding calls, and their 1.34 per game more than doubles when Cheffers in charge.
Cheffers is also one of the most frequent flag throwers on defensive pass interference, which he has no issues calling in the Big Game. In his two Super Bowl appearances, Cheffers and his crew have called five pass interferences when the NFL per-game average is below 1.3. This is bad news for the Chiefs, as they took the most defensive pass interference penalties this season.
If you like the Chiefs you might like the orange Gatorade bath too. Finally, there’s the line movement. It swung towards the Eagles. The line has moved at least 1.5 points 18 times in Super Bowl history, and the team it moves towards is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS.
Add it all up and I’m still not totally convinced wither way. But I’m an old center at heart so I’ll with the Kelce in the green uniforms. It’s the last football game of the year (I’m not ready yet for the USFL) so it’s the last chance to invest. I’ll go with a Mega Bet on the Eagles and a Mini Mega on a praly of the Eagles and the Under. If the Eagles can run 30-40 times for the win, it should shorten the game and scoring chances. Mahomes dinking and dunking down the field should help too.
Now the beauty of the Super Bowl is that there are tons of prop bets too. You can bet every thing from the coin flip before the game to the color of the Gatorade after the game. You can make bets when the players are off the field at halftime too like which song will Rihanna sing first and whether she will propose to A$AP Rocky during the show (25/1).
You can make cross over bets too, bets on the Super Bowl and other sports playing at the same time such as: Woz is looking at - will the Flyers have more goals than Eagles TDs? Nick is wondering whether there will be more total goals in Leeds vs Man U vs FGs in the game. The Big Flippy is into NASCAR and is interested in whether the length of the first TD will exceed the number of cautions in the Daytona 500. I might take the TD prop on that one.
Add it all up and I’m still not totally convinced wither way. But I’m an old center at heart so I’ll with the Kelce in the green uniforms. It’s the last football game of the year (I’m not ready yet for the USFL) so it’s the last chance to invest. I’ll go with a Mega Bet on the Eagles and a Mini Mega on a praly of the Eagles and the Under. If the Eagles can run 30-40 times for the win, it should shorten the game and scoring chances. Mahomes dinking and dunking down the field should help too.
Now the beauty of the Super Bowl is that there are tons of prop bets too. You can bet every thing from the coin flip before the game to the color of the Gatorade after the game. You can make bets when the players are off the field at halftime too like which song will Rihanna sing first and whether she will propose to A$AP Rocky during the show (25/1).
You can make cross over bets too, bets on the Super Bowl and other sports playing at the same time such as: Woz is looking at - will the Flyers have more goals than Eagles TDs? Nick is wondering whether there will be more total goals in Leeds vs Man U vs FGs in the game. The Big Flippy is into NASCAR and is interested in whether the length of the first TD will exceed the number of cautions in the Daytona 500. I might take the TD prop on that one.
I'll take Jalen to score a TD But, by far the most action is on the game itself. Here are the props I’ll invest in to add some spice to the game.
Will the points scored in the 2nd half exceed the 1st half? Yes -135. In the previous 36 Super Bowls, the second half is 23-12-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we're getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at -135
Will Mahomes throw a pick? – Yes -115. Mahomes is a great quarterback but he can play a little hero ball. In his two Super Bowls he threw not one but two picks in each game. In the loss to Cincinnati in last year’s playoff loss he threw a pick too. I’ll take him to throw one against the top ranked Philly secondary.
Any time TD scorer – Jalen Hurts -105. Philadelphia scored more than half (32 of 59) of the team's total touchdowns through the ground. And Hurts scored the majority of those! He found the end zone a whopping 13 times, more than any other rusher on the roster.
Will the points scored in the 2nd half exceed the 1st half? Yes -135. In the previous 36 Super Bowls, the second half is 23-12-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we're getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at -135
Will Mahomes throw a pick? – Yes -115. Mahomes is a great quarterback but he can play a little hero ball. In his two Super Bowls he threw not one but two picks in each game. In the loss to Cincinnati in last year’s playoff loss he threw a pick too. I’ll take him to throw one against the top ranked Philly secondary.
Any time TD scorer – Jalen Hurts -105. Philadelphia scored more than half (32 of 59) of the team's total touchdowns through the ground. And Hurts scored the majority of those! He found the end zone a whopping 13 times, more than any other rusher on the roster.
I'll take a flyer on a pick six too Will both teams make a FG over 33.5 yards - No -115. Harrison Butker has made a 33-plus yarder in 7-of-15 games (47%) while Jake Elliott has made one in 6-of-18 (33%). Math alone has the chances at 64% no.
Will there be a pick 6? Yes +600. Defensive touchdowns have been abnormally common in the Super Bowl. We’ve seen 21 defensive TDs in 56 games, which means a 37.5% chance in any random Super Bowl.
Both Kelces to score a TD? Yes +20000. OK this one is just for fun. The case for Travis is a no brainer but his brother the center? Well, On October 5th, Nick Sirianni, was on “The Pat McAfee Show” talking about how he had to bribe Jason with a keg to bring him back this season, and how valuable he is to the team and so nimble he is on his feet.
Unprompted, he deadpanned that maybe he’d need to line Jason up eligible in the backfield and give him a couple carries or a screen pass sometime if it meant keeping him another year. Wouldn’t it be fun if he really did that! You will be the hit of the party if you call this one right.
Here's a full list of all the prop bets at the SuperBook.
Will there be a pick 6? Yes +600. Defensive touchdowns have been abnormally common in the Super Bowl. We’ve seen 21 defensive TDs in 56 games, which means a 37.5% chance in any random Super Bowl.
Both Kelces to score a TD? Yes +20000. OK this one is just for fun. The case for Travis is a no brainer but his brother the center? Well, On October 5th, Nick Sirianni, was on “The Pat McAfee Show” talking about how he had to bribe Jason with a keg to bring him back this season, and how valuable he is to the team and so nimble he is on his feet.
Unprompted, he deadpanned that maybe he’d need to line Jason up eligible in the backfield and give him a couple carries or a screen pass sometime if it meant keeping him another year. Wouldn’t it be fun if he really did that! You will be the hit of the party if you call this one right.
Here's a full list of all the prop bets at the SuperBook.
| sb_lvii_props.xls_[compatibility_mode].pdf |
Jalen Hurst aims to be the first player with #1 to win Super Bowl MVP Here's some other tidbits to throw out at your friends during the lulls in the game.
Jalen Hurts is aiming to be the first quarterback in NFL history to win a Super Bowl while wearing No. 1 on his jersey. Most recently, Cam Newton wore the number back in Super Bowl 50, but he lost to Denver 24-10 victory.
This marks the 10th time that Mahomes has been listed as an underdog in his career. Kansas City owns a remarkable 7-1-1 ATS mark in the first nine opportunities, including six outright wins.
Andy Reid is the fifth head coach in NFL history to draw a Super Bowl matchup against his former team, with the previous four coaches to do so being Pete Carroll against the Patriots (2014), Jon Gruden against the Bucs (2002), Dan Reeves against the Broncos (1998), and Weeb Ewbank against the Colts (1968), and in those matchups, the returning coaches have yielded a record of 2-2.
Jalen Hurts is aiming to be the first quarterback in NFL history to win a Super Bowl while wearing No. 1 on his jersey. Most recently, Cam Newton wore the number back in Super Bowl 50, but he lost to Denver 24-10 victory.
This marks the 10th time that Mahomes has been listed as an underdog in his career. Kansas City owns a remarkable 7-1-1 ATS mark in the first nine opportunities, including six outright wins.
Andy Reid is the fifth head coach in NFL history to draw a Super Bowl matchup against his former team, with the previous four coaches to do so being Pete Carroll against the Patriots (2014), Jon Gruden against the Bucs (2002), Dan Reeves against the Broncos (1998), and Weeb Ewbank against the Colts (1968), and in those matchups, the returning coaches have yielded a record of 2-2.
Nick Sirrani is the 6th straight coach to make his Super Bowl debut against a SB veteran HC The Chiefs will be looking to become the 7th AFC team since the merger in 1970 to win the Super Bowl outright as an underdog. In fact, the last three clubs in this role have picked up the victory, including the Broncos over the Panthers in Super Bowl 50 and the Ravens over the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII.
There’s only been 15 instances in which one head coach was making his Super Bowl debut versus a coach bearing Super Bowl experience. However, it’s now happened six years straight, highlighted by Doug Pederson, Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Bruce Arians, Zac Taylor, and now, Nick Sirriani all taking their first crack at it against coaches that previously reached the big game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in two Super Bowls with Mahomes at QB and they’ve started slow in both games. The club has only managed to score 16 total points in the first-half in their two outings versus the 49ers (10) and Buccaneers (6).
If you like the Chiefs to cover you might as well take the money line. Only one Super Bowl has be decided by one point – Super Bowl XXV in 1991 when the New York Giants defeated the Bills 20-19.
The NFC East has participated in 21 Super Bowls, the most among the eight divisions. The group also owns the best winning percentage, going 13-8 SU and 14-7 ATS.
And the answer to the trivia question:
Michigan (it wasn’t my question folks) – Ford and Brady
Delaware – Biden and Flacco
Miami (OH) - Benjamin Harrison and Big Ben
Navy – Carter and Staubach
Stanford - Herbert Hoover and Jim Plunkett (first Latino to win the Heisman). Mrs H knew this one
There’s only been 15 instances in which one head coach was making his Super Bowl debut versus a coach bearing Super Bowl experience. However, it’s now happened six years straight, highlighted by Doug Pederson, Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Bruce Arians, Zac Taylor, and now, Nick Sirriani all taking their first crack at it against coaches that previously reached the big game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in two Super Bowls with Mahomes at QB and they’ve started slow in both games. The club has only managed to score 16 total points in the first-half in their two outings versus the 49ers (10) and Buccaneers (6).
If you like the Chiefs to cover you might as well take the money line. Only one Super Bowl has be decided by one point – Super Bowl XXV in 1991 when the New York Giants defeated the Bills 20-19.
The NFC East has participated in 21 Super Bowls, the most among the eight divisions. The group also owns the best winning percentage, going 13-8 SU and 14-7 ATS.
And the answer to the trivia question:
Michigan (it wasn’t my question folks) – Ford and Brady
Delaware – Biden and Flacco
Miami (OH) - Benjamin Harrison and Big Ben
Navy – Carter and Staubach
Stanford - Herbert Hoover and Jim Plunkett (first Latino to win the Heisman). Mrs H knew this one
