Brady or Belichick? It was Brady It’s the Kid versus the GOAT. I hate to say it but want else can be said about Brady? He has played in an 44 playoff games and is an amazing 33-11 in the post season.
This is his 10th Super Bowl appearance going 6-3 so far. He has won the Super Bowl MVP four times and if he wins it again he will move two ahead of the next closest player, Joe Montana with three. Win it and he will have more rings than Saturn. He’s been winning these games while the Kid was literally in Kindergarten.
Also consider that Steve Young, Dan Marino, John Elway, Joe Montana, and Otto Graham were inducted into the Hall of Fame at age 43 while Brady will be starting his 10th Super Bowl at that age.
Brady is hungry for revenge after divorcing Bill Belichick and the Patriot Way last summer. He lured his former top target Rob Gronkowski out of retirement and making the Antonio Brown experiment work where it failed in New England.
Was it Brady or Belichick that made the Patriots so dominant. We know the answer now.
This is his 10th Super Bowl appearance going 6-3 so far. He has won the Super Bowl MVP four times and if he wins it again he will move two ahead of the next closest player, Joe Montana with three. Win it and he will have more rings than Saturn. He’s been winning these games while the Kid was literally in Kindergarten.
Also consider that Steve Young, Dan Marino, John Elway, Joe Montana, and Otto Graham were inducted into the Hall of Fame at age 43 while Brady will be starting his 10th Super Bowl at that age.
Brady is hungry for revenge after divorcing Bill Belichick and the Patriot Way last summer. He lured his former top target Rob Gronkowski out of retirement and making the Antonio Brown experiment work where it failed in New England.
Was it Brady or Belichick that made the Patriots so dominant. We know the answer now.
Mahomes - the human cheat code Just two years ago, Tom Brady sought out Patrick Mahomes after the AFC Championship Game to console the youngster and provide encouragement. Mahomes hasn't lost a playoff game since.
The Kansas City Kid is going for his second straight Super Bowl win and MVP. If he gets it, he will become only the second player, Bart Starr being the other, to win the award twice in a row. It’s only his seventh playoff appearance but he is an equally incredible 6-1 during the post season.
Mahomes is the human cheat code with his ability to move around in the pocket and make every throw from the most impossible of angles. One second, he’s dead to rights for a surefire sack, the next, he’s hurling the ball 50 yards across his body to a wide open receiver.
More often than not, it’s to the best tight in the game, Travis Kelce, who’s open more than your local McDonalds all night drive through. Yet, Kelce is his second favorite option. He first seeks out WR Tyreek Hill. The man known as the human cheetah taunted, torched and humiliated Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium in every way possible back in week 12 erupting for 203 in the first quarter!
The Kansas City Kid is going for his second straight Super Bowl win and MVP. If he gets it, he will become only the second player, Bart Starr being the other, to win the award twice in a row. It’s only his seventh playoff appearance but he is an equally incredible 6-1 during the post season.
Mahomes is the human cheat code with his ability to move around in the pocket and make every throw from the most impossible of angles. One second, he’s dead to rights for a surefire sack, the next, he’s hurling the ball 50 yards across his body to a wide open receiver.
More often than not, it’s to the best tight in the game, Travis Kelce, who’s open more than your local McDonalds all night drive through. Yet, Kelce is his second favorite option. He first seeks out WR Tyreek Hill. The man known as the human cheetah taunted, torched and humiliated Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium in every way possible back in week 12 erupting for 203 in the first quarter!
How good were Kelce and Hill? They were the top two players in yards per touch. Hill's 14 yards per touch led the league, with Kelce right behind him at 13.5. Only six other qualified pass catchers averaged even 10 yards per touch.
And the offensive banquet could have one more place setting if Sammy Watkins plays as expected after going out with a calf injury in week 16.
Yet for all the offensive firepower on both sides, the game will likely be decided by the defenses. The Buccaneers (22.3 PPG) and Chiefs (22.4 PPG) are ranked 9th and 10th respectively in scoring defense.
Tampa Bay has actually advanced in large part due to its defense which produced an NFL-high seven takeaways during the postseason. Five of those have been interceptions, including four from former MVPs and future Hall of Famers, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.
How do they break through to Mahomes, a quarterback so immune to pressure he hasn't lost a yard on a sack since Dec. 20? Well, he might be Harry Houdini in the pocket, but he won’t have Eric Fisher or Mitchell Schwartz to protect him in this game. Tampa Bay has a superb DL led by Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, and Vita Vea coming off IR.
And the offensive banquet could have one more place setting if Sammy Watkins plays as expected after going out with a calf injury in week 16.
Yet for all the offensive firepower on both sides, the game will likely be decided by the defenses. The Buccaneers (22.3 PPG) and Chiefs (22.4 PPG) are ranked 9th and 10th respectively in scoring defense.
Tampa Bay has actually advanced in large part due to its defense which produced an NFL-high seven takeaways during the postseason. Five of those have been interceptions, including four from former MVPs and future Hall of Famers, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.
How do they break through to Mahomes, a quarterback so immune to pressure he hasn't lost a yard on a sack since Dec. 20? Well, he might be Harry Houdini in the pocket, but he won’t have Eric Fisher or Mitchell Schwartz to protect him in this game. Tampa Bay has a superb DL led by Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, and Vita Vea coming off IR.
Vita Vea can bring the heat Getting Vea back is huge as the Buccaneers’ defense has generated a QB pressure on 32.7% of snaps when Vea is on the field. When he is not, the percentage drops six full points to 26%. If the Chiefs makeshift OL gets dominated up front, you can throw all of the gunslinging and flashy play calling into your neighbor’s dumpster.
Yet, Mahomes excels at throwing on the run. He led the NFL in passing yards while on the run with 951 with Seattle's Russell Wilson next in line (867). Mahomes also ranked first and second, respectively, in touchdown passes (13) and completions (76) when on the run. Tom Brady, meanwhile, finished last in throws on the run, coming in at just three percent of his attempts.
For Kansas City, Chief’s DC Steve Spagnuolo knows a thing or two about slowing down Brady and all his weapons. He’s the defensive mastermind behind the New York Giants defense that ruined Tom Brady and the 2007 New England Patriots’ perfect season.
Yet, Mahomes excels at throwing on the run. He led the NFL in passing yards while on the run with 951 with Seattle's Russell Wilson next in line (867). Mahomes also ranked first and second, respectively, in touchdown passes (13) and completions (76) when on the run. Tom Brady, meanwhile, finished last in throws on the run, coming in at just three percent of his attempts.
For Kansas City, Chief’s DC Steve Spagnuolo knows a thing or two about slowing down Brady and all his weapons. He’s the defensive mastermind behind the New York Giants defense that ruined Tom Brady and the 2007 New England Patriots’ perfect season.
Look for Fournette to pound away at the Chiefs weakness - the run defense And Brady seems to be slipping in his old age. Against Green Bay. after building a 28-10 lead, he nearly took the Bucs down singlehandedly by throwing picks on three straight drives in the second half. While the Buccaneers held on to win their third straight road game, those types of ugly turnovers happened a bit more regularly this year to a pocket quarterback lacking speed. Brady's 12 regular-season interceptions were the most since 2011.
Look for Bucs HC Bruce Arians to stick with a balanced offensive approach in hopes of keeping Mahomes on the sideline. Brady will have his chances to throw the ball down the field, but he also needs to lean on his two-headed monster at running back with Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones.
The Chiefs are ranked 19th against the run with teams averaging 121.9 rushing yards against them. It’s a weakness the Bucs will look to exploit.
The goal will be to get to the red zone and pound it in. The Chiefs own the worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing an eye-opening 76.6% touchdown percentage. Opponents have been able to score 36 touchdowns in 47 attempts.
Look for Bucs HC Bruce Arians to stick with a balanced offensive approach in hopes of keeping Mahomes on the sideline. Brady will have his chances to throw the ball down the field, but he also needs to lean on his two-headed monster at running back with Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones.
The Chiefs are ranked 19th against the run with teams averaging 121.9 rushing yards against them. It’s a weakness the Bucs will look to exploit.
The goal will be to get to the red zone and pound it in. The Chiefs own the worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing an eye-opening 76.6% touchdown percentage. Opponents have been able to score 36 touchdowns in 47 attempts.
The kickers are the two worst at extra points The X Factor in the game could very well be special teams. In a high-scoring game, a missed extra point could make the difference. Ryan Succop has been lights out for the Bucs, going 8-for-8 on field goals this postseason, but he did miss an extra point in the Wild Card Round. Six missed PATs overall won’t make for a long NFL career. Only one NFL kicker has missed more.
Who was that? None other than the Chiefs' Harrison Butker, missing one this postseason and seven overall. Butker also botched a field goal attempt vs. Cleveland, adding up to four points that made the difference between a two-possession game and the Browns having the ball with a chance to win.
Some other fun facts to consider before placing your Mega Bets.
Tampa Bay comes into the game as the number 5 seed. Only two previous No. 5 seeds made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Coincidentally enough, the New England Patriots are 0-2 straight up in those Super Bowls. There was the blowout loss to the 1985 Chicago Bears and the 2007 “Perfection Lost” season.
Who was that? None other than the Chiefs' Harrison Butker, missing one this postseason and seven overall. Butker also botched a field goal attempt vs. Cleveland, adding up to four points that made the difference between a two-possession game and the Browns having the ball with a chance to win.
Some other fun facts to consider before placing your Mega Bets.
Tampa Bay comes into the game as the number 5 seed. Only two previous No. 5 seeds made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Coincidentally enough, the New England Patriots are 0-2 straight up in those Super Bowls. There was the blowout loss to the 1985 Chicago Bears and the 2007 “Perfection Lost” season.
Tampa Bay is 5-0 when wearing white jersies and pewter pants Brady has played in nine Super Bowls and yet has only scored a total three points in the first quarter (Super Bowl LII versus Philadelphia).
Andy Reid’s bye record is legendary. He’s 18-3 in the regular season with rest and 6-2 in the playoffs. Even better, Reid has never lost a game with rest with Patrick Mahomes as quarterback.
As the home team Tampa got to pick its uniform colors. They chose white jerseys with pewter pants, a combination in which they have won all five games this season. Kansas City is 8-2 wearing red unis but 7-0 when wearing white;
The Buccaneers are riding a seven-game winning streak heading into Super Sunday. The last NFC team to own a seven-game hot stretch going into the Super Bowl was the 2000 Giants. They lost in Tampa, no less, as three-point underdogs to the Ravens.
The Bucs have to try and dodge the fact that 23 of the past 30 Super Bowl winners since 1990 have made the playoffs the year prior, and the fact that Super Bowl QB's who threw for more TD's than their counterpart during the regular season are 6-14 SU since 2000 and 0-5 SU the past five years.
Andy Reid’s bye record is legendary. He’s 18-3 in the regular season with rest and 6-2 in the playoffs. Even better, Reid has never lost a game with rest with Patrick Mahomes as quarterback.
As the home team Tampa got to pick its uniform colors. They chose white jerseys with pewter pants, a combination in which they have won all five games this season. Kansas City is 8-2 wearing red unis but 7-0 when wearing white;
The Buccaneers are riding a seven-game winning streak heading into Super Sunday. The last NFC team to own a seven-game hot stretch going into the Super Bowl was the 2000 Giants. They lost in Tampa, no less, as three-point underdogs to the Ravens.
The Bucs have to try and dodge the fact that 23 of the past 30 Super Bowl winners since 1990 have made the playoffs the year prior, and the fact that Super Bowl QB's who threw for more TD's than their counterpart during the regular season are 6-14 SU since 2000 and 0-5 SU the past five years.
Statistically, Carl Cheffers is good for the Chiefs and the under Don’t overlook the officiating. Carl Cheffers is will be wearing the white hat, his second career assignment in the biggest game of the year. His previous Super Bowl as referee just happened to have one of the wildest comebacks in history, as the Patriots erased a 28-3 deficit to beat the Falcons in the only overtime game in Super Bowl history.
Cheffers has called five games since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback for Kansas City, and the Chiefs are 5-0 straight up in those games.
The under has been a winning bet in Cheffers' playoff games, going 8-1 since his promotion to referee in 2008. That lone Over was the aforementioned Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, which actually came in Under in regulation before passing the total in overtime.
Boil it all down and I’m taking the Chiefs on the money line at -165. Mahomes just has a way off pulling off games, even better than Brady and Rodgers. I’m scared off the hook at 3.5 so I’ll just go with the money line.
I also like the under 56.0 too. I expect the Bucs to run behind Fournette to keep Mahomes off the field while keeping the clock ticking. I’m going against the public here. 72% of the money is on the over.
Betting the under is hard especially with Mahomes and Brady under center. But, there have been eleven previous Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher and the ‘under’ has gone 8-3. There have been four with a line of 55 or more. The under has gone 3-1 with the lone loss being the Falcons Patriots overtime game.
I also took a parlay with the Chiefs money line and under too with a 3/1 payoff.
Cheffers has called five games since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback for Kansas City, and the Chiefs are 5-0 straight up in those games.
The under has been a winning bet in Cheffers' playoff games, going 8-1 since his promotion to referee in 2008. That lone Over was the aforementioned Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, which actually came in Under in regulation before passing the total in overtime.
Boil it all down and I’m taking the Chiefs on the money line at -165. Mahomes just has a way off pulling off games, even better than Brady and Rodgers. I’m scared off the hook at 3.5 so I’ll just go with the money line.
I also like the under 56.0 too. I expect the Bucs to run behind Fournette to keep Mahomes off the field while keeping the clock ticking. I’m going against the public here. 72% of the money is on the over.
Betting the under is hard especially with Mahomes and Brady under center. But, there have been eleven previous Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher and the ‘under’ has gone 8-3. There have been four with a line of 55 or more. The under has gone 3-1 with the lone loss being the Falcons Patriots overtime game.
I also took a parlay with the Chiefs money line and under too with a 3/1 payoff.
Gronk isn't being targeted much but when he is, it's for a good gain Woz liked those picks too. He also went with some prop bets:
Brady running and passing under 300.5 yards. I like it. Fournette should get the rock a lot.
Travis Kelce over 7.5 catches. We will see. With Watkins coming back, its yet another a weapon in Mahome's arsenal.
Mahomes under 375.5 yards running and passing. Excellent bet. The public is enamored with Mahomes yet he has averaged just under 300 yards rushing and passing in the playoffs this year.
Here’s some prop bets I like:
First reception by Rob Gronkowski over 7.5 yards (-110). - Gronk is not getting as much use with just six catches on 13 targets the last five games, but those went for 29, 14, 18, 11, 33, and 25 yards.
Tyreek Hill longest reception Over 26.5 yards (-110). - He's gone over this number in five of his last seven games and 10 times overall.
Total number of interceptions over 1.5 (+140) - : Both Kansas City and Tampa Bay forced at least one turnover in all but two games this season, including the postseason. With Brady getting a little slpooy with the ball I’ll go with the over and a nice payoff.
Brady running and passing under 300.5 yards. I like it. Fournette should get the rock a lot.
Travis Kelce over 7.5 catches. We will see. With Watkins coming back, its yet another a weapon in Mahome's arsenal.
Mahomes under 375.5 yards running and passing. Excellent bet. The public is enamored with Mahomes yet he has averaged just under 300 yards rushing and passing in the playoffs this year.
Here’s some prop bets I like:
First reception by Rob Gronkowski over 7.5 yards (-110). - Gronk is not getting as much use with just six catches on 13 targets the last five games, but those went for 29, 14, 18, 11, 33, and 25 yards.
Tyreek Hill longest reception Over 26.5 yards (-110). - He's gone over this number in five of his last seven games and 10 times overall.
Total number of interceptions over 1.5 (+140) - : Both Kansas City and Tampa Bay forced at least one turnover in all but two games this season, including the postseason. With Brady getting a little slpooy with the ball I’ll go with the over and a nice payoff.
Tyreek Hill is good for at least one long gainer. Peace, out Total TD passes by Mahomes over 3 (+200) – a hedge bet on the under.
Longest completion by Mahomes over 39.5 (-110) – Tyreek Hill smoking past the Bus secondary. Yeah, that will happen.
Sammy Watkins to score a TD (+300) – worth a small wager with that payoff.
KC to score a rushing TD in the first half (+220) - worth a another small wager for a good payoff.
Chris Godwin under 5.5 (-110) – Goswin has a severe case of the dropsies in the playoffs. The bright lights are too much for one of my better fantasy players. Brady loo to the more sure handed Gronk and Brate.
Mahomes -19.5 rushing yards versus Brady (-110) – Brady never runs. Mahomes will have this by the first half.
Tyreek Hill -10.5 receiving yards versus Chris Godwin – After the first drop, Brady looks elsewhere.
And for all the Super Bowl Prop Bets, here's the ones from our favorite gambling hole - the Westgate SuperBook
Longest completion by Mahomes over 39.5 (-110) – Tyreek Hill smoking past the Bus secondary. Yeah, that will happen.
Sammy Watkins to score a TD (+300) – worth a small wager with that payoff.
KC to score a rushing TD in the first half (+220) - worth a another small wager for a good payoff.
Chris Godwin under 5.5 (-110) – Goswin has a severe case of the dropsies in the playoffs. The bright lights are too much for one of my better fantasy players. Brady loo to the more sure handed Gronk and Brate.
Mahomes -19.5 rushing yards versus Brady (-110) – Brady never runs. Mahomes will have this by the first half.
Tyreek Hill -10.5 receiving yards versus Chris Godwin – After the first drop, Brady looks elsewhere.
And for all the Super Bowl Prop Bets, here's the ones from our favorite gambling hole - the Westgate SuperBook
| super-bowl-55-props-superbook-westgate-las-vegas.pdf |
The Big Flippy came up with his play at home prop bet contest. Keep your own score and it's on the honor system but he is putting up a free drink coupon to the winner!
I've included my picks. I'm claiming that I'm perfect. If you bring the file to GO JUMBO to prove me wrong, I'll say that you altered the file.
I've included my picks. I'm claiming that I'm perfect. If you bring the file to GO JUMBO to prove me wrong, I'll say that you altered the file.
| big_flippy_superbowl_prop_bets.xlsx |
It's the final football game of the year so sit back and enjoy what should be a great one
