Rise Up Atlanta! Rise Up! The Falcons are in the Super Bowl!
Atlanta has caught Falcon fever. People in these parts are ditching their Braves gear, running down to the Costco and buying up anything with the Birdie logo. Chances are it’s the first item they’ve ever had with Falcon on it.
The bandwagon has turned into a steamroller. Atlanta has been on a tear, winners of six straight games by an average margin of 19.6 points. They have the number one scoring offense by far and have averaged 39 points per game over the winning streak scoring no fewer than 33.
It all starts with QB Matt Ryan. He rebounded from a rather pedestrian 2015 to have an MVP caliber 2016, leading the league in passer rating (117.1), 2nd in yards (4,944), and touchdowns (38) while tossing only seven interceptions.
And as good as he was during the regular season, he’s been even better in the playoffs throwing for 730 yards, 7TDs and no picks in two games.
Atlanta has caught Falcon fever. People in these parts are ditching their Braves gear, running down to the Costco and buying up anything with the Birdie logo. Chances are it’s the first item they’ve ever had with Falcon on it.
The bandwagon has turned into a steamroller. Atlanta has been on a tear, winners of six straight games by an average margin of 19.6 points. They have the number one scoring offense by far and have averaged 39 points per game over the winning streak scoring no fewer than 33.
It all starts with QB Matt Ryan. He rebounded from a rather pedestrian 2015 to have an MVP caliber 2016, leading the league in passer rating (117.1), 2nd in yards (4,944), and touchdowns (38) while tossing only seven interceptions.
And as good as he was during the regular season, he’s been even better in the playoffs throwing for 730 yards, 7TDs and no picks in two games.
Now he gets his chance for immortality when he faces off against the Patriot Empire led by the evil Emperor Belichick and Darth Brady.
There’s no other way to describe other than a dynasty. The Patriots are making their record ninth Super Bowl appearance, breaking a tie with Dallas, Denver and Pittsburgh. Belichick, Brady are also attempting to be the first coach and QB to win five Super Bowls.
And success breeds contempt. Make no mistake, New England is hated throughout the NFL. In fact, a recent poll showed that the Pats are the most hated team in the NFL. The same poll showed that only 27% of the public wants New England to win (versus nearly 60% of the betting public).
Most of the hype about this game is that the #1 offense in the NFL (Atlanta) is playing the #1 defense (New England). It’s the eighth time this has happened in the Super Bowl. The bad news for Atlanta is that the better defense is 6-1.
Atlanta’s offense not only registered a league high 540 points, it ranked tied for seventh all time in a single season, But teams that have posted scoreboard busting numbers over the years haven’t won championships. The six squads that put up more points in a season than Atlanta all failed to capture the title. Only two of those teams, the 2013 Broncos and the 2007 Patriots even reached the Super Bowl and they scored only 22 points combined in the Big Game.
There’s no other way to describe other than a dynasty. The Patriots are making their record ninth Super Bowl appearance, breaking a tie with Dallas, Denver and Pittsburgh. Belichick, Brady are also attempting to be the first coach and QB to win five Super Bowls.
And success breeds contempt. Make no mistake, New England is hated throughout the NFL. In fact, a recent poll showed that the Pats are the most hated team in the NFL. The same poll showed that only 27% of the public wants New England to win (versus nearly 60% of the betting public).
Most of the hype about this game is that the #1 offense in the NFL (Atlanta) is playing the #1 defense (New England). It’s the eighth time this has happened in the Super Bowl. The bad news for Atlanta is that the better defense is 6-1.
Atlanta’s offense not only registered a league high 540 points, it ranked tied for seventh all time in a single season, But teams that have posted scoreboard busting numbers over the years haven’t won championships. The six squads that put up more points in a season than Atlanta all failed to capture the title. Only two of those teams, the 2013 Broncos and the 2007 Patriots even reached the Super Bowl and they scored only 22 points combined in the Big Game.
Still, how good was that Patriot defense? They didn’t face a top ten QB all year. Yeah, they throttled a potent Pittsburgh offense in the AFC championship game but LeVeon Bell went down early in the game making the Steelers one dimensional.
New England hasn’t seen anything like what Atlanta will throw at them. Not only has Ryan been red hot all year, the Falcons also have arguably the best WR in Julio Jones. Julio led the NFL with 100.6 yards per game.
Belichick is the master of shutting down your best weapon so all that means is that Ryan will target Mohamned Sanu and Taylor Gabreil. Torching opposing defense with a wide range of different receivers has been commonplace for the Falcons this year. Ryan set a record throwing TD passes to 13 different players.
New England hasn’t seen anything like what Atlanta will throw at them. Not only has Ryan been red hot all year, the Falcons also have arguably the best WR in Julio Jones. Julio led the NFL with 100.6 yards per game.
Belichick is the master of shutting down your best weapon so all that means is that Ryan will target Mohamned Sanu and Taylor Gabreil. Torching opposing defense with a wide range of different receivers has been commonplace for the Falcons this year. Ryan set a record throwing TD passes to 13 different players.
How about when New England has the ball? The Patriots had the #3 rated offense and would be #2 if you count just the games that Brady played in. Atlanta’s defense was 27th overall, making them, by far, the worst unit on the field. The Falcons allowed 25.4 points per game, the second most ever by a team to reach the Super Bowl.
But this is a group that has matured dramatically over the course of the season, and it is clearly starting to pay off at just the right time. Atlanta’s defense has been most impressive during the playoffs, surrendering just 20.5 points per game against two of the NFL’s most dangerous offenses in Seattle and Green Bay. They even managed to hold a nuclear-hot Aaron Rodgers and Packers’ offense scoreless in the first half of the NFC championship game.
Second-year pass-rushing dynamo Vic Beasley Jr. has been relatively quiet so far during the postseason, but he is fully capable of wreaking havoc on Super Sunday having led the league with 15.5 sacks during the regular season.
But this is a group that has matured dramatically over the course of the season, and it is clearly starting to pay off at just the right time. Atlanta’s defense has been most impressive during the playoffs, surrendering just 20.5 points per game against two of the NFL’s most dangerous offenses in Seattle and Green Bay. They even managed to hold a nuclear-hot Aaron Rodgers and Packers’ offense scoreless in the first half of the NFC championship game.
Second-year pass-rushing dynamo Vic Beasley Jr. has been relatively quiet so far during the postseason, but he is fully capable of wreaking havoc on Super Sunday having led the league with 15.5 sacks during the regular season.
Vegas has weighed all the factors and made the spread Patriots -3.0. Every time the start to move the line to 3.5, the pros come in and push the line back to 3.0.
Perhaps a key piece of evidence is the track record of New England in the Super Bowl. For as dominant as they have been, they have played in very tight games. The winning margin in Super Bowls under Belichick has been 3,3,3,3,4 and 4 points.
The good news for Atlanta – the under dog has covered 13 of the last 16 Super Bowls, winning five of the last eight outright.
For me, the spread is about right. I’m not about to bet against Brady and Belichick nor am I about to bet against the red hot Falcons. So I’m going to go split a mega bet between a couple prop bets. This game is going to be close so I’ll take:
New England wins by 1-6 points +350 for ½ a mega and
Atlanta wins by 1-6 points +450 for another ½ a mega
If the game ends with the margin less than a TD either way, you win.
Perhaps a key piece of evidence is the track record of New England in the Super Bowl. For as dominant as they have been, they have played in very tight games. The winning margin in Super Bowls under Belichick has been 3,3,3,3,4 and 4 points.
The good news for Atlanta – the under dog has covered 13 of the last 16 Super Bowls, winning five of the last eight outright.
For me, the spread is about right. I’m not about to bet against Brady and Belichick nor am I about to bet against the red hot Falcons. So I’m going to go split a mega bet between a couple prop bets. This game is going to be close so I’ll take:
New England wins by 1-6 points +350 for ½ a mega and
Atlanta wins by 1-6 points +450 for another ½ a mega
If the game ends with the margin less than a TD either way, you win.
As far as the over/under, its been set at the highest ever at 58.5. And for good reason. Atlanta is an over machine going 15-2-1 on the over this year. The Falcons averaged 34.4 points per game this year while New England averaged 30.7 per game with Brady under center.
But perhaps the best reason to take the over is Atlanta’s porous red zone defense. It was the worst in the league allowing TDs 72% of the time.
The line has hekd steady at just under 60 points. The fans are betting the over heavy but the pros jump in when the line gets to 69. Normally going with the pros is the way to go but this year the fans are killing the pros so I'll go with the over. Overs are fun. I’ll put a mini mega on it.
But perhaps the best reason to take the over is Atlanta’s porous red zone defense. It was the worst in the league allowing TDs 72% of the time.
The line has hekd steady at just under 60 points. The fans are betting the over heavy but the pros jump in when the line gets to 69. Normally going with the pros is the way to go but this year the fans are killing the pros so I'll go with the over. Overs are fun. I’ll put a mini mega on it.
Here are some other facts I find interesting.
In odd numbered Super Bowls the NFC team is the home team. As such, they get to pick which colored jerseys they will wear. The Falcons picked red leaving the Patriots to wear white. That may have been a mistake. Teams wearing white have won 11 of the last 12 Super Bowls and are 32-18 overall.
By playing Atlanta, New England will have played half of the NFC teams in the Super Bowl.
The Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions have never been to a Super Bowl. But at least Detroit, Jacksonville and Houston have hosted the Super Bowl. Sucks to be Cleveland fan – right Chris.
Brady (7), Big Ben (3) and Peyton Manning (4) have started as the AFC QB in 14 of the last 16 Super Bowls.
There have been 228 punt returns in the Super Bowl. None have ever been returned for a TD.
Matt Ryan will be the first starting QB to wear #2
He is also only the 2nd starting QB from the ACC (Brad Johnson – Florida State and Tampa Bay 2002)
The NFC South is only division to have all four of its teams play in the Super Bowl since 2002
The Patriots have not scored in the first quarter in any of their previous six Super Bowls during the Brady/Belichick era
The Patriots scored 130 points in the first quarter during the regular season, second only to the Falcons (139).
Atlanta and New England tied in fewest giveaways this year with 11.
Atlanta has not won a playoff game away from the ATL since 2002 - yikes.
The last time the Super Bowl was in Houston "wardrobe malfunction" entered the lexicon.
In odd numbered Super Bowls the NFC team is the home team. As such, they get to pick which colored jerseys they will wear. The Falcons picked red leaving the Patriots to wear white. That may have been a mistake. Teams wearing white have won 11 of the last 12 Super Bowls and are 32-18 overall.
By playing Atlanta, New England will have played half of the NFC teams in the Super Bowl.
The Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions have never been to a Super Bowl. But at least Detroit, Jacksonville and Houston have hosted the Super Bowl. Sucks to be Cleveland fan – right Chris.
Brady (7), Big Ben (3) and Peyton Manning (4) have started as the AFC QB in 14 of the last 16 Super Bowls.
There have been 228 punt returns in the Super Bowl. None have ever been returned for a TD.
Matt Ryan will be the first starting QB to wear #2
He is also only the 2nd starting QB from the ACC (Brad Johnson – Florida State and Tampa Bay 2002)
The NFC South is only division to have all four of its teams play in the Super Bowl since 2002
The Patriots have not scored in the first quarter in any of their previous six Super Bowls during the Brady/Belichick era
The Patriots scored 130 points in the first quarter during the regular season, second only to the Falcons (139).
Atlanta and New England tied in fewest giveaways this year with 11.
Atlanta has not won a playoff game away from the ATL since 2002 - yikes.
The last time the Super Bowl was in Houston "wardrobe malfunction" entered the lexicon.
And, of course, being the Super Bowl there are plenty of prop bets.
Here are some of my favorites:
How Long Will it Take Luke Bryan to Sing the US National Anthem?
(From his first to last Note)
Over 127.5 Seconds (120)
Under 127.5 Seconds (120)
Lady Gaga went over last year with this fantastic rendition of the National Anthem which probably earned her the half time show for this years game.
Here are some of my favorites:
How Long Will it Take Luke Bryan to Sing the US National Anthem?
(From his first to last Note)
Over 127.5 Seconds (120)
Under 127.5 Seconds (120)
Lady Gaga went over last year with this fantastic rendition of the National Anthem which probably earned her the half time show for this years game.
Luke has his work cut out for him trying to match that.
Some more prop bets
Will any Player on the Falcons or Patriots roster be seen kneeling during the National Anthem on TV during live broadcast?
Yes +200
No 300
What will be the primary color of Lady Gaga’s hair when she’s first on stage
Blond 2/3
Brown 3/1
Pink 10/1
Field 14/1
Will there be overtime? (Note there has never been an OT in the Super Bowl)
Yes +525,
No -750
Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown:
Yes +180,
No -210
The first score of the game will be:
Touchdown -175
Field Goal or Safety +155
Bruce hates this prop bet
How many times will Trump be mentioned during the broadcast
Over/Under 1½
But he loves this one
How many times will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TV during the broadcast?
Over 1½ +110 (11/10)
Under 1½ -150 (2/3)
And this one
Will any player do the Dirty Bird celebration dance
Yes -130
No +100
And this one too
Will Matty Ice be mentioned during the broadcast
Yes -140
No +110
Here's a list of all the Prop Bets at the Super Book including a bunch of sports cross over bets.
Some more prop bets
Will any Player on the Falcons or Patriots roster be seen kneeling during the National Anthem on TV during live broadcast?
Yes +200
No 300
What will be the primary color of Lady Gaga’s hair when she’s first on stage
Blond 2/3
Brown 3/1
Pink 10/1
Field 14/1
Will there be overtime? (Note there has never been an OT in the Super Bowl)
Yes +525,
No -750
Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown:
Yes +180,
No -210
The first score of the game will be:
Touchdown -175
Field Goal or Safety +155
Bruce hates this prop bet
How many times will Trump be mentioned during the broadcast
Over/Under 1½
But he loves this one
How many times will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TV during the broadcast?
Over 1½ +110 (11/10)
Under 1½ -150 (2/3)
And this one
Will any player do the Dirty Bird celebration dance
Yes -130
No +100
And this one too
Will Matty Ice be mentioned during the broadcast
Yes -140
No +110
Here's a list of all the Prop Bets at the Super Book including a bunch of sports cross over bets.
westgate-super-book-2017.pdf |
The game may be over but there is still one last bet to make
Odds on what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach:
Orange: 7/2
Blue: 15/4
Clear/Water: 4/1
Purple: 6/1
Yellow: 13/2
None: 10/1
Oh and one more over under.
The party this year will be at Dan's place. He made the first invite, then there was a discussion of moving ot to Chris"' and then in a strange twist it looked like it may be moved to Dobby's. Dan asked me what I thought the odds of that happening were. I told him that the over under every year of Dobby hosting a party is 0.5 and the under always wins. It did again. the party finally ended up where it srtarted - Dan's. Should be a good time
Go Falcons!
Odds on what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach:
Orange: 7/2
Blue: 15/4
Clear/Water: 4/1
Purple: 6/1
Yellow: 13/2
None: 10/1
Oh and one more over under.
The party this year will be at Dan's place. He made the first invite, then there was a discussion of moving ot to Chris"' and then in a strange twist it looked like it may be moved to Dobby's. Dan asked me what I thought the odds of that happening were. I told him that the over under every year of Dobby hosting a party is 0.5 and the under always wins. It did again. the party finally ended up where it srtarted - Dan's. Should be a good time
Go Falcons!