
It’s time for America’s biggest baddest favorite party – The Super Bowl!
And not just any Super Bowl – It’s Super Bowl 50.
Has there really been 50 Super Bowls? Doesn’t seem that long ago that we were in the dorm watching Super Bowl X with the boys. Cable hadn’t reached the dorms yet so we tried to tune in a small TV, black and white of course, with an antenna, trying to get it just right.
All right, now… put out your left hand out…that’s it… stand on your right foot….good good…wiggle it…. Perfect! Don’t move! We’ll get you a beer if you get thirsty. The game should be over in a few hours.
I would always go for the NFC even if it was Dallas. The Mooch would always for the AFC. I lost a bunch of wagers to those damn Steelers. You would think the Mooch would use some of the money for toothpaste instead of borrowing ours all the time.
And not just any Super Bowl – It’s Super Bowl 50.
Has there really been 50 Super Bowls? Doesn’t seem that long ago that we were in the dorm watching Super Bowl X with the boys. Cable hadn’t reached the dorms yet so we tried to tune in a small TV, black and white of course, with an antenna, trying to get it just right.
All right, now… put out your left hand out…that’s it… stand on your right foot….good good…wiggle it…. Perfect! Don’t move! We’ll get you a beer if you get thirsty. The game should be over in a few hours.
I would always go for the NFC even if it was Dallas. The Mooch would always for the AFC. I lost a bunch of wagers to those damn Steelers. You would think the Mooch would use some of the money for toothpaste instead of borrowing ours all the time.

Today, the TVs are much, much better, the parties are bigger, the food spreads go well beyond some meat lovers pizza with extra cheese and the adult beverage selection far outpaces “do you want a Miller or a Bud?” making sure to say “Unshaken please.”
As for the game itself? Mrs. Doofus says I’m getting to be a real curmudgeon at times. But I did like it when defenses ruled and the RB were the biggest stars of the game. Now it’s - if you aint winging it you aint bringing it.
Oh well. The games can still be exciting though even if they aren’t played to this purest’s standards. Last year’s was one of the best in a long time.
And this years? It has all the ingredients to be another exciting one too. It’s the number 1 defense (Carolina) vs the number 1 defense (Denver)
Now for those that are going to your party with the intent on mingling, eating drinking and just having fun rather than to actually watch the game – here's a dozen interesting tidbits you can throw out periodically to amaze the host and the other guests.
As for the game itself? Mrs. Doofus says I’m getting to be a real curmudgeon at times. But I did like it when defenses ruled and the RB were the biggest stars of the game. Now it’s - if you aint winging it you aint bringing it.
Oh well. The games can still be exciting though even if they aren’t played to this purest’s standards. Last year’s was one of the best in a long time.
And this years? It has all the ingredients to be another exciting one too. It’s the number 1 defense (Carolina) vs the number 1 defense (Denver)
Now for those that are going to your party with the intent on mingling, eating drinking and just having fun rather than to actually watch the game – here's a dozen interesting tidbits you can throw out periodically to amaze the host and the other guests.

- Not only are the best offense and best defense playing, Carolina and Denver are both number 1 seeds. It’s the third straight year for that to happen.
- It will be the first Super Bowl where two #1 overall draft picks (Cam in 2011 and Peyton in 1998) will play against each other
- It’s also the first time that a #1 draft pick (Cam) will play against the overall #2 pick (Von Miller) from the same draft (2011)
- Cam is only the 3rd Heisman Trophy winning QB to start a Super Bowl (Jim Plunkett and Roger Staubach)

5. And if he wins he will become only the third College National Champion QB to start and win a Super Bowl (Joe Montana and Joe Namath)
6. Cam has accounted for 50 TDs this season – the same number as when he won the Heisman and National Championship.
7. This will be Peyton’s 4th Super Bowl. He’s had a different head coach each time (Tony Dungy, Jim Caldwell, John Fox and Gary Kubiak)
8. At 39 years and 320 days, Peyton Manning will be the oldest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. That surpasses John Elway in 1998 (38 years, 217 days) and himself in 2013 (37 years, 315 days), all of which were played for the Broncos.
9. John Fox was the last head coach of the Panthers before Ron Rivera took over in 2011. Fox was also the last head coach of the Broncos before Gary Kubiak took over in 2015. Not only that, Fox was the head coach for each team's most recent Super Bowl appearance (Denver in 2013 and Carolina in 2003). Chicago fans like that stat. He’s now the coach of the Bears
10. Current Denver HC Gary Kubiak is the first man in NFL history to appear in a Super Bowl for the same team as a player and a coach.
11. If Carolina wins, HC Ron Rivera will become only the fourth person to win the Super Bowl as both a player and a coach (Mike Ditka, Tony Dungy and Tom Flores)
12. The Broncos made the Super Bowl in Wade Phillips' first season as defensive coordinator in 1989. They have made the Super Bowl again in Phillips' first year back as defensive coordinator in 2015.
6. Cam has accounted for 50 TDs this season – the same number as when he won the Heisman and National Championship.
7. This will be Peyton’s 4th Super Bowl. He’s had a different head coach each time (Tony Dungy, Jim Caldwell, John Fox and Gary Kubiak)
8. At 39 years and 320 days, Peyton Manning will be the oldest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. That surpasses John Elway in 1998 (38 years, 217 days) and himself in 2013 (37 years, 315 days), all of which were played for the Broncos.
9. John Fox was the last head coach of the Panthers before Ron Rivera took over in 2011. Fox was also the last head coach of the Broncos before Gary Kubiak took over in 2015. Not only that, Fox was the head coach for each team's most recent Super Bowl appearance (Denver in 2013 and Carolina in 2003). Chicago fans like that stat. He’s now the coach of the Bears
10. Current Denver HC Gary Kubiak is the first man in NFL history to appear in a Super Bowl for the same team as a player and a coach.
11. If Carolina wins, HC Ron Rivera will become only the fourth person to win the Super Bowl as both a player and a coach (Mike Ditka, Tony Dungy and Tom Flores)
12. The Broncos made the Super Bowl in Wade Phillips' first season as defensive coordinator in 1989. They have made the Super Bowl again in Phillips' first year back as defensive coordinator in 2015.

But for those of you who are actually going to watch the game (and good luck with that as people tend to prattle on incessantly making it difficult to hear and follow - so get a seat near the TV) here’s what you need to know:
Starting with the all important spread. It opened at Carolina -3.5 and quickly moved to -5.5. 60-70% of the take was still pouring in for the Panthers so it went up to -6.0 That’s when it started to reverse. About 60% starting coming in for the Broncos so it back tracked a bit to -5.5 where it stands today.
The over/under has held steady around 45.0
Carolina -5.5? That’s a healthy spread. And not a surprise really.
Carolina has been gripping it and ripping it through the playoffs. First they pummel Seattle for a half 31-0 and then hold on to win. Then they just plain blow out Arizona 49-15. They jumped out to an early lead and just kept going.
Starting with the all important spread. It opened at Carolina -3.5 and quickly moved to -5.5. 60-70% of the take was still pouring in for the Panthers so it went up to -6.0 That’s when it started to reverse. About 60% starting coming in for the Broncos so it back tracked a bit to -5.5 where it stands today.
The over/under has held steady around 45.0
Carolina -5.5? That’s a healthy spread. And not a surprise really.
Carolina has been gripping it and ripping it through the playoffs. First they pummel Seattle for a half 31-0 and then hold on to win. Then they just plain blow out Arizona 49-15. They jumped out to an early lead and just kept going.

Meanwhile Denver has been scraping by – all year! They have won eleven games by seven or fewer points. The most ever in the Super Bowl era. Two of the eleven occurred during the playoffs. The came from behind to beat Pittsburgh 23-16 and hung on late to nip New England 20-18.
So why pick Denver to cover?
I’ll keep going back to my favorite statistic – the better defense is 40-9 in Super Bowls. It would have been 41-8 if Seattle had run the damn ball at the goal line last year. Bitter? Me? No why would you say that?
And Denver’s defense is fantastic. It starts up front with Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson. They were able to pressure Brady without blitzing. This forced him to throw quickly into a seven man coverage. Brady was misfiring all night.
It’s that ability to pressure with only four rushing that got Denver the most sacks on the year. Carolina may have destroyed Arizona and Seattle but their pass rush was just middle of the pack. Denver’s is on a whole different level.
With pressure up front, DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller can drop into the passing lanes yet still be able to spy on Cam if he decides to take off.
Denver has throttled mobile quarterbacks. The number of rushing TDs allowed all year to QBs? How about zero, nada, none. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Alex Smith, none of them made it to the end zone.
And forget about establishing the run, the Broncos allowed only 3.3 yards per carry, best in the league.
No doubt, Denver’s defense carried Manning all year. He is a shell of his former self. But while his arm has gone limp, he still has the smarts to dissect a defense. And in a one game scenario, his possible last game scenario, he may just leave it all out there and go out a winner. Just like his GM John Elway.
So why pick Denver to cover?
I’ll keep going back to my favorite statistic – the better defense is 40-9 in Super Bowls. It would have been 41-8 if Seattle had run the damn ball at the goal line last year. Bitter? Me? No why would you say that?
And Denver’s defense is fantastic. It starts up front with Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson. They were able to pressure Brady without blitzing. This forced him to throw quickly into a seven man coverage. Brady was misfiring all night.
It’s that ability to pressure with only four rushing that got Denver the most sacks on the year. Carolina may have destroyed Arizona and Seattle but their pass rush was just middle of the pack. Denver’s is on a whole different level.
With pressure up front, DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller can drop into the passing lanes yet still be able to spy on Cam if he decides to take off.
Denver has throttled mobile quarterbacks. The number of rushing TDs allowed all year to QBs? How about zero, nada, none. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Alex Smith, none of them made it to the end zone.
And forget about establishing the run, the Broncos allowed only 3.3 yards per carry, best in the league.
No doubt, Denver’s defense carried Manning all year. He is a shell of his former self. But while his arm has gone limp, he still has the smarts to dissect a defense. And in a one game scenario, his possible last game scenario, he may just leave it all out there and go out a winner. Just like his GM John Elway.

Why pick Carolina to cover? –
Maybe they can establish the running game. They’ve done it all year. In fact they have rushed for over 100 yards every game this year. Every..single..game. An amazing stat for a post 70’s team. They did it against Seattle (1st in fewest total rushing yards allowed) and Arizona (6th) they should be able to do it against Denver.
If Denver decides to blitz in order to pressure Cam, they better get there fast. When blitzed, Cam has thrown 19 TDs against only two picks.
And while Rodgers et al are mobile that’s not in the same zip code as what Cam can do. He has as many rushing TDs (10) as picks. His 636 rushing yards were 2nd on the team and 31st in the league.
The Panthers have shown they can score in a hurry. They have 18 TD drives of 5 plays or less – the most in the NFL. That has been Carolina’s MO this year. Score quick and let the other team play catch up.
And when they do, Carolina is very opportunistic. They led the league with a +20 turnover margin. They were also first in picks (24) and fumble recoveries (15). Carolina was one of only two teams that had more picks than TD passes allowed this season (Cincinnati)
Which plays into Denver’s Achilles heel. They turn the ball over coughing it up 31 times, 3rd worst overall. And the turnovers rest firmly on Mannings shoulders. Despite playing in only seven full games this year – he had 17 INTs the 2nd most in the NFL. That trend continues in Super Bowls. Manning has not thrown multiple TDs in a SB. He has 3 TDs and 4 picks in four games.
Maybe they can establish the running game. They’ve done it all year. In fact they have rushed for over 100 yards every game this year. Every..single..game. An amazing stat for a post 70’s team. They did it against Seattle (1st in fewest total rushing yards allowed) and Arizona (6th) they should be able to do it against Denver.
If Denver decides to blitz in order to pressure Cam, they better get there fast. When blitzed, Cam has thrown 19 TDs against only two picks.
And while Rodgers et al are mobile that’s not in the same zip code as what Cam can do. He has as many rushing TDs (10) as picks. His 636 rushing yards were 2nd on the team and 31st in the league.
The Panthers have shown they can score in a hurry. They have 18 TD drives of 5 plays or less – the most in the NFL. That has been Carolina’s MO this year. Score quick and let the other team play catch up.
And when they do, Carolina is very opportunistic. They led the league with a +20 turnover margin. They were also first in picks (24) and fumble recoveries (15). Carolina was one of only two teams that had more picks than TD passes allowed this season (Cincinnati)
Which plays into Denver’s Achilles heel. They turn the ball over coughing it up 31 times, 3rd worst overall. And the turnovers rest firmly on Mannings shoulders. Despite playing in only seven full games this year – he had 17 INTs the 2nd most in the NFL. That trend continues in Super Bowls. Manning has not thrown multiple TDs in a SB. He has 3 TDs and 4 picks in four games.

OK - So who you gonna pick? –
This game will likely play out one of two ways. Either Denver contains Cam, keeps it close and pulls out a late victory like New England last year
Or Carolina scores quickly on the way to a rout like Seattle two years ago.
But before I make my pick some interesting betting trends
Quarterbacks making their Super Bowl debut (Cam) have won four straight over quarterbacks with some Super Bowl experience (Peyton). Peyton Manning's two Super Bowl losses came against quarterbacks making their debut. Manning won his debut. Advantage – CAROLINA
Denver has been the underdog only 4 times this season. They covered all four games. Advantage – DENVER
There have been 17 Super Bowls where the spread has ranged from 3.0 to 6.5, and the favorites are 12-5 ATS in those games. The NFC is 5-0 in those games. Advantage – CAROLINA
Denver loves the Golden State. They have won and covered in 10 straight games. Advantage – DENVER
In the last 11 meetings between No. 1 seeds, the favorite is 8-3 ATS. Advantage – CAROLINA
Carolina scored 49 points last week – part of the reason why the spread is so high. The flip side is that teams that have scored 40 or more points in the playoffs are 4-22 against the spread the following week. Advantage – DENVER
So if you like a team there is a stat to back you up.
After going back and forth i've decided. I’m going to go with Carolina. They are built like the Seattle team that destroyed them in Super Bowl 48 having a strong running game designed around a dual-threat quarterback and strong defense.
The Panther are going to get up early, forcing Manning to play catch up where he starts tossing picks. His brain is still there but his arm left him a long time ago. I’ll lay the points
Carolina -5.5 vs Denver is the pick. Make it a Mega Bet. Last chance of the year.
This game will likely play out one of two ways. Either Denver contains Cam, keeps it close and pulls out a late victory like New England last year
Or Carolina scores quickly on the way to a rout like Seattle two years ago.
But before I make my pick some interesting betting trends
Quarterbacks making their Super Bowl debut (Cam) have won four straight over quarterbacks with some Super Bowl experience (Peyton). Peyton Manning's two Super Bowl losses came against quarterbacks making their debut. Manning won his debut. Advantage – CAROLINA
Denver has been the underdog only 4 times this season. They covered all four games. Advantage – DENVER
There have been 17 Super Bowls where the spread has ranged from 3.0 to 6.5, and the favorites are 12-5 ATS in those games. The NFC is 5-0 in those games. Advantage – CAROLINA
Denver loves the Golden State. They have won and covered in 10 straight games. Advantage – DENVER
In the last 11 meetings between No. 1 seeds, the favorite is 8-3 ATS. Advantage – CAROLINA
Carolina scored 49 points last week – part of the reason why the spread is so high. The flip side is that teams that have scored 40 or more points in the playoffs are 4-22 against the spread the following week. Advantage – DENVER
So if you like a team there is a stat to back you up.
After going back and forth i've decided. I’m going to go with Carolina. They are built like the Seattle team that destroyed them in Super Bowl 48 having a strong running game designed around a dual-threat quarterback and strong defense.
The Panther are going to get up early, forcing Manning to play catch up where he starts tossing picks. His brain is still there but his arm left him a long time ago. I’ll lay the points
Carolina -5.5 vs Denver is the pick. Make it a Mega Bet. Last chance of the year.

How about the over under?
I was leaning hard to the under. But then I remembered how Denver got a late meaning TD against Seattle two years back to go over.
Also the over has gone 19-12 over the last 31 Super Bowls. And Denver has gone 6-0 on the over in their Super Bowls.
Naaaah – I’m sticking with the under. This game seems like a 31-10 type game.
Carolina vs Denver under 45.0 is my pick. Make it a Mega bet too.
Of course it wouldn’t be a Super Bowl without tons of fun prop bets. Silly fun bets for sure but they are big time in Vegas. It’s estimated that $4.2 billion will be wagered on the Super Bowl this year. About $1.0 billion of that will be on prop bets.
Some of my favorites are:
The betting starts before even the game kicks off
How Long Will it Take Lady Gag to Sing the U.S. National Anthem?
(From first note starts until she completes saying Brave)
Over/Under 137.5 Seconds (120)
Will the referee redo the coin toss? Yes - 20/1.
I did a double take when I first saw this one.
Then I found out that Clete Blakemen is the ref. You remember Clete. He’s the guy that flipped the coin that didn’t flip for the Green Bay Arizona OT.
CBS will be broadcasting the game which means there are bets on the telecast too like:
And if he does wear one, will it be a solid color (+120) or some other design (-163)?
Will Jim Nantz will wear a tie or not (Yes -4,000/No +1,200)
His analyst is the knuckle head Phil Simms. As one wag said, I’m surprised he can dress himself but if he does will he sport a sweater (Yes +350/No -600)
I was leaning hard to the under. But then I remembered how Denver got a late meaning TD against Seattle two years back to go over.
Also the over has gone 19-12 over the last 31 Super Bowls. And Denver has gone 6-0 on the over in their Super Bowls.
Naaaah – I’m sticking with the under. This game seems like a 31-10 type game.
Carolina vs Denver under 45.0 is my pick. Make it a Mega bet too.
Of course it wouldn’t be a Super Bowl without tons of fun prop bets. Silly fun bets for sure but they are big time in Vegas. It’s estimated that $4.2 billion will be wagered on the Super Bowl this year. About $1.0 billion of that will be on prop bets.
Some of my favorites are:
The betting starts before even the game kicks off
How Long Will it Take Lady Gag to Sing the U.S. National Anthem?
(From first note starts until she completes saying Brave)
Over/Under 137.5 Seconds (120)
Will the referee redo the coin toss? Yes - 20/1.
I did a double take when I first saw this one.
Then I found out that Clete Blakemen is the ref. You remember Clete. He’s the guy that flipped the coin that didn’t flip for the Green Bay Arizona OT.
CBS will be broadcasting the game which means there are bets on the telecast too like:
And if he does wear one, will it be a solid color (+120) or some other design (-163)?
Will Jim Nantz will wear a tie or not (Yes -4,000/No +1,200)
His analyst is the knuckle head Phil Simms. As one wag said, I’m surprised he can dress himself but if he does will he sport a sweater (Yes +350/No -600)

At halftime you can bet on
Which song will Coldplay play first during the halftime show?
Will "Left Shark" make an appearance on stage during the Super Bowl halftime show?
Yes 15/1
Which song will Coldplay play first during the halftime show?
- Adventure of a Lifetime 2/1
- Fix You 7/2
- A Sky Full of Stars 9/2
- Viva la Vida 5/1
- Clocks 15/2
- Speed of Sound 9/1
- Head Full of Dreams 10/1
- Paradise 10/1
- Black 3/2
- Gold/Brown 5/2
- White 11/4
- Silver/Grey 19/4
- Any Other Color 7/1
Will "Left Shark" make an appearance on stage during the Super Bowl halftime show?
Yes 15/1

And the annual end of game prop bet
What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach?
And the ever popular cross sport betting. Here’s one I like
WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
Arsenal Goals (-130) or Peyton Manning TD passes (+110)
Go Gunners!
Here's about 400 prop bets posted by the Westgate Super Book (the old Las Vegas Hilton)
What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach?
- Orange 5/4
- Blue 3/1
- Clear 4/1
- Yellow 4/1
- Red 6/1
- Green 10/1
- Purple 10/1
And the ever popular cross sport betting. Here’s one I like
WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
Arsenal Goals (-130) or Peyton Manning TD passes (+110)
Go Gunners!
Here's about 400 prop bets posted by the Westgate Super Book (the old Las Vegas Hilton)

westgate-super-book-2016.pdf |
So get a friend to host, talk ‘em into serving your favorite beverage, get a good seat near the TV, kick back and enjoy what should be a good game